User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.4995 seconds
58 querie(s) executed
|
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
| ||||||||
Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Monday, November 22, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay RaysThe Rays are ######.
OK, that’s a stretching a bit for the shock factor, unless you fill in those 6 character with a non-expletive, like decent. We all know that one of the 362 Rules of Trite Writing is that when you say the effect of something cannot be overstated the writer in question will immediately overstate the effect of something.
So, let’s try to skirt the rule and instead say that you almost cannot overstate the effect of the possible relief pitcher losses by the Rays. 6 Ray relievers are free agents and 5 of those 6 didn’t suck in 2010. Here are the Five Alive! relievers for Tampa Bay this past season:
While the Rays would have to replace a lot of these innings anyway, thanks to the vagaries of regression, that’s still a good chunk of a bullpen to replace (about 2/3 of relief stints were by these 5 pitchers). They also have a weighted average leverage index of 1.26, so on bottom-line win value, you’re essentially losing a Cy Young Award plus some valuable change.
The Rays have done a good job scrounging on spare parts to make bullpens, but there’s a limit to how much you can do - it’s hard to replace most of a bullpen in a single offeason by this method and it’s hard to get results like 2010.
All is not lost, however - the team has enough pitching and defense and Evan Longoria to keep from being a bad team, but if the Rays follow through with their intention to cut >$10 million in payroll from 2010, they are probably the 3rd-best team in the AL East. It’s a very ugly free agent market and the chances of someone that can contribute doing a Bobby Abreu and falling through the cracks this winter are fairly slim. Right now, I can’t see Tampa Bay being better than an 85-90 win team, short of some surprises.
The team will survive in the long-term thanks to the team churning out pitching faster than Bravo cranks out wealthy-skankertainment, but Crawford + most of the bullpen are losses hard to absorb in a single offseason. The floor for the Rays is pretty high because at every position, they have ample depth of non-terrible players, but their 2011 ceiling is also relatively low.
Next up: Royals
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Evan Longoria R 3B 25 .279 .362 .504 154 573 92 160 40 4 27 101 72 140 12 3 132 Carl Crawford L LF 29 .296 .345 .458 148 585 95 173 28 11 15 77 43 94 44 12 115 Ben Zobrist B RF 30 .256 .358 .428 129 446 67 114 23 3 16 65 72 91 16 3 112 Carlos Pena L 1B 33 .218 .348 .463 129 441 67 96 19 1 29 82 83 154 3 1 117 B.J. Upton R CF 26 .252 .343 .422 154 559 89 141 36 4 17 66 77 165 43 14 106 Dan Johnson L DH 31 .239 .349 .435 122 423 58 101 17 0 22 71 72 98 1 0 111 Desmond Jennings R CF 24 .268 .339 .378 126 452 75 121 24 7 4 35 45 78 36 6 94 Jason Bartlett R SS 31 .275 .340 .383 138 491 70 135 27 4 6 49 44 84 19 7 96 Hank Blalock L 3B 30 .254 .305 .432 78 287 37 73 14 2 11 42 20 62 3 1 97 Matthew Joyce L RF 26 .236 .334 .420 132 436 58 103 26 3 16 60 63 127 6 6 103 Stephen Vogt L DH 26 .282 .332 .381 88 312 38 88 18 2 3 35 23 47 3 1 93 John Jaso L C 27 .256 .347 .363 118 391 53 100 18 3 6 44 52 55 3 0 93 Brad Hawpe L RF 32 .227 .331 .401 123 401 48 91 21 2 15 59 61 136 1 2 97 Leslie Anderson L 1B 29 .284 .326 .375 102 408 38 116 20 1 5 34 19 67 2 2 89 Willy Aybar B DH 28 .247 .324 .391 104 304 31 75 15 1 9 45 33 57 1 1 93 Sean Rodriguez R 2B 26 .232 .308 .405 134 440 64 102 22 3 16 54 38 137 10 3 91 Kelly Shoppach R C 31 .217 .316 .400 81 235 31 51 13 0 10 33 25 95 0 0 92 Elliot Johnson B SS 27 .251 .303 .377 110 419 49 105 18 4 9 41 29 109 18 5 83 Chris Richard L 1B 37 .230 .302 .394 107 396 44 91 21 1 14 50 37 105 1 0 87 Gabe Kapler R RF 35 .234 .303 .389 75 167 22 39 9 1 5 24 15 32 2 1 86 Reid Brignac L 2B 25 .254 .299 .383 139 472 55 120 25 3 10 54 29 106 6 5 83 Rocco Baldelli R DH 29 .234 .288 .383 47 141 17 33 6 0 5 19 8 39 2 0 80 Justin Ruggiano R RF 29 .241 .299 .361 119 449 55 108 22 1 10 50 33 143 18 5 78 Dioner Navarro B C 27 .245 .308 .353 114 371 38 91 19 0 7 39 31 57 3 2 79 Joe Dillon R 2B 35 .233 .304 .338 84 275 37 64 12 1 5 30 25 47 3 1 74 Matthew Sweeney L 3B 23 .223 .281 .341 94 346 33 77 18 1 7 40 27 106 2 0 68 Jose Lobaton B C 26 .222 .287 .337 88 297 28 66 13 0 7 30 27 87 1 0 68 Fernando Perez R RF 28 .230 .290 .311 105 370 48 85 10 4 4 24 30 110 23 8 63 John Matulia L RF 24 .242 .281 .342 131 480 42 116 21 6 5 38 24 131 6 6 68 Kyeong Kang L LF 23 .239 .305 .327 110 376 36 90 21 3 2 29 34 116 5 7 71 Angel Chavez R 3B 29 .243 .279 .330 120 448 39 109 19 1 6 43 21 69 4 3 64 J.J. Furmaniak R 2B 31 .225 .291 .316 105 377 44 85 15 2 5 31 31 87 9 5 64 Tim Beckham R SS 21 .239 .302 .323 154 603 65 144 29 5 4 57 51 185 19 19 70 Rashad Eldridge B CF 29 .225 .293 .295 117 448 50 101 16 3 3 34 41 99 12 6 60 Alvin Colina R C 29 .210 .264 .338 62 219 19 46 10 0 6 31 14 68 1 1 62 Nevin Ashley R C 26 .210 .277 .288 110 396 37 83 12 2 5 34 30 118 5 5 53 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Evan Longoria EX/76 Carl Crawford EX/76 Ben Zobrist AV/120 AV/79 AV/114 AV/139 VG/62 VG/62 Carlos Pena AV/91 B.J. Upton AV/127 Dan Johnson AV/99 FR/104 Desmond Jennings VG/128 VG/99 VG/105 Jason Bartlett AV/109 Hank Blalock AV/121 PO/100 Matthew Joyce AV/113 FR/96 AV/128 Stephen Vogt FR FR/144 FR/72 John Jaso FR Brad Hawpe AV/110 PO/171 Leslie Anderson AV/130 FR/139 Willy Aybar AV/97 AV/143 AV/111 Sean Rodriguez VG/114 VG/101 AV/112 AV/123 AV/111 FR/111 AV/111 Kelly Shoppach AV Elliot Johnson AV/157 VG/128 FR/132 AV/117 AV/134 Chris Richard PO/153 PO/134 Gabe Kapler AV/95 FR/112 VG/96 Reid Brignac AV/116 AV/114 Rocco Baldelli FR/112 AV/186 Justin Ruggiano VG/128 FR/69 AV/116 Dioner Navarro VG Joe Dillon FR/128 FR/131 PO/110 Matthew Sweeney FR/197 Jose Lobaton AV Fernando Perez VG/100 VG/166 VG/144 John Matulia FR/68 FR/119 FR/109 Kyeong Kang AV/132 FR/112 VG/206 Angel Chavez AV/122 FR/120 AV/80 PO/116 J.J. Furmaniak AV/92 VG/105 AV/113 Tim Beckham FR/169 Rashad Eldridge VA/101 AV/111 VG/112 Alvin Colina VG Nevin Ashley VG Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ David Price L 25 3.48 16 9 33 33 201.7 176 78 19 79 180 121 Jeremy Hellickson R 24 3.58 10 6 24 24 135.7 126 54 11 47 119 118 Matt Garza R 27 3.84 14 9 34 33 208.7 194 89 25 67 171 110 Jeff Niemann R 28 4.33 10 9 31 29 170.3 166 82 23 62 128 97 James Shields R 29 4.38 13 12 34 34 215.7 232 105 30 48 186 96 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Jake McGee L 24 4.48 4 4 24 17 72.3 75 36 6 34 63 94 Wade Davis R 25 4.52 12 11 32 32 177.3 178 89 23 74 127 93 Andy Sonnanstine R 28 4.70 7 7 36 17 130.3 144 68 16 35 84 90 Matthew Moore L 22 4.79 8 9 27 27 124.0 121 66 12 79 119 88 Nick Barnese R 22 4.85 6 7 20 19 98.3 110 53 9 40 57 87 Alex Cobb R 23 4.94 6 7 25 24 118.3 137 65 12 45 84 85 Aneury Rodriguez R 23 5.15 7 9 29 23 124.0 134 71 17 54 81 82 Joseph Cruz R 22 5.16 7 10 25 25 120.3 144 69 11 51 74 82 Alexander Torres L 23 5.48 7 11 29 28 139.7 153 85 14 99 109 77 Jeremy Hall R 27 5.73 6 10 25 25 124.0 149 79 15 62 67 73 David Newmann L 26 5.78 5 9 24 24 113.7 140 73 12 61 64 73 Bobby Livingston L 28 5.97 4 9 25 20 116.0 154 77 15 42 52 71 Albert Suarez R 21 6.00 2 3 8 8 27.0 31 18 4 15 15 70 Heath Phillips L 29 6.09 5 9 29 20 116.7 145 79 19 49 59 69 Virgil Vasquez R 29 6.12 5 10 22 20 107.3 136 73 21 31 58 69 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Rafael Soriano R 31 2.91 3 1 56 0 52.7 41 17 5 16 61 145 Grant Balfour R 33 3.05 4 2 63 0 62.0 48 21 5 25 73 138 J.P. Howell L 28 3.12 5 2 53 0 60.7 47 21 6 28 69 135 Dan Wheeler R 33 3.73 5 3 65 0 50.7 45 21 7 15 47 113 Winston Abreu R 34 3.74 2 2 50 0 55.3 48 23 5 26 53 113 Zachary Quate R 23 3.88 2 1 39 0 51.0 49 22 4 20 43 109 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Randy Choate L 35 3.97 3 2 80 0 45.3 43 20 4 18 38 106 Chad Qualls R 32 4.01 4 3 64 0 60.7 62 27 6 17 54 105 R.J. Swindle L 27 4.04 3 2 43 0 55.7 55 25 6 17 48 104 Joe Bateman R 31 4.23 4 3 50 1 66.0 65 31 5 34 48 100 Lance Cormier R 30 4.40 4 3 58 0 73.7 78 36 7 33 42 96 Mike Ekstrom R 27 4.50 4 4 54 1 74.0 77 37 7 29 51 94 Matt Gorgen R 24 4.56 3 3 45 0 53.3 51 27 5 33 44 92 Ramon Ortiz R 38 4.81 3 3 22 7 63.7 68 34 9 23 48 88 Dale Thayer R 30 4.93 2 3 53 0 65.7 77 36 6 26 41 85 Matt Bush R 25 5.00 0 0 6 0 9.0 9 5 1 4 8 84 Ryan Reid R 26 5.10 3 4 47 0 67.0 74 38 5 43 46 83 Dane De La Rosa R 28 5.15 5 7 51 0 71.7 85 41 6 35 51 82 Darin Downs L 26 5.34 6 9 39 9 94.3 111 56 12 43 67 79 Paul Phillips R 27 5.46 3 4 41 2 59.3 69 36 8 28 38 77 Brian Baker R 28 5.74 5 8 38 11 94.0 112 60 13 46 52 73 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Evan Longoria .270 .347 .473 2586 9725 1427 2621 645 56 408 1586 1101 2074 190 119 Carl Crawford .291 .335 .443 2444 9788 1488 2853 427 180 231 1200 615 1427 686 107 B.J. Upton .248 .335 .400 2327 8504 1272 2113 518 44 228 957 1093 2262 492 98 Carlos Pena .231 .343 .469 1685 5765 851 1330 265 26 352 1014 926 1769 37 116 Ben Zobrist .250 .346 .409 1172 4052 570 1012 199 29 130 564 603 757 122 103 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Matt Garza 153 131 0 4.06 403 400 2491 2388 1123 320 838 2005 105 David Price 195 120 0 3.61 399 396 2423 2128 973 253 977 2193 119 James Shields 132 124 0 4.32 354 351 2265 2407 1087 312 511 1881 98 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Evan Longoria 3B 66% 23% 8% 3% 0% Scott Rolen Ryan Zimmerman David Wright Carl Crawford LF 41% 31% 13% 9% 6% Lou Brock Kenny Lofton Andy Van Slyke Ben Zobrist RF 20% 31% 20% 17% 11% Jim Russell Armando Rios Trot Nixon Carlos Pena 1B 16% 29% 21% 22% 12% John Mayberry Jay Buhner Matt Stairs B.J. Upton CF 36% 25% 23% 11% 4% Oddibe McDowell Pat Tabler Jim Landis Dan Johnson DH 8% 22% 23% 31% 16% John Mayberry Graham Koonce Bill Melton Desmond Jennings CF 29% 26% 26% 13% 5% Marquis Grissom Melky Cabrera Shannon Stewart Jason Bartlett SS 25% 27% 28% 15% 5% Julio Lugo Bobby Adams Jim Davenport Hank Blalock 3B 6% 19% 25% 26% 25% Scott Seabol Rick Schu Tyler Houston Matthew Joyce RF 4% 15% 18% 25% 39% Bob Skube Carlos Pena Ryan Langerhans Stephen Vogt DH 0% 4% 11% 35% 50% Ryan Sweeney Pete LaCock Broderick Perkins John Jaso C 9% 27% 28% 26% 10% Marv Foley Clay Hill Chris Cannizzaro Brad Hawpe RF 2% 10% 13% 22% 52% Brian Daubach Bruce Campbell Mark Leonard Leslie Anderson 1B 0% 2% 6% 27% 65% Scott Livingstone Carlos Rivera Jim Eppard Willy Aybar DH 1% 4% 9% 30% 57% Kelly Snider Jose Tolentino Todd Betts Sean Rodriguez 2B 10% 14% 20% 27% 29% Bobby Smith Randy Velarde Ian Desmond Kelly Shoppach C 13% 26% 24% 24% 13% Kelly Stinnett Jason LaRue Mike Rose Elliot Johnson SS 9% 14% 28% 27% 22% Manuel Lee Royce Clayton Dave Concepcion Chris Richard 1B 1% 4% 6% 20% 68% Dave Parker Lee Stevens Willie Horton Gabe Kapler RF 1% 2% 4% 10% 84% Mike Devereaux Emil Brown Pedro Swann Reid Brignac 2B 3% 4% 8% 20% 65% Juan Melo Jose Castro Jimmy Bloodworth Rocco Baldelli DH 0% 0% 2% 11% 87% Juan Richardson Stan Holmes Alberto Concepcion Justin Ruggiano RF 0% 1% 4% 13% 82% Shawn Garrett Chris Aguila Lyle Mouton Dioner Navarro C 2% 5% 13% 32% 48% Raul Chavez Walt McKeel Yadier Molina Joe Dillon 2B 3% 4% 7% 15% 72% Rico Rossy Rene Gonzales Keith Ginter Matthew Sweeney 3B 1% 1% 3% 7% 89% Jamie Taylor Greg David Chad Spann Jose Lobaton C 1% 2% 5% 17% 75% Rob Bowen Gilberto Reyes Dusty Brown Fernando Perez RF 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% Andres Torres Cecil Espy Tony Triplett John Matulia RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Mike Neill Shawn Jeter Victor Mata Kyeong Kang LF 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% Angelo Cuevas Rick Sofield Dan Ortmeier Angel Chavez 3B 0% 1% 1% 3% 95% Pete Rose Jr. Carlo Colombino Tom Veryzer J.J. Furmaniak 2B 1% 1% 1% 4% 93% Doug Baker Ronnie Merrill Ray Holbert Tim Beckham SS 2% 3% 3% 4% 88% Ross Jones Juan Delgado Josh Barfield Rashad Eldridge CF 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% Doug Baker Keith Smith Doug Clark Alvin Colina C 1% 2% 3% 9% 86% Chris Curry Dane Sardinha Heath Hayes Nevin Ashley C 0% 0% 1% 2% 97% Tony Eusebio Henry Mercedes Chris Petersen Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Rafael Soriano RP 73% 24% 3% Tom Henke Trevor Hoffman Mel Rojas Grant Balfour RP 71% 25% 4% Eric Plunk Scot Shields Troy Percival J.P. Howell RP 63% 32% 5% Mitch Williams Will Ohman Mike Gonzalez David Price SP 78% 22% 0% Chris Nabholz Barry Zito Shawn Estes Jeremy Hellickson SP 68% 31% 1% Pedro Astacio Brad Penny Bob Welch Dan Wheeler RP 27% 48% 25% Jeff Reardon Jeff Brantley Mike Trombley Winston Abreu RP 31% 53% 17% Tim Stoddard Rich DeLucia Jose DeLeon Matt Garza SP 48% 48% 4% Pete Smith Brett Tomko Cal Eldred Zachary Quate RP 31% 47% 22% Alejandro Pena Brian Fisher Jeff Innis Randy Choate RP 21% 49% 30% Mike Magnante Mark Guthrie Tony Fossas Chad Qualls RP 20% 50% 30% Doug Jones Bruce Walton Rod Beck R.J. Swindle RP 18% 52% 30% Tom Gorman Gabe White Derek Lilliquist Joe Bateman RP 13% 48% 39% Tony Fiore Bill Zuber Dennis Higgins Jeff Niemann SP 18% 62% 20% Rick Helling Pete Smith Luis Leal James Shields SP 16% 62% 22% Jose Lima David Bush Matt Wise Lance Cormier RP 9% 40% 51% Tony Fiore Rick Greene Jose Santiago Jake McGee SP 22% 48% 31% Bill Everly Manny Parra Brian Looney Mike Ekstrom RP 6% 45% 49% Mark Brown Matt Ginter Daryl Irvine Wade Davis SP 13% 59% 28% Andy McGaffigan Kevin McGehee Salomon Torres Matt Gorgen RP 13% 40% 47% Brad Voyles Brian Bowles David Aardsma Andy Sonnanstine SP 3% 34% 63% Eric Knott Jeff Ballard Joe Crawford Matthew Moore SP 7% 47% 46% Al Leiter Randy Johnson Dennis Rasmussen Ramon Ortiz RP 10% 34% 56% Steve Sparks Terry Clark Jack Scott Nick Barnese SP 9% 42% 49% Ed Wojna Jake Joseph Clemente Nunez Dale Thayer RP 3% 26% 71% Steve Comer Andy Mitchell Jose Santiago Alex Cobb SP 5% 43% 51% Sergio Mitre Mike Mason Dave Weathers Matt Bush RP 32% 20% 48% NA NA NA Ryan Reid RP 2% 23% 75% Alan Mills Heathcliff Slocumb Ryan Henderson Dane De La Rosa RP 1% 19% 80% Jose Segura Heathcliff Slocumb Dwight Bernard Aneury Rodriguez SP 2% 26% 72% Tim Mauser Rob Woodward Steve Farr Joseph Cruz SP 3% 33% 63% Clemente Nunez Ed Wojna Jake Joseph Darin Downs RP 0% 11% 89% Jeff Granger Matt Perisho Dennis Powell Paul Phillips RP 1% 13% 86% Greg Bartley Andy Shipman William Vaughan Alexander Torres SP 1% 17% 83% Luis Martinez Dan Chergey Harold Allen Jeremy Hall SP 0% 10% 89% Ben Fritz Steve Sparks Hatuey Mendoza Brian Baker RP 0% 4% 96% Timothy Smith Lee Rodney Chris Bootcheck David Newmann SP 0% 8% 92% Mike Wodnicki Chris George Greg Kubes Heath Rollins SP 0% 2% 98% Jim Gutierrez Ron Rightnowar Nick McCurdy Bobby Livingston SP 0% 4% 96% Brian Shouse Dave Otto Lee Guetterman Albert Suarez SP 5% 16% 79% Brian Edmondson Steve Matcuk Keith Bucktrot Heath Phillips SP 0% 3% 96% Benj Sampson Brian Abraham Huck Flener Virgil Vasquez SP 0% 5% 95% Steve Ellsworth Glenn Abbott Jose Lima Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Evan Longoria 20% 31% 52% 38% 5% 43% 32% 4% Carl Crawford 44% 14% 19% 1% 61% 3% 10% 76% Ben Zobrist 5% 26% 5% 0% 1% 1% 6% 5% Carlos Pena 0% 19% 23% 0% 0% 44% 12% 0% B.J. Upton 2% 11% 3% 17% 2% 4% 2% 89% Dan Johnson 1% 19% 8% 0% 0% 11% 6% 0% Desmond Jennings 10% 11% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 68% Jason Bartlett 17% 11% 1% 1% 4% 0% 1% 11% Hank Blalock 6% 2% 8% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Matthew Joyce 0% 7% 4% 0% 2% 2% 1% 1% Stephen Vogt 27% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% John Jaso 5% 15% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Brad Hawpe 0% 6% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Leslie Anderson 28% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Willy Aybar 3% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Sean Rodriguez 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% Kelly Shoppach 0% 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Elliot Johnson 3% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 6% Chris Richard 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Gabe Kapler 3% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Reid Brignac 3% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% Rocco Baldelli 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Justin Ruggiano 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% Dioner Navarro 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Joe Dillon 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Matthew Sweeney 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jose Lobaton 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Fernando Perez 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 13% John Matulia 1% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% Kyeong Kang 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Angel Chavez 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% J.J. Furmaniak 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Tim Beckham 0% 0% 0% 4% 10% 0% 0% 7% Rashad Eldridge 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Alvin Colina 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Rafael Soriano 73% 96% 96% 16% 80% Grant Balfour 63% 95% 97% 1% 82% J.P. Howell 55% 93% 95% 0% 75% David Price 33% 94% 50% 0% 78% Jeremy Hellickson 31% 88% 43% 2% 87% Dan Wheeler 27% 68% 59% 17% 42% Winston Abreu 31% 78% 69% 0% 70% Matt Garza 12% 79% 21% 2% 41% Zachary Quate 23% 72% 27% 2% 86% Randy Choate 21% 62% 34% 3% 73% Chad Qualls 15% 63% 43% 29% 77% R.J. Swindle 18% 63% 33% 15% 54% Joe Bateman 10% 55% 8% 1% 86% Jeff Niemann 2% 45% 6% 0% 30% James Shields 2% 41% 33% 52% 23% Lance Cormier 7% 38% 2% 1% 72% Jake McGee 7% 45% 42% 1% 82% Mike Ekstrom 4% 37% 2% 1% 69% Wade Davis 1% 35% 3% 0% 37% Matt Gorgen 9% 45% 21% 0% 73% Andy Sonnanstine 3% 26% 4% 25% 37% Matthew Moore 1% 22% 70% 0% 72% Ramon Ortiz 10% 38% 19% 10% 46% Nick Barnese 1% 22% 0% 0% 74% Dale Thayer 2% 19% 1% 2% 72% Alex Cobb 0% 16% 3% 1% 64% Matt Bush 32% 52% 34% 28% 67% Ryan Reid 1% 15% 3% 0% 86% Dane De La Rosa 1% 11% 3% 0% 86% Aneury Rodriguez 0% 8% 1% 0% 27% Joseph Cruz 0% 10% 0% 0% 75% Darin Downs 0% 7% 2% 0% 52% Paul Phillips 0% 10% 1% 0% 51% Alexander Torres 0% 3% 9% 0% 77% Jeremy Hall 0% 1% 0% 0% 45% Brian Baker 0% 2% 1% 0% 29% David Newmann 0% 1% 0% 0% 64% Heath Rollins 0% 1% 0% 0% 20% Bobby Livingston 0% 1% 0% 2% 43% Albert Suarez 1% 9% 1% 1% 38% Heath Phillips 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% Virgil Vasquez 0% 1% 0% 16% 5% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 22, 2010 at 07:36 PM | 37 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News: |
BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot Topics2012 ZiPS Projections, Final Edition
(23 - 11:21am, May 31) Last: craigsaboe 2012 ZiPS/RBI Baseball (20 - 10:58am, May 03) Last: tjans 2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1 (62 - 4:38pm, Apr 10) Last: nemodomi 2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A's (69 - 5:57am, Apr 10) Last: Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz 2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals (31 - 1:51pm, Mar 23) Last: hokieneer Pirates - Acquire Burnett (10 - 11:09pm, Feb 20) Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) 2012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates (41 - 10:02am, Feb 20) Last: Dangerous Dean 2012 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins (31 - 8:53pm, Feb 17) Last: A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo 2012 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox (46 - 4:41pm, Feb 17) Last: Jose is an Absurd Sultan 2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres (29 - 2:33pm, Feb 17) Last: Dan Szymborski 2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks (31 - 2:03am, Feb 14) Last: Dan Szymborski 2012 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers (21 - 12:43pm, Feb 10) Last: DEF: selfish min-maxer 2012 ZiPS Projections - Miami Marlins (31 - 8:16pm, Feb 07) Last: Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome 2012 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians (19 - 10:18pm, Feb 02) Last: DevinM 2012 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves (28 - 6:25pm, Jan 31) Last: Spahn Insane Syndicate |
|||||||
|
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| | ||||||
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: November 22, 2010 at 08:33 PM (#3695557)but when the spreadsheet was released, he was at .289/.388/.524, 126 OPS+. apparently there was a flaw in the data for the 1st release that was fixed for the 2nd.
i know his 2010 wasn't good, but a 97 OPS+ seems quite a bit too pessimistic.
I'd have been better off not fixing the mistake.
the last 5 years of OPS+ for hawpe are 120, 130, 121, 125, and 94 (last season). i'm curious to figure out how a 97 pops up this year based on that recent history.
Silly ZiPS.
Along with the pen, the holes at LF, 1B and (essentially/probably) DH leave them in fairly rough shape at the moment.
In any case, it seems like Joyce (a young player w/o a long track record) has a projection greatly tied to last year. Conversely, Hawpe (a player with a long, established track record) doesn't seem to derive any consistency from his previous marks.
By the way, not trying to nitpick, as I greatly value and enjoy these projections. Just my 2 cents.
Funny to see Oddibe McDowell pop up on the comps list, is he who the system is named after?
And not that I really know who Stephen Vogt is, but looking at his ratings it seems that he's an all-bat DH-type player, funny to see a guy like Ryan Sweeney (a great defender) pop up on the comps.
And not that I really know who Stephen Vogt is, but looking at his ratings it seems that he's an all-bat DH-type player, funny to see a guy like Ryan Sweeney (a great defender) pop up on the comps.
Remember, comps are offense only! I haven't found any value in defensive performance (outside of a speed score variant, which good defensive players tend to be better at) in offensive projections!
Josh did make a comment admitting that ZiPS was closer on Zobrist this time around. He's been pretty supportive of ZiPS, so I think it's best if we all drop this before feelings get raw!
Two, he struggled with back injuries all year (you can look it up).
Three, I never expected him to duplicate his 2009 season but I still say he is a better hitter than ~110 OPS+. We will just have to see.
TB has a bright future, lot of young talent. I'm sure if he turns around this year and posts a OPS+ over 120 (like I thought he would last year) you all will change your tune correct? Haha
If I didn't want criticism or nitpicking, I would certainly close these for comments!
The translated/park neutral/league neutral proj. 2010 baseline for Joyce is 240/335/442, derived from recent translations/actual MLB combined of 247/368/451, 239/324/402, 255/336/502, and 225/276/337. When you factor in regression (doesn't hit Joyce hard since he's fairly ordinary), his comparisons, and new park/league, it drops to that projection above.
he is 32 and speaking as a Met fan, if a guy that age with an established skill level of 120 or so, puts up a 90, I don't hold my breath waiting for a comeback....
that said, a simple marcelike system would likely see him at 106 (3 year weighted average less a 3 point penalty for being on the wrong side of 30)...
Hawpe had very unusual home road splits in Coors
by very unusual I mean, his H/R splits looked like a guy playing in a neutral park
Hawpe career H/R:
H: .285/.377/.509
R: .273/.369/.470
Barmes:
H: .285/.335/.458
R: .224/.266/.352
Tulo:
H: .312/.383/.544
R: .269/.342/.448
Atkins:
H: .321/.380/.495
R: .252/.322/.406
Holliday:
H: .345/.419/.616
R: .289/.356/.469
I looked this up because a pal of mine dismissed Hawpe as a "Coors Creation" when he was discussed in a fantasy trade last year... Whatever Hawpe is/was that was certainly an unfair label- or maybe individual H/R splits are just meaningless
FWIW Ian Stewart's H/R splits are likewise seemingly unaffected by the altitude in Denver...
For minor league range, the stat situation is inferior (Smith and I have similar systems for estimating minor leaguers but it can't touch the MLB stuff in quality because the stuff needed just isn't tracked), so I have to rely more on scouting reports. Errors are easier, of course. I'd like to wring some of the fragments of subjectivity out of the system, but that's not really possible for players without higher quality defensive stats.
I try to use a lot of sources and pay more attention to guys with a track record of objective approaches and I do have some connections, but it's a mixed bag. When observing defensive performance rather than mechanics/tools, our brains are designed very poorly for accumulating large amounts of similar observations.
He is on there:
Matthew Moore L 22 4.79 8 9 27 27 124.0 121 66 12 79 119 88
Actually, if Zips is WRONG there will probably be a massive overpay!
Most notable, I think, are the top two comps: Al Leiter and Randy Johnson.
EDIT: coke to jar.
Remember, comps are offense only!
:-)
That's sort of like saying that an offense that loses five players each hitting 10 HR, needs to find a 50 HR guy to make up the slack. A 2.68 ERA spread over five guys is about 20% as valuable as if one player produced those results. The comparison of this potential loss as being equivalent to losing a Cy Young award winner is not particularly accurate.
This would only make sense if the relievers were down around replacement level.
Those 5 guys has a WAR of about 7 (Rivera and Lee were at 7.3). It's better to get 7 wins from 2 players than 5, but you're making a comical overestimation of opportunity cost. If 5 players with 7 wins are only 20% as valuable as 1 player with 7 wins, you're essentially arguing that 5 1.4-win players have the same value as a single 1.4-win player, i.e., that 1.4 WAR is actually where replacement value should be. For something that crazy, you better be prepared to show your work.
In addition to what Prince Fielder said wrt opportunity cost, you're ignoring leverage. In some ways it's better to have five bullpen guys with a 2.68 ERA than a Cy Young winner, because you can handle basically any high leverage situation, where Cy Young (unless he plays for Seattle) will be pitching in a lot of blowouts.
Also, one guy has thrown 270 innings in the last 20 years.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main