User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.6226 seconds
58 querie(s) executed
|
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
| ||||||||
Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Saturday, November 20, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue JaysAll in all, 2010 was a pleasant surprise for the Jays. The team, short of Roy Halladay for the first time in a decade, managed to patch together enough pitching to be able to take advantage of the ultimate pleasant surprise, Jose Bautista, who went from a 4th outfielder type who could kinda fake third base to hitting 54 home runs, tied for 19th in the history of baseball.
Despite the positive record, the team does have a bit of work to do. While the starting pitching probably performed to expectations and shouldn’t fall off too much, some of the team’s best relievers are unsigned (though shouldn’t be too expensive) and the organization’s kind of thin in quality relief pitching. The problem with the Jays doing what the Rays have done is simply that they don’t have the farm system for it - it’s not really Alex Anthopoulos’s fault since he took over a year ago and the prospects received in the Halladay trade are what keep the Jays from scraping barnacles in the farm rankings.
The team will also have to figure out just what to do with Bautista - figuring out the proper value for him is a task that I don’t envy. Of course, having a 2010 Bautista that you’re not sure how to value is a lot better than a 2009 Bautista that you know just what to pay.
The AL East is a tough division to keep in and I’m slowly coming around to a salary cap. Don’t get me wrong, I mostly would now prefer a salary cap as opposed to the mess of a revenue-sharing system we have now - the players are getting screwed anyway and there’s essentially a salary cap anyway for 28 or 29 teams, but a salary cap in return for less revenue-sharing might at least get the players back to the historical pot share and increase the investment incentive.
But that’s an article for another time. The Jays need some creative thinking and while Double-A has done some things I disagree with (Taylor Buchholz for instance, should not have hit waivers with so much uncertainty in the Jays pen), there has been some thinking outside of the box, most notably the clever move to acquire Miguel Olivo days before free agency in order to receive a compensation pick.
Honestly, this is probably a .500 team. The Jays would compete in the NL Central or NL West, but this is a tough division. The Jays have tread water for too long that 85 wins is probably the short-term high-water mark, though the organization is far from hopeless.
Next up: Tampa Bay
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Jose Bautista R RF 30 .249 .362 .524 137 450 77 112 24 2 32 84 76 107 6 1 135 Adam Lind L DH 27 .269 .321 .471 154 580 72 156 36 3 25 92 42 128 1 1 109 Travis Snider L LF 23 .260 .320 .465 131 469 60 122 28 1 22 61 40 135 7 5 108 Vernon Wells R CF 32 .265 .318 .451 146 565 73 150 36 3 21 77 44 78 9 4 104 Lyle Overbay L 1B 34 .244 .336 .423 133 454 59 111 29 2 16 58 62 107 1 0 102 Aaron Hill R 2B 29 .257 .312 .444 131 518 70 133 28 0 23 73 38 78 4 2 100 Fred Lewis L LF 30 .255 .334 .406 121 404 67 103 25 6 8 37 43 107 15 6 98 Rajai Davis R CF 30 .273 .318 .380 137 432 64 120 24 4 6 46 25 68 41 11 91 Yunel Escobar R SS 28 .268 .345 .381 144 533 72 143 25 1 11 55 56 71 5 4 95 Mike Jacobs L 1B 30 .232 .289 .453 128 470 62 109 22 2 26 80 39 123 1 0 96 Randy Ruiz R DH 33 .248 .301 .423 84 319 38 79 18 1 12 30 20 93 1 1 92 Jarrett Hoffpauir R 2B 28 .249 .318 .386 121 438 48 109 24 3 10 48 44 47 4 3 88 Eric Thames L LF 24 .236 .307 .402 149 584 77 138 25 6 20 84 46 173 7 5 89 Dewayne Wise L CF 33 .243 .286 .410 91 239 33 58 12 5 6 23 12 55 8 4 84 J. P. Arencibia R C 25 .230 .273 .432 135 539 63 124 32 1 25 80 31 142 0 0 86 Brad Emaus R 3B 25 .238 .314 .364 147 558 69 133 30 2 12 65 61 98 9 3 82 Miguel Olivo R C 32 .228 .270 .413 106 373 44 85 15 3 16 55 19 122 6 3 80 Darin Mastroianni R CF 25 .246 .316 .309 134 524 75 129 19 4 2 36 52 121 37 10 69 Brian Dopirak R DH 27 .238 .279 .392 119 474 46 113 26 1 15 62 25 125 1 2 78 David Cooper L 1B 24 .234 .291 .367 137 531 50 124 30 1 13 65 43 111 0 0 76 Aaron Mathews R LF 29 .250 .289 .359 102 404 42 101 19 2 7 43 22 67 2 1 73 Mike McCoy R SS 30 .231 .312 .317 110 350 48 81 14 2 4 29 42 69 17 5 70 Chris Lubanski L LF 26 .219 .277 .376 95 343 43 75 16 4 10 43 29 108 5 2 73 Jesus Merchan R SS 30 .255 .296 .343 66 251 23 64 12 2 2 21 11 30 2 2 71 Moises Sierra R RF 22 .243 .295 .344 80 305 31 74 14 1 5 39 17 71 5 3 71 Manny Mayorson R SS 28 .252 .289 .324 111 408 44 103 21 1 2 30 20 32 14 4 64 John McDonald R 2B 36 .241 .264 .371 73 170 22 41 8 1 4 19 5 25 2 1 68 Jason Lane R LF 34 .213 .289 .362 97 362 44 77 19 1 11 42 36 80 2 3 74 Travis d’Arnaud R C 22 .231 .280 .357 108 415 43 96 23 1 9 46 26 92 4 4 70 Shawn Bowman R 3B 26 .224 .270 .365 100 392 40 88 20 1 11 40 22 128 1 2 69 Brian Jeroloman R C 26 .204 .315 .301 102 339 31 69 15 0 6 31 54 131 0 0 67 Jose Molina R C 36 .220 .273 .312 62 173 15 38 7 0 3 13 9 40 1 0 57 Adeiny HechavarriaR SS 22 .232 .259 .313 125 512 59 119 21 4 4 41 18 93 13 3 53 Adam Calderone L RF 27 .207 .256 .346 117 445 47 92 21 4 11 45 26 130 6 7 60 Callix Crabbe B 2B 28 .206 .286 .288 102 344 44 71 13 3 3 27 36 74 10 6 55 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Jose Bautista AV/112 PO/114 FR/86 FR/79 PO/113 FR/79 Adam Lind FR/110 PO/56 Travis Snider AV/191 FR/123 Vernon Wells FR/54 Lyle Overbay AV/63 Aaron Hill AV/74 Fred Lewis AV/157 FR/189 FR/157 Rajai Davis VG/112 AV/110 VG/112 Yunel Escobar AV/93 Mike Jacobs FR/195 Randy Ruiz FR/187 Jarrett Hoffpauir AV/145 AV/119 FR/124 Eric Thames FR/168 Dewayne Wise VG/127 VG/80 VG/67 J. P. Arencibia FR Brad Emaus AV/115 AV/140 Miguel Olivo VG Darin Mastroianni VG/121 AV/143 Brian Dopirak AV/217 FR/151 David Cooper FR/111 Aaron Mathews AV/104 FR/118 AV/104 Mike McCoy AV/124 AV/107 AV/116 AV/126 FR/122 AV/108 Chris Lubanski AV/120 FR/120 Jesus Merchan VG/164 AV/149 Moises Sierra VG/267 Manny Mayorson AV/111 FR/117 AV/116 FR/120 John McDonald VG/107 AV/122 AV/104 AV/113 Jason Lane FR/119 Fr/114 FR/111 Travis d’Arnaud AV Shawn Bowman AV/82 Brian Jeroloman AV Jose Molina VG Adeiny Hechavarria AV/131 Adam Calderone VG/115 AV/97 VG/115 Callix Crabbe AV/176 AV/114 FR/155 AV/97 AV/114 AV/111 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Shaun Marcum R 29 3.79 9 6 23 23 137.7 131 58 17 35 118 115 Brandon Morrow R 26 4.04 11 8 28 28 149.3 133 67 16 72 162 108 Ricky Romero L 26 4.15 14 10 34 34 212.7 210 98 20 87 180 105 Dustin McGowan R 29 4.41 5 5 14 14 79.7 83 39 8 29 62 99 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Brett Cecil L 24 4.65 10 10 29 29 155.0 167 80 18 57 115 94 Kyle Drabek R 23 4.97 10 12 28 27 157.7 167 87 18 81 109 88 Shawn Hill R 30 4.99 3 3 8 8 39.7 47 22 4 12 23 87 Jesse Litsch R 26 5.12 5 6 16 16 89.7 103 51 13 24 49 85 Zach Stewart R 24 5.15 4 5 29 22 120.7 139 69 13 55 92 85 Marc Rzepczynski L 25 5.55 7 10 25 24 123.3 144 76 15 64 99 79 Brad Mills L 26 5.91 5 9 23 22 115.7 133 76 19 62 88 74 Scott Richmond R 31 5.93 5 8 19 17 91.0 105 60 19 37 69 73 Jo-Jo Reyes L 26 6.02 4 7 21 19 92.7 109 62 16 42 68 72 Randy Boone R 26 6.25 6 11 26 23 125.3 167 87 16 56 64 70 Rey Gonzalez R 25 6.42 5 11 24 23 115.0 145 82 17 50 54 68 Robert Ray R 27 6.55 4 8 19 18 90.7 119 66 15 43 53 66 Luis Perez L 26 6.70 6 14 29 27 141.0 186 105 18 94 78 65 Lance Broadway R 27 7.18 4 11 32 20 135.3 193 108 21 72 69 61 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Scott Downs L 35 3.42 4 2 59 0 55.3 51 21 5 17 48 127 Jason Frasor R 33 3.83 4 3 60 0 56.3 51 24 6 24 56 114 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Shawn Camp R 35 4.06 4 3 58 0 64.3 65 29 7 19 47 107 Kevin Gregg R 33 4.06 6 4 66 0 62.0 55 28 7 30 63 107 Casey Janssen R 29 4.25 4 3 60 0 65.7 69 31 7 21 52 102 Jesse Carlson L 30 4.60 3 3 67 0 62.7 65 32 8 20 48 95 David Purcey L 29 4.81 3 3 70 0 73.0 70 39 9 45 69 91 Josh Roenicke R 28 5.06 3 4 55 0 69.3 74 39 8 36 62 86 Danny Farquhar R 24 5.32 3 4 56 0 66.0 62 39 9 56 60 82 Jeremy Accardo R 29 5.32 2 3 46 0 45.7 55 27 5 20 26 82 Jason Lane L 34 5.40 0 0 3 0 3.3 3 2 0 1 2 81 Steven Register R 28 5.94 2 4 56 0 72.7 90 48 11 30 44 73 Sean Henn L 30 6.16 2 3 37 4 64.3 79 44 8 43 43 71 Merkin Valdez R 29 6.19 2 3 39 1 48.0 63 33 6 25 29 70 Rommie Lewis L 28 6.42 3 5 42 5 67.3 87 48 10 36 45 68 Clint Everts R 26 6.68 2 5 43 2 67.3 83 50 10 52 52 65 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Vernon Wells .271 .321 .455 2101 8228 1114 2229 499 43 310 1155 598 1091 126 103 Travis Snider .255 .321 .457 2038 7186 909 1832 442 17 325 906 685 1941 106 106 Yunel Escobar .269 .342 .380 1711 6374 850 1712 286 14 131 660 640 738 57 93 Jose Bautista .239 .341 .464 1701 5546 829 1328 291 25 301 858 802 1201 58 113 Adam Lind .263 .315 .455 1606 6011 734 1578 364 27 247 902 442 1235 12 104 Aaron Hill .260 .314 .423 1601 6233 815 1619 339 8 220 805 444 855 47 94 Lyle Overbay .265 .348 .436 1576 5409 707 1431 381 16 171 709 693 1130 17 106 Fred Lewis .260 .335 .403 986 3207 531 833 196 44 58 281 327 783 108 96 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Ricky Romero 156 120 0 4.21 382 383 2408 2379 1126 245 1017 2080 104 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Jose Bautista RF 61% 25% 8% 4% 2% Tom Brunansky Dwight Evans Roy Sievers Adam Lind DH 6% 21% 22% 31% 19% Larry Sheets Chad Tracy Willie Montanez Travis Snider LF 11% 22% 18% 20% 28% David Ortiz Nelson Simmons Lee Stevens Vernon Wells CF 20% 20% 28% 22% 10% Sam Mele Jackie Brandt Del Ennis Lyle Overbay 1B 3% 12% 16% 34% 35% Ron Santo Lee Stevens J.T. Snow Aaron Hill 2B 23% 17% 19% 22% 19% Joe Crede Eric McNair David Bell Fred Lewis LF 3% 12% 17% 27% 41% Al BumbryClaudell Washington John Rodriguez Rajai Davis CF 16% 21% 30% 22% 11% Willie McGee Doug Glanville Willie Wilson Yunel Escobar SS 16% 20% 29% 22% 12% Bob Aspromonte Scott Fletcher Dave Chalk Mike Jacobs 1B 2% 7% 11% 31% 49% Ivan Cruz Nate Gold J.R. Phillips Randy Ruiz DH 1% 5% 9% 28% 58% Mike Blowers Jerry Martin Walt Dropo Jarrett Hoffpauir 2B 7% 8% 14% 26% 45% Steve Lombardozzi Joe Dillon Rico Rossy Eric Thames LF 2% 5% 8% 16% 69% Mike Patterson Mike Berger Lloyd Moseby Dewayne Wise CF 6% 6% 15% 27% 46% Tommy McCraw Dave Roberts Michael Tucker J. P. Arencibia C 4% 17% 24% 31% 24% J.P. Arencibia Mike Fitzgerald Joe Oliver Brad Emaus 3B 1% 5% 10% 21% 64% Garrett Atkins Paul Janish Mark Kiger Miguel Olivo C 3% 12% 20% 32% 34% Jim Hegan Jason LaRue Mike Heath Darin Mastroianni CF 1% 2% 9% 26% 61% Curtis Goodwin Joey Gathright Gary Thurman Brian Dopirak DH 0% 0% 1% 7% 92% Charley Carter Danny Matienzo Chad Santos David Cooper 1B 0% 0% 1% 6% 92% Jose Birriel Randy Jorgensen Travis Hinton Aaron Mathews LF 0% 0% 0% 2% 97% Jeff Schulz Pat Watkins Chan Perry Mike McCoy SS 4% 6% 16% 28% 47% Mark Belanger Tim Barker Cesar Crespo Chris Lubanski LF 0% 1% 2% 5% 92% Emmitt Cohick Jon Hamilton Justin Bowles Jesus Merchan SS 1% 2% 8% 20% 69% Robert Eenhoorn Alvaro Espinoza Bien Figueroa Moises Sierra RF 0% 1% 1% 3% 94% Rex Hudler Dan Winters Greg Pirkl Manny Mayorson SS 0% 1% 5% 16% 77% Rey Sanchez Andy Cannizaro Bobby Bonner John McDonald 2B 3% 1% 2% 6% 88% Juan Castro Billy Martin Miguel Cairo Jason Lane LF 0% 1% 1% 4% 95% Damon Buford Chad Mottola Mark Smith Travis d’Arnaud C 2% 3% 6% 17% 72% Neil Wilson Pete Beeler Ryan Christianson Shawn Bowman 3B 0% 1% 2% 4% 93% Aaron Herr Glenn Williams Chad Spann Brian Jeroloman C 1% 2% 4% 16% 77% John Gibbons Dan WhitmerMaximiliano Ramirez Jose Molina C 0% 1% 2% 8% 88% Raul Chavez Elston Howard Joe Oliver Adeiny HechavarriaSS 0% 1% 3% 7% 90% Tony Rodriguez Audy Ciriaco Eduardo Nunez Adam Calderone RF 0% 0% 0% 0% 99% Richie Robnett Justin Bowles Todd Dunwoody Callix Crabbe 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Gary Miller-Jones Jon Schuerholz Doug Baker Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Scott Downs RP 54% 39% 7% Gary Lavelle Tug McGraw Greg Swindell Shaun Marcum SP 60% 37% 4% Alex Fernandez Scott Sanderson Pascual Perez Jason Frasor RP 33% 50% 16% Curt Leskanic Juan Berenguer Jeff Nelson Taylor Buchholz RP 29% 48% 23% Rich Monteleone Gene Nelson Geoff Geary Brandon Morrow SP 48% 46% 6% Jose DeLeon Juan Guzman Kerry Wood Shawn Camp RP 21% 53% 26% Ted Wilks Joe Slusarski Rick White Kevin Gregg RP 20% 55% 24% Jose DeLeon Tim Stoddard Rich DeLucia Ricky Romero SP 37% 58% 5% Danny Jackson Shawn Estes Chris Nabholz Casey Janssen RP 18% 54% 28% Robbie Crabtree Larry Andersen John Habyan Dustin McGowan SP 31% 46% 23% Rick Rhoden Mike Witt Joey Hamilton Jesse Carlson RP 11% 41% 48% Graeme Lloyd Mike Magnante Erasmo Ramirez Brett Cecil SP 13% 60% 27% Bud Smith Steve Trout Allen Watson David Purcey RP 5% 38% 57% Armando Almanza Matt Thornton Ricky Pickett Kyle Drabek SP 6% 45% 50% Charlie Haeger J.D. Durbin Jimmy Jones Shawn Hill SP 18% 30% 52% Scott Erickson Sidney Ponson Heath Totten Josh Roenicke RP 2% 28% 70% Roberto Giron Roy Corcoran Courtney Duncan Jesse Litsch SP 8% 38% 54% Brian Meadows Dave Eiland Josh Towers Zach Stewart SP 4% 34% 62% Julian Tavarez Jimmy Haynes Joey Hamilton Danny Farquhar RP 1% 17% 81% Brad Voyles Ted Langdon Dave Shipanoff Jeremy Accardo RP 4% 22% 74% Rick Lysander Andy Mitchell Jose Santiago Jason Lane RP 47% 0% 53% Kevin Hickey Vic Darensbourg Mike Mohler Marc Rzepczynski SP 1% 19% 81% Brandon Claussen C.J. Nitkowski Ken Vining Brad Mills SP 0% 10% 90% Lindsay Gulin Mark Redman Dave Stewart Scott Richmond SP 0% 10% 89% Jackson Todd Nerio Rodriguez Jeremy Cummings Steven Register RP 0% 7% 93% Aaron Small Bryan Corey Nick McCurdy Jo-Jo Reyes SP 0% 11% 89% Travis Miller Greg Miller Brian McNichol Sean Henn RP 0% 3% 97% James Wray Mark Watson Tim Adkins Merkin Valdez RP 0% 5% 94% Andy Mitchell Mike Bumstead Jose Segura Randy Boone SP 0% 3% 97% Marcus Jones Mickey Callaway Bill Swift Rommie Lewis RP 0% 2% 98% Matt Perisho Dennis Powell Matt White Rey Gonzalez SP 0% 2% 98% Andy Taulbee Denny Wagner Rick Steirer B.J. LaMura SP 0% 2% 98% Chris Hook Michael Johnson Chris Fussell Robert Ray SP 0% 2% 98% Edward Valdez Brian Rogers Matt Saier Clint Everts RP 0% 1% 99% Tim Meeks Rick Greene Dilson Torres Luis Perez SP 0% 0% 100% Mike Wodnicki Greg Kubes Carlos Perez Lance Broadway SP 0% 0% 100% Lee Rodney Chris Enochs Steven Jackson Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Jose Bautista 3% 32% 68% 0% 1% 61% 39% 0% Adam Lind 8% 2% 23% 13% 2% 27% 4% 0% Travis Snider 5% 3% 27% 1% 0% 16% 5% 1% Vernon Wells 7% 2% 12% 14% 2% 9% 2% 2% Lyle Overbay 1% 8% 5% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% Aaron Hill 4% 1% 11% 2% 0% 15% 1% 0% Fred Lewis 4% 6% 1% 0% 10% 0% 0% 2% Rajai Davis 21% 3% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 81% Yunel Escobar 10% 14% 3% 1% 0% 2% 2% 0% Mike Jacobs 0% 0% 13% 0% 1% 26% 2% 0% Randy Ruiz 3% 1% 6% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Jarrett Hoffpauir 2% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Eric Thames 0% 1% 2% 0% 12% 10% 0% 0% Dewayne Wise 4% 0% 7% 0% 7% 0% 1% 0% J. P. Arencibia 0% 0% 6% 5% 0% 25% 0% 0% Brad Emaus 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% Miguel Olivo 0% 0% 4% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% Darin Mastroianni 1% 2% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 80% Brian Dopirak 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% David Cooper 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% Aaron Mathews 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Mike McCoy 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% Chris Lubanski 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Jesus Merchan 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Moises Sierra 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Manny Mayorson 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% John McDonald 5% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Jason Lane 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Travis d’Arnaud 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Shawn Bowman 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brian Jeroloman 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jose Molina 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Adeiny Hechavarria 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 3% Adam Calderone 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Callix Crabbe 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Scott Downs 46% 90% 40% 16% 78% Shaun Marcum 23% 81% 38% 32% 42% Jason Frasor 26% 78% 80% 1% 69% Taylor Buchholz 22% 70% 35% 9% 48% Brandon Morrow 13% 75% 93% 0% 62% Shawn Camp 21% 68% 7% 14% 61% Kevin Gregg 20% 70% 82% 0% 60% Ricky Romero 7% 70% 30% 0% 80% Casey Janssen 14% 66% 15% 11% 62% Dustin McGowan 7% 49% 15% 2% 73% Jesse Carlson 7% 45% 10% 11% 40% Brett Cecil 2% 35% 5% 1% 47% David Purcey 4% 31% 65% 0% 47% Kyle Drabek 1% 17% 2% 0% 58% Shawn Hill 6% 32% 3% 23% 56% Josh Roenicke 2% 19% 48% 0% 57% Jesse Litsch 2% 19% 0% 27% 26% Zach Stewart 0% 12% 4% 0% 58% Danny Farquhar 1% 15% 48% 0% 38% Jeremy Accardo 4% 20% 2% 3% 69% Jason Lane 47% 47% 20% 59% 64% Marc Rzepczynski 0% 5% 16% 0% 46% Brad Mills 0% 2% 7% 0% 14% Scott Richmond 0% 2% 8% 0% 2% Steven Register 0% 3% 0% 0% 24% Jo-Jo Reyes 0% 2% 5% 0% 8% Sean Henn 0% 2% 2% 0% 46% Merkin Valdez 0% 4% 1% 0% 47% Randy Boone 0% 0% 0% 0% 36% Rommie Lewis 0% 1% 1% 0% 38% Rey Gonzalez 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% B.J. LaMura 0% 1% 6% 0% 11% Robert Ray 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% Clint Everts 0% 0% 10% 0% 26% Luis Perez 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% Lance Broadway 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 20, 2010 at 04:48 PM | 44 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News: |
BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot Topics2012 ZiPS Projections, Final Edition
(23 - 11:21am, May 31) Last: craigsaboe 2012 ZiPS/RBI Baseball (20 - 10:58am, May 03) Last: tjans 2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1 (62 - 4:38pm, Apr 10) Last: nemodomi 2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A's (69 - 5:57am, Apr 10) Last: Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz 2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals (31 - 1:51pm, Mar 23) Last: hokieneer Pirates - Acquire Burnett (10 - 11:09pm, Feb 20) Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) 2012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates (41 - 10:02am, Feb 20) Last: Dangerous Dean 2012 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins (31 - 8:53pm, Feb 17) Last: A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo 2012 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox (46 - 4:41pm, Feb 17) Last: Jose is an Absurd Sultan 2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres (29 - 2:33pm, Feb 17) Last: Dan Szymborski 2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks (31 - 2:03am, Feb 14) Last: Dan Szymborski 2012 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers (21 - 12:43pm, Feb 10) Last: DEF: selfish min-maxer 2012 ZiPS Projections - Miami Marlins (31 - 8:16pm, Feb 07) Last: Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome 2012 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians (19 - 10:18pm, Feb 02) Last: DevinM 2012 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves (28 - 6:25pm, Jan 31) Last: Spahn Insane Syndicate |
|||||||
|
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| | ||||||
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. jfish26101 Posted: November 20, 2010 at 05:15 PM (#3694282)It's promising to see ZiPS views him more as a SP now as opposed to a RP like last year. Not the numbers I was expecting but I'm glad to see that. I think he could settle in as a decent #3 if all goes well or a SU type RP if the Jays lose confidence in his change (which I've read multiple positive reports about recently). I'll have to run him through the conversation tool to see what he would look like as a RP.
Jose, it's a joke based on the Marchman/Upton thread.
In this case, I had his recent statistics as "J. P. Arencibia" while his profile for clustering was "J.P. Arencibia." Since he has no future statistics, it bears no effect on the actual projection (it's essentially a placeholder that gets filled in as/when/if Arencibia's career progresses).
Fitzgerald and Oliver move up and his #3 comp should be Mike Rivera.
Funny, because as a Red Sox fan whenever I see Bruno's name I think of that catch that nobody saw. I can still remember Sean McDonough's call as Bruansky disappeared into the corner: "Long fly ball into the corner and... BRUNANSKY!!! Did he...... MADE the sliding catch in the corner! And the Red Sox are the champions of the AL East in 1990!"
Totally forgot it was against the Jays, though.
Brunansky was the Cardinals' attempt to replace Jack Clark's power after Clark left as a free agent. It didn't exactly work out that way, but he did lead the team in homers in '88 and '89. I was only five when the Cardinals traded for him, but I remember it well, since it cost the team Tom Herr, who was my favorite player at the time, and to send him to the team that had just beaten the Cards in the World Series seemed to be adding insult to injury.
i was born in philadelphia in 1987, so naturally, i was taken in by watching the atlanta braves on TBS. the whole worst to first thing after '91 was probably the earliest foreshadowing of my becoming the rabid fan i am today. i was taken in by watching maddux, glavine, smoltz, and avery, and that, too, probably had a big impact on the interest i now have in pitching.
so, in 1993, the greatest phillies season of my lifetime up until 2008, i was rooting for the team that lost in the NLCS.
it gets worse. around 1997, i was big into baseball cards, and my favorite one was a rookie card of travis lee. so, naturally, i switched my fandom from the braves, to the diamondbacks.
now, if you notice, i'm no longer a diamondbacks fan. i am a phillies fan. guess why that happened:
that's right, i became a phillies fan because travis lee was traded to the phillies for curt schilling (along with vicente padilla, nelson figueroa, and omar daal).
how ####### shameful is this string of events? i really should kick my own ass after all that. it's just absolutely terrible.
Sub-optimal baseball is still baseball. And the 1996 World Series, the first for my team in my young life, was very exciting.
I've always known who Tom Brunansky was but didn't know who Dwayne Murphy was until a couple years ago.
Same here, I probably JUST missed the Murphy cut off as I started following baseball around 1989-1990.
You guys must not pay much attention to Shooty. His deep and undying love of Dwayne Murphy is a common point of discussion for him.
On a related note I achieved my decade-long dream of meeting Joel Plaskett on Friday, so my other outlets of embrassing admiration (Shooty, Evan Solomon, Ken Finkleman, Winona Ryder, James Burke and Giles Coren...this list is getting a little cumbersome) better watchout for formerly Joel-based fanboyism to be re-diverted towards them!
November 17. Here's the discussion thread.
What the #### was Joel Plaskett doing in Nottingham?
He actually played Nottingham the day I arrived...but I was dead tired/sick and passed out in my flat, so I missed it.
I think Joel might be asking the same thing. It was a really cool venue, in the alcove of an old railway station. And a TERRIFIC show. He brought his dad with him and they put on quite a show. And got some details on why Kelowna is on his no-play list. But only about 15 people showed up, the majority of us Canadians, so I'm not sure if he's cracking the Irish market. I did talk to a bartender in Nottingham who's upset that his girlfriend is so in love with him...but other than that, despite my best efforts to help him, his UK campaign seems a mixed success.
Congrats Shooty! And how uncharacteristically modest of you to keep this a secret. :-)
Don't worry Greg, almost nobody had heard of Murphy when he was playing.
I hope Chad can make the big club out of spring. He's a great guy and has had a rough off-season...his new-born child died from SIDS last month. Here's to regaining that prior All-Star form.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main