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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Saturday, November 20, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Washington NationalsI bet you never guessed pitchers were fragile. The Nats went into the 2010 season hoping that Jordan Zimmermann would return to a rotation that featured phenom Stephen Strasburg Virginia, Jason Marquis, John Lannan, and Livan Hernandez to eat some innings.
While Livan, who had previously earned the moniker Pitcher of Fail pretended to be a Cy Young candidate for a couple of months, the rest of the pitching didn’t “quite” work out. Jason Marquis, brought in to eat some innings at around league-average, missed most of the season with bone chips (though he did pitch OK when he came back). Lannan, who use Rueterkainen’s Faithful Watchdog to escape the vile clutches of Stochastia, Goddess of Balls in Play, got BABIPpity boppity-booed to a .322 BABIP and an 87 ERA+. And in the biggest disappointment, Stephen Strasburg is out until 2012.
With the pitching problems and the inability to sign Adam Dunn to a contract extension, the Nats problems look a little harder than they did last year at this time. But Strasburg should be bag, Bryce Harper is on the way (no projection for obvious reasons), and they still have Zimmerman, Zimmermann, and a no-frills-but-decent-bullpen. Probably not enough to keep the Nats out of last in 2011, however.
And yes, I’m really, really sorry about Strasburg’s unfortunate top comp.
Next up: Toronto
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Ryan Zimmerman R 3B 26 .288 .361 .490 149 573 95 165 34 2 26 90 66 109 3 1 125 Adam Dunn L 1B 31 .244 .363 .494 147 508 77 124 26 1 33 93 91 177 1 1 127 Josh Willingham R LF 32 .254 .362 .453 116 386 56 98 22 2 17 55 56 91 5 1 117 Mike Morse R RF 29 .275 .331 .457 100 313 41 86 17 2 12 38 22 64 1 1 108 Josh Whitesell L 1B 29 .241 .336 .389 92 319 37 77 18 1 9 56 43 92 1 1 94 Ian Desmond R SS 25 .260 .312 .392 147 520 62 135 28 4 11 58 35 118 16 7 87 Jesus Flores R C 26 .251 .308 .396 67 207 23 52 10 1 6 34 15 57 0 0 87 Roger Bernadina L RF 27 .246 .308 .382 115 395 54 97 17 5 9 30 34 91 21 7 84 Jason Botts B 1B 30 .238 .318 .395 82 294 34 70 20 1 8 39 35 76 0 1 90 Adam Kennedy L 2B 35 .260 .319 .358 123 385 45 100 19 2 5 38 31 52 12 3 81 Willie Harris L LF 33 .224 .326 .378 131 294 41 66 13 4 8 33 41 62 9 4 88 Nyjer Morgan L CF 30 .269 .327 .344 128 480 68 129 19 7 1 31 34 78 34 15 80 Chris Marrero R 1B 22 .256 .310 .387 154 579 66 148 29 1 15 72 42 140 1 5 85 Wilson Ramos R C 23 .263 .291 .397 110 426 43 112 25 1 10 42 13 64 1 2 82 Brian Bixler R SS 28 .243 .303 .358 123 436 59 106 20 6 6 43 30 133 16 5 76 Danny Espinosa B SS 24 .226 .296 .391 154 593 85 134 26 6 20 72 52 177 19 12 82 Justin Maxwell R CF 27 .209 .305 .360 121 364 53 76 15 2 12 40 47 133 21 7 77 Leonard Davis L LF 27 .228 .274 .403 130 464 51 106 21 6 16 50 26 140 8 4 78 Luis Ordaz R 2B 35 .256 .283 .365 48 156 15 40 9 1 2 18 5 27 3 1 72 Derek Norris R C 22 .205 .330 .343 126 449 61 92 23 0 13 55 79 145 6 4 81 Michael Burgess L RF 22 .218 .291 .368 152 587 63 128 28 6 16 78 52 174 7 7 75 Alberto Gonzalez R 2B 28 .256 .290 .343 120 289 30 74 15 2 2 20 13 37 1 1 69 Marvin Lowrance L LF 26 .220 .295 .351 125 427 48 94 19 2 11 37 42 122 3 4 72 Chase Lambin B 3B 31 .222 .284 .354 124 432 42 96 21 3 10 43 32 124 4 3 70 Kevin Mench R RF 33 .233 .286 .339 105 301 31 70 18 1 4 35 23 35 2 1 67 Seth Bynum R 2B 30 .213 .262 .368 111 389 44 83 19 1 13 52 26 128 7 3 66 Pete Orr L 3B 32 .224 .272 .342 130 433 50 97 19 7 6 37 22 90 15 7 63 Chris Duncan L 1B 30 .208 .292 .332 95 298 29 62 13 0 8 33 35 82 2 2 67 Ivan Rodriguez R C 39 .245 .272 .340 106 376 37 92 19 1 5 45 14 71 1 2 63 Wil Nieves R C 33 .231 .276 .313 65 182 14 42 7 1 2 19 11 32 1 0 57 Devin Ivany R C 28 .206 .268 .314 70 223 25 46 10 1 4 23 19 66 4 3 55 Pedro Lopez R SS 27 .220 .270 .284 98 313 34 69 12 1 2 24 21 55 3 3 49 Jamie Burke R C 39 .197 .244 .270 41 122 9 24 6 0 1 9 7 28 1 0 38 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Ryan Zimmerman EX/87 Adam Dunn FR/179 PO/203 PO/172 Josh Willingham FR/87 FR/87 Mike Morse AV/96 PO/125 FR/111 PO/120 FR/66 FR/66 Josh Whitesell VG/140 Ian Desmond AV/134 AV/171 Jesus Flores AV Roger Bernadina VG/116 AV/86 AV/107 Jason Botts AV/171 FR/124 FR/114 Adam Kennedy Willie Harris AV/126 AV/129 AV/125 AV/111 Nyjer Morgan EX/66 VG/130 EX/66 Chris Marrero AV/228 Wilson Ramos VG Brian Bixler AV/137 AV/107 FR/100 AV/113 AV/118 AV/113 Danny Espinosa VG/94 VG/128 Justin Maxwell AV/121 AV/121 AV/121 Leonard Davis PO/111 PO/160 AV/114 PO/155 FR/98 Luis Ordaz FR/91 FR/114 Derek Norris VG Michael Burgess AV/143 Alberto Gonzalez FR/98 VG/112 FR/129 Marvin Lowrance PO/85 PO/85 Chase Lambin AV/123 FR/116 FR/136 Kevin Mench FR/123 FR/94 FR/94 Seth Bynum AV/129 AV/110 FR/143 Pete Orr AV/117 FR/88 FR/108 AV/113 FR/97 AV/97 Chris Duncan FR/140 FR/133 FR/133 Ivan Rodriguez VG Wil Nieves FR Devin Ivany AV Pedro Lopez VG/119 VG/128 AV/103 AV/134 Jamie Burke AV FR/121 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Stephen Strasburg R 22 3.06 13 6 23 23 123.7 103 42 11 40 140 134 Jordan Zimmermann R 25 3.94 4 3 19 18 89.0 82 39 10 33 79 104 LEAGUE AVERAGE————————————————————————————————————- 96 Livan Hernandez R 36 4.33 10 11 30 30 187.0 206 90 17 59 99 94 Garrett Mock R 28 4.52 5 6 26 15 89.7 95 45 9 36 73 91 John Lannan L 26 4.56 10 12 32 32 189.7 209 96 20 66 101 90 Chien-Ming Wang R 31 4.59 4 4 12 11 64.7 70 33 6 25 39 89 Jason Marquis R 32 4.61 8 9 22 22 127.0 135 65 13 50 72 89 J.D. Martin R 28 4.62 6 8 21 21 115.0 126 59 15 30 67 89 Brad Meyers R 25 4.68 4 5 16 15 77.0 86 40 7 30 52 87 Chuck James L 29 4.75 7 9 26 17 100.3 102 53 15 41 76 86 Craig Stammen R 27 4.80 6 8 32 25 148.0 164 79 18 46 87 85 Scott Olsen L 27 4.83 5 7 22 21 119.3 130 64 16 39 74 85 Shairon Martis R 24 5.13 6 10 29 29 158.0 176 90 20 65 83 80 Ross Detwiler L 25 5.26 5 8 23 22 102.7 123 60 9 48 69 78 Collin Balester R 25 5.26 6 10 37 18 118.0 133 69 16 50 82 78 Erik Arnesen R 27 5.45 7 12 33 23 138.7 169 84 18 47 80 75 Luis Atilano R 26 5.45 5 9 22 19 102.3 124 62 13 37 47 75 Yunesky Maya R 29 5.60 4 7 17 17 82.0 97 51 9 42 44 73 Matt Chico L 28 5.74 4 7 20 20 95.7 116 61 13 40 51 71 Jeff Mandel R 26 5.86 6 12 30 25 136.7 176 89 16 58 67 70 Ryan Tatusko R 26 5.89 5 10 31 18 114.7 142 75 13 65 58 69 Andrew Kown R 28 6.08 5 11 32 20 120.0 152 81 20 45 55 67 Aaron Thompson L 24 6.17 5 13 28 28 140.0 179 96 18 71 76 66 Jason Jones R 28 6.82 4 11 23 19 97.7 134 74 18 39 41 60 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Drew Storen R 23 3.28 4 2 62 0 68.7 58 25 6 24 64 125 Tyler Clippard R 26 3.31 9 5 77 0 92.3 71 34 9 45 105 123 Sean Burnett L 28 3.46 4 2 74 0 65.0 55 25 6 29 60 118 Joel Peralta R 35 3.60 3 2 55 0 65.0 58 26 8 20 57 114 LEAGUE AVERAGE————————————————————————————————————- 108 Doug Slaten L 31 3.88 3 2 52 0 48.7 47 21 4 18 39 105 Victor Garate L 26 3.88 1 1 46 0 48.7 42 21 5 27 47 105 Josh Wilkie R 26 3.90 5 4 53 0 67.0 68 29 5 24 49 105 Tyler Walker R 35 3.98 3 2 39 0 43.0 40 19 6 14 37 103 Miguel Batista R 40 4.36 3 3 54 1 74.3 73 36 8 35 51 94 Jason Bergmann R 29 4.50 5 5 60 0 60.0 59 30 8 28 51 91 Ryan Mattheus R 27 4.63 2 2 22 0 23.3 23 12 3 12 19 88 Dan Leatherman R 25 4.68 3 3 38 0 57.7 59 30 8 25 48 87 Zech Zinicola R 26 5.12 3 4 43 0 51.0 57 29 5 27 35 80 Atahualpa SeverinoL 26 5.21 4 6 50 0 65.7 68 38 8 41 44 78 Joe Bisenius R 28 5.22 2 3 34 0 39.7 42 23 4 26 32 78 Jesse English L 26 5.23 2 3 45 0 43.0 46 25 5 28 30 78 Ron Villone L 41 5.84 3 6 50 0 44.7 51 29 6 29 27 70 Adam Carr R 27 6.16 3 7 48 3 68.7 83 47 9 43 42 66 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Ivan Rodriguez .296 .332 .461 2605 9844 1377 2909 584 52 314 1358 517 1517 128 105 Ryan Zimmerman .280 .346 .464 2522 9799 1466 2739 575 37 387 1438 1005 1660 60 114 Adam Dunn .245 .366 .493 2410 8373 1312 2053 440 18 533 1421 1507 2621 67 124 Adam Kennedy .273 .328 .381 1733 5686 709 1550 294 43 79 589 413 837 192 86 Josh Willingham .255 .356 .448 1255 4225 582 1078 237 23 177 592 559 916 47 112 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Livan Hernandez 199 202 0 4.43 549 548 3574 3959 1758 393 1204 2153 95 Jason Marquis 127 126 1 4.58 389 329 2037 2126 1037 246 799 1174 94 John Lannan 110 127 0 4.36 339 338 2014 2137 976 222 712 1088 95 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Ryan Zimmerman 3B 50% 30% 13% 6% 2% Ken McMullen Brook Jacoby Garrett Atkins Adam Dunn 1B 31% 34% 17% 13% 6% Carlos Pena Ryan Howard Jim Gentile Josh Willingham LF 22% 33% 20% 15% 9% Woodie Held Bob Bailey Tim Salmon Mike Morse RF 6% 20% 22% 26% 26% Matt LeCroy Xavier Nady Mike Brown Josh Whitesell 1B 1% 4% 8% 27% 59% Scott Stahoviak Mark Johnson Jerry Willard Ian Desmond SS 8% 17% 31% 27% 18% Rafael Ramirez Andujar Cedeno Jeff Blauser Jesus Flores C 6% 20% 24% 30% 21% Darryl Cias Dusty Brown David Ross Roger Bernadina RF 2% 5% 7% 16% 71% Reggie Williams Jeff Stone Scott Lusader Jason Botts 1B 1% 2% 5% 24% 67% Tony Clark Bobby Kielty Larry Broadway Adam Kennedy 2B 5% 7% 12% 24% 53% Todd Haney Jim Gantner Jerry Lumpe Willie Harris LF 2% 4% 7% 16% 71% Tommy McCraw David Dellucci Brad Tyler Nyjer Morgan CF 2% 5% 13% 28% 52% Tom Goodwin Dave Roberts Jerry Owens Chris Marrero 1B 1% 2% 3% 13% 81% Juan Tejeda Luis De los Santos Wes Bankston Wilson Ramos C 3% 10% 16% 31% 40% Rod Barajas Jorge Pedre Richard Suomi Brian Bixler SS 3% 7% 19% 30% 42% Tommy Murphy Bo Hart Royce Clayton Danny Espinosa SS 7% 10% 19% 26% 38% Alex Gonzalez Buddy Biancalana James Greene Justin Maxwell CF 2% 4% 14% 29% 51% Steve Howard Brandon Boggs Mike Murphy Leonard Davis LF 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% Emmitt Cohick Doug Devore Van Snider Luis Ordaz 2B 2% 1% 2% 8% 88% Billy Martin Garth Iorg Pete Suder Derek Norris C 4% 10% 15% 27% 44% Brian Deak Tom WilsonMaximiliano Ramirez Michael Burgess RF 0% 1% 3% 6% 90% Edgardo BaezChristopher Parmele Jon Hamilton Alberto Gonzalez 2B 0% 1% 1% 5% 93% Tom Veryzer Ever Magallanes Robert Eenhoorn Marvin Lowrance LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Steve Carver Corey Smith Kevin Burns Chase Lambin 3B 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% Bryn Kosco Trace Coquillette Sean Mcnally Kevin Mench RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Alan Cockrell Les Norman Dan Howitt Seth Bynum 2B 1% 1% 2% 7% 89% Trace Coquillette Tom Quinlan Mike Bell Pete Orr 3B 0% 0% 1% 3% 95% Derek Wathan Steve Hecht Dan Rohn Chris Duncan 1B 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% Jay Gainer James Clifford Greg Sparks Ivan Rodriguez C 0% 1% 3% 10% 86% Pat Borders Benito Santiago Joe Girardi Wil Nieves C 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% Chris Ashby Gary Green Frank Charles Devin Ivany C 0% 0% 1% 5% 93% Paul Chiaffredo Dave Ullery Tony DeFrancesco Pedro Lopez SS 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Les Dennis Kyle Houser Brad Hassey Jamie Burke C 0% 0% 0% 2% 97% Tony Pena Raul Chavez Elston Howard Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Stephen Strasburg SP 91% 9% 0% Mark Prior Jake Peavy Josh Beckett Drew Storen RP 51% 43% 6% Antonio Osuna Tom Niedenfuer Jesse Crain Tyler Clippard RP 53% 43% 4% Armando Benitez Scott Garrelts Mike Jackson Sean Burnett RP 42% 48% 10% J.C. Romero Will Ohman Ray King Joel Peralta RP 31% 54% 15% Jeff Montgomery Jeff Reardon Brian Drahman Doug Slaten RP 24% 50% 26% Scott Schoeneweis Randy Choate Alan Embree Victor Garate RP 23% 49% 28% Mitch Williams Neal Cotts Ron Villone Josh Wilkie RP 21% 55% 23% David Wilhelmi Hipolito Pichardo Julian Tavarez Jordan Zimmermann SP 39% 48% 12% Ian Snell Ben McDonald Brett Myers Tyler Walker RP 23% 44% 33% Jeff Montgomery Jeff Reardon Mike Trombley Livan Hernandez SP 17% 51% 32% Sid Hudson Mel Harder Camilo Pascual Miguel Batista RP 18% 36% 45% Don McMahon Jose Mesa Roberto Hernandez Jason Bergmann RP 5% 34% 61% Jim Dorsey Jimmy Serrano Richie Lewis Garrett Mock SP 14% 46% 39% Roy Lee Jackson Sean Bergman Mike Maddux John Lannan SP 6% 57% 37% Bill Latham Alfred Mathes Jeff Mutis Chien-Ming Wang SP 16% 40% 44% Joey Hamilton Omar Olivares Doc Medich Jason Marquis SP 11% 47% 42% Omar Olivares Kirk McCaskill Larry Luebbers J.D. Martin SP 12% 46% 42% Brian Meadows Louis McCall Josh Towers Ryan Mattheus RP 17% 33% 50% Brandon Puffer Joe Borowski Derrick Turnbow Brad Meyers SP 10% 41% 49% George Stablein Mike Scott Ben Hendrickson Dan Leatherman RP 3% 30% 67% Keith Troutman Paul Morse Pat Neshek Chuck James SP 7% 39% 54% Don Carman Bruce Chen John Tudor Craig Stammen SP 4% 40% 57% Gary Wilson Heath Totten Joe Roa Scott Olsen SP 6% 37% 57% John Rheinecker Eddie Priest Mike Maroth Zech Zinicola RP 2% 18% 80% Jason Szuminski Jordan DeJong Don Timberlake Shairon Martis SP 1% 20% 79% Tom Rowe Steve Cummings Scott Patterson Atahualpa SeverinoRP 1% 16% 84% Russ Rohlicek Tom Thurberg Scott Wiegandt Joe Bisenius RP 3% 20% 78% Mike MacDougal John Kiely Ryan Henderson Jesse English RP 2% 16% 82% Mike Williams Tom Doyle Russ Rohlicek Ross Detwiler SP 1% 23% 76% Matt Smith Derek Thompson Heath Murray Collin Balester SP 0% 7% 93% Luis Andujar Mike Johnson Steve Phoenix Erik Arnesen SP 0% 12% 88% Tim Harikkala Don August Felipe Lira Luis Atilano SP 0% 11% 88% Bill King Cameron Reimers Mike Christopher Yunesky Maya SP 1% 12% 87% Brian Harrison Jimmy Haynes Carlos Chantres Matt Chico SP 0% 8% 92% Lance Davis David Davidson Dave Otto Ron Villone RP 3% 10% 87% Jeff Fassero Don McMahon Jose Mesa Jeff Mandel SP 0% 3% 97% Marcus Jones John Snyder Nelson Figueroa Ryan Tatusko SP 0% 4% 96% Julien Tucker Ricky Steik Bill Malloy Andrew Kown SP 0% 2% 98% Tim McClaskey Mike Hinckley Todd Williams Adam Carr RP 0% 1% 99% Al Osuna Rick Greene George Sherrill Aaron Thompson SP 0% 1% 99% Mark Freed Chris Seddon Bruce Lockhart Jason Jones SP 0% 0% 100% Kyle Middleton Brad Ziegler Nick Roberts Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Ryan Zimmerman 30% 31% 42% 9% 0% 33% 21% 0% Adam Dunn 2% 34% 43% 1% 0% 64% 26% 0% Josh Willingham 4% 30% 15% 0% 1% 2% 9% 0% Mike Morse 19% 6% 12% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% Josh Whitesell 2% 10% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Ian Desmond 4% 1% 2% 2% 5% 1% 1% 4% Jesus Flores 8% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Roger Bernadina 2% 1% 2% 0% 5% 1% 1% 12% Jason Botts 2% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Adam Kennedy 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Willie Harris 1% 6% 2% 0% 3% 0% 1% 1% Nyjer Morgan 10% 3% 0% 0% 18% 0% 0% 68% Chris Marrero 2% 1% 2% 7% 0% 5% 1% 0% Wilson Ramos 7% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brian Bixler 1% 1% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% Danny Espinosa 0% 0% 3% 1% 20% 12% 1% 11% Justin Maxwell 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% Leonard Davis 0% 0% 1% 0% 10% 1% 0% 0% Luis Ordaz 11% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Derek Norris 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Michael Burgess 0% 0% 1% 3% 15% 4% 0% 1% Alberto Gonzalez 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Marvin Lowrance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chase Lambin 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Kevin Mench 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Seth Bynum 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Pete Orr 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 0% 0% 3% Chris Duncan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ivan Rodriguez 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Wil Nieves 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Devin Ivany 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pedro Lopez 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jamie Burke 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Stephen Strasburg 63% 97% 96% 6% 83% Drew Storen 51% 91% 64% 3% 88% Tyler Clippard 46% 93% 96% 0% 66% Sean Burnett 35% 83% 54% 0% 77% Joel Peralta 24% 75% 42% 10% 50% Doug Slaten 24% 67% 22% 5% 75% Victor Garate 23% 64% 68% 0% 63% Josh Wilkie 16% 64% 5% 4% 89% Jordan Zimmermann 15% 62% 48% 2% 56% Tyler Walker 23% 58% 40% 15% 45% Livan Hernandez 4% 37% 1% 7% 82% Miguel Batista 15% 50% 7% 1% 61% Jason Bergmann 5% 32% 33% 0% 49% Garrett Mock 2% 32% 18% 1% 67% John Lannan 1% 21% 0% 2% 61% Chien-Ming Wang 5% 32% 3% 5% 77% Jason Marquis 2% 26% 0% 1% 66% J.D. Martin 3% 27% 1% 30% 37% Ryan Mattheus 17% 38% 23% 1% 75% Brad Meyers 3% 27% 1% 1% 78% Dan Leatherman 3% 27% 31% 1% 33% Chuck James 1% 18% 9% 0% 20% Craig Stammen 0% 13% 0% 6% 51% Scott Olsen 1% 16% 0% 5% 32% Zech Zinicola 1% 15% 3% 0% 78% Shairon Martis 0% 4% 0% 0% 41% Atahualpa Severino 1% 12% 1% 0% 52% Joe Bisenius 1% 16% 28% 0% 54% Jesse English 2% 13% 5% 0% 67% Ross Detwiler 0% 6% 1% 0% 82% Collin Balester 0% 4% 1% 0% 26% Erik Arnesen 0% 2% 0% 2% 33% Luis Atilano 0% 2% 0% 2% 36% Yunesky Maya 0% 3% 0% 0% 61% Matt Chico 0% 1% 0% 0% 36% Ron Villone 2% 10% 3% 0% 41% Jeff Mandel 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% Ryan Tatusko 0% 0% 0% 0% 62% Andrew Kown 0% 0% 0% 1% 9% Adam Carr 0% 1% 0% 0% 50% Aaron Thompson 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% Jason Jones 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 20, 2010 at 04:57 AM | 10 comment(s)
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1. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 20, 2010 at 05:40 AM (#3694153)Did you laugh even a little?
Zimmerman's top comp is pretty ugly, too.
PIT 5
SDP 6
OAK 8
TEX 11
FLA 5
ARI 8
CLE 5
WAS 13
Granted, these are the low payroll teams. Still, seems like the Nats are in decent-ish shape when it comes to pitching.
That said, I'll take the under on his projected ERA for 2011...
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