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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Thursday, December 22, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta BravesDespite the disappointing final month of the season (to put it lightly), the Braves are still a dangerous team. The pitching staff is young and quite deep and rather than try to emulate the Braves success developing pitchers, I think it’s reached the point at which other organizations should simply abduct all the people that work on player development and simply force them to scout and train prospects, at knifepoint if need be. Or, I guess, they could hire them, but that’s slower.
While two of Atlanta’s best hitters are very young, there are still some concerns about the offense going forward. The team can’t count on Chipper forever - at his age, even if he doesn’t make good on his yearly threat to retire, he could simply have a decline. With the team not being aggressive financially, the Uggla signing is a real problem, though not one they can really do anything about at this point. At the time, I argued that the Braves were going to pay for Uggla’s decline, and while that doesn’t appear wrong yet, it’s also had a nasty chain effect in the lineup. The mediocre, overpaid second baseman pushed the perfectly adequate incumbent second baseman into left, where he had less value and now that contract is hindering the Braves from going after a real hitter in the outfield, such as Carlos Beltran. And given Uggla’s age and defense, if Andrelton Simmons fares well in his next stop, Uggla may be the third-best middle infielder on the Braves by 2013, with 3 years and $39 million remaining on his contract.
So the Braves are going to have to bite the bullet and make some tough decisions with their pitchers. As tempting as it is to have an awesome surplus of pitchers, at the major league level, and in the minors, surpluses can easily evaporate if you don’t use them. Jair Jurrjens is the source of a lot of trade rumors and that’s the right idea - Jurrjens is probably the pitcher with the best ratio of prospects he can fetch vs. surplus value if the Braves keep him. Hanson’s the better pitcher if healthy and if they traded him now, they’d be selling at the lower; Hanson’s the one with ace potential, so the lottery ticket worth hanging onto.
Next Up: Colorado Rockies
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Brian McCann L C 28 .270 .354 .458 140 493 58 133 27 0 22 79 61 93 4 2 119 Freddie Freeman L 1B 22 .279 .344 .455 156 549 72 153 32 1 21 83 52 122 5 4 115 Jason Heyward L RF 22 .255 .360 .427 146 487 71 124 25 4 17 61 75 115 12 4 113 Chipper Jones B 3B 40 .260 .343 .438 102 361 45 94 23 1 13 54 48 64 3 1 110 Dan Uggla R 2B 32 .248 .330 .451 150 557 83 138 24 1 29 82 65 147 2 3 110 Martin Prado R LF 28 .281 .325 .417 136 545 76 153 32 3 12 61 36 68 4 5 100 Michael Bourn L CF 29 .270 .331 .354 155 622 94 168 28 9 2 46 55 128 56 13 86 Christopher CarterL LF 29 .268 .312 .416 119 385 37 103 19 1 12 57 24 58 1 1 96 David Ross R C 35 .239 .333 .413 54 138 15 33 7 1 5 22 19 43 0 1 102 Eric Hinske L LF 34 .234 .316 .413 108 235 30 55 12 0 10 33 27 68 1 1 96 Joseph TerdoslavicB 1B 23 .240 .288 .411 155 584 62 140 40 3 18 74 38 152 1 0 87 Matt Diaz R RF 34 .255 .307 .375 101 259 30 66 12 2 5 31 15 60 5 2 84 Tyler Pastornicky R SS 22 .261 .311 .363 146 568 75 148 21 5 9 53 41 85 28 12 82 Jordan Parraz R RF 27 .248 .318 .373 126 459 59 114 25 4 8 50 37 98 6 6 87 Brooks Conrad B 3B 32 .223 .296 .386 107 233 32 52 12 1 8 33 23 74 5 1 84 Drew Sutton B 2B 29 .238 .320 .355 102 324 39 77 19 2 5 35 36 86 4 3 83 Stefan Gartrell R RF 28 .227 .285 .393 136 512 60 116 24 2 19 71 37 158 4 2 82 Jose Constanza L LF 28 .263 .310 .322 130 475 67 125 8 7 2 35 32 73 27 9 72 Mauro Gomez R 1B 27 .234 .281 .386 137 534 57 125 29 2 16 70 31 173 3 1 79 Josh Wilson R SS 31 .241 .288 .351 103 291 35 70 16 2 4 27 13 59 4 1 72 Ruben Gotay B 2B 29 .228 .321 .330 130 430 52 98 16 2 8 43 58 100 5 4 78 Adam Milligan L RF 24 .221 .271 .395 67 258 24 57 12 3 9 29 14 97 2 2 78 Andrelton Simmons R SS 22 .274 .309 .348 156 621 72 170 29 7 1 51 29 61 21 21 78 Jack Wilson R 2B 34 .257 .289 .330 83 261 30 67 14 1 1 22 12 39 4 2 68 Brandon Hicks R SS 26 .202 .272 .348 128 425 50 86 16 2 14 42 37 165 9 3 67 Julio Lugo R SS 36 .236 .293 .308 64 182 20 43 6 2 1 18 14 37 4 2 64 Shawn Bowman R 3B 27 .221 .263 .349 97 358 36 79 15 2 9 31 18 119 2 2 65 Mycal Jones R CF 25 .209 .279 .321 129 507 66 106 26 2 9 44 44 160 14 6 63 Luis Durango B CF 26 .244 .318 .272 140 463 69 113 7 3 0 29 49 86 28 14 62 Wes Helms R 3B 36 .216 .278 .295 98 190 17 41 7 1 2 21 13 53 0 1 56 J.C. Boscan R C 32 .203 .257 .259 74 251 19 51 11 0 1 16 16 63 1 1 41 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Brian McCann AV Freddie Freeman Jason Heyward FR/144 EX/120 Chipper Jones FR/94 Dan Uggla FR/114 Martin Prado VG/99 FR/79 AV/93 AV/98 Michael Bourn VG/73 Christopher Carter FR/122 FR/125 FR/125 David Ross AV Eric Hinske AV/93 PO/108 AV/87 AV/83 Joseph Terdoslavich FR/122 PO/112 Matt Diaz AV/106 AV/104 Tyler Pastornicky VG/118 AV/133 Jordan Parraz AV/94 VG/136 Brooks Conrad AV/114 FR/124 FR/110 FR/111 Drew Sutton VG/88 FR/107 FR/111 PO/99 AV/133 FR/120 Stefan Gartrell AV/96 AV/96 Jose Constanza VG/106 AV/123 AV/75 Mauro Gomez FR/137 PO/115 Josh Wilson AV/117 AV/99 AV/108 AV/122 AV/117 Ruben Gotay AV/99 FR/138 FR/123 Adam Milligan AV/110 AV/114 Andrelton Simmons VG/120 Jack Wilson AV/94 VG/116 VG/83 Brandon Hicks AV/115 AV/106 VG/104 AV/134 Julio Lugo PO/89 FR/101 PO/112 FR/118 Shawn Bowman AV/105 AV/134 Mycal Jones PO/197 VG/106 Luis Durango VG/115 AV/134 VG/115 Wes Helms AV/116 FR/110 J.C. Boscan VG Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Tommy Hanson R 25 3.20 13 7 29 29 171.3 146 61 16 54 170 122 Brandon Beachy R 25 3.32 8 5 26 26 152.0 133 56 15 48 166 118 Tim Hudson R 36 3.60 11 8 26 26 162.7 156 65 14 47 107 109 Jair Jurrjens R 26 3.81 11 8 25 25 156.0 153 66 15 51 105 103 Julio Teheran R 21 3.85 11 9 28 27 152.0 146 65 13 58 121 102 Mike Minor L 24 4.04 9 8 32 32 178.3 174 80 20 62 168 97 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Arodys Vizcaino R 21 4.11 8 8 22 22 105.0 107 48 10 33 79 95 J.J. Hoover R 24 4.19 7 7 37 20 116.0 114 54 11 53 102 94 Randall Delgado R 22 4.76 7 9 29 29 151.3 156 80 20 69 121 82 Yohan Flande L 26 4.94 7 9 28 22 133.0 161 73 11 45 74 79 Zeke Spruill R 22 4.95 7 9 23 22 125.3 146 69 14 39 63 79 Todd Redmond R 27 5.05 7 10 26 25 144.3 157 81 23 51 102 78 Erik Cordier R 26 5.88 5 10 23 22 101.0 115 66 12 72 63 67 Chris Masters L 24 6.03 5 9 27 24 125.3 144 84 19 81 82 65 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Craig Kimbrel R 24 2.21 6 2 73 0 73.3 46 18 5 39 116 177 Jonny Venters L 27 2.77 6 2 83 0 84.3 64 26 5 41 94 141 Eric O’Flaherty L 27 2.93 3 2 73 0 61.3 54 20 4 20 54 134 Cristhian MartinezR 30 3.61 3 2 49 0 72.3 69 29 7 17 57 109 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Peter Moylan R 33 3.79 3 3 52 0 40.3 37 17 3 21 36 103 Jairo Asencio R 28 3.82 4 3 56 0 66.0 62 28 6 27 63 103 Scott Linebrink R 35 3.96 4 3 53 0 52.3 51 23 6 18 46 99 Cory Gearrin R 26 4.10 4 3 53 0 68.0 64 31 6 31 61 96 Anthony Varvaro R 27 4.26 4 4 52 0 67.7 58 32 6 50 67 92 Jaye Chapman R 25 4.33 3 3 50 0 62.3 59 30 6 35 59 90 Stephen Marek R 28 4.36 2 2 33 0 33.0 31 16 3 18 29 90 Dusty Hughes L 30 4.72 2 3 52 4 68.7 71 36 7 35 56 83 Adam Russell R 29 4.73 3 4 55 0 59.0 60 31 5 35 41 83 Billy Bullock R 24 4.81 3 4 55 0 58.0 55 31 6 43 62 81 Dustin Richardson L 28 4.90 2 2 50 0 60.7 58 33 7 45 58 80 Rowdy Hardy L 29 4.94 3 4 38 0 62.0 73 34 6 24 36 79 Robert Fish L 24 5.15 2 3 37 0 43.7 45 25 6 25 39 76 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Chipper Jones .301 .397 .525 2584 9297 1645 2795 572 40 478 1663 1543 1478 154 139 Brian McCann .269 .344 .443 2236 7909 877 2127 444 2 309 1220 858 1255 66 110 Jason Heyward .253 .373 .435 2475 8100 1242 2050 431 65 304 1043 1462 1851 169 119 Dan Uggla .251 .329 .450 1850 6970 1045 1747 337 19 338 997 767 1678 31 107 Michael Bourn .269 .329 .353 1615 6009 883 1615 261 82 27 424 523 1184 487 85 Martin Prado .281 .327 .414 1276 4931 671 1388 298 24 102 536 335 575 31 100 Julio Lugo .267 .331 .380 1434 4991 713 1334 246 36 81 498 456 923 203 85 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Tim Hudson 235 144 0 3.54 513 514 3351 3188 1317 278 1010 2228 119 Tommy Hanson 177 108 0 3.25 404 404 2407 2034 869 248 762 2419 121 Jair Jurrjens 158 124 0 3.73 381 381 2338 2258 969 231 792 1613 106 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Brian McCann C 59% 29% 9% 3% 0% Dave Nilsson Johnny Edwards Darrell Porter Freddie Freeman 1B 13% 28% 21% 24% 14% Kent Hrbek Billy Butler Will Clark Jason Heyward RF 22% 29% 18% 16% 14% Dave Clark Matt Winters Sid Bream Chipper Jones 3B 19% 27% 24% 19% 12% Gary Gaetti Ken Caminiti Ron Cey Dan Uggla 2B 40% 20% 17% 15% 8% Rico Petrocelli Cecil Fielder Troy Glaus Martin Prado LF 1% 9% 15% 27% 48% Johnny Groth John Gall Luis Montanez Michael Bourn CF 15% 19% 28% 23% 15% Vince Coleman Omar Moreno Kenny Lofton Christopher CarterLF 2% 6% 12% 24% 56% Dee Brown Daryle Ward Jim Bowie David Ross C 16% 24% 23% 24% 13% Tom Wilson Jim Leyritz Damian Miller Eric Hinske LF 3% 8% 12% 23% 54% Paul Sorrento Kevin Barker Mike Hegan Joseph Terdoslavic1B 0% 3% 6% 22% 69% Drew Denson Jason Hart Todd Benzinger Matt Diaz RF 1% 3% 5% 12% 80% Hector Lopez Gary Ward Jason Michaels Tyler Pastornicky SS 9% 12% 22% 25% 31% Jonathan Herrera Omar Infante Adrian Cardenas Jordan Parraz RF 0% 2% 5% 13% 80% Jordan Czarniecki Dan Peltier Chris Nowak Brooks Conrad 3B 2% 7% 13% 24% 55% Scott Stahoviak Cody Ransom Dave McKay Drew Sutton 2B 3% 5% 10% 22% 60% Bobby Scales Dick Green Bret Barberie Stefan Gartrell RF 0% 1% 3% 9% 86% John-Ford Griffin Dan Grummitt Greg Sain Jose Constanza LF 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% Kerry Robinson Nyjer Morgan Alex Sanchez Mauro Gomez 1B 0% 0% 1% 10% 88% Terry Lee Ryan Mulhern Chris Cron Josh Wilson SS 2% 3% 11% 24% 60% Eddie Zosky Kevin Polcovich Travis Dawkins Ruben Gotay 2B 3% 2% 4% 13% 77% Mark Kiger Jeff Patzke Casey Benjamin Adam Milligan RF 0% 1% 2% 7% 89% Ron Kittle Doug Frobel Jim Edmonds Andrelton Simmons SS 0% 2% 9% 22% 66% Chin Hu Steve Sax Ozzie Guillen Jack Wilson 2B 0% 1% 2% 6% 92% Garth Iorg Alvaro Espinoza Billy Martin Brandon Hicks SS 1% 3% 8% 18% 70% Cody Ransom Blake Whealy Kelly Dransfeldt Julio Lugo SS 1% 1% 3% 9% 86% Mark Belanger Jose Cruz Casey Candaele Shawn Bowman 3B 0% 1% 1% 3% 95% Aaron Herr Juan Richardson Raul Tablado Mycal Jones CF 0% 0% 2% 6% 92% Gary Crabtree Michael Thomas Jeremy Ware Luis Durango CF 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% Dennis Webb Alex Cole Carl Loadenthal Wes Helms 3B 0% 0% 1% 1% 97% Jeff Branson Jason Wood Jim Morrison J.C. Boscan C 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Charlie Greene Chad Moeller George Mitterwald Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Craig Kimbrel RP 89% 6% 5% Mark Littell Gregg OlsonFrancisco Rodriguez Jonny Venters RP 72% 23% 5% Mitch Williams Rod Scurry Tug McGraw Eric O’Flaherty RP 62% 33% 5% Steve Hamilton Scott Stewart Dave Leiper Tommy Hanson SP 73% 22% 5% Josh Beckett Jake Peavy David Nied Brandon Beachy SP 67% 28% 5% Josh Beckett Bob Welch Jake Peavy Tim Hudson SP 46% 43% 11% Johnny Allen Orel Hershiser Derek Lowe Cristhian MartinezRP 25% 54% 21% Dan Giese Jeff Tam Larry Andersen Peter Moylan RP 29% 38% 33% Toby Borland Kane Davis Don Aase Jair Jurrjens SP 33% 56% 11% Joe Mays Mike Scott Greg Brummett Jairo Asencio RP 23% 51% 26% Colter Bean Mark Acre Ricky Bottalico Kris Medlen RP 16% 55% 30% Rusty Meacham Terry Leach Geoff Geary Julio Teheran SP 35% 54% 11% Kevin Brown Jason Jennings Todd Eggertsen Scott Linebrink RP 16% 46% 38% Randy St. Claire Rick White Kerry Ligtenberg Mike Minor SP 24% 58% 18% Jeff Francis Mark Guthrie Randy Wolf Cory Gearrin RP 10% 51% 39% Sal Urso J.J. Trujillo Brad Salmon Arodys Vizcaino SP 22% 55% 23% Mark Knudson Scott Chiamparino Marty Janzen J.J. Hoover SP 18% 52% 29% Jeff Jones Ken Howell Brian Wood Anthony Varvaro RP 7% 43% 50% Bart Miadich Jim Stoops Doug Bochtler Jaye Chapman RP 6% 37% 57% Ryan Bukvich Santiago Ramirez Billy Sadler Stephen Marek RP 12% 35% 53% Doug Robertson Franklyn German Steve Schmoll Dusty Hughes RP 1% 21% 78% C.J. Nitkowski Randy Williams Tim Adkins Adam Russell RP 3% 26% 70% Jake Robbins Jarod Juelsgaard Ryan Henderson Randall Delgado SP 3% 32% 65% Kevin Gross Ryan Dempster Boof Bonser Billy Bullock RP 3% 21% 77% Dana Ridenour Franklyn German Chris Schroder Dustin Richardson RP 2% 16% 82% Kevin Tolar Greg McCarthy Eric Eckenstahler Rowdy Hardy RP 1% 17% 82% Jon Switzer Mark Watson John Cummings Yohan Flande SP 1% 22% 77% Jeff Johnson Jeff Mutis Bobby Livingston Zeke Spruill SP 1% 24% 75% Nate Cornejo Tim Kester Sergio Mitre Todd Redmond SP 1% 17% 82% Mike Oquist Joe Slusarski Travis Harper Robert Fish RP 2% 16% 82% Jerry Blevins Scott Holcomb Jesus Pena Luis Avilan RP 0% 6% 94% John Thomas Renay Bryand Steve Kline Steven Shell RP 0% 6% 93% Barry Johnson Mike Villano Alan Fowlkes Erik Cordier SP 0% 2% 98% Doug Gogolewski Edwin Morel Mark Woodyard Chris Masters SP 0% 1% 99% Brian Adams Andrew Martin Lex Luger Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Brian McCann 11% 21% 18% 1% 0% 13% 12% 0% Freddie Freeman 18% 13% 20% 10% 0% 19% 10% 0% Jason Heyward 5% 30% 8% 1% 4% 4% 8% 4% Chipper Jones 9% 15% 9% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% Dan Uggla 2% 5% 14% 0% 0% 43% 6% 0% Martin Prado 19% 2% 1% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% Michael Bourn 11% 5% 0% 2% 44% 0% 0% 96% Christopher Carter 9% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% David Ross 6% 15% 7% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% Eric Hinske 2% 3% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Joseph Terdoslavic 0% 0% 2% 27% 1% 4% 0% 0% Matt Diaz 6% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tyler Pastornicky 5% 1% 3% 1% 9% 2% 1% 34% Jordan Parraz 2% 2% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% Brooks Conrad 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Drew Sutton 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Stefan Gartrell 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% Jose Constanza 6% 1% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 31% Mauro Gomez 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% Josh Wilson 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ruben Gotay 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Adam Milligan 1% 0% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Andrelton Simmons 12% 0% 0% 4% 24% 0% 0% 16% Jack Wilson 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brandon Hicks 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Julio Lugo 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Shawn Bowman 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mycal Jones 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Luis Durango 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 37% Wes Helms 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% J.C. Boscan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Craig Kimbrel 90% 95% 99% 0% 94% Jonny Venters 69% 93% 94% 0% 97% Eric O'Flaherty 54% 90% 43% 11% 95% Tommy Hanson 38% 90% 81% 3% 77% Brandon Beachy 33% 85% 96% 5% 72% Tim Hudson 14% 68% 4% 12% 84% Cristhian Martinez 19% 68% 16% 44% 69% Peter Moylan 21% 58% 45% 0% 85% Jair Jurrjens 7% 62% 1% 3% 71% Jairo Asencio 17% 60% 66% 1% 76% Kris Medlen 12% 65% 23% 7% 71% Julio Teheran 8% 61% 14% 0% 84% Scott Linebrink 11% 46% 42% 9% 62% Mike Minor 5% 50% 67% 1% 57% Cory Gearrin 7% 46% 48% 0% 84% Arodys Vizcaino 5% 48% 7% 6% 74% J.J. Hoover 3% 41% 39% 0% 75% Anthony Varvaro 5% 36% 77% 0% 84% Jaye Chapman 4% 36% 65% 0% 69% Stephen Marek 12% 37% 47% 0% 75% Dusty Hughes 1% 17% 20% 0% 67% Adam Russell 2% 18% 6% 0% 81% Randall Delgado 0% 9% 13% 0% 29% Billy Bullock 2% 18% 89% 0% 59% Dustin Richardson 1% 13% 67% 0% 67% Rowdy Hardy 1% 14% 0% 2% 80% Yohan Flande 0% 6% 0% 3% 90% Zeke Spruill 0% 6% 0% 6% 60% Todd Redmond 0% 4% 1% 1% 11% Robert Fish 1% 13% 46% 0% 46% Luis Avilan 0% 3% 1% 0% 37% Steven Shell 0% 3% 2% 1% 24% Erik Cordier 0% 0% 0% 0% 45% Chris Masters 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 22, 2011 at 07:40 PM | 28 comment(s)
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1. Boxkutter Posted: December 22, 2011 at 08:38 PM (#4022135)Can the Braves afford to pay him to pitch? I don't know!
Edit: seriously though, Crush, Test, and Luger? Those are some horrible wrestling comps. If the baseball Masterpiece dies young and/or is involved in the death of (for example) Chipper Jones' ex-wife, I'm going to have to cite his ZiPS projection and say you saw it coming.
So, I guess we should hold off planning the HoF induction weekend?
With the team not being aggressive financially, the Uggla signing is a real problem, though not one they can really do anything about at this point.
You want to get mad at the Braves for not spending money but when they do - coughDerekLowecough - you think maybe it's for the best.
On the other hand, the offense was a legit problem last year, even before the September choke job. It's not overreacting to say that the offense needs a jump start. And the NL East keeps getting tougher. The Phillies are basically the NL's version of the Red Sox (without the nervous breakdown of this past off-season), the Marlins are throwing around money and the Nationals are gearing up to become a serious contender. And then there are the Mets.
Heyward career projection, ZiPS 2012: 253/373/435, 9500 PA, >1200 R, >1000 RBI, 304 HR, 119 OPS+
Ouch!
Those McCann comps are strangely depressing. McCann already has more WAR in his career than Nilsson or Edwards. Porter was pretty good I guess.
They're based on "recent" production. Nilsson still doesn't look like a great comp (about 6-6.5 oWAR 25-27 if you adjust for playing time) compared to McCann (just under 10) but Edwards had about 10 if you adjust for playing time. Meanwhile, from ages 25-27, Porter was a god -- 1767 PA, 128 OPS+, 14.7 oWAR.
But I've never quite been clear the extent to which the ZiPS comps are meant to be "this is who he's been like the last 3-4 years" or "this is who he will be like this year (at same age X)" or "this is who he will be like for the next X years." I assume the middle one but, like all comps, it's a lot more fun to treat it like the last one. :-)
You try finding comps for 40-year-old 3B. :-) At least Gaetti played at 40, Caminiti didn't even play at 39 (Cey did but not at 40).
Also Gaetti had that torrid run with the Cubs at 39 and finished the season with a 121 OPS+. Granted, on the surface at least, Nettles seems a better comp than Gaetti.
All of this is true, but as of right now, barring any further moves, neither the Marlins or the Nationals project to finish ahead of the Braves in 2012. They've improved, but they were *really friggin' bad* last year.
The Nats went 80-81. They now get 120 more innings of Strasburg, 6 or 7 more Zimmermann starts, and Gio Gonzalez. Werth, Zimmerman, and LaRoche are highly likely to provide significantly more value than in 2011. Sure, Morse could regress, and someone's gotta get hurt somewhere, but the Nationals would seem to project in the high-80s right now. They look like a toss-up with the Braves to me.
If we're going to apply the best case scenario to the Nats we have to apply the same rose-colored predictions to the Braves.
Prado, Uggla and Heyward all "provide significantly more value than in 2011." McCann doesn't collapse down the stretch again. Beachy/Minor/Teheran provide better innings than Lowe/Minor/Beachy.
All of a sudden, the Braves are 90+ wins and the Nats are still looking up from 3rd place.
Nettles, as you note, did have a heck of an age 40 season (3.1 WAR, all offense) but was replacement level after that. Still that extra WAR only catches him up to Chipper. Gaetti was terrible after 39 and Boggs added only .4 WAR. So Chipper can take a clear lead this year.
They might be. We should wait till the ZiPS projections to find out! Harper could be already awesome for all we know.
I like the Hrbek comp; Herbie's actually the player of whom I'm reminded most when I watch Freddie. Would have liked to see a career projection.
-- MWE
Biggest understatement ever?
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