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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Friday, December 30, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore OriolesThe Orioles play in a beautiful, clean, park, with convenient light rail access and a short trip from Baltimore's Inner Harbor, Fells Point, and Canton. For crabs, take Eastern Boulevard to Mr. Bill's Terrace Inn or head to L.P. Steamers near Fort McHenry. If crabs aren't your thing, I'm very partial to Della Norte in Little Italy or, if you want to try Baltimore's non- barbecue barbecue, pit beef, Chaps Pit Beef or Pioneer Pit Beef.Next Up: Milwaukee Brewers
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Nick Markakis L RF 28 .282 .350 .416 156 620 80 175 37 2 14 72 64 91 10 3 107 Luke Scott L LF 34 .254 .332 .468 97 331 46 84 18 1 17 48 38 79 1 1 114 Adam Jones R CF 26 .278 .322 .447 156 597 83 166 27 4 22 82 32 122 11 5 106 Matt Wieters B C 26 .268 .334 .429 148 527 67 141 26 1 19 73 53 107 1 0 105 Brian Roberts B 2B 34 .265 .332 .411 80 321 48 85 22 2 7 36 33 55 14 4 100 J.J. Hardy R SS 29 .268 .316 .446 129 493 66 132 24 2 20 62 35 85 0 1 104 Mark Reynolds R 3B 28 .218 .320 .461 151 532 85 116 22 1 35 88 75 216 11 5 108 Vladimir Guerrero R DH 37 .284 .316 .429 137 536 61 152 25 1 17 70 20 55 2 3 99 Nolan Reimold R LF 28 .246 .325 .416 133 459 61 113 20 2 18 62 49 107 9 3 99 Chris Davis L 3B 26 .250 .299 .440 146 536 61 134 29 2 23 72 36 177 4 1 97 L.J. Hoes R LF 22 .281 .337 .358 150 570 63 160 24 1 6 64 46 102 18 12 89 Joe Mahoney L 1B 25 .254 .299 .380 124 468 51 119 23 3 10 60 27 130 12 3 83 Endy Chavez L CF 34 .270 .301 .361 74 233 24 63 8 2 3 17 11 24 9 2 78 Ryan Adams R 2B 25 .260 .307 .381 131 515 58 134 28 2 10 48 31 136 4 4 85 Manny Machado R SS 19 .248 .303 .389 126 491 48 122 22 4 13 53 38 105 10 9 86 Brandon Snyder R 1B 25 .249 .297 .379 138 515 56 128 27 2 12 68 32 125 2 2 82 Robert Andino R 2B 28 .249 .301 .358 126 433 57 108 21 1 8 38 30 88 11 4 78 Xavier Avery L CF 22 .260 .310 .342 156 634 70 165 29 4 5 38 41 171 35 17 77 Steven Tolleson R 3B 28 .242 .303 .347 124 484 61 117 23 2 8 42 40 102 11 4 76 Matt Antonelli R 3B 27 .233 .318 .351 88 313 39 73 15 2 6 27 37 68 4 4 82 Josh Bell B 3B 25 .232 .286 .383 138 504 61 117 21 2 17 58 38 149 3 3 79 Matt Angle L CF 26 .250 .314 .304 143 559 79 140 15 3 3 36 49 105 32 8 69 Ryan Flaherty L 2B 25 .238 .289 .376 143 543 61 129 27 3 14 66 39 131 6 6 78 John Hester R C 28 .238 .287 .372 98 336 42 80 17 2 8 37 22 90 4 3 77 Caleb Joseph R C 26 .247 .293 .345 119 438 41 108 17 1 8 45 26 86 3 3 72 Rhyne Hughes L 1B 28 .220 .273 .376 115 441 48 97 23 2 14 48 29 158 3 2 74 Tyler Henson R RF 24 .240 .288 .332 143 546 65 131 26 3 6 49 35 161 10 6 67 Brandon Waring R 3B 26 .210 .270 .354 141 528 56 111 24 2 16 58 36 200 1 1 67 Pedro Florimon B SS 25 .234 .288 .319 138 492 50 115 21 3 5 49 34 146 16 11 65 Kyle Hudson L LF 25 .248 .311 .279 137 499 62 124 11 2 0 26 42 131 30 16 62 Taylor Teagarden R C 28 .197 .264 .345 74 249 26 49 8 1 9 23 21 109 0 0 63 Brendan Harris R SS 31 .226 .273 .323 129 464 44 105 20 2 7 39 26 90 1 1 61 Antoan Richardson B LF 28 .210 .311 .247 96 295 45 62 6 1 1 18 36 87 14 4 54 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Nick Markakis AV/87 AV/67 Luke Scott AV/115 FR/83 Adam Jones FR/120 Matt Wieters VG Brian Roberts AV/87 J.J. Hardy VG/66 Mark Reynolds FR/137 PO/176 Vladimir Guerrero PO/121 Nolan Reimold FR/141 AV/118 FR/123 Chris Davis FR/95 FR/150 LJ Hoes AV/203 FR/111 AV/126 AV/126 Joe Mahoney FR/130 FR/116 Endy Chavez VG/91 AV/95 VG/97 Ryan Adams VG/165 VG/104 Manny Machado AV/110 Brandon Snyder AV/144 FR/111 Robert Andino AV/88 VG/92 AV/128 AV/118 Xavier Avery VG/147 AV/200 Steven Tolleson VG/127 AV/108 FR/157 FR/132 FR/106 FR/115 Matt Antonelli AV/101 AV/93 FR/112 AV/113 Josh Bell AV/118 Matt Angle VG/113 VG/66 VG/117 Ryan Flaherty AV/117 AV/90 AV/127 FR/117 AV/91 AV/103 John Hester FR FR/118 Caleb Joseph AV AV/118 Rhyne Hughes AV/116 AV/164 Tyler Henson PO/119 AV/125 AV/175 FR/123 AV/175 Brandon Waring AV/116 FR/124 Pedro Florimon VG/118 VG/143 Kyle Hudson VG/98 AV/102 VG/98 Taylor Teagarden AV Brendan Harris FR/115 PO/101 FR/92 PO/88 FR/117 Antoan Richardson VG/89 AV/70 VG/93 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Tsuyoshi Wada L 31 4.01 10 8 22 22 139.0 135 62 21 39 118 106 Jeremy Guthrie R 33 4.30 11 11 28 28 178.0 179 85 23 44 100 99 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Zach Britton L 24 4.85 10 12 30 29 156.0 172 84 16 61 96 88 Brad Bergesen R 26 4.95 6 8 30 20 134.7 150 74 19 41 77 86 Tommy Hunter R 25 4.96 7 9 29 22 136.0 156 75 20 35 76 86 Jake Arrieta R 26 5.13 8 11 25 24 131.7 138 75 19 65 94 83 Alfredo Simon R 31 5.15 4 5 27 10 78.7 87 45 11 29 54 83 Brian Matusz L 25 5.35 7 11 26 26 136.3 153 81 21 53 100 80 Dana Eveland L 28 5.44 7 11 27 24 134.0 160 81 14 59 74 78 Jo-Jo Reyes L 27 5.81 4 8 22 19 100.7 123 65 17 38 59 73 Ryan Edell L 28 5.95 5 9 27 21 124.0 167 82 19 29 69 72 Rick Vanden Hurk R 27 6.03 6 11 26 24 125.3 148 84 25 47 75 71 Oliver Drake R 25 6.13 6 12 26 24 138.0 185 94 18 51 68 70 Chris Tillman R 24 6.20 6 12 27 27 135.0 163 93 25 59 82 69 Michael Ballard L 28 6.29 5 10 26 21 123.0 164 86 22 35 65 68 Mitch Atkins R 26 6.38 4 9 27 22 120.0 148 85 24 53 72 67 Robert Bundy R 22 6.42 5 11 25 21 108.0 136 77 18 54 56 66 Timothy Bascom R 27 6.52 5 11 27 21 118.7 161 86 19 45 56 65 Chris George L 32 6.56 3 6 23 15 93.3 124 68 16 40 43 65 Steve Johnson R 24 6.72 4 10 27 27 128.7 160 96 24 73 78 63 Ryohei Tanaka R 29 7.18 4 10 27 18 100.3 150 80 20 29 40 59 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Darren O'Day R 29 3.61 2 2 52 0 47.3 43 19 6 13 45 118 Jim Johnson R 29 3.90 4 4 54 0 64.7 66 28 6 17 44 109 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Clay Rapada L 31 4.40 2 2 53 0 43.0 44 21 4 18 34 97 Pedro Strop R 27 4.43 4 5 58 0 63.0 64 31 5 33 55 96 Zach Phillips L 25 4.59 3 3 50 1 66.7 69 34 5 36 46 93 Kevin Gregg R 34 4.66 3 3 60 0 56.0 54 29 7 30 51 91 Daniel Klein R 23 4.70 2 2 17 0 30.7 32 16 4 10 24 91 Troy Patton L 26 4.73 3 4 51 0 64.7 71 34 7 22 39 90 Jason Berken R 28 4.78 2 3 47 0 58.3 63 31 8 22 45 89 Jon Link R 28 4.86 2 2 52 1 63.0 67 34 7 31 48 88 Willie Eyre R 33 4.95 4 5 48 1 63.7 71 35 6 27 36 86 Jeremy Accardo R 30 4.99 3 3 52 0 57.7 66 32 6 26 33 85 Miguel Socolovich R 25 5.28 3 5 40 2 59.7 64 35 7 36 44 81 Armando Gabino R 28 5.45 4 6 39 5 77.7 88 47 10 38 46 78 Mark Hendrickson L 38 5.61 2 4 35 0 61.0 73 38 10 20 33 76 Pedro Viola L 29 5.72 2 4 46 3 50.3 58 32 7 26 35 74 Mark Worrell R 29 5.87 2 4 47 0 46.0 53 30 7 22 28 73 Kyler Newby R 27 6.02 3 7 36 11 86.7 103 58 16 39 59 71 Will Startup L 27 6.03 1 2 23 0 37.3 44 25 7 17 20 71 Nick Bierbrodt L 34 6.14 1 1 30 0 36.7 44 25 5 22 18 69 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Vladimir Guerrero .311 .368 .531 2506 9566 1480 2978 540 49 489 1669 784 1120 186 133 Nick Markakis .282 .350 .423 2075 8146 1062 2301 490 28 199 993 836 1143 123 107 Adam Jones .271 .316 .433 2175 8173 1099 2218 363 54 282 1071 434 1575 129 100 J.J. Hardy .262 .311 .423 1870 7057 900 1850 326 25 254 861 509 1041 6 95 Matt Wieters .260 .324 .408 1985 7099 831 1844 336 13 229 921 680 1309 10 97 Brian Roberts .276 .344 .409 1588 6334 975 1746 431 41 111 630 677 957 326 100 Mark Reynolds .228 .322 .451 2019 7143 1092 1626 324 21 409 1120 932 2502 126 104 Luke Scott .257 .335 .471 1128 3718 492 957 224 21 176 534 424 820 16 113 Nolan Reimold .247 .324 .410 1046 3565 452 880 155 16 131 467 375 734 56 97 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Jeremy Guthrie 114 134 0 4.42 351 329 2128 2165 1044 292 592 1233 98 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Nick Markakis RF 9% 25% 22% 23% 21% Mark Grace Warren Cromartie Bruce Bochte Luke Scott LF 17% 29% 21% 19% 14% Paul Sorrento Johnny Grubb Henry Rodriguez Adam Jones CF 23% 25% 29% 16% 5% Glenn Braggs Darryl Motley Franklin Gutierrez Matt Wieters C 27% 37% 20% 13% 3% Geovany Soto Ronny Paulino John Ramos Brian Roberts 2B 29% 19% 20% 20% 12% Alan Bannister Bill Pecota Tony Graffanino J.J. Hardy SS 31% 29% 26% 11% 3% Tracy Woodson Mike Cervenak Jose Castro Mark Reynolds 3B 19% 28% 23% 17% 13% Troy Glaus Dean Palmer Johnny Vergez Vladimir Guerrero DH 1% 8% 13% 33% 45% Dante Bichette Tommy Davis Steve Garvey Nolan Reimold LF 3% 13% 18% 28% 38% Ernie Young Adam Hyzdu Derrick White Chris Davis 3B 6% 16% 23% 27% 28% Roy Howell Brook Jacoby Jim Presley L.J. Hoes LF 0% 3% 7% 16% 73% Delmon Young Dale Holman Alex Romero Joe Mahoney 1B 0% 2% 3% 15% 79% Rod Allen LaVel Freeman Junior Felix Endy Chavez CF 3% 4% 12% 27% 54% Kerry Robinson Tike Redman Joe Orsulak Ryan Adams 2B 4% 5% 10% 23% 58% Hubie Brooks Mark Lewis Brook Jacoby Manny Machado SS 10% 11% 18% 21% 40% Jhonny Peralta Nelson Johnson Jose Castro Brandon Snyder 1B 0% 0% 1% 9% 89% Bryan LahairGuillermo Velasquez Ron Coomer Robert Andino 2B 3% 3% 7% 20% 67% Tommy Shields Steve Springer Kevin Polcovich Xavier Avery CF 2% 3% 9% 21% 66% Mel Hall Trench Davis Mike Neill Steven Tolleson 3B 0% 2% 4% 12% 82% Andy Beinbrink Bert Pena Josh Labandeira Matt Antonelli 3B 1% 2% 5% 15% 78% Mike Moriarty Tony Schrager Danny Solano Josh Bell 3B 0% 2% 5% 15% 78% Ty Wigginton Les Pearsey Casey Webster Matt Angle CF 0% 2% 7% 22% 69% Bradley Coon Carl Loadenthal Curtis Goodwin Ryan Flaherty 2B 1% 3% 6% 15% 75% Oscar Salazar Brian Turner David Nix John Hester C 2% 5% 10% 27% 56% Jack Fimple Gerald Laird Eli Whiteside Caleb Joseph C 1% 4% 7% 19% 70% Maxim St. Pierre Bryan Kennedy Gary Bennett Rhyne Hughes 1B 0% 0% 1% 5% 95% Oreste Marrero Greg Sparks Randy Ruiz Tyler Henson RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Wil Culmer George Hinshaw Vernon Thomas Brandon Waring 3B 0% 1% 2% 5% 92% Jonathan Greene Lee Mitchell Ryan Minor Pedro Florimon SS 1% 1% 3% 10% 85% Ross Jones Curtis Wilkerson Bobby DeJardin Kyle Hudson LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% LaSchelle Tarver Leo Sutherland Bruce Fields Taylor Teagarden C 1% 2% 4% 12% 82% Roy Anderson Henry Mercedes Paul Chiaffredo Brendan Harris SS 0% 1% 3% 9% 87% Chris Petersen Juan Castro Jorge Velandia Antoan Richardson LF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Lou Frazier Troy Gingrich Ramon Sambo Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Darren O'Day RP 48% 38% 14% Justin Duchscherer Ugueth Urbina Trevor Hoffman Jim Johnson RP 25% 55% 20% Cory Bailey Mike Christopher Julio Mateo Tsuyoshi Wada SP 41% 48% 11% Bud Black Kenny Rogers John Candelaria Jeremy Guthrie SP 26% 56% 18% Doyle Alexander Bob Forsch Joaquin Andujar Clay Rapada RP 17% 41% 42% Eric Gunderson Mike Munoz Lance Painter Pedro Strop RP 9% 48% 43% Jim Stoops Roy Corcoran Sal Urso Zach Phillips RP 8% 44% 48% Pete Cappadona Carlos Vasquez Marcelino Lopez Kevin Gregg RP 8% 34% 58% Rich DeLucia Tim Stoddard Ryne Duren Daniel Klein RP 15% 37% 48% Terry Clark Rick Behenna Heath Bost Troy Patton RP 7% 38% 56% Erasmo Ramirez Ryan Meaux Steve Sharts Jason Berken RP 6% 37% 56% Derek Hasselhoff Hipolito Pichardo Joe Beckwith Zach Britton SP 5% 50% 45% Ed Vosberg Mark Thurmond Eric Gunderson Jon Link RP 3% 33% 65% Roy Corcoran Steve Wapnick Craig Pippin Brad Bergesen SP 4% 41% 55% Brian Holton Cory Lidle Kris Wilson Willie Eyre RP 7% 27% 65% Ricky Barlow Jim Coates Bob Scanlan Tommy Hunter SP 5% 45% 50% Jin Ho Cho Dave Eiland Brian Denman Jeremy Accardo RP 3% 24% 73% Mike Bumstead Jake Robbins Weston Weber Jake Arrieta SP 3% 31% 66% Charlie Puleo Tyler Walker John Patterson Alfredo Simon SP 1% 24% 75% Rafael Pina Dickie Noles Scott Taylor Miguel Socolovich RP 1% 19% 79% Marc Pisciotta Jason Gilfillan Anthony Chavez Brian Matusz SP 1% 23% 76% Mark Guthrie Rafael Novoa Brian McNichol Dana Eveland SP 1% 19% 80% Heath Murray Bill Krueger Jeff Mutis Armando Gabino RP 0% 11% 89% Tom McCarthy Corey Brittan Tim Lavigne Mark Hendrickson RP 4% 12% 83% Clyde Shoun Boom-Boom Beck Matt Herges Pedro Viola RP 1% 12% 87% Tim Adkins Jason Jimenez Ben Julianel Jo-Jo Reyes SP 0% 10% 90% Justin Hampson Derek Manning Michael Bacsik Mark Worrell RP 1% 8% 91% Chuck Smith Keith Shepherd Steve Mintz Ryan Edell SP 0% 8% 92% Scott Downs Heath Totten John Rheinecker Kyler Newby RP 0% 3% 97% Dave Gil Bo Hall Jonathan Johnson Will Startup RP 2% 8% 90% Dave Tomlin Jason Sekany John Hrusovsky Rick Vanden Hurk SP 0% 5% 95% Shane Bowers Jeremy Cummings Danny Tamayo Oliver Drake SP 0% 3% 97% Shane Loux Peter Bauer Michael Macdonald Nick Bierbrodt RP 2% 12% 86% Mike Venafro Marshall Bridges Pedro Borbon Chris Tillman SP 0% 2% 98% Phil Grundy Brian Schmack Jim Brower Michael Ballard SP 0% 3% 97% Scott Downs Buddy Groom Willie Collazo Mitch Atkins SP 0% 1% 99% Chris Mears Mark Nussbeck Edward Valdez Robert Bundy SP 0% 2% 98% Steve Stemle Travis Anderson Nick Masset Timothy Bascom SP 0% 1% 99% Pat Ahearne Felipe Lira Jim Magrane Chris George SP 0% 2% 98% Rick Krivda Brian Barnes Chris Michalak Steve Johnson SP 0% 0% 100% Matt Drews Keith Bucktrot Gary Knotts Ryohei Tanaka SP 0% 1% 99% Kris Wilson Tim McClaskey Joe Mays Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Nick Markakis 22% 16% 2% 21% 0% 2% 3% 4% Luke Scott 5% 8% 24% 0% 0% 2% 8% 0% Adam Jones 16% 2% 9% 1% 5% 14% 2% 1% Matt Wieters 8% 6% 5% 0% 0% 5% 2% 0% Brian Roberts 10% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% J.J. Hardy 9% 2% 10% 0% 1% 7% 2% 0% Mark Reynolds 0% 2% 21% 0% 0% 73% 6% 3% Vladimir Guerrero 23% 1% 5% 0% 0% 4% 1% 0% Nolan Reimold 1% 3% 2% 0% 0% 2% 1% 2% Chris Davis 2% 0% 8% 2% 0% 16% 1% 0% L.J. Hoes 20% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% Joe Mahoney 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Endy Chavez 17% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Ryan Adams 4% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% Manny Machado 3% 1% 5% 0% 3% 4% 2% 2% Brandon Snyder 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Robert Andino 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Xavier Avery 4% 1% 0% 4% 4% 0% 0% 75% Steven Tolleson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Matt Antonelli 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Josh Bell 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% Matt Angle 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 58% Ryan Flaherty 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% John Hester 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Caleb Joseph 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rhyne Hughes 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Tyler Henson 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% Brandon Waring 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% Pedro Florimon 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 4% Kyle Hudson 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% Taylor Teagarden 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brendan Harris 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Antoan Richardson 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Darren O'Day 38% 80% 64% 41% 44% Jim Johnson 19% 68% 3% 25% 73% Tsuyoshi Wada 11% 69% 31% 14% 18% Jeremy Guthrie 5% 51% 0% 37% 37% Clay Rapada 12% 49% 22% 3% 76% Pedro Strop 9% 50% 41% 0% 84% Zach Phillips 6% 39% 3% 0% 80% Kevin Gregg 5% 35% 54% 0% 44% Daniel Klein 15% 42% 19% 23% 42% Troy Patton 5% 31% 0% 7% 57% Jason Berken 4% 29% 11% 3% 37% Zach Britton 0% 19% 1% 0% 66% Jon Link 3% 29% 11% 0% 61% Brad Bergesen 0% 16% 0% 7% 27% Willie Eyre 5% 29% 3% 2% 66% Tommy Hunter 0% 17% 0% 26% 23% Jeremy Accardo 3% 21% 1% 1% 65% Jake Arrieta 0% 10% 3% 0% 28% Alfredo Simon 1% 16% 2% 1% 31% Miguel Socolovich 1% 16% 7% 0% 65% Brian Matusz 0% 6% 3% 0% 15% Dana Eveland 0% 3% 0% 0% 62% Armando Gabino 0% 6% 0% 0% 45% Mark Hendrickson 3% 14% 1% 15% 28% Pedro Viola 0% 9% 4% 0% 44% Jo-Jo Reyes 0% 1% 0% 0% 12% Mark Worrell 0% 6% 1% 1% 29% Ryan Edell 0% 1% 0% 50% 22% Kyler Newby 0% 1% 1% 0% 10% Will Startup 1% 6% 1% 2% 22% Rick Vanden Hurk 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% Oliver Drake 0% 0% 0% 1% 30% Nick Bierbrodt 2% 10% 1% 0% 46% Chris Tillman 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% Michael Ballard 0% 0% 0% 13% 7% Mitch Atkins 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Robert Bundy 0% 0% 0% 0% 11% Timothy Bascom 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% Chris George 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% Steve Johnson 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% Ryohei Tanaka 0% 0% 0% 14% 6% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Rockies Braves Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 30, 2011 at 06:15 PM | 48 comment(s)
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1. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: December 30, 2011 at 08:02 PM (#4025926)Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Vladimir Guerrero .311 .368 .531 2506 9566 1480 2978 540 49 489 1669 784 1120 186 133
Matusz and Tillman certainly didn't pan out as planned, though I guess Matusz gets one more year.
Also, it's interesting, but as much #### that gets talked about Palmeiro not having a peak, I don't see where Vlad's blows his away... if Vlad ends up with the career line that Zips projects, it would be pretty clearly an inferior career to Palmeiro.
Top Ten Seasons WAR
Palmeiro VS. Guerrero:
7.4........7.4
6.2........7.1
6.0........6.5
5.5........5.5
4.9........5.4
4.2........5.3
4.2........4.8
4.1........3.9
3.8........3.8
3.6........3.5
I'm not trying to bring Vlad down or anything, it's just very interesting to me as my gut told me that Vlad was a much more dynamic player than Palmeiro at his peak... and it's a lot closer that I would have guessed.
That doesn't bode well.
Wieters gets a 105, career is 100, had a 113 last year, he'll be 26, I would've guessed a 110 myself...
Markakis at 107? He was at 109 last year, 120 the year before, 117 for his career, I'd guessed 112...
Hardy at 104, coming off a 117, he's at 99 for his career, 2 straight sub 100 years leading into 2011, 104 looks reasonable
Jones at 106, 114 last year, 108 the year before, he'll be 26, I would guess, oh, 112 or so.
Reynolds at 108, 110 for career, 4 year sequence of 95, 127, 97, 119... yeah splitting the difference between his last two year is the best way to go- and that gets you to 108...
The thing is no one's projection looks "high" to me, either right on or low... I would LOVE to see Wieters put up a 140 just to see BPro do another 180 turn on him.
hmmm I'm pretty sure that Montero is going to outhit Matt...
I'm also pretty sure Wieters is going to be catching most of not all the next 5 years and Montero... will not.
I'm guessing that Wieters is going to put up 15-20 WAR over the next 5, as a 1b/dh type he's going to need to OPS+ 130 or so to get up there...
interesting question
Guerrero: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th
Palmeiro: 3rd, 6th, 9th, 9th
Will Clark: 1st, 3rd, 8th
Dave Parker: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th
Top 10 oWAR (to account for possible unreliability of defensive stats):
Guerrero: 3rd, 7th
Palmeiro: 7th, 8th, 10th
Will Clark: 1st, 3rd, 7th, 10th, 10th
Dave Parker: 1st, 3rd
Vladdy Finger guy7.6 7.2
7.0 6.6
6.5 6.4
6.3 5.9
5.5 5.5
5.2 4.9
4.9 4.8
3.8 4.6
3.4 4.3
3.2 4.0
53.4 54.2
Top 15 fWAR
A-Rod 79.7Bonds 76.0
A Jones 65.0
C Jones 58.7
Albert 57.2
Rolen 56.0
Helton 54.9
Abreu 54.5
Vlad 53.4
Giles 52.2
Jeter 52.0
Edmonds 49.0
Kent 46.2
Manny 46.1
Beltran 45.6
Top 15 bWAR 98-07
Rk Player WAR/pos1 Barry Bonds 77.7
2 Alex Rodriguez 76.2
3 Albert Pujols 57.8
4 Andruw Jones 56.8
5 Chipper Jones 55.4
6 Vladimir Guerrero 53.2
7 Derek Jeter 52.8
8 Todd Helton 52.8
9 Bobby Abreu 50.8
10 Jim Edmonds 50.5
11 Scott Rolen 49.6
12 Jason Giambi 48.2
13 Manny Ramirez 45.7
14 Jeff Kent 43.6
15 Carlos Beltran 43.5
Note: Giles at 39.7 bWAR, ranks 22nd.
I think one of you has the wrong Montero. The question asked about Miguel, you seem to be talking about Jesus.
The D-Backs C will be 28, has averaged a 114 OPS+ over the last 3 years and 7.2 WAR. Chone has rated him as poor, average and good on defense the last three years :-) so let's call it average. As far as I know there's no talk of moving him to 1B.
Wieters will be 26, may have had his breakout as a hitter, appears good defensively and has 7.5 WAR over the last 3 years.
Probably advantage Wieters but it's close. As to Jesus Montero, I leave that to the crystal ball crowd. :-)
careful now, they might revoke your libertarian membership card. :-)
Miguel Montero had a sudden defensive awakening, at least with regards to his throwing game, during the middle of 2011. He all of a sudden stopped making throwing errors, and started throwing out 40% of would be base stealers. FWIW, the newer pitch framing metrics rank him quite highly too. He has made a lot of strides the last year or two. I think he is at least average, and likely good now.
You look at those projections, and are worried about the offense?!? They have NO pitching, and about 2 starters, who are above average defensively.
They might have a shot at 900 runs allowed. In this run environment. Unbelievable.
We're supposed to have cards?
Fancy Pants, I actually never looked at the pitching projections. Now that I have... yes, it's not good.
My son was going to take me for my birthday in August but that was the month of 20" of rain and the game was rained out. I saw the penultimate game in Memorial Stadium but haven't been to the "new" stadium yet. Go figure.
As Banta wrote, it's not easy to imagine someone paying Vlad to be pretty bad for three more years. Though if he's willing to play for a couple mil a year and never gets much below league average during any season, I suppose GMs have done stranger things than pay poor DHs with illustrious careers to hang around forever.
BBRef doesn't have him listed as under contract for 2012--has he signed yet?
Tickets are dirt cheap, you can bring in food and non-alcoholic drinks, of which there is plenty just outside the stadium, and I haven't found a bad seat yet. Pick a non-Red Sox/Yankees game, preferably at night in the middle of summer, get seats in the Eutaw St Bleachers or "splurge" for box seats, grab some burgers, dogs, and drinks at a vendor across the street, and root for the O's. They'll probably lose, but it'll be a good time and cheaper than dinner and a movie.
It's really too bad they don't have a couple stars, especially out of the crop that might have been (Jones, Wieters). Of course it would be more fun to watch, and I doubt ticket prices would go up much since Baltimore is first and foremost a football town.
This team probably has less upside, though.
I'm trying to think of other parks with as much urban fun to be had a short walk from the gates, though, and the only one I can come up with is Wrigley. But I haven't been to all of them. Other nominees?
Oh, and Dan erred: it's Della Notte. Chiapparelli's is also very good.
It appears that we won't have the worst pitching in the league.
With Ben Grieve, Eric Hinske, Hank Blalock, and Eric Chavez on hold.
And yes, Obrycki's is closed. I think they are moving.
As for Vlad-I see him as a for sure HoF. Less because of the stats than the story. He's a fun guy to watch,never ever had a hint of steroids, has a good reputation within the game, when he was young could actually throw, field and run a bit,went 30/30 twice, had a nice peak with the Angels,a fairly large market team, has a great nickname and was one of the legendary bad ball hitters ever. I mean, who among us hasn't enjoyed watching Vlad swinging at anything near the plate (and often getting hard hits) and golfing homers over the last 15 years?
Right now Vlad is rated #42 all time, between Johnny Bench and Frank Thomas, at BBR ELO, which I know isn't a good statistical tool, but I think it gives a good perception of how the public (Rather inaccurately) views him.
He's in like Flynn.
I think the only thing that could hold him up would be the coming logjam.
Closed forever on November 5. The spice was unique, no Old Bay. I liked the original restaurant better than the new place.
Think I've been to LP Steamers. Used to go to Baltimore at least once a year to catch a game and eat steamed crabs until I had those darn kids. And all the restaurants I went to closed.
Also... the narrow edit box seems to be a step backwards.
Perfect team for Reynolds, who has a shot at breaking Reggie's record if he can keep his job.
Of course it could be Thome's record by than.
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