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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Tuesday, October 25, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red SoxDespite the September collapse, the Red Sox managed to still win 90 games, but the collapse is what will be remembered about this team in the year 2050. Hopefully, as we listen to baseball games in our rocket cars or watch with our virtual reality Ballparksperience contraptions. Still, what it came down didn’t really have much to do with beer drinking in the clubhouse (drinking beer and playing video games seemed to work just fine for the 5/6th of a season during which the team was one of the best in the league. Or choking, either - plenty of players played subpar, but the offense was still good. What it really came down to was the Red Sox, like pretty much every team, couldn’t cope with having 4/5th of their preseason starting rotation injured at one point or another in September, plus the pitcher acquisition (though you shouldn’t ever expect Erik Bedard to be healthy). Even worse, the guy that stayed healthy at the end of the year, was John Lackey.
Now, it’s hard to have an adequate 10th starter stashed away unless you’re the parent club of Gwinnett, so it’s hard to fault the team for not preparing too heavily at the start of the season. Where management did go wrong was that once they started pitching Kyle Weiland and Andrew Miller a lot, not doing enough to bring in someone who could eat innings, even if they would be ineligible for the postseason. It’s excusable when you have a huge lead, but when everything’s falling apart at the very end, the leverage is so high that you really gotta overpay and bring in someone like Bruce Chen.
The Epstein/Francona era is over, prematurely in my opinion, but the Red Sox organization will probably stay the course and continue to make the types of moves that they normally do. There’s some extra money, even if they can bring Ortiz back, but not a lot of good pitchers available, so the Sox will have to be aggressive and creative to patch up the rotation this winter.
Next Up: Chicago Cubs
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Adrian Gonzalez L 1B 30 .297 .384 .526 153 582 88 173 36 2 31 104 79 114 1 0 138 Kevin Youkilis R 3B 33 .268 .374 .477 116 421 63 113 28 3 18 67 62 94 4 1 124 Dustin Pedroia R 2B 28 .294 .368 .461 139 562 84 165 36 2 18 70 67 64 20 6 118 David Ortiz L DH 36 .266 .357 .498 127 462 61 123 30 1 25 78 65 105 1 1 123 Jacoby Ellsbury L CF 28 .290 .345 .457 128 527 76 153 30 5 16 62 40 75 40 11 110 Carl Crawford L LF 30 .282 .325 .448 144 563 80 159 31 10 14 70 34 94 32 9 102 Marco Scutaro R SS 36 .277 .339 .390 123 477 65 132 28 1 8 51 45 53 6 3 93 J.D. Drew L RF 36 .247 .340 .412 99 328 41 81 14 2 12 39 45 79 1 2 98 Ryan Kalish L CF 24 .257 .318 .402 101 378 51 97 22 3 9 59 34 89 17 5 89 Jason Varitek B C 40 .226 .296 .452 53 168 21 38 9 1 9 24 15 54 0 0 94 Mike Aviles R SS 31 .273 .301 .417 115 422 52 115 23 4 10 49 17 62 12 6 88 Jed Lowrie B SS 28 .252 .316 .406 86 286 34 72 19 2 7 38 28 57 1 1 89 Ryan Lavarnway R C 24 .243 .316 .405 141 536 60 130 30 0 19 78 53 152 1 1 89 Darnell McDonald R RF 33 .250 .305 .411 104 292 35 73 17 3 8 36 22 69 6 3 87 Conor Jackson R 1B 30 .254 .329 .359 87 287 34 73 16 1 4 43 30 41 5 1 82 Lars Anderson L 1B 24 .240 .316 .377 155 563 55 135 37 2 12 66 62 151 4 1 83 Josh Reddick L RF 25 .247 .295 .413 148 518 61 128 31 5 15 55 37 110 5 5 85 Nate Spears L 2B 27 .242 .316 .371 128 442 58 107 25 4 8 50 44 91 9 3 81 Hector Luna R 3B 32 .251 .304 .382 117 419 46 105 21 2 10 49 30 79 5 2 80 Will Middlebrooks R 3B 23 .247 .283 .405 140 538 58 133 30 2 17 76 26 152 8 2 80 Jarrod SaltalamaccB C 27 .228 .294 .410 95 329 40 75 20 2 12 44 28 109 1 1 84 Daniel Nava B LF 29 .245 .324 .360 113 417 45 102 26 2 6 44 42 92 4 3 81 Drew Sutton B 2B 29 .240 .320 .366 102 325 38 78 22 2 5 37 35 85 4 3 81 Che-Hsuan Lin R CF 23 .252 .327 .309 139 560 79 141 21 4 1 37 54 78 26 11 70 Brett Carroll R CF 29 .225 .287 .362 115 365 49 82 19 2 9 40 25 93 5 2 70 Luis Exposito R C 25 .241 .288 .362 117 456 41 110 29 1 8 53 28 109 1 3 71 Oscar Tejeda R 2B 22 .245 .280 .344 154 604 59 148 31 4 7 53 29 137 15 8 64 Jose Iglesias R SS 22 .251 .289 .311 126 438 45 110 17 3 1 33 20 78 12 6 59 Brent Dlugach R SS 29 .223 .264 .330 101 373 38 83 18 2 6 33 20 133 6 2 56 Joey Gathright L CF 31 .241 .289 .276 56 174 25 42 4 1 0 17 11 29 9 4 51 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Adrian Gonzalez VG/75 FR/101 Kevin Youkilis VG/56 FR/69 FR/111 Dustin Pedroia VG/64 David Ortiz PO/105 Jacoby Ellsbury VG/98 AV/44 Carl Crawford VG/68 Marco Scutaro FR/112 AV/85 J.D. Drew VG/49 Ryan Kalish VG/108 AV/107 VG/128 Jason Varitek PO Mike Aviles AV/112 AV/112 AV/103 AV/118 AV/118 Jed Lowrie AV/117 AV/105 AV/100 FR/108 Ryan Lavarnway AV Darnell McDonald AV/115 FR/96 VG/97 Conor Jackson AV/96 PO/114 AV/88 AV/102 Lars Anderson AV/128 Josh Reddick VG/101 FR/142 VG/120 Nate Spears AV/118 AV/102 PO/101 PO/106 FR/95 FR/104 Hector Luna FR/121 FR/105 FR/99 Will Middlebrooks AV/110 Jarrod Saltalamacch FR FR/118 Daniel Nava AV/73 AV/93 Drew Sutton VG/88 FR/107 FR/111 PO/99 AV/133 FR/120 Che-Hsuan Lin VG/137 VG/94 Brett Carroll FR/112 AV/129 AV/123 VG/30 Luis Exposito AV Oscar Tejeda AV/196 AV/130 Jose Iglesias AV/92 Brent Dlugach FR/97 AV/96 AV/132 Joey Gathright VG/83 VG/106 VG/114 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Jon Lester L 28 3.46 16 8 30 30 187.3 163 72 18 74 186 127 Clay Buchholz R 27 3.63 10 5 20 20 116.7 109 47 11 45 83 122 Josh Beckett R 32 3.80 10 6 25 25 154.0 144 65 19 47 133 116 Erik Bedard L 33 4.14 5 3 14 14 76.0 74 35 8 28 63 106 Daisuke Matsuzaka R 31 4.37 5 4 14 14 80.3 75 39 8 40 66 101 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Chris Balcom-MilleR 23 4.77 7 7 23 23 111.3 126 59 11 43 71 92 Felix Doubront L 24 4.80 6 5 32 19 93.7 103 50 10 41 64 92 Tim Wakefield R 45 4.93 6 6 25 17 115.0 126 63 17 34 68 89 John Lackey R 33 4.96 11 10 26 26 161.3 185 89 19 53 105 89 Brandon Duckworth R 36 5.32 5 6 20 16 89.7 107 53 10 41 47 83 Kyle Weiland R 25 5.43 8 10 28 27 129.3 146 78 18 63 84 81 Junichi Tazawa R 26 5.44 6 7 25 14 82.7 95 50 14 30 54 81 Andrew Miller L 27 5.76 6 8 28 23 115.7 134 74 13 83 77 77 Alex Wilson R 25 5.81 5 7 25 25 117.7 142 76 18 55 70 76 Matt Fox R 29 6.02 6 8 30 21 113.7 133 76 24 54 73 73 Greg Smith L 28 6.33 4 6 19 17 86.7 108 61 15 44 44 70 Charlie Haeger R 28 6.38 4 7 20 18 90.3 104 64 12 76 58 69 Stolmy Pimentel R 22 7.00 6 13 26 25 100.3 133 78 21 51 49 63 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Jonathan Papelbon R 31 2.90 5 2 61 0 62.0 51 20 5 17 75 152 Daniel Bard R 27 3.03 6 2 72 0 71.3 56 24 6 27 75 145 Alfredo Aceves R 29 3.76 6 3 40 5 79.0 75 33 7 31 52 117 Bobby Jenks R 31 3.94 2 1 33 0 32.0 31 14 2 14 32 112 Scott Atchison R 36 3.99 4 3 46 1 70.0 72 31 7 18 49 111 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Dan Wheeler R 34 4.14 3 2 51 0 45.7 44 21 6 12 38 106 Hideki Okajima L 36 4.24 5 3 42 0 46.7 49 22 5 16 31 104 Matt Albers R 29 4.28 5 3 58 0 69.3 68 33 7 32 59 103 Trever Miller L 39 4.44 0 0 45 0 24.3 26 12 2 10 14 99 Franklin Morales L 26 4.50 2 2 57 0 54.0 51 27 7 30 47 98 Michael Bowden R 25 4.52 4 3 60 0 69.7 70 35 9 30 54 97 Randy Williams L 36 4.61 1 1 35 0 41.0 43 21 3 20 29 96 Royce Ring L 31 4.67 2 2 41 1 34.7 38 18 4 13 24 94 Dennys Reyes L 35 4.70 1 1 24 0 15.3 16 8 2 8 9 94 Rich Hill L 32 4.76 3 2 27 4 45.3 44 24 5 30 38 92 Josh Fields R 26 5.32 2 3 33 0 44.0 43 26 5 37 34 83 Tony Pena R 31 5.32 5 5 38 8 88.0 110 52 8 34 38 83 Clevelan Santeliz R 25 5.55 2 3 35 0 47.0 50 29 6 35 32 79 Tommy Hottovy L 30 6.04 1 2 39 0 56.7 67 38 10 30 32 73 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Carl Crawford .286 .327 .439 2196 8766 1273 2511 415 162 199 1040 505 1365 578 102 Adrian Gonzalez .287 .367 .495 2158 8210 1180 2357 489 26 388 1345 1006 1550 7 129 David Ortiz .276 .366 .524 2357 8511 1329 2351 604 21 488 1625 1207 1795 12 129 Dustin Pedroia .289 .357 .442 2013 8131 1188 2346 518 27 224 946 866 779 249 109 Jacoby Ellsbury .286 .339 .442 1683 6895 991 1975 369 64 191 776 487 862 446 104 Kevin Youkilis .274 .371 .467 1656 5982 929 1639 397 35 229 946 804 1206 46 118 Marco Scutaro .269 .332 .383 1607 5756 783 1549 326 18 98 601 537 681 63 89 Jason Varitek .255 .338 .436 1647 5421 704 1380 323 16 210 803 642 1316 25 98 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Jon Lester 213 120 0 3.71 430 430 2663 2414 1097 266 1087 2531 120 Josh Beckett 183 127 0 3.98 444 441 2736 2571 1211 332 846 2452 111 John Lackey 155 123 0 4.29 364 363 2304 2451 1097 239 715 1738 103 Clay Buchholz 120 81 0 3.81 263 259 1533 1469 650 151 632 1109 116 Erik Bedard 81 71 0 3.92 248 246 1368 1301 596 137 537 1266 112 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Adrian Gonzalez 1B 53% 33% 11% 4% 0% Jason Giambi Mo Vaughn Alvin Davis Kevin Youkilis 3B 45% 43% 10% 2% 1% Ron Santo Bobby Bonilla Joe Cronin Dustin Pedroia 2B 76% 14% 8% 3% 0% Edgardo Alfonzo Craig Biggio John Valentin David Ortiz DH 22% 34% 22% 18% 6% Carlos Delgado David Justice Boog Powell Jacoby Ellsbury CF 61% 15% 19% 5% 1% Mark Kotsay Terry Puhl Darin Erstad Carl Crawford LF 9% 21% 31% 23% 18% Vada Pinson Steve Finley David DeJesus Marco Scutaro SS 10% 14% 47% 26% 4% Mark Loretta Bill Madlock Billy Jurges J.D. Drew RF 3% 7% 12% 23% 57% Jim Hickman Jim Edmonds Adam Hyzdu Ryan Kalish CF 6% 10% 26% 36% 23% Scott Lusader Troy O’Leary Andy Tomberlin Jason Varitek C 11% 24% 25% 32% 9% Gregg Zaun Rick Dempsey Chad Kreuter Mike Aviles SS 5% 15% 37% 29% 16% Hector Luna Pat Meares Clint Barmes Jed Lowrie SS 6% 14% 42% 28% 11% Ivanon Coffie Kevin Orie Mendy Lopez Ryan Lavarnway C 4% 20% 34% 31% 12% Ozzie Virgil Charles Johnson Bobby Estalella Darnell McDonald RF 0% 4% 2% 14% 81% Chris Clapinski Joe Hall Kevin Bass Conor Jackson 1B 0% 0% 2% 13% 86% Ruben Amaro Chris Pritchett Nate Espy Lars Anderson 1B 0% 1% 1% 12% 87% Steve Cox Nick Leach Mike Rendina Josh Reddick RF 1% 1% 4% 9% 86% Kevin Reimer Jorge Piedra Robin Jennings Nate Spears 2B 3% 3% 4% 31% 59% Tony Schrager Alan Lewis Mike Moriarty Hector Luna 3B 0% 3% 8% 10% 80% Webster Garrison Chuck Jackson Pinky Whitney Will Middlebrooks 3B 0% 1% 7% 19% 73% Stan Royer Ty Wigginton Craig Paquette Jarrod SaltalamaccC 2% 9% 21% 41% 28% Troy Afenir Bob Geren Bill Hayes Daniel Nava LF 0% 0% 1% 7% 93% Dustin Majewski Nate Espy Mike Colangelo Drew Sutton 2B 2% 2% 4% 22% 72% Bobby Scales Dick Green Bret Barberie Che-Hsuan Lin CF 0% 0% 3% 17% 80% J.T. Bruett Charles Gipson Tony Gwynn Brett Carroll CF 0% 0% 1% 8% 92% John Giudice Jeff Barry Lou List Luis Exposito C 0% 2% 3% 15% 81% Salomon Manriquez Eli Whiteside Gilberto Reyes Oscar Tejeda 2B 1% 1% 2% 3% 95% Travis Hanson Frank Moore Juan Delgado Jose Iglesias SS 0% 0% 0% 7% 94% Jim Scranton Fred Manrique Eddie Zosky Brent Dlugach SS 1% 1% 1% 4% 95% Nick Green Mike Miller Scott Sheldon Joey Gathright CF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Joe Simpson Jim Buccheri Thurman Tucker Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Jonathan Papelbon RP 80% 15% 5% Robb Nen Rafael Betancourt Roberto Hernandez Daniel Bard RP 71% 24% 5% Ricky Bottalico Troy Percival Scott Williamson Jon Lester SP 82% 13% 5% Sam McDowell Lefty Gomez Mark Langston Clay Buchholz SP 70% 25% 5% Kris Benson Tony Armas Chuck Rainey Alfredo Aceves RP 34% 55% 11% John Riedling John Kiely Jeff Lahti Josh Beckett SP 59% 36% 5% Todd Stottlemyre Mark Gardner Kelvim Escobar Bobby Jenks RP 39% 40% 21% Mike Williams Antonio Osuna Mike MacDougal Scott Atchison RP 30% 53% 17% Elmer Dessens Ted Power Rick Aguilera Dan Wheeler RP 24% 50% 25% Jeff Reardon Todd Worrell Jeff Montgomery Erik Bedard SP 44% 46% 10% Wilson Alvarez Denny Neagle Chuck Finley Hideki Okajima RP 24% 45% 31% Lee Guetterman Buddy Groom Rich Rodriguez Matt Albers RP 19% 53% 29% Jimmy Serrano Colter Bean Brad Salmon Daisuke Matsuzaka SP 32% 49% 19% Dwight Gooden Ramon Martinez Charlie Puleo Trever Miller RP 24% 30% 45% Joe Hoerner Jim Turner Brian Shouse Franklin Morales RP 15% 42% 43% Armando Almanza Ricardo Jordan Dick Littlefield Michael Bowden RP 10% 52% 38% Joe Borowski Shayne Bennett Ryan Seifert Randy Williams RP 21% 40% 40% Vic Darensbourg Kevin Hickey Rheal Cormier Royce Ring RP 13% 34% 53% Jim Poole Mark Holzemer Jim Crowell Dennys Reyes RP 29% 13% 58% Morrie Martin Marshall Bridges Mike Mohler Rich Hill RP 9% 39% 53% Marshall Bridges J.C. Romero Kevin Tolar Chris Balcom-MilleSP 15% 58% 26% Clemente Nunez Kevin Brown George Stablein Felix Doubront SP 13% 53% 35% Joe Ciccarella Darren Burroughs Robert Dodd Tim Wakefield SP 17% 37% 46% Mike Morgan Tom Candiotti Danny Darwin John Lackey SP 4% 48% 48% Jaime Navarro Mike Smithson Ed Whitson Josh Fields RP 4% 20% 76% Jeff Smith Josh Banks Ryan Henderson Tony Pena RP 3% 23% 74% Mike Bruhert Bob Scanlan Carl Willis Brandon Duckworth SP 4% 27% 69% Ken Hill Scott Erickson Bobby Witt Kyle Weiland SP 1% 30% 69% Roy North Adam Russell Darryl Banks Junichi Tazawa SP 3% 33% 64% Eric Boudreaux John Habyan Ricky Rojas Clevelan Santeliz RP 2% 17% 80% Brett Wayne Jeff Kennard Ryan Henderson Andrew Miller SP 0% 15% 85% Chris Mobley Phil Dumatrait David Purcey Alex Wilson SP 0% 14% 86% Larry McWilliams Lee Rodney Nick Masset Matt Fox SP 1% 9% 90% Doug Linton Giovanni Carrara Mike Heathcott Tommy Hottovy RP 0% 8% 92% Bobby Bevel Sherman Corbett Rusty Gerhardt Greg Smith SP 0% 5% 94% Mike Prochaska Dan Smith Brian Forystek Charlie Haeger SP 0% 4% 96% Chris Rojas Cory Morris Joe Nathan Stolmy Pimentel SP 0% 1% 99% Jared Jensen Jonah Bayliss Ty Hartshorn Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Adrian Gonzalez 37% 62% 69% 9% 2% 57% 44% 0% Kevin Youkilis 7% 46% 27% 0% 2% 2% 18% 0% Dustin Pedroia 35% 37% 20% 15% 0% 5% 9% 15% David Ortiz 4% 19% 43% 0% 0% 23% 19% 0% Jacoby Ellsbury 28% 5% 12% 1% 6% 0% 1% 73% Carl Crawford 12% 0% 10% 2% 64% 1% 1% 57% Marco Scutaro 8% 4% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% J.D. Drew 1% 5% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Ryan Kalish 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 6% Jason Varitek 0% 1% 13% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Mike Aviles 2% 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% Jed Lowrie 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ryan Lavarnway 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% Darnell McDonald 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Conor Jackson 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Lars Anderson 0% 1% 0% 12% 1% 0% 0% 0% Josh Reddick 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% Nate Spears 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Hector Luna 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Will Middlebrooks 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 2% Jarrod Saltalamacc 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Daniel Nava 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Drew Sutton 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Che-Hsuan Lin 0% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 28% Brett Carroll 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Luis Exposito 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Oscar Tejeda 0% 0% 0% 4% 3% 2% 0% 7% Jose Iglesias 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% Brent Dlugach 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Joey Gathright 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Jonathan Papelbon 79% 94% 99% 30% 84% Daniel Bard 68% 94% 90% 2% 82% Jon Lester 48% 92% 81% 0% 78% Clay Buchholz 38% 88% 3% 1% 79% Alfredo Aceves 27% 82% 2% 1% 84% Josh Beckett 22% 82% 35% 6% 41% Bobby Jenks 39% 71% 77% 3% 89% Scott Atchison 25% 74% 5% 39% 75% Dan Wheeler 24% 67% 30% 32% 43% Erik Bedard 16% 69% 27% 2% 59% Hideki Okajima 18% 55% 5% 10% 69% Matt Albers 14% 65% 29% 0% 74% Daisuke Matsuzaka 10% 56% 28% 0% 70% Trever Miller 24% 44% 2% 8% 78% Franklin Morales 10% 49% 39% 0% 51% Michael Bowden 7% 48% 11% 0% 44% Randy Williams 15% 52% 8% 1% 87% Royce Ring 13% 47% 7% 8% 69% Dennys Reyes 18% 42% 5% 6% 79% Rich Hill 9% 39% 32% 0% 64% Chris Balcom-Mille 3% 40% 0% 0% 72% Felix Doubront 2% 33% 2% 0% 56% Tim Wakefield 5% 29% 3% 20% 31% John Lackey 0% 17% 0% 3% 53% Josh Fields 3% 18% 15% 0% 65% Tony Pena 2% 19% 0% 3% 77% Brandon Duckworth 1% 10% 0% 0% 58% Kyle Weiland 0% 7% 0% 0% 25% Junichi Tazawa 0% 11% 1% 1% 15% Clevelan Santeliz 1% 15% 3% 0% 46% Andrew Miller 0% 3% 0% 0% 55% Alex Wilson 0% 3% 0% 0% 17% Matt Fox 0% 2% 1% 0% 4% Tommy Hottovy 0% 4% 0% 0% 15% Greg Smith 0% 1% 0% 0% 15% Charlie Haeger 0% 1% 1% 0% 36% Stolmy Pimentel 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Yankees
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1. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:37 PM (#3975320)That's brutal all around.
His MLE for his Pawtuckett time is .271/.345/.504
and .255/.314/.398 about equal time in each so his 2011 MLE on the whole was about .263/.330/.453
his career minor league line is .284/.376/.521- no PCL or Cal league boost either
That's mostly because of his missed playing time.
If I force 2011 PA, those odds go up to 30%.
That's brutal all around
I wonder how many teams would project to have more. I bet it's less than you think. That also assumes ZiPs is getting playing time right.
Turns out that it was all five.
Well, there's Philly, that's one. You're probably right that not many teams have more than that (not many teams have a guy like Lester or CC) but then, not many teams have the payroll and expectations of the Red Sox and Yankees.
Also a fair point.
Kevin Youkilis - HOF?
As a huge Youkilis backer since the days he was putting up .500+ OBPs in the low minors, I would say no chance in hell.
2300 more AB for Ortiz seems optimistic.
How does Randy Williams have a >50% chance at a 100 ERA+?
The Adam Hyzdu comp for Drew looks strange, but I guess he hit well in AAA at age 34.
I'd like to request two bullpen guys if you don't mind, Dan: Cesar Cabral (the LHP one) and Eammon Portice.
I'm not so sure about that.
Lavarnway is a pretty extreme fly-ball hitter, with line-drive rates and in-play ISO that are on the low side - and for that reason I'm inclined to think that the HR totals he's had in the minors overstate his actual ability to drive the ball.
-- MWE
BBRef shows 15 teams with more than 458 innings from pitchers who started at least 80% of their games and an ERA+ 100 or higher.
Unrelated to Varitek I have to say that I find the modest Jose Iglesais line encouraging. If he can be the Gold Glove caliber defender he is projected to be that is actually a line that is within shouting distance of tolerable. considering how horrible he was this year that is good news.
AG#1F was right.
Interesting Mike. What benchmarks do you use for LD rates and in-play ISO? And have you seen any studies or noted a number of players that fit this profile and didn't perform well?
Do it more than once. A single season of defensive stats has about the predictive value as two months of offensive stats.
Ellsbury's UZR for 2011 was excellent, enough to get him to VG if that was the only source I used. By TZ and BIS, he was at 0 and -2 in 1900 innings in center before this year.
Thanks for all the work Dan.
Ellsbury coming off a career-best year, Crawford and Lackey coming off career-worsts, and then guys like Ortiz and Youkilis, guys with the type of skillsets who *could* fall off a cliff any second, Adam Dunn-style.
That .473 in 2010 was in 123 PAs, he's at .414 for 2009-2011, .440 in 2010-2011
Salty was at .443 in 2010-2011 and he projects to .410 in 2012?
Lowrie .433 and he projects at .406?
Let's just say that ZiPS seems to be deviating from Marcel more than usual here
He also slugged .371 in 2009 in the majors, and .453 in AAA (mainly the PCL) in 2010. Seems totally reasonable to me.
For Lowrie, that .433 over 2010-11 has a .382 component from 2011. Don't recall the weights ZiPs uses for past performance, but that .382 is almost certainly getting more weight. The .265 in limited time in 2009 probably doesn't help either.
That seems kind of amazing to me, given that Kalish basically had a lost year in the minors and Reddick put up a 109 OPS+ in Boston. Reddick really dropped off in Aug/Sept, but wow. I guess Reddick's minor league numbers don't really compare well to Kalish's.
But he's young, Tek is not, BROCK6 (ok it's old and crappy) has Tek at .399 in 2012, Lowrie at .407 and Salty at well, way to high (BROCK6 always gives guys spike years at age 27)
Salty will be 27, and has a career SLG of .406 and ZiPS says .410?
Tek will be 40, has a carer SLG of .435 (.423 last year) and ZiPS says .452?
I don't know how the comps work in ZiPS projections, but none of Teks' top 3 played at age 40
Saltys' #1, Afenir, was a league average hitter- in AAA at age 26, his #3 was a career minor leaguer who wasn't nearly as good as Afenir - and Geren is kind of like Afenir- except Geren pulled 220 good MLB PAs out of his butt during his age 27 season somehow, before turning back into a pumpkin.
In isolation I don't necessarily see Salty's or Lowries' projection as unreasonable, compared to Tek however, it's a head scratcher
Varitek - .434
Satlalamacchia - .384
Lowrie - .411
Age and other factors make those numbers suspect but just as a smell test they make Dan's numbers seem reasonably estimated to me. I'd take the under on Varitek and the over on Saltalamacchia fairly comfortably but I can see where ZiPS would get its numbers.
at a 3-2-1 weight I get:
Varitek: .423
Salty: .428
Lowrie: .413
I think you are not accounting for the ABs each had in their respective seasons.
I really can't see where ZiPS is getting its numbers on this one
I can't see how Tek is projected to outslug Salty by 42 points:
Salty outsugged Tek last year
Salty outslugged Tek 2010-2011
Tek outslugged Salty 200-2011 by .414 to .411
Salty will be 27
Tek will be 40
218/304/418 - Tek
225/291/403 - Saltalamacchia
Tek's slugging projection looks high to me, too. Saltalamacchia is just about exactly on the nose with his 5/4/3 average.
I would also love it if Scutaro was an average SS, but I fear he's not up to playing the position anymore.
Cherington said in his first news conference that he expected Reddick and Kalish to compete for the RF job. I like that.
Now they just need to acquire some good, expensive pitchers. Hope they get the right ones.
The reason is twofold:
1) The power of love...errr...rounding. ZiPS rounds to nearest whole number and in this case, low at-bat numbers and some luck here gives Varitek a little boost. ZiPS only "really" has Varitek slugging .434. Why do I round? The year I didn't, every damn thread had people confused as to why they couldn't replicate the BA/OBP/SLG presented with the numbers given and it would look fugly to project a guy at 34.2353241502835902385 home runs.
2) The younger or older the player, the more important recent history and the less important farther history. ZiPS cares more about Varitek's .473 and .423 than the previous .390 and .359.
I believe that's Sr., as Jr. was referred to as 'Anthony Gwynn' in the old ZIPS projections.
Out of curiosity, where are you getting your minor league data? I can't find anything from 2011, but Lavarnway looks to have a pretty average to below-average flyball rate from what I can see:
Year FB Rate League Avg FB Rate2010 45.7% 46.1%
2009 38.8% 47.9%
2008 30.2% 48.6%
Did he have a FB spike in 2011?
So 2012 Red Sox remind ZiPS of the 1995 Red Sox. Hmmm.
Does that mean in October Lou Marson = Tony Pena?
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