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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Thursday, October 27, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - Chicago CubsEpstein! That’s pretty much the big news in Cubs baseball the last month. It’s still hard to tell what direction exactly Epstein will take the Cubs, but it’s likely that the list of players employed by the Cubs in 2012 will look very different than the list of players below. Epstein wasn’t brought in with giant sacks full of money in order to politely churn Jim Hendry’s assemblage of awesomeness.
On the plus side, the Cubs aren’t really as decrepit a team to rebuild as the Houston Astros are. Starlin Castro and Brett Jackson are good building blocks and the team should be able to spend some money. How much is still kind of an unknown as while the team itself is a money-maker, the Ricketts family is also rather debt-ridden. 2011 was a disappointing season for a Cubs Disappointing Season, but my theory is that with the amount of mojo/karma/luck/kismet/otherstuffhippiegirlscantellyouabout needed to make Jeff Samardzija go from a guy who practically had to carry a rape whistle out to the mound to someone who actually got batters out, left little for the rest of the team. Pray…for…mojo.
Just a reminder, hitter comps are based on hitting. If you forget that, Aramis Ramirez’s top comp looks really strange. Now that I’ve told you, Dan does not want to hear it.
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Carlos Pena L 1B 34 .230 .355 .480 131 440 67 101 22 2 28 77 82 145 3 2 119 Aramis Ramirez R 3B 34 .280 .340 .474 123 464 64 130 25 1 21 79 38 69 1 1 113 Starlin Castro R SS 22 .301 .343 .432 156 634 86 191 36 10 9 65 39 85 21 11 104 Bryan LaHair L 1B 29 .262 .324 .469 139 503 72 132 30 1 24 77 47 129 1 2 107 Geovany Soto R C 29 .244 .336 .429 117 385 44 94 23 0 16 55 52 103 0 0 101 Brett Jackson L CF 23 .254 .335 .419 141 556 94 141 26 9 16 61 66 174 22 10 99 Marlon Byrd R CF 34 .273 .324 .414 130 488 61 133 29 2 12 51 28 82 5 2 94 Alfonso Soriano R LF 36 .245 .297 .453 124 453 56 111 27 2 21 68 31 111 5 1 95 Blake DeWitt L LF 26 .256 .326 .399 141 391 45 100 20 6 8 46 39 68 2 1 91 Steve Clevenger L C 26 .272 .322 .369 127 423 44 115 23 3 4 46 31 61 3 3 83 Tony Campana L CF 26 .273 .317 .328 144 451 66 123 14 4 1 25 27 95 44 13 72 Marquez Smith R 3B 27 .244 .299 .400 115 405 56 99 23 2 12 45 28 106 3 1 84 D.J. LeMahieu R 3B 23 .291 .319 .363 156 570 62 166 24 4 3 57 24 74 11 9 81 Reed Johnson R RF 35 .261 .310 .385 98 226 28 59 14 1 4 22 8 51 2 2 83 Luis Montanez R LF 30 .263 .312 .385 100 327 41 86 16 3 6 46 20 50 3 4 84 Scott Moore L 3B 28 .244 .307 .380 104 332 43 81 14 2 9 41 27 75 3 1 81 Darwin Barney R 2B 26 .273 .311 .352 156 571 72 156 26 5 3 49 28 76 10 2 76 Brad Snyder L RF 30 .242 .286 .402 117 418 52 101 22 3 13 55 26 127 9 3 80 Bobby Scales B 2B 34 .238 .330 .372 104 341 49 81 18 2 8 39 44 85 6 6 86 Ty Wright R LF 27 .262 .308 .367 125 431 54 113 20 2 7 49 25 77 4 2 78 Welington CastilloR C 25 .243 .294 .395 99 354 40 86 18 0 12 44 23 94 0 1 81 Jeff Baker R 1B 31 .250 .299 .375 87 232 28 58 13 2 4 25 16 55 1 0 77 Tyler Colvin L RF 26 .233 .276 .416 147 473 64 110 21 9 16 60 28 129 5 2 81 Josh Vitters R 3B 22 .260 .297 .395 149 527 62 137 27 1 14 68 22 90 7 10 82 Marwin Gonzalez B SS 23 .264 .304 .353 146 507 51 134 25 4 4 47 28 70 9 5 74 Chris Robinson R C 28 .263 .292 .338 77 266 24 70 12 1 2 29 9 44 3 1 67 Matthew Spencer L RF 26 .232 .281 .360 143 505 60 117 22 2 13 64 31 139 6 3 69 Koyie Hill B C 33 .218 .277 .317 68 202 20 44 9 1 3 17 17 58 1 0 57 Augie Ojeda B SS 37 .242 .294 .274 32 62 7 15 2 0 0 5 5 6 0 0 52 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Carlos Pena AV/98 Aramis Ramirez Starlin Castro FR/137 Bryan LaHair FR/99 FR/62 FR/62 Geovany Soto AV Brett Jackson VG/93 AV/145 VG/91 Marlon Byrd AV/95 AV/83 AV/95 Alfonso Soriano VG/176 Blake DeWitt FR/110 AV/109 FR/111 AV/92 Steve Clevenger FR FR/92 PO/117 Tony Campana VG/136 VG/97 VG/136 Marquez Smith PO/99 AV/90 PO/119 D.J. LeMahieu AV/91 AV/99 PO/100 Reed Johnson AV/95 AV/103 AV/92 Luis Montanez FR/89 PO/92 FR/109 Scott Moore VG/117 FR/128 PO/122 PO/114 FR/120 Darwin Barney AV/115 VG/111 AV/107 Brad Snyder FR/88 PO/126 FR/95 Bobby Scales AV/88 PO/87 AV/120 AV/97 AV/97 Ty Wright AV/170 AV/170 Welington Castillo AV Jeff Baker AV/92 FR/87 AV/110 AV/101 AV/101 Tyler Colvin AV/110 AV/128 AV/139 AV/128 Josh Vitters AV/118 FR/148 Marwin Gonzalez VG/97 AV/101 AV/105 AV/143 AV/88 FR/146 Chris Robinson AV AV/112 Matthew Spencer VG/121 AV/140 FR/115 FR/138 Koyie Hill AV Augie Ojeda VG/85 VG/110 AV/94 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Matt Garza R 28 3.52 12 9 31 30 194.3 176 76 19 64 181 116 Andrew Cashner R 25 3.76 4 3 31 11 64.7 59 27 5 30 51 108 Ryan Dempster R 35 4.24 10 10 28 28 174.0 172 82 21 67 153 96 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Carlos Zambrano R 31 4.25 7 8 27 23 137.7 136 65 14 60 108 96 Randy Wells R 29 4.50 8 10 27 27 156.0 165 78 20 51 101 91 Ramon Ortiz R 39 4.92 4 5 27 13 89.7 102 49 12 25 59 83 Trey McNutt R 22 4.95 5 7 25 24 103.7 117 57 10 48 67 82 Casey Coleman R 24 4.97 8 11 29 26 146.7 156 81 19 61 95 82 Rodrigo Lopez R 36 4.98 7 9 26 22 132.0 152 73 20 39 75 82 Jay Jackson R 24 5.02 8 12 27 25 143.3 166 80 17 46 82 81 Christopher CarpenR 26 5.11 4 6 34 14 88.0 95 50 10 53 59 80 Nicholas Struck R 22 5.29 6 10 27 24 127.7 149 75 14 54 72 77 Austin Bibens-DirkR 27 5.55 5 8 24 19 107.0 123 66 18 39 62 73 Alberto Cabrera R 23 5.67 6 10 27 25 128.7 159 81 14 63 79 72 Brooks Raley L 24 5.85 5 11 25 25 124.7 159 81 17 51 60 70 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Sean Marshall L 29 2.74 8 3 76 0 72.3 60 22 5 21 78 149 Carlos Marmol R 29 3.19 4 2 74 0 73.3 51 26 5 49 101 128 Kerry Wood R 35 3.66 4 3 49 0 46.7 39 19 5 22 52 111 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Jeff Samardzija R 27 4.12 5 5 71 0 78.7 71 36 8 46 68 99 Jeff Beliveau L 25 4.25 4 4 51 0 65.7 59 31 9 32 68 96 John Gaub L 27 4.35 4 4 48 0 49.7 43 24 6 36 55 94 Scott Maine L 27 4.37 4 4 48 0 59.7 57 29 7 30 55 93 John Grabow L 33 4.64 2 2 51 0 52.3 53 27 6 25 36 88 Rafael Dolis R 24 5.04 6 9 42 12 85.7 93 48 7 53 50 81 James Russell L 26 5.05 3 4 56 5 73.0 81 41 13 20 49 81 Justin Berg R 28 5.06 3 4 45 0 53.3 56 30 6 29 27 81 Esmailin Caridad R 28 5.43 3 4 29 6 61.3 71 37 9 28 42 75 Kyle Smit R 24 5.54 3 6 48 0 65.0 80 40 7 30 38 74 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Aramis Ramirez .280 .336 .482 2307 8682 1170 2427 491 25 406 1490 660 1267 21 110 Alfonso Soriano .269 .318 .495 1913 7510 1108 2022 466 33 388 1087 477 1680 275 109 Marlon Byrd .275 .330 .410 1555 5574 736 1535 317 35 121 620 363 972 65 94 Carlos Pena .235 .345 .473 1884 6399 933 1502 316 33 381 1093 1020 1918 36 117 Geovany Soto .246 .332 .421 1478 4908 534 1207 293 3 186 674 611 1149 1 97 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Carlos Zambrano 165 122 0 3.83 465 405 2566 2326 1092 234 1156 2115 112 Matt Garza 157 134 0 3.81 420 415 2602 2475 1102 277 857 2262 108 Ryan Dempster 142 151 87 4.46 608 383 2576 2562 1276 291 1169 2221 95 Randy Wells 70 77 0 4.34 219 216 1281 1335 618 162 421 836 94 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Carlos Pena 1B 15% 37% 25% 17% 7% Bill Nicholson Mickey Tettleton Pat Burrell Aramis Ramirez 3B 18% 37% 37% 7% 2% Brooks Robinson Mike Lowell Pinky Higgins Starlin Castro SS 34% 36% 19% 10% 2% Derek Jeter Robin Yount George Brett Bryan LaHair 1B 2% 14% 21% 45% 19% Ryan Shealy Paul Sorrento Greg Walker Geovany Soto C 20% 39% 25% 14% 3% Charles Johnson Steve Yeager Jeremy Brown Brett Jackson CF 16% 17% 31% 27% 10% Bernie Williams Rich Becker Ray Lankford Marlon Byrd CF 3% 10% 37% 39% 13% Lou Piniella Rondell White Aaron Rowand Alfonso Soriano LF 4% 8% 11% 19% 59% Joe Rudi Hubie Brooks Phil Hiatt Blake DeWitt LF 1% 4% 4% 14% 79% Robin Jennings Sam Taylor Mike Maksudian Steve Clevenger C 1% 5% 16% 54% 25% Steven Clevenger A.J. Pierzynski Russ Nixon Tony Campana CF 2% 2% 8% 33% 57% Willy Taveras Willie McGee Alex Sanchez Marquez Smith 3B 0% 2% 7% 15% 76% Rey Palacios Les Pearsey Matt Macri D.J. LeMahieu 3B 0% 0% 1% 16% 84% Damion Easley Vic Rodriguez Julio Franco Reed Johnson RF 1% 2% 2% 5% 91% Tom Paciorek Hector Lopez Pete Fox Luis Montanez LF 1% 0% 2% 6% 92% Marlin McPhail Rufino Linares Chris Woodward Scott Moore 3B 0% 2% 4% 16% 79% Joe Dillon Glenn Williams Juan Gonzalez Darwin Barney 2B 0% 1% 2% 15% 83% Jose Lind Rafael Ramirez Todd Haney Brad Snyder RF 0% 1% 2% 6% 92% Doug Deeds Brian Lesher Alexis Gomez Bobby Scales 2B 2% 4% 6% 19% 70% Jed Hansen Nelson Liriano Dennis Hocking Ty Wright LF 0% 0% 1% 2% 98% Tim McWilliam Eric Nielsen Rowland Office Welington CastilloC 1% 6% 16% 45% 33% John Buck Jeff Banister Salomon Manriquez Jeff Baker 1B 0% 0% 2% 4% 95% Tracy Jones Matt Mieske Todd Benzinger Tyler Colvin RF 0% 1% 4% 6% 90% Larry Barnes Karim Garcia Todd Dunwoody Josh Vitters 3B 1% 2% 5% 10% 82% Craig Worthington Casey McGehee Wilson Betemit Marwin Gonzalez SS 0% 3% 10% 29% 60% Hal Lanier Luis Ojeda David Lamb Chris Robinson C 0% 0% 2% 10% 89% Ken Huckaby Omir Santos Angelo Encarnacion Matthew Spencer RF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Ryan Goleski Matt Carson Phil Geisler Koyie Hill C 0% 0% 1% 6% 93% Chad Moeller George Mitterwald Frank Charles Augie Ojeda SS 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Mark Belanger Bert Campaneris Rene Gonzales Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Sean Marshall RP 81% 14% 5% Don Mossi Joe Sambito Willie Hernandez Carlos Marmol RP 59% 34% 7% Jim Kern Dave LaRoche Ryne Duren Matt Garza SP 62% 33% 5% Andy Benes Darren Dreifort Jim Beattie Kerry Wood RP 32% 51% 17% Toby Borland Juan Berenguer Jeff Nelson Andrew Cashner SP 30% 44% 25% Murry Dickson Richie Lewis Mel Rojas Jeff Samardzija RP 10% 50% 40% Brian Bowles George Smith Bryce Florie Ryan Dempster SP 18% 60% 23% Jack Morris Dave Burba Mike Krukow Jeff Beliveau RP 11% 50% 40% B.J. Ryan Taylor Tankersley Armando Almanza Carlos Zambrano SP 18% 57% 25% Pat Rapp Vicente Padilla Bobby Witt John Gaub RP 11% 33% 55% Ricky Pickett Armando Almanza Greg McCarthy Scott Maine RP 9% 43% 48% Kevin Lovingier Jesus Pena Armando Almanza Randy Wells SP 10% 53% 37% Bill Laskey Josh Fogg Jae-Weong Seo John Grabow RP 5% 27% 68% Mike Venafro Mike Mohler Sean Fesh Ramon Ortiz SP 5% 22% 73% Lew Burdette Doug Linton Steve Sparks Trey McNutt SP 4% 35% 61% Clemente Nunez Ed Wojna Nick DeBarr Casey Coleman SP 2% 30% 68% Gary Glover Scott Randall Michael Parisi Rodrigo Lopez SP 6% 26% 69% Dennis Springer Tim Kester Bill Gullickson Jay Jackson SP 1% 25% 73% Elizardo Ramirez Bill King Mike Lincoln Rafael Dolis RP 1% 14% 86% Tim Byron Walt Masterson Heathcliff Slocumb James Russell RP 1% 17% 81% Dana Allison Chris Key Roberto Rivera Justin Berg RP 3% 20% 76% Ed Sprague Jamie Emiliano Mike Zimmerman Christopher CarpenSP 0% 14% 85% Tim Byron Bobby Munoz Joshua Hill Nicholas Struck SP 1% 17% 82% Matt Achilles Peter Bauer Ron Mathis Esmailin Caridad RP 1% 10% 89% Ivan Maldonado Peter Munro Mike Villano Kyle Smit RP 0% 8% 92% Timothy Burton Ross Wolf Chuck Crumpton Austin Bibens-DirkSP 0% 11% 88% Ron Jensen Greg Biercevicz Nick Roberts Alberto Cabrera SP 0% 6% 93% Jim Johnson Carlos Paredes Adam Russell Brooks Raley SP 0% 3% 97% Jason Cromer Wes Whisler Jason Dickson Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Carlos Pena 0% 19% 31% 0% 1% 44% 12% 0% Aramis Ramirez 9% 4% 22% 0% 0% 5% 4% 0% Starlin Castro 52% 5% 5% 24% 67% 1% 2% 18% Bryan LaHair 1% 2% 17% 1% 0% 10% 2% 0% Geovany Soto 0% 4% 7% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% Brett Jackson 2% 4% 6% 0% 47% 3% 3% 10% Marlon Byrd 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Alfonso Soriano 1% 0% 13% 0% 0% 8% 2% 0% Blake DeWitt 0% 1% 1% 0% 6% 0% 1% 0% Steve Clevenger 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Tony Campana 3% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 98% Marquez Smith 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% D.J. LeMahieu 25% 1% 0% 1% 9% 0% 0% 2% Reed Johnson 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Luis Montanez 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Scott Moore 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Darwin Barney 3% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% Brad Snyder 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Bobby Scales 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ty Wright 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Welington Castillo 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jeff Baker 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tyler Colvin 0% 0% 3% 0% 49% 1% 0% 0% Josh Vitters 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4% 1% 0% Marwin Gonzalez 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% Chris Robinson 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Matthew Spencer 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Koyie Hill 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Augie Ojeda 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Sean Marshall 80% 95% 93% 19% 95% Carlos Marmol 52% 91% 99% 0% 93% Matt Garza 22% 84% 62% 1% 75% Kerry Wood 32% 77% 92% 0% 65% Andrew Cashner 25% 69% 22% 1% 85% Jeff Samardzija 7% 47% 37% 0% 75% Ryan Dempster 2% 43% 42% 0% 44% Jeff Beliveau 7% 46% 87% 0% 35% Carlos Zambrano 3% 41% 13% 1% 65% John Gaub 7% 36% 93% 0% 68% Scott Maine 6% 44% 56% 0% 63% Randy Wells 1% 29% 1% 3% 34% John Grabow 5% 25% 5% 1% 56% Ramon Ortiz 4% 20% 7% 28% 45% Trey McNutt 0% 14% 1% 0% 81% Casey Coleman 0% 7% 0% 0% 32% Rodrigo Lopez 1% 12% 3% 16% 27% Jay Jackson 0% 6% 0% 4% 49% Rafael Dolis 0% 11% 0% 0% 86% James Russell 1% 15% 1% 21% 13% Justin Berg 2% 18% 0% 0% 62% Christopher Carpen 0% 9% 1% 0% 63% Nicholas Struck 0% 4% 0% 0% 53% Esmailin Caridad 0% 8% 2% 0% 37% Kyle Smit 0% 4% 0% 0% 62% Austin Bibens-Dirk 0% 2% 0% 1% 12% Alberto Cabrera 0% 1% 0% 0% 54% Brooks Raley 0% 0% 0% 0% 32% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Yankees Red Sox
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1. Moe Greene Posted: October 27, 2011 at 05:43 PM (#3977012)2) Geovany Soto -- we aren't selling jeans here.
OTOH, I'd take that out of Brett Jackson, for sure.
2) If LaHair could be guaranteed that slash line, 24 HRs and a 107 OPS+ -- then I wholeheartedly say give him the job, pay him $450K and reassess next year.
Problem is, you don't have a FA market that includes Pujols and Fielder next year. Unless you mean give LaHair a corner OF slot...
Are we allowed to point out that apparently ZiPS itself was so shocked it forgot to do a defensive projection for ARam?
Starlin Castro SS 34% 36% 19% 10% 2% Derek Jeter Robin Yount George Brett
From ZiPS' lips to God's ear!
Disappointing projection for Castro--that's pretty much what he's done to this point.
See above.
Dan, has any other young player ever had 3 HoFers as their top comps?
Yeah, fair enough, and it's not like having the next Edgar Renteria's a bad thing anyway. The comps are certainly encouraging; I was just looking at the stat line. One would hope Starlin can take a step or two forward next year, and I think his increased power in the second half of 2011 is an encouraging sign in that regard.
Player B: 255/313/413, 106 OPS+, +1 Rbat
Wanders off, whistling quietly. :-)
Dunno. I would guess *somebody* has.
EDIT: And I don't even hit refresh???
Of course, through age 21, Yount had yet to crack a 100 OPS+, Brett had 2 career HR and Jeter had yet to bang his first starlet so you don't need to have achieved much* to get comped to them at that age.
*Other than the absurdly difficult feat of making the majors by 21.
Derek Jeter
Robin Yount
George Brett
Paul Molitor
Hanley Ramirez
Steve Sax
Alan Trammell
Garry Templeton
Troy Tulowitzki
Carney Lansford
Zoilo Versalles
Roberto Alomar
Jim Fregosi
Adrian Beltre
Edgar Renteria
Chris Speier
Cecil Travis
Robinson Cano
Joe Thurston
Buddy Bell
Lou Boudreau
Year BA/OBP/SLG WAR
2012 301/343/432 3.5
2013 308/352/464 4.4
2014 310/356/475 4.8
2015 311/359/479 5.0
2016 310/359/487 5.2
2017 309/360/483 5.1
2018 304/357/479 4.8
2019 304/357/479 4.7
2020 302/354/471 4.3
2021 300/351/466 3.9
ZiPS likes Castro.
I still think Castro has great defensive potential. I can only hope a new coaching staff and overall organization philosophy can help him reach that potential (not to mention the offensive potential hinted at in his comps).
I agree with 12, these projections really aren't that bad.
If I understand the intro correctly, and I'm pretty sure I do, the hitting comparisons are based equally on hitting and fielding.
Remember, I have 40 years of minor league data in there - I got lots more young middle infielders to compare players to than major leaguers.
Meanwhile Heyward got Callison, Griffey (Jr I assume) and Buddy Lewis. Longoria got Rolen, Zimmerman and Wright (probably 0 HoFers and maybe 3 HoMers). Justin Upton got Tartabull, BJ and Sixto. Mike Trout got Ashburn, Baldelli and Raines (Sr I assume).
Trout's comps after this year will be interesting.
You forgot that he also figures in their pitching potential as well.
John Gaub
Trey McNutt
Austin Bibens-Dirk
Admit it, you're just making up names.
I think it's a factor, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs treat "age" as more than just a number for Pujols and Fielder. I have no idea how you'd go about measuring it, but the Cubs could look at Fielder's physique and factor an early decline into their calculations. Though it seems like Pujols hasn't exactly been a model of good health lately.
If you can get it, and you can't, I'd take Prince on a 6 year deal. ARod's 10 year contracts really screwed up the market.
I know, I was just making a funny.
But jiminy christmas that's an impressive set of comps.
Normally it would be a huge, pretty much deciding factor (assuming similar performance and years/$$). In this case, it's still a major factor but Prince is a big tub of goo while Albert still stole 9 of 10 bases.
But, as tubs of goo go, Fielder's a good bet. First, even standard tubs of goo generally last through at least 32 and Prince is not an extreme "old man skills" kinda guy (the BA and K-rate are pretty good) so I could easily see him being a David Ortiz or even Willie Stargell through his 30s.
I'll personally take Albert anyway.
He and Russ Ortiz were together on the Dodgers in 2010, and when they played the Pirates to open the season I went nuts trying to keep track of which one was which.
It's actually better than that - it got truncated by the character limit. His full last name is actually Bibens-Dirkx.
Yeah, I'd like to see him get another shot at this. I know it was tried when he first came up, but I don't think he was left there for very long.
And I just started liking him, too.
Sure - I get that - and I'm saying LaHair is any sort of a long-term answer.
It's solely a matter of expecting them to be a 75 win team year, then perhaps slightly better or slightly worse (depending on whether Castro takes a step forward, Cashner truly become a good upper-middle rotation option, etc) the year after.
I don't see any real value between 75 and 80 wins - so why spend 20 million on someone who gives you a better shot at 80?
Maybe if Pujols were 2-3 years younger or Fielder had 2-3 fewer planetoids orbiting him - or maybe if either of them played a premium position, sure.
But the next couple years are going to be pretty barren. No sense in loading up on big contracts this offseason.
If LaHair projects to be league average, stick at 1B, saving the 19,500,000 X whatever - go for it... reassess when/if Castro has cemented his stardom, Garza is guaranteed gone or a long-term mainstay, and Theo has found the bargains elsewhere. A team with big revenue at the bottom of the success cycle doesn't need to be spending just because it can, especially not for a 1B.
A) Because Prince Albert isn't likely to be the only addition
B) You have 2013, 2014, 2015, . . . to worry about.
C) The Cubs have nothing in their system that can play first base at an average level for them in 2013.
D) After Prince Albert this year there is nothing that can impact the Cubs record like they can and that is especially true at the first base position.
By punting this FA season you would be hurting the Cubs' record in years to come and not just in 2012.
If LaHair projects to be league average, stick at 1B, saving the 19,500,000 X whatever - go for it...
LaHair is projecting to be a below league average first baseman.
A team with big revenue at the bottom of the success cycle doesn't need to be spending just because it can, especially not for a 1B.
There really is no such thing as a success cycle for large revenue teams. Theo can make this team a playoff contender for next year this offseason.
If yes, then having Pujols or Fielder around is a good thing. (And if he doesn't think either of them will be any good in 2014 then he wouldn't sign either of them no matter where in the success cycle they are)
If no, then he's sure coming into this expecting a long, long haul.
The tougher question would seem to be "what are the best long-term investments the Cubs can make this offseason?" On the FA market, the best bets would seem to be Fielder and Pujols, maybe Reyes (durability a concern ... and that we don't need a SS). But there's no reason the Cubs can't play the role of the team that takes on the excellent, increasingly expensive player in exchange for not much, then signs that guy to a ridiculous contract. I don't know who's available in that regard but would love to grab a real solution at 3B, 2B, CF or the rotation. The only position player fitting that description who isn't (I don't think) under a very team friendly contract and approaching FA is Matt Kemp ... and, as these things go, I'm not the biggest Kemp fan.* Looking beyond those positions, I don't see the Rox moving Tulo (yet), much less the Brewers Braun or the Reds Votto (in division). Maybe Hanley (to 3B or somewhere?).
So if the Cubs want to add major talent, looks like it's FAs for the next couple of years at least.
*if he repeats 2011 or anything close to it, I will become a big Kemp fan. And, even if not, he'd obviously be a good long-term CF (then corner OF) solution so it's not like I'd complain unless we get silly with money.
And don't forget, despite all the criticism, Matsuzaka sports a 108 ERA+ for his career in MLB. Hardly a disaster, just not worth the price.
But that's the problem -- it's not the 20 million this year I worry about; it's what happens in 2014 when perhaps you ARE good enough to compete and your most pressing need is actually an ace SP? I suppose elite offense is never wasted, but I just don't like tying up huge money long-term, especially at a relatively easy to fill position, when I have virtually no way of knowing what I'll when I'm good.
We can't know anything about 2014 or 2015 with certainty -- but the only thing that I have any degree of confidence about is that we'll probably be in good shape at SS.
Hey - spend Ricketts' money - I have no attachment to it, but it's less a matter of what I will spend that $20 mil on this year than it is having that 20 mil to spend on that unforeseen something I might need in a couple years.... Now sure - if you just give the job to LaHair, you're almost certainly going to need a 1B at some point -- but if Castro becomes Robin Yount, Soto is still a plus offensive catcher, something better than Soriano is in LF, if, if, if -- I may not be particularly in need of a big stick at 1B, but I might need an SP.
Doesn't seem like it should have been too hard. Just identify which of them is the one that sucks and go from there...
I don't think we've solved our problem.
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If that is the year he thinks he might get them competitive then I think he has failed as a GM. He can get them competitive next year at the earliest and I don't see any real reason not to try and do that. The Cubs have virtually nothing in the minors and the FA that are good are for the most part not manning positions that any of our good youngsters are manning.
It isn't like we have a young Adrian Gonzalez manning first, Brian Giles plaing right field, and Jason Bay in center. Signing Prince Fielder will solve a real need for the Cubs right now. Sign Willingham will solve a real need for the Cubs right now. Signing CJC Wilbathia will solve a real need right now. It can be argued that signing Jose Reyes somewhat hurts Castro but moving Castro to third or second might actually help the guy and still solves a real need for the Cubs. Doing this stuff doesn't force us to trade Jackson or McNutt. It still leaves them and others available and still gives them chances to make the team.
Simply punting 2012 doesn't really help the Cubs in anyway in 2013 or 2014. The Cubs aren't better off in 2013 because they lose 90 games in 2012. The reason being that the Cubs are not likely to try and improve by trading their prospects for players. Theo isn't going to pull a Cleveland and trade away future all-stars for a reliever.
Yes, absolutely, you don't want money tied up in bad long-term contracts. But there's no reason to think that Pujols or Fielder will be off the cliff by 2014 or 2015. And Ryan's point is key. The Cubs do have a hefty commitment already for 2012, but only $30 M for 2013, $20 M for 2014 and $0 for 2015.
If the Cubs find themselves in need of an ace starter and don't have the money in 2014, that will be because Theo has managed to spend $130 M ... and if he has, I am highly confident he will have wasted $20 M on players much worse than Pujols/Fielder and they will be the real problem. In that sense, I might be more worried about (for example) 4/$50 for Josh Willingham than 6/$150 for Pujols.
That said, Pujols' "down" year paired with everybody's recognition that there's a good chance the AROD extension will be an utter disaster will make a lot of teams shy about offering Pujols a contract in the 8-10 year range, at least not without those last couple of years being vesting options based on playing time. I would still happily go 8/$200 for Pujols (esp if I was an AL GM -- barring a major injury, he's gonna be Aaron-Robinson-Mays) but I'm not sure many ML GMs will at this point (although I'm sure that number is at least 1). The AROD extension may have the "calming" effect on the aging superstar market that the Hampton and Brown contracts did on pitching contracts a decade ago.
Which just makes it more likely the Cards will retain Pujols. Their worst-case scenario in years 7-10 is trotting out a beloved franchise icon as he passes his final career milestones which should still put plenty of fannies in the seats.
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