User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.4519 seconds
40 querie(s) executed
|
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
| ||||||||
Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Thursday, November 17, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White SoxThat didn’t go too well, did it? The White Sox find themselves at a crossroads, where they have just enough talent on the team to compete in the AL Central, but not enough depth that they can really handle nasty surprises. In 2011, the performances of Adam Dunn and Alex Rios and the continued lack of value from Jake Peavy (the Sox have paid him roughly $34 million for 3.6 bWAR) hit the White Sox hard enough that problems that the team could have overcome in isolation (growing pains from Beckham and Morel, giving 700 PA a year to a 5th outfielder) became pretty glaring.
So, do they rebuild or retool? We’ll known in a few weeks if trade talks around John Danks and Carlos Quentin become serious. What the team can’t do is take a middle ground - even in a weaker division, the franchise doesn’t have enough to simply tread water and hope for the best. I wouldn’t be surprised by any outcome for Adam Dunn in 2012, from 40 homers to being designated for assignment in June.
Next Up: Los Angeheim Angels
Oracle on Twitter
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Paul Konerko R 1B 36 .278 .359 .493 134 493 68 137 23 1 27 87 59 91 1 1 124 Carlos Quentin R RF 29 .262 .353 .497 123 435 67 114 28 1 24 81 42 78 3 1 123 Adam Dunn L DH 32 .209 .340 .429 132 450 61 94 21 0 26 76 86 184 0 1 103 Dayan Viciedo R RF 23 .274 .328 .431 156 580 74 159 28 0 21 75 40 114 3 1 100 Alejandro de Aza L LF 28 .271 .328 .406 139 473 73 128 28 6 8 47 38 100 21 10 94 Alexei Ramirez R SS 30 .274 .321 .412 155 587 80 161 26 2 17 72 39 77 9 6 94 Ramon Castro R C 36 .238 .304 .448 36 105 11 25 4 0 6 17 10 30 0 0 97 A.J. Pierzynski L C 35 .277 .309 .394 125 462 44 128 25 1 9 48 18 42 1 1 86 Lastings Milledge R LF 27 .259 .319 .378 134 482 60 125 23 2 10 47 37 92 17 6 85 Alexis Rios R CF 31 .259 .301 .404 147 564 74 146 28 3 16 63 32 86 20 8 86 Gordon Beckham R 2B 25 .254 .318 .388 144 500 69 127 29 1 12 55 39 101 6 4 87 Tyler Flowers R C 26 .215 .328 .393 119 400 55 86 18 1 17 51 59 155 3 2 91 Brent Morel R 3B 25 .261 .300 .384 140 502 60 131 25 2 11 53 27 87 8 5 81 Brent Lillibridge R RF 28 .230 .299 .378 110 283 44 65 11 2 9 31 24 86 17 6 79 Juan Pierre L LF 34 .273 .329 .321 145 535 71 146 15 4 1 38 36 37 34 15 75 Brandon Short R CF 23 .250 .294 .391 148 608 80 152 28 5 16 66 30 164 12 10 80 Dallas McPherson L 3B 31 .217 .281 .413 115 419 52 91 20 1 20 60 37 163 3 2 82 Tyler Saladino R SS 22 .234 .312 .377 123 478 81 112 25 5 11 45 47 138 8 8 82 Jim Gallagher L 1B 26 .235 .309 .346 146 557 70 131 31 2 9 54 57 121 6 3 74 Seth Loman L 1B 26 .219 .292 .371 140 529 58 116 21 1 19 63 33 193 2 1 75 Jordan Danks L CF 25 .227 .303 .348 126 466 63 106 21 4 9 43 47 166 13 5 73 Tyler Kuhn L 2B 25 .256 .302 .335 146 562 63 144 23 6 3 46 35 110 12 8 70 Eduardo Escobar B SS 23 .256 .290 .344 156 582 66 149 24 6 5 51 28 127 12 7 68 Josh Phegley R C 24 .230 .274 .356 95 365 42 84 17 1 9 46 20 87 1 2 66 Osvaldo Martinez R SS 24 .241 .295 .314 146 526 71 127 23 3 3 42 35 90 11 7 63 Gookie Dawkins R 3B 33 .210 .268 .337 99 347 32 73 18 1 8 33 25 117 6 4 60 Justin Greene R CF 26 .213 .276 .330 141 506 66 108 19 5 10 43 35 206 15 11 61 Christian Colonel R 3B 30 .218 .288 .308 65 211 23 46 8 1 3 13 19 51 1 2 59 Jared Mitchell L CF 23 .195 .268 .309 114 430 58 84 21 5 6 37 40 192 10 7 53 Donny Lucy R C 29 .206 .250 .289 54 180 17 37 6 0 3 11 9 54 2 1 43 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Paul Konerko FR/76 Carlos Quentin PO/88 PO/126 Dayan Viciedo FR/124 FR/151 FR/110 Alejandro de Aza VG/163 AV/137 VG/135 Adam Dunn PO/145 PO/137 PO/132 Alexei Ramirez VG/87 Ramon Castro FR A.J. Pierzynski FR Lastings Milledge AV/69 FR/96 AV/96 Alexis Rios AV/76 Gordon Beckham AV/87 AV/98 FR/107 Tyler Flowers FR FR/116 Brent Morel AV/79 FR/93 Brent Lillibridge AV/112 AV/114 AV/117 AV/117 AV/106 AV/97 AV/90 Juan Pierre AV/71 FR/113 Brandon Short AV/91 FR/106 AV/99 Dallas McPherson AV/105 FR/102 Tyler Saladino AV/119 Jim Gallagher FR/112 AV/93 FR/117 Seth Loman FR/120 FR/114 Jordan Danks VG/115 AV/45 VG/95 Tyler Kuhn AV/106 AV/95 PO/99 AV/44 Eduardo Escobar AV/133 VG/108 Josh Phegley VG FR/124 Osvaldo Martinez AV/108 AV/115 AV/126 Gookie Dawkins AV/78 AV/81 AV/2 PO/120 AV/106 Justin Greene AV/98 FR/119 Christian Colonel AV/101 FR/164 FR/115 FR/119 Jared Mitchell AV/127 Donny Lucy AV FR/118 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Chris Sale L 23 3.95 10 8 26 26 152.7 132 67 18 75 163 109 Gavin Floyd R 29 4.08 12 11 30 29 185.3 182 84 20 50 149 106 John Danks L 27 4.21 12 11 30 30 188.0 187 88 23 58 145 102 Mark Buehrle L 33 4.27 10 10 27 27 175.0 195 83 21 41 90 101 Jake Peavy R 31 4.30 8 7 21 20 119.3 121 57 14 31 102 100 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Dylan Axelrod R 26 4.54 5 6 27 19 117.0 130 59 10 38 75 95 Philip Humber R 29 4.86 7 8 26 23 140.7 155 76 19 37 89 89 Doug Davis L 36 5.25 5 8 18 18 96.0 109 56 11 48 66 82 Zach Stewart R 25 5.82 5 8 29 23 130.0 163 84 18 54 77 74 Joe Bisenius R 29 5.98 2 3 24 8 52.7 57 35 7 41 38 72 Jose Quintana L 23 6.14 4 8 30 12 88.0 102 60 17 45 56 70 Hector Santiago L 24 6.15 5 9 29 14 90.7 105 62 15 53 62 70 Donald Veal L 27 6.21 1 2 20 7 37.7 40 26 6 31 31 69 Deunte Heath R 26 6.33 3 6 33 11 79.7 92 56 12 60 64 68 Charles Leesman L 25 6.66 5 12 26 26 127.0 166 94 15 90 66 65 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Matt Thornton L 35 3.21 5 3 57 0 56.0 48 20 5 19 65 134 Sergio Santos R 28 3.53 4 3 60 0 58.7 48 23 6 27 73 122 Addison Reed R 23 3.67 4 3 58 0 76.0 67 31 8 28 81 117 Jesse Crain R 30 3.92 5 4 65 0 62.0 55 27 7 31 63 110 Jason Frasor R 34 3.93 4 3 60 0 55.0 51 24 6 25 54 110 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Will Ohman L 34 4.58 1 1 51 0 39.3 39 20 6 17 37 94 Tony Pena R 30 4.92 3 3 42 1 56.7 61 31 7 24 40 88 Josh Kinney R 33 4.95 3 4 55 0 60.0 64 33 7 27 46 87 Brian Bruney R 30 5.20 1 2 39 0 36.3 37 21 5 24 32 83 Miguel Socolovich R 25 5.37 3 5 40 2 58.7 62 35 7 40 46 80 Gregory Infante R 24 5.37 3 4 53 0 60.3 66 36 7 35 43 80 Jhan Marinez R 23 5.94 3 6 52 0 50.0 48 33 9 45 53 73 Shane Lindsay R 27 5.94 2 3 42 0 50.0 45 33 5 60 50 73 Anthony Carter R 26 6.12 1 3 48 0 57.3 66 39 10 34 42 70 Nathan Jones R 26 6.16 3 6 39 8 80.3 101 55 10 48 49 70 Leyson Septimo L 26 6.61 2 4 45 0 47.7 49 35 6 57 43 65 Freddy Dolsi R 29 6.72 3 7 31 9 71.0 92 53 13 36 38 64 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Paul Konerko .278 .352 .488 2598 9445 1315 2622 466 10 501 1622 1024 1549 13 117 Juan Pierre .293 .343 .357 1994 7720 1097 2263 259 92 17 547 486 485 609 83 A.J. Pierzynski .280 .317 .411 1958 7037 767 1972 401 21 159 819 288 764 18 90 Alexis Rios .267 .313 .417 1732 6596 897 1764 361 51 174 775 412 1067 227 91 Alexei Ramirez .271 .315 .406 1670 6294 824 1706 267 21 180 764 394 756 101 90 Carlos Quentin .253 .342 .469 1557 5455 787 1378 326 11 278 944 511 901 38 112 Gordon Beckham .249 .317 .384 1586 5476 747 1365 321 13 131 608 456 1067 51 86 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Mark Buehrle 227 189 0 4.11 576 552 3650 3990 1665 432 856 1980 109 John Danks 159 156 0 4.31 421 421 2610 2618 1251 332 840 2023 101 Jake Peavy 159 134 0 3.88 397 393 2394 2240 1033 262 722 2232 105 Gavin Floyd 158 147 0 4.43 413 398 2497 2514 1230 308 748 1946 99 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Paul Konerko 1B 24% 28% 24% 23% 3% Mike Piazza Fred McGriff Harold Baines Carlos Quentin RF 28% 44% 20% 7% 2% Kevin Mench Bubba Trammell Johnny Rizzo Dayan Viciedo RF 2% 15% 19% 28% 37% Jeff Francoeur Jose Guillen John Christensen Alejandro de Aza LF 1% 4% 13% 32% 52%Claudell Washington Dave Martinez Randy Winn Adam Dunn DH 3% 9% 19% 42% 29% Graham Koonce Pat Burrell Kevin Barker Alexei Ramirez SS 9% 21% 30% 33% 7% Jack Wilson Rick Burleson Hubie Brooks Ramon Castro C 11% 24% 26% 33% 7% Lance Parrish Paul Richards Carlton Fisk A.J. Pierzynski C 4% 10% 26% 42% 19% Paul Lo Duca Brian Harper Jamie Burke Lastings Milledge LF 0% 2% 3% 10% 86% Josh Rabe Skip Schumaker Dave Gallagher Alexis Rios CF 2% 5% 18% 39% 37% Jim Busby Garry Maddox Marquis Grissom Gordon Beckham 2B 4% 4% 11% 31% 51% Scott Brosius Joe Crede Mark Lewis Tyler Flowers C 5% 24% 28% 31% 14% Ben Shelton Jeff BaileyMaximiliano Ramirez Brent Morel 3B 1% 3% 2% 13% 83% Mark Lewis Kelly Paris Reno Bertoia Brent Lillibridge RF 1% 1% 6% 11% 83% Randy Kutcher Chris Jones Damon Mashore Juan Pierre LF 1% 1% 1% 5% 94% Tony Womack Kerry Robinson Doc Cramer Brandon Short CF 1% 2% 6% 21% 71% George Hinshaw Xavier Paul Francisco Batista Dallas McPherson 3B 1% 3% 5% 13% 80% Shanie Dugas Jim Presley Bill Hall Tyler Saladino SS 4% 3% 16% 32% 46% Jason Donald Dick Schofield Alex Gonzalez Jim Gallagher 1B 1% 0% 0% 2% 98% Gary Borg Ron Witmeyer Chad Alexander Seth Loman 1B 0% 0% 1% 6% 94% Chad Santos Ivan Cruz Drew Denson Jordan Danks CF 0% 1% 6% 13% 80% Ty Gainey Herm Winningham Xavier Paul Tyler Kuhn 2B 0% 0% 1% 1% 99% Manuel Lee Herman Iribarren Royce Clayton Eduardo Escobar SS 1% 2% 4% 18% 77% Alfredo Griffin Royce Clayton Manuel Lee Josh Phegley C 2% 3% 3% 11% 83% Jeff Winchester Joe Depastino Carlos Corporan Osvaldo Martinez SS 0% 0% 3% 9% 89% Jackie Gutierrez Pedro Chavez Jose Munoz Gookie Dawkins 3B 1% 0% 0% 1% 99% Tom Quinlan Pete Mackanin Jason Wood Justin Greene CF 0% 0% 0% 2% 99% John Denman Randy LaVigne Luis Terrero Christian Colonel 3B 0% 1% 0% 2% 98% Keith Johns Chris Petersen Drew Niles Jared Mitchell CF 0% 1% 1% 1% 99% Mickey Hall Stacey Pettis Greg Burns Donny Lucy C 0% 1% 1% 0% 99% Dave Ullery Charlie Greene Chris Curry Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Matt Thornton RP 62% 33% 5% Billy Wagner Dennis Cook Dan Plesac Sergio Santos RP 50% 41% 9% Bryan Harvey Jeff Little Jose Valverde Addison Reed RP 42% 49% 9% Antonio Osuna Jonathan Broxton Mark Wohlers Jesse Crain RP 26% 56% 18% Jason Frasor Mike Hartley Mike Williams Jason Frasor RP 30% 46% 24% Jeff Parrett Mike Fetters Jay Howell Chris Sale SP 52% 42% 6% Sid Fernandez Oliver Perez Dave Righetti Gavin Floyd SP 39% 54% 8% Bronson Arroyo Andy Ashby Matt Morris John Danks SP 27% 62% 10% Odalis Perez Bob Knepper John Smiley Mark Buehrle SP 34% 48% 18% Paul Minner Jim Kaat Geoff Zahn Jake Peavy SP 28% 55% 17% Erik Hanson Bret Saberhagen Shane Reynolds Dylan Axelrod SP 24% 52% 24% Ramiro Mendoza Bob Moose Brady Raggio Will Ohman RP 16% 32% 52% Trever Miller Paul Gibson Tim Byrdak Philip Humber SP 9% 47% 44% Bryan Rekar Dave Telgheder Tom Brennan Tony Pena RP 4% 32% 64% Kenny Greer Terry Leach Blake Mayo Josh Kinney RP 5% 32% 63% Dave Wainhouse Antonio Alfonseca Dale Murray Brian Bruney RP 4% 25% 71% Gregg Olson Reggie Harris Rich Croushore Doug Davis SP 3% 31% 66% Mark Langston Ken Hill Mike Flanagan Miguel Socolovich RP 1% 17% 82% Marc Pisciotta Jason Gilfillan Anthony Chavez Gregory Infante RP 2% 20% 78% Marc Pisciotta Anthony Chavez David Aardsma Zach Stewart SP 0% 11% 89% Marcus Jones Darrell Rasner Peter Bauer Jhan Marinez RP 1% 10% 89% Dana Ridenour Lariel Gonzalez Rickey Keeton Shane Lindsay RP 1% 10% 89% Bill Bene Calvin Jones Billy Sylvester Joe Bisenius RP 1% 7% 93% Jarod Juelsgaard Lou Kretlow Steve Green Anthony Carter RP 0% 6% 94% Rick Krivda Dan Boitano Jeff Kennard Jose Quintana SP 0% 2% 98% Vince Horsman Jamie Walker Reid Santos Hector Santiago SP 0% 2% 98% Ryan Jacobs Tyler Johnson Scott DeWitt Nathan Jones RP 0% 2% 98% Don Timberlake Barry Hertzler Julien Tucker Donald Veal SP 1% 6% 93% Tom Doyle Dave Walsh Jack Taschner Deunte Heath SP 0% 1% 99% Mike Butcher Bobby Rodgers Dilson Torres Leyson Septimo RP 0% 3% 97% Peter Bauer Tom Thurberg Jimmy Williams Charles Leesman SP 0% 1% 99% Mike Wodnicki Greg Kubes Matt Coenen Freddy Dolsi RP 0% 1% 99% Wes Wilkerson Reggie Ritter Justin Brunette Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Paul Konerko 13% 23% 36% 0% 0% 28% 20% 0% Carlos Quentin 2% 12% 42% 0% 0% 11% 12% 0% Dayan Viciedo 3% 1% 4% 1% 0% 13% 1% 0% Alejandro de Aza 2% 1% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 12% Adam Dunn 0% 4% 5% 0% 0% 22% 2% 0% Alexei Ramirez 7% 1% 4% 0% 0% 4% 1% 2% Ramon Castro 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% A.J. Pierzynski 6% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Lastings Milledge 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% Alexis Rios 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 8% Gordon Beckham 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% Tyler Flowers 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brent Morel 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% Brent Lillibridge 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% Juan Pierre 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 62% Brandon Short 0% 0% 1% 1% 7% 1% 0% 1% Dallas McPherson 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% Tyler Saladino 1% 1% 3% 0% 4% 2% 2% 1% Jim Gallagher 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% Seth Loman 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% Jordan Danks 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Tyler Kuhn 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% Eduardo Escobar 1% 0% 1% 1% 10% 0% 0% 1% Josh Phegley 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Osvaldo Martinez 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Gookie Dawkins 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Justin Greene 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% Christian Colonel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jared Mitchell 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 1% Donny Lucy 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Matt Thornton 54% 90% 98% 6% 77% Sergio Santos 42% 88% 98% 0% 73% Addison Reed 35% 84% 92% 2% 57% Jesse Crain 20% 71% 82% 0% 63% Jason Frasor 23% 69% 77% 0% 66% Chris Sale 16% 76% 94% 0% 45% Gavin Floyd 8% 69% 15% 17% 64% John Danks 5% 57% 10% 7% 44% Mark Buehrle 10% 57% 1% 48% 45% Jake Peavy 8% 55% 32% 33% 51% Dylan Axelrod 5% 46% 3% 6% 81% Will Ohman 10% 39% 61% 2% 34% Philip Humber 1% 23% 0% 22% 30% Tony Pena 4% 29% 4% 1% 48% Josh Kinney 3% 24% 12% 0% 57% Brian Bruney 4% 21% 43% 0% 48% Doug Davis 0% 12% 3% 0% 56% Miguel Socolovich 1% 13% 16% 0% 58% Gregory Infante 1% 17% 4% 0% 58% Zach Stewart 0% 1% 0% 0% 24% Jhan Marinez 0% 7% 89% 0% 25% Shane Lindsay 0% 8% 75% 0% 71% Joe Bisenius 0% 5% 9% 0% 47% Anthony Carter 0% 3% 5% 0% 17% Jose Quintana 0% 1% 0% 0% 6% Hector Santiago 0% 1% 1% 0% 12% Nathan Jones 0% 1% 0% 0% 46% Donald Veal 0% 7% 31% 0% 25% Deunte Heath 0% 1% 20% 0% 24% Leyson Septimo 0% 2% 46% 0% 40% Charles Leesman 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% Freddy Dolsi 0% 1% 1% 0% 14% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 17, 2011 at 06:27 PM | 21 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News: |
BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot Topics2012 ZiPS Projections, Final Edition
(23 - 11:21am, May 31) Last: craigsaboe 2012 ZiPS/RBI Baseball (20 - 10:58am, May 03) Last: tjans 2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1 (62 - 4:38pm, Apr 10) Last: nemodomi 2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A's (69 - 5:57am, Apr 10) Last: Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz 2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals (31 - 1:51pm, Mar 23) Last: hokieneer Pirates - Acquire Burnett (10 - 11:09pm, Feb 20) Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) 2012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates (41 - 10:02am, Feb 20) Last: Dangerous Dean 2012 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins (31 - 8:53pm, Feb 17) Last: A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo 2012 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox (46 - 4:41pm, Feb 17) Last: Jose is an Absurd Sultan 2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres (29 - 2:33pm, Feb 17) Last: Dan Szymborski 2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks (31 - 2:03am, Feb 14) Last: Dan Szymborski 2012 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers (21 - 12:43pm, Feb 10) Last: DEF: selfish min-maxer 2012 ZiPS Projections - Miami Marlins (31 - 8:16pm, Feb 07) Last: Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome 2012 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians (19 - 10:18pm, Feb 02) Last: DevinM 2012 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves (28 - 6:25pm, Jan 31) Last: Spahn Insane Syndicate |
|||||||
|
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| | ||||||
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Davo Posted: November 17, 2011 at 06:45 PM (#3995780)Quentin is 29. Hmm.
Quentin
Viciedo
de Aza
Dunn
Any chance you can do a projection for Terry Doyle? He's not much of a prospect IMO but he pitched well in the AFL & the Sox brass seems to like him.
There's a name out of the not-so-distant past. He apparently pitched up until 2009 in the Mexican League.
He made the team out of spring training & played in a few early season games. His defense was horrible & I believe he sent down for a reliever, though I'm not sure if I'm remembering things correctly.
He's young & athletic enough to play the outfield decently, he just takes really bad routes to balls. He's limited to LF & RF and I'm not really sure how valuable a corner outfielder who hits .260/.320/.380 really is. Plus the Sox already have better versions of Milledge in Lillibridge & De Aza.
I think a lot of Sox fans are banking on De Aza hitting something close to his 2011 numbers, like .300/.350/.450. I think Dan's projection is a lot closer to what he'll hit. I've heard comparisons to Shane Victorino, but Victorino was a solid major league hitter by age 25. De Aza will be 28 next year. This was mentioned on a Sox blog, but I wouldn't mind if they brought in David DeJesus instead of hoping Lillibridge or Jordan Danks will cut it as a 4th outfielder.
There's been talk of Danks, Quentin and Floyd being dealt to shed more salary/get younger, but if you do that you're leaving pretty gaping holes. I doubt they'd get much in the way of big-time prospects for any of those three, so I'd just as soon hold onto them and go for one more push, on the hopes that:
- Dunn and, to a lesser extent, Peavy bounce back. Peavy's peripherals have been very good while he's been with the Sox. The issue is that he's been hurt, and that his ERA hasn't matched the peripherals. I think the discrepancy between 2011 bWAR versus fWAR was something like 1.5 to 3.0.
- The young players -- Beckham, Morel, Viciedo and Flowers -- are able to take a step forward. Beckham hit a wall this year and looked atrocious at the plate. Morel had an encouraging second half, and given his glove, a 90 OPS+ or so makes him a useful player. I'm not sure if Flowers will get a starting shot like the others will, but if Pierzynski can be dealt (1 year, $6 million, IIRC), that's probably another chance to save some money without losing much production.
- The pitching staff bounces back. I think the 2011 Sox finished finished second in all of baseball in pitching fWAR, which I found pretty surprising. Humber's likely to fall back a bit, but the rest of the staff are likely a good bet to match or better their 2011 numbers, which they'll more-than-need to do if the Sox hope to compete with Detroit, Cleveland and/or Kansas City.
There's a lot of ways to approach it mathematically, but it's worth remembering that there's a lot of "trials" happening as we observe baseball players, and as such really bizarre things will happen from time to time.
Most systems essentially split the difference between "new level of play" and "bizarre fluke" by simply weighting the most recent season more heavily than the past ones, but still drawing significant info from seasons two and three years ago.
In this case, the end result is a player Adam Dunn has never actually been in the big leagues. but sometimes that's precisely what happens (Wade Boggs after 1992 is a decent example).
I've been a near one-man touting machine for de Aza's cromulency for years on this site. That's still what he is - nice glove for a corner, adequate bat v. righties, some speed without knowing how to run.
Can no one hit *and* field on this team? I guess Alexei, kind of. Ugh - what a horrid org to look at - they're a better
ALversion of Houston.I'm rooting for Axelrod, though (changeup specialist plunked out of indy ball after SD cut him for reasons that weren't clear at the time).
I think Konerko's fine with the glove. At age 36, he doesn't have much range of course. But he can get to balls near to him with few mistakes & he's a pickin machine (this is especially valuable considering Ramirez is erratic with his throws).
If only Beckham can bump his OBP up about 50 points he'd basically be Mark Ellis because his defense is amazing.
You mentioned last year that you were toying with the idea of creating a projection disk that could be used with DMB10, is that still on the table? Or is it going to remain on DMB9 only? Our league has always used DMB9 so I don't care, just want to know. Thanks.
Oof.
Could we see projections for Brandon Kloess and Dan Remonosky? Thanks.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main