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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Thursday, November 10, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - Detroit TigersThe Tigers aren’t really a 95-win team - there are a lot more players likely to have worse seasons than better in 2012 - but while the Tigers would have an issue repeating in the AL East, there aren’t any teams in the AL Central that are all that scary. The team’s top-heavy and has some depth issues that need to be taken care of prior to the season as they can’t simply enter another season with Brandon Inge at 3rd and Ryan Raburn is a Plan B or C starter, not a Plan A one.
Another starter (bringing back Edwin Jackson?) would be incredibly useful. The team *wants* to enter the season with a Verlander-Fister-Scherzer-Porcello-Turner, but I still think Jacob Turner should start the season at AAA. Porcello’s just not that dependable and it’s better to allow Turner to dominate the upper minors for a few months, something he hasn’t done yet, and risk the difficult decision involving too many starters rather than too few.
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Miguel Cabrera R 1B 29 .310 .406 .548 153 558 94 173 38 1 31 99 91 97 3 2 155 Victor Martinez B DH 33 .295 .354 .444 138 525 65 155 31 1 15 82 49 56 1 0 114 Brennan Boesch L LF 27 .269 .332 .438 133 484 65 130 27 2 17 63 42 102 8 3 106 Alex Avila L C 25 .254 .348 .420 130 414 47 105 23 2 14 56 60 116 2 1 106 Delmon Young R LF 26 .283 .317 .441 149 558 71 158 30 2 18 86 26 95 4 3 102 Jhonny Peralta R SS 30 .268 .320 .423 149 556 62 149 29 3 17 80 44 105 1 1 98 Wilson Betemit B 3B 30 .252 .314 .412 102 337 37 85 20 2 10 46 31 97 3 1 94 Ryan Raburn R 2B 31 .255 .308 .429 121 361 48 92 20 2 13 47 25 96 3 3 96 Austin Jackson R CF 25 .259 .321 .375 156 613 85 159 27 10 8 47 53 172 24 6 88 Andy Dirks L LF 26 .261 .305 .383 135 491 62 128 23 2 11 53 29 89 17 5 84 Carlos Guillen B 2B 36 .252 .316 .387 66 238 27 60 12 1 6 30 22 44 2 2 88 Don Kelly L 3B 32 .256 .302 .378 121 312 39 80 11 3 7 30 18 45 6 2 82 Ramon Santiago B 2B 32 .258 .321 .364 98 264 30 68 9 2 5 26 21 45 1 1 85 Magglio Ordonez R RF 38 .262 .317 .363 87 325 36 85 12 0 7 38 27 44 1 1 83 Will Rhymes L 2B 29 .263 .316 .330 140 533 64 140 20 5 2 34 41 64 14 8 75 Ryan Strieby R 1B 26 .223 .296 .362 118 453 46 101 19 1 14 55 43 152 3 1 77 Brandon Inge R 3B 35 .222 .296 .357 131 428 44 95 16 3 12 50 41 120 2 3 76 Jeff Salazar L CF 31 .216 .289 .325 108 348 46 75 10 2 8 36 35 85 14 2 66 Clete Thomas L CF 28 .215 .279 .337 104 344 36 74 14 2 8 38 29 118 15 3 66 Nick Castellanos R 3B 20 .241 .282 .351 156 607 55 146 33 2 10 66 35 175 3 2 70 Scott Thorman L 1B 30 .233 .274 .364 117 442 43 103 17 1 13 54 23 88 7 4 71 Danny Worth R 3B 26 .231 .286 .328 119 402 42 93 17 2 6 32 29 100 10 4 65 Jamie Johnson L CF 25 .230 .315 .303 133 521 66 120 22 5 2 33 62 109 9 9 68 Maxim St. Pierre R C 32 .230 .270 .329 75 243 20 56 9 0 5 25 12 40 1 1 61 Bryan Pounds R 3B 26 .223 .291 .311 119 444 43 99 20 2 5 45 37 136 2 4 63 Clay Timpner L LF 29 .235 .280 .304 77 260 26 61 10 1 2 26 16 43 4 2 58 Audy Ciriaco R SS 25 .234 .255 .338 123 474 49 111 18 5 7 46 11 103 8 5 58 Omir Santos R C 31 .231 .259 .298 69 208 16 48 8 0 2 21 6 40 0 0 50 Argenis Diaz R SS 25 .235 .287 .279 123 426 40 100 15 2 0 29 30 93 4 5 54 Cale Iorg R SS 26 .198 .233 .292 135 510 47 101 20 2 8 32 19 174 12 8 41 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Miguel Cabrera FR/112 Victor Martinez FR AV/102 Brennan Boesch AV/119 AV/137 Alex Avila AV FR/119 PO/119 Delmon Young FR/120 Jhonny Peralta AV/118 FR/75 AV/60 Wilson Betemit AV/99 PO/118 FR/117 PO/94 AV/117 Ryan Raburn AV/109 FR/129 PO/117 AV/160 FR/102 FR/143 Austin Jackson VG/104 VG/85 VG/97 Andy Dirks VG/60 AV/138 AV/111 Carlos Guillen FR/116 FR/99 FR/116 Don Kelly AV/105 FR/117 AV/100 PO/119 AV/80 AV/83 AV/104 Ramon Santiago AV/80 AV/118 AV/76 Magglio Ordonez FR/89 Will Rhymes AV/68 FR/106 PO/99 FR/106 FR/116 FR/119 Ryan Strieby AV/97 FR/126 Brandon Inge AV/74 Jeff Salazar AV/97 AV/102 AV/80 Clete Thomas AV/111 AV/120 AV/81 Nick Castellanos FR/138 Scott Thorman AV/86 FR/99 FR/125 FR/134 Danny Worth VG/111 VG/92 PO/88 Jamie Johnson VG/112 AV/95 Maxim St. Pierre VG Bryan Pounds AV/117 AV/111 FR/128 Clay Timpner AV/109 AV/89 AV/118 AV/118 Audy Ciriaco AV/110 AV/135 Omir Santos FR Argenis Diaz VG/109 VG/98 AV/114 Cale Iorg AV/115 VG/117 AV/128 FR/118 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Justin Verlander R 29 2.96 19 8 32 32 225.3 185 74 19 59 231 144 Doug Fister R 28 3.98 12 9 31 28 183.3 196 81 16 32 105 107 Max Scherzer R 27 4.07 12 10 31 31 185.7 182 84 23 61 172 105 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Rick Porcello R 23 4.57 11 11 29 29 173.3 193 88 18 48 100 93 Jacob Turner R 21 4.82 5 5 23 23 134.3 152 72 15 46 78 88 Drew Smyly L 23 4.90 8 9 22 21 112.0 124 61 13 47 61 87 Adam Wilk L 24 5.06 7 8 25 22 126.3 148 71 19 26 65 84 Brad Penny R 34 5.14 7 8 21 21 122.7 144 70 16 40 60 83 Jay Voss L 25 5.32 5 7 35 12 91.3 105 54 12 40 53 80 Casey Crosby L 23 5.48 6 9 24 24 108.3 117 66 12 79 73 78 Duane Below L 26 5.56 5 8 24 19 102.0 118 63 16 44 57 77 Brayan Villarreal R 25 5.66 4 7 28 15 90.7 103 57 14 47 59 75 Andrew Oliver L 24 5.69 8 12 27 27 140.7 161 89 20 80 96 75 Thad Weber R 27 6.36 6 12 25 25 138.7 182 98 26 48 65 67 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Joaquin Benoit R 34 3.33 4 2 60 0 54.0 46 20 6 16 58 128 Jose Valverde R 34 3.55 3 2 61 0 58.3 49 23 5 29 56 120 Al Alburquerque R 26 3.83 4 3 42 0 47.0 40 20 4 29 53 111 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Phil Coke L 29 4.10 6 5 59 7 83.3 85 38 6 32 60 104 Joel Zumaya R 27 4.23 1 1 23 0 27.7 27 13 3 12 23 101 Daniel Schlereth L 26 4.26 3 2 54 0 57.0 51 27 5 38 53 100 Ryan Perry R 25 4.26 3 2 60 0 69.7 68 33 6 32 53 100 Bobby Korecky R 32 4.29 3 3 39 0 42.0 43 20 4 15 28 99 Luis Marte R 25 4.50 2 2 35 1 54.0 53 27 6 30 45 95 David Pauley R 29 4.58 4 4 61 0 72.7 78 37 8 25 40 93 Brad Thomas L 34 4.82 2 2 29 0 37.3 42 20 4 17 20 88 Brendan Wise R 26 4.95 4 4 47 0 63.7 76 35 5 28 26 86 Robbie Weinhardt R 26 4.96 3 3 46 0 61.7 69 34 6 27 39 86 David Purcey L 30 4.96 2 2 43 0 45.3 46 25 5 29 34 86 Matt Hoffman L 23 5.12 3 3 49 0 58.0 67 33 6 26 31 83 Fu-Te Ni L 29 5.20 2 3 39 5 71.0 81 41 9 30 45 82 Jared Gayhart R 25 5.23 4 5 41 2 65.3 71 38 8 37 41 81 Lester Oliveros R 24 5.25 2 3 51 0 58.3 62 34 8 34 46 81 Jose Ortega R 23 5.95 2 3 39 0 56.0 67 37 7 33 33 72 Enrique Gonzalez R 29 6.24 4 8 35 10 79.3 100 55 13 38 46 68 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Miguel Cabrera .302 .382 .518 2858 10692 1642 3229 691 23 523 1836 1372 1830 57 138 Magglio Ordonez .306 .365 .494 1967 7425 1125 2273 443 21 303 1288 687 911 95 123 Jhonny Peralta .264 .319 .411 2202 8229 981 2169 421 36 239 1115 673 1597 12 95 Victor Martinez .296 .357 .449 1832 6900 880 2043 418 4 210 1121 667 776 10 115 Delmon Young .280 .315 .425 1823 6873 844 1924 375 23 192 1008 322 1179 63 97 Austin Jackson .256 .319 .369 1692 6665 932 1708 304 91 89 501 583 1796 211 86 Carlos Guillen .280 .348 .433 1502 5391 808 1508 301 54 139 744 567 924 78 107 Alex Avila .248 .345 .409 1883 5923 652 1467 321 31 190 781 883 1541 40 103 Brandon Inge .233 .303 .383 1618 5324 597 1241 238 43 158 670 482 1377 49 82 Brennan Boesch .262 .326 .423 1269 4589 596 1201 251 20 149 572 396 901 66 101 Wilson Betemit .257 .320 .422 1264 3620 419 931 216 20 114 484 340 990 22 97 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Justin Verlander 270 145 0 3.40 502 502 3405 2955 1285 324 985 3293 127 Rick Porcello 175 160 0 4.47 433 433 2583 2798 1282 285 701 1540 95 Max Scherzer 150 134 0 4.17 409 400 2396 2364 1110 312 812 2227 102 Brad Penny 138 126 0 4.42 386 381 2254 2415 1108 241 727 1433 97 Doug Fister 127 119 0 3.98 358 335 2165 2294 958 209 398 1240 106 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Miguel Cabrera 1B 83% 13% 3% 1% 0% Manny Ramirez Jason Giambi Jeff Bagwell Victor Martinez DH 5% 27% 31% 31% 6% David Segui Dale Alexander Kevin Millar Brennan Boesch LF 6% 22% 36% 23% 14% Mike Lum Chad Tracy Derrek Lee Alex Avila C 22% 52% 20% 6% 1% Geovany Soto Jerry Willard Chris Iannetta Delmon Young LF 1% 11% 16% 44% 30% Mark Quinn Luis Montanez Wil Cordero Jhonny Peralta SS 12% 35% 32% 20% 2% Charlie Hayes Mike Shannon Steve Buechele Wilson Betemit 3B 2% 12% 26% 33% 28% Mike Blowers Tony Phillips Jim Lefebvre Ryan Raburn 2B 10% 17% 26% 30% 18% Mike Blowers Ray Jablonski Jeff Kent Austin Jackson CF 4% 7% 34% 42% 15% Roberto Kelly Marlon Byrd Marquis Grissom Andy Dirks LF 1% 1% 3% 13% 83% Cameron Drew Alan Cartwright Ricky Nelson Carlos Guillen 2B 6% 9% 9% 24% 53% Marty McManus Ray Durham Mike Bordick Don Kelly 3B 2% 3% 6% 18% 72% Eddie Zosky Alex Cora Gene Alley Ramon Santiago 2B 2% 5% 10% 16% 68% Nelson Liriano Andy Phillips Casey Candaele Magglio Ordonez RF 0% 2% 3% 12% 84% Rich Aurilia Ken Griffey Russ Morman Will Rhymes 2B 0% 0% 7% 11% 83% Jamey Carroll Jose Uribe Doug Griffin Ryan Strieby 1B 0% 0% 0% 5% 95% James Jurries Pat Adams Josh Bonifay Brandon Inge 3B 0% 2% 6% 12% 82% Shane Halter Jason Wood Jed Hansen Jeff Salazar CF 0% 2% 1% 15% 82% Kevin Koslofski Marc Sagmoen Nate Murphy Clete Thomas CF 1% 0% 3% 13% 84% Damon Mashore Juan Camilo Kevin Koslofski Nick Castellanos 3B 1% 0% 2% 4% 95% Brook Jacoby Stan Royer George Hinshaw Scott Thorman 1B 0% 0% 1% 3% 97% Jay Gainer Mike Bell Mike Robertson Danny Worth 3B 0% 1% 1% 3% 96% Bert Pena Mendy Lopez Woody Woods Jamie Johnson CF 0% 0% 1% 3% 97% Troy Thomas Jeff Salazar Drew Macias Maxim St. Pierre C 0% 0% 1% 6% 93% Charlie Greene Chad Moeller Chris Ashby Bryan Pounds 3B 0% 0% 0% 2% 99% Adam Morrissey John Hotchkiss Chad Spann Clay Timpner LF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Brian Keck Tim Leiper Jason Fitzgerald Audy Ciriaco SS 1% 2% 1% 3% 94% Hector Tiburcio Santiago Henry Jason Bowers Omir Santos C 0% 1% 1% 1% 98% Charlie Greene Pedro Grifol Chad Moeller Argenis Diaz SS 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Benny Ruiz Rod Correia Oswaldo Navarro Cale Iorg SS 1% 1% 0% 1% 99% Jason Dellaero Neil Walton Tim Holland Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Justin Verlander SP 91% 4% 5% John Smoltz Roger Clemens Pedro Martinez Joaquin Benoit RP 57% 35% 8% Trevor Hoffman Tom Henke John Wetteland Jose Valverde RP 45% 41% 14% Jason Kershner Jeff Nelson Curt Leskanic Al Alburquerque RP 36% 47% 17% Mark Littell Brian Bruney Steve Sharts Doug Fister SP 51% 44% 5% Josh Towers Donne Wall Bill Gullickson Max Scherzer SP 38% 55% 6% Ian Snell Brett Myers Andy Benes Phil Coke RP 14% 56% 29% Dave Rucker Alan Newman Mike Mohler Joel Zumaya RP 28% 34% 38% Steve Andrade Derrick Turnbow Jason Bulger Daniel Schlereth RP 13% 48% 39% Armando Almanza Darren Oliver Ron Villone Ryan Perry RP 16% 51% 33% Lee Smith Alejandro Pena Brian Bowles Bobby Korecky RP 14% 40% 46% Kirk BullingerBrandon Villafuerte Bryan Corey Luis Marte RP 10% 37% 54% Brad Voyles Kevin Barry Bob Gibson Rick Porcello SP 11% 62% 27% Joe Johnson Jimmy Jones Chris Holt David Pauley RP 8% 44% 49% Steve Schmoll Jason Karnuth Luther Hackman Brad Thomas RP 11% 26% 63% Mike Venafro Marshall Bridges C.J. Nitkowski Jacob Turner SP 5% 51% 44% Josh Fogg Sergio Mitre George Stablein Drew Smyly SP 6% 45% 49% Tom McGraw John Daniels Danny Borrell Brendan Wise RP 3% 24% 73% Scott Munter Rosman Garcia Jack Cassel Robbie Weinhardt RP 3% 28% 68% Mike Gardner Fernando Rodney Shawn Hill David Purcey RP 5% 25% 70% Mike Kinnunen Kevin Tolar Arnold Earley Adam Wilk SP 5% 40% 55% Randy Leek Steve Comer Dave Gassner Matt Hoffman RP 3% 27% 71% Danny Zell Anthony Ferrari Tim Hamulack Brad Penny SP 4% 30% 66% Pat Ahearne Walt Terrell Aaron Sele Fu-Te Ni RP 1% 19% 80% Matt Perisho Joe Beimel Sherman Corbett Jared Gayhart RP 1% 18% 81% David Aardsma Blake Mayo Heathcliff Slocumb Lester Oliveros RP 2% 22% 77% Chris Schroder Ken Giard Jeff Heathcock Jay Voss SP 0% 13% 87% Ben Kozlowski Oscar Alvarez Don Florence Casey Crosby SP 1% 19% 80% Jordan Pals Juan Ovalles Neal Cotts Duane Below SP 1% 14% 85% Josh Muecke Dan Smith Rich Pratt Brayan Villarreal SP 1% 13% 86% Chris Reinike Bob Owchinko Derek Brandow Andrew Oliver SP 0% 10% 90% Greg Cadaret Matt Perisho Phil Norton Jose Ortega RP 0% 8% 92% John Lujan Sean Green Elvis Polanco Enrique Gonzalez RP 0% 2% 98% Rosman Garcia Wes Wilkerson Mike Meyers Thad Weber SP 0% 1% 99% Kyle Middleton Greg Biercevicz Brad Ziegler Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Miguel Cabrera 71% 88% 82% 15% 0% 59% 79% 0% Victor Martinez 38% 13% 7% 2% 0% 1% 3% 0% Brennan Boesch 2% 2% 6% 0% 1% 2% 2% 2% Alex Avila 1% 8% 3% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% Delmon Young 6% 0% 4% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% Jhonny Peralta 3% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% Wilson Betemit 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Ryan Raburn 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Austin Jackson 3% 1% 1% 1% 58% 0% 0% 23% Andy Dirks 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% Carlos Guillen 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Don Kelly 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Ramon Santiago 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Magglio Ordonez 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Will Rhymes 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% Ryan Strieby 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brandon Inge 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Jeff Salazar 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Clete Thomas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Nick Castellanos 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% Scott Thorman 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% Danny Worth 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Jamie Johnson 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Maxim St. Pierre 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Bryan Pounds 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Clay Timpner 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Audy Ciriaco 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Omir Santos 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Argenis Diaz 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Cale Iorg 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Justin Verlander 76% 94% 89% 23% 85% Joaquin Benoit 48% 89% 91% 19% 61% Jose Valverde 37% 81% 72% 0% 69% Al Alburquerque 36% 77% 92% 0% 83% Doug Fister 16% 76% 0% 89% 79% Max Scherzer 8% 70% 63% 2% 44% Phil Coke 11% 59% 5% 2% 87% Joel Zumaya 28% 62% 26% 5% 71% Daniel Schlereth 9% 54% 58% 0% 69% Ryan Perry 12% 60% 9% 0% 82% Bobby Korecky 14% 45% 4% 6% 72% Luis Marte 6% 39% 25% 0% 65% Rick Porcello 1% 33% 0% 16% 67% David Pauley 6% 39% 0% 5% 64% Brad Thomas 7% 30% 1% 2% 71% Jacob Turner 0% 22% 0% 1% 59% Drew Smyly 0% 19% 0% 0% 51% Brendan Wise 2% 21% 0% 1% 88% Robbie Weinhardt 2% 25% 0% 0% 76% David Purcey 3% 23% 13% 0% 62% Adam Wilk 1% 15% 0% 69% 21% Matt Hoffman 2% 18% 0% 0% 60% Brad Penny 1% 13% 0% 6% 39% Fu-Te Ni 0% 12% 0% 0% 42% Jared Gayhart 1% 15% 0% 0% 52% Lester Oliveros 1% 14% 17% 0% 51% Jay Voss 0% 8% 0% 0% 38% Casey Crosby 0% 4% 1% 0% 60% Duane Below 0% 3% 0% 0% 15% Brayan Villarreal 0% 4% 0% 0% 22% Andrew Oliver 0% 2% 2% 0% 26% Jose Ortega 0% 4% 0% 0% 42% Enrique Gonzalez 0% 1% 1% 0% 18% Thad Weber 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 10, 2011 at 06:23 PM | 33 comment(s)
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1. danieljI didn't realize Raburn was on the wrong side of 30.
his career is 105
and he's at 128 the last 2 years and 114 over the past 4.
Don't get me wrong, I think Betemit is completely capable of coughing up a 94 (or worse) but mathematically you'd think his median projection would be quite a bit higher
Who is this? Oh, did you mean Alberto José Alburquerque?
Pitching is a similar story, as Verlander can't be as otherworldly as he was this season. A full year of Fister will help, but I agree with Dan that we desperately need another starter or two to get back to the playoffs and have any shot at advancing in them. But the team gets weird blind spots with pitching- last year they preceded from the ironclad belief that Phil Coke was gonna be a fine #4 starter, dammit. We know how that went.
Jackson is an interesting idea, wonder how much of his great success as a Tiger had to do with the since-canned Rick Knapp.
The Tigers can have another great season in 2011, provided they fill in the obvious holes.
Boy, that's an unfortunate name.
Was he ever supposed to be that good? He's never seemed to strike out anyone at any level.
Also, I knew that people like to say that Cale Iorg can't hit, but I had never actually looked up his statistics before. And man, he really can't hit. That's still a heck of a projection, though - a .233 OBP!
How is Peralta at SS? Asdrubal pushed him off the position in Cleveland, but since that time Peralta's BB-Ref fielding numbers blow Cabrera's out of the water. I always thought of him as a bat-first SS, but his defensive numbers look quite good.
Porcello was once the top pitching prospect in the game, or near to it. The lack of strikeouts in the minors was supposedly due to the Tigers' decision to make him work on his offspeed stuff by having him pitch to contact. The notion was that, once that period was finished, the strikeouts would come.
Instead, we have the stats of Tim Wakefield.
I always remember when the Braves decided to patch their bullpen by trading their starting 1B (coming of an age 26 season with 32 HR and a 130 OPS+) away because they were covered with Scott Thorman ready to step in. It, ah, didn't really work out too well. They ended up paying a king's ransom to acquire 157 games out of the middle of Mart Teixiera's career the next season.
Just from watching him, he seems pretty solid, won't make too many mistakes, seems good at turning the DP, a bit more range than you'd think (but not much).
Porcello got rushed, but also might have been overrated as a prospect because of how polished he was. I don't think he's noticeably better than he was 3 years ago.
Occasionally, like in one of his playoff starts, he'll surprise you and K a bunch of guys, but he just doesn't have enough of an out pitch to be very good, especially against lefties.
If the Tigers signed Rance Mullinicks' son, Cale's stats would probably dramatically improve.
How much do you charge for a ride in your time machine?
Duly noted, and nominated for the Jeff Mathis Futility Award.
I hope the Tigers take a flyer on him, but I don't believe he pitched at all in 2011. Always liked him
Perhaps the Tigers should see if Martin Prado is available and put him at 2B.
I think he was regarded as the best HS pitcher of his particular draft class, BA had him #21 overall twice...
The Ks have not come, but he doesn't walk guys and his HRs allowed are manageable
His BABIP has gone
.279
.308
.318
HIs K/BB has gone
1.71
2.21
2.26
HIS HR/9 has gone:
1.2
1.0
0.9
If you are going to go with DIPS theory you might say the following:
1: K/BB and HR/9 are more reflective of a pitcher's skill than BABIP -Porcello has been progressing, but his random BABIP fluctuation obscures that
2: Since he is a low K pitcher, BABIP fluctuations affect his ERA more than most pitchers.
If Porcello gave up a league average BABIP of .297 his opponent batting line would have been .271/.318/.414 rather than .292/.339/.435, and OPS+ against of 99 rather than 110
He should end up in the .540 range.
his career is 105
and he's at 128 the last 2 years and 114 over the past 4.
Don't get me wrong, I think Betemit is completely capable of coughing up a 94 (or worse) but mathematically you'd think his median projection would be quite a bit higher
Betemit had almost 300 PAs at AAA in 2009 with an OBP under .300, and wasn't very good in the minors in 2010 either--I'm sure that factors into his projection.
Tigers are due to win a trade with the Braves..
<Runs before the Tigers' faithful start pelting me with car spare parts >
1: League slugging during Cabrera's career has been .424, last year in Comerica it was .410, I think ZiPS simply uses the last year's offensive context.
2: ZiPS sees him as going .485 over 5650 at bats to finish his career- that's equivalent to about .502 compared to Cabrera's career to date context (so .555 through 28, and .502 post 28). His bbref comps averaged .552 through 28, and .505 after (they also averaged 4977 at bats through age 28 and 3778 after)
So ZiPS drops him about 5 point sin slugging- but gives him 2 full extra decline years, the end result is quite reasonable.
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