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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Monday, December 19, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - Houston AstrosAt some point, to bash the Houston Astros simply becomes piling-on. The 2011 Astros were not only a lousy team, but a team that applied lousiness consistently across all the various aspects of baseball, and needed 6 WAR from the departed Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn just to get up to 56 wins. The long reckoning expected by observers for an organization that had a GM in Ed Wade that simultaneously ignored the major leagues, the minors leagues, and any kind of thrift, finally came to pass, with no late season mirage of adequacy to convince the team to double-down on failure.
The GM of this mess is gone. The owner that owned this mess is gone. And the scene of the crime, the NL Central, will be gone as well in another year (at least, as far as the AL West-bound Astros are concerned). New GM Jeff Luhnow has a long, difficult task ahead of him and one that’s going to require a lot of patience from ownership and fans - the upper levels of the organization look a bit like the baseball equivalent of post-World War II Europe if we had gone in and just kept bombing the cities for a few more years just for the hell of it.
There’s one silver lining at least. The farm system is no longer the worst in the majors and while there’s still a great deal more to do, the team does have a lot of good prospects down in the low levels. Players at very low levels are obviously more speculative than AA and AAA prospects, so that strength doesn’t show up in 2012 projections.
Next Up: Atlanta Braves
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Carlos Lee R LF 36 .273 .323 .441 141 542 63 148 30 2 19 89 39 54 4 3 106 J.D. Martinez R LF 24 .281 .335 .414 153 584 77 164 35 2 13 85 44 126 3 1 104 Jose Altuve R 2B 22 .292 .326 .403 156 640 80 187 27 7 10 66 32 89 33 21 98 Brett Wallace L 1B 25 .258 .322 .403 147 516 61 133 28 1 15 60 40 135 1 1 97 Jed Lowrie B SS 28 .249 .316 .414 86 285 35 71 17 3 8 35 29 57 1 1 97 Matt Downs R 2B 28 .255 .315 .413 116 341 48 87 22 1 10 49 25 67 5 4 97 Jason Bourgeois R CF 30 .273 .311 .351 126 388 50 106 13 4 3 30 20 46 28 8 81 Chris Johnson R 3B 27 .255 .294 .403 136 499 56 127 27 4 13 64 24 131 3 1 88 Nick Stavinoha R 1B 30 .248 .289 .411 130 443 47 110 23 2 15 63 23 91 3 1 89 Andrew Locke R RF 29 .240 .292 .380 135 471 52 113 27 3 11 63 32 104 5 2 82 Brian Bogusevic L RF 28 .233 .304 .348 138 443 57 103 22 4 7 45 42 119 16 3 78 Jimmy Paredes B 3B 23 .254 .281 .376 156 638 80 162 32 8 10 59 23 155 35 15 78 Marwin Gonzalez B SS 23 .260 .300 .351 146 507 54 132 26 4 4 47 28 72 8 4 77 J.B. Shuck L LF 25 .259 .328 .326 150 549 71 142 18 8 1 33 55 73 15 9 80 Jacob Goebbert L RF 24 .249 .304 .358 136 514 55 128 30 4 6 62 36 105 6 5 80 Joe Inglett L 2B 34 .244 .308 .333 68 156 18 38 7 2 1 9 13 31 3 1 75 James van Ostrand R 1B 27 .245 .300 .353 121 408 37 100 21 1 7 52 30 89 1 2 78 Jason Castro L C 25 .235 .309 .335 100 358 45 84 16 1 6 34 37 83 2 2 76 Angel Sanchez R SS 28 .252 .304 .324 122 401 48 101 17 3 2 40 29 67 4 2 72 Jordan Schafer L CF 25 .224 .291 .320 107 397 51 89 17 3 5 27 37 107 18 7 67 Collin DeLome L CF 26 .206 .258 .373 118 407 50 84 17 6 13 46 21 156 10 4 70 Koby Clemens R 1B 25 .202 .277 .349 136 476 50 96 22 3 14 63 45 175 3 2 70 Jon Gaston L RF 25 .209 .267 .346 137 506 61 106 20 8 11 54 37 173 10 3 66 Anderson HernandezB 2B 29 .239 .291 .317 133 461 47 110 18 3 4 37 34 83 11 7 66 David Flores R 3B 25 .228 .273 .339 123 448 46 102 21 1 9 49 22 96 2 2 66 Wladimir Sutil R SS 27 .249 .300 .294 119 422 53 105 16 0 1 25 27 55 16 8 63 Carlos Corporan B C 28 .220 .276 .335 78 254 25 56 13 2 4 28 16 70 1 1 66 Oswaldo Navarro R 3B 27 .229 .297 .302 116 371 43 85 16 1 3 32 33 84 3 3 64 Jonathan Villar B SS 21 .212 .273 .328 156 609 74 129 24 7 11 56 46 228 33 17 63 Humberto Quintero R C 32 .236 .264 .323 82 254 25 60 11 1 3 23 7 56 0 0 59 Brandon Barnes R CF 26 .207 .258 .349 142 527 55 109 26 5 13 52 33 183 7 5 64 Robinson Cancel R C 36 .228 .277 .300 78 263 21 60 11 1 2 24 17 53 6 2 58 Jiovanni Mier R SS 21 .218 .293 .301 148 578 73 126 26 2 6 59 58 170 11 8 63 Craig Tatum R C 29 .218 .276 .302 66 202 18 44 9 1 2 22 16 48 1 1 58 Jose Vallejo B 2B 25 .215 .260 .285 98 316 30 68 9 2 3 25 19 83 7 2 49 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Carlos Lee FR/117 FR/94 J.D. Martinez AV/146 AV/146 Jose Altuve AV/138 Brett Wallace AV/119 FR/117 Jed Lowrie AV/117 AV/105 AV/100 FR/108 Matt Downs AV/133 FR/134 FR/126 AV/111 AV/126 Jason Bourgeois PO/119 VG/131 AV/221 AV/110 Chris Johnson AV/150 Nick Stavinoha AV/131 FR/92 FR/115 Andrew Locke AV/158 AV/116 AV/181 Brian Bogusevic AV/123 AV/111 FR/45 AV/106 Jimmy Paredes AV/234 AV/130 FR/139 Marwin Gonzalez AV/108 AV/139 AV/124 FR/207 AV/96 FR/158 J.B. Shuck VG/114 FR/126 VG/113 Jacob Goebbert AV/162 FR/162 Joe Inglett AV/148 AV/122 FR/121 AV/127 AV/141 James van Ostrand AV/168 FR/116 FR/107 Jason Castro VG Angel Sanchez AV/101 FR/111 Jordan Schafer VG/107 AV/54 VG/112 Collin DeLome VG/177 FR/119 AV/113 Koby Clemens FR FR/131 FR/186 FR/106 Jon Gaston AV/128 FR/112 AV/128 Anderson Hernandez AV/114 AV/118 FR/117 David Flores AV/120 AV/160 Wladimir Sutil VG/131 VG/115 AV/138 AV/114 Carlos Corporan AV Oswaldo Navarro AV/143 AV/109 AV/119 Jonathan Villar VG/252 Humberto Quintero VG Brandon Barnes VG/139 AV/172 AV/162 Robinson Cancel VG Jiovanni Mier VG/179 Craig Tatum VG Jose Vallejo AV/162 AV/118 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Wandy Rodriguez L 33 3.89 11 10 29 29 180.3 174 78 21 61 156 100 Bud Norris R 27 3.93 8 8 30 30 181.0 170 79 22 67 173 99 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Brett Myers R 31 4.26 8 9 28 26 169.0 171 80 22 48 128 92 J.A. Happ L 29 4.64 7 9 27 24 139.7 138 72 18 69 113 84 Jordan Lyles R 21 4.78 7 10 29 25 150.7 169 80 17 45 105 82 Brett Oberholtzer L 22 4.90 8 12 26 25 136.0 156 74 15 47 90 80 Dallas Keuchel L 24 5.01 7 11 26 26 152.7 180 85 17 45 80 78 Lucas Harrell R 27 5.05 7 11 28 24 132.0 147 74 12 67 77 77 Andy Van Hekken L 32 5.12 5 9 30 18 123.0 149 70 12 43 74 76 Kyle Weiland R 25 5.27 6 11 27 26 124.7 137 73 16 67 90 74 Jarred Cosart R 22 5.32 6 11 22 22 106.7 118 63 13 55 69 73 Paul Clemens R 24 5.38 4 7 28 18 110.3 124 66 15 58 81 73 Henry Sosa R 26 5.48 5 10 31 16 106.7 122 65 15 50 71 71 Ryan Rowland-SmithL 29 5.97 4 10 25 22 119.0 148 79 22 40 71 65 Sergio Perez R 27 6.12 4 10 22 21 107.3 136 73 15 53 56 64 Ross Seaton R 22 6.40 4 11 27 27 136.3 179 97 21 54 67 61 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Wilton Lopez R 28 3.67 4 3 71 0 68.7 68 28 7 15 53 106 Fernando RodriguezR 28 3.93 5 5 62 0 75.7 66 33 9 41 88 99 Wesley Wright L 27 4.04 3 4 66 0 64.7 60 29 7 30 59 97 Juan Abreu R 27 4.10 3 4 56 0 63.7 55 29 8 39 77 95 Brandon Lyon R 32 4.13 4 5 46 0 48.0 47 22 5 18 34 95 Samuel Gervacio R 27 4.40 2 2 39 0 43.0 40 21 6 19 40 89 Sergio Escalona L 27 4.42 3 4 60 0 53.0 52 26 6 24 45 88 Enerio Del RosarioR 26 4.59 2 3 58 0 66.7 72 34 6 25 37 85 David Carpenter R 26 4.72 3 4 62 0 61.0 63 32 7 31 53 83 Fernando Abad L 26 4.76 4 6 49 2 64.3 70 34 10 16 50 82 Aneury Rodriguez R 24 4.80 4 5 37 12 95.7 96 51 12 43 72 81 Jorge De Leon R 24 4.95 3 5 38 0 43.7 48 24 5 18 29 79 Arcenio Leon R 25 5.61 2 4 47 0 67.3 73 42 6 52 54 70 Henry Villar R 25 5.71 3 6 41 7 82.0 96 52 13 36 51 68 Rhiner Cruz R 25 6.18 2 5 49 0 62.7 65 43 9 59 48 63 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Carlos Lee .282 .333 .476 2429 9283 1269 2616 539 25 405 1568 709 1104 134 111 Chris Johnson .257 .295 .402 1152 4175 451 1074 231 27 107 528 196 995 26 89 Brett Wallace .253 .317 .392 1185 4064 466 1027 210 8 114 463 308 1020 9 93 Jed Lowrie .248 .310 .397 1023 3366 396 834 200 28 82 417 320 589 12 90 Jason Bourgeois .267 .305 .340 625 1733 216 462 58 15 13 123 92 193 127 76 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Brett Myers 135 135 21 4.34 457 389 2526 2575 1218 359 803 1997 95 Wandy Rodriguez 122 128 0 4.22 347 338 2026 2026 950 242 726 1702 96 J.A. Happ 55 65 0 4.42 207 177 1054 1009 518 137 513 857 90 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Carlos Lee LF 8% 20% 19% 24% 29% Ernie Banks Tino Martinez Del Ennis J.D. Martinez LF 4% 19% 22% 27% 29% Delmon Young Carlos Lee Joe Vosmik Jose Altuve 2B 16% 14% 18% 24% 29% Steve Sax Edgar Renteria Joseph Thurston Brett Wallace 1B 5% 7% 8% 24% 56% Ever Magallanes Ray Olmedo Chris Barnwell Jed Lowrie SS 21% 25% 29% 17% 7% Ivanon Coffie Kevin Orie Mendy Lopez Matt Downs 2B 15% 17% 20% 24% 25% Matt Craig Ivanon Coffie Jeffrey Baisley Jason Bourgeois CF 6% 9% 21% 31% 33% Doug Glanville Norris Hopper Brandon Watson Chris Johnson 3B 2% 7% 15% 26% 50% Jose Leon Brook Jacoby Jose Castillo Nick Stavinoha 1B 1% 3% 5% 23% 68% Mike Bell Guillermo Garcia Tommy Davis Andrew Locke RF 0% 1% 3% 11% 85% Caleb Stewart Keith Williams Robby Hammock Brian Bogusevic RF 0% 2% 4% 12% 81% Colin Porter Paul Hertzler Jason Maas Jimmy Paredes 3B 1% 3% 6% 16% 73% Bob Meacham Shawon Dunston Kenny Williams Marwin Gonzalez SS 2% 6% 18% 30% 45% Hal Lanier Luis Ojeda Tom Foley J.B. Shuck LF 0% 1% 2% 6% 92% Evan Frey Steve Stanley Tommy Gregg Jacob Goebbert RF 0% 1% 2% 7% 89% Pedro Valdes Orlando Isales Angelo Cuevas Joe Inglett 2B 3% 4% 8% 20% 66% Dave Matranga Miguel Cairo Don Blasingame James van Ostrand 1B 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% Mike Eylward Aaron Bates Glenn Carpenter Jason Castro C 2% 5% 9% 26% 59% Matt Treanor Trey Lunsford Andy Skeels Angel Sanchez SS 0% 3% 11% 26% 60% Ever Magallanes Ray Olmedo Chris Barnwell Jordan Schafer CF 1% 1% 4% 10% 84% Maiko Loyola Roger Bernadina Gary Cathcart Collin DeLome CF 1% 1% 4% 14% 81% Jayson Bass Jon VanEvery Jason Robertson Koby Clemens 1B 1% 1% 2% 6% 90% Marlon Anderson Miguel Cairo Don Blasingame Jon Gaston RF 1% 1% 1% 3% 95% Jason Robertson Fletcher Bates Brad Snyder Anderson Hernandez2B 0% 1% 1% 5% 93% Joey Aragon Doug Baker Gary Miller-Jones David Flores 3B 0% 1% 2% 4% 92% Scott White Ryan Stegall Nate Manning Wladimir Sutil SS 0% 1% 4% 14% 82% Matt DeMarco Benjamin Perez Kevin Polcovich Carlos Corporan C 1% 2% 4% 15% 78% Jason Brown Tom Nieto Jim Horner Oswaldo Navarro 3B 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Keith Johns Tom Hayes Jason Camilli Jonathan Villar SS 4% 3% 6% 10% 77% Pat Listach Buddy Biancalana Scott Bream Humberto Quintero C 0% 0% 2% 9% 89% Frank Charles Charlie Greene Chris Ashby Brandon Barnes CF 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% Hipolito Martinez Derrick Bly Jamie Sykes Robinson Cancel C 0% 1% 3% 9% 87% Pat Borders Joe Oliver Frank Charles Jiovanni Mier SS 0% 1% 3% 9% 86% Ken Jackson Josh McKinley Matt Tuiasosopo Craig Tatum C 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% Chris Tremie Joe Hietpas Bill Dobrolsky Jose Vallejo 2B 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% Rex Rundgren Josh Reding Bobby Falls Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Wilton Lopez RP 22% 55% 22% Jeff Tam Mike Burns Joseph Haines Wandy Rodriguez SP 29% 56% 16% Denny Neagle Floyd Bannister Frank Tanana Fernando RodriguezRP 15% 50% 35% Mark Clear Brad Lidge Jack Meyer Bud Norris SP 27% 58% 15% Ian Snell John Maine Ken Dixon Wesley Wright RP 10% 43% 48% Armando Almanza Gene Walter Kevin Lovingier Juan Abreu RP 11% 43% 46% Allan Simpson Ryan Bukvich Bart Miadich Brandon Lyon RP 12% 34% 54% Bryan Corey Kirk Bullinger Terry Leach Brett Myers SP 9% 54% 37% Jeff Weaver Brett Tomko Steve Trachsel Samuel Gervacio RP 8% 34% 57% Steve Andrade Scott Gentile Brian Bruney Sergio Escalona RP 8% 37% 55% David Rosario Ricardo Jordan Kevin Walker Enerio Del RosarioRP 5% 28% 67% Scott Rose Scott Munter Joe Davenport J.A. Happ SP 5% 32% 63% Joel Hanrahan Rich Robertson Ken Kravec David Carpenter RP 3% 21% 77% Ryan Houston Mike Shade Roy Corcoran Fernando Abad RP 3% 23% 74% Roberto Rivera Chris Key Erasmo Ramirez Jordan Lyles SP 2% 33% 65% Clay Parker Esteban Loaiza Chris Holt Aneury Rodriguez RP 1% 16% 83% Jesus Colome Butch Edge Chris Dunwell Brett Oberholtzer SP 1% 24% 75% Brad Halsey Jeff Mutis Jeff Johnson Jorge De Leon RP 4% 24% 72% Mark Hutton Scott Rose Jose Santiago Dallas Keuchel SP 2% 18% 80% Bobby Livingston Andy Van Hekken Brad Halsey Lucas Harrell SP 2% 20% 78% Tim Byron Jeff Fulchino Brett Laxton Andy Van Hekken SP 3% 19% 79% Andrew Lorraine John Halama Randy Keisler Kyle Weiland SP 0% 10% 89% Kevin Ritz Sean Bergman Roy North Jarred Cosart SP 0% 11% 89% Jeff Fulchino Ben Hendrickson Preston Larrison Paul Clemens SP 0% 8% 91% Travis Hughes Jorge Cordova Edwin Jackson Henry Sosa SP 0% 7% 93% Steven Jackson Scott Rivette Steve Watkins Arcenio Leon RP 0% 4% 95% Ryan Henderson Heathcliff Slocumb Chris Clark Henry Villar RP 0% 2% 98% Pedro Guzman Brian Slocum Chris Wright Ryan Rowland-SmithSP 0% 2% 98% Scott Downs Michael Bacsik Dave Gassner Sergio Perez SP 0% 1% 99% Ben Fritz Lee Rodney Mickey Callaway Rhiner Cruz RP 0% 1% 99% Edwardo Sierra Franklin Morales Agustin Montero Ross Seaton SP 0% 0% 100% Matt Childers Luis Mendoza David Pauley Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Carlos Lee 13% 3% 10% 3% 1% 6% 3% 0% J.D. Martinez 18% 5% 1% 11% 1% 1% 1% 0% Jose Altuve 37% 3% 2% 4% 24% 1% 1% 59% Brett Wallace 6% 4% 7% 1% 0% 6% 4% 0% Jed Lowrie 4% 3% 4% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Matt Downs 5% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jason Bourgeois 15% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 40% Chris Johnson 3% 0% 2% 1% 4% 1% 0% 0% Nick Stavinoha 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Andrew Locke 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Brian Bogusevic 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% Jimmy Paredes 2% 0% 2% 7% 29% 1% 0% 68% Marwin Gonzalez 4% 0% 0% 1% 5% 0% 0% 1% J.B. Shuck 3% 3% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 4% Jacob Goebbert 1% 0% 0% 2% 5% 0% 0% 0% Joe Inglett 8% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% James van Ostrand 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jason Castro 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Angel Sanchez 3% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Jordan Schafer 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 6% Collin DeLome 0% 0% 1% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% Koby Clemens 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 3% 1% 0% Jon Gaston 0% 0% 1% 0% 29% 1% 0% 0% Anderson Hernandez 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% David Flores 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Wladimir Sutil 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% Carlos Corporan 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Oswaldo Navarro 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jonathan Villar 0% 0% 4% 1% 20% 5% 2% 63% Humberto Quintero 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brandon Barnes 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% Robinson Cancel 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Jiovanni Mier 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% Craig Tatum 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jose Vallejo 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Wilton Lopez 17% 66% 13% 53% 79% Wandy Rodriguez 5% 53% 39% 2% 52% Fernando Rodriguez 11% 58% 98% 0% 51% Bud Norris 4% 55% 71% 0% 40% Wesley Wright 6% 45% 59% 0% 56% Juan Abreu 8% 39% 99% 0% 43% Brandon Lyon 12% 38% 5% 5% 66% Brett Myers 2% 26% 7% 14% 31% Samuel Gervacio 8% 34% 56% 2% 51% Sergio Escalona 5% 37% 33% 1% 60% Enerio Del Rosario 3% 27% 0% 4% 69% J.A. Happ 1% 12% 20% 0% 41% David Carpenter 2% 18% 41% 0% 59% Fernando Abad 2% 20% 13% 36% 27% Jordan Lyles 0% 8% 1% 8% 54% Aneury Rodriguez 0% 10% 8% 0% 43% Brett Oberholtzer 0% 5% 0% 1% 58% Jorge De Leon 2% 21% 3% 3% 62% Dallas Keuchel 1% 5% 0% 9% 58% Lucas Harrell 0% 5% 0% 0% 79% Andy Van Hekken 0% 8% 2% 5% 73% Kyle Weiland 0% 2% 3% 0% 39% Jarred Cosart 0% 2% 0% 0% 47% Paul Clemens 0% 2% 3% 0% 33% Henry Sosa 0% 1% 1% 0% 29% Arcenio Leon 0% 3% 17% 0% 71% Henry Villar 0% 1% 0% 0% 21% Ryan Rowland-Smith 0% 0% 0% 5% 5% Sergio Perez 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% Rhiner Cruz 0% 1% 11% 0% 36% Ross Seaton 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 19, 2011 at 06:34 PM | 54 comment(s)
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1. BobbyS Posted: December 19, 2011 at 06:47 PM (#4019409)Every time I read projections like these, I'm amazed at how far Brett Wallace's value has dropped. I remember when he was drafted and the book on him was that he would hit. Now it looks like he's more of a league-average bat with no other secondary skills.
1 Brett Gardner 34
2 Carlos Lee 21
3 Mike Stanton 20
4 Kosuke Fukudome 19
5 Chris Young 18
6 Rick Ankiel 17
7 Chris Denorfia 15
8 Denard Span 14
9 Carlos Gomez 14
10 Michael Bourn 13
11 Peter Bourjos 13
FWIW Fangraphs also has Lee as a plus defender in 2011
Is that even physically possible?
I'd have to guess he got a skewed distribution of chances. Lot's of easy plays that look hard when zoned, either b/c of location, velocity (difference btw a fly/fliner/liner) or his slowness made easy plays look harder.
What order are we going in anyway?
Reverse of last year, I believe.
It looks like 2010 payroll descending.
He was teammates with Ike Davis for 3 years
He outhit Ike EVERY single year- his WORST year had him OPS higher than Ike's college career, Brett's college OPS was 1197, Ike's was 1015- same team same years
Ike was a 1B, Brett was a 3B...
Brett was drafted 13th overall, Ike 18th (And a recall hearing that was a reach)
Brett hit .337/.427/.530 his first pro season at age 21- between the midwest league and AA
Ike hit .256/.326/.326 his first pro season at age 21- in the New York Penn league
Ike reached #62 on BA's prospect list, Brett #27
and now Ike projects to 113, and Brett 97.
Basically after that age 21 year Ike has outplayed Brett in very possible way (except in staying healthy)
How does that happen?
1: Defense/Athleticism, Ike was always a better athlete/fielder- Brett played 3B when Ike played 1B simply because Ike throws left and hence CAN'T play any other IF position*- but in truth he always had better hands, better range than Wallace- who was never going to play 3B in the majors
2: Hitting: I think before age 22, Wallace really was a better hitter, and this is simply a case where Ike improved through ages 22 and 23 and Wallace basically didn't - I don't think there is anyway to predict/project that reliably.
*There were times back in the 1980s, where if the Mets had Keith Hernandez play 3rd, he would have played it better than whoever Davey Johnson was running out there... Ike is not THAT good, but he's got a clear defensive tool separation advantage on Wallace...
Probably a red flag that he was dealt three times before he even reached the big leagues. It was a game of Hot Potato, and Ed Wade lost.
Wow, his minor league numbers say so. .389 / .426 / .591 in 391 PA, with 24 steals and only 40 strikeouts. And only 60% of that was with the Lancaster JetHawks!
Not when you add in defense.
That second baseman is easy to root for - he's 5-5 which caused him not to make a lot of prospect lists going into last season.
Request for Brian Bixler, please.
Ahh yes, the Andy Marte Rule.
Where are you seeing the 2 position players? Altuve, if his D is avg or better, and you ignore his height, and...
Jed "Glassman" Lowrie?
Calling this team horrific is an insult to horrific teams. They were horrific when they had Pence and Bourn. No it's a freak show.
Edit: Coke to Der K 2
1) Would a major league manager really allow him to go 33/21 in SB/CS?
2) He hit .389 in A+/AA in 391 PA as 21yo last year, with 26/40 K/BB ratio. What are the odds that he really takes a leap forward this year? Or does the 5/29 K/BB ratio in the majors just out weight all those minor league numbers?
If the Astros trade Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers for prospects, the rotation will be really ugly.
1) Would a major league manager really allow him to go 33/21 in SB/CS?
2) He hit .389 in A+/AA in 391 PA as 21yo last year, with 26/40 K/BB ratio. What are the odds that he really takes a leap forward this year? Or does the 5/29 K/BB ratio in the majors just out weight all those minor league numbers?
I think if you're playing in MLB at 5'5", you're going to have to show you can do some damage to a fastball down the middle of the plate before you start getting walks.
He needs to generate at least 7-10 HR/triples, and 20 or so doubles to keep them honest. If the .060 ISO from last year persists, he's not going to make it.
2009 projection: 275/333/424
Rest of Year 2009 (after trade): 264/323/392
2010 projection: 246/314/385
2011 projection: 261/324/414
ZiPS never really saw Wallace becoming a good hitter at a position he could play and so far, it hasn't been wrong.
I think they'd have to get rid of Wandy and Myers (otherwise the SP is too cromulent), but that should be coming soon.
3 years in AAA, not once did he reach league average, 1410 AAA PAs, and I'm guessing his mles work out to a 60-70 OPS+
against that you have 213 MLB PAs at a 111 OPS+ (most during his age 27 season), it may have helped a little that he was literally never allowed to bat against lefties...
The most obvious comparison is the 2003 Tigers.
The 2002 Tigers went 55-106. Then they got rid of their 2002 All-Star (Robert Fick, of all people) thinking that Dmitri Young could play left field and Dean Palmer was healthy enough to DH every day. They got rid of recent All-Star Damion Easley and replaced him with recent near-ROY Warren Morris. They gave the exciting prospect Eric Munson the 3B job and the not-even-close-to-ready Omar Infante the SS job. They got rid of their #1 starter (Mark Redman), after already trading their other two proven starters (Jeff Weaver and Brian Moehler) mid-season.
The starting rotation (Maroth, Bonderman, Cornejo, Bernero, Knotts) had a total of 56 career starts as of Opening Day, and only Bonderman and Cornejo were any sort of prospect.
And they did take a run at the 1962 Mets.
The Astros lineup looks a lot like that Tigers ilneup, with Carlos Lee playing the role of Dmitri Young, and no obvious Bobby Higginson in sight. But the rotation, that's a little better.
Let the J.A. Happ 20-loss watch commence!
Bogusevic's career path in the minors isn't exactly normal. That might change some of the interpretation--or maybe not. Bogusevic was picked in the first round as a pitcher and worked his way up to AA as a starting pitcher. The Astros then changed his position to outfield, and his first couple of minor league seasons had to be a big transition, since he hadn't batted as a position player since he was in college. The Astros pushed him to AAA rather quickly because of his late age. If his performance is based on the typical 27 year old minor league outfielder, that may not fit, since his late age for AAA is due to the career change. I would like to see Bogusevic succeed at least as a platoon RFer because it's fun to watch him throw out runners.
Bixler was removed from the 40 man roster when the Astros traded for Lowrie.
You must have a different definition of "exciting prospect" than me, while formerly a first round pick he'd already dropped off of BA's lists 2 year before, I think it was more the 2003 Tigers saying, oh well we have some guys at Toledo who are not terrible, Munson, Monroe, Infante, lets pay them league minimum and throw them against the wall, we're gonna loss 100 again anyway...
boe-guh-SEV-ic
I'm pretty surprised that Altuve projects so well, given that his minor-league numbers were mostly in high-octane environments and relied in decent part on sky-high BABIPs. I'm also surprised that Wandy projects so poorly, considering that he's been at least 0.29 below that ERA in each of the last four seasons. I suppose it's a combination of age and a concerning FIP last season.
Or some reliever lucks into 25 innings of goodness or Wandy is Wandy.
The 2002 lineup was absolutely awful before Crawford was called up in mid-July, but it did include Randy Winn. On the occasions that Winn didn't start, it was
C Toby Hall or John Flaherty
1B Steve Cox
2B Brent Abernathy
3B Jared Sandberg or Russ Johnson
SS Chris Gomez
LF Jason Tyner
CF Jason Conti
RF Ben Grieve
DH Greg Vaughn
Still an Astro, though - outrighted to AAA.
wandy rodriguez is not gonna be on the team - he WILl be traded, and i know that luhnow/crane are doing their best to dump myers and carlos lee, too
IPOR signed with the Pirates today.
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