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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Saturday, December 10, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles DodgersWithin last year’s projections, I described the 2010 season as a disappointing year that was more “bland mediocrity than explosive failure.” That’s the same kind of season the Dodgers had in 2011, a kind of bland mediocrity with a notably bright pinnacle, like seeing Ron Swanson backstage after a Nickelback concert. That pinnacle, of course, being Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw and the real NL MVP, Matt Kemp, who, at in bWAR, made up half the value of the entire team in 2011. Of course, no matter how dismal the Dodgers are outside of a couple of players, at least the long regional nightmare, Frank McCourt, is finally going to be sent drifting out to see to slowly perish on an ice floe, presuming California voters manage to get enough signatures to get that onto the next ballot.
The Dodger strategy of lousiness anchored onto the big stars is about to be double-downed, with Hiroki Kuroda, who provided another 10% of the team’s value in 2011, sent away, and Ned Colletti trying to assemble a team that’s going to have an awesome 2005-2007. Aaron Harang! Chris Capuano! Jerry Hairston! Matt Treanor! Mark Ellis! Adam Kennedy! Juan Rivera! While Mark Ellis is still very good defensively and Jerry Hairston is really a dynamite role player (and Matt Treanor was never good), that’s $43 million over 2 years to pile on complementary pieces for a team that’s missing a lot of big ones. Yeah, the long-term contract to Kemp is one I feel very wise, but Ned Colletti still doesn’t appear to get why the team wasn’t very good in 2011. And now, with more flotsam attached to the power generators, the Dodgers kinda look like one of those living room plugs where a foolish person has plugged in 23 appliances into matryoshka-dolled surge protectors that will eventually lead to a fire that will dwarf that of Brünnhilde’s immolation.
Dodgers will finish somewhere between 75 and 83 wins and remain unsure as to why.
Next Up: St. Louis Cardinals
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Matt Kemp R CF 27 .280 .348 .503 156 586 101 164 28 5 31 104 61 155 32 12 130 Andre Ethier L RF 30 .275 .355 .447 139 512 76 141 30 2 18 77 61 103 3 2 119 James Loney L 1B 28 .277 .334 .407 156 553 65 153 32 2 12 80 48 74 7 2 102 Juan Rivera R LF 33 .265 .318 .408 121 426 46 113 20 1 13 61 33 57 3 2 98 Jerry Sands R 1B 24 .235 .308 .415 132 494 62 116 26 3 19 61 50 142 7 3 96 Scott Van Slyke R LF 25 .248 .307 .408 143 524 57 130 31 4 15 62 44 140 6 5 94 Angelo Songco L LF 23 .248 .297 .411 155 609 83 151 35 5 18 70 39 139 4 2 92 Trent Oeltjen L RF 29 .245 .306 .386 131 412 49 101 22 6 8 40 32 112 15 5 88 Marcus Thames R LF 35 .239 .294 .429 68 184 18 44 6 1 9 24 14 51 0 1 95 Juan Uribe R 3B 32 .249 .300 .401 110 374 41 93 20 2 11 51 25 75 2 1 90 Tony Gwynn L LF 29 .258 .319 .350 137 380 52 98 14 6 3 27 34 64 20 6 84 Jerry Hairston R SS 36 .259 .319 .373 112 351 48 91 18 2 6 37 27 47 6 4 89 Ivan DeJesus R 2B 25 .260 .321 .353 143 553 62 144 24 3 7 50 46 108 7 1 85 Dee Gordon L SS 24 .271 .310 .339 151 631 86 171 18 11 1 34 32 107 55 19 78 Adam Kennedy L 2B 36 .258 .307 .362 119 392 45 101 21 1 6 42 26 58 11 3 83 Alex Castellanos R RF 25 .239 .292 .389 130 489 54 117 28 6 11 40 28 151 12 5 85 Blake Smith L RF 24 .230 .288 .406 117 461 52 106 25 1 18 51 36 149 2 3 88 Brian Cavazos-GalvR 1B 25 .255 .279 .402 142 537 64 137 30 5 13 57 10 92 20 13 84 Jay Gibbons L RF 35 .246 .298 .369 95 317 24 78 13 1 8 28 24 58 0 0 82 Mark Ellis R 2B 35 .253 .303 .350 120 434 47 110 22 1 6 43 27 62 11 4 79 John Lindsey R 1B 35 .230 .296 .372 102 352 30 81 18 1 10 39 23 94 0 0 82 A.J. Ellis R C 31 .240 .356 .317 87 271 23 65 11 2 2 24 44 48 0 2 87 Alfredo Silverio R CF 25 .250 .274 .406 140 557 69 139 31 10 12 52 20 122 8 8 84 Gorman Erickson B C 24 .234 .302 .354 113 401 41 94 21 3 7 44 38 82 3 1 79 Jamie Hoffmann R CF 27 .238 .296 .353 143 529 53 126 23 4 10 48 40 123 13 5 77 Jake Lemmerman R SS 23 .239 .303 .344 146 590 76 141 28 2 10 56 45 148 8 3 77 Justin Sellers R SS 26 .232 .308 .349 135 456 54 106 23 3 8 42 46 102 6 4 80 Casey Blake R 3B 38 .234 .305 .360 90 308 39 72 16 1 7 39 29 85 1 3 82 Dioner Navarro B C 28 .235 .314 .327 79 226 21 53 10 1 3 25 25 40 1 0 76 Russ Mitchell R 3B 27 .231 .289 .366 140 506 54 117 25 2 13 51 39 109 2 2 78 Tim Federowicz R C 24 .236 .289 .345 133 504 37 119 28 0 9 43 36 115 2 0 73 Aaron Miles B 2B 35 .260 .297 .328 111 323 36 84 12 2 2 29 16 37 2 2 71 Eugenio Velez B 2B 30 .251 .290 .348 113 374 44 94 16 4 4 34 19 72 17 12 74 Damaso Espino R C 29 .244 .285 .301 74 246 18 60 6 1 2 18 14 34 0 0 61 Matt Treanor R C 36 .220 .312 .301 60 173 17 38 5 0 3 9 20 41 1 2 69 Ivan Ochoa R SS 29 .226 .287 .296 100 314 34 71 12 2 2 20 23 67 8 4 60 Corey Smith R 3B 30 .215 .253 .327 132 480 43 103 20 2 10 45 23 139 7 3 58 Juan Castro R 2B 40 .225 .263 .282 29 71 4 16 2 1 0 3 4 15 0 0 50 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Matt Kemp AV/90 AV/72 Andre Ethier FR/71 James Loney AV/71 Juan Rivera AV/106 AV/92 FR/92 Jerry Sands AV/137 PO/138 AV/113 PO/115 AV/92 Scott Van Slyke AV/144 AV/122 AV/122 Angelo Songco FR/119 PO/127 Trent Oeltjen AV/99 PO/123 AV/105 Marcus Thames PO/108 PO/115 Juan Uribe VG/79 VG/88 AV/70 Tony Gwynn EX/84 VG/100 VG/107 Jerry Hairston AV/96 AV/111 AV/92 VG/106 FR/92 VG/101 Ivan DeJesus AV/106 AV/116 AV/122 Dee Gordon AV/156 Adam Kennedy AV/105 AV/106 AV/104 Alex Castellanos AV/118 PO/113 PO/127 VG/153 FR/134 AV/153 Blake Smith AV/133 Brian Cavazos-Galvez AV/150 FR/104 PO/132 FR/104 Jay Gibbons FR/101 PO/93 PO/123 Mark Ellis VG/117 VG/54 John Lindsey FR/120 PO/106 A.J. Ellis VG Alfredo Silverio AV/91 FR/173 AV/90 Gorman Erickson AV Jamie Hoffmann AV/114 FR/40 AV/114 Jake Lemmerman AV/144 Justin Sellers AV/111 AV/98 AV/110 AV/114 Dioner Navarro AV AV/119 Casey Blake AV/86 AV/81 Russ Mitchell AV/117 FR/105 AV/82 AV/94 FR/90 Tim Federowicz VG Aaron Miles AV/77 FR/116 PO/107 Eugenio Velez FR/136 AV/117 PO/119 VG/146 AV/138 AV/143 Damaso Espino VG FR/100 PO/128 Matt Treanor AV Ivan Ochoa VG/110 AV/121 Corey Smith FR/167 PO/134 Juan Castro AV/122 AV/99 PO/93 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Clayton Kershaw L 24 2.54 18 8 34 34 226.3 178 64 16 64 240 148 Hiroki Kuroda R 37 3.70 11 10 26 26 160.3 157 66 17 39 120 102 Ted Lilly L 36 3.73 11 10 27 27 166.7 152 69 24 40 137 101 Chad Billingsley R 27 3.74 12 10 32 31 190.0 177 79 14 77 165 101 Vicente Padilla R 34 3.88 4 4 17 13 69.7 65 30 8 22 53 97 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Rubby De La Rosa R 23 3.96 6 6 22 17 104.7 96 46 10 51 93 95 Jon Garland R 32 4.17 7 8 20 20 121.0 122 56 13 41 70 91 Chris Capuano L 33 4.26 8 9 29 22 137.3 138 65 19 37 113 89 Nathan Eovaldi R 22 4.30 6 7 26 22 119.3 119 57 9 62 83 88 Aaron Harang R 34 4.31 8 9 22 22 133.7 141 64 16 40 96 88 John Ely R 26 4.56 7 9 27 25 146.0 153 74 17 52 98 83 Allen Webster R 22 4.95 7 11 26 24 129.0 141 71 13 62 86 76 Mike Parisi R 29 4.98 2 3 7 7 34.3 36 19 4 18 21 76 Chris Withrow R 23 5.33 4 8 25 25 120.0 127 71 14 77 95 71 Stephen Fife R 25 5.35 5 9 24 23 116.0 140 69 14 49 60 71 Ian Snell R 30 5.40 3 6 16 15 78.3 84 47 12 42 54 70 Michael Antonini L 26 5.70 5 11 26 25 132.7 163 84 23 42 84 66 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Kenley Jansen R 24 2.29 4 1 57 0 63.0 39 16 5 31 98 165 Hong-Chih Kuo L 30 3.38 2 2 47 0 40.0 31 15 3 19 47 112 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Josh Lindblom R 25 3.54 3 2 60 0 68.7 62 27 6 25 62 107 Javy Guerra R 26 3.57 3 2 64 0 63.0 57 25 6 24 53 106 Scott Elbert L 26 3.59 2 2 53 0 47.7 40 19 4 25 51 105 Matt Guerrier R 33 3.66 4 3 69 0 64.0 58 26 6 21 47 103 Steven Ames R 24 3.67 2 2 45 0 49.0 45 20 5 16 50 103 Ronald Belisario R 29 4.04 2 2 50 0 49.0 46 22 5 21 38 93 Jon Link R 28 4.18 2 2 52 1 64.7 62 30 6 31 53 90 Blake Hawksworth R 29 4.19 5 5 47 7 77.3 77 36 9 26 54 90 Mike MacDougal R 35 4.29 2 2 54 0 50.3 50 24 4 26 34 88 Roman Colon R 32 4.41 2 2 28 0 32.7 33 16 4 12 21 86 Travis SchlichtingR 27 4.50 2 3 43 0 60.0 60 30 6 28 40 84 Ramon Troncoso R 29 4.72 3 4 58 0 74.3 79 39 9 30 49 80 Wilkin De La Rosa L 27 5.76 2 5 26 7 54.7 60 35 7 38 37 66 Josh Wall R 25 6.04 4 8 36 12 92.3 111 62 13 54 56 62 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Matt Kemp .276 .336 .469 2421 9070 1414 2500 421 80 390 1428 821 2154 382 116 Andre Ethier .277 .350 .446 1826 6583 900 1825 398 31 216 939 706 1177 35 113 Adam Kennedy .270 .322 .380 1887 6241 763 1682 330 44 90 652 433 936 201 86 James Loney .277 .335 .408 1714 6045 690 1677 337 33 129 872 527 772 69 100 Casey Blake .260 .332 .432 1429 5063 714 1316 293 20 179 686 494 1186 37 102 Juan Rivera .272 .321 .432 1337 4533 535 1232 230 7 160 678 331 580 25 99 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Clayton Kershaw 205 122 9 2.84 486 410 2878 2131 908 209 809 2850 133 Chad Billingsley 179 150 0 3.79 485 454 2774 2598 1167 216 1172 2426 103 Ted Lilly 174 161 0 4.16 473 448 2690 2515 1242 409 830 2250 102 Jon Garland 170 162 1 4.32 465 442 2757 2866 1323 333 938 1506 100 Aaron Harang 123 131 0 4.34 356 349 2145 2289 1033 286 631 1699 97 Hiroki Kuroda 83 86 0 3.68 215 213 1305 1278 534 133 312 963 105 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Matt Kemp CF 77% 13% 7% 2% 0% Duke Snider Ben Chapman Amos Otis Andre Ethier RF 24% 33% 19% 15% 9% Lyle Overbay Harold Baines Paul O’Neill James Loney 1B 3% 14% 19% 36% 28% Sean Casey Bruce Bochte Broderick Perkins Juan Rivera LF 2% 8% 14% 26% 51% Ramon Hernandez Glenn Wilson Willie Montanez Jerry Sands 1B 1% 9% 14% 32% 44% Mike Hocutt Jody Lansford Jesse Barfield Scott Van Slyke LF 1% 6% 11% 23% 60% Jeff Baker Jeff Conine Brandon Moss Angelo Songco LF 2% 7% 10% 19% 62% Randy Byers Josh Kroeger John Mayberry Trent Oeltjen RF 1% 6% 11% 22% 60% Brant Brown Michael Tucker Keith Hughes Marcus Thames LF 2% 6% 8% 18% 67% Eddie Williams Alan Cockrell Willie Horton Juan Uribe 3B 2% 8% 15% 27% 48% Earl Snyder Jason Wood Ricky Jones Tony Gwynn LF 2% 5% 7% 16% 71% Cory Sullivan Bruce Dostal Greg Tubbs Jerry Hairston SS 9% 15% 27% 28% 20% Billy Cox Mike Bordick Tony Graffanino Ivan DeJesus 2B 5% 7% 13% 26% 49% Todd Haney Ron Oester Neil Fiala Dee Gordon SS 7% 16% 29% 26% 23% Garry Templeton Sonny Jackson Jeff Stone Adam Kennedy 2B 7% 8% 14% 25% 46% Jim Gantner Eddie Mayo Scott Fletcher Alex Castellanos RF 0% 3% 6% 15% 75% Darrell Miller Sammy Sosa Scott Krause Blake Smith RF 1% 4% 6% 15% 74% Steve Dunn Eric Anthony Chito Martinez Brian Cavazos-Galv1B 0% 1% 2% 13% 84% Steve Pegues Hector Roa Carlos Ponce Jay Gibbons RF 1% 2% 3% 9% 86% Glenn Adams Dann Howitt Emil Brown Mark Ellis 2B 3% 5% 8% 19% 64% Pete Suder Billy Martin Jeff Cirillo John Lindsey 1B 0% 1% 3% 13% 82% Alan Cockrell Willie Horton Craig Paquette A.J. Ellis C 2% 13% 21% 34% 30% Toby Atwell J.D. Closser Joe Astroth Alfredo Silverio CF 1% 3% 10% 25% 61% Tyler Colvin Jason Repko Kenny Kelly Gorman Erickson C 3% 10% 16% 31% 40% Matt Curtis Chad Kreuter Gregg Zaun Jamie Hoffmann CF 0% 2% 9% 24% 64% Adam Shabala Rikkert Faneyte T.J. Bohn Jake Lemmerman SS 2% 5% 17% 30% 45% Ross Jones Daniel Mayora Jhonny Peralta Justin Sellers SS 3% 7% 19% 31% 40% Tony Schrager Mike Neal Josh Labandeira Casey Blake 3B 1% 3% 7% 14% 75% Charlie Hayes Tony Graffanino Shawn Gilbert Dioner Navarro C 2% 8% 15% 32% 44% Alan Ashby Chris Tremie Bill Dobrolsky Russ Mitchell 3B 1% 3% 6% 14% 76% Seth Johnston Tim Gillis Jason Wood Tim Federowicz C 2% 5% 9% 27% 58% Wyatt Toregas Robert Machado Pete Beeler Aaron Miles 2B 0% 1% 2% 7% 91% Pete Suder Jose Vizcaino Edgar Caceres Eugenio Velez 2B 1% 1% 3% 9% 86% Aaron Holbert Bo Hart Kevin Davis Damaso Espino C 0% 0% 1% 7% 92% Hector Ortiz Pedro Grifol Chris Tremie Matt Treanor C 1% 3% 6% 17% 74% Rick Ferrell Brad Ausmus Rick Cerone Ivan Ochoa SS 0% 0% 3% 9% 88% Brandon Chaves Ray Holbert Brian Keck Corey Smith 3B 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% Jose Santos Ignacio Suarez Tom Nevers Juan Castro 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Jose Cruz Miguel Cairo Jeff Branson Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Kenley Jansen RP 86% 9% 5% Jose Valverde Armando Benitez Gregg Olson Clayton Kershaw SP 92% 3% 5% Vida BlueFernando Valenzuela Barry Zito Hong-Chih Kuo RP 40% 38% 22% Rod Scurry Will Ohman Jason Christiansen Josh Lindblom RP 29% 50% 21% Bill Simas Bert Roberge Jeff Innis Javy Guerra RP 26% 46% 28% Mel Rojas David Lee Felix Rodriguez Scott Elbert RP 24% 52% 24% Armando Almanza Darren Oliver Tim Young Matt Guerrier RP 21% 51% 28% Bryan Corey Steve Schrenk Terry Clark Steven Ames RP 26% 43% 30% Antonio Osuna Robb Nen Chad Orvella Ted Lilly SP 28% 57% 16% Ron Guidry David Wells Scott Sanderson Hiroki Kuroda SP 33% 53% 14% Rick Reed Jon Lieber Kevin Tapani Chad Billingsley SP 32% 57% 11% Darryl Kile Matt Clement Jason Jennings Vicente Padilla SP 28% 47% 24% Eric Rasmussen Pat Hentgen Marvin Freeman Rubby De La Rosa SP 27% 49% 24% J.D. Durbin Paul Abbott Jimmy Journell Ronald Belisario RP 12% 37% 52% Matt Karchner Gregg Olson Mike Cook Jon Garland SP 16% 45% 39% Jonathan Figueroa Albert Williams Jim Slaton Jon Link RP 6% 39% 55% Roy Corcoran Steve Wapnick Craig Pippin Blake Hawksworth RP 4% 38% 58% Steve Gajkowski Brian Schmack David Lundberg Chris Capuano SP 11% 46% 44% Darrell May David Wells Jon Matlack Mike MacDougal RP 11% 33% 56% Ernie Camacho Hal White Darrin Babineaux Nathan Eovaldi SP 8% 40% 52% Rick Berg Dick Ruthven Ben Hendrickson Aaron Harang SP 5% 41% 54% Charles Nagy Ramon Ortiz Ed Whitson Roman Colon RP 15% 25% 60% Gallic Lung Sassanid Tonsil Gastroenteritis Travis SchlichtingRP 3% 23% 74% William Vaughan Greg Bauer Jamie Emiliano John Ely SP 2% 32% 66% Jason Davis Bronson Arroyo Felipe Lira Ramon Troncoso RP 1% 15% 84% Leo Estrella Mark Small Jim Czajkowski Allen Webster SP 1% 16% 84% Dave Hooten Rich Loiselle Jim Converse Mike Parisi SP 8% 18% 74% Carlos Chantres Bryan Kelly Ken Chenard Chris Withrow SP 0% 7% 93% Doug Robertson Matt Wright Matt Bruback Stephen Fife SP 0% 5% 94% Omar Ortiz Mickey Callaway Brian Bass Ian Snell SP 1% 9% 91% Dan Smith Chris Rojas Jeff Robinson Michael Antonini SP 0% 1% 98% Mike Ramsey Evan MacLane Bryan Ward Wilkin De La Rosa RP 0% 3% 97% Danny Young Kevin Pickford Jon Cannon Josh Wall RP 0% 0% 100% Brian Abraham Dallas Trahern Travis Anderson Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Matt Kemp 19% 15% 47% 2% 12% 60% 27% 55% Andre Ethier 17% 26% 13% 3% 0% 5% 13% 0% James Loney 17% 6% 2% 8% 1% 0% 2% 1% Juan Rivera 8% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Jerry Sands 1% 1% 4% 1% 2% 5% 1% 0% Scott Van Slyke 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 1% 0% 0% Angelo Songco 1% 0% 3% 13% 11% 5% 1% 0% Trent Oeltjen 2% 1% 1% 0% 13% 0% 0% 1% Marcus Thames 4% 1% 7% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Juan Uribe 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tony Gwynn 5% 3% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 9% Jerry Hairston 7% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ivan DeJesus 4% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Dee Gordon 11% 0% 0% 0% 57% 0% 0% 90% Adam Kennedy 6% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% Alex Castellanos 1% 0% 0% 1% 18% 0% 0% 1% Blake Smith 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% Brian Cavazos-Galv 2% 0% 1% 2% 7% 1% 0% 11% Jay Gibbons 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mark Ellis 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% John Lindsey 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% A.J. Ellis 3% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Alfredo Silverio 1% 0% 2% 3% 51% 1% 0% 0% Gorman Erickson 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Jamie Hoffmann 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% Jake Lemmerman 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% Justin Sellers 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Casey Blake 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Dioner Navarro 2% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Russ Mitchell 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% Tim Federowicz 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% Aaron Miles 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Eugenio Velez 3% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4% Damaso Espino 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Matt Treanor 2% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ivan Ochoa 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Corey Smith 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Juan Castro 8% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Kenley Jansen 86% 95% 100% 0% 90% Clayton Kershaw 83% 94% 92% 11% 96% Hong-Chih Kuo 30% 70% 96% 1% 74% Josh Lindblom 22% 67% 53% 2% 87% Javy Guerra 20% 65% 31% 2% 78% Scott Elbert 24% 69% 89% 0% 79% Matt Guerrier 15% 58% 6% 9% 72% Steven Ames 19% 62% 80% 11% 58% Hiroki Kuroda 7% 57% 6% 42% 61% Chad Billingsley 6% 61% 38% 0% 94% Vicente Padilla 9% 49% 10% 15% 64% Rubby De La Rosa 8% 47% 46% 0% 79% Ronald Belisario 8% 40% 12% 1% 69% Jon Garland 4% 34% 1% 5% 55% Jon Link 4% 38% 22% 0% 78% Blake Hawksworth 4% 29% 2% 4% 57% Chris Capuano 2% 28% 22% 21% 25% Mike MacDougal 11% 37% 7% 1% 83% Nathan Eovaldi 1% 21% 3% 0% 89% Aaron Harang 1% 18% 2% 8% 45% Roman Colon 10% 31% 6% 13% 69% Travis Schlichting 2% 20% 2% 0% 71% John Ely 0% 10% 0% 1% 52% Ramon Troncoso 1% 12% 1% 1% 45% Allen Webster 0% 3% 1% 0% 63% Mike Parisi 3% 13% 2% 1% 55% Chris Withrow 0% 1% 13% 0% 49% Stephen Fife 0% 1% 0% 0% 52% Ian Snell 0% 3% 3% 0% 28% Michael Antonini 0% 0% 0% 5% 9% Wilkin De La Rosa 0% 2% 3% 0% 41% Josh Wall 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 10, 2011 at 09:54 PM | 26 comment(s)
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1. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 10, 2011 at 10:03 PM (#4012730)That's a pathetic offense. The notion that a team would miss Rod Barajas* had never occurred to me before.
*Not a shot at Barajas who has been perfectly OK for his career, just fungible.
And Vida Blue and Rod Scurry as top comps! You're predicting prison for Kershaw and worse Kuo?
Thanks.
I'm wondering, though, are ZiPs' predictions for Runs glitching this season? I ask because there's a guy with a .297 projected OBP and 4 steals (i.e., not likely a great baserunner) projected to score 100 runs in ~600 AB's. Last year's Dodgers had exactly 1 guy score more than 67 runs, and the guy with 67 had a .368 OBP in 487 AB's (Ethier). I noticed Liddi (.292 projected OBP) projected to score 110 in the Mariners ZiPs and assumed it was a typo that would get fixed in the final release, but after seeing Songco's projection here I thought I'd ask. If there's been discussion of this in previous threads and I'm just behind, I apologize. Just trying to do my part to keep ZiPs the best projection system out there!
Maybe I'm wrong but I'm getting 49-51 instead of 56-61.
You are correct, was looking at a different thing.
Given only 7 starts, he has a good chance to pitch with an ERA+ > approximately 110 over those starts.
From the outside looking in, it looks like 2010 is getting weighted too heavily. But of course you don't change the weights for any one player. Up through and including 2010 he had a .285 career BA. His .324 last year brought his career avg up to .294. He's heading into his age 28 season and still running well.
I am sure ZIPS is taking into account many factors regarding balls in play type, BABIP on those balls in play, etc. His BABIP on GB was .316, career .294, and he actually had a higher GB BABIP in 2008. His FB BABIP was .174, and thats right in line with his .179 career avg and well below his career high in 2009. His LD BABIP is the one that looks a little out of whack....809 vs .739 for career...but there are a lot less LD of course, 90-100 per year, so we are only talking about 3-4 hits there. I guess if you whack off a few homers too, than you might get the avg under .285....
It just seems for a guy that hits the ball that hard all the time, and has a career .352 BABIP, the B.A. is over regressed by ZIPS.
In short...I'll take the over.
Still....just doesn't look right.
Yeah, there were some wrong R/RBI totals for scattered PCL/CAL league players. They're corrected here (and final spreadsheet) and will be correct here on out. Many thanks for the catch!
Similar Innings, ERA+, Left Handers
Only two guys, Newhouser and Waddell
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