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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Thursday, November 03, 20112012 ZIPS Projections - New York MetsObviously not a great year for the Mets at 77-85, but if you just went by the tenor of the media reports, thanks to the Wilpon/Madoff turmoil, you’d think the Mets played like the 1993 edition that went 59-103. The team spent most of the year, playing “sort of OK-ish” and while never really in any kind of risk of being relevant, weren’t Astrotastic horrible.
The pitching staff is interesting in that while it was one of the worst in the league (the 89 ERA+ was 15th of 16 teams in the National League), it was not because of some notably terrible pitching, but almost an entire staff of guys that had recognizable names, were consistently below-average, but also consistently above replacement level. Perhaps best described as the Sterling Hitchcock Rock ‘n’ Fun Zone. Beltran is gone from the offense, Reyes is likely to be, and Wright isn’t the player he was at his best, so the team’s pitching has to get a good bit better as there’s less room to count on the front-line talent to score runs.
The offense is now short on major stars, but they should at least be respectable everywhere, though that won’t be enough to make the team interesting. Don’t get depressed by the Wilmer Flores projection, he was just 19 and ZiPS has him with OPS+ around 100 for a bunch of years in his prime.
It’s still hard to see what direction the organization goes, thanks to the uncertainty resulting from the Madoff/Wilpon/Picard shuffle. With the Dodgers being sold, the Mets return to having the league’s most embarrassing ownership, but in the long-term, they’re still a team with lots of potential revenue streams to tap as they rebuild and Sandy Alderson is as good as they get. Alderson does have an uphill battle in the short-term, but he knew going in that the Mets weren’t rainbow anything, let alone sunshine and lollipops.
Next Up: Detroit Tigers
Szymborski on Twitter
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Jose Reyes B SS 29 .297 .346 .459 118 499 77 148 27 12 10 48 38 47 33 8 118 David Wright R 3B 29 .269 .351 .447 136 517 77 139 31 2 19 78 66 127 20 7 116 Ike Davis L 1B 25 .255 .338 .449 99 361 47 92 21 2 15 51 46 106 1 1 113 Dan Murphy L 1B 27 .286 .334 .432 106 370 42 106 24 3 8 52 26 46 5 3 108 Jason Bay R LF 33 .249 .344 .419 119 430 60 107 19 3 16 63 61 113 9 1 107 Lucas Duda L RF 26 .256 .338 .431 146 504 58 129 31 3 17 70 57 124 1 1 108 Angel Pagan B CF 30 .269 .322 .403 122 472 64 127 25 7 8 55 38 71 25 8 97 Scott Hairston R RF 32 .246 .308 .423 97 260 32 64 14 1 10 36 20 59 5 1 97 Nick Evans R 1B 26 .253 .310 .411 144 509 62 129 29 3 15 59 41 125 2 1 95 Josh Thole L C 25 .271 .342 .363 132 421 36 114 23 2 4 46 44 55 2 2 93 Justin Turner R 2B 27 .265 .327 .372 129 479 60 127 29 2 6 50 37 68 6 3 91 Mike Baxter L RF 27 .248 .319 .392 111 383 50 95 19 6 8 46 37 82 8 5 93 Kirk Nieuwenhuis L CF 24 .238 .304 .398 109 437 64 104 29 4 11 38 39 139 9 5 90 Fernando Martinez L RF 23 .242 .303 .389 98 339 39 82 17 0 11 34 22 91 1 1 88 Willie Harris L LF 34 .228 .336 .354 124 254 34 58 10 2 6 27 38 61 6 3 89 Ruben Tejada R SS 22 .259 .329 .339 156 528 55 137 25 4 3 46 47 82 8 4 83 Zach Lutz R 3B 26 .233 .313 .367 81 300 32 70 13 0 9 34 32 95 0 1 85 Val Pascucci R 1B 33 .215 .309 .370 119 400 40 86 18 1 14 52 53 138 1 1 85 Josh Satin R 2B 27 .238 .313 .359 142 516 58 123 31 2 9 53 54 160 1 4 83 Ronny Paulino R C 31 .254 .300 .346 89 280 24 71 14 0 4 28 20 51 0 0 76 Jason Botts B LF 31 .223 .303 .350 61 197 18 44 11 1 4 20 23 54 0 0 78 Reese Havens L 2B 25 .221 .300 .363 69 262 31 58 12 2 7 25 27 83 1 2 80 Russ Adams L 3B 31 .235 .294 .357 67 230 28 54 11 1 5 26 18 46 3 2 77 Cory Vaughn R RF 23 .222 .306 .367 128 469 48 104 18 4 14 52 44 139 9 10 83 Jason Pridie L CF 28 .237 .281 .351 105 342 39 81 13 4 6 31 21 85 12 4 72 Jordany Valdespin L SS 24 .251 .284 .371 124 491 52 123 24 4 9 43 19 107 22 16 77 Luis Figueroa B SS 38 .263 .301 .336 110 422 40 111 19 3 2 32 23 37 2 4 74 Wilmer Flores R SS 20 .247 .280 .363 156 631 55 156 31 3 12 82 26 107 2 4 74 Matt den Dekker L CF 24 .220 .284 .358 109 427 59 94 20 6 9 43 33 148 13 7 74 Bubba Bell L RF 29 .240 .292 .327 101 333 32 80 15 1 4 31 24 64 8 3 69 Sean Ratliff R CF 25 .223 .264 .370 107 413 45 92 19 3 12 43 22 150 6 5 71 Fernando Perez B CF 29 .215 .277 .287 109 362 48 78 11 3 3 23 30 103 19 5 55 Mike Nickeas R C 29 .225 .295 .295 75 227 16 51 10 0 2 26 21 46 0 1 62 Chin-lung Hu R SS 28 .224 .265 .290 93 290 32 65 9 2 2 19 15 52 7 2 52 Jonathan Malo R 2B 28 .203 .262 .275 107 305 34 62 10 3 2 20 22 81 4 2 47 Raul Chavez R C 39 .216 .236 .278 71 227 12 49 11 0 1 20 6 35 0 0 40 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Jose Reyes AV/94 David Wright FR/119 Ike Davis VG/103 FR/119 Dan Murphy VG/123 FR/117 FR/122 Jason Bay FR/46 Lucas Duda AV/87 FR/118 PO/105 Angel Pagan VG/94 AV/146 VG/85 Scott Hairston AV/93 FR/112 FR/112 Nick Evans AV/76 FR/97 AV/95 FR/91 Josh Thole FR FR/119 Justin Turner FR/130 AV/106 PO/116 Mike Baxter FR/94 PO/118 FR/96 PO/116 FR/81 Kirk Nieuwenhuis AV/119 FR/114 AV/117 Fernando Martinez VG/106 FR/109 VG/101 Willie Harris FR/104 FR/105 AV/85 FR/89 AV/100 Ruben Tejada VG/129 VG/109 Zach Lutz FR/106 FR/109 Val Pascucci AV/157 PO/91 Josh Satin AV/105 FR/117 FR/112 Ronny Paulino FR Jason Botts AV/128 FR/157 FR/148 Reese Havens AV/126 FR/115 Russ Adams AV/116 FR/105 PO/104 FR/135 FR/112 Cory Vaughn AV/126 FR/126 FR/170 Jason Pridie VG/103 VG/104 VG/94 Jordany Valdespin AV/136 AV/208 Luis Figueroa FR/108 FR/95 FR/128 FR/107 Wilmer Flores AV/108 Matt den Dekker AV/113 AV/90 AV/113 Bubba Bell AV/100 FR/127 AV/95 Sean Ratliff VG/148 FR/118 AV/110 Fernando Perez VG/97 VG/129 VG/118 Mike Nickeas VG FR/118 Chin-lung Hu AV/104 AV/91 Jonathan Malo AV/123 VG/100 AV/104 AV/92 FR/128 AV/107 Raul Chavez VG PO/119 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Johan Santana L 33 3.56 6 4 14 14 91.0 87 36 9 24 69 108 R.A. Dickey R 37 3.77 11 8 28 27 179.0 179 75 17 45 114 102 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Jenrry Mejia R 22 4.11 5 4 14 14 65.7 62 30 5 33 48 94 Jonathon Niese L 25 4.17 10 9 27 26 157.7 164 73 16 48 133 92 Chris Young R 33 4.18 2 2 6 6 32.3 30 15 4 15 25 92 Chris Capuano L 33 4.36 8 9 29 22 136.3 139 66 19 39 114 88 Mike Pelfrey R 28 4.48 9 10 30 29 176.7 193 88 17 60 98 86 Matt Harvey R 23 4.62 8 10 27 27 128.7 134 66 13 62 118 83 Dillon Gee R 26 4.70 9 11 29 27 159.0 162 83 23 64 122 82 Jeurys Familia R 22 4.73 6 7 24 24 120.0 124 63 13 64 92 82 Chris Schwinden R 25 4.86 7 9 28 23 137.0 158 74 15 41 94 79 Pat Misch L 30 4.93 7 9 30 20 131.3 155 72 15 37 69 78 Boof Bonser R 30 4.97 1 1 15 6 41.7 46 23 4 18 24 78 Mark Cohoon L 24 5.44 7 11 26 26 137.3 168 83 17 53 77 71 Josh Stinson R 24 5.49 6 11 45 16 116.3 134 71 13 62 67 70 Armando Rodriguez R 24 5.49 5 7 21 21 95.0 99 58 15 56 74 70 Dylan Owen R 25 5.68 5 9 29 20 115.7 134 73 18 57 76 68 Brandon Moore R 26 5.70 5 9 23 22 113.7 139 72 16 48 73 68 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Danny Herrera L 27 3.72 4 3 66 0 65.3 66 27 5 19 47 104 Bobby Parnell R 27 3.75 4 3 67 0 72.0 67 30 6 30 70 103 Tim Byrdak L 38 4.05 1 1 59 0 33.3 31 15 3 17 32 95 Ryota Igarashi R 33 4.19 3 3 56 0 58.0 55 27 6 31 54 92 Mike O’Connor L 31 4.26 4 5 47 0 63.3 67 30 6 21 51 90 Manny Acosta R 31 4.31 3 3 58 0 62.7 59 30 8 32 59 89 Justin Hampson L 32 4.37 2 2 32 0 35.0 36 17 4 11 27 88 Pedro Beato R 25 4.39 2 2 57 0 65.7 66 32 6 28 42 88 Taylor Buchholz R 30 4.39 1 1 24 0 26.7 26 13 3 11 23 88 D.J. Carrasco R 35 4.39 3 3 48 4 80.0 84 39 7 30 56 88 Dale Thayer R 31 4.43 4 4 56 0 67.0 71 33 7 22 46 87 Miguel Batista R 41 4.46 3 3 41 7 78.7 78 39 6 42 49 86 Jason IsringhausenR 39 4.56 2 2 30 0 25.7 23 13 3 15 24 85 Brian Sweeney R 38 4.57 3 4 29 4 63.0 69 32 7 18 41 84 John Lujan R 28 4.84 4 5 48 0 61.3 68 33 6 28 46 80 Taylor Tankersley L 29 5.18 1 2 50 0 48.7 52 28 6 27 40 74 Gustavo Chacin L 31 5.47 3 6 34 10 77.3 94 47 10 32 40 70 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ David Wright .280 .357 .460 2245 8546 1285 2390 521 34 318 1327 1032 1818 295 119 Jason Bay .265 .357 .462 1660 6009 932 1591 314 41 264 974 826 1534 120 117 Angel Pagan .267 .318 .397 1281 4691 624 1253 247 60 80 521 360 678 205 93 Jose Reyes .287 .333 .438 2219 9466 1428 2719 465 209 182 887 660 905 605 106 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Johan Santana 168 101 1 3.32 433 357 2502 2207 922 271 697 2317 129 Mike Pelfrey 110 124 1 4.46 349 340 2042 2223 1012 187 720 1158 88 Chris Capuano 88 101 0 4.46 297 246 1513 1564 749 217 479 1262 92 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Jose Reyes SS 82% 15% 3% 1% 0% Carlos Guillen Rafael Furcal Jimmy Rollins David Wright 3B 33% 40% 19% 6% 2% Jeff Blauser Corey Koskie Scott Rolen Ike Davis 1B 6% 19% 31% 34% 12% Troy Neel Reggie Jefferson Mario Valdez Dan Murphy 1B 2% 11% 31% 37% 21% Chris Chambliss Willie Montanez Terry Whitfield Jason Bay LF 10% 30% 29% 22% 10% Woodie Held Wally Westlake Eric Davis Lucas Duda RF 4% 24% 30% 26% 18% Steve Cox Adam LaRoche Joe Vitiello Angel Pagan CF 12% 21% 44% 18% 7% Coco Crisp Brian McRae Mitch Webster Scott Hairston RF 2% 8% 13% 34% 44% John Valle Brandon Berger Tony Barron Nick Evans 1B 0% 2% 8% 39% 52% Steve Stanicek Jeff Baker Dustan Mohr Josh Thole C 3% 22% 41% 28% 6% Milt May Mike LaValliere Kurt Suzuki Justin Turner 2B 4% 12% 24% 37% 25% Joe Randa Mark Lewis Billy Ripken Mike Baxter RF 2% 6% 4% 19% 70% Keith Hughes Bubba Crosby Steve Carter Kirk Nieuwenhuis CF 3% 8% 25% 39% 26% Myron White Jim Edmonds Al Chambers Fernando Martinez RF 1% 3% 6% 13% 79% Mark Hamilton Joe Vitiello John-Ford Griffin Willie Harris LF 1% 3% 2% 11% 84% Larry Sutton Dann Howitt Reed Secrist Ruben Tejada SS 2% 7% 26% 44% 22% Aaron Hill Julio Franco Al Lopez Zach Lutz 3B 1% 1% 10% 25% 64% Reed Secrist Fran Mullins Matt Macri Val Pascucci 1B 0% 2% 3% 14% 82% Ty Van Burkleo Leroy Stanton Scott Ullger Josh Satin 2B 2% 3% 3% 26% 68% Chris Gomez Dick Green Mark Naehring Ronny Paulino C 0% 4% 13% 36% 48% Charlie Berry Robert Machado Jason Hill Jason Botts LF 0% 0% 1% 4% 96% Darrell Whitmore Mike Colangelo Orsino Hill Reese Havens 2B 1% 4% 5% 15% 77% Dave Baker Mike Costanzo Chris Lombardozzi Russ Adams 3B 1% 2% 4% 12% 82% Jorge Velandia Jason Wood Mike Bell Cory Vaughn RF 1% 1% 1% 8% 91% Carlos Sosa Jeremy Dodson Jeff Bailey Jason Pridie CF 1% 2% 5% 18% 76% Tommy Murphy Alexis Gomez Jalal Leach Jordany Valdespin SS 2% 3% 7% 29% 60% John Wehner Bill Spiers Rafael Ramirez Luis Figueroa SS 0% 1% 7% 19% 74% Larry Bowa Casey Candaele Nellie Fox Wilmer Flores SS 3% 5% 6% 24% 63% Luis Cruz Gregorio Petit Carlos Rivero Matt den Dekker CF 0% 1% 4% 16% 80% Brad Snyder Todd Dunwoody Braulio Castillo Bubba Bell RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 100% Justin Gemoll Jason Huisman Ken Woods Sean Ratliff CF 0% 0% 3% 7% 91% Rondal Rollin Jim Olander Pat Rooney Fernando Perez CF 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% Glen Barker Lee Tinsley Mike Murphy Mike Nickeas C 0% 1% 1% 7% 91% Chris Tremie Tom Nieto Bill Dobrolsky Chin-lung Hu SS 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Brian Keck Raul Nieves Juan Sosa Jonathan Malo 2B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Chris Petersen Jon Schuerholz Brian Keck Raul Chavez C 0% 1% 0% 2% 98% Tony Pena Rick Ferrell Sandy Alomar Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Johan Santana SP 46% 44% 11% Jimmy Key Mike Flanagan Jon Matlack Danny Herrera RP 24% 49% 27% Larry Casian Gabe Gonzalez Erasmo Ramirez Bobby Parnell RP 20% 55% 26% Colter Bean Mike Timlin Terry Adams R.A. Dickey SP 33% 50% 17% Rick Mahler Paul Byrd Doyle Alexander Tim Byrdak RP 19% 39% 42% Jesse Orosco Dan Plesac Ron Villone Jenrry Mejia SP 24% 48% 28% John Miller Scipio Spinks Mike Harkey Jonathon Niese SP 16% 58% 25% Glendon Rusch Rheal Cormier Steve Trout Chris Young SP 23% 30% 47% Chuck Smith Kevin Foster Scott Kamieniecki Ryota Igarashi RP 6% 39% 55% Heathcliff Slocumb Tim Stoddard Doug Bochtler Mike O’Connor RP 5% 34% 61% Yan Lachapelle Buddy Groom Jim Crowell Manny Acosta RP 5% 36% 59% David Lee Doug Bochtler Ricky Bottalico Chris Capuano SP 10% 45% 44% Darrell May David Wells Jon Matlack Justin Hampson RP 10% 32% 58% Brian Shouse Vic Darensbourg Bryan Eversgerd Pedro Beato RP 4% 31% 65% Jeremy Wedel Ryan Wing Jimmy Myers Taylor Buchholz RP 20% 33% 48% Bill Risley Aaron Rakers Doug Henry D.J. Carrasco RP 6% 29% 65% A.J. Sager Dennis Lamp Ricky Barlow Dale Thayer RP 6% 33% 60% Jay Tessmer Brian Schmack Jack Cressend Miguel Batista RP 12% 27% 61% Don McMahon Ted Abernathy Joe Heving Mike Pelfrey SP 6% 44% 50% Scott Erickson Lary Sorensen Ryan Drese Jason IsringhausenRP 13% 26% 61% Doug Bair Don McMahon Greg Harris Brian Sweeney RP 7% 25% 68% Matt Herges Dave Pavlas Rick White Matt Harvey SP 4% 35% 60% Calvin Schiraldi John Adams Kyle Davies Dillon Gee SP 3% 30% 68% Dan Carlson Allen Morlock Mike Trombley Jeurys Familia SP 2% 30% 68% Matt WrightJohn Van Benschoten J.D. Durbin John Lujan RP 2% 16% 82% Erik Schullstrom Kevin Gryboski Jeff McCurry Chris Schwinden SP 1% 25% 74% Elizardo Ramirez Clay Parker A.J. Sager Pat Misch SP 3% 22% 75% Mark Hendrickson Scott Downs Andrew Lorraine Boof Bonser SP 4% 15% 81% Mark Hutton Bennie Daniels Bob Scanlan Taylor Tankersley RP 1% 15% 84% Scott Watkins Ben Julianel Tim Adkins Mark Cohoon SP 0% 4% 96% Jason Cromer Wes Whisler Jason Dickson Gustavo Chacin RP 0% 4% 96% Jamie Walker Buddy Groom Bill Krueger Josh Stinson SP 0% 1% 99% Bill Malloy Brandy Vann Willis Roberts Armando Rodriguez SP 0% 8% 91% Robert Person Oscar Munoz Marino Santana Dylan Owen SP 0% 3% 97% David Walters Larry McWilliams Josh Axelson Brandon Moore SP 0% 3% 97% Sonny Garcia Rich Yett Martire Franco Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Jose Reyes 44% 8% 13% 0% 74% 2% 8% 57% David Wright 3% 15% 12% 3% 1% 6% 9% 13% Ike Davis 1% 7% 9% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% Dan Murphy 13% 1% 3% 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% Jason Bay 1% 6% 3% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% Lucas Duda 0% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% Angel Pagan 3% 2% 1% 0% 13% 0% 0% 24% Scott Hairston 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Nick Evans 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% Josh Thole 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Justin Turner 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mike Baxter 1% 1% 2% 0% 10% 1% 2% 1% Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0% 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Fernando Martinez 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Willie Harris 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ruben Tejada 1% 2% 0% 1% 7% 0% 0% 2% Zach Lutz 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Val Pascucci 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Josh Satin 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ronny Paulino 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jason Botts 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Reese Havens 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Russ Adams 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Cory Vaughn 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 1% 1% 1% Jason Pridie 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% Jordany Valdespin 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 1% 0% 17% Luis Figueroa 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Wilmer Flores 1% 0% 2% 6% 4% 5% 1% 0% Matt den Dekker 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% Bubba Bell 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Sean Ratliff 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Fernando Perez 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% Mike Nickeas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chin-lung Hu 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jonathan Malo 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Raul Chavez 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Johan Santana 19% 69% 9% 25% 69% Danny Herrera 18% 66% 8% 25% 85% Bobby Parnell 15% 68% 74% 1% 84% R.A. Dickey 10% 55% 3% 34% 73% Tim Byrdak 19% 48% 63% 0% 80% Jenrry Mejia 7% 44% 7% 0% 85% Jonathon Niese 3% 40% 26% 7% 73% Chris Young 9% 32% 15% 2% 62% Ryota Igarashi 6% 37% 57% 0% 67% Mike O'Connor 3% 32% 22% 7% 69% Manny Acosta 4% 27% 65% 0% 51% Chris Capuano 2% 24% 26% 12% 27% Justin Hampson 10% 32% 16% 21% 65% Pedro Beato 2% 28% 1% 1% 72% Taylor Buchholz 12% 40% 37% 9% 55% D.J. Carrasco 5% 25% 6% 4% 76% Dale Thayer 5% 27% 2% 10% 62% Miguel Batista 10% 31% 5% 1% 81% Mike Pelfrey 0% 18% 0% 2% 79% Jason Isringhausen 13% 39% 51% 1% 57% Brian Sweeney 6% 27% 4% 22% 57% Matt Harvey 0% 14% 57% 0% 65% Dillon Gee 0% 9% 8% 0% 24% Jeurys Familia 0% 9% 8% 0% 61% John Lujan 1% 13% 7% 0% 76% Chris Schwinden 0% 7% 1% 8% 56% Pat Misch 0% 7% 0% 16% 56% Boof Bonser 2% 14% 3% 2% 74% Taylor Tankersley 1% 11% 28% 0% 42% Mark Cohoon 0% 0% 0% 0% 43% Gustavo Chacin 0% 3% 1% 1% 51% Josh Stinson 0% 1% 0% 0% 60% Armando Rodriguez 0% 1% 12% 0% 20% Dylan Owen 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% Brandon Moore 0% 0% 0% 0% 32% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:07 PM | 81 comment(s)
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1. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:26 PM (#3985918)I'll also take the over on his projection, but I'm like that.
Ike Davis will be 25 - his career mark is 123, and he hit .309/.386/.565 in AA and .364/.500/.636 in 42 AAA PAs... and he projects to 113
Murphy will be 27, his career average is 111, he projects to 108
Duda is at 124 in 439 MLB PAs, he's hit .310/.398/.606 in AAA (IL, not PCL, go look up how many guys who can OPS 1.000 in the IL)- he'll be 26, he projects to 108
Wright, OK he hit 114 last year, but he's still under 30, his 3:2:1 weighted average of 2009-2011 is 124, he projects to 116
maybe this is the fanboy in me speaking, but a bunch of these guys look 5-10 light to me
and now for my totally irrelevant complaint/comparison:
2012 ZiPS:
FMart: 242/.303/.389,
Pascucci: 215/.309/.370
2011, Buffalo:
FMart:.260/.329/.417
PAscucci: .264/.375/.476
2010, Buffalo:
FMart:.253/.317/.455
Pascucci: .258/.398/.579
Career AAA:
FMart: .265/.326/.465
Pascucci:.275/.393/.509
Yes, I know Pascucci is 33 and FMart is young and has potential and all that... But shouldn't FMart at least get CLOSE to Pascucci in the here and now before you'd expect him to pass him in the immediate future?
It was awful last year
I think that's Pascucci's K rate talking.
I'm also curious, but think that projecting Lageres is impossible at this point-
2011 was 90% BABIP driven (his walk rate went from abysmal to merely terrible)
But he was just 22, maybe he really did take a "great leap forward," he has some pop (not a lot) and his K rate is low enough so that he could sustain a high batting average, but he was pretty bad before 2011
If he hits .325 in Binghamton/Buffalo in 2012 I won't be surprised, unfortunately I wouldn't be surprised if he hits .265 with little power or walks either...
The guy I think ZiPS is most "off" on up above is Duda, I think he's legit 120-135 hitter, and will be so until he's 30, unfortunately I also think he's legit DH as well. The guy I'm terribly worried that ZiPS is right about is Wright...
I also suspect that Tejada is going to post a 100 or so... but have tad less confidence in that prediction
It's not much worse than FMart's.
The pitching -- ayayay. Why exactly were they so intent on holding on to Capuano? Thankfully, Izzy and Iggy are no more.
That's nice and all, but the problem is that nobody I know of thinks Flores has even a prayer of staying at SS, and he doesn't have nearly the speed to be a center fielder or the hands to be a 2B. So if he projects to an OPS+ of 100, it's probably going to be as a 3B or -- even more likely -- as a corner outfielder.
I assume I don't have to say what a 3B or corner outfielder with a 100ish OPS+ is worth. If he's a 3B, he better be a heck of a glove to be worth a damn.
The Ike Davis projection looks fine to me. If he plays 99 games and hits 15 home runs, that's 25 or so in a full season. Sounds about right to me. Maybe a tick higher with the shorter fences, if he's fully healthy on the ankle.
The Mets aren't going to be really good again (at the earliest) until and unless they hit the jackpot on their young pitching prospects. And that's both a longshot, and not a 2012 proposition anyway. 2012 is about watching how they progress, and hoping they stay healthy. It's not really about the major league team much, at all. I'd say the single most significant player on next year's major league team is almost certainly Niese. If he can take a step forward and start to have his results match his peripherals, he could represent the first genuine piece of the rotation they need to put together. Other than Niese, the guys we should really be watching are Wheeler, Harvey, Familia and Mejia (in his return from Tommy John). If two of those five hit as top of the rotation starters by 2014, and one develops into a solid innings guy (i.e., better than Pelfrey), the foundation for a contenders' rotation will be set and we'll be good to go.
I think Ike is a little low. 113 OPS+ does seem a tad on the low side, what offensive levels are being projected again? 338/449 is about the same as he did as a rookie (351/440) and he was great last year. Sure he didn't play a lot, but he's 2 years older, and he was really good in 35 games last year, his career slug is 460, so 449 does seem a tad light to me.
Definitely agree with this. Niese just missed qualifying for the fangraphs leaderboards, but if you drop it down to 150 IP, Niese was 17th in FIP and 10th in xFIP in the NL. He's had trouble with BABIP his entire career, but if he can get anywhere close to that, the Mets have something like a #2 starter on a championship team.
With the shorter and lower fences in left field? He'd have to be complete and utter toast for it to be WAY under. (Which I grant you is not outside the realm of possibility by any means.) I'd go for a dozen and wouldn't be shocked if he made it to the over on that.
Am I just sample-sizing the hell out of this, or does this look like a guy who's having vision issues?
and he did have power as recently as 2008/09 :-)
I agree with this entirely, which is also why I don't care too much about these (or any other) projections. The Mets need players to hit their 80th percentile or better. If most players hit their mean projection, the Mets will be crap for the next couple of years (at least). But we already knew this.
That looks to me like Wright's worst, medium, and best-case scenario.
Definitely, but the range of prices at which they are in acceptance also definitely varies.
Walk-heavy minor league numbers don't translate well. ZiPS sees Thole as being very consistent around this level (93, 95, 95, 96, 96, 94, 93, 88 though 32), but sees very little offensive upside. And catchers have more natural offensive downside than any other position. Move Thole to be an inadequate 1B and the you can pretty much add 5 points to that number a year.
Murphy will be 27, his career average is 111, he projects to 108
Again, ZiPS sees his upside as limited.
Duda is at 124 in 439 MLB PAs, he's hit .310/.398/.606 in AAA (IL, not PCL, go look up how many guys who can OPS 1.000 in the IL)- he'll be 26, he projects to 108)
ZiPS has his combined minor league translations and major league numbers as:
222/301/328
229/314/338
252/332/461
281/363/471
Which is kind of sad to me, because when Wright first came up, the comp I seemed to read everywhere was Rolen. And by about 2008 or so, it was looking like he'd be a better player than Rolen. (Damn was Rolen a great player, so maybe a better way of phrasing it was by 2007 or 2008 it looked like he would be Rolen if Rolen could play 155 games every year).
I suspected as much, but nice to know for sure. Thanks.
which using Shea/Citifield for each year yields an OPS+ of
66
75
115
131
That's an unweighted 4 year average of 97
It gives a 3:2:1 weighted average of 116
personally I think he is simply not the player he was pre-2010 (but again that could be the fanboy in me talking)
197 in 1733 PAs is walk heavy?
He may very well be a 95 "true talent" hitter, but his walk rate is average, he's got no HR power, basically his OPS/OPS+ is going to fluctuate with his BABIP
He's got a low enough K-Rate that he could hit .300 some year- and that'll generate a .300/.370/.380 line and an OPS+ of 110 or so, he might also bat .250 and drop that OPS+ to 80, he's hit 96 so far, but I just don't see him consistently being around there...
ZiPS does.
It's not that his walk rate was so *high* but that it was a disproportionately large contributor to his positive offensive value.
Limited, or passed? Isn't it basically saying, his peak is passed, even though he's about to enter his prime? I'm sure the year off didn't help, and I get why the projection is what it is with the slightly below average '09... just not sure about that explanation.
Limited, or passed? Isn't it basically saying, his peak is passed, even though he's about to enter his prime? I'm sure the year off didn't help, and I get why the projection is what it is with the slightly below average '09... just not sure about that explanation.
Risk skewness changes the mean expectation. Even if I know for a fact that player X is a 110 OPS+ player today, if there's more downside than upside, the expectation is necessarily going to be lower. Murphy's not projected to have a higher floor, just a lower upside.
I'm not really a contracts guy, so my thoughts on it are probably going to sound stupid. I think that the risk of his injury history cannot be ignored, and I would assume off the bat that Reyes and his agent would know asking for Crawford or Werth money is going to make them seem laughable, even if he deserves it, considering what's happened to THEM.
I don't even remember what's been bandied about already, but I think any deal at $20M+ per is too high. Have 5/90M and 6/100M been laughed off the threads already? I can't even find them.
Someone really needs to make an official FA prediction thread. I'm never going to be able to remember the random threads in which I throw out these numbers.
The Mets seem to be sending signals that they are unwilling to go past five years on any deal for Reyes. This could be meant to make clear early on their line in the sand to prepare fans for his eventual departure. As a negotiating strategy against other teams, if the Mets really want to keep him, I think it's awfully dumb. It basically tells their competition exactly what they need to do to eliminate the Mets: include a sixth year in their offer.
I expect the Mets will go to something like 5/$85 or a bit less. That won't do it, and I think it will end up getting the Mets some very bad PR when the bidding is won by somebody else well north of that -- over $100M for sure. Worse still would be if their current strategy of letting some other team set the market ends up meaning they never even make a bid at all, because Reyes's initial offers either beat the Mets' best or the offers get there so quickly the Mets never even get out of the box with a bid. Tactically, I think they are courting a debacle here -- even if it turns out the best offer ends up being one the Mets can reasonably say they should NOT have matched.
I guess to me that seems low, and I'd settle for 5/$90 or 5/$95, 6/$100 or 6/$110, but if it's 5/$100 or 6/$120 with a very heavy heart I'd probably pass.
And then watch him put up 7 or 8 years in a row like last year, because that's how we roll.
That just seems hard to believe with the current state of the SS position around the league. Just off the top of my head, he'd be an obvious upgrade for a bunch of teams that can afford him: Detroit (with Peralta moving to 3B), Boston, St. Louis (if they don't re-sign Pujols, they can't afford both), Philadelphia (if they don't re-sign Reyes), Milwaukee (if they don't re-sign Fielder), Florida (if they move Hanley to 3B or CF), San Francisco.
We tried in this thread. Didn't get a lot od response, but my picks are there...
First, and most importantly: ZiPS came out in what, 2003? So the question is -- is this the worst Mets team that ZiPS has ever predicted? It's got to be close. I can't find the 2004 squad on google anywhere, but they at least had Matsui and a young Reyes and Piazza hanging on. We know that squad ended the year poorly, but you have to think as constituted in the spring that it didn't look as bad as this one (assuming no Reyes).
Second, not even one reliever projected as league average? That's got to be ... rare, to say the least? Even the Astros last year had Brandon Lyon projected as average for cryin' out loud.
Third, I don't disagree with it, but seeing an all-time great like Johan Santana projected for 168 career wins is a shame. I know about the late start and all, but man, didn't it seem at one point like he was on the HOF track? From 03-08 he had 17 wins a year and five finishes in the top 5 for the Cy Young. ZiPS sees him winning only 35 more games, total.
Lastly, I'll take the under on Niese, again. And I'll put the (nonexistent) house on it.
I'm sure Zips is being very, very conservative with a pitcher going into their age 33 season who just missed an entire season. If Santana is able to bounce back and have a couple good, healthy seasons, I could see him going above 200 wins easily. But, unless he has a Randy Johnsonish run in his late 30s, I doubt he makes 300 wins and might not have the counting stats for the HOF.
I would guess Detroit and San Fran are the big teams chasing him. But I think the fact that there are so many teams that need a SS makes it likely that at least one of them offers Jose a big contract.
Is Niese the new Glendon Rusch? I haven't paid attention to any DIPS debates since about 2001, so, if anyone can let me know what the world decided about these types of pitchers, I'd be much obliged to learn.
No real offers? Capuano was bad last year. ERA+ of 82, and worse in the second half than in the first, which seemed pretty clear on the mound and on the scoreboard. By the beginning of August he looked toasty. Even the Red Sox seem not to have made any kind of offer for him, so why not hang onto him in the drive for 81?
How deep does ZIPS go? BABIP, Opposing DER...? That could account for the apparent discrepancies versus OPS+.
edit: Pelfrey's odd-even pattern is currently in the shape that some projection systems, reasonably enough, punish. 81, 107, 78 for the last three years. That brilliant ERA+ of 113 in 2008 is getting further and further away...
Anyway, that's what Niese seems like, to me. A pitcher who was never given the time, when it wouldn't have cost, to really learn the craft of pitching. He was good enough to just make it into a major league rotation and stay there, but at that level he can't risk a month or two of complete ineffectiveness--or worse--to try to get more movement on his cutter, change his grip and add two more mph on his fastball, or mess with and improve the break on his curve, just for instance.
I mentioned it in another thread, but MLB Network put up the top 5 teams going for Reyes:
1. Brewers
2. Giants
3. Nats
4. Mets
5. Marlins
Capuano was bad last year.
I was fine with him coming back this year, but his major problem is home runs and with the new dimensions I'm not so sure I want him back anymore.
I don't think Niese will ever perform to FIP either, as hes underperformed his entire career, minors too.
It seems to me you don't really understand FIP. The point is that pitchers who K a decent number of guys are expected not to give up a lot of hits. The ones who do are, by definition, underperformers of FIP and its derivatives.
As for Niese, we'll see. He hasn't pitched enough to know if he's going to get the results FIP, et al, would predict. Your comments about his arsenal make very little sense in light of his K & BB rates. Clearly he can beat hitters. It's just a matter of what's happening when, inevitably, they put it in play.
Go f*ck yourself, toilet breath.
Do you really have nothing better to do than follow me around saying stupid sh!t? Get a life, c@cksucker.
You're not one of those idiots that wobbled over here a couple of years back from Amazin Avenue, are you?
You are! You're one of those internet freaks I've read about, who trolls people without any point or purpose whatever and keeps begging for a kick in the nuts. I could suggest we leave each other alone, but you're incapable of it. You'll keep this up until my foot gets tired.
What would you have offered him to come back? He seems to have no upside left at all--I think I'd much rather the Mets find a guy who might surprise us for the couple of million it'd probably take to bring Capuano back.
I don't know what would be a good price for him. His K/BB was over 3, it was just nice to see a Mets pitcher who didn't go to 3 balls on every batter. I wasn't expecting more than a 4 or 5 starter.
That's really funny, because that's exactly who I was thinking about last night after reading this thread.
And also, I didn't realize this until right now, but did you see who ZIPS sees as Niese's #1 comp?
Edit: And on Capuano, he had a 4.04 FIP and 3.67 xFIP last year, that's why I would be interested in bringing him back for another year. Nothing more than a 1 year deal, so maybe we don't have a chance, but I think he outpitched his ERA last year. Even in August and September, he had a combined K:BB ratio of 66:15. (Even if you want to throw out that great Braves st art for whatever reason, it's still like 53:14, which is pretty damn good).
Last year, Capuano had the best K rate of his career (not including 2004, where he threw 88 IP) and the second best BB rate of his career. The home runs were high, like they pretty much always where, and the point about bringing the fences in is a good one, but I would still be interested in him at a year, for around $4-5 million. It's not like we have a ton major league ready pitchers on the farm. Hopefully we will by 2013, but not for next year.
Joe Sheehan, is that you?
Why does God hate us so?
I’d have taken the salary relief, even if meant a couple of Batista starts. The $400k would barely help resign Jose, but maybe they could use it to sign the next Jose.
I don't think so.
Niese is a ground ball pitcher with a high rate of hits on fly balls in play; he doesn't allow a high percentage of line drives, which was Rusch's problem. The new dimensions at home, IMO, are going to hurt him more than anyone - some of those long FB hits are going to leave the yard instead.
-- MWE
Concur.
Especially with Mazzone -- and now Duncan, probably -- sitting on the sidelines.
I hope not...
OK, 2009-2011, 135 pitchers had 300+ IP, Niese's BABIP of .335 is second worst, Felipe Paulino at .351 is in a league all his own
.350+: 1
.330-.349: 2
.310-.329: 24
.290-.309: 61
.270-.289: 40
.250-.269: 7
267 had 100 to 299ip:
.350+: 5
.330-.349: 10
.310-.329: 63
.290-.309: 80
.270-.289: 55
.250-.269: 33
.230-.249: 18
.210-.229: 3
That's Trevor Bell at .373 and Neftali Feliz at .221
2002-2011, NL only, 600+IP
.350+: 0
.330-.349: 1
.310-.329: 12
.290-.309: 52
.270-.289: 30
.250-.269: 2
.230-.249: 0
.210-.229: 0
The worst is the infamous Glendon Rusch at .332
Where does this leave Niese? It appears really hard to sustain a BABIP as high as his- there is some sel;ection bias going on- because it's hard to pile up 600+ IP with a BABIP that high, because unless your k/9 and k/bb are superlative and no one homers on you- you are gonna give up a lot of runs and if you do that you are not gonna get 600+ IP...
Is there some bad luck involved? Possibly, he;'s got a .337 BABIP, even .315- which is still HIGH would render him noticeably more effective
I'll have what he's having.
Around 2000 on BaseballBoards.com, I made a bunch of inflammatory posts on the Braves forum, declaring Glendon Rusch to be better than Tom Glavine. Good times!
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