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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Monday, October 24, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - New York YankeesAnd heeeeeeeere come the pretzels!
Just a reminder, that I’m going in reverse from last year. Starting next year, I’m going to randomly draw for order.
ZiPS is rather grumpy again about the Yankee starting pitching. Banuelos and Betances still have a lot of upside, but ZiPS is suspicious about them immediately making an impact in the rotation, given that they both walked way too many batters in AA. The good news for Yankees fans, of course, is that the team has an open wallet and is likely to be a serious player in the free agent market, especially if they can quickly and neatly deal with the Sabathia situation.
The offense has a lot of guys on the wrong side of 30, but they’ll still have a crazy-good offense. Not a lot of teams have 6 guys under contract that project to be a league-average 1B offensively or better.
The Sabathia comps, as usual, are pretty funny in that he gets a lot of little guys. Sabathia outweights Billy Pierce by what, 150 pounds? However, big pitchers don’t actually have a different aging curve.
Next Up: Boston Red Sox
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Robinson Cano L 2B 29 .299 .347 .506 156 609 92 182 41 5 25 103 40 76 6 3 121 Mark Teixeira B 1B 32 .263 .359 .495 147 562 88 148 32 1 32 109 76 112 2 1 122 Curtis Granderson L CF 31 .256 .346 .495 147 547 104 140 22 8 31 92 71 143 16 7 118 Alex Rodriguez R 3B 36 .264 .350 .474 108 405 62 107 20 1 21 82 51 89 7 2 115 Jesus Montero R C 22 .271 .333 .486 156 576 79 156 37 3 27 93 55 116 0 0 112 Nick Swisher B RF 31 .253 .358 .456 142 498 76 126 27 1 24 82 80 129 1 2 113 Andruw Jones R LF 35 .234 .335 .455 80 222 31 52 10 0 13 38 32 65 3 1 106 Brett Gardner L LF 28 .260 .352 .370 149 462 80 120 17 8 6 39 61 91 43 10 91 Russell Martin R C 29 .249 .346 .382 123 422 60 105 17 0 13 58 58 76 10 4 92 Jorge Posada B 1B 40 .238 .329 .414 105 324 35 77 15 0 14 47 41 80 1 1 94 Eduardo Nunez R SS 25 .273 .312 .379 141 480 57 131 23 2 8 48 26 64 21 7 81 Derek Jeter R SS 38 .268 .329 .362 129 542 78 145 22 4 7 58 46 84 14 5 82 Justin Maxwell R LF 28 .207 .305 .400 94 295 47 61 11 2 14 40 39 121 16 5 84 Jorge Vazquez R 1B 30 .235 .275 .449 103 405 50 95 18 0 23 77 20 138 0 0 87 Jordan Parraz R RF 27 .246 .316 .383 126 459 58 113 25 4 10 54 37 98 6 6 83 Terry Tiffee B 1B 33 .269 .295 .386 57 223 23 60 14 0 4 24 8 29 0 1 78 Brandon Laird R 3B 24 .247 .286 .399 156 584 65 144 28 2 19 88 30 121 1 1 78 David Adams R 2B 25 .255 .314 .376 84 322 42 82 23 2 4 41 24 75 5 6 81 Gary Sanchez R C 19 .218 .279 .417 101 381 50 83 15 2 19 60 33 137 1 1 80 Mike Lamb L 1B 36 .256 .293 .372 80 266 29 68 12 2 5 34 13 32 0 0 74 Austin Romine R C 23 .252 .300 .364 125 489 58 123 22 0 11 67 33 98 2 2 74 Chris Dickerson L CF 30 .227 .309 .338 103 269 37 61 11 2 5 23 31 84 16 5 71 Francisco CervelliR C 26 .255 .321 .343 74 216 24 55 8 1 3 31 18 44 2 2 75 Corban Joseph L 2B 23 .244 .307 .363 151 589 70 144 34 6 8 62 52 131 4 6 76 Greg Golson R CF 26 .237 .285 .349 140 490 56 116 16 6 9 42 29 138 18 5 66 Kevin Russo R 2B 27 .247 .301 .339 116 449 49 111 18 4 5 38 31 94 10 5 68 Jose Gil R C 25 .228 .283 .355 80 276 29 63 14 0 7 35 20 62 2 1 67 Ramiro Pena B SS 26 .240 .288 .331 105 296 35 71 11 2 4 31 20 57 6 2 63 Eric Chavez L 3B 34 .238 .288 .336 40 122 13 29 6 0 2 16 9 28 0 0 64 Gustavo Molina R C 30 .231 .262 .360 58 186 14 43 9 0 5 23 7 39 0 0 62 Colin Curtis L LF 27 .228 .285 .332 106 377 40 86 19 1 6 37 27 81 3 2 62 Melky Mesa R CF 25 .199 .261 .346 127 477 55 95 20 4 14 54 33 185 15 10 58 Slade Heathcott L CF 21 .217 .285 .331 87 360 48 78 14 3 7 26 30 125 11 15 62 Doug Bernier R SS 32 .199 .278 .263 91 281 29 56 11 2 1 23 28 83 3 1 44 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Robinson Cano AV/71 Mark Teixeira AV/58 Curtis Granderson AV/69 Alex Rodriguez AV/68 Jesus Montero FR Nick Swisher FR/101 AV/60 AV/60 Andruw Jones AV/99 AV/91 PO/112 VG/99 Brett Gardner EX/66 VG/81 Russell Martin AV Jorge Posada PO FR/106 Eduardo Nunez AV/128 FR/111 AV/143 AV/101 Derek Jeter FR/67 Justin Maxwell VG/105 AV/89 AV/114 Jorge Vazquez AV/159 PO/102 Jordan Parraz AV/94 VG/136 Terry Tiffee FR/105 PO/101 AV/91 Brandon Laird AV/101 AV/104 FR/99 FR/112 David Adams AV/84 AV/102 Gary Sanchez FR Mike Lamb PO/102 PO/112 PO/108 Austin Romine FR Chris Dickerson VG/119 AV/96 AV/136 Francisco Cervelli AV Corban Joseph AV/169 AV/104 Greg Golson VG/87 VG/99 VG/89 Kevin Russo FR/105 AV/111 AV/111 FR/99 AV/101 Jose Gil AV Ramiro Pena FR/99 VG/99 AV/96 FR/98 Eric Chavez FR/101 FR/82 Gustavo Molina VG FR/122 Colin Curtis VG/86 AV/90 AV/87 Melky Mesa VG/113 AV/132 VG/113 Slade Heathcott VG/234 Doug Bernier AV/106 FR/102 AV/102 PO/70 FR/101 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ CC Sabathia L 31 3.55 17 8 31 31 218.0 211 86 19 63 189 126 Ivan Nova R 25 4.44 13 10 31 30 178.3 189 88 20 60 111 100 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Bartolo Colon R 39 4.77 7 6 20 19 111.3 121 59 17 32 78 93 Phil Hughes R 26 4.84 9 8 25 22 122.7 127 66 18 44 96 92 Freddy Garcia R 35 4.85 9 8 23 22 128.0 143 69 18 40 75 92 Hector Noesi R 25 5.24 6 6 32 14 103.0 120 60 14 35 68 85 A.J. Burnett R 35 5.31 9 10 28 27 159.3 170 94 25 70 128 84 David Phelps R 25 5.40 6 7 23 22 121.7 148 73 18 39 73 83 Manny Banuelos L 21 5.45 7 8 25 25 115.7 128 70 15 65 85 82 Dellin Betances R 24 5.66 5 7 24 24 105.0 111 66 15 72 85 79 D.J. Mitchell R 25 6.03 8 11 26 23 134.3 167 90 19 71 69 74 Andrew Brackman R 26 6.89 5 9 31 17 98.0 121 75 16 73 57 65 Steve Garrison L 25 7.45 3 7 18 14 67.7 96 56 16 25 27 60 Kei Igawa L 32 7.53 2 4 20 9 63.3 83 53 15 40 35 59 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ David Robertson R 27 3.06 4 2 69 0 64.7 50 22 5 34 87 146 Mariano Rivera R 42 3.12 3 1 53 0 49.0 44 17 4 10 43 143 Rafael Soriano R 32 3.14 4 2 67 0 63.0 50 22 6 21 74 142 Joba Chamberlain R 26 3.88 3 2 46 0 46.3 43 20 5 14 45 115 Boone Logan L 27 3.91 4 2 62 0 48.3 46 21 5 17 48 114 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Pedro Feliciano L 35 4.30 2 1 33 0 23.0 24 11 2 10 18 104 Brian Gordon R 33 4.55 3 2 23 7 63.3 69 32 8 16 45 98 Cory Wade R 29 4.61 4 4 47 0 56.7 62 29 8 13 37 97 Luis Ayala R 34 4.62 4 3 44 0 50.7 56 26 6 19 32 96 Sergio Mitre R 31 5.08 1 1 26 2 44.3 49 25 6 17 22 88 Buddy Carlyle R 34 5.49 2 3 31 2 41.0 46 25 7 20 27 81 Kevin Whelan R 28 5.55 3 4 46 0 47.0 50 29 7 30 37 80 Damaso Marte L 37 5.56 0 0 19 0 11.3 12 7 2 6 8 80 Eric Wordekemper R 28 5.88 2 3 45 0 52.0 63 34 8 25 29 76 George Kontos R 27 5.93 3 4 38 3 68.3 78 45 14 30 48 75 Logan Kensing R 29 6.07 1 2 38 0 43.0 52 29 8 18 29 73 Amaury Sanit R 32 6.98 1 2 17 2 29.7 38 23 6 15 18 64 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Derek Jeter .307 .376 .438 2727 11147 1944 3425 543 74 256 1330 1090 1839 368 113 Alex Rodriguez .295 .378 .549 2833 10847 2052 3197 573 33 705 2200 1335 2243 328 138 Robinson Cano .295 .337 .484 2408 9421 1347 2778 598 71 348 1466 537 1085 72 113 Mark Teixeira .272 .361 .506 2183 8352 1319 2271 499 24 469 1569 1065 1571 31 124 Andruw Jones .254 .337 .484 2330 8005 1260 2035 405 36 455 1358 942 1847 161 110 Curtis Granderson .258 .336 .478 1984 7479 1305 1931 321 129 354 1075 837 1755 197 111 Jorge Posada .271 .371 .470 1980 6561 949 1775 401 10 295 1132 993 1566 21 119 Nick Swisher .251 .353 .451 1798 6330 971 1591 358 15 292 974 967 1518 16 111 Russell Martin .256 .348 .383 1630 5652 788 1448 245 7 153 751 739 911 137 93 Eric Chavez .266 .341 .471 1418 5065 759 1347 295 21 234 829 588 984 47 112 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ CC Sabathia 293 171 0 3.66 590 591 4000 3833 1628 368 1211 3349 121 Freddy Garcia 173 123 0 4.26 407 400 2495 2538 1182 313 792 1715 105 Bartolo Colon 168 118 0 4.19 373 367 2321 2343 1082 295 781 1773 109 A.J. Burnett 126 113 0 4.17 328 321 2039 1872 945 216 862 1852 103 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Robinson Cano 2B 65% 15% 10% 7% 3% Buddy Bell Lou Whitaker Chasey Utley Mark Teixeira 1B 27% 32% 17% 16% 8% Don Mincher Paul Konerko Eddie Murray Curtis Granderson CF 51% 19% 18% 9% 3% Brady Anderson Andy Van Slyke Mike Cameron Alex Rodriguez 3B 34% 28% 18% 13% 8% Bob Elliott Ken Caminiti Ken Boyer Jesus Montero C 46% 29% 14% 8% 3% Todd Zeile Mike Sweeney Mike Bishop Nick Swisher RF 19% 26% 18% 17% 20% Ken Henderson Jeff Burroughs J.T. Snow Andruw Jones LF 20% 19% 14% 14% 33% Jeff Manto Jay Buhner Eddie Williams Brett Gardner LF 10% 18% 16% 19% 37% Rudy Law Eddie Milner Brett Butler Russell Martin C 9% 22% 37% 24% 9% Al Lopez Adam Melhuse Chris Cannizzaro Jorge Posada 1B 4% 10% 11% 22% 54% Kevin Millar Roy Smalley Bob Brenly Eduardo Nunez SS 8% 15% 22% 25% 30% William Bergolla John Wehner Rico Rossy Derek Jeter SS 8% 11% 23% 29% 29% Omar Vizquel Pie Traynor Luke Appling Justin Maxwell LF 3% 10% 11% 14% 62% Brad Komminsk Dante Powell Joe Hicks Jorge Vazquez 1B 0% 2% 5% 16% 78% Juan Diaz Jason Dubois Terrel Hansen Jordan Parraz RF 0% 2% 4% 10% 84% Dan Peltier Jordan Czarniecki Chris Nowak Terry Tiffee 1B 1% 2% 4% 13% 81% Larry Biittner Glenn Adams Dusty Wathan Brandon Laird 3B 0% 3% 8% 16% 72% Casey Webster Travis Hanson Scott Coolbaugh David Adams 2B 3% 6% 9% 15% 68% Pat Kelly Omar Infante Gene Freese Gary Sanchez C 12% 13% 12% 16% 47% Todd Pratt Steve Lomasney Jeff Winchester Mike Lamb 1B 1% 1% 1% 2% 97% Larry Biittner Joe Orsulak Mark Kotsay Austin Romine C 2% 3% 8% 25% 63% Maxim St. Pierre Hector Gimenez Pete Beeler Chris Dickerson CF 3% 5% 13% 19% 59% Gary Pettis Reggie Williams Damon Mashore Francisco CervelliC 3% 11% 12% 19% 55% Larry Gonzales Clay Hill Kirt Manwaring Corban Joseph 2B 2% 2% 6% 13% 77% Donnie Murphy Glenn Hubbard Nelson Johnson Greg Golson CF 0% 1% 5% 16% 78% Tommy Murphy Camilo Veras Herm Winningham Kevin Russo 2B 1% 1% 3% 10% 84% Herman Iribarren Fred Manrique Marty Malloy Jose Gil C 3% 6% 9% 17% 64% Jeff Winchester Rob Bowen Matt Garrick Ramiro Pena SS 2% 3% 9% 17% 69% Pat Osborn Joe Dunlap Joey Aragon Eric Chavez 3B 2% 0% 1% 3% 95% Wes Helms Jason Wood Dave McKay Gustavo Molina C 1% 3% 2% 6% 89% Charlie Greene Pedro Grifol Dane Sardinha Colin Curtis LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Scott Seal Jess Graham Sean Drinkwater Melky Mesa CF 0% 0% 1% 5% 93% Darren Blakely Gerald Williams Jeff Doerr Slade Heathcott CF 2% 1% 3% 5% 89% Mel Hall Kevin Wiggins Shawn Jeter Doug Bernier SS 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Ray Oyler Brandon Chaves Pablo Martinez Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 David Robertson RP 77% 18% 5% Mark Littell Jim Kern Bryan Harvey Mariano Rivera RP 73% 22% 5% Trevor Hoffman Larry Andersen Doug Jones Rafael Soriano RP 67% 28% 5% Joe Nathan Rich Gossage Robb Nen CC Sabathia SP 84% 11% 5% Billy Pierce Lefty Gomez Frank Viola Joba Chamberlain RP 41% 45% 13% Mike Connolly Danny Patterson Heath Haynes Boone Logan RP 40% 45% 15% Mike Gonzalez Scott Stewart Mark Guthrie Pedro Feliciano RP 38% 35% 26% Tony Fossas Mike Magnante Vic Darensbourg Ivan Nova SP 30% 59% 10% Jimmy Jones Tommy Boggs Storm Davis Brian Gordon RP 16% 41% 43% Gil Heredia Terry Clark Terry Leach Cory Wade RP 12% 46% 41% Joseph Haines Jeff Tam Julio Mateo Luis Ayala RP 18% 37% 45% Todd Williams Rodney Myers Bryan Corey Bartolo Colon SP 17% 49% 35% Jon Lieber Doug Linton Mike Morgan Phil Hughes SP 13% 54% 34% Tommy Greene Juan Acevedo Adam Eaton Freddy Garcia SP 14% 54% 32% Aaron Small Dick Ruthven Kevin Tapani Sergio Mitre RP 11% 36% 54% Bryan Corey Todd Erdos Steve Comer Hector Noesi SP 1% 23% 76% Troy Dixon Rick Davis Jamie Vermilyea A.J. Burnett SP 3% 36% 61% Hideo Nomo Jack Morris Jim Clancy David Phelps SP 3% 33% 64% Ramiro Mendoza Chien-Ming Wang Nate Cornejo Manny Banuelos SP 3% 33% 64% Brandon Claussen Juan Ovalles Jon Lester Buddy Carlyle RP 5% 19% 75% Jason Childers David Lee Darrin Babineaux Kevin Whelan RP 2% 19% 80% Doug Robertson Franklyn German Matt Palmer Damaso Marte RP 17% 13% 70% Dave Righetti Mike Fetters Vic Darensbourg Dellin Betances SP 2% 25% 74% John Ericks Shawn Chacon Everett Stull Eric Wordekemper RP 1% 13% 86% John Koronka Cary Hiles Greg Bauer George Kontos RP 0% 8% 91% Ross Powell Mark Ohlms Jarrett Grube D.J. Mitchell SP 0% 8% 92% Clint Sodowsky Carlos Paredes Jared Wells Logan Kensing RP 1% 10% 89% Roman Colon Julio Manon Milt Hill Andrew Brackman SP 0% 1% 99% Keith Davis Jon Leicester Jose Segura Amaury Sanit RP 1% 5% 95% Elmer Riddle Jason Childers Mike Sullivan Steve Garrison SP 0% 1% 99% Jon Connolly Craig Anderson Sam Narron Kei Igawa SP 0% 1% 99% Roger Deago Ken Ray Chris Michalak Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Robinson Cano 46% 13% 50% 38% 7% 29% 17% 0% Mark Teixeira 7% 27% 47% 3% 0% 66% 21% 0% Curtis Granderson 3% 15% 43% 0% 34% 57% 16% 3% Alex Rodriguez 9% 20% 31% 0% 0% 6% 13% 1% Jesus Montero 9% 6% 38% 17% 3% 40% 9% 0% Nick Swisher 2% 28% 22% 0% 0% 18% 11% 0% Andruw Jones 2% 11% 27% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% Brett Gardner 3% 18% 1% 0% 28% 0% 1% 92% Russell Martin 1% 8% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% Jorge Posada 2% 8% 8% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% Eduardo Nunez 9% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 11% Derek Jeter 7% 4% 3% 0% 1% 2% 1% 2% Justin Maxwell 0% 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% Jorge Vazquez 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% Jordan Parraz 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Terry Tiffee 13% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Brandon Laird 0% 0% 3% 0% 1% 7% 0% 0% David Adams 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gary Sanchez 0% 0% 15% 0% 0% 5% 2% 0% Mike Lamb 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Austin Romine 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Chris Dickerson 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Francisco Cervelli 5% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Corban Joseph 0% 1% 1% 3% 15% 1% 0% 0% Greg Golson 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 3% Kevin Russo 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Jose Gil 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Ramiro Pena 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Eric Chavez 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Gustavo Molina 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Colin Curtis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Melky Mesa 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 4% Slade Heathcott 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% Doug Bernier 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 David Robertson 75% 94% 98% 0% 85% Mariano Rivera 68% 94% 38% 73% 77% Rafael Soriano 70% 94% 98% 6% 68% CC Sabathia 50% 93% 42% 11% 82% Joba Chamberlain 33% 82% 71% 15% 58% Boone Logan 31% 79% 73% 7% 55% Pedro Feliciano 27% 63% 20% 8% 87% Ivan Nova 6% 62% 1% 3% 57% Brian Gordon 12% 50% 7% 36% 47% Cory Wade 9% 51% 2% 57% 30% Luis Ayala 14% 48% 5% 7% 63% Bartolo Colon 3% 35% 4% 18% 20% Phil Hughes 2% 33% 12% 1% 21% Freddy Garcia 3% 33% 0% 9% 28% Sergio Mitre 11% 39% 0% 9% 48% Hector Noesi 0% 16% 0% 3% 25% A.J. Burnett 0% 12% 13% 0% 12% David Phelps 0% 10% 0% 5% 27% Manny Banuelos 0% 10% 4% 0% 37% Buddy Carlyle 4% 19% 5% 1% 38% Kevin Whelan 1% 15% 19% 0% 29% Damaso Marte 17% 30% 15% 12% 47% Dellin Betances 0% 7% 18% 0% 27% Eric Wordekemper 0% 7% 0% 1% 38% George Kontos 0% 6% 3% 0% 9% D.J. Mitchell 0% 1% 0% 0% 29% Logan Kensing 1% 8% 5% 3% 19% Andrew Brackman 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% Amaury Sanit 1% 3% 3% 2% 15% Steve Garrison 0% 0% 0% 3% 4% Kei Igawa 0% 1% 2% 0% 7% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive
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1. SG Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:21 PM (#3973231)I'm not sure about how Av/143 compares to Fair/67 but does it mean that ZiPS thinks Eduardo NunEz is a better starting SS option than Derek Jeter in 2012?
EDIT: Lester as the 3rd comp for Banuelos is interesting.
I guess this means the Yanks spend a zillion bucks on Darvish.
Within the realm of Diamond Mind Baseball, yes.
Grandy's projections surprise me a bit. I can't put my finger on it, but for some reason I see him as a guy that will occasionally suffer a Dunn-like god awful season now and then. Probably won't be til after he's left the Yanks and has signed with the Royals.
offensively or better.
Yeah, but only Cano would be an above average fielder at first. /ducks
On first glance it seems that way, but you have to remember the new offensive environment. My projections look very similar although they're not nearly ready yet, and I had the same thought when I first looked at them. They just seemed low across the board.
Here are the collective AL batting lines over the last four years(minus pitchers & pinch-hitters).
2008_AL: .268/.334/.421
2009_AL: .267/.335/.429
2010_AL: .260/.326/.407
2011_AL: .259/.322/.409
Take Teixeira's 2012 projection of .263/.359/.495 as an example. It's roughly equal to a .272/.372/.510 in 2008 and .271/.373/.519 in 2009.
Yeah, mortal Rodriguez for $32M a year stinks.
They probably need someone they'd feel comfortable playing every day at 3B on the bench, because I'd be more surprised than not if Rodriguez exceeds those projected PA. I don't think Nunez is that guy, since 3B do have to field grounders once in a while.
Like you, I think Granderson will exceed that projection, and maybe Cano, but the rest of the projections all look like about what I'd expect. They can win with that offense, but they really need to beef up that rotation.
Is that contract really an albatross, though? Will it hold them back from signing Darvish, e.g.? And he's still a better 3B than most.
No, he's not actively hurting the team and he's still an asset to have. The problem is you probably have to assume he'll miss at least 40 games a year now.
I am almost certain that Darvish is going to end up on a team that no one suspects. Nationals, Blue Jays, White Sox. Someone like that.
I doubt it stops them from signing Darvish*. At the moment, 2013 looks like the ugly year in Yankee-land: They have nearly $100 million committed that year to Rodriguez, Jeter, Burnett, Soriano and Teixeira. So that could be pretty bad. On the other hand, more than $44 million of that goes away after that season, so if they're willing to either take a one-year hit or do some silliness with the backloading of contracts, they can probably work around it.
*Whcih is not to say they are a lock to sign Darvish, just that finances won't stop them.
Chasey?
Those odds are given the expected AB - ZiPS is mostly soured on A-Rod's durability.
Couple of requests, if you don't mind: Dan Brewer and Pat Venditte.
Jesus Montero's comps are funny, then intriguing, then sad. The funny part is Montero being compared to two young catchers who went on to respectable careers as first basemen.
The intriguing, then sad part is Michael Bishop. This is a kid who managed a 1000 OPS between his age 20 and 21 seasons, back in 1980. A very fair comp for Montero, by the numbers. He was playing in the California, Texas, and Pacific Coast Leagues, which I understand were about as hitter-friendly back then as they are now, but given the era, those are great numbers. The Angels appear to have been unable to pick a position for him, as he put up those numbers while filling in at 3B, 1B, OF, and C. Bishop had a weaker but still solid enough year as a 22-year-old in AAA (800 OPS while playing four positions), and when the Angels committed to him as a catcher in 1982, he posted a good 875 OPS. Somehow Bishop never even managed a call-up, and he signed as a minor league free agent with the Mets in 1983.
The Mets continued the trend of jerking Bishop around - he was demoted to double-A and shifted back to 1B. He destroyed AA pitching for Jackson, but his callup to AAA coincided with a move back behind the plate for whatever reason. Bishop struggled in Tidewater and did little with his cup of coffee in the majors. That's where the records end.
As best as I can tell, Bishop disappears from baseball after 1983, despite being just 24 years old, with a solid to quite impressive minor league record. I tried searching for a NPB record for Bishop - a good bat who perhaps didn't have a position and certainly didn't get a fair chance seems like the sort of guy who would have tried out Japanese baseball in the 1980s, but I can find no record of him playing baseball after '83.
Baseball-reference has a note saying that Bishop died in Bakersfield, CA in 2005, at the age of 46. That's really sad. I thought I'd be able to find a record of Bishop through an obituary, but I'm getting zip from Google or Lexis-Nexis.
Does anyone remember what happened to Michael Bishop?
Not sure about it, but I didn't think you could backload posting fees. I thought it was all up front. May be wrong though.
Andruw!
Jesus! If he really is a FR at C, then he's a major asset.
Romine! Look at that comp list -- Maxim St. Pierre!
Swisher. :-( That comp list (and projection) suggests the end is nigh. Henderson and Burroughs ended at 34 and didn't top 500 PA ages 31-34; Snow lasted longer but never topped 500 PA after 32. It's easy to see Swisher lasting as long as Snow (or Kevin Millar say) given he can play a decent 1B and is a switch-hitter but he'll be pretty marginal pretty soon.
Blasphemy! Is this the first time Mariano is not the top projected reliever in baseball? Not even tops on his own team. Time to upgrade the software.
Betances?? He's touted as a pretty prized prospect around these parts but a 5.60 ERA for a 24-year-old doesn't sound too impressive to me.
Nitpick: Bell seems odd as Cano's #1 comp. Bell never hit for anything like that kind of power. He did have a big year (OPS+ wise) at 28 but wasn't in Cano's league at 26 and 27. I know there aren't a lot of 2B that match Cano's profile so it's not surprising that ZiPS went outside the box but a moderate power 3B seems an odd choice. Even the crappy sims at b-r turn up Brett (too good at those ages), Torre (just about right) and David Wright (too many walks and that plunging BA thing). Positionally, Vidro or Alomar would seem better comps than Bell; non-positionally Yount or Bernie Williams (too many walks).
* interesting stuff = trivial bits I noticed
Those catcher ratings are just for throwing, not overall defense.
I didn't miss that (or Andruw), and that was the same word I thought of using. But since I couldn't think of anything else funny too say, I didn't bother...
He's no Blast Hardcheese.
Greg, email me and I can give you something to play with.
DSzymborski@gmail.com
Well, depends how many playoff teams Bud is letting in! Jokes aside, I would guess the Yankees make a real effort at improving their rotation one way or another.
I didn't realize there was pitch-by-pitch play-by-play! Endless fun.
It would be really great if, instead of switching to random draw, Dan started deciding different odd sets of criteria like that each season to determine the order.
That would have been his nickname 100 years ago.
I wouldn't be so sure about that, have you seen the Orioles the last decade+?
Sigh.
Jeter's defensive projection (Fr) surprised me, and so does his offensive projection (82 OPS+). I guess ZiPS sees Jeter cratering after all.
I see ZiPS thinks ARod's decline is here to stay. I still see a couple more big seasons from him. Don't know when they'll come.
By reputation, the defensive ratings for Teixeira/Cano/ARod would seem to be better than AV. Especially the first two.
I personally enjoy that Freddy Garcia's #1 comp is Aaron Small.
If Dan is doing the list, that'd be Baltimore
And if Yankee fans are doing the list, they might agree, since the Birds put the "over" in "It's over".
I frequently confuse him with Chasey Lain, too.
Primey.
Or if he'd played for Bobby Cox.
then what's there to discuss?
Not happening. That's three more productive years.
Jeter has 3088 hits, so the ZiPS mark is only 337 hits away -- not that far for a guy who hit .331 after coming off the DL last year, and possibly achievable in less than 3 full seasons.
That, or some kind of horrible slur against the ethnic or the disabled.
Or the hockey nickname, according to the hockey nickname algorithm:
1) Add -y to the first or first and second syllables of the last name unless
2) Last name ends in a -y, then use rule 1 on the first name.
3) If first and last name end in -y, don't allow him to play hockey.
Cameron's not a particularly good writer, and he doesn't love language, so I tend not to put much stock in his pronouncements when he veers into the oracular. Still, it's a mystifying assertion on any level.
You're absolutely right. I made two stupid mistakes. For no good reason I recalled Jeter had something like 3028 hits, not 3088, and I didn't recall how well he hit late in the season. While a lot of folks claim that pre and post break (for instance) splits aren't predictive, I don't agree, especially not for older players, or injured players. His good performance late in the season increases the likelihood of a decent seasons in 2012 (and beyond), according to my special tool.
edit: I'm helping a friend who's a pro se plaintiff anticipate issues wrt getting recorded conversations between himself and one other person admitted into evidence. Can any lawyers out there commend me to a treatise on such?
A prediction is saying "this will happen", a projection is sayong "considering all the things that possibly could happen, and the likelihood of each, this is the average".
Edit: Pre-game beer related typos.
Projection: "4. A prediction or an estimate of something in the future, based on present data or trends."
Prediction "Noun 1. prediction prediction - the act of predicting (as by reasoning about the future) anticipation, prevision abstract thought, logical thinking, reasoning - thinking that is coherent and logical; syn. projection - a prediction made by extrapolating from past observations
Those aren't the same thing.
Federal Law requires only one-party consent, so my guess (which may not be worth much) at this point is that it's acceptable to record and effectively offer into evidence calls between a one-party and two-party state, though I imagine case law for this includes a lot of fussing. Don't know if any of the above should affect my friend's decision about which court (federal or state) to file his complaint in.
The pertinent section afaik is Federal Rules of Evidence, Title 18 Part 1 Ch. 119 funnysquigglething 2511, which reads
So, tortious is an interesting choice of words there, but doesn't seem to mean "tort-related", but rather, along the lines of "wrongdoing". So that might put my pal in the clear.
You predicted 150 wins for the yankees, bunch of crap!!!
and 147 losses
315 game starts
352 homers allowed
:-)
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