User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 1.1070 seconds
58 querie(s) executed
|
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
| ||||||||
Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Sunday, October 30, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia PhilliesNot a whole lot of surprises here. A ton of hitters that played in the organization get projected this year, mostly because the team employed a massive number of semi-familiar names this year. Brent Clevlen! Rich Thompson! Tagg Bozied! A lot of the minors looked a bit like the 2004 waiver wire in your fantasy baseball league.
The starting pitching made up for a lot of sins in the form of an overrated offense and should continue to do so, even if they can’t bring Roy Oswalt back at a reduced salary. Blanton or Kendrick won’t pitch anywhere near as well as Vance Worley did, but those are still good numbers for 5th starters. Going back to the offense, the team was only 7th in the NL runs scored in a hitter’s park, which should be a pretty good indication that the Phils had one of the top rotations of the last half-century given that they won 102 games. The offense won’t get better - Hunter Pence does have a full season, but he’s a good, not great player, Domonic Brown is in the same category at the moment, and every other starter is on the part of the aging curve that would make the good starting point on a killer sledding hill.
The team doesn’t have a whole lot of depth, but that’s understandable as they’ve rightfully traded a lot of talent to try and get the team over the top. They disappointed in the playoffs, but it was still the right idea.
The interesting storyline to watch in the long-term is how Ruben Amaro and the organization transition from the current dynasty to a future one, an inflection point that the pitching can’t hold off forever.
Next Up: New York Mets
Oracle on Twitter
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Chase Utley L 2B 33 .265 .362 .448 122 460 71 122 23 5 17 65 54 74 15 1 116 Shane Victorino B CF 31 .274 .342 .450 145 576 91 158 29 12 16 68 53 73 23 7 110 Ryan Howard L 1B 32 .248 .335 .485 144 540 79 134 26 3 32 113 67 173 2 1 117 Domonic Brown L RF 24 .273 .330 .465 148 495 71 135 26 6 19 82 44 135 19 10 110 Hunter Pence R RF 29 .281 .334 .450 156 605 85 170 31 4 21 95 49 115 12 7 108 Jimmy Rollins B SS 33 .268 .330 .410 126 515 74 138 26 4 13 62 48 53 25 6 97 Carlos Ruiz R C 33 .269 .360 .383 120 368 41 99 22 1 6 42 46 47 1 1 100 Jack Cust L DH 33 .232 .357 .403 107 357 52 83 17 1 14 55 68 128 1 1 104 Ben Francisco R RF 30 .256 .331 .414 107 297 36 76 18 1 9 43 30 58 7 3 99 Raul Ibanez L LF 40 .255 .307 .430 134 495 61 126 30 3 17 80 39 97 3 1 95 John Mayberry R CF 28 .246 .300 .427 138 447 57 110 26 2 17 62 32 111 11 3 93 Matt Rizzotti L 1B 26 .252 .331 .391 137 496 53 125 28 1 13 62 57 150 2 1 93 John Bowker L LF 28 .255 .311 .410 141 459 59 117 23 3 14 71 37 102 4 3 92 Placido Polanco R 3B 36 .278 .324 .364 124 500 59 139 21 2 6 54 32 43 4 1 84 Erik Kratz R C 32 .237 .307 .395 96 337 41 80 20 0 11 45 28 80 2 1 87 Brandon Moss L LF 28 .233 .302 .416 143 481 61 112 28 3 18 76 45 140 5 6 90 Jeff Larish L 1B 29 .225 .310 .395 99 334 39 75 16 1 13 43 39 106 2 2 88 Ross Gload L 1B 36 .263 .304 .369 96 160 16 42 8 0 3 18 9 24 1 0 80 Rich Thompson L CF 33 .242 .299 .341 125 455 62 110 19 7 4 33 29 86 28 3 71 Scott Podsednik L CF 36 .264 .311 .352 89 341 40 90 13 4 3 25 23 56 17 7 77 Michael Spidale R LF 30 .282 .319 .344 133 489 56 138 15 3 3 36 20 70 17 9 78 Kevin Frandsen R 2B 30 .262 .311 .359 109 393 47 103 19 2 5 43 15 39 6 3 79 Tagg Bozied R 1B 32 .224 .305 .401 80 277 34 62 17 1 10 36 29 93 1 3 88 Brent Clevlen R RF 28 .238 .299 .377 88 324 39 77 14 2 9 42 28 112 5 2 80 Matt Miller R RF 29 .256 .315 .343 97 367 42 94 16 2 4 61 30 68 2 1 77 Freddy Galvis B SS 22 .261 .299 .359 156 602 74 157 26 6 7 49 30 113 19 10 76 Harold Garcia B 2B 25 .252 .298 .356 78 317 32 80 12 3 5 27 15 90 17 8 75 Delwyn Young B RF 30 .233 .284 .368 127 361 39 84 20 1 9 43 23 93 1 0 73 Sebastian Valle R C 21 .243 .273 .381 128 493 46 120 25 2 13 62 20 144 1 1 73 Steve Singleton B 2B 26 .248 .284 .366 147 552 65 137 34 5 7 51 23 77 4 6 73 Brian Schneider L C 35 .233 .309 .327 54 159 15 37 6 0 3 18 17 33 0 0 71 Carlos Rivero R 3B 24 .242 .287 .353 148 563 59 136 29 2 10 63 35 132 3 3 71 Wilson Valdez R 2B 34 .253 .298 .336 106 304 38 77 13 3 2 31 19 42 4 3 70 Cory Sullivan L LF 32 .239 .306 .315 74 197 24 47 8 2 1 26 20 35 4 1 67 Joe Savery L P 26 .256 .301 .327 61 156 13 40 6 1 1 13 10 30 0 1 69 Cesar Hernandez B 2B 22 .259 .300 .312 129 474 50 123 11 4 2 36 26 95 25 12 65 Joel Naughton L C 25 .241 .285 .328 50 174 17 42 6 0 3 22 11 40 0 0 64 Pete Orr L 3B 33 .229 .277 .336 131 437 48 100 19 5 6 38 22 92 15 7 64 Terry Evans R RF 30 .219 .264 .346 110 379 47 83 20 2 8 42 19 117 11 4 62 Michael Martinez B 3B 29 .231 .277 .339 108 351 42 81 13 5 5 42 20 66 9 6 64 Josh Barfield R 2B 29 .246 .268 .345 110 403 38 99 19 3 5 44 13 67 8 6 63 Ronnie Belliard R 3B 37 .229 .283 .319 63 188 24 43 9 1 2 21 14 38 2 1 61 Jiwan James B CF 23 .241 .288 .325 154 631 83 152 27 7 4 48 36 170 26 21 64 Tuffy Gosewisch R C 28 .228 .282 .330 106 364 34 83 19 0 6 38 22 82 1 4 63 Ozzie Chavez B SS 28 .232 .282 .303 89 297 28 69 10 1 3 27 19 65 4 5 57 Dane Sardinha R C 33 .184 .250 .274 58 179 17 33 7 0 3 12 14 62 0 0 41 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Chase Utley VG/90 Shane Victorino Ryan Howard FR/122 Domonic Brown AV/164 AV/164 Hunter Pence AV/98 Jimmy Rollins AV/58 Carlos Ruiz AV Jack Cust PO/110 PO/110 Ben Francisco AV/90 PO/84 FR/95 Raul Ibanez PO/58 John Mayberry FR/104 VG/69 FR/105 AV/56 Matt Rizzotti FR/124 John Bowker AV/122 VG/128 AV/101 Placido Polanco VG/40 VG/56 Erik Kratz AV FR/114 Brandon Moss AV/102 FR/95 FR/82 Jeff Larish FR/73 PO/101 PO/109 Ross Gload FR/93 PO/124 Rich Thompson VG/90 VG/92 VG/84 Scott Podsednik AV/65 FR/124 FR/119 Michael Spidale AV/72 PO/114 PO/113 Kevin Frandsen FR/103 AV/90 AV/109 FR/116 Tagg Bozied FR/111 PO/117 FR/125 FR/117 Brent Clevlen AV/119 AV/97 VG/186 Matt Miller AV/95 PO/118 FR/92 Freddy Galvis AV/119 AV/89 Harold Garcia FR/101 FR/109 Delwyn Young FR/98 FR/112 AV/112 FR/144 Sebastian Valle AV Steve Singleton AV/99 FR/111 PO/104 Brian Schneider FR Carlos Rivero FR/115 AV/143 FR/120 Wilson Valdez FR/89 FR/100 AV/65 AV/116 FR/119 AV/117 Cory Sullivan AV/82 FR/72 AV/111 Joe Savery AV/101 FR/114 Cesar Hernandez FR/120 Joel Naughton FR Pete Orr AV/100 AV/78 FR/95 AV/114 FR/91 AV/90 Terry Evans PO/103 PO/103 FR/109 Michael Martinez AV/175 FR/97 FR/115 AV/114 FR/114 AV/116 Josh Barfield VG/102 AV/113 AV/89 FR/112 Ronnie Belliard AV/115 FR/99 AV/101 Jiwan James AV/86 AV/95 AV/86 Tuffy Gosewisch AV Ozzie Chavez AV/137 AV/115 AV/95 AV/98 FR/146 Dane Sardinha AV Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Cliff Lee L 33 2.83 16 7 29 29 210.0 187 66 17 34 200 140 Roy Halladay R 35 2.83 17 7 28 28 209.7 194 66 16 32 186 140 Cole Hamels L 28 3.30 14 8 31 31 199.0 177 73 22 47 187 120 Roy Oswalt R 34 3.68 10 7 25 25 154.0 150 63 14 39 114 108 Vance Worley R 24 3.85 11 9 32 29 168.3 164 72 17 57 137 103 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Kyle Kendrick R 27 4.41 8 8 31 21 134.7 143 66 17 38 66 90 Joe Blanton R 31 4.43 5 5 19 18 107.7 114 53 15 28 84 90 Austin Hyatt R 26 4.73 7 8 26 22 120.0 124 63 16 53 105 84 Tim Redding R 34 4.88 5 6 19 16 94.0 108 51 11 31 55 81 Eddie Bonine R 31 4.90 3 4 24 9 68.0 81 37 8 18 36 81 Trevor May R 22 5.01 8 10 26 25 125.7 119 70 15 94 135 79 David Bush R 32 5.24 5 7 25 19 110.0 126 64 17 36 68 76 Ryan Edell L 28 5.24 6 8 27 21 127.0 158 74 17 30 77 76 Jonathan PettiboneR 21 5.28 7 11 25 25 133.0 150 78 19 53 73 75 Brian Bass R 30 5.30 5 7 35 12 103.7 123 61 11 45 61 75 Nate Bump R 35 5.58 4 6 18 18 92.0 121 57 11 24 35 71 J.C. Ramirez R 23 5.60 7 12 24 24 127.0 151 79 16 59 71 71 Brody Colvin R 21 5.78 4 8 24 23 113.7 138 73 15 56 63 69 Tyson Brummett R 27 5.87 4 7 35 12 96.7 124 63 13 37 51 68 Ryan Feierabend L 26 5.92 5 10 25 22 117.0 146 77 20 39 60 67 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Ryan Madson R 31 3.00 5 2 62 0 60.0 52 20 5 17 63 132 Antonio Bastardo L 26 3.17 4 2 58 0 48.3 37 17 5 21 59 126 Justin De Fratus R 24 3.64 4 3 55 0 71.7 65 29 7 29 70 109 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Brad Lidge R 35 3.69 1 1 37 0 31.7 28 13 3 16 33 108 Michael Schwimer R 26 3.76 6 5 55 0 69.3 63 29 7 29 71 106 Jose Contreras R 40 3.86 2 2 32 0 28.0 27 12 3 10 24 103 Phillippe Aumont R 23 3.86 4 3 46 0 53.7 48 23 5 28 55 103 Michael Stutes R 25 4.25 5 5 61 0 72.0 65 34 8 40 68 94 David Herndon R 26 4.36 3 3 52 0 66.0 69 32 7 24 44 91 Joe Savery L 26 4.41 3 3 42 0 51.0 54 25 5 18 34 90 Danys Baez R 34 4.70 3 3 39 0 44.0 46 23 5 17 27 84 Les Walrond L 35 4.82 3 3 30 0 37.3 37 20 4 24 31 82 Michael Cisco R 25 4.87 4 5 30 0 57.3 54 31 7 39 43 82 Scott Mathieson R 28 4.97 2 3 37 6 63.3 63 35 9 38 55 80 Juan Perez L 33 5.05 3 3 42 0 41.0 39 23 6 28 41 79 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Jimmy Rollins .268 .323 .419 2431 10157 1508 2718 539 122 253 1101 811 1136 506 94 Placido Polanco .297 .341 .398 2000 7673 1076 2276 367 36 114 800 454 575 88 94 Chase Utley .276 .361 .470 1938 7328 1172 2022 402 66 296 1113 755 1136 188 117 Raul Ibanez .277 .338 .466 2045 7231 1030 2004 428 48 280 1188 667 1281 49 110 Hunter Pence .281 .332 .454 1763 6860 915 1926 354 53 242 1004 527 1228 130 109 Ryan Howard .261 .347 .509 1859 6971 1044 1821 338 33 441 1448 877 2044 24 123 Carlos Ruiz .262 .347 .376 1346 4145 442 1087 245 6 71 473 472 488 19 93 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Roy Halladay 283 144 1 3.21 553 527 3802 3671 1358 318 726 2993 134 Cliff Lee 221 126 0 3.46 459 454 3102 3000 1191 300 646 2618 120 Roy Oswalt 219 147 0 3.47 505 490 3145 3083 1214 287 769 2460 120 Cole Hamels 201 139 0 3.48 485 479 3095 2799 1195 381 761 2887 118 Joe Blanton 94 87 0 4.39 302 286 1773 1898 864 220 484 1228 95 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Chase Utley 2B 81% 12% 5% 2% 1% Lou Whitaker Lonny Frey Dick McAuliffe Shane Victorino CF 44% 29% 21% 5% 1% Brian McRae Mitch Webster Steve Finley Ryan Howard 1B 14% 34% 22% 23% 8% Nick Esasky Jim Gentile Carlos Pena Domonic Brown RF 10% 29% 25% 25% 13% Lloyd Moseby Leon Durham Junior Felix Hunter Pence RF 6% 26% 26% 26% 16% Jermaine Dye Dan Ford Rondell White Jimmy Rollins SS 31% 30% 27% 13% 0% Billy Rogell Tony Fernandez Julio Lugo Carlos Ruiz C 13% 47% 28% 12% 1% Rick Ferrell Bob Boone Spud Davis Jack Cust DH 2% 13% 16% 54% 16% Dwayne Murphy J.T. Snow Pete Ward Ben Francisco RF 3% 8% 20% 35% 36% Prentice Redman Aaron Guiel Bruce Aven Raul Ibanez LF 3% 7% 16% 19% 56% Dave Parker George Hendrick Jim Bottomley John Mayberry CF 7% 8% 35% 38% 14% Mark Smith Steve Gibralter Andy Thompson Matt Rizzotti 1B 0% 2% 8% 34% 57% Lyle Overbay Mario Valdez Joe Vitiello John Bowker LF 1% 2% 6% 16% 77% Randy Braun Mike Maksudian Tim Norrid Placido Polanco 3B 1% 3% 9% 22% 66% Alvin Dark Mark Loretta David Eckstein Erik Kratz C 4% 16% 29% 37% 14% Jody Davis Tim Laker Keith McDonald Brandon Moss LF 0% 4% 4% 8% 85% John Jensen John-Ford Griffin Tyrone Woods Jeff Larish 1B 0% 1% 3% 15% 82% James Jurries Steve Neal Jay Gainer Ross Gload 1B 1% 2% 0% 6% 92% Larry Biittner Ray Knight Glenn Adams Rich Thompson CF 2% 2% 13% 40% 45% Mark Budzinski Omar Moreno Tom Goodwin Scott Podsednik CF 2% 2% 12% 28% 57% Willie Wilson Al Bumbry Andy Van Slyke Michael Spidale LF 0% 1% 1% 1% 98% Norris Hopper Jorge Padilla Alex Johnson Kevin Frandsen 2B 2% 3% 3% 18% 75% Rennie Stennett Robert Eenhoorn P.J. Forbes Tagg Bozied 1B 1% 2% 3% 13% 83% Dustan Mohr Leroy Stanton Reed Secrist Brent Clevlen RF 1% 1% 2% 6% 92% Tony Barron Chris Aguila George Hinshaw Matt Miller RF 1% 1% 1% 2% 96% Kevin Romine Jorge Padilla Joey Hammond Freddy Galvis SS 3% 4% 14% 25% 56% Alfredo Griffin Omar Infante Julio Franco Harold Garcia 2B 2% 2% 4% 7% 87% Manuel Lee Robby Thompson Ron Oester Delwyn Young RF 0% 0% 0% 2% 99% Matt Padgett Tom Nevers Paul Felix Sebastian Valle C 3% 4% 6% 22% 66% Bob Melvin Gilberto Reyes Tony Pena Steve Singleton 2B 0% 1% 1% 3% 95% Javier Colina Gary Miller-Jones Brent Butler Brian Schneider C 1% 4% 8% 21% 66% Brent Mayne Rick Cerone Jamie Quirk Carlos Rivero 3B 0% 1% 1% 7% 93% Travis Hanson Steve BuecheleChristopher Valaika Wilson Valdez 2B 0% 1% 2% 6% 92% Denny Doyle Edgar Caceres Don Blasingame Cory Sullivan LF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Ryan Fleming Ken Ramos Armando Rios Joe Savery P 0% 0% 0% 1% 100% Pete Alborano Jeff Schulz James Hoffpauir Cesar Hernandez 2B 0% 0% 2% 4% 95% Manny Lee Derrel Thomas Harry Chappas Joel Naughton C 1% 2% 3% 9% 87% Roger Hansen Mike Knapp Guillermo Garcia Pete Orr 3B 0% 0% 1% 3% 97% Dan Rohn Alfredo Griffin Tony Taylor Terry Evans RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 100% Sean Barker Mike Rosamond Colin Porter Michael Martinez 3B 1% 1% 1% 2% 96% Henry Calderon Pablo Martinez Kevin Davis Josh Barfield 2B 1% 1% 1% 0% 99% Casey Smith Chris Lemonis Joe Millette Ronnie Belliard 3B 1% 1% 2% 1% 97% Jeff Branson Pete Suder Mark Belanger Jiwan James CF 0% 0% 0% 4% 97% Elijah Bonaparte Brian McRae Cecil Espy Tuffy Gosewisch C 0% 2% 2% 4% 93% Brandon Marsters Blake Barthol Craig Tatum Ozzie Chavez SS 0% 1% 1% 2% 97% Gary Green Toby Gardenhire Luke Sable Dane Sardinha C 0% 0% 0% 1% 100% Chad Moeller Charlie Greene George Mitterwald Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Cliff Lee SP 89% 6% 5% Jeff Fassero John Smiley Mike Mussina Roy Halladay SP 90% 5% 5% Kevin Brown Greg Maddux Mike Mussina Ryan Madson RP 67% 28% 5% Rafael Betancourt J.J. Putz Jason Isringhausen Antonio Bastardo RP 57% 34% 10% Mike Gonzalez John Rocker Al Hrabosky Cole Hamels SP 71% 24% 5% Harvey Haddix C.C. Sabathia John Smiley Justin De Fratus RP 28% 53% 19% Alejandro Pena Bill Simas Jeff Innis Roy Oswalt SP 42% 52% 6% Shane Reynolds Bryn Smith Doug Drabek Brad Lidge RP 34% 33% 33% Roy Thomas Toby Borland Rudy Seanez Michael Schwimer RP 23% 55% 22% Mark Wohlers Bobby Castillo Ben Hayes Vance Worley SP 36% 55% 9% John Thomson Brad Penny Ben Sheets Jose Contreras RP 28% 42% 30% Doug Brocail Jose Mesa Roberto Hernandez Phillippe Aumont RP 23% 46% 31% Eric Cammack Saul Rivera Brian Bruney Michael Stutes RP 7% 42% 51% Billy Sadler Justin Hedrick Jack Meyer David Herndon RP 6% 36% 57% Trey Witte Jerry Spradlin Dean Crow Kyle Kendrick SP 18% 43% 39% Dennis Ribant Rollie Sheldon Tony Arnold Joe Savery RP 13% 33% 55% Dana Allison Brian Henderson Kevin Ool Joe Blanton SP 12% 47% 40% Brian Tollberg Donne Wall Hideki Irabu Danys Baez RP 10% 26% 63% Kirk Bullinger Ken Sanders Pete Center Austin Hyatt SP 5% 38% 57% John Adams Doug Walls Ryan Vogelsong Les Walrond RP 9% 25% 66% Marshall Bridges Mike Mohler Vic Darensbourg Michael Cisco RP 3% 18% 80% Joe Messman Antonio Osuna Chris Lemp Tim Redding SP 4% 29% 67% Brian Moehler Charles Nagy Pat Ahearne Eddie Bonine SP 4% 18% 77% Matt Ginter Sam Arrington Don Wengert Scott Mathieson RP 1% 16% 83% Chris Schroder Eric Newman Chris Clemons Trevor May SP 2% 24% 75% Paul Abbott Dennis Tankersley Everett Stull Juan Perez RP 3% 22% 74% Mark Davis Eddie Oropesa Tim Byrdak Chance Chapman RP 1% 16% 82% Ryan Basner John Koronka Cary Hiles David Bush SP 2% 16% 82% Allen Davis Shawn Boskie Jason Roach Ryan Edell SP 1% 14% 85% Scott Downs Heath Totten John Rheinecker Jonathan PettiboneSP 0% 12% 88% Phil Huffman Chris Mears David Pauley Brian Bass SP 0% 9% 91% Mike Bruhert Scott Randall Mike Heathcott Nate Bump SP 1% 12% 87% Tim Kester Charles Nagy Jason Johnson J.C. Ramirez SP 0% 6% 94% Omar Ortiz Jim Johnson Nick Masset Brody Colvin SP 0% 4% 96% Omar Ortiz Nick Masset Kevin Hart Tyson Brummett SP 0% 1% 99% Jeff Farnsworth Nick McCurdy Brian Stokes Ryan Feierabend SP 0% 2% 98% Mike Ramsey Evan MacLane Kerry Knox Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Chase Utley 4% 28% 15% 0% 5% 4% 8% 4% Shane Victorino 6% 4% 14% 2% 79% 2% 4% 15% Ryan Howard 1% 4% 34% 1% 4% 70% 10% 0% Domonic Brown 2% 1% 15% 0% 7% 3% 2% 8% Hunter Pence 7% 0% 10% 2% 5% 8% 0% 2% Jimmy Rollins 6% 4% 4% 0% 3% 2% 1% 22% Carlos Ruiz 4% 23% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Jack Cust 0% 18% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Ben Francisco 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Raul Ibanez 2% 0% 5% 0% 4% 2% 1% 0% John Mayberry 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 2% 0% 2% Matt Rizzotti 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% John Bowker 0% 0% 2% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% Placido Polanco 6% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Erik Kratz 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Brandon Moss 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% Jeff Larish 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ross Gload 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Rich Thompson 1% 0% 0% 0% 19% 0% 0% 35% Scott Podsednik 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 4% Michael Spidale 10% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% Kevin Frandsen 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Tagg Bozied 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Brent Clevlen 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Matt Miller 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Freddy Galvis 1% 0% 1% 4% 12% 1% 0% 10% Harold Garcia 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Delwyn Young 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Sebastian Valle 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% Steve Singleton 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% Brian Schneider 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Carlos Rivero 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% Wilson Valdez 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Cory Sullivan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Joe Savery 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Cesar Hernandez 1% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 23% Joel Naughton 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Pete Orr 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 4% Terry Evans 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Michael Martinez 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% Josh Barfield 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Ronnie Belliard 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Jiwan James 0% 0% 0% 1% 27% 0% 0% 26% Tuffy Gosewisch 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ozzie Chavez 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Dane Sardinha 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Cliff Lee 67% 94% 71% 96% 91% Roy Halladay 70% 94% 46% 98% 90% Ryan Madson 59% 93% 88% 23% 88% Antonio Bastardo 47% 86% 98% 1% 63% Cole Hamels 32% 89% 66% 41% 57% Justin De Fratus 22% 70% 73% 1% 78% Roy Oswalt 12% 72% 4% 27% 77% Brad Lidge 24% 67% 78% 1% 80% Michael Schwimer 18% 66% 85% 0% 73% Vance Worley 8% 64% 18% 2% 75% Jose Contreras 28% 60% 37% 13% 73% Phillippe Aumont 17% 54% 82% 0% 74% Michael Stutes 5% 35% 65% 0% 54% David Herndon 4% 35% 1% 4% 53% Kyle Kendrick 5% 33% 1% 20% 45% Joe Savery 9% 37% 2% 6% 75% Joe Blanton 2% 26% 12% 28% 29% Danys Baez 10% 30% 5% 7% 60% Austin Hyatt 1% 15% 43% 0% 34% Les Walrond 5% 26% 31% 0% 68% Michael Cisco 2% 15% 9% 0% 40% Tim Redding 1% 11% 1% 7% 53% Eddie Bonine 3% 18% 1% 32% 58% Scott Mathieson 1% 13% 41% 0% 35% Trevor May 0% 6% 95% 0% 47% Juan Perez 3% 19% 74% 0% 50% Chance Chapman 1% 13% 2% 2% 56% David Bush 1% 5% 2% 5% 18% Ryan Edell 0% 3% 1% 46% 35% Jonathan Pettibone 0% 2% 0% 0% 28% Brian Bass 0% 6% 3% 1% 64% Nate Bump 0% 3% 0% 28% 53% J.C. Ramirez 0% 1% 0% 0% 40% Brody Colvin 0% 0% 0% 0% 41% Tyson Brummett 0% 0% 0% 1% 35% Ryan Feierabend 0% 0% 0% 3% 9% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Cubs Red Sox Yankees
|
BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot Topics2012 ZiPS Projections, Final Edition
(23 - 11:21am, May 31) Last: craigsaboe 2012 ZiPS/RBI Baseball (20 - 10:58am, May 03) Last: tjans 2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1 (62 - 4:38pm, Apr 10) Last: nemodomi 2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A's (69 - 5:57am, Apr 10) Last: Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz 2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals (31 - 1:51pm, Mar 23) Last: hokieneer Pirates - Acquire Burnett (10 - 11:09pm, Feb 20) Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) 2012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates (41 - 10:02am, Feb 20) Last: Dangerous Dean 2012 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins (31 - 8:53pm, Feb 17) Last: A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo 2012 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox (46 - 4:41pm, Feb 17) Last: Jose is an Absurd Sultan 2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres (29 - 2:33pm, Feb 17) Last: Dan Szymborski 2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks (31 - 2:03am, Feb 14) Last: Dan Szymborski 2012 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers (21 - 12:43pm, Feb 10) Last: DEF: selfish min-maxer 2012 ZiPS Projections - Miami Marlins (31 - 8:16pm, Feb 07) Last: Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome 2012 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians (19 - 10:18pm, Feb 02) Last: DevinM 2012 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves (28 - 6:25pm, Jan 31) Last: Spahn Insane Syndicate |
|||||||
|
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| | ||||||
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Walt Davis Posted: October 30, 2011 at 06:52 AM (#3982630)So Savery used to be a pitcher and is now a position player; or he was a position player and is now a pitcher; or ZiPS is just trying to embarrass some of the guys at the bottom of the Phils organizational ladder?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Savery
Phils fans, if they don't sign a stopgap who internally is likely to get those PA ?
If they are going to sign someone who are the most likely candidates ?
We can talk about how overrated and overpaid howard is all day long but I think they will be hard pressed to get over 110 OPS+ out of first base next year (in aggregate)
Now that having been said, I really don't think Rollins is a Hall of Famer. He's drawn fewer walks than Spike Owen, Lyn Lary or Chris Speier. He's not Ozzie Smith or anything defensive. But then, do people really talk about him as a HoF candidate?
EDIT: And worse than Domonic Brown, hmmm.
i think he's on the outside looking in, but if he keeps producing for another ~5 years, he could be a viable candidate.
* I was gonna raise my annual questioning of ZiPS playing time projections for career projections as 3500 more PA seemed on the high side as a mean/median projection -- definitely of reasonable likelihood but too high for a mean. But there are 24 players who, after age 32, had 2500+ PA with 40% of their games at SS and the median of that group is between Jeter and Larkin both around 3440. Vizquel has had nearly 6000 and Smith, Ripken, Concepcion and presumably Jeter are above 3500. So ZiPS wins this round!
On the other hand, 22 players have played 80% of games at SS and had 6500+ PA through age 32 and only 4 (Ripken, Jeter, Maranville, Aparicio) had 3500+ PA afterwards so I can hang my hat on that. Limit it to those with an OPS+ of 90 or greater and it's 3 of 17. Wow, Maranville got away with a 68 OPS+ from 33 onwards (4150 PA).
As for Oswalt--what sort of contract is he likely to be offered (in general, not just from Philly)?
i think it's also likely that he's a bit burned out and might be willing to take a one year deal from a contender. maybe st louis, arizona, colorado, milwaukee, detroit, or LAA would get in the bidding if that's the case.
Could we get a projection on Cody Overbeck? Not much upside but he's a 4C type who is close to the majors.
I was also very surprised to see that ZiPS projected them to the same ERA. I tend to think of Halladay as being hands-down superior to Lee, but I guess I can't defend that as well as I would have thought when I compare their last 3-4 years.
Halladay has been hands down superior (IMO), but it's the age difference that seems to be making the projections so close.
201 wins, and a career 118 ERA+ is a little bearish? That would be a damn fine career.
Also, I expect we'll see his career projections improve a lot after the next season, since (I think) ZIPS only uses the last three years of data, so it's still seeing his 97 ERA+ 2009 season.
His OPS in the minors for 2009 to 2011 are 0.788, 0.740, and 0.729. For a 1B/corner OF, that's not going to fills ZIPS with pants-tightening offensive joy.
Not Dan, but that's where his BA and OBP were in aggregate for 2009-2010. The SLG *looks* a touch low, but like .015 or something. 2011 was all batting average spike.
Basically he's got 1500 mle PAs that say he's not a major league hitter, let alone an acceptable 1B/corner OF, and he's 369 pretty good mlb PAs, plus he was a prospect and he has a baseball name...
Gary Matthews Jr put up a 111 in his age 27 season on route to a 92 career...
So sure Mayberry may actually have a good full MLB season in his future (Sarge Jr did), but the smart money says bank 2011 and pass on the second helping
Mayberry will be no star but he'll do OK should the Phils continue to put lineups heavy on the LHB. Other teams should throw their lefty's, he seems like a good platoon match. I was more amused with him being next to Ibanez. If ever someone looked toasty I'd put Raul as Exhibit A.
I am also curious about this.
Since your projections are based on "reality," then why don't you develop your own projection system that can tap into this 2012 reality that the rest of us do not have access to? The rest of us are stuck in 2011 and can only go where the facts and evidence up to now can point us.
If you want to talk about numbers, Pence's career ISOp is .193. Apparently ZiPS thinks it will dip to .169. His career LOW is .179. That shiny .450 SLG you project, even in a low offensive environment is lower than the WORST he ever posted (.463) and considerably lower than last year's (.502 in same environment) and his career's (.485).
My point still stands, your projections are grossly lower than both his career averages, as well as as averages over the last 4 years.
Your Fangraphs still has him at 120 wRC+ for his CAREER. You are projecting a precipitous 10% drop from his career, and a 24.43% drop from 2011.
As far as your remarks about the rest of reality, I've seen you adjust projections (Hawpe?) based on reality in the past. There's not a person here who would think a 108+ is appropo in the case.
As a sim league owner, I am of course being selfish. But it's pretty apparent that this is a decent "job" of a projection by other teams in my league. We're not the pros, and we're obviously not the ones with the final say, or mathematical ability to derive a system. That said, maybe we're better off using a CBS 3 year average, as this is just off. If you can't see that Pence is off, I'm sorry. It doesn't change my high level of respect for you, but it does paint you as being obtuse in the face of fact. Again, I'm sorry, but your system is just WRONG.
It's cherrypicking when one points out the very reason for his impressive 2011 statistics?
As far as your remarks about the rest of reality, I've seen you adjust projections (Hawpe?) based on reality in the past.
I've only adjusted based on mistakes - I occasionally have someone the wrong age or park.
You keep using reality. I do not think that word means what you think it means. Or else you have a time machine.
I had this exact same argument about Ben Zobrist's projection going into 2010. And a multitude of other times.
That said, maybe we're better off using a CBS 3 year average.
Is that supposed to be some sort of threat or something? Am I supposed to cry "Sakes alive, I must change these projections that random people feel are wrong" or something? If you prefer your league play in a 2009-2011 season league, you should definitely push your commissioner to go that route.
Obtuse in the face of fact
[...]
Again, I'm sorry, but your system is just WRONG.
The facts of 2012? Where are you getting these? Are you from the future? If you already know what happened, why doesn't your league just use the 2012 season disk you already have?
I've seen Szym put up a good fight with a weak, ridiculous argument. With a solid one, the best path to overcoming him isn't to fight him, but to bore him. You can't defeat the dude by setting him up for easy zingers.
I guess there's nothing I can do but wipe the egg off my face:)
That's pretty funny.
This one deserves some kind of award, and I mean that as a compliment to both Szym and the author.
that's just one writer speculating, but i'd be satisfied with that commitment. personally, 3/24 would be my limit, but 3/30 or 4/36 isn't a bad compromise if it means rollins comes in happy and hungry.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main