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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Wednesday, November 30, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco GiantsWhile the inclusion of Carlos Beltran and to a lesser extent, Cody Ross, makes the offense look better than it is, it’s not really quite as bad as finishing last in the NL would have you believe. There’s solid front-line talent, mostly under 30 (practically a toddler by Sabean years) and the biggest problem was getting that talent to stay on the field. Thanks to injuries to the team’s two best players, one serious (Posey) and one annoying (Sandoval) and the Ghost of Outfielders Past leaving all sorts of flotsam behind leaving it hard to get Belt in the lineup when he was healthy, the Giants didn’t got a lot of at-bats from their best hitters. They also underscored their runs created by about 50 runs and though those missing runs don’t get the 2011 Giants offense to respectability, it at least sends the SWATless team and their tactical Roflcopter back to their home base.
Nobody can blame the pitching staff for the 2011 troubles - they clearly did their best and too many lousy hitters got playing time, resulting in the waste of the staff’s excellence. They should still be very good in 2012, though ZiPS is skeptical of Ryan Vogelsong, for obvious reasons. The big downside concern is the same as last year’s; the lack of starting pitcher depth in the upper minors. That turned out well in 2011 thanks to pulling Vogelsong out of a hat and continued good health from the rotation, but even with Eric Surkamp’s smooth climb in the minors, things could get very ugly fast if one of the front 3 starters hears a popping sound.
Still, as of right now, I’d put the Giants as my NL West favorites, though they remain a team with issues.
On Deck: Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Carlos Beltran B RF 35 .282 .363 .474 107 397 51 112 26 4 14 52 51 67 7 2 126 Pablo Sandoval B 3B 25 .299 .347 .497 154 572 79 171 36 4 23 86 44 82 3 4 127 Brandon Belt L LF 24 .268 .365 .452 141 485 74 130 28 5 17 67 71 129 12 7 121 Buster Posey R C 25 .287 .358 .440 130 484 71 139 25 2 15 70 49 83 4 2 116 Melky Cabrera B CF 27 .284 .330 .435 156 566 75 161 36 5 13 63 38 81 15 6 106 Aubrey Huff L 1B 35 .261 .329 .422 139 498 63 130 28 2 16 70 50 80 4 2 103 Gary Brown R CF 23 .275 .335 .398 156 621 114 171 30 11 8 64 38 94 36 18 99 Cody Ross R LF 31 .254 .317 .422 137 472 63 120 27 2 16 61 39 106 6 2 99 Nate Schierholtz L RF 28 .267 .316 .420 130 333 48 89 21 3 8 37 21 60 6 4 99 Pat Burrell R LF 35 .232 .331 .412 106 306 34 71 14 1 13 41 45 91 0 0 101 Andres Torres B CF 34 .235 .311 .394 117 383 61 90 24 5 9 34 39 106 16 5 91 Brett Pill R 1B 27 .267 .298 .412 156 600 78 160 35 2 16 87 25 87 5 4 91 Jeff Keppinger R 2B 32 .278 .321 .372 120 435 51 121 24 1 5 42 27 29 1 1 88 Freddy Sanchez R 2B 34 .273 .313 .373 93 370 44 101 20 1 5 35 20 56 2 1 86 Conor Gillaspie L 3B 24 .261 .324 .376 155 556 69 145 26 7 8 67 52 101 4 6 90 Justin Christian R LF 32 .247 .298 .355 121 462 73 114 24 4 6 43 30 68 25 5 77 Francisco Peguero R RF 24 .274 .295 .375 117 485 59 133 16 9 5 54 13 94 19 10 81 Mike Fontenot L SS 32 .245 .308 .367 108 278 30 68 16 3 4 28 25 57 3 2 83 Edgar Gonzalez R SS 34 .257 .309 .365 125 405 46 104 18 1 8 44 29 77 5 6 83 Travis Ishikawa L 1B 28 .234 .306 .368 100 261 33 61 15 1 6 31 25 76 2 2 83 Max Ramirez R C 27 .232 .296 .363 90 306 34 71 14 1 8 42 26 89 0 0 79 Charlie Culberson R 2B 23 .246 .283 .365 153 609 80 150 31 4 11 60 25 144 15 7 75 Brad Eldred R RF 31 .218 .275 .384 118 417 49 91 22 1 15 48 26 133 6 2 77 Emmanuel Burriss B 2B 27 .255 .308 .306 103 337 45 86 10 2 1 21 21 44 23 8 68 Hector Sanchez B P 22 .246 .288 .365 132 479 46 118 26 2 9 66 28 98 0 3 77 Aaron Rowand R CF 34 .237 .287 .365 114 375 44 89 20 2 8 34 17 92 3 3 76 Chris Stewart R C 30 .239 .309 .331 93 272 31 65 14 1 3 23 23 40 2 1 75 Tyler Graham R CF 28 .246 .293 .308 125 426 71 105 16 2 2 31 22 94 39 12 64 Bill Hall R 2B 32 .219 .274 .363 110 342 38 75 18 2 9 34 25 114 5 2 72 Wes Hodges R 1B 27 .241 .275 .357 124 473 47 114 24 2 9 49 22 118 2 2 71 Tommy Joseph R C 20 .226 .266 .368 151 598 71 135 30 2 17 79 27 155 1 0 71 Roger Kieschnick L RF 25 .226 .269 .367 125 477 63 108 21 5 12 55 27 145 7 5 71 Orlando Cabrera R 2B 37 .252 .284 .332 116 428 43 108 22 0 4 41 18 50 7 4 67 Ehire Adrianza B SS 22 .234 .295 .332 131 509 66 119 28 5 4 42 40 117 15 10 71 Jarrett Parker L RF 23 .212 .300 .319 148 589 85 125 24 3 11 56 67 192 16 7 69 Brandon Crawford L SS 25 .225 .291 .336 120 432 56 97 19 4 7 40 38 119 6 6 70 Eli Whiteside R C 32 .219 .274 .344 72 192 19 42 8 2 4 18 13 54 1 1 67 Darren Ford R CF 26 .223 .290 .314 116 417 65 93 13 5 5 30 35 125 29 14 65 Chris Dominguez R 3B 25 .222 .257 .354 156 630 74 140 30 4 15 77 25 191 8 7 64 Mark DeRosa R 3B 37 .244 .300 .277 46 119 14 29 4 0 0 12 8 23 1 1 59 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Carlos Beltran PO/58 AV/47 Pablo Sandoval AV/106 AV/80 Brandon Belt AV/119 AV/128 AV/112 Buster Posey VG AV/90 Melky Cabrera AV/94 FR/79 AV/111 Aubrey Huff AV/73 FR/85 FR/85 Gary Brown VG/87 Cody Ross AV/66 AV/97 AV/74 Nate Schierholtz AV/83 AV/83 Pat Burrell FR/164 Andres Torres VG/88 EX/72 VG/88 Brett Pill AV/76 PO/106 FR/117 Jeff Keppinger AV/71 FR/98 PO/99 Freddy Sanchez AV/66 Conor Gillaspie AV/104 AV/108 AV/117 Justin Christian VG/62 AV/78 VG/62 Francisco Peguero VG/143 VG/118 Mike Fontenot AV/111 FR/97 FR/101 Edgar Gonzalez AV/117 FR/122 FR/111 FR/98 AV/121 FR/121 Travis Ishikawa VG/62 AV/127 AV/127 Max Ramirez FR FR/118 Charlie Culberson AV/119 VG/160 Brad Eldred FR/130 PO/106 PO/166 PO/166 Emmanuel Burriss VG/156 FR/108 AV/109 AV/128 AV/109 Hector Sanchez AV Aaron Rowand VG/109 AV/56 VG/117 Chris Stewart VG AV/129 Tyler Graham VG/96 AV/95 VG/91 Bill Hall PO/130 VG/95 AV/96 FR/116 FR/115 Wes Hodges AV/173 PO/138 Tommy Joseph AV AV/114 Roger Kieschnick AV/82 AV/70 Orlando Cabrera FR/95 FR/114 FR/95 Ehire Adrianza VG/120 Jarrett Parker AV/115 FR/115 AV/150 Brandon Crawford AV/87 AV/87 Eli Whiteside AV Darren Ford VG/118 Chris Dominguez FR/124 Mark DeRosa FR/115 FR/113 FR/78 AV/85 AV/102 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Tim Lincecum R 28 2.92 16 9 32 32 212.7 177 69 15 75 225 133 Matt Cain R 27 3.04 14 8 32 32 213.0 183 72 16 62 171 128 Madison Bumgarner L 22 3.45 13 10 32 32 198.3 197 76 15 48 164 113 Eric Surkamp L 24 3.85 7 7 26 25 142.7 137 61 11 59 116 101 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Ryan Vogelsong R 34 4.18 8 10 26 25 153.0 156 71 17 60 119 93 Barry Zito L 34 4.28 7 8 23 21 124.0 118 59 15 52 92 91 Matt Yourkin L 30 4.94 5 8 32 19 120.3 137 66 14 44 85 79 Andrew Kown R 29 5.02 6 10 28 20 118.3 135 66 15 42 66 78 Shane Loux R 32 5.12 5 9 23 19 117.7 145 67 12 30 49 76 Josh Banks R 29 5.51 5 10 23 18 112.7 139 69 15 32 52 71 Chuck Lofgren L 26 5.73 4 8 26 18 97.3 106 62 15 61 58 68 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Sergio Romo R 29 2.20 4 1 62 0 49.0 36 12 4 11 62 177 Brian Wilson R 30 3.02 5 3 61 0 62.7 52 21 4 28 69 129 Ramon Ramirez R 30 3.32 4 3 65 0 65.0 56 24 5 27 58 117 Santiago Casilla R 32 3.40 3 2 51 1 53.0 45 20 4 26 48 115 Jeremy Affeldt L 33 3.52 3 2 60 0 53.7 48 21 5 23 47 111 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Heath Hembree R 23 3.63 1 1 57 0 52.0 43 21 4 32 58 107 Javier Lopez L 34 3.70 3 3 62 0 48.7 46 20 3 22 33 105 Dan Runzler L 27 3.80 3 3 50 6 64.0 56 27 4 38 63 103 Dan Otero R 27 3.86 3 3 41 0 49.0 50 21 4 12 36 101 Guillermo Mota R 38 4.05 2 2 47 0 60.0 56 27 7 24 51 96 Marc Kroon R 39 4.22 3 3 43 0 42.7 39 20 5 24 44 92 Hector Correa R 24 4.45 4 5 40 0 62.7 61 31 8 29 47 88 Waldis Joaquin R 25 4.50 3 3 42 2 58.0 59 29 5 32 38 87 Scott Munter R 32 4.60 3 4 45 1 58.7 60 30 5 35 44 85 Jean Machi R 30 4.64 3 4 50 0 52.3 54 27 5 26 36 84 Casey Daigle R 31 4.82 2 3 42 0 46.7 52 25 5 19 33 81 Steve Edlefsen R 27 4.90 3 5 50 0 60.7 63 33 6 38 41 80 Alex Hinshaw L 29 4.99 1 2 49 0 48.7 46 27 4 41 47 78 Geno Espineli L 29 5.01 3 5 42 2 55.7 66 31 5 21 26 78 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Carlos Beltran .280 .355 .482 2317 8851 1415 2474 516 93 362 1389 1037 1519 321 118 Pablo Sandoval .289 .337 .475 2274 8430 1086 2433 496 62 317 1188 649 1118 47 118 Melky Cabrera .274 .323 .406 2295 8220 1045 2254 472 57 167 904 581 1057 173 95 Orlando Cabrera .271 .315 .387 2101 7990 1028 2163 481 32 127 895 532 795 223 83 Aubrey Huff .274 .336 .453 2089 7699 993 2111 448 31 288 1115 697 1140 48 109 Buster Posey .275 .346 .416 1766 6552 889 1804 316 29 182 884 647 1020 62 107 Aaron Rowand .267 .323 .423 1602 5177 705 1382 308 21 153 607 295 1098 73 95 Freddy Sanchez .290 .328 .401 1182 4510 559 1308 271 21 62 471 235 573 18 94 Cody Ross .256 .317 .432 1301 4319 562 1105 257 17 156 597 341 953 47 99 Jeff Keppinger .276 .322 .376 1046 3750 425 1036 195 13 51 370 250 240 16 88 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Tim Lincecum 220 132 0 3.12 466 464 3053 2596 1057 230 1136 3244 127 Matt Cain 207 160 0 3.32 526 524 3427 2963 1264 288 1118 2783 121 Madison Bumgarner 191 134 0 3.35 446 443 2749 2667 1024 229 665 2377 116 Barry Zito 179 166 0 4.05 480 465 2852 2602 1284 318 1199 2118 105 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Carlos Beltran RF 43% 37% 14% 6% 1% Larry Walker Bobby Bonilla Al Smith Pablo Sandoval 3B 50% 37% 9% 4% 1% Adrian Beltre Ryan Zimmerman Jim Lefebvre Brandon Belt LF 23% 39% 23% 12% 4% Mel Hall Johnny Callison Johnny Briggs Buster Posey C 63% 29% 8% 1% 0% Bill Freehan Bruce Edwards Geovany Soto Melky Cabrera CF 24% 32% 31% 12% 2% Ken Berry Jim Piersall Garret Anderson Aubrey Huff 1B 3% 12% 16% 44% 26% Tino Martinez Chris Chambliss Walt Moryn Gary Brown CF 8% 16% 39% 27% 12% Marquis Grissom Rocco Baldelli Rondell White Cody Ross LF 1% 12% 14% 34% 40% Casey Blake Brian Lesher Jermaine Dye Nate Schierholtz RF 1% 5% 14% 30% 51% Greg Briley Dave Martinez Daryl Sconiers Pat Burrell LF 6% 8% 17% 29% 41% Jeff Manto Jay Buhner Cecil Fielder Andres Torres CF 5% 10% 38% 33% 15% Mitch Webster Michael Tucker Devon White Brett Pill 1B 0% 0% 3% 22% 75% John Mabry Dan Rohrmeier Jack Upton Jeff Keppinger 2B 3% 5% 15% 36% 42% Mark Christman Cookie Rojas Tommy Helms Freddy Sanchez 2B 2% 5% 14% 35% 46% Manny Trillo Mark Grudzielanek Cookie Rojas Conor Gillaspie 3B 2% 3% 8% 28% 60% Ernest Riles Peter Ciofrone Russ Adams Justin Christian LF 0% 4% 4% 13% 80% Jim Busby John Massarelli Eric Fox Francisco Peguero RF 0% 2% 2% 7% 90% Willie McGee Alexis Rios Marquis Grissom Mike Fontenot SS 4% 6% 23% 48% 20% Mike Moriarty Ron Warner Chris Clapinski Edgar Gonzalez SS 1% 4% 11% 43% 42% Greg Gagne Dickie Thon Charlie Hayes Travis Ishikawa 1B 0% 0% 1% 7% 92% Doug Deeds Howard Prager Orsino Hill Max Ramirez C 1% 6% 9% 48% 37% Gilberto Reyes Alvin Colina Dusty Brown Charlie Culberson 2B 2% 1% 4% 13% 81% Bill Hall Josh Barfield Daniel Mayora Brad Eldred RF 0% 0% 2% 2% 96% John Cotton Tom Nevers Chris Norton Emmanuel Burriss 2B 1% 1% 4% 10% 85% Edgar Caceres Corey Wimberly Mike Woodard Hector Sanchez P 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Billy Owens Jim Fasano Eddie Pearson Aaron Rowand CF 0% 0% 3% 19% 79% Darrell Whitmore Chad Mottola Emil Brown Chris Stewart C 1% 5% 10% 35% 50% Dave Toth Chris Tremie Chad Moeller Tyler Graham CF 0% 0% 4% 17% 80% Willy Taveras Jacob Brumfield Tim Raines Bill Hall 2B 1% 0% 3% 8% 89% Steve Scarsone Trace Coquillette Pete Mackanin Wes Hodges 1B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Danny Matienzo Glenn Carpenter Nilson Robledo Tommy Joseph C 1% 4% 10% 19% 67% Rob Bowen Michael McCormick Jeff Winchester Roger Kieschnick RF 0% 1% 1% 1% 99% Sean Barker Ron Lockett Richie Robnett Orlando Cabrera 2B 0% 1% 2% 5% 94% Bob Lillis Pete Suder Roy McMillan Ehire Adrianza SS 0% 1% 4% 19% 78% Dionys Cesar Ian Desmond Pedro Sanchez Jarrett Parker RF 0% 1% 0% 3% 96% Kinnis Pledger Jessie Reid Chito Martinez Brandon Crawford SS 2% 2% 2% 14% 81% Demetrish JenkinsFrancisco Plasencia John Nelson Eli Whiteside C 0% 3% 4% 12% 81% Chad Moeller Luis Rodriguez Paul Hoover Darren Ford CF 1% 0% 2% 3% 95% Kimera Bartee Tony Russell Andres Torres Chris Dominguez 3B 0% 0% 1% 1% 98% Tim Holland Carlos Casimiro Brian Barden Mark DeRosa 3B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Jim Davenport Billy Jurges Charlie Hayes Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Sergio Romo RP 90% 5% 5% Justin Duchscherer Ugueth Urbina John Wetteland Tim Lincecum SP 87% 8% 5% Kevin Appier Bartolo Colon Bob Welch Brian Wilson RP 58% 37% 6% Jim Kern Mark Clear Heathcliff Slocumb Matt Cain SP 79% 16% 5% Joey Hamilton Freddy Garcia Dustin Hermanson Ramon Ramirez RP 42% 47% 11% Cory Bailey Ryan Dempster Bobby Thigpen Santiago Casilla RP 39% 46% 15% Cory Bailey Gregg Olson Rich DeLucia Madison Bumgarner SP 59% 36% 5% Mark Mulder Donovan Osborne Zach Duke Jeremy Affeldt RP 30% 48% 22% Kevin Tolar Marshall Bridges Will Brunson Heath Hembree RP 30% 41% 29% Eric Cammack Brian Bruney Ryan Bukvich Javier Lopez RP 25% 46% 29% Scott Schoeneweis Marshall Bridges Luis Arroyo Dan Runzler RP 21% 50% 28% Armando Almanza Ricky Pickett Kevin Lovingier Eric Surkamp SP 32% 56% 12% Ed Yarnall Bill Scherrer Kevin Brown Dan Otero RP 18% 49% 32% Rusty Meacham Heath Bost John Kelly Guillermo Mota RP 13% 45% 42% Doug Bair Hector Carrasco Jose Mesa Ryan Vogelsong SP 13% 56% 31% Bobby Witt Kevin Gross Tim Leary Marc Kroon RP 10% 33% 57% Greg Harris Rudy Seanez Doug Bair Barry Zito SP 12% 52% 36% Brian Bohanon Jim Deshaies Darren Oliver Hector Correa RP 4% 33% 63% Chris Lemp Ryan Seifert Tony Dougherty Waldis Joaquin RP 6% 29% 65% Joe Davenport Marc Pisciotta Joel Moore Scott Munter RP 4% 23% 73% David Lee Jerry Johnson Marc Wilkins Jean Machi RP 5% 23% 72% Jarod Juelsgaard Jake Robbins Jason Bullard Casey Daigle RP 4% 21% 75% Todd Williams Jason Childers Mark Small Steve Edlefsen RP 2% 14% 84% Ryan Baker Mike Schultz Mike Zimmerman Matt Yourkin SP 2% 23% 75% Brian Abraham Scott Aldred Casey Fossum Alex Hinshaw RP 2% 20% 79% Bill White Kevin Tolar Tim Fortugno Geno Espineli RP 1% 16% 83% Jon Switzer Chris Key Mark Watson Andrew Kown SP 1% 19% 80% Felipe Lira Vicente Bonilla Ricardo Rodriguez Shane Loux SP 3% 19% 78% Pat Ahearne James Baldwin Tim McClaskey Josh Banks SP 1% 8% 91% Geoff Grenert Jose Lima Clay Condrey Chuck Lofgren SP 0% 4% 96% Corey Lee Steve Smyth Matt White Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Carlos Beltran 15% 26% 22% 0% 2% 1% 19% 1% Pablo Sandoval 48% 5% 50% 9% 5% 16% 17% 0% Brandon Belt 4% 26% 12% 0% 7% 3% 11% 2% Buster Posey 16% 17% 5% 0% 1% 0% 5% 0% Melky Cabrera 17% 1% 3% 6% 7% 0% 0% 5% Aubrey Huff 2% 1% 4% 0% 2% 2% 2% 0% Gary Brown 7% 2% 1% 1% 64% 0% 1% 78% Cody Ross 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% Nate Schierholtz 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Pat Burrell 0% 2% 5% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Andres Torres 1% 1% 2% 0% 3% 1% 2% 1% Brett Pill 0% 0% 1% 5% 2% 1% 0% 1% Jeff Keppinger 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Freddy Sanchez 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Conor Gillaspie 3% 1% 2% 0% 18% 1% 2% 0% Justin Christian 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 20% Francisco Peguero 4% 0% 0% 0% 47% 0% 0% 5% Mike Fontenot 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Edgar Gonzalez 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Travis Ishikawa 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Max Ramirez 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Charlie Culberson 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 5% Brad Eldred 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Emmanuel Burriss 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% Hector Sanchez 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Aaron Rowand 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chris Stewart 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tyler Graham 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 93% Bill Hall 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Wes Hodges 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tommy Joseph 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 5% 0% 0% Roger Kieschnick 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% Orlando Cabrera 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Ehire Adrianza 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 0% 0% 3% Jarrett Parker 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 6% Brandon Crawford 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 1% 0% Eli Whiteside 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Darren Ford 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 44% Chris Dominguez 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% Mark DeRosa 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Sergio Romo 91% 95% 99% 58% 84% Tim Lincecum 61% 93% 91% 2% 96% Brian Wilson 49% 92% 93% 0% 96% Matt Cain 48% 91% 18% 8% 95% Ramon Ramirez 33% 84% 47% 1% 83% Santiago Casilla 31% 80% 54% 0% 90% Madison Bumgarner 20% 82% 21% 35% 95% Jeremy Affeldt 23% 71% 41% 1% 81% Heath Hembree 23% 63% 93% 0% 85% Javier Lopez 25% 64% 6% 2% 92% Dan Runzler 16% 58% 75% 0% 93% Eric Surkamp 5% 60% 17% 0% 94% Dan Otero 18% 60% 8% 52% 71% Guillermo Mota 13% 50% 37% 2% 63% Ryan Vogelsong 2% 32% 10% 0% 60% Marc Kroon 10% 35% 80% 0% 57% Barry Zito 2% 32% 7% 0% 50% Hector Correa 3% 30% 8% 0% 52% Waldis Joaquin 4% 28% 3% 0% 80% Scott Munter 3% 21% 11% 0% 85% Jean Machi 3% 21% 4% 0% 72% Casey Daigle 2% 19% 7% 2% 66% Steve Edlefsen 1% 12% 2% 0% 79% Matt Yourkin 0% 6% 2% 1% 44% Alex Hinshaw 2% 16% 69% 0% 77% Geno Espineli 1% 13% 0% 3% 74% Andrew Kown 0% 4% 0% 3% 41% Shane Loux 1% 7% 0% 30% 64% Josh Banks 0% 2% 0% 18% 36% Chuck Lofgren 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 30, 2011 at 08:17 PM | 34 comment(s)
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1. Bobby A Posted: November 30, 2011 at 08:59 PM (#4003955)Is there a reason why he is used for so few batters per appearance? Are the Giants missing out on a Jonny Venters-esque 85 inning awesome reliever or would his health and/or effectivess plummet if used for even just an inning per appearance?
If you don't mind, Dan, could you run a projection for Johnny Monell?
1/3 of the way through, the top 5 (starters and relievers) are:
Romo - 177
Papelbon - 152
Marshall - 149
Robertson - 146
Bard - 145
Verlander - 144
Lee - 140
Halladay - 140
Linceum - 133
Felix - 131
I think you're underselling Appier. He was fantastic in his 20's. Career 137 ERA+ in 1665.1 IP through age 29.
And then he hit the wall. Injury I suppose.
Wow. I wonder if any of the teams in need of a closer have called the Giants about Romo.
(Hall of Players Greg Thinks are Great - for those who think they're better informed than the many tireless researchers over at the Hall of Merit.)
Dan, did something go wrong with the DeRosa projection? Or are crippling injuries and age sufficient to project him for an .033 ISO? I'm also still a little skeptical of the Gary Brown projection, but I guess I see how last season's numbers translate to something that looks more than passable at the major-league level.
They're basically the same age, and while Lincecum has definitely been better over their careers, the gap is a lot smaller than I expected. Cain also has an extra 300 IP because he came up much earlier. But Lincecum has two Cy Young awards and Cain has a career winning percentage under .500.
Over the years, Appier has become crossed in my mind with Kevin Tapani. Similar name, generally AL pitchers, same rough time frame. Tapani had a nice career but wasn't quite to Appier's level. Although winning 19 games for the Cubs with a 90 ERA+ was a neat trick.
Well, minus the mustache.
I don't see why Zito's projection would seem all that rosy, that's roughly what he did in 2009-2010. Just because his performance will never come close to matching his salary or contract does not mean that he's not a serviceable starter, particularly as the 5th guy in the rotation.
I don't see why DeRosa's projection is so shocking. He did not hit for much power while with the Giants because of his wrist problems and the projections not only take the two years into consideration, but also that he'll be 37 next season as well, which would also push ISO down more.
About projections of minor league players, what is taken into account by the methodology? Obviously MLE. Does the age of the player relative to the league also come into the calculus?
Are we really still using winning percentage to compare pitchers? Shouldn't the software here cause comments like that to burst into flames?
And... I'm still taking Mariano over the field to prove ZiPs wrong... again. Even if he is something like 71 years old! :)
The games played/at bats are a little too Marcel-ish for my tastes, and not sufficiently reflective of what looks to be a very successful surgery before the 2011 season. Beltran does need a manager who will sit him the feck down once a week. Paced, he's enough of a hitter to stick around into his late 30s even when he can't run any more. The Mets playing him 80 of 81 games was an inexcusable attempt to build his value. Guy loves to play though.
Those SB numbers are unlikely. A manager who lets Beltran steal at a rate almost triple last season deserves a low shot.
And wait til we see Kimbrel and Venters.
I am 10,000% percent convinced that Cain is the most underrated pitcher in baseball.
Belt has raked at every stop in the minors. Now, he isn't as good as his minor league slash rates would have you believe but it isn't a surprise Zips would like him. He can hit.
Whoa, I just realized Adrianza is projected to be be a better fielder AND hitter than Crawford.
See, that was the beauty of Morris and why he deserves to go into the HoF. When he needed to, Morris pitched like Appier; when he knew he could get away with it, he pitched like bad Jose Lima. That's why he won over 400 games. Appier tried to pitch like Appier all the time which is just a silly approach.
If they had let Morris bat, his slash line would have been 100/100/400 with 150 walk-off HR plus that memorable drive off Smoltz in Game 7.
1. Matt Cain is a stud
2. Matt Cain is projected to pitch another 2100 innings with almost no fall-off (relative to career-to-date)
3. Matt Cain has a horrible set of comps :-)
And all his outs would have been productive outs!
Thanks. I never got to see him pitch, but his stats really stick out (70 K's versus 5 BB's and zero HBPs etc).
Outside of playing time, I thought it was a pretty nice projection, given that he'll be 35. I'm not sure if you play fantasy or sim, but if it's sim, the ratios matter more than R/RBIs. Also, consider that he's only getting 2/3 of a season, so both of those numbers would be 78 over 162, nothing special, but maybe not as bad as it looks if you're looking at counting stats.
Year OPS+
2009 140
2010 120
2011 100
and
Year OPS+
2009 100
2010 110
2011 120
Of course, I could be way off, but not having access to Dan's black box, I have to go with my intuition in this regard. A Marcels oriented projection projects both players to put up a 113 OPS+ in 2012, and that doesn't make good sense to me.
Neither of the above paths are Beltran's, but his offseason surgery was evidently very, very successful. It's my understanding Dan doesn't go back and tinker with his projections because of things like that, and if my understanding is correct then ZIPS will often miss on players like Beltran. But, again, I could be way off on this.
Kimbrel's ZIPS is now out, and about the same ERA/ERA+ as Romo...
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