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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Sunday, November 27, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - Seattle MarinersThe 2011 season for the Mariners was less disappointing than 2010, though mostly because the expectations were significantly lower going into this year. The Mariners didn’t have a whole lot in the way of pleasant surprises as none of the possible bouncebacks really bounced back and most of the legacy prospects (the older prospects that have been hanging onto the second tier on the prospect lists for a few years) didn’t take any steps forward. That Vincent Catricala, who’s not really a third baseman, appears so high on the list is a reflection, along with the relatively high ranking of the long-departed Bradley, on just how few real impact hitters are in the organization. More specifically, zero - Ackley’s a very good hitter for a second baseman, but he’s not of the level that you build the middle of a competitive batting order around him.
At least one pitcher and probably more will exceed their projections and establish a new level, though with pitching prospects as usual, it’s a bit unclear who will take that step forward. My personal vote is Charlie Furbush - I think his fastball has some upside and he certainly looks like a guy who should be able to eke out a few more MPH and his changeup will be a pretty good weapon if he does that. I know some like Blake Beavan, but he’s just been so damn hittable at AAA so far.
ZiPS is kind of disappointed in Justin Smoak. He’s not a god of either defense or walks, so he’s simply not a real 1B at the major league level with a low batting average and unimpressive (for a 1B) power.
While there are 3 years left in Felix Hernandez’s extension in Seattle, the team’s drawing pretty close to the Rubicon and will need to decide at some point in the not-too-distant future whether to make Felix Hernandez the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history or to trade the team’s best (by far) player for a package. The Mariners can make as much noise as they want about bringing in Prince Fielder, but the team’s just not likely to be competitive in 2012.
Next Up: San Francisco Giants
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Dustin Ackley L 2B 24 .261 .348 .410 156 610 101 159 31 9 14 58 81 113 11 3 111 Vincent Catricala R 3B 23 .259 .321 .401 156 611 97 158 36 3 15 73 46 137 11 3 100 Mike Carp L LF 26 .252 .317 .414 151 563 78 142 26 1 21 75 49 141 3 3 102 Ichiro Suzuki L RF 38 .278 .317 .354 148 625 81 174 23 3 6 43 36 69 35 8 87 Kyle Seager L 2B 24 .267 .323 .372 141 572 84 153 32 2 8 61 44 100 11 8 93 Justin Smoak B 1B 25 .231 .326 .376 124 441 49 102 22 0 14 49 61 117 0 0 95 Milton Bradley B LF 34 .217 .322 .359 60 198 28 43 8 1 6 23 27 60 4 1 90 Franklin GutierrezR CF 29 .248 .299 .358 132 475 61 118 21 2 9 47 34 99 15 3 82 Mike Wilson R RF 29 .227 .301 .370 103 384 60 87 17 1 12 42 36 120 6 2 86 Alex Liddi R 3B 23 .228 .292 .387 156 600 110 137 30 4 19 84 50 194 6 3 87 Casper Wells R RF 27 .219 .293 .403 117 370 44 81 17 3 15 34 31 130 7 6 91 Chih-Hsien Chiang L RF 24 .239 .287 .382 134 502 55 120 32 2 12 49 28 112 5 3 85 Adam Kennedy L 2B 36 .249 .302 .344 119 390 44 97 20 1 5 36 28 63 11 3 80 Luis Rodriguez B SS 32 .252 .319 .360 78 242 26 61 12 1 4 25 24 30 2 4 89 Matt Mangini L 1B 26 .247 .293 .350 114 429 53 106 16 2 8 54 26 115 4 1 79 Wily Mo Pena R LF 30 .224 .281 .380 74 263 29 59 9 1 10 30 17 80 1 1 82 Brendan Ryan R SS 30 .245 .303 .322 130 425 55 104 18 3 3 33 30 75 12 4 75 Michael Saunders L CF 25 .220 .298 .339 131 436 68 96 16 3 10 41 47 136 12 5 77 Nick Franklin B SS 21 .230 .284 .344 133 544 87 125 16 5 12 37 39 161 18 7 74 Chone Figgins B 3B 34 .242 .323 .305 115 433 55 105 17 2 2 26 52 80 23 12 77 Adam Moore R C 28 .242 .286 .345 68 252 26 61 11 0 5 13 13 59 1 1 75 Miguel Olivo R C 33 .225 .263 .376 113 404 49 91 15 2 14 49 20 127 6 4 76 Trayvon Robinson B LF 24 .214 .294 .342 152 565 77 121 20 5 14 52 61 226 22 13 77 Nate Tenbrink L 3B 25 .212 .288 .319 106 386 53 82 13 5 6 34 36 121 13 4 69 Chris Gimenez R C 29 .217 .300 .325 68 212 27 46 8 0 5 19 25 61 1 2 75 Matt Tuiasosopo R 1B 26 .199 .291 .322 111 413 64 82 17 2 10 46 51 146 5 2 71 Carlos Peguero L LF 25 .211 .265 .360 127 492 67 104 18 5 15 58 31 208 6 5 72 Josh Bard B C 34 .228 .277 .327 80 272 24 62 15 0 4 31 19 60 0 0 68 Francisco MartinezR 3B 21 .238 .274 .333 138 534 70 127 19 4 8 43 27 147 10 10 69 Carlos Triunfel R SS 22 .245 .279 .323 156 595 64 146 22 3 6 43 19 104 5 8 67 Sean Kazmar R SS 27 .230 .279 .307 140 508 58 117 23 2 4 43 32 94 7 4 63 Johermyn Chavez R RF 23 .217 .284 .332 154 585 69 127 20 4 13 56 43 179 6 11 71 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Dustin Ackley AV/126 Vincent Catricala AV/104 PO/113 FR/112 Mike Carp AV/121 FR/143 Ichiro Suzuki VG/80 Kyle Seager AV/130 AV/93 FR/111 Justin Smoak AV/110 Milton Bradley PO/104 PO/104 Franklin Gutierrez EX/64 Mike Wilson AV/163 PO/93 AV/63 Alex Liddi AV/124 FR/116 PO/108 Casper Wells AV/100 AV/110 AV/119 Chih-Hsien Chiang VG/162 AV/115 Adam Kennedy AV/105 AV/106 AV/104 Luis Rodriguez FR/104 FR/102 PO/102 Matt Mangini AV/150 AV/129 Wily Mo Pena PO/126 PO/116 PO/103 Brendan Ryan VG/103 EX/79 Michael Saunders VG/108 AV/70 VG/113 Nick Franklin AV/113 FR/159 Chone Figgins FR/130 VG/83 Adam Moore FR Miguel Olivo AV Trayvon Robinson VG/100 AV/145 Nate Tenbrink AV/131 AV/157 PO/118 FR/138 FR/105 Chris Gimenez FR/105 Matt Tuiasosopo AV Carlos Peguero AV/163 FR/163 AV/163 Josh Bard AV Francisco Martinez AV/133 Carlos Triunfel AV/134 AV/148 Sean Kazmar AV/105 FR/116 AV/118 Johermyn Chavez AV/104 FR/95 AV/141 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Felix Hernandez R 26 3.00 16 10 33 33 237.3 206 79 18 67 226 131 Michael Pineda R 23 3.52 10 9 28 28 161.0 142 63 15 53 152 112 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Jason Vargas L 29 4.31 9 11 31 28 175.3 181 84 19 52 110 91 Blake Beavan R 23 4.79 8 13 29 29 176.7 210 94 20 33 82 82 Jarrett Grube R 30 5.11 4 7 22 14 93.3 107 53 12 34 55 77 Andrew Carraway R 25 5.15 5 9 25 20 117.0 137 67 16 32 65 76 Fabio Castro L 27 5.16 4 8 26 16 96.0 107 55 10 52 61 76 Tom Wilhelmsen R 28 5.30 3 6 24 11 69.7 79 41 8 35 41 74 Erasmo Ramirez R 22 5.32 5 11 25 24 140.3 172 83 19 33 75 74 Chaz Roe R 25 5.37 4 8 27 17 115.7 139 69 14 46 67 73 Anthony Vasquez L 25 5.37 6 13 24 23 134.0 167 80 17 37 61 73 Charlie Furbush L 26 5.39 6 12 30 22 123.7 136 74 21 48 91 73 Luke French L 26 5.58 6 13 26 24 143.7 174 89 21 54 70 71 Chris Seddon L 28 5.80 4 11 26 20 121.0 146 78 16 57 67 68 Nate Robertson L 34 5.86 3 8 22 16 86.0 109 56 11 35 44 67 Yoervis Medina R 23 6.22 4 10 21 20 105.7 131 73 17 52 58 63 Mauricio Robles L 23 6.35 3 8 18 18 73.7 78 52 12 65 57 62 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Brandon League R 29 3.61 5 4 65 0 67.3 63 27 6 18 55 109 David Aardsma R 30 3.66 2 2 34 0 32.0 26 13 3 16 35 108 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Josh Lueke R 27 3.81 3 3 43 0 54.3 52 23 4 20 45 103 Shawn Kelley R 28 4.01 2 2 30 0 33.7 32 15 4 12 31 98 Chance Ruffin R 23 4.20 3 4 61 0 64.3 59 30 7 38 64 94 Cesar Jimenez L 27 4.35 2 3 29 0 41.3 42 20 4 21 33 90 Chris Ray R 30 4.40 2 3 46 0 45.0 45 22 4 21 34 89 Jamey Wright R 37 4.43 2 3 51 0 61.0 61 30 6 30 42 89 Denny Bautista R 29 4.47 2 3 38 0 46.3 42 23 4 32 48 88 Chris Smith R 31 4.81 1 2 35 0 43.0 46 23 6 18 35 82 Stephen Pryor R 22 4.88 2 3 41 0 48.0 44 26 4 40 44 81 Steve Delabar R 28 5.28 3 7 46 0 58.0 58 34 6 50 49 75 Dan Cortes R 25 5.34 2 4 54 0 55.7 57 33 5 43 43 74 Edward Paredes L 25 5.88 2 6 45 1 59.7 70 39 7 39 37 67 Bobby LaFromboise L 26 5.94 3 8 40 8 86.3 107 57 13 39 48 66 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Ichiro Suzuki .319 .362 .412 2006 8543 1263 2726 319 79 105 679 554 868 479 111 Adam Kennedy .269 .322 .378 1858 6139 750 1649 321 43 88 630 431 932 199 86 Chone Figgins .275 .348 .359 1370 5199 772 1431 208 60 35 434 590 898 369 91 Miguel Olivo .237 .272 .406 1409 4839 572 1146 214 32 180 627 210 1370 73 80 Franklin Gutierrez .251 .301 .367 1302 4504 567 1130 208 16 95 456 312 924 127 83 Josh Bard .248 .311 .372 729 2264 205 562 136 3 46 274 208 402 1 85 Wily Mo Pena .244 .298 .429 724 2151 259 525 85 6 100 289 138 689 13 90 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Felix Hernandez 258 171 0 3.20 561 559 3908 3514 1389 325 1150 3654 126 Jason Vargas 86 110 0 4.52 314 282 1744 1812 875 213 554 1099 88 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Dustin Ackley 2B 51% 24% 14% 9% 3% Dick McAuliffe Rickie Weeks Ryne Sandberg Vincent Catricala 3B 7% 19% 30% 31% 15% Fernando Tatis Carney Lansford Josh Barfield Mike Carp LF 1% 12% 18% 37% 34% Daryle Ward Dave Clark Larry Sheets Ichiro Suzuki RF 3% 7% 11% 25% 55% Doc Cramer Sam Rice Al Bumbry Kyle Seager 2B 9% 11% 16% 34% 31% Brent Gates Aaron Hill Tony Kubek Justin Smoak 1B 1% 3% 9% 43% 46% Jose Birriel Mike Carp Brandon Sing Milton Bradley LF 1% 4% 4% 17% 75% Reed Secrist Junior Spivey Mike Hegan Franklin GutierrezCF 1% 6% 15% 52% 27% Darnell McDonald Lynn Garrett Doug Clark Mike Wilson RF 0% 1% 6% 10% 84% Keith Williams Jack Voigt Tony Barron Alex Liddi 3B 2% 5% 10% 29% 55% Joel Guzman Ron Gant Josh Fields Casper Wells RF 0% 2% 7% 14% 78% Ray Sadler Scott Hairston Todd Dunn Chih-Hsien Chiang RF 0% 2% 4% 11% 85% Mark Ryal Jim Bennett Magglio Ordonez Adam Kennedy 2B 4% 5% 9% 27% 57% Jim Gantner Eddie Mayo Scott Fletcher Luis Rodriguez SS 3% 7% 18% 42% 32% Bucky Dent Geoff Blum Chico Carrasquel Matt Mangini 1B 0% 1% 2% 3% 96% Rich Lane Lonnie Maclin Mike Maksudian Wily Mo Pena LF 0% 1% 4% 3% 93% Jim Gantner Eddie Mayo Scott Fletcher Brendan Ryan SS 1% 2% 14% 42% 42% Andy Stankiewicz Eddie Pye Chris Barnwell Michael Saunders CF 1% 3% 10% 19% 68% Dan Ortmeier Randy Salava Mark Budzinski Nick Franklin SS 7% 7% 10% 25% 53% Elliot Johnson Buddy Biancalana Royce Clayton Chone Figgins 3B 0% 2% 7% 11% 81% Mark McLemore Jamey Carroll Craig Counsell Adam Moore C 1% 4% 10% 32% 55% Omir Santos Mike DiFelice Geronimo Gil Miguel Olivo C 1% 5% 10% 31% 55% Jim Hegan Mike Heath Don Zimmer Trayvon Robinson LF 0% 1% 2% 4% 94% Devon White Chin-Feng Chen Larry Whisenton Nate Tenbrink 3B 1% 1% 3% 6% 91% Joe Redfield Eric Riggs Cornelio Garcia Chris Gimenez C 2% 4% 5% 22% 69% Danny Ardoin B.J. Waszgis Ray Stephens Matt Tuiasosopo 1B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Gus Kennedy Daryl Clark Willie Tatum Carlos Peguero LF 0% 0% 2% 3% 96% Ralph Bryant Brad Snyder Jalal Leach Josh Bard C 0% 1% 4% 16% 80% Keith McDonald Shawn Wooten Joe Oliver Francisco Martinez3B 1% 2% 1% 3% 95% George Hinshaw Mike Sharperson Ryne Sandberg Carlos Triunfel SS 0% 2% 3% 9% 87% Fred Manrique Edwin Aponte Alvaro Espinoza Sean Kazmar SS 0% 1% 3% 9% 88% Zach Borowiak Nick Ortiz Milko Jaramillo Johermyn Chavez RF 1% 0% 0% 0% 100% Victor Ferrante Zoilo Sanchez Cory Aldridge Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Felix Hernandez SP 85% 10% 5% Greg Maddux Mike Witt Roy Oswalt Michael Pineda SP 56% 39% 5% Adam Miller Bob Welch David Nied Brandon League RP 30% 55% 15% Donnie Moore Rod Beck Steve Reed David Aardsma RP 40% 33% 27% Greg Harris Russ Springer Troy Percival Josh Lueke RP 24% 48% 28% Mark Huismann Derek Wallace Randy St. Claire Shawn Kelley RP 19% 40% 41% Sergio Valdez Dave Tobik Paul Mancuso Chance Ruffin RP 9% 40% 50% Jeff Zaske Jeff Innis P.J. Bevis Jason Vargas SP 11% 52% 37% Kirk Rueter Carlos Perez Neal Heaton Cesar Jimenez RP 9% 37% 54% Dan Ricabal Thomas Hart Dave Rucker Chris Ray RP 8% 33% 59% Jason Childers Gregg Olson Ernie Camacho Jamey Wright RP 11% 35% 54% Ray Moore Moe Drabowsky Turk Lown Denny Bautista RP 9% 33% 59% Bart Miadich Calvin Jones Mark Clear Blake Beavan SP 2% 30% 68% Carlos Silva Josh Towers Andrew Baldwin Chris Smith RP 5% 18% 77% Nate Field Doug Henry Manny Aybar Stephen Pryor RP 3% 26% 71% Brad Voyles Josh Banks Rafael Pimentel Jarrett Grube SP 3% 19% 79% Frank Campos Steve Comer Joe Mays Andrew Carraway SP 1% 18% 81% Nicholas Ungs Geoff Geary Heath Totten Fabio Castro SP 1% 16% 83% Sean Henn Ken Spratke Scott Forster Steve Delabar RP 1% 9% 90% Mike MacDougal John Davis Marcus Gwyn Tom Wilhelmsen SP 0% 8% 92% David Martinez Mark Calvert Timothy Smith Erasmo Ramirez SP 0% 11% 89% Andrew Baldwin Heath Totten Josh Towers Dan Cortes RP 1% 10% 89% Marc Pisciotta Jeff Smith Heathcliff Slocumb Chaz Roe SP 0% 9% 91% Brandon Leese Tony Peguero Bill King Anthony Vasquez SP 0% 8% 92% Bobby Livingston Heath Phillips Randy Leek Charlie Furbush SP 0% 10% 90% Bryan Ward Buddy Groom Mike Linskey Luke French SP 0% 3% 97% Heath Phillips Mike Linskey Jason Cromer Chris Seddon SP 0% 2% 98% Mike Prochaska Nate Teut Tim McCoy Nate Robertson SP 1% 6% 93% Robert Lee Ken Holtzman Chris Michalak Edward Paredes RP 0% 2% 98% Erick Burke Jason Hill Bryan Malko Bobby LaFromboise RP 0% 1% 99% Steve Kline Jason Mackintosh Kevin King Yoervis Medina SP 0% 1% 99% Jared Jensen Patrick Coogan Jim Blueberg Mauricio Robles SP 0% 2% 98% Scott MacRae Mike Gonzalez Mike Spiegel Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Dustin Ackley 2% 9% 4% 4% 59% 2% 3% 3% Vincent Catricala 1% 1% 3% 5% 1% 4% 1% 2% Mike Carp 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% 1% 0% Ichiro Suzuki 9% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 66% Kyle Seager 4% 2% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 3% Justin Smoak 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Milton Bradley 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Franklin Gutierrez 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Mike Wilson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Alex Liddi 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 5% 1% 0% Casper Wells 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Chih-Hsien Chiang 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Adam Kennedy 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% Luis Rodriguez 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Matt Mangini 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Wily Mo Pena 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brendan Ryan 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% Michael Saunders 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Nick Franklin 1% 1% 3% 0% 6% 4% 2% 6% Chone Figgins 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 16% Adam Moore 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Miguel Olivo 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Trayvon Robinson 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 1% 0% 7% Nate Tenbrink 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% Chris Gimenez 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Matt Tuiasosopo 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Carlos Peguero 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Josh Bard 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Francisco Martinez 0% 0% 2% 0% 4% 2% 0% 1% Carlos Triunfel 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% Sean Kazmar 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Johermyn Chavez 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 1% 1% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Felix Hernandez 56% 93% 69% 11% 95% Michael Pineda 21% 78% 66% 2% 76% Brandon League 23% 74% 21% 28% 76% David Aardsma 29% 73% 89% 1% 80% Josh Lueke 17% 57% 29% 3% 87% Shawn Kelley 19% 48% 50% 15% 57% Chance Ruffin 7% 43% 79% 0% 62% Jason Vargas 2% 30% 0% 10% 52% Cesar Jimenez 9% 37% 20% 0% 85% Chris Ray 8% 33% 11% 1% 74% Jamey Wright 8% 34% 7% 1% 74% Denny Bautista 5% 33% 83% 0% 71% Blake Beavan 0% 7% 0% 84% 56% Chris Smith 3% 16% 24% 2% 45% Stephen Pryor 3% 22% 50% 0% 73% Jarrett Grube 1% 7% 1% 4% 39% Andrew Carraway 0% 4% 0% 20% 29% Fabio Castro 0% 5% 0% 0% 74% Steve Delabar 0% 7% 31% 0% 66% Tom Wilhelmsen 0% 4% 0% 0% 61% Erasmo Ramirez 0% 1% 0% 43% 30% Dan Cortes 1% 8% 13% 0% 73% Chaz Roe 0% 2% 0% 0% 46% Anthony Vasquez 0% 1% 0% 17% 40% Charlie Furbush 0% 2% 3% 0% 10% Luke French 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% Chris Seddon 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% Nate Robertson 0% 2% 1% 1% 50% Edward Paredes 0% 2% 1% 0% 54% Bobby LaFromboise 0% 1% 0% 0% 30% Yoervis Medina 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% Mauricio Robles 0% 0% 11% 0% 18% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 27, 2011 at 07:23 PM | 42 comment(s)
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1. Xander Posted: November 27, 2011 at 07:41 PM (#4001691)With that offense, Eddie Bressoud would listen if they called.
How much longer do they give Zduriencik? I think he's a pretty bright guy, but it's 3 years already, and he hasn't really added much talent.
I'm guessing he's ruing picking Smoak over Montero, big time. So far, Montero has accumulated more Rbat in 69 PA than Smoak has in 886.
Ackley and...?
The correct ratings for Tuiasosopo are AV/117 at 1B, FR/107 at 2B, FR/105 at 3B, PO/113 at SS, AV/104 at LF and RF.
Ackley and...?
I'm figuring Ichiro has at least a dead cat bounce in him, but he could be toast.
that's a lot of TOR potential.
that's a lot of TOR potential.
And nobody who can hit a lick.
I'm assuming you mean all these players are going to be traded to Toronto for three .230-hitting centerfielders and three platoon first basemen.
Hunch: Dustin Ackley is going to be a star in the Jeter/Pedroia mold.
Hunch: Ichiro! is not done yet, and will bang out a 300 average and 200 hits.
Hunch: this time next year, the Felix Hernandez derby is in full swing after another disappointing Mariners season.
Seattle is doing one thing right this winter - they aren't loking to make a big splash in free agancy. Fielder and Pujols together wouldn't put this team in the playoffs next year. Better to take a longer term approach, though Felix's clock is indeed ticking.
Not sure how his postseason experience will help the M's, but looking at the projections for catchers above, there's a decent chance Jaso's better than all of them (despite his bad year this year), or least not worse.
HIs free agency clock is ticking. If the M's don't show any indicator that they're going to compete ever, the only way they can keep Felix is to blow him away with money . . . which might prevent them from ever competing.
Wondering specifically for the Mariners' case in particular.
...yet only 1263 runs. Only slow-asses Al Oliver and and Brooks Robinson have fewer runs with that many or more hits.
On the other hand, apparently the Ackley move to second took about as well as could be hoped. They might end up looking pretty smart for that.
He has been the lead off man for some terrible, terrible offenses. He really should have decided to hit more HR's.
He's signed through 2014, and is close to market price. They've go 2 years to figure it out.
So not only is he prescient, he's also ahead of the pack!
Montero: .271 .333 .486, 112 OPS+, Age 22
If those numbers stay that way--and Montero sticks at catcher--that's a terrible mark on Zduriencik's resume.
I admit I only read these for the comps as I have no idea who most of these players are. This one is my favorite. So, it's somewhere in the 'gold glove, championship level centerfielder' to 'barely got a cup of coffee in the majors' range. Since it's the Mariners, I'm going to lean towards Whisenton side of things.
Not taking a shot at Dan or anything, it just fun to see what the computer spits out when it has little to go on.
FTFY.
Catricala's bat is real. He didn't look too awful at third when I saw the Generals late in the season, but his error to DP ratio there in the minors, coupled with everything I've read, suggests that he probably is pretty bad. But I think he'll hit with enough power to carry a corner, although I'd really like to see what he can do in a less friendly environment for hitters.
Nick Franklin is going to be very good in a couple of years, too, ZiPS comps notwithstanding.
-- MWE
What, no love for Biancalana? He posted a 476 OPS+ rookie year:)
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