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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Saturday, December 17, 20112012 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis CardinalsAs I generally mention when a good, not great team wins the World Series, the most dangerous trap that team can fall into is the tendency to “bring back the band” and try to keep the roster pretty much the way it was during their championship season. A great team has a little more room to rest on their laurels, a very good team doesn’t. The San Franciso Giants were the most recent team to fall into the trap and when an offense that had a lot go right to just finish 9th in scoring in 2010 had less go right, their quest to defend was over before the month of September.
It’s doubly dangerous and difficult for the Cardinals because with Pujols gone, they can’t even simply be satisfied to reassemble the 2011 squad. Having Adam Wainwright back is huge, however, and though the Cardinals have had some luck in that the Brewers are losing Fielder, misidentified what needed to be replaced in the infield (a better shortstop than Seabass and Green at 3rd would have been a significantly better alternative), and probably lose Braun for 50 games, they still need to fix up some things. They’re near the point at which they have to throw in the towel on Westbrook, past the point at which they have to throw in the towel on Westbrook, and can’t delude themselves into thinking that there’s no room to bring in Carlos Beltran with Allen Craig on the roster (plenty of at-bats for everyone - neither them nor Berkman and Holliday are Ripkens).
Still, the Cardinals are clearly in contention in 2012, but they could be a little better. Long-term, the Cubs are likely to eventually become relevant and the Reds do have enough talent to make some noise if Walt Jocketty moves beyond his apparent winter meeting plan of waiting for someone to just give him their #2 starter.
Next Up: Houston Astros
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Matt Holliday R LF 32 .288 .371 .484 139 517 84 149 36 1 21 85 62 96 9 4 132 Lance Berkman B RF 36 .269 .381 .471 125 427 68 115 22 2 20 77 77 90 5 5 132 Allen Craig R LF 27 .276 .329 .454 123 416 58 115 24 1 16 68 31 87 4 0 112 Yadier Molina R C 29 .284 .340 .397 139 479 44 136 25 1 9 63 39 43 6 4 101 Jon Jay L CF 27 .282 .335 .402 156 500 65 141 27 3 9 49 34 81 12 7 101 David Freese R 3B 29 .269 .323 .406 98 335 39 90 17 1 9 51 25 78 1 1 98 Matt Adams L 1B 23 .264 .315 .418 140 572 63 151 25 3 19 82 42 118 0 1 98 Rafael Furcal B SS 34 .263 .331 .389 99 388 60 102 19 3 8 37 38 55 11 5 96 Zack Cox L 3B 23 .278 .327 .377 156 608 66 169 27 0 11 65 39 124 1 3 92 Mark Hamilton L 1B 27 .249 .329 .380 103 329 42 82 22 0 7 41 37 89 0 0 94 Daniel Descalso L 3B 25 .263 .328 .378 150 471 64 124 28 4 6 54 42 75 4 3 93 Matt Carpenter L 3B 26 .248 .342 .366 136 492 55 122 26 4 8 52 66 103 6 3 94 Tyler Greene R SS 28 .233 .309 .364 136 450 66 105 20 3 11 42 41 137 22 4 84 Skip Schumaker L 2B 32 .272 .328 .352 134 452 55 123 22 1 4 41 37 58 3 2 86 Erik Komatsu L CF 24 .254 .328 .350 122 460 53 117 23 3 5 42 48 77 18 8 86 Aaron Luna R LF 25 .220 .330 .344 105 323 40 71 12 2 8 33 37 92 5 1 85 Bryan Anderson L C 25 .246 .308 .358 103 346 34 85 16 1 7 33 28 83 1 0 82 Ryan Theriot R SS 32 .269 .324 .332 142 524 62 141 21 3 2 45 40 62 13 9 80 Adron Chambers L CF 25 .240 .317 .350 146 471 64 113 16 9 6 41 44 115 16 10 83 Shane Robinson R LF 27 .250 .301 .345 83 296 40 74 15 2 3 30 19 36 9 3 76 Steve Hill R 1B 27 .234 .281 .383 85 337 32 79 15 1 11 41 21 99 1 0 80 Jose Garcia R SS 24 .256 .306 .327 142 493 56 126 19 2 4 42 32 96 20 10 74 Donovan Solano R 2B 24 .249 .287 .333 135 441 47 110 24 2 3 36 22 70 3 0 69 Daryl Jones L LF 25 .234 .311 .333 120 402 47 94 15 5 5 37 40 111 8 7 77 Tony Cruz R C 25 .237 .287 .352 104 355 34 84 19 2 6 43 25 79 1 2 74 Ryan Jackson R SS 24 .242 .297 .322 135 521 45 126 24 3 4 45 41 106 4 4 70 Pete Kozma R SS 24 .217 .279 .298 151 543 57 118 23 3 5 58 46 139 6 2 58 Freddie Bynum L 2B 32 .213 .256 .287 79 254 27 54 9 2 2 18 14 68 5 3 48 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Matt Holliday AV/84 Lance Berkman AV/94 PO/94 PO/110 Allen Craig AV/96 FR/112 FR/61 PO/114 FR/99 Yadier Molina VG FR/118 Jon Jay AV/118 VG/78 AV/85 AV/77 David Freese AV/98 AV/106 Matt Adams FR/102 Rafael Furcal AV/112 Zack Cox AV/135 Mark Hamilton FR/82 FR/112 FR/112 Daniel Descalso AV/106 AV/120 AV/88 PO/103 Matt Carpenter FR/75 Tyler Greene AV/104 AV/100 AV/123 AV/117 Skip Schumaker PO/109 AV/113 FR/113 AV/113 Erik Komatsu VG/89 FR/75 VG/107 Aaron Luna PO/119 VG/120 AV/136 Bryan Anderson AV Ryan Theriot AV/79 PO/96 Adron Chambers AV/120 AV/148 AV/104 Shane Robinson VG/106 VG/72 VG/101 Steve Hill FR FR/94 FR/139 PO/163 Jose Garcia AV/162 AV/116 AV/184 AV/113 FR/112 Donovan Solano VG/110 AV/90 PO/126 Daryl Jones AV/158 FR/147 AV/117 Tony Cruz VG Ryan Jackson AV/112 Pete Kozma VG/112 AV/106 VG/130 Freddie Bynum AV/108 AV/110 AV/128 AV/108 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Adam Wainwright R 30 3.12 14 8 25 25 173.3 160 60 13 48 155 121 Chris Carpenter R 37 3.49 12 8 29 29 201.0 194 78 16 49 151 108 Jaime Garcia L 25 3.58 12 8 31 31 183.7 179 73 14 55 148 105 Edwin Jackson R 28 3.71 12 9 31 30 198.7 196 82 16 64 152 101 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Shelby Miller R 21 4.01 9 8 25 25 132.3 123 59 10 68 126 94 Lance Lynn R 25 4.06 7 7 29 20 126.3 128 57 8 54 93 93 Kyle Lohse R 33 4.37 7 8 22 21 123.7 130 60 13 36 75 86 Jake Westbrook R 34 4.52 7 8 22 22 127.3 135 64 12 48 76 83 Bryan Augenstein R 25 4.75 5 6 29 12 83.3 93 44 9 26 58 79 Brandon Dickson R 27 4.83 7 10 28 24 149.0 173 80 16 47 96 78 Maikel Cleto R 23 4.89 6 8 25 22 116.0 120 63 11 67 90 77 Nick Additon L 24 5.07 6 9 26 25 138.3 148 78 19 60 91 74 Adam Ottavino R 26 5.21 6 8 22 21 114.0 126 66 13 59 80 72 Brian Broderick R 25 5.30 7 11 30 20 120.7 155 71 12 31 50 71 Joe Kelly R 24 5.69 6 10 24 21 110.7 127 70 11 73 71 66 John Gast L 23 6.01 5 11 25 24 139.3 168 93 17 78 79 63 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Jason Motte R 30 3.12 4 2 67 0 57.7 49 20 5 18 56 120 Fernando Salas R 27 3.21 4 3 59 0 61.7 52 22 6 21 60 117 Eduardo Sanchez R 23 3.24 3 2 39 0 41.7 33 15 3 22 43 116 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Marc Rzepczynski L 26 3.62 4 3 67 0 64.7 57 26 5 32 64 104 Mitchell Boggs R 28 3.79 3 2 57 0 71.3 68 30 6 26 57 99 Arthur Rhodes L 42 3.97 3 3 49 0 34.0 32 15 4 13 26 95 Chuckie Fick R 26 4.00 4 3 51 0 63.0 58 28 5 33 51 94 Jordan Swagerty R 22 4.24 4 4 36 12 85.0 82 40 10 34 66 89 Kyle McClellan R 28 4.26 6 6 54 8 99.3 99 47 13 34 65 88 Ron Mahay L 41 4.44 1 1 27 0 24.3 25 12 3 8 18 85 Jess Todd R 26 4.45 3 4 55 0 60.7 62 30 6 25 51 84 J.C. Romero L 36 4.46 1 1 45 0 34.3 34 17 3 22 25 84 Victor Marte R 31 4.52 3 4 49 0 61.7 62 31 6 30 44 83 Adam Reifer R 26 4.70 2 3 32 0 30.7 33 16 3 15 19 80 Ryan Franklin R 39 4.71 2 3 31 0 36.3 40 19 5 8 23 80 Rich Rundles L 31 4.74 2 3 43 0 38.0 41 20 4 18 25 79 Cory RauschenbergeR 27 4.81 2 3 39 0 58.0 63 31 6 25 27 78 Samuel Freeman L 25 4.98 2 2 54 0 59.7 61 33 6 39 42 75 Blaine Boyer R 30 5.36 2 3 38 3 50.3 59 30 6 23 26 70 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Lance Berkman .286 .393 .517 2403 8376 1412 2394 521 37 448 1552 1457 1638 105 138 Matt Holliday .296 .369 .494 2080 7855 1258 2326 536 35 315 1282 807 1352 144 126 Rafael Furcal .275 .338 .397 2022 8113 1289 2233 388 80 146 730 761 1104 350 94 Yadier Molina .274 .328 .375 2095 7148 612 1956 341 10 120 875 545 610 79 90 Jon Jay .276 .327 .394 1582 4982 628 1375 262 27 90 461 324 744 94 97 Skip Schumaker .279 .334 .361 1215 3908 503 1092 186 14 35 335 314 471 29 89 Allen Craig .269 .321 .436 1094 3616 477 971 207 9 127 563 266 689 34 105 David Freese .271 .325 .400 834 2834 316 769 136 9 70 419 203 592 10 98 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Chris Carpenter 173 119 0 3.78 442 415 2788 2794 1172 268 776 2097 112 Adam Wainwright 171 112 3 3.29 392 330 2297 2174 839 189 676 1954 119 Jaime Garcia 159 117 0 3.51 418 411 2469 2387 963 197 764 2041 107 Edwin Jackson 156 145 0 4.07 475 442 2830 2906 1280 274 1017 2129 98 Kyle Lohse 132 138 0 4.55 411 385 2272 2465 1147 274 678 1395 92 Jake Westbrook 103 108 0 4.42 334 293 1841 1976 904 168 621 1042 94 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Matt Holliday LF 53% 30% 10% 5% 2% Will Clark Paul O’Neill Bob Watson Lance Berkman RF 46% 27% 12% 9% 5% Chili Davis Ken Singleton Dwight Evans Allen Craig LF 15% 30% 23% 19% 13% Jose Guillen Jermaine Dye Xavier Nady Yadier Molina C 18% 36% 24% 17% 5% Joe Azcue Terry Steinbach Tony Pena Jon Jay CF 12% 19% 30% 25% 14% Terry Whitfield Ken Berry Ryan Sweeney David Freese 3B 6% 18% 26% 27% 23% Mike Blowers Wes Helms Brook Jacoby Matt Adams 1B 1% 9% 14% 32% 43% Scott Cooper Daryle Ward Domingo Martinez Rafael Furcal SS 19% 24% 30% 19% 8% Tony Fernandez Omar Vizquel Billy Rogell Zack Cox 3B 3% 7% 15% 28% 48% Tom O’Malley Robin Ventura Roy Howell Mark Hamilton 1B 0% 4% 10% 32% 53% Jerry Willard Lyle Overbay Reggie Jefferson Daniel Descalso 3B 2% 8% 19% 31% 40% Jeff Treadway Brent Gates Ernest Riles Matt Carpenter 3B 3% 10% 20% 30% 37% Scott Cooper Ernest Riles Mark Naehring Tyler Greene SS 15% 24% 31% 21% 10% Kurt Abbott Greg Gagne Julio Lugo Skip Schumaker 2B 5% 7% 12% 24% 52% Mark Loretta Manny Trillo Jim Gantner Erik Komatsu CF 4% 7% 19% 32% 39% Jorge Cortes Rick Manning Curt Ford Aaron Luna LF 1% 3% 7% 18% 72% Rob Teegarden Kevin Romine Tom Ealy Bryan Anderson C 3% 10% 19% 35% 34% Tom Nieto Darryl Cias Geronimo Gil Ryan Theriot SS 2% 6% 18% 31% 43% Brian Dallimore David Eckstein Ricky Gutierrez Adron Chambers CF 1% 4% 11% 25% 60% Roger Bernadina Herm Winningham Angel Pagan Shane Robinson LF 0% 1% 2% 8% 88% Kevin Estrada Kevin Kasper Dave Francia Steve Hill 1B 0% 0% 1% 10% 88% Terry Lee Fred Cooley Terrel Hansen Jose Garcia SS 0% 3% 13% 28% 56% Jose Castro Pedro Chavez Jonathan Herrera Donovan Solano 2B 0% 1% 2% 8% 89% Jorge Velandia Alvaro Espinoza Joshua Lansford Daryl Jones LF 0% 1% 2% 4% 93% Kevin Koslofski Mike Neill Vernon Thomas Tony Cruz C 1% 3% 6% 22% 68% Salomon Manriquez Eli Whiteside Pat Cline Ryan Jackson SS 1% 2% 7% 20% 71% Tim Naehring David Lamb Oswaldo Navarro Pete Kozma SS 0% 1% 3% 8% 88% Gil Velazquez Scott Powers Travis Metcalf Freddie Bynum 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Pablo Martinez Dave Matranga Chris Petersen Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Adam Wainwright SP 70% 25% 5% Erik Hanson Larry Christenson Bob Welch Jason Motte RP 46% 43% 11% Dan Wheeler Mike Schooler J.J. Putz Fernando Salas RP 39% 49% 12% Trevor Hoffman Stan Belinda Cecilio Guante Eduardo Sanchez RP 35% 45% 20% Si Johnson Brian Bruney Jose Valverde Chris Carpenter SP 40% 51% 8% Rick Reuschel Greg Maddux Doyle Alexander Jaime Garcia SP 41% 53% 6% Glendon Rusch Mark Mulder Jim Abbott Marc Rzepczynski RP 20% 51% 29% Jim Poole Dennys Reyes Armando Almanza Edwin Jackson SP 31% 57% 11% Jeff Weaver Mark Bomback Sidney Ponson Mitchell Boggs RP 12% 52% 35% Albie Lopez Jay Tessmer Brian Schmack Arthur Rhodes RP 23% 28% 49% Mike Stanton Rick Honeycutt Brian Shouse Chuckie Fick RP 11% 38% 51% Mark Acre Brandon Puffer Mike Schultz Shelby Miller SP 21% 56% 23% Jason Schmidt Tim Hudson Steve Bedrosian Lance Lynn SP 17% 54% 29% Pat Rapp Keith Macwhorter Kevin Lomon Jordan Swagerty RP 3% 33% 64% Rich Yett Victor Santos Charlie Kerfeld Kyle McClellan RP 2% 29% 69% Mario Brito Willie Fraser Travis Harper Kyle Lohse SP 7% 40% 54% Dave Eiland Pat Ahearne Mickey Weston Ron Mahay RP 18% 19% 63% Joe Hoerner Buddy Groom Jeff Fassero Jess Todd RP 4% 26% 70% Derek Hasselhoff Bobby Moore Edwin Nunez J.C. Romero RP 10% 27% 63% Kevin Hickey Vic Darensbourg Dave Righetti Jake Westbrook SP 3% 30% 67% Aaron Sele Omar Olivares Pat Ahearne Victor Marte RP 2% 24% 73% Marcus Gwyn Miguel Saladin Dave Wainhouse Adam Reifer RP 7% 19% 74% Tom Dukes Dave Pagan Steve Barber Ryan Franklin RP 12% 21% 67% Boom-Boom Beck Dick Hall Orlando Pena Rich Rundles RP 4% 18% 78% Joey Eischen Bryan Clark Matt Dunbar Bryan Augenstein SP 2% 16% 83% Brady Raggio Tony Pena Mike Thompson Cory RauschenbergeRP 1% 14% 85% Robert Paulk Andy Nezelek Robert Tenenini Brandon Dickson SP 1% 17% 82% Tim Harikkala LaTroy Hawkins Joel Pineiro Maikel Cleto SP 1% 19% 80% Richard Bartlett Bill Mooneyham Matt Wright Samuel Freeman RP 0% 11% 88% Tom Thurberg Carlos Cabassa Dean Brueggemann Nick Additon SP 0% 10% 90% Benj Sampson Bryan Braswell Pedro Martinez Adam Ottavino SP 0% 10% 90% Wilton Chavez Steven White Bobby Rodgers Brian Broderick SP 0% 7% 93% Tim Kester Chris Holt Nick Blackburn Blaine Boyer RP 0% 7% 93% Steve Mintz Bob Scanlan Chuck Smith Joe Kelly SP 0% 2% 98% Jason Phillips Chad Paronto Jeff Bumgarner John Gast SP 0% 0% 100% John Koronka Mike Hinckley Keith Seiler Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Matt Holliday 32% 43% 33% 14% 0% 11% 31% 3% Lance Berkman 14% 56% 30% 0% 0% 8% 34% 0% Allen Craig 17% 5% 13% 0% 0% 2% 5% 0% Yadier Molina 27% 10% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% Jon Jay 21% 5% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 3% David Freese 13% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Matt Adams 6% 1% 3% 1% 5% 6% 1% 0% Rafael Furcal 8% 7% 2% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% Zack Cox 16% 3% 2% 2% 0% 2% 2% 0% Mark Hamilton 3% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Daniel Descalso 7% 4% 1% 1% 4% 0% 1% 0% Matt Carpenter 2% 11% 1% 1% 4% 0% 1% 0% Tyler Greene 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 14% Skip Schumaker 14% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Erik Komatsu 3% 4% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 10% Aaron Luna 0% 6% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Bryan Anderson 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Ryan Theriot 11% 4% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 3% Adron Chambers 1% 2% 0% 0% 42% 0% 0% 2% Shane Robinson 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Steve Hill 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jose Garcia 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 10% Donovan Solano 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Daryl Jones 0% 1% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% Tony Cruz 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ryan Jackson 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% Pete Kozma 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Freddie Bynum 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Adam Wainwright 33% 87% 50% 16% 93% Jason Motte 37% 84% 75% 13% 77% Fernando Salas 31% 78% 71% 9% 76% Eduardo Sanchez 35% 73% 77% 0% 91% Chris Carpenter 10% 71% 7% 34% 92% Jaime Garcia 11% 71% 16% 9% 94% Marc Rzepczynski 15% 64% 77% 0% 88% Edwin Jackson 6% 59% 8% 2% 92% Mitchell Boggs 9% 50% 19% 2% 86% Arthur Rhodes 16% 51% 21% 15% 68% Chuckie Fick 8% 42% 22% 0% 85% Shelby Miller 4% 42% 70% 0% 92% Lance Lynn 2% 38% 7% 0% 98% Jordan Swagerty 2% 25% 12% 0% 44% Kyle McClellan 1% 21% 0% 3% 41% Kyle Lohse 1% 18% 1% 13% 67% Ron Mahay 11% 37% 16% 18% 67% Jess Todd 3% 24% 30% 1% 74% J.C. Romero 10% 28% 12% 0% 82% Jake Westbrook 0% 11% 0% 1% 74% Victor Marte 1% 16% 4% 0% 70% Adam Reifer 4% 18% 4% 2% 74% Ryan Franklin 9% 27% 4% 55% 42% Rich Rundles 4% 15% 3% 1% 66% Bryan Augenstein 1% 14% 2% 13% 58% Cory Rauschenberge 1% 11% 0% 2% 60% Brandon Dickson 0% 4% 0% 4% 61% Maikel Cleto 0% 4% 11% 0% 72% Samuel Freeman 0% 8% 4% 0% 72% Nick Additon 0% 2% 0% 0% 22% Adam Ottavino 0% 2% 1% 0% 62% Brian Broderick 0% 1% 0% 32% 70% Blaine Boyer 0% 5% 0% 0% 66% Joe Kelly 0% 0% 0% 0% 64% John Gast 0% 0% 0% 0% 45% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 17, 2011 at 02:15 AM | 31 comment(s)
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1. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: December 17, 2011 at 02:40 AM (#4018225)Am I misreading this or was there supposed to be a different name for the first Westbrook?
Cosigned on the Pujols request. And I'd love to see his projected career numbers.
Pitching is a little top heavy though. I think they are in pretty good shape. Lack depth in the rotation for when someone goes down though.
Also, is that a HoF line I spy from Berkman?
Lohse?
weird
Edit. Coke to sweatpants
Leonard Bernstein?
Not if history is any guide. Career not long enough, no milestones. Giambi, Walker, Delgado, W Clark, J Clark, Reggie Smith, Brian Giles, Boog Powell, Singleton are all in roughly the same OPS+ and PA range as that projection.
Given at the moment we have Bagwell, Edgar, Raines on the outside and Walker and McGriff not even close, the standards for corner players are very high right now.
That projection puts Berkman near 10000 PA. That's happier company but still a mixed bag. Actually not a lot of corner players in this group. AROD, Chipper, Griffey, Brett, Morgan, Carew, Boggs. The corner guys are Vlad (better chance than Lance I think), Sheffield (roids will keep him out if nothing else), Reggie (500+ HR), McGriff (nope), B Williams (pretty Berkman-like), Palmeiro (again with the roids), Gwynn (3000 hits, high BA) and Winfield (3000 hits). The only one who's made it without a milestone is Williams although Chipper should be the second.
So my guess is no but he's pretty close.
Sheep mentality?
From Twitter:
He posted a 120 ops+ last season, if that is his actual ability, I don't think anyone thinks he's going to get better, but this projection has him posting a 98 ops+, he's never posted below 109 in the majors(true only 667 pa in his ml career)
Likely true, but I give the player the benefit of the doubt until he fails. I fully expect Freese to be a 110 ops+ player over the next five seasons. I don't think it's a stretch to say he could be a 120 or better.
However, I like Craig's 112 OPS+ and I'll take a 100 OPS+ from our starting CF. We really need at least one of our corner IF to hit better than 110 OPS+, though.
Harveys (#15)... He's 28 this year--prime years, if healthy. I think his health is the big variable; his true talent is likely good D with 110 OPS+ bat... at least for the next 3 years or so.
But he's not young. He will be 29 in April.
He struck out 75 times in in 333 at bats in 2011 and 134 in his 573 major league at bats. I know with guys like Drew Stubbs around that seems like no big deal but if all the appearances had come in a full 2011 season Freese would have been just outside the top ten in the league in strikeouts.
He made the top ten in grounding into double plays.
He better start hitting for some more power because that is a fair amount of baggage to be carrying as a player and still be considered a positive.
Maybe the "late start", which was basically one year off.
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