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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Sunday, January 08, 20122012 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati RedsThe Reds had a reasonable argument at being competitive in the NL Central last season (ZiPS had them tied with Brewers, just ahead of Cardinals), but the starting pitching pretty much abandoned the team, with the exception of Johnny Cueto. The addition of Mat Latos obviously improves the rotation, but the team has a bit less depth now and there are less emergency options in the rotation with Travis Wood in Chicago (ZiPS still believes in him enough to give him a ERA+ of 100 there) and Matt Maloney on the Twins (85 ERA+, still enough to be in the top 5 projected starters for Reds). Yonder Alonso is a loss, but they did address the correct need and though he hit well in his 2011 cup of coffee, Alonso's minor league performances suggest that he's a bit overhyped. Among hitters, the Reds actually have a pretty decent field of second-tier prospects.While the team could use an extra impact bat (despite finishing 2nd in the league in runs scored, they only had a 98 OPS+), but at this point, they probably need to sign a few low-risk, upside pitcher signings, simply to bolster the organizational lack at the upper levels. The very few minor league free agents they've signed (Sean Gallagher, Luis Atilano, Clayton Tanner) really shouldn't pitch in the majors - Gallagher had promise, but he hasn't pitched well at all in a long time. If the Reds aren't going to spend a lot of money and go after Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt, they really need to be in on guys like Paul Maholm or Jeff Francis. Next Up: Kansas City Royals
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Joey Votto L 1B 28 .294 .402 .529 150 544 93 160 34 2 30 102 96 124 11 5 148 Jay Bruce L RF 25 .260 .340 .474 152 546 81 142 25 4 28 90 65 148 8 6 116 Brandon Phillips R 2B 31 .279 .331 .436 150 603 87 168 33 4 18 80 42 83 17 10 104 Chris Heisey R LF 27 .258 .317 .446 134 395 59 102 19 2 17 57 29 94 10 2 102 Juan Francisco L 3B 25 .267 .297 .480 143 529 65 141 33 4 24 85 21 141 2 1 104 Scott Rolen R 3B 37 .260 .315 .441 84 311 38 81 23 3 9 51 22 50 1 1 100 Devin Mesoraco R C 24 .248 .322 .432 136 484 57 120 30 4 17 68 48 117 1 2 100 Miguel Cairo R 3B 38 .265 .328 .403 90 211 27 56 9 1 6 28 16 32 3 2 95 Drew Stubbs R CF 27 .240 .317 .388 154 578 87 139 24 5 17 60 61 190 37 9 88 Ryan Hanigan R C 31 .267 .358 .355 91 273 28 73 9 0 5 31 35 34 0 0 92 Henry Rodriguez B 2B 22 .279 .315 .393 156 641 64 179 33 2 12 77 31 108 31 15 89 Todd Frazier R 3B 26 .242 .307 .423 148 532 70 129 30 3 20 71 44 140 13 6 94 Neftali Soto R 1B 23 .245 .290 .450 140 542 59 133 24 3 27 80 28 145 0 1 95 Donald Lutz L 1B 23 .262 .306 .417 149 576 65 151 23 3 20 76 30 170 5 6 92 Daniel Dorn L 1B 27 .233 .300 .421 121 420 50 98 24 2 17 60 35 135 2 0 91 Zack Cozart R SS 26 .253 .304 .398 130 518 76 131 28 4 13 52 34 108 12 3 86 Eric Campbell R 3B 26 .239 .302 .385 130 468 53 112 24 1 14 61 37 97 3 3 83 Edgar Renteria R SS 34 .254 .309 .347 98 331 37 84 14 1 5 38 27 60 4 2 76 Corky Miller R C 36 .230 .317 .348 59 178 21 41 9 0 4 21 18 34 0 0 78 Chris Valaika R 2B 26 .255 .287 .362 142 517 52 132 24 2 9 50 22 102 2 1 73 Denis Phipps R CF 26 .242 .287 .374 147 554 64 134 28 6 11 57 34 170 12 8 76 Cody Puckett R 2B 25 .221 .274 .377 134 506 54 112 30 2 15 64 32 162 13 3 73 Daryl Jones L LF 25 .236 .311 .350 120 403 47 95 15 5 7 38 39 115 8 7 77 Didi Gregorius L SS 22 .259 .296 .359 127 529 53 137 18 7 7 47 26 88 13 12 75 Brodie Greene R 2B 24 .247 .290 .341 129 510 48 126 17 5 7 49 29 99 22 9 69 Ryan LaMarre R CF 23 .245 .307 .317 122 470 50 115 15 2 5 38 35 122 36 16 68 Paul Janish R SS 29 .238 .302 .327 110 315 35 75 17 1 3 28 25 49 3 2 69 Kris Negron R SS 26 .222 .279 .336 144 527 66 117 18 6 10 45 32 139 17 4 64 Mike Costanzo L 3B 28 .206 .271 .341 115 408 43 84 19 3 10 52 36 151 3 2 63 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Joey Votto AV/84 Jay Bruce AV/70 Brandon Phillips VG/61 Chris Heisey AV/110 AV/118 AV/117 Juan Francisco AV/117 AV/139 AV/115 Scott Rolen VG/56 Devin Mesoraco AV Miguel Cairo AV/103 AV/90 AV/93 FR/96 Drew Stubbs VG/112 AV/77 VG/114 Ryan Hanigan VG Henry Rodriguez FR/149 AV/110 PO/104 Todd Frazier AV/87 FR/119 FR/92 AV/119 Neftali Soto AV/101 FR/128 Donald Lutz AV/133 FR/115 FR/115 Daniel Dorn AV/94 AV/95 FR/99 Zack Cozart VG/94 Eric Campbell FR/108 PO/126 FR/125 FR/123 FR/123 Edgar Renteria FR/94 Corky Miller VG Chris Valaika FR/106 AV/102 FR/93 Denis Phipps AV/126 FR/141 AV/126 Cody Puckett FR/123 AV/118 AV/85 FR/118 FR/89 Daryl Jones AV/158 FR/147 AV/117 Didi Gregorius VG/146 Brodie Greene FR/101 AV/119 FR/136 AV/120 FR/110 Ryan LaMarre FR/111 AV/91 Paul Janish AV/108 AV/98 VG/72 Kris Negron VG/104 AV/120 FR/108 AV/112 Mike Costanzo AV/123 FR/101 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Mat Latos R 24 3.38 15 9 32 32 191.7 168 72 19 56 189 119 Johnny Cueto R 26 3.63 10 7 29 29 173.3 167 70 15 56 123 110 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Homer Bailey R 26 4.28 9 9 28 27 157.7 161 75 18 49 124 94 Sam LeCure R 28 4.37 5 5 34 13 107.0 105 52 15 36 88 92 Mike Leake R 24 4.42 9 9 28 25 159.0 166 78 23 43 113 91 Bronson Arroyo R 35 4.84 9 11 27 27 169.3 180 91 30 45 96 83 Sean Gallagher R 26 5.57 4 7 30 13 85.7 94 53 13 48 59 72 Luis Atilano R 27 5.63 4 6 13 13 64.0 79 40 9 22 29 71 Brandon Hynick R 27 5.76 5 9 26 20 114.0 137 73 18 46 65 70 Pedro Villarreal R 24 5.83 6 10 28 24 125.0 151 81 22 42 74 69 Dallas Buck R 27 5.98 2 4 9 9 40.7 53 27 5 20 18 67 Clayton Tanner L 24 5.98 6 10 24 23 117.3 140 78 19 57 64 67 Chad Reineke R 30 6.22 5 10 27 20 114.3 145 79 20 47 61 65 Andrew Brackman R 26 6.68 4 9 31 18 97.0 115 72 15 80 62 60 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Sean Marshall L 29 2.74 8 3 76 0 72.3 60 22 5 21 80 147 Bill Bray L 29 3.46 3 2 64 0 41.7 35 16 4 16 42 116 Nick Masset R 30 3.60 5 3 74 0 70.0 63 28 6 29 68 111 Francisco Cordero R 37 3.64 5 3 61 0 59.3 55 24 5 24 44 110 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Aroldis Chapman L 24 3.87 6 5 57 7 76.7 60 33 8 54 98 104 Jose Arredondo R 28 4.13 5 4 63 0 65.3 57 30 7 38 68 97 Logan Ondrusek R 27 4.13 4 4 66 0 65.3 63 30 6 27 44 97 Jeremy Horst L 26 4.21 3 3 47 0 66.3 67 31 6 24 49 95 Carlos Fisher R 29 4.28 3 3 49 0 61.0 57 29 7 30 54 94 Josh Judy R 26 4.40 3 3 53 0 59.3 58 29 7 27 55 91 Donnie Joseph L 24 4.98 2 3 59 0 59.7 60 33 8 34 59 81 Jordan Smith R 26 5.30 3 4 57 0 56.0 65 33 8 20 29 76 Kanekoa Texeira R 26 5.93 2 4 39 2 60.7 74 40 9 29 33 68 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Edgar Renteria .284 .341 .395 2229 8439 1227 2398 446 31 142 951 735 1210 297 92 Joey Votto .289 .382 .496 2155 7927 1200 2288 474 36 367 1324 1171 1559 132 133 Scott Rolen .278 .358 .484 2232 8178 1306 2276 576 50 335 1409 932 1506 120 119 Brandon Phillips .270 .319 .421 1987 7818 1071 2111 394 52 227 990 498 1078 220 95 Jay Bruce .253 .333 .457 2048 7342 1050 1855 334 46 359 1122 859 1857 84 109 Drew Stubbs .244 .318 .387 1460 5483 819 1339 226 36 162 565 553 1631 273 88 Chris Heisey .254 .313 .431 1163 3270 481 829 150 14 134 456 239 731 56 98 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Mat Latos 211 138 0 3.32 460 461 2796 2375 1031 294 826 2860 119 Johnny Cueto 143 116 0 3.80 424 424 2505 2419 1058 258 830 1843 107 Bronson Arroyo 133 135 1 4.44 395 359 2302 2382 1135 338 668 1462 99 Homer Bailey 111 108 0 4.40 344 341 1963 1986 960 242 648 1576 92 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Joey Votto 1B 67% 22% 6% 4% 1% Todd Helton Will Clark Jason Giambi Jay Bruce RF 19% 29% 19% 18% 15% Jesse Barfiefld Rusty Greer Jeremy Hermida Brandon Phillips 2B 27% 18% 19% 20% 16% Frank Bolling Johnny Logan Bob Johnson Chris Heisey LF 7% 20% 21% 26% 26% Brandon Berger Jay Knoblauh Jose Malave Juan Francisco 3B 10% 27% 27% 21% 15% Jim Presley Roy Howell Jeff Hamilton Scott Rolen 3B 9% 18% 23% 26% 24% Matt Williams Art Howe Jim Morrison Devin Mesoraco C 19% 33% 23% 18% 8% Hector Villanueva Charles Johnson Mandy Romero Miguel Cairo 3B 4% 9% 16% 26% 46% Tony Graffanino Jim Davenport Luis Salazar Drew Stubbs CF 10% 15% 28% 27% 20% Mark Bradley Chris Latham Bo Porter Ryan Hanigan C 9% 26% 27% 26% 12% Tom Satriano Jerry Grote Joe Azcue Henry Rodriguez 2B 13% 9% 13% 23% 42% Robin Yount Bill Knickerbocker Josh Barfield Todd Frazier 3B 3% 11% 21% 29% 35% Sean Rodriguez Brandon Wood Wade Rowdon Neftali Soto 1B 1% 7% 12% 29% 51% Adell Davenport Brett Harper Julian Yan Donald Lutz 1B 1% 5% 8% 22% 65% Dale Holman Glenn Davis Daryle Ward Daniel Dorn 1B 0% 4% 7% 25% 64% Greg Sparks Tyler Brilinski Oreste Marrero Zack Cozart SS 9% 18% 31% 26% 16% Josh Wilson Rafael Ramirez Trevor Plouffe Eric Campbell 3B 1% 4% 9% 18% 69% Tony Zuniga Brad Seitzer Craig Walck Edgar Renteria SS 3% 6% 14% 26% 51% Gene Michael Dennis Hocking Marty Marion Corky Miller C 4% 8% 12% 26% 51% Rick Cerone Tony Pena Rick Ferrell Chris Valaika 2B 1% 2% 3% 10% 84% Ray Navarrete Brennan King Gregorio Petit Denis Phipps CF 0% 1% 5% 17% 77% Marvin Garrison Xavier Paul Mitch Maier Cody Puckett 2B 2% 4% 7% 16% 71% Wade Rowdon Bob Bafia Jeff Eure Daryl Jones LF 0% 1% 2% 4% 93% Kevin Koslofski Mike Neill Vernon Thomas Didi Gregorius SS 3% 4% 10% 18% 65% Gary DiSarcina Terry Crowley Luis Quinones Brodie Greene 2B 3% 2% 3% 8% 83% Matt Witkowski Ron Gardenhire Freddie Bynum Ryan LaMarre CF 1% 2% 6% 13% 78% Turner Ward Jeff McNeely Darren Lewis Paul Janish SS 1% 1% 7% 21% 71% Kevin Baez Stu Cole Pedro Lopez Kris Negron SS 2% 2% 7% 17% 72% Hector Tiburcio Nelson Castro Andres Duncan Mike Costanzo 3B 1% 1% 1% 2% 95% Tom Quinlan Sean Mcnally Ryan Owens Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Sean Marshall RP 74% 21% 5% Don Mossi Joe Sambito Willie Hernandez Mat Latos SP 65% 30% 5% Roy Oswalt Jake Peavy Andy Benes Bill Bray RP 34% 46% 20% George Sherrill Alan Embree Will Ohman Nick Masset RP 26% 55% 19% Ryan Dempster Todd Jones Hector Carrasco Johnny Cueto SP 53% 42% 5% Storm Davis John Farrell Bobby Jones Francisco Cordero RP 32% 42% 26% Moe DrabowskyShigetoshi Hasegawa Giovanni Carrara Aroldis Chapman RP 22% 54% 24% Ken Brett John Rocker Mitch Williams Jose Arredondo RP 13% 46% 41% Jim Stoops Doug Bochtler Derrick Turnbow Logan Ondrusek RP 13% 45% 41% Matt Ryan Scott Munter Sean Green Jeremy Horst RP 11% 50% 40% Bill Moloney Gabe Gonzalez Mike Venafro Carlos Fisher RP 6% 38% 56% David Holdridge Mike Butcher Marc Pisciotta Homer Bailey SP 17% 58% 25% Frank Pastore Aaron Harang Brian Kingman Sam LeCure SP 4% 41% 55% Andy McGaffigan Francisco Oliveras Nelson Cruz Josh Judy RP 8% 34% 57% Darrin Chapin Jorge Vasquez Todd Bussa Mike Leake SP 9% 54% 37% Justin Germano Steve Woodard Edgar Gonzalez Bronson Arroyo SP 6% 28% 65% Bill Gullickson Mike Caldwell Jack Billingham Donnie Joseph RP 2% 22% 77% Kevin Lovingier Taylor Tankersley Mike Bumatay Jordan Smith RP 1% 13% 86% Brian Allen Arty Santos Trey Witte Sean Gallagher SP 0% 4% 96% Darwin Peguero Mike Gordon Jose Vaquedano Luis Atilano SP 1% 11% 89% Ryan Hutchison Danny Muegge Cristhian Martinez Brandon Hynick SP 0% 4% 96% Pat Ahearne Jim Magrane Steve Finch Pedro Villarreal SP 0% 4% 96% Dane Johnson Jason Jones Cameron Reimers Kanekoa Texeira RP 0% 3% 97% Martin Rivas Blake Mayo William Vaughan Dallas Buck SP 1% 7% 92% Sean Lowe Mark AmbroseJohn Van Benschoten Clayton Tanner SP 0% 2% 98% Joe Beimel Josh Stewart Matt White Chad Reineke SP 1% 3% 97% Jason Roach Vicente Bonilla Tim McClaskey Andrew Brackman SP 0% 0% 100% Jon Leicester Keith Davis Travis Hughes Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Joey Votto 41% 77% 68% 9% 1% 48% 60% 5% Jay Bruce 5% 11% 30% 1% 4% 43% 10% 2% Brandon Phillips 19% 5% 8% 6% 3% 6% 3% 8% Chris Heisey 5% 2% 11% 0% 1% 2% 2% 2% Juan Francisco 8% 0% 30% 6% 5% 19% 2% 0% Scott Rolen 9% 3% 13% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% Devin Mesoraco 2% 3% 7% 3% 4% 3% 1% 0% Miguel Cairo 14% 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Drew Stubbs 1% 1% 1% 0% 6% 3% 0% 79% Ryan Hanigan 14% 29% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Henry Rodriguez 17% 1% 4% 13% 2% 5% 2% 46% Todd Frazier 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 7% 0% 4% Neftali Soto 1% 0% 14% 0% 2% 36% 1% 0% Donald Lutz 5% 0% 5% 0% 3% 10% 1% 0% Daniel Dorn 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% Zack Cozart 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% Eric Campbell 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Edgar Renteria 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Corky Miller 3% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Chris Valaika 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Denis Phipps 1% 0% 0% 1% 14% 0% 0% 0% Cody Puckett 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 4% Daryl Jones 0% 1% 1% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% Didi Gregorius 5% 0% 1% 0% 25% 0% 0% 4% Brodie Greene 2% 0% 1% 0% 6% 1% 0% 17% Ryan LaMarre 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 76% Paul Janish 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Kris Negron 0% 0% 1% 0% 11% 1% 0% 4% Mike Costanzo 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Sean Marshall 72% 94% 95% 18% 93% Mat Latos 31% 86% 80% 8% 69% Bill Bray 34% 73% 79% 4% 76% Nick Masset 26% 76% 75% 0% 79% Johnny Cueto 16% 77% 3% 4% 82% Francisco Cordero 26% 68% 10% 2% 83% Aroldis Chapman 17% 65% 98% 0% 76% Jose Arredondo 9% 52% 87% 0% 62% Logan Ondrusek 9% 52% 2% 2% 68% Jeremy Horst 8% 46% 7% 4% 67% Carlos Fisher 4% 37% 48% 0% 57% Homer Bailey 2% 37% 11% 5% 56% Sam LeCure 2% 35% 23% 4% 31% Josh Judy 6% 36% 56% 0% 56% Mike Leake 1% 28% 2% 15% 23% Bronson Arroyo 1% 14% 0% 26% 10% Donnie Joseph 1% 14% 78% 0% 41% Jordan Smith 1% 10% 0% 5% 32% Sean Gallagher 0% 2% 2% 0% 30% Luis Atilano 0% 3% 0% 5% 29% Brandon Hynick 0% 1% 0% 0% 16% Pedro Villarreal 0% 0% 0% 3% 7% Kanekoa Texeira 0% 2% 0% 0% 35% Dallas Buck 0% 3% 0% 1% 64% Clayton Tanner 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% Chad Reineke 0% 1% 1% 1% 9% Andrew Brackman 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Brewers Orioles Rockies Braves Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
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1. awebgsu Posted: January 08, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4031686)That's a little less than 1 homer every 9 innings. Seems about average.
Using the ZiPS Starter -> Reliever conversion tool.
9-9, 25 GS, 150 IP, 128 H, 72 R, 17 HR, 102 BB, 176 K, 4.32 ERA.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111115&content_id=25981000&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
Is that avg for a guy who has a 11.5/9 K rate and a higher than avg GB/FO ratio?
His park is an issue. HR park factors for GAB over the last three years:
2009: 1.176
2010: 1.136
2011: 1.314
3/2/1 Wt avg: 1.23
So figure he'd look better in a more neutral park.
If he gets to his career projection, Votto's gonna be an interesting HoF debate. Looks light unless he adds a 2nd MVP.
I'm surprised ZiPS didn't go into an infinite loop of double-checking when it saw that Cairo projection. :-)
And a wicked good projection for Marshall -- starting to think the Cubs didn't get enough for him.
Wow, didn't know Dan made that. Very cool.
In the majors, he threw 6 1/3 innings, gave up 13 hits, 2 walks, and 1 wild pitch, but because the hits were all singles that were spread out they only led to 2 runs and an ERA of 2.84. The Royals sent him down to the minors and the hits kept on coming, but he wasn't so lucky with the runs:
AAA with the Royals, he had 10 1/3 innings and gave up 7 runs on 12 hits and 7 walks.
In AA with the Yankees, he had 11 innings and gave up 18 runs on 24 hits.
AAA again, 4 1/3 innings and gave up 13 runs on 16 hits and 3 walks.
So from AA to the majors he gave up 65 hits in 32 innings, which seems like an impressively bad hit rate for a guy who's never really been that bad of a pitcher.
Given the intro graphs from Dan, I seem to think the Reds might have got rid of Wood a little too early. I still think he has a decent chance at being an average NL starter. Someone like that would be a huge for the Reds in '11 and beyond. Marshall will be a stud in the pen, but I'm not too confident about the trade.
If Mesoraco and Cozart produce like that from the C and SS position I'll be perfectly happy.
For Bruce (OPS+)
11 ZiPS - 123 Actual - 119
10 ZiPS - 102 Actual - 124
09 ZiPS - 115 Actual - 101
08 ZiPS - 101 Actual - 97
C: Mesoraco - AV
Hanigan - VG
since they figure to split the playing time
1B: Joey Votto - AV
and he won a gold glove
2B: Brandon Phillips - VG
SS: Zack Cozart - VG
3B: Scott Rolen - VG
although I'm a little concerned by who gets the reps *when* he gets hurt
LF: Chris Heisey - AV
I'm convinced he's better than that in LF if he can play an "AV" CF
CF: Drew Stubbs - AV
he could be great
RF: Jay Bruce - AV
was just "EX" last year and will likely bounce back to above-average
For Bruce (OPS+)
11 ZiPS - 123 Actual - 119
10 ZiPS - 102 Actual - 124
09 ZiPS - 115 Actual - 101
08 ZiPS - 101 Actual - 97
Thanks dan. I went back and reread the '10 and '11 projection threads, and my only contribution to either with regard to Bruce was last year:
In addition I had already forgotten how much Bruce cooled of in the 2nd half. My mind has wonderful memories of May baseball I suppose.
I hope for '12 I'm finally right about being wrong about Bruce's production vs. projections. Let's hope one of these days he gets a better feel for controlling the zone.
I would rather have a 24-25 year old lefty with 4+ years of control that has a chance to be an average starter than a stud reliever on a 1 year deal. That's especially true given the current state of the Cubs. For the Reds, it's a little trickier of a question. It's not like they dealt from a position of strength to get Marshall.
I probably would too. But then I'd probably have rather had Marshall in the rotation the last couple of years (and especially last year's disaster) and I might well rather have the stud reliever signed to an extension, so we can't trust my opinion.
But my point was given how much teams value relievers -- which is a lot more than we tend to value them around here -- and if we were offering "the best reliever on the market" then I'm not sure there wasn't the chance to get more than Wood.
And, let's see if we can hijack a Reds ZiPS thread (doesn't happen often) -- given the Cubs should be running $130+ M payrolls year after year after year, "years of control" is not a particularly important concept for them. Never a bad thing of course but it shouldn't often be a key factor in deciding between an average and a good player. Unless the "next good Cubs team" ain't arriving until 2016, no reason Marshall couldn't have been part of the next good Cubs team. (And he still could if we sign him next offseason.)
Well played!
Stubbs is already 27 years old. He is as good as he is ever going to be.
Defensively he is very good. But he's not taking a step into Garry Maddoxx territory or anything.
If the Reds can keep some starters healthy this team could well win 90 games.
Eh, Francisco won't be much worse than Encarnacion ever was...
Pitchers do have their ups and downs, but I suspect you are correct.
Leake looks to be solid
Have you ever seen Francisco play? Garrett Atkins had more range than Francisco does.
-- MWE
EDIT: and I don't understand how he gets an "AV" up there.
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