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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Monday, January 30, 20122012 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland IndiansThe 2011 Indians hung around in the divisional race far longer than they had any right to, so kudos to them for being relevant ahead of schedule - the Tigers were simply a stronger team and it was hard to keep that going for an entire season.The Indians still aren't really ready to compete with the Tigers, but there are at least some encouraging signs. The team still has all sorts of interesting infielders and despite only finishing 9th in the league in scoring, the team has offense at all the hardest positions to find offense, the problem being the lack of success the organization has had at finding that average first baseman or leftfielder to sit in the middle of the lineup. It's not for lack of trying, but for whatever reason, Matt LaPorta's never improved past the Ben Broussard "below-average but not horrible" tier and Beau Mills just never became a major league caliber hitter. Ubaldo Jimenez makes the rotation a lot better than it was heading into 2011. Still, the team has more serviceable starting pitchers, the types that are below-average and above replacement level, than actual good ones and the offense hasn't developed at this point to the extent that it can paper over the weakness (as Detroit did last year). For that next step forward, in addition to that missing bat, a couple of the Indians's stable of cromulent 4th/5th starters need to show more improvement. Probably a .500 team again, but not a serious threat to the Tigers unless the wheels really come off. Next Up: Arizona Diamondbacks
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Carlos Santana B C 26 .246 .361 .449 142 499 80 123 31 2 22 78 91 122 6 2 123 Shin-Soo Choo L RF 29 .268 .360 .430 123 456 62 122 23 3 15 62 58 111 15 5 118 Travis Hafner L DH 35 .259 .346 .423 93 324 39 84 17 0 12 46 38 74 1 0 112 Asdrubal Cabrera B SS 26 .275 .333 .422 151 590 82 162 33 3 16 74 46 110 15 5 107 Jason Kipnis L 2B 25 .258 .320 .420 148 578 82 149 28 9 16 67 49 134 13 2 103 Grady Sizemore L CF 29 .243 .319 .434 82 325 45 79 20 3 12 47 32 83 8 4 106 Matt LaPorta R 1B 27 .253 .321 .422 128 446 54 113 25 1 16 63 40 100 1 1 103 Michael Brantley L LF 25 .270 .330 .367 140 566 84 153 26 4 7 50 50 78 24 7 93 Jose Lopez R 3B 28 .268 .296 .419 143 530 61 142 32 0 16 70 19 58 4 1 95 Lonnie Chisenhall L 3B 23 .255 .312 .404 144 545 74 139 28 4 15 73 38 108 2 1 96 Shelley Duncan R LF 32 .228 .309 .398 112 364 45 83 20 0 14 58 39 97 1 0 94 Kosuke Fukudome L RF 35 .240 .335 .370 129 433 52 104 23 3 9 37 61 94 5 6 95 Ezequiel Carrera L CF 25 .263 .329 .327 141 517 69 136 15 6 2 40 45 101 33 10 83 Aaron Cunningham R RF 26 .243 .306 .391 148 494 68 120 32 4 11 66 41 118 6 5 91 Jason Donald R SS 27 .248 .314 .350 109 400 48 99 20 3 5 28 31 101 11 3 84 Chun-Hsiu Chen R C 23 .240 .300 .382 130 484 48 116 27 3 12 62 41 136 3 2 87 Felix Pie L LF 27 .248 .295 .378 106 286 37 71 14 4 5 24 19 60 6 3 85 Fred Lewis L LF 31 .237 .324 .357 110 325 46 77 18 3 5 27 38 85 9 6 89 Thomas Neal R LF 24 .250 .315 .358 123 472 63 118 26 2 7 51 35 116 8 6 86 Cord Phelps B 2B 25 .249 .317 .360 135 503 55 125 25 5 7 49 48 111 6 8 87 Jared Goedert R 3B 27 .231 .293 .367 113 425 45 98 23 1 11 47 35 101 1 0 81 Nick Weglarz L LF 24 .208 .322 .350 85 303 43 63 17 1 8 34 47 95 1 2 86 Beau Mills L 1B 25 .236 .282 .374 132 508 49 120 27 2 13 68 31 116 1 1 80 Jack Hannahan L 3B 32 .223 .303 .347 110 337 40 75 17 2 7 37 38 93 2 1 80 Andy LaRoche R 2B 28 .233 .303 .343 116 361 43 84 18 2 6 38 31 64 3 2 79 Lou Marson R C 26 .231 .313 .319 109 351 41 81 17 1 4 30 41 88 7 2 76 Ryan Spilborghs R RF 32 .227 .302 .344 117 291 32 66 14 1 6 31 29 75 4 4 78 Michel Hernandez R C 33 .240 .306 .316 60 196 20 47 9 0 2 23 17 28 1 1 73 Juan Diaz B SS 23 .235 .275 .329 156 604 58 142 23 5 8 60 32 140 8 3 67 Luke Carlin B C 31 .210 .312 .298 75 238 30 50 9 0 4 25 34 68 2 1 70 Adam Everett R SS 35 .231 .279 .308 51 130 16 30 7 0 1 8 8 25 2 1 62 Matt Pagnozzi R C 29 .215 .273 .293 80 246 21 53 10 0 3 24 18 72 0 1 57 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Carlos Santana FR FR/98 Shin-Soo Choo AV/107 AV/107 Travis Hafner Asdrubal Cabrera AV/93 FR/82 Jason Kipnis AV/160 Grady Sizemore AV/66 Matt LaPorta FR/113 FR/96 FR/115 Michael Brantley VG/79 AV/68 Jose Lopez AV/106 AV/120 VG/88 Lonnie Chisenhall VG/120 Shelley Duncan FR/100 FR/95 FR/104 Kosuke Fukudome PO/92 FR/59 Ezequiel Carrera VG/109 VG/107 VG/97 Aaron Cunningham AV/104 PO/109 FR/106 Jason Donald AV/94 AV/105 FR/104 Chun-Hsiu Chen AV Felix Pie AV/51 AV/92 AV/51 Fred Lewis AV/102 FR/101 FR/119 Thomas Neal VG/129 FR/111 AV/106 Cord Phelps AV/116 AV/123 FR/106 Jared Goedert AV/102 PO/116 FR/129 FR/124 FR/124 Nick Weglarz AV/165 FR/123 Beau Mills AV/114 Jack Hannahan AV/94 AV/100 EX/79 PO/103 Andy LaRoche VG/109 FR/112 AV/87 FR/102 Lou Marson VG Ryan Spilborghs FR/101 FR/118 FR/125 Michel Hernandez AV Juan Diaz AV/117 Luke Carlin AV AV/118 Adam Everett VG/118 AV/99 VG/85 Matt Pagnozzi AV FR/118 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Ubaldo Jimenez R 28 3.52 15 9 31 31 196.7 175 77 14 80 188 118 Justin Masterson R 27 3.71 12 9 33 31 204.0 205 84 13 65 153 112 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Josh Tomlin R 27 4.56 9 10 26 25 150.0 157 76 21 36 85 91 Derek Lowe R 39 4.68 11 12 28 28 157.7 181 82 16 48 99 89 Fauxsto Carmona R 28 4.70 10 12 30 30 178.0 191 93 20 63 106 89 Kevin Slowey R 28 4.88 6 8 24 20 114.3 133 62 17 19 78 85 Jeanmar Gomez R 24 4.90 11 13 30 30 172.7 198 94 18 66 97 85 Carlos Carrasco R 25 4.95 8 10 25 25 143.7 156 79 20 52 101 84 Zach McAllister R 24 5.16 7 10 27 27 151.7 185 87 17 44 89 81 Matt Packer L 24 5.35 8 11 28 23 139.7 169 83 19 39 78 78 David Huff L 27 5.36 8 12 27 26 144.3 172 86 19 52 78 78 Scott Barnes L 24 5.60 5 9 22 21 107.7 117 67 17 56 83 74 Corey Kluber R 26 5.86 6 11 28 26 136.7 167 89 17 70 94 71 Chris Seddon L 28 6.08 5 10 26 20 120.0 151 81 17 56 64 69 Kelvin De La Cruz L 23 6.30 4 8 24 19 90.0 100 63 13 73 64 66 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Vinnie Pestano R 27 3.38 3 2 58 0 53.3 46 20 5 22 59 124 Chris Perez R 26 3.79 4 3 66 0 61.7 53 26 6 28 56 110 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Joe Smith R 28 3.95 3 2 66 0 57.0 53 25 4 26 43 106 Dan Wheeler R 34 4.05 3 2 54 0 46.7 45 21 7 12 40 103 Tony Sipp L 28 4.14 3 3 66 0 58.7 51 27 8 29 62 101 Nick Hagadone L 26 4.24 6 5 56 0 76.3 73 36 8 33 63 98 Rafael Perez L 30 4.27 3 3 69 0 59.0 63 28 5 22 33 98 Chen Lee R 25 4.39 4 4 45 0 69.7 68 34 7 31 63 95 Chris Ray R 30 4.63 2 3 46 0 44.7 46 23 5 20 32 90 Hector Ambriz R 28 4.70 1 1 35 0 46.0 50 24 6 16 35 89 Frank Herrmann R 28 4.75 2 2 51 0 66.3 73 35 8 21 39 88 Rob Tejeda R 30 4.75 3 3 45 0 53.0 55 28 8 22 43 88 Chad Durbin R 34 4.81 2 2 54 0 63.7 67 34 8 29 52 87 Jeremy Accardo R 30 4.81 3 3 52 0 58.0 64 31 5 27 34 87 Steven Wright R 27 7.17 2 7 34 11 90.3 124 72 16 54 46 58 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Asdrubal Cabrera .268 .326 .405 2235 8650 1147 2316 460 39 217 1049 672 1454 180 101 Jose Lopez .263 .293 .402 1885 7054 782 1855 399 11 187 889 264 761 50 87 Carlos Santana .238 .349 .419 1896 6713 983 1601 395 24 256 963 1156 1440 65 112 Grady Sizemore .255 .337 .444 1497 5942 905 1517 358 60 215 776 643 1338 179 110 Shin-Soo Choo .271 .360 .431 1513 5589 750 1513 296 39 174 764 683 1242 158 117 Michael Brantley .265 .324 .366 1290 5191 745 1378 237 37 70 467 452 709 159 91 Travis Hafner .273 .368 .480 1413 4916 710 1341 304 10 231 835 661 1117 11 128 Matt LaPorta .245 .311 .401 1152 4004 454 981 222 10 128 521 349 815 11 96 Kosuke Fukudome .252 .348 .384 879 2938 380 740 165 20 61 278 430 603 40 95 Fred Lewis .255 .334 .386 833 2477 387 631 144 30 40 212 269 611 76 94 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Ubaldo Jimenez 194 148 0 3.81 451 449 2791 2521 1180 209 1204 2591 113 Derek Lowe 190 175 85 4.05 700 421 2878 2988 1296 240 848 1877 108 Justin Masterson 148 127 0 3.89 480 403 2640 2673 1140 192 923 1985 107 Fauxsto Carmona 119 146 0 4.75 380 348 2112 2242 1115 228 796 1278 89 Kevin Slowey 77 76 0 4.82 246 214 1240 1421 664 196 205 889 86 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Carlos Santana C 67% 24% 7% 2% 0% Darrell Porter Josh Willingham Curt Blefary Shin-Soo Choo RF 31% 32% 17% 12% 7% Willie Crawford J.D. Drew Gary Matthews Travis Hafner DH 9% 24% 21% 28% 19% Fred McGriff Hal McRae Richie Zisk Asdrubal Cabrera SS 49% 26% 17% 6% 2% Gene Alley Carney Lansford Leo Cardenas Jason Kipnis 2B 37% 21% 17% 14% 9% Rickie Weeks Mark Teahen Bobby Rose Grady Sizemore CF 22% 23% 27% 18% 10% Ricky Ledee Randy Bush Jose Cruz Matt LaPorta 1B 2% 13% 19% 36% 29% Joe Vitiello Larry See Matt LeCroy Michael Brantley LF 4% 11% 16% 25% 45% Mel Almada Jeremy Reed Covelli Crisp Jose Lopez 3B 3% 15% 24% 30% 29% Ken Reitz Joe Crede Terry Tiffee Lonnie Chisenhall 3B 4% 13% 21% 28% 33% Scott Cooper Howard Battle David Bell Shelley Duncan LF 2% 8% 13% 25% 52% Adam Hyzdu Ryan Radmanovich Carmelo Martinez Kosuke Fukudome RF 1% 4% 8% 18% 69% Bobby Higginson Tim Tolman Al Zarilla Ezequiel Carrera CF 4% 7% 21% 34% 34% Kenny Lofton Alex Cole Willy Taveras Aaron Cunningham RF 1% 4% 7% 18% 70% Kevin Young David McCarty Keith Williams Jason Donald SS 6% 15% 29% 28% 22% Fred Manrique Hubie Brooks Aaron Ledesma Chun-Hsiu Chen C 5% 18% 24% 31% 22% John Roskos Matt Nokes Al Pardo Felix Pie LF 1% 2% 4% 11% 82% Jim Wawruck Trent Oeltjen Steve Carter Fred Lewis LF 0% 2% 5% 15% 78% Pat Sheridan Tommy McCraw Keith Hughes Thomas Neal LF 0% 1% 4% 13% 81% Rod Allen Lastings Milledge Dale Holman Cord Phelps 2B 2% 3% 8% 23% 64% Ron Oester Chris Pittaro Bobby Rose Jared Goedert 3B 1% 3% 8% 20% 69% Brad Seitzer Lou Lucca Travis Metcalf Nick Weglarz LF 3% 3% 4% 11% 79% Brad Hawpe Richie Grayum John Jensen Beau Mills 1B 0% 0% 2% 9% 89% Billy Owens Ryan Jones Mike Rendina Jack Hannahan 3B 1% 2% 6% 16% 76% Shanie Dugas Ron Warner Ray Giannelli Andy LaRoche 2B 3% 3% 6% 18% 69% Stu Cole Keith Johns John Tamargo Lou Marson C 2% 8% 15% 34% 41% Dave Huppert Bob Henley Danny Ardoin Ryan Spilborghs RF 0% 1% 1% 4% 94% Derek Nicholson Chris Sheff Dann Howitt Michel Hernandez C 1% 3% 8% 24% 64% Chris Ashby Chad Moeller Kirt Manwaring Juan Diaz SS 2% 2% 6% 15% 76% Yamaico Navarro Juan Delgado Mike Huyler Luke Carlin C 1% 3% 6% 19% 70% Danny Ardoin Steve Yeager Jayhawk Owens Adam Everett SS 1% 1% 3% 10% 85% Jeff Branson Kevin Baez Rafael Bournigal Matt Pagnozzi C 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% Joe Hietpas Dane Sardinha Ray Stephens Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Vinnie Pestano RP 47% 45% 9% Jeff Little Bryan Harvey Scott Williamson Ubaldo Jimenez SP 66% 29% 5% Juan Guzman Chan Ho Park Jim Maloney Justin Masterson SP 56% 39% 5% John Montefusco Camilo Pascual Joey Hamilton Chris Perez RP 29% 55% 16% Steve Sharts Brian Wilson Stan Belinda Joe Smith RP 28% 46% 26% Mark Acre David Lee Woody Williams Dan Wheeler RP 20% 41% 39% Jeff Reardon Jeff Montgomery Todd Worrell Tony Sipp RP 17% 49% 34% Will Ohman Ron Villone Tom Hall Nick Hagadone RP 12% 53% 35% Omar Daal Jaime Cerda Craig Breslow Rafael Perez RP 13% 43% 44% Dave Von Ohlen Juan Agosto Dave Tomlin Chen Lee RP 9% 52% 39% Jeff Zaske Bo Donaldson Ben Hayes Josh Tomlin SP 13% 51% 36% Louis McCall Bill Wegman Mike Esposito Chris Ray RP 8% 32% 59% Jason Childers Gregg Olson Ernie Camacho Derek Lowe SP 10% 42% 48% Tom Candiotti Woody Williams Rick Sutcliffe Hector Ambriz RP 7% 30% 63% Matt Whiteside Turk Wendell Bob Wells Fauxsto Carmona SP 5% 46% 49% Josh Fogg Denny Harriger Ryan Drese Frank Herrmann RP 4% 34% 62% Tim McNab Rafael Montalvo Jay Tessmer Rob Tejeda RP 5% 29% 66% Doug Henry Joel Peralta Marino Salas Chad Durbin RP 3% 31% 66% Jim Dougherty Juan Eichelberger Doug Henry Jeremy Accardo RP 4% 28% 68% Mike Bumstead Jake Robbins Weston Weber Kevin Slowey SP 6% 40% 54% Greg Wooten Matt Ginter Josh Towers Jeanmar Gomez SP 3% 43% 54% Steve Fireovid Steve Cummings Steve Crawford Carlos Carrasco SP 3% 35% 62% Mark Clark Willie Adams Cliff Politte Zach McAllister SP 1% 29% 70% Clay Parker Elizardo Ramirez Bill King Matt Packer SP 0% 17% 82% Bobby Livingston John Rheinecker Heath Phillips David Huff SP 0% 18% 81% Lance Davis Mike Linskey Heath Phillips Scott Barnes SP 1% 13% 86% Adam Bostick Damian Moss James Happ Corey Kluber SP 0% 5% 95% Carlos Paredes Chris Gissell Jim Johnson Chris Seddon SP 0% 2% 98% Mike Prochaska Nate Teut Tim McCoy Kelvin De La Cruz SP 0% 2% 98% Les Walrond Mike Gonzalez Nate Cromwell Danny Salazar SP 2% 5% 93% Billy Traber Craig Swan Mike Gordon Steven Wright RP 0% 0% 100% Dan Kolb Mike Bumstead Eddie Candelario Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Carlos Santana 2% 31% 13% 3% 1% 11% 17% 1% Shin-Soo Choo 11% 31% 8% 0% 2% 2% 13% 5% Travis Hafner 8% 19% 6% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% Asdrubal Cabrera 15% 6% 5% 7% 2% 5% 4% 7% Jason Kipnis 3% 2% 5% 1% 41% 3% 3% 2% Grady Sizemore 2% 4% 6% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% Matt LaPorta 2% 2% 3% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% Michael Brantley 10% 4% 1% 1% 5% 1% 1% 21% Jose Lopez 7% 0% 3% 5% 0% 2% 0% 0% Lonnie Chisenhall 3% 1% 3% 1% 5% 3% 1% 0% Shelley Duncan 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Kosuke Fukudome 1% 8% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Ezequiel Carrera 5% 4% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 59% Aaron Cunningham 1% 0% 0% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% Jason Donald 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Chun-Hsiu Chen 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% Felix Pie 3% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% Fred Lewis 1% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Thomas Neal 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Cord Phelps 2% 1% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% Jared Goedert 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Nick Weglarz 0% 4% 2% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% Beau Mills 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jack Hannahan 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Andy LaRoche 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Lou Marson 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ryan Spilborghs 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Michel Hernandez 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Juan Diaz 0% 0% 1% 1% 10% 1% 0% 0% Luke Carlin 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Adam Everett 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Matt Pagnozzi 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Vinnie Pestano 47% 84% 91% 2% 77% Ubaldo Jimenez 28% 86% 71% 0% 95% Justin Masterson 21% 82% 9% 4% 97% Chris Perez 29% 74% 52% 0% 73% Joe Smith 21% 67% 10% 0% 84% Dan Wheeler 14% 52% 41% 33% 33% Tony Sipp 12% 58% 87% 0% 44% Nick Hagadone 9% 52% 25% 0% 76% Rafael Perez 13% 49% 1% 6% 85% Chen Lee 6% 47% 52% 0% 68% Josh Tomlin 3% 29% 0% 41% 28% Chris Ray 8% 32% 7% 1% 69% Derek Lowe 2% 24% 2% 10% 64% Hector Ambriz 5% 29% 13% 8% 42% Fauxsto Carmona 1% 17% 1% 1% 58% Frank Herrmann 2% 26% 0% 10% 51% Rob Tejeda 5% 27% 23% 2% 37% Chad Durbin 2% 22% 20% 0% 42% Jeremy Accardo 3% 21% 1% 1% 72% Kevin Slowey 1% 17% 1% 94% 24% Jeanmar Gomez 0% 12% 0% 0% 65% Carlos Carrasco 0% 13% 2% 1% 24% Zach McAllister 0% 5% 0% 9% 53% Matt Packer 0% 4% 0% 16% 30% David Huff 0% 3% 0% 1% 34% Scott Barnes 0% 3% 8% 0% 17% Corey Kluber 0% 0% 1% 0% 37% Chris Seddon 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% Kelvin De La Cruz 0% 0% 3% 0% 24% Danny Salazar 1% 4% 5% 2% 17% Steven Wright 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Nationals Blue Jays Rays Royals Reds Brewers Orioles Rockies Braves Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
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1. Boxkutter Posted: January 30, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4049382)Nice!
Thanks!
Indeed it was although I was hoping for an entertaining set of comps as well. At least Roberto Hernandez Heredia as his top comp. :-)
Maybe "Randy Bush" is Dale Murphy's porn name.
Kipnis doesn't remind me of Rickie Weeks in any way, shape, or form (and it's not just the racial distinction between them, either - although Kevin Goldstein had some interesting speculation on that topic on the BP podcast the other day). I can definitely see the comps between Santana and Josh Willingham, though.
-- MWE
A 30-YO LOOGY who gives up nearly a hit per inning and who his seen his K rate drop to 4.7 per nine innings doesn't really merit any love, ZiPS or otherwise.
-- MWE
EDITED to make sense.
For pitchers with a long track record, I would expect essentially no difference between the two. The aging curve for pitchers is very flat, especially in the middle years.
As Voros said, it won't make much of a difference at all. The main risk factor for pitchers 25-35 isn't really aging, but their arms going boom, which they're all at risk of happening.
Anyone remember former Pirates outfielder Tony Alvarez? He's a reggaeton musician these days.
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