BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2012 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, January 13, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

If you watch the Food Network, you might have come across a competitive cooking show called "Chopped" in which chefs are given baskets of mystery ingredients. Some ingredients are pretty cool, some ingredients have tremendous use in specific areas, and some ingredients are downright awful. Each one of the chefs that survive each round have to use all the ingredients together in a non-horrible way. < That's a lot how the Royals are right now. There are a lot of the ingredients of a winning team in the future. Some of them are finished, quality products, like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Some of the ingredients, like Eric Hosmer and Johnny Giavotella, are exciting to work with. But a lot of the team's prospects, at this point, fall into the category of "interesting" like most of the pitchers having at least one serious flaw or concern to worry about. All these ingredients are scattered and all over the place and the Royals at this point, are still going to likely struggle to hit 75 wins.

There's still a lot more offseason left, but as of now, the good news is that there really aren't any horrible ingredients, with the single, notable exception of Yuniesky Betancourt, a player with little redeemable purpose and will get $2 million. $2 million isn't much in the big picture, but there are a lot of better ways to spend $2 million. You could drop $2 million in hundred-dollar bills over the sky in San Pedro de Macoris (each $100 with a Royals sticker affixed to it) and get a better return on investment than Yuni.

Dayton Moore has put together a very good farm system -- hardly surprising for a guy who came up through player development -- but I've seen absolutely nothing yet that suggests that he has the ability to take all these ingredients at his disposal and bake KC a winner.

Next Up: Tampa Bay Rays

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Eric Hosmer       L    1B  22   .304 .354 .474 156 625  82 190  36   5  20  81  50  92  14   4  123
Billy Butler      R    1B  26   .295 .362 .462 156 586  74 173  41   0  19  83  62  89   1   1  123
Alex Gordon       L    LF  28   .278 .358 .464 139 547  87 152  36   3  20  73  63 127  14   7  122
Mike Moustakas    L    3B  23   .274 .316 .436 152 613  72 168  38   2  19  81  36 100   3   1  102
Jeff Francoeur    R    RF  28   .273 .314 .437 156 583  70 159  37   4  17  77  32 111  13   6  102
Johnny Giavotella R    2B  24   .271 .320 .384 156 627  83 170  35   6   8  64  44  90  13   7   91
Clint Robinson    L    1B  27   .258 .309 .400 142 543  65 140  31   2  14  64  37 114   2   2   91
Lorenzo Cain      R    CF  26   .259 .314 .370 135 521  65 135  25   6   7  46  35 122  17   5   86
Salvador Perez    R    C   22   .274 .303 .393 146 547  55 150  29   3  10  66  21  69   0   1   88
Alcides Escobar   R    SS  25   .270 .309 .366 156 563  75 152  23   8   5  46  29  77  25   8   83
Brayan Pena       B    C   30   .267 .310 .380  73 221  19  59  13   0   4  26  13  26   2   1   87
Mitch Maier       L    LF  30   .246 .324 .353  92 272  35  67  12   4   3  24  30  58   4   2   85
Chris Getz        L    2B  28   .266 .323 .320 112 372  48  99  13   2   1  30  28  47  19   5   76
Wil Myers         R    RF  21   .235 .317 .361 133 498  55 117  29   2  10  57  57 138  10   5   85
Yuniesky BetancourR    SS  30   .262 .283 .385 149 543  53 142  28   3  11  63  18  55   3   4   80
David Lough       L    LF  26   .255 .297 .362 139 550  72 140  21   7   8  50  29  82  13   9   79
Max Ramirez       R    C   27   .232 .296 .363  90 306  34  71  14   1   8  42  26  88   0   0   79
Jarrod Dyson      L    CF  27   .237 .290 .302 105 388  52  92  13   3   2  28  28  81  35   6   62
Manny Pina        R    C   25   .227 .316 .326  86 282  35  64  16   0   4  26  29  58   0   0   76
Cheslor Cuthbert  R    3B  19   .232 .285 .354 106 410  36  95  17   0  11  56  31 105   2   0   73
Tony Abreu        B    2B  27   .247 .280 .352 121 446  52 110  21   4   6  46  19  99   7   5   71
Christian Colon   R    SS  23   .251 .297 .327 124 499  63 125  16   2   6  49  28  62  10   7   70
Irving Falu       B    RF  29   .254 .296 .315 122 473  56 120  13   5   2  38  29  49  12   7   67
Cody Clark        R    C   30   .236 .282 .338  63 195  20  46  11   0   3  16  11  36   1   1   68
Eric Duncan       L    LF  27   .222 .264 .342 119 424  47  94  20   2   9  41  24 119   3   2   64
Derrick Robinson  B    CF  24   .233 .279 .291 139 570  68 133  17   5   2  36  36 127  47  19   56
Mario Lisson      R    3B  28   .207 .255 .324 122 435  49  90  22   1   9  41  24 138  15   4   57
Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Eric Hosmer                  FR/113
Billy Butler                  FR/96
Alex Gordon                  AV/117          AV/132           AV/81          FR/126
Mike Moustakas                               AV/109
Jeff Francoeur                                                FR/70           FR/70
Johnny Giavotella                    AV/127                  AV/117
Clint Robinson               AV/161                          FR/120
Lorenzo Cain                                                 VG/139  AV/135  VG/139
Salvador Perez           VG
Alcides Escobar                      VG/121           VG/89                  VG/118
Brayan Pena              VG                                  FR/120
Mitch Maier                                                   AV/88   AV/43  AV/113
Chris Getz                            AV/77  AV/119  FR/116
Wil Myers                FR                                  AV/133  FR/126  AV/133
Yuniesky Betancourt                                   PO/96
David Lough                                                  VG/123   AV/97   AV/95
Max Ramirez              FR  FR/118
Jarrod Dyson                                                 VG/112  VG/141  VG/112
Manny Pina               VG
Cheslor Cuthbert                             FR/110
Tony Abreu                           AV/105   VG/94  FR/121
Christian Colon                      VG/105          VG/127
Irving Falu                           FR/98  AV/101  FR/140          AV/114   AV/90
Cody Clark               FR
Eric Duncan                  AV/136  PO/113  PO/116           FR/92          PO/114
Derrick Robinson                                             VG/104  VG/153
Mario Lisson                                 AV/112  FR/117
                  
Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Jonathan Sanchez  L     29    4.36     8    8   26   25  136.3  125   66   15   79  126   95
Bruce Chen        L     35    4.53     8    9   26   22  131.0  138   66   16   47   86   91
Luke Hochevar     R     28    4.66     9   10   26   26  158.3  167   82   19   51  106   89
Felipe Paulino    R     28    4.69     6    7   30   19  121.0  129   63   12   51  102   88
Jeff Francis      L     31    4.72     7    8   24   24  139.3  161   73   15   33   72   88
John Lamb         L     21    4.85     4    5   17   17   78.0   85   42    7   37   49   86
Mike Montgomery   L     22    4.92     6    8   24   23  119.0  131   65   12   53   78   84
Danny Duffy       L     23    4.92     6    7   22   22  113.3  121   62   16   46   92   84
Nathan Adcock     R     24    4.97     4    5   26   12   88.7  101   49    9   37   48   83
Luis Mendoza      R     28    4.99     7    9   28   19  122.7  144   68   11   49   51   83
Vin Mazzaro       R     25    5.13     6    8   27   24  142.0  165   81   16   60   87   81
Jake Odorizzi     R     22    5.40     6    9   25   24  123.3  140   74   18   55   86   77
Everett Teaford   L     28    5.42     5    8   33   13   89.7  100   54   15   38   57   76
Sean O'Sullivan   R     24    5.64     6   11   27   24  132.3  162   83   18   45   63   73
Noel Arguelles    L     22    5.72     3    6   22   22   94.3  119   60   12   33   37   72
Ryan Verdugo      L     25    5.75     5    9   22   22  114.3  125   73   15   80   90   72
Will Smith        L     22    5.76     7   12   26   26  143.7  182   92   19   51   71   72
Jeff Suppan       R     37    5.78     5    9   24   20  118.3  153   76   17   43   50   72
Kevin Pucetas     R     27    5.86     4    8   29   19  116.7  148   76   16   47   57   71
Chris Dwyer       L     24    5.89     6   11   26   26  123.7  137   81   16   85   81   70
Timothy Melville  R     22    6.81     5   13   26   24  111.0  151   84   15   64   55   61

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Joakim Soria      R     28    3.32     4    2   58    0   59.7   53   22    6   17   64  125
Jonathan Broxton  R     28    3.50     4    3   44    0   43.7   38   17    4   20   50  118
Louis Coleman     R     26    3.67     4    3   42    0   61.3   54   25    7   25   61  113
Greg Holland      R     26    3.73     4    3   50    0   70.0   62   29    6   33   70  111
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Kelvin Herrera    R     22    3.90     5    4   49    0   67.0   62   29    9   19   54  106
Tim Collins       L     22    4.05     4    3   65    0   66.7   57   30    6   42   67  102
Blake Wood        R     26    4.24     4    4   59    0   70.0   69   33    6   30   54   98
Jose Mijares      L     27    4.38     1    1   60    0   49.3   50   24    5   23   37   95
Aaron Crow        R     25    4.54     4    4   64    0   67.3   67   34    8   34   61   91
Jeremy Jeffress   R     24    4.97     2    3   47    0   41.7   43   23    4   26   30   83
Zach Miner        R     30    5.33     4    6   33    9   72.7   84   43    9   34   42   78
Tommy Hottovy     L     30    6.04     1    2   35    0   50.7   60   34    8   27   30   69

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Eric Hosmer         .295  .353  .470  2375  9418  1243  2781   529    80   318  1238   863  1322   256   122
Billy Butler        .286  .352  .438  2255  8455   998  2416   567     3   239  1138   867  1208    14   114
Alex Gordon         .266  .342  .434  1775  6891   997  1832   433    35   219   840   737  1472   145   110
Jeff Francoeur      .269  .311  .426  2023  7625   921  2049   450    42   223  1037   414  1382   116    96
Yuniesky Betancour  .263  .285  .381  1693  6116   627  1608   316    39   109   669   204   584    44    79
Chris Getz          .259  .317  .312   698  2281   287   591    78    14     5   177   178   280   119    72

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Jeff Francis           98  111    0    4.82  311  310     1809 2069  969  215  506 1069     92
Bruce Chen             95  100    1    4.63  430  268     1739 1792  894  279  661 1247     92
Jonathan Sanchez       93  106    0    4.43  364  302     1687 1520  830  190  965 1638     94

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Eric Hosmer       1B    26%  38%  19%  13%   4%         Joe Vosmik       Dan Driessen         Kent Hrbek
Billy Butler      1B    22%  37%  21%  16%   4%       Paul Konerko       Mike Sweeney         Sean Casey
Alex Gordon       LF    34%  32%  15%  11%   8%    Willie Crawford        Rusty Greer        Jim Edmonds
Mike Moustakas    3B    10%  24%  26%  23%  17%     Aramis Ramirez          Joe Crede        Mike Lowell
Jeff Francoeur    RF     3%  15%  20%  27%  35%        Wil Cordero       Glenn Wilson       Jermaine Dye
Johnny Giavotella 2B     8%  10%  17%  28%  38%         Jose Lopez    Joseph Thurston        Robin Yount
Clint Robinson    1B     0%   2%   6%  26%  65%       Shawn W00t3n        Danny Lewis          Adam Lind
Lorenzo Cain      CF     4%   9%  24%  34%  30%        Alexis Rios    Reggie Williams        Xavier Paul
Salvador Perez    C      5%  18%  23%  32%  22%      Bengie Molina       Matt Walbeck         Einar Diaz
Alcides Escobar   SS     7%  18%  32%  26%  17%      Royce Clayton    Cristian Guzman      Cesar Izturis
Brayan Pena       C      5%  16%  23%  33%  23%         Jason Hill      John Flaherty       Sandy Alomar
Mitch Maier       LF     0%   2%   4%  12%  82%      Cory Sullivan       Pat Sheridan      Terry Bogener
Chris Getz        2B     3%   6%  12%  25%  54%      Bernie Castro       Mike Woodard     Mrs. Lee Judge
Wil Myers         RF     1%   3%   5%  12%  78%        Brad Nelson       Mike Edwards       Jayson Werth
Yuniesky BetancourSS     2%   8%  19%  31%  41%    Virgil Stallcup  Aurelio Rodriguez         Deivi Cruz
David Lough       LF     0%   0%   1%   6%  92%    Willie Crawford        Rusty Greer        Jim Edmonds
Max Ramirez       C      2%   7%  14%  33%  45%     Gilberto Reyes       Alvin Colina        Dusty Brown
Jarrod Dyson      CF     1%   2%   9%  24%  64%       Nyjer Morgan        Adam Godwin     Jose Constanza
Manny Pina        C      2%   6%  11%  29%  53%       Mike Nickeas          Rob Bowen       Matt Garrick
Cheslor Cuthbert  3B     1%   3%   6%  11%  79%         Vince Rooi       Ramon Castro        John Hattig
Tony Abreu        2B     0%   1%   1%   6%  92%      Fred Manrique        Victor Mata      Tommy Shields
Christian Colon   SS     2%   3%   7%  16%  71%        Al Pedrique      Julio Cordido      John McDonald
Irving Falu       RF     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%       Tom Runnells      Terry Blocker        Jose Macias
Cody Clark        C      1%   3%   6%  17%  73%     Charlie Greene       Pedro Grifol       Henry Blanco
Eric Duncan       LF     0%   0%   0%   0%  99%       Phil Geisler       John Giudice       Jason Aspito
Derrick Robinson  CF     0%   0%   1%   4%  95%          Eric Reed      Jesus Tavarez         Randy Winn
Mario Lisson      3B     0%   0%   1%   3%  96%      Kody Kirkland       David Maroul          Ray Thoma

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Joakim Soria      RP     61%   33%    6%     Trevor Hoffman      Mike Schooler           Robb Nen
Jonathan Broxton  RP     43%   42%   16%         Ryne Duren        Jeff Little        Rich Garces
Louis Coleman     RP     32%   50%   18%      Jose Valverde       Stan Belinda   Fernando Cabrera
Greg Holland      RP     30%   57%   13%       Mark Littell       Bryce Florie         Brad Lidge
Kelvin Herrera    RP     21%   54%   24%        Edwin Nunez      Chris Britton   Oscar Villarreal
Tim Collins       RP     19%   52%   29%     Mitch Williams        John Rocker      Darren Oliver
Blake Wood        RP     11%   50%   39%        Joe Bateman     Jailen Peguero      J.J. Trujillo
Jonathan Sanchez  SP     21%   53%   26%      Randy Johnson         Tim Lollar          Al Leiter
Jose Mijares      RP     13%   45%   42%     Ricardo Jordan      Chris Marchok      Felix Heredia
Bruce Chen        SP     10%   50%   40%    Paul Splittorff       Jim Deshaies      Mike Flanagan
Aaron Crow        RP      6%   40%   54%          Ben Hayes       Bo Donaldson      Darrin Chapin
Luke Hochevar     SP      6%   47%   47%     Richard Dotson          Luis Leal      Mike Gardiner
Felipe Paulino    SP      7%   49%   44%       Britt Reames       Jaret Wright         Steve Mura
Jeff Francis      SP     11%   47%   42%   Mark Hendrickson      Greg Swindell    Andrew Lorraine
John Lamb         SP      8%   44%   48%     Nate Robertson           Eric Cyr      Chris Hancock
Mike Montgomery   SP      3%   38%   60%         Matt Young   Brandon Claussen       John Daniels
Danny Duffy       SP      5%   38%   57%       Ray Fontenot      Blaise Ilsley         Matt Beech
Jeremy Jeffress   RP      6%   27%   67%          Bob Welch         Mario Soto         Jeff Smith
Nathan Adcock     SP      1%   21%   78%       Justin James       Andy Nezelek      Doug Potestio
Luis Mendoza      SP      8%   35%   57%         Bill Swift        Tommie Sisk          Howie Fox
Vin Mazzaro       SP      1%   29%   69%       Mitch Talbot         Joe Bitker       Don Robinson
Zach Miner        RP      0%   13%   87%       Leo Estrella     Mike Heathcott         Scott Brow
Jake Odorizzi     SP      1%   16%   83%       Adam Johnson      Ramon Ramirez         Jason Bell
Everett Teaford   SP      0%    7%   93%      Craig Minetto        Mike Porzio       Tommy Phelps
Sean O'Sullivan   SP      0%    9%   91%        Andy Ghelfi    Cameron Reimers      Brandon Leese
Noel Arguelles    SP      0%    8%   91%       Jon Connolly      Jason Gooding     Travis Baptist
Ryan Verdugo      SP      0%    7%   93%       Adam Bostick        Les Walrond       Steve Searcy
Will Smith        SP      0%    5%   95%   Bobby Livingston     Heath Phillips    Andy Van Hekken
Jeff Suppan       SP      1%    9%   90%    Dennis Springer         Aaron Sele       Kevin Jarvis
Kevin Pucetas     SP      0%    5%   94%        Pat Ahearne        Jim Magrane        Steve Finch
Chris Dwyer       SP      0%    4%   96%     Brian O'Connor           Tim Cole    Daniel Haigwood
Tommy Hottovy     RP      0%    4%   96%     Rusty Gerhardt        Mark Watson      Scott Watkins
Timothy Melville  SP      0%    0%  100%       Chris Kinsey      Matt Achilles      Mark Woodyard

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Eric Hosmer             57%      21%      25%      22%      11%      14%      17%       6%
Billy Butler            41%      30%      17%      46%       0%       8%      16%       0%
Alex Gordon             19%      25%      21%      16%       2%       9%      16%       6%
Mike Moustakas          13%       1%       8%      24%       1%       8%       3%       0%
Jeff Francoeur          11%       1%       3%      16%       2%       1%       1%       3%
Johnny Giavotella        9%       1%       1%      16%      18%       0%       0%       4%
Clint Robinson           2%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Lorenzo Cain             4%       1%       0%       0%      11%       0%       0%       3%
Salvador Perez          13%       0%       2%       3%       3%       1%       1%       0%
Alcides Escobar         10%       0%       0%       0%      35%       0%       0%      29%
Brayan Pena             15%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mitch Maier              4%       5%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Getz              10%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      10%
Wil Myers                0%       2%       0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Yuniesky Betancour       5%       0%       0%       1%       3%       0%       0%       0%
David Lough              3%       0%       0%       0%      22%       0%       0%       3%
Max Ramirez              1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jarrod Dyson             1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      70%
Manny Pina               1%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cheslor Cuthbert         1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Tony Abreu               1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Christian Colon          2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Irving Falu              2%       0%       0%       0%       7%       0%       0%       0%
Cody Clark               3%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Eric Duncan              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Derrick Robinson         0%       0%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%      94%
Mario Lisson             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Joakim Soria              52%        91%        92%        19%        79%
Jonathan Broxton          33%        78%        94%         1%        84%
Louis Coleman             25%        77%        75%         1%        63%
Greg Holland              24%        78%        81%         0%        86%
Kelvin Herrera            16%        70%        20%        20%        35%
Tim Collins               14%        58%        80%         0%        70%
Blake Wood                 8%        54%        11%         0%        83%
Jonathan Sanchez           4%        43%        62%         0%        56%
Jose Mijares               9%        41%         8%         0%        77%
Bruce Chen                 1%        26%         4%         2%        45%
Aaron Crow                 6%        39%        50%         0%        42%
Luke Hochevar              0%        21%         1%         2%        47%
Felipe Paulino             1%        24%        29%         0%        64%
Jeff Francis               2%        25%         1%        46%        64%
John Lamb                  1%        23%         0%         0%        81%
Mike Montgomery            0%        13%         0%         0%        69%
Danny Duffy                1%        15%        19%         0%        33%
Jeremy Jeffress            3%        25%         7%         0%        79%
Nathan Adcock              1%        14%         0%         1%        69%
Luis Mendoza               2%        19%         0%         1%        83%
Vin Mazzaro                0%         8%         0%         0%        62%
Zach Miner                 0%         8%         2%         0%        47%
Jake Odorizzi              0%         4%         1%         0%        27%
Everett Teaford            0%         4%         0%         0%        14%
Sean O'Sullivan            0%         1%         0%         3%        31%
Noel Arguelles             0%         1%         0%         3%        43%
Ryan Verdugo               0%         1%        12%         0%        36%
Will Smith                 0%         0%         0%         1%        29%
Jeff Suppan                0%         3%         0%         4%        32%
Kevin Pucetas              0%         1%         0%         0%        31%
Chris Dwyer                0%         0%         0%         0%        39%
Tommy Hottovy              0%         3%         1%         0%        28%
Timothy Melville           0%         0%         0%         0%        26%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2012 Projections Archive
Reds
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 13, 2012 at 03:11 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4036458)

Jeff Francoeur shows has having a 2000 game career with a 96 OPS+. Have there been any other career corner OF's who reached 2000 games with an OPS+ less than 100?

2. You can keep your massive haul Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4036462)

w00t d0g!

3. JPWF1313 Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4036471)

Have there been any other career corner OF's who reached 2000 games with an OPS+ less than 100?

no.
A 1b, Charlie Grimm did it (94) back in 1918/1936, his batting averages (career .290) may have fooled a few people, plus pre 1920s 1B had a different job description, he was a bit of a throwback/holdover.

Other than that you got BJ Surhoff, although he almost caught as many games as he played in left... and I'm opretty sure that once out form behind the plate... yes, his tOPS+ for laying left was 111, RF 116, his career OPS+ was 98, so he was around 110 when he was a corner OF.

Buckner 99 (more games at 1b than corner OF)
Garrett Anderson 102

4. cheever Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4036485)

But what are their projections on the Ron Polk chart?

5. Boxkutter Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:17 PM (#4036546)

Isn't Aaron Crow being moved into the rotation this year?

Also I am surprised by how low the numbers on Tony Abreu are. He hit 292/335/429 in AAA last year while increasing his BB% and decreasing his K%, and his OPS+ went down 15 points when compared to last year's projections.

6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4036556)

He is. I imagine he'll start in Omaha.

I'm slightly optimistic with these projections. No real terrible hitters, even the rookies/second year guys aren't overwhelmed. No huge regression from Franceour or Gordon.

The pitching is bad, but it doesn't seem groin-grabbingly bad in the rotation. Just five below average guys who should all be back of the rotation guys, but that's an upgrade from 6-7 years ago when the rotation was filled with guys who should have been in the PCL. And the bullpen looks good. I don't think 75 wins is out of the question at all, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the break through that on up to 80 wins or so.

7. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4036575)

This team looks like it should be in on Edwin Jackson. He could still be effective when they become good.

8. RJ in TO Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4036578)

The pitching is bad, but it doesn't seem groin-grabbingly bad in the rotation. Just five below average guys who should all be back of the rotation guys, but that's an upgrade from 6-7 years ago when the rotation was filled with guys who should have been in the PCL.

If they're all healthy, and match predictions, they'll be (as you note) bad, but not soul-crushingly so. The problem is that there's almost no chance they'll all be healthy, and so you'll have to dig down a lot deeper than the top 5. Going by ZIPS inning predictions, you have to get all the way down the list to Danny Duffy before you get to the roughly 1000 innings that they'll need from their starting rotation this year.

9. DevinM Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4036580)

nasty Crow zip considering how effective he was last year, It baffles the mind You could easily make the case that Holland and Crow should be the best 2 relievers on the Royals staff this year coming yeah while Holland is rated ok crow is not even barely serviceable.

10. Vance W Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4036583)

The Royals are getting kind of interesting, at least at the plate. It's about time for them to go into acquision mode. Their window is...well, pretty soon.

11. UCCF Posted: January 13, 2012 at 06:09 PM (#4036600)

There's not a position player on that list over 30. I bet this is the only team where that will be true.

I'm surprised Sanchez doesn't project to league average, though I guess I'm still remembering him as the guy who led the league in H/9 in 2010.

12. devil_fingers Posted: January 13, 2012 at 06:59 PM (#4036623)

Super-pumped to see the Opening Day start from staff ace LEAGUE AVERAGE.

13. /muteself 57i66135 Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:06 PM (#4036628)

Tim Collins RP 19% 52% 29% Mitch Williams John Rocker Darren Oliver

14. JPWF1313 Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:22 PM (#4036637)

Also I am surprised by how low the numbers on Tony Abreu are. He hit 292/335/429 in AAA last year while increasing his BB% and decreasing his K%, and his OPS+ went down 15 points when compared to last year's projections.

????
He hit 292/335/429 in the PCL
The league hit .286/.359/.448
relative to league that's easily the worst he's hit in the minors, the mle on that is likely .240/.280/.325
and given what he hit in Arizona in 2010 its been almost 2 years since he's hit a lick anywhere

15. Travolta19 Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:31 PM (#4036645)

As a Royal fan, there's a good bit to be excited about here, as well as a measure of disappointment. It's been a long time since we've had 3 such solid hitters at the top. There's a good amount of mediocre hitting as well, but they are mostly young enough to improve as well.

Lough is a bit of a head-scratcher to me, as he Zipped at 86+ last year, and posted a better 2011 season than 2010, only to fall to 79+. I guess ZiPS is penalizing him for ARL?

I'll take the over on Cain, but can understand why he projects as low as he does.

I'd be curious to see Myers' comps, if he has any (having not played above AA). Statistically speaking, he lost a lot of steam with his 2011 regular season performance.

Crow and Collins both look low to me. Crow has been discussed earlier. Collins had 106+ ZiP last year, and then posted 113+ in MLB, only to fall this year. He was also just 21 in MLB last year, so I would expect some ARL help there.

While having this much youth is tough to predict, I would bet the over on 75 wins in 2012, given the relative weakness of the division.

16. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4036665)

If they're all healthy, and match predictions, they'll be (as you note) bad, but not soul-crushingly so. The problem is that there's almost no chance they'll all be healthy, and so you'll have to dig down a lot deeper than the top 5. Going by ZIPS inning predictions, you have to get all the way down the list to Danny Duffy before you get to the roughly 1000 innings that they'll need from their starting rotation this year.

I think even Dan admits you should take innings projections with a grain of salt.

Even if the top five guys get hurt (and they certainly will) the Royals have to have about the smallest gap between their #1-5 and #6-10 in the league (probably Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy/Mike Montgomery/Vin Mazzaro/Luis Mendoza). Heck even after that Sean O'Sullivan and Everett Teaford are going to be better than the shlock some teams throw out. Yea, the Royals don't really have anything higher than a #5 starter, but they won't throw anyone out there that will be totally embarrassing either. And who knows, maybe Paulino shows 2011 wasn't a fluke or Monty or Crow or Duffy shows some real upside this year.

17. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: January 13, 2012 at 08:15 PM (#4036687)

Abreu was also in a big time hitter's park - it was actually a horrible year.

18. Mike Emeigh

Posted: January 13, 2012 at 08:56 PM (#4036747)

The thing about Cain is that he's had some *huge* BABIP numbers throughout his minor league career: .402 at Huntsville in 2010, .371 at Nashville, .369 at Omaha last year - and (until last year) he also had high ground ball rates.

We only have one year of data on Werner Park in Omaha, but it's looking like it might be a good home run park; Cain hit 10 of his 16 there a year ago, and Dan's park factors give it a 1.04 HR factor. Dan, are you remembering that the park just opened last year?

-- MWE

19. Walt Davis Posted: January 14, 2012 at 05:16 AM (#4036951)

Nice projection for Hosmer -- higher than Montero's at the same age. Not so sure about projecting Hosmer already to over 10,000 PA but we've been down that road. (50% of games at 1B, OPS+<=125 ... Perez, Buckner and Vernon.)

And I'd never heard of Joe Vosmik before. Strange career. And involved in a great "name" trade:

Vosmik, Oral Hildebrand and Bill Knickerbocker for Ivy Andrews, Lyn Lary and Moose Solters.

And ZiPS doesn't think Chen is going to be the next Jamie Moyer. Darn.

20. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

Posted: January 14, 2012 at 08:28 AM (#4036958)

Super-pumped to see the Opening Day start from staff ace LEAGUE AVERAGE.

Heh, pretty good one.

My wife wants to know if Sluggerrr is above or below the LEAGUE AVERAGE line for mascots.

21. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 14, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4037002)

We only have one year of data on Werner Park in Omaha, but it's looking like it might be a good home run park; Cain hit 10 of his 16 there a year ago, and Dan's park factors give it a 1.04 HR factor. Dan, are you remembering that the park just opened last year?

I did! Because of the uncertainty of new parks (as you know, the accuracy of one-year factors is like using a trebuchet and an object of unknown weight), I use neutral for years we don't have.

22. Zach Posted: January 14, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4037066)

I'm pleasantly surprised by these projections. I tend to think of an OPS+ of 80 as the borderline between below average and unplayable, and only Getz, Dyson, and "Batter Nine You Sucky" (Yuniesky Betancourt) look to be below that. Escobar is in the danger region, but makes up for it by being a defensive whiz. I can live with a team where 90% of the playing time goes to people who deserve it.

The rotation looks like a long list of back-end starters. With such a long list of players with comparable talent, you hope somebody will step forward and separate themselves from the field. Failing that, you hope they'll pitch well enough to stick around in most games.

I'd say the upside is a young team that shows flashes of contending, with maybe a couple of fixable weak spots. Downside is a team that is subtly but noticeably below average. It'll be an interesting summer.

23. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 14, 2012 at 07:00 PM (#4037175)

Lough and Gordon have the same exact comps. Is that accurate?

24. Walt Davis Posted: January 14, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4037217)

Lough and Gordon have the same exact comps.

And Lough has a secretary named Gordon ...

25. Jim Wisinski

Posted: January 14, 2012 at 08:49 PM (#4037218)

Dayton Moore has put together a very good farm system -- hardly surprising for a guy who came up through player development -- but I've seen absolutely nothing yet that suggests that he has the ability to take all these ingredients at his disposal and bake KC a winner.

Chuck Lamar syndrome, though Moore has gotten better results faster with the farm system.

26. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 14, 2012 at 11:23 PM (#4037266)

Chuck Lamar syndrome, though Moore has gotten better results faster with the farm system.

So you could kinda say he's John Schuerholz, without all the onfield success.

27. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 15, 2012 at 09:24 AM (#4037307)

David Lough's projection is all wrong. When I move to the next player in the projection order, I'm supposed to wait for everything to re-calculate before I hit control-D to run all the ZiPS stuff (I did Lough after Gordon). I'm away from home until the 25th, so I'm on my laptop instead of the ZiPS SuperComputer (I built an extra little PC last year that's simply a customized mathnerd box (i5 760, 16 GB RAM, solid-state hard drive, no fancy graphics cards or games or anything). My laptop is getting on the old side (it's a Turion X2 u64) so it runs ZiPS a *lot* slower and I ran it prematurely.

Lough is supposed to be 264/305/385, OPS+ 87, comps Brian Kowitz, Eddie Milner, Jim Wawruck and will be on the final disk/spreadsheet correctly.

28. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: January 15, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4037357)

so I'm on my laptop instead of the ZiPS SuperComputer (I built an extra little PC last year that's simply a customized mathnerd box (i5 760, 16 GB RAM, solid-state hard drive, no fancy graphics cards or games or anything).

Yep. Did that same thing.

29. sportznut Posted: January 16, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4037747)

NVM

30. hokieneer Posted: March 23, 2012 at 01:51 PM (#4087624)

So with Soria out for the year, is the 9th inning job Broxton's first?

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2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

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