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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Monday, February 06, 20122012 ZiPS Projections - Miami MarlinsThe Marlins, thanks to Loria actually investing some money back into the team (though partially by virture of taxpayer subsidization, an issue we won't touch here), are a serious threat in the NL Wild Card race and their chances of winning the division, while on the long side, are legitimate - the Phillies don't have an unassailable roster and there are some downside scenarios that give real openings to the rest of the East.What puts the Marlins a little behind the Braves is that while they have a really solid roster, there's also a certain lack of depth that can make back luck hit the team a little harder. The Braves have enough arms at AAA to cobble together a better-than-replacement level rotation if they lost all their major leaguers, while the Marlins don't. As a whole, the Marlins don't have a lot of major league-ready talent that can fill-in here or there and while there are lower-level prospects with upside, the trade value thins out quickly after Christian Yelich. Still a solid team, however, but it won't be a walk to the playoffs by any stretch. Next Up: Texas Rangers, Oakland A's, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Mike Stanton R RF 22 .267 .361 .549 156 546 87 146 33 5 37 97 76 169 6 4 140 Jose Reyes B SS 29 .302 .353 .471 118 497 78 150 28 13 10 46 40 50 33 8 119 Hanley Ramirez R 3B 28 .283 .365 .459 132 501 88 142 27 2 19 74 60 94 30 11 119 Logan Morrison L LF 24 .261 .360 .456 133 491 71 128 31 7 17 74 74 105 3 3 117 Gaby Sanchez R 1B 28 .270 .348 .436 146 525 69 142 31 1 18 73 61 91 6 1 109 Chris Coghlan L CF 27 .264 .335 .392 118 462 69 122 27 4 8 42 45 85 13 7 94 Omar Infante R 2B 30 .282 .324 .383 130 472 52 133 20 5 6 47 30 58 4 3 89 Bryan Petersen L CF 26 .259 .334 .379 144 483 61 125 23 4 9 39 52 112 12 7 91 Emilio Bonifacio B SS 27 .263 .326 .347 146 524 76 138 21 7 3 34 50 120 31 10 81 Donnie Murphy R SS 29 .226 .287 .428 55 159 23 36 10 2 6 22 11 44 0 0 89 Terry Tiffee B 1B 33 .269 .295 .399 57 223 26 60 15 1 4 22 8 30 0 1 84 John Buck R C 31 .239 .309 .391 114 381 39 91 17 1 13 52 35 105 0 1 86 Alex Romero L RF 28 .258 .314 .353 121 400 46 103 20 3 4 43 28 59 6 3 79 Kyle Jensen R LF 24 .232 .296 .380 129 482 49 112 19 2 16 59 41 174 3 0 80 Jorge Padilla R RF 32 .263 .325 .342 112 377 48 99 16 1 4 31 30 69 10 6 79 Matt Dominguez R 3B 22 .244 .305 .375 148 544 59 133 31 2 12 75 41 106 0 2 81 Greg Dobbs L 3B 33 .250 .293 .364 114 280 27 70 14 0 6 31 17 57 1 0 75 Scott Cousins L RF 27 .234 .287 .372 105 312 41 73 14 4 7 36 23 89 9 4 75 Josh Kroeger L CF 29 .237 .299 .359 110 409 46 97 21 1 9 47 33 74 11 6 76 Aaron Rowand R CF 34 .236 .290 .370 114 373 45 88 19 2 9 36 19 97 3 3 75 Mike Cervenak R 1B 35 .250 .289 .360 119 436 47 109 22 1 8 47 20 66 2 2 73 Chris Aguila R RF 33 .221 .284 .370 117 411 43 91 20 1 13 43 34 133 5 2 74 Donovan Solano R 2B 24 .250 .288 .336 135 440 47 110 25 2 3 34 22 75 3 0 67 Luke Montz R C 28 .210 .301 .347 103 352 38 74 18 0 10 47 44 112 3 2 73 Cole Armstrong L C 28 .235 .289 .354 84 277 27 65 15 0 6 29 21 69 0 1 71 Gil Velazquez R SS 32 .243 .290 .335 112 382 41 93 17 3 4 29 24 74 8 3 67 Austin Kearns R LF 32 .220 .326 .323 80 232 28 51 10 1 4 19 31 71 1 2 75 Brett Hayes R C 28 .229 .276 .356 73 205 23 47 11 0 5 21 13 58 1 1 68 Orlando Mercado R C 27 .240 .306 .313 88 288 31 69 12 0 3 30 28 51 1 2 67 Alfredo Amezaga B SS 34 .232 .296 .304 66 194 20 45 9 1 1 23 16 38 2 1 61 Shawn Bowman R 3B 27 .218 .263 .350 97 357 36 78 16 2 9 30 19 123 2 2 63 Ramon Vazquez L 2B 35 .229 .302 .295 74 227 23 52 10 1 1 23 23 50 1 1 61 Kevin Mattison L CF 26 .208 .276 .306 129 509 67 106 16 8 6 35 39 163 31 11 56 Clint Sammons R C 29 .206 .272 .325 61 194 21 40 8 0 5 22 16 51 3 1 59 Nick Green R SS 33 .216 .267 .323 112 384 36 83 21 1 6 40 22 97 2 3 58 Chris Gutierrez R SS 28 .208 .303 .270 115 400 46 83 16 3 1 31 52 121 4 2 56 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Mike Stanton VG/111 PO/113 VG/120 Jose Reyes AV/94 Hanley Ramirez AV/107 FR/89 Logan Morrison FR/98 PO/105 Gaby Sanchez AV/91 PO/123 Chris Coghlan FR/94 FR/102 FR/88 FR/71 Omar Infante AV/88 VG/105 VG/108 AV/110 FR/108 AV/108 Bryan Petersen AV/73 AV/112 AV/73 Emilio Bonifacio FR/112 AV/104 FR/107 AV/98 FR/121 AV/105 Donnie Murphy AV/114 AV/100 AV/97 Terry Tiffee FR/105 PO/101 AV/91 John Buck FR Alex Romero FR/94 FR/133 FR/123 Kyle Jensen FR/112 FR/163 FR/163 Jorge Padilla AV/119 AV/81 PO/156 FR/185 Matt Dominguez VG/94 Greg Dobbs AV/110 FR/107 FR/95 FR/110 Scott Cousins VG/88 VG/111 VG/84 Josh Kroeger AV/126 FR/108 PO/83 FR/108 Aaron Rowand VG/109 VG/56 VG/117 Mike Cervenak FR/98 PO/106 FR/106 PO/108 Chris Aguila AV/121 FR/121 AV/111 Donovan Solano VG/110 AV/90 PO/126 Luke Montz VG FR/107 FR/118 FR/112 Cole Armstrong AV Gil Velazquez AV/114 FR/88 AV/94 FR/108 AV/119 Austin Kearns FR/108 PO/97 AV/82 Brett Hayes AV AV/118 Orlando Mercado AV AV/109 PO/117 Alfredo Amezaga AV/85 FR/85 FR/85 AV/85 AV/100 AV/135 Shawn Bowman AV/105 AV/134 Ramon Vazquez AV/100 PO/93 PO/103 Kevin Mattison VG/104 VG/134 VG/101 Clint Sammons VG PO/115 Nick Green FR/98 AV/103 FR/121 FR/109 FR/117 FR/115 Chris Gutierrez AV/105 VG/105 AV/105 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Josh Johnson R 28 2.66 8 3 20 20 128.7 108 38 7 35 123 151 Anibal Sanchez R 28 3.67 11 8 29 29 174.3 164 71 15 63 159 110 Mark Buehrle L 33 3.69 11 9 27 27 178.0 186 73 17 40 100 109 Javier Vazquez R 35 3.75 11 9 27 26 161.0 148 67 19 47 147 107 Carlos Zambrano R 31 4.20 8 8 27 23 137.0 133 64 13 64 115 96 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Ricky Nolasco R 29 4.21 11 11 29 29 181.7 192 85 21 39 152 95 Chad Gaudin R 29 4.39 5 5 31 11 82.0 83 40 8 35 71 91 Wade LeBlanc L 27 4.40 9 10 29 28 163.7 168 80 19 55 124 91 Alex Sanabia R 23 4.44 4 5 20 18 93.3 102 46 11 21 53 91 J.D. Martin R 29 4.60 5 6 25 18 105.7 115 54 15 25 66 87 Tom Koehler R 26 5.05 7 10 26 26 132.0 142 74 15 69 93 80 Elih Villanueva R 25 5.14 7 11 27 27 154.0 179 88 21 50 87 78 Sean West L 26 5.25 6 9 19 19 97.7 112 57 11 48 66 76 Omar Poveda R 24 5.58 5 8 26 26 137.0 161 85 19 63 88 72 Brad Hand L 22 5.61 7 13 29 28 142.7 156 89 22 90 94 72 Robert Ray R 28 5.69 3 5 14 13 68.0 77 43 11 35 46 71 Mark McLemore L 31 5.86 2 3 7 6 27.7 32 18 3 19 14 69 Chad James L 21 5.91 6 12 25 25 120.3 147 79 15 67 80 68 Dallas Trahern R 26 6.03 3 6 18 13 77.7 98 52 9 40 33 67 Jeff Allison R 27 6.88 3 9 28 14 87.7 122 67 16 38 34 58 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Heath Bell R 34 3.02 5 2 61 0 59.7 50 20 4 23 62 133 Randy Choate L 36 3.55 2 1 63 0 33.0 28 13 3 15 34 113 Edward Mujica R 28 3.58 6 4 63 0 75.3 70 30 10 15 68 112 Jose Ceda R 25 3.62 3 2 50 0 54.7 46 22 5 28 61 111 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Juan Oviedo R 28 3.76 4 3 69 0 64.7 59 27 8 23 60 107 Steven Cishek R 26 3.92 4 3 53 0 66.7 62 29 4 34 55 103 Ryan Webb R 26 3.92 4 4 62 0 66.7 68 29 5 25 47 103 Michael Dunn L 27 3.96 4 4 61 0 63.7 52 28 6 44 73 101 Chris Hatcher R 27 4.08 1 1 35 0 35.3 33 16 4 17 33 99 Beau Jones L 25 4.31 2 2 42 1 62.7 59 30 5 37 55 93 Rob Delaney R 27 4.42 5 6 59 0 73.3 74 36 9 29 58 91 Daniel Jennings L 25 4.53 3 4 44 0 55.7 57 28 4 33 44 89 Todd Doolittle R 29 4.66 3 3 26 3 48.3 50 25 6 23 40 86 Peter Andrelczyk R 26 4.70 5 6 46 1 67.0 69 35 7 35 53 85 Arquimedes CaminerR 25 4.80 1 2 22 0 30.0 29 16 3 24 29 84 Sandy Rosario R 26 4.83 3 4 53 0 69.0 75 37 8 29 54 83 Evan Reed R 26 4.93 1 1 31 0 34.7 36 19 3 23 28 81 Chris Sampson R 34 5.00 3 4 33 8 72.0 86 40 8 20 39 80 Mariano Gomez L 29 5.09 3 4 27 1 40.7 44 23 4 22 23 79 Adalberto Mendez R 30 5.28 3 5 29 9 73.3 78 43 9 46 57 76 Ramon Benjamin L 25 5.80 3 5 40 0 54.3 60 35 7 42 40 69 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Jose Reyes .290 .337 .431 2218 9442 1441 2736 471 153 186 871 677 927 608 103 Mike Stanton .261 .365 .517 2629 9051 1435 2363 522 85 541 1564 1410 2638 94 133 Hanley Ramirez .286 .360 .458 2061 7946 1345 2271 450 42 279 1047 865 1332 427 116 Logan Morrison .252 .353 .438 1736 6440 888 1622 392 94 207 907 978 1334 35 111 Omar Infante .275 .317 .383 1601 5558 633 1528 249 54 82 546 349 773 66 87 Aaron Rowand .267 .324 .424 1597 5156 705 1377 307 21 153 610 298 1104 73 94 Gaby Sanchez .265 .341 .420 1340 4807 591 1273 283 11 147 640 533 753 41 103 Chris Coghlan .265 .332 .389 1168 4626 675 1226 274 35 76 403 422 780 97 92 John Buck .238 .302 .397 1458 4871 505 1161 237 15 168 644 388 1217 4 85 Austin Kearns .252 .348 .409 1122 3730 534 939 194 14 122 502 488 935 32 100 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Mark Buehrle 236 188 0 3.91 589 564 3753 4020 1632 407 870 2085 112 Javier Vazquez 227 216 0 4.19 613 597 3785 3694 1764 496 1060 3357 103 Carlos Zambrano 174 132 0 3.87 497 432 2724 2475 1170 247 1259 2284 110 Ricky Nolasco 144 136 0 4.45 388 370 2303 2464 1137 291 522 1914 92 Josh Johnson 142 72 0 3.04 348 337 2173 1938 734 148 642 1993 134 Anibal Sanchez 133 115 0 3.83 385 384 2273 2197 966 213 877 2002 106 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Mike Stanton RF 62% 23% 9% 5% 2% Tom Brunansky Tony Conigliaro Mark McGwire Jose Reyes SS 79% 14% 6% 1% 0% Carlos Guillen Rafael Furcal Jimmy Rollins Hanley Ramirez 3B 45% 28% 14% 8% 4% Ken Boyer Toby Harrah Ian Kinsler Logan Morrison LF 19% 33% 20% 16% 12% Max West Mike Stenhouse Steve DeAngelis Gaby Sanchez 1B 6% 21% 23% 33% 17% Ed Kirkpatrick J.T. Snow Ryan Garko Chris Coghlan CF 6% 13% 28% 32% 21% Bill Virdon Mike Kingery Roy Johnson Omar Infante 2B 7% 10% 15% 26% 42% Manny Trillo Carlos Garcia Jim Gantner Bryan Petersen CF 4% 9% 23% 33% 31% Jacob Cruz Rich Becker Tommy Gregg Emilio Bonifacio SS 8% 16% 29% 27% 21% Jose Vizcaino Pat Listach Freddie Patek Donnie Murphy SS 9% 14% 27% 28% 22% Caonabo Cosme Corey Erickson Pedro Lopez Terry Tiffee 1B 0% 1% 2% 10% 86% Larry Biittner Glenn Adams Dusty Wathan John Buck C 5% 17% 22% 30% 25% Al Lopez Alan Knicely Kelly Stinnett Alex Romero RF 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% Tim Leiper Jake Weber Ricardo Nanita Kyle Jensen LF 0% 1% 3% 10% 85% Eddie Vargas Joe Vitiello Josh Bonifay Jorge Padilla RF 1% 1% 2% 6% 91% Gene Clines Jason Michaels Jim Eppard Matt Dominguez 3B 1% 3% 7% 16% 73% Terry Jorgensen Gary Scott Mike Bell Greg Dobbs 3B 1% 1% 5% 13% 80% Wes Helms Mike Pagliarulo Garth Iorg Scott Cousins RF 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% Jalal Leach John Skurla Andy Tomberlin Josh Kroeger CF 1% 2% 7% 20% 70% Phil Dauphin Jason Fitzgerald Damon Hollins Aaron Rowand CF 0% 1% 4% 16% 79% Darrell Whitmore Chad Mottola Emil Brown Mike Cervenak 1B 0% 0% 1% 4% 96% Roberto Pena Bill Stein Ray Knight Chris Aguila RF 0% 1% 2% 5% 92% Darrell Whitmore Jerry Martin Alan Cockrell Donovan Solano 2B 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% Jorge Velandia Alvaro Espinoza Joshua Lansford Luke Montz C 1% 4% 9% 25% 61% Jeff Ontiveros Jeff Mathis Bill Hayes Cole Armstrong C 2% 4% 8% 23% 64% Craig Tatum Alberto Castillo Brandon Marsters Gil Velazquez SS 1% 2% 6% 17% 74% Casey Smith Jose Olmeda Leo Durocher Austin Kearns LF 0% 1% 1% 3% 95% Junior Spivey Dustan Mohr Chris Sheff Brett Hayes C 1% 2% 5% 19% 73% Brandon Marsters Chris Curry Jim Horner Orlando Mercado C 0% 1% 3% 12% 84% Raul Chavez David Duff Mike Nickeas Alfredo Amezaga SS 0% 1% 4% 11% 84% Willy Miranda Chris Petersen Alfredo Griffin Shawn Bowman 3B 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Aaron Herr Juan Richardson Raul Tablado Ramon Vazquez 2B 0% 1% 1% 4% 94% Dal Maxvill Kevin Baez Jeff Branson Kevin Mattison CF 0% 0% 1% 4% 94% Gary Varsho Tarrik Brock Eric Reed Clint Sammons C 1% 2% 2% 7% 87% Paul Chiaffredo Tom Nieto Dave Ullery Nick Green SS 1% 0% 2% 5% 92% Pete Mackanin Ray Oyler Jason Wood Chris Gutierrez SS 0% 0% 0% 3% 96% Drew Niles Douglas Bernier Darrin Duffy Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Josh Johnson SP 92% 3% 5% Alejandro Pena Bret Saberhagen Scott Sanderson Heath Bell RP 62% 33% 5% Jay Howell Skip Lockwood Dave Smith Randy Choate RP 34% 42% 24% Tony Fossas Trever Miller Mark Guthrie Edward Mujica RP 29% 56% 15% Bruce Walton Mark Huismann Jose Melendez Jose Ceda RP 33% 46% 21% Eric Cammack Ryan Bukvich Steve Sharts Anibal Sanchez SP 51% 44% 5% Jim Beattie Kirk McCaskill Vicente Padilla Mark Buehrle SP 50% 40% 10% Paul Minner Jim Kaat Geoff Zahn Javier Vazquez SP 46% 48% 6% Mark Leiter Mike Krukow Mike Mussina Juan Oviedo RP 24% 50% 25% La Marr Hoyt Brian Sanches Pete Ladd Steven Cishek RP 19% 56% 25% Mike Schultz Andy Shipman Clay Bryant Ryan Webb RP 14% 53% 33% David Wilhelmi Rafael Montalvo Daryl Irvine Michael Dunn RP 15% 46% 39% Ricky Pickett Ron Villone Armando Almanza Chris Hatcher RP 20% 39% 42% Scott Gentile Jason Bulger Jose Veras Carlos Zambrano SP 18% 58% 23% Pat Rapp Vicente Padilla Bobby Witt Ricky Nolasco SP 17% 60% 23% David Bush Dennis Eckersley Jose Lima Beau Jones RP 9% 43% 48% Brian Snyder Scott Wiggins Carlos Vasquez Chad Gaudin SP 6% 41% 53% Steve Shields Mike LaCoss Mike Ayers Wade LeBlanc SP 11% 58% 31% Rick Krivda Glenn Dishman Lance Painter Rob Delaney RP 4% 35% 60% Rob Stanifer Joseph Haines Rick Heiserman Alex Sanabia SP 16% 46% 38% Dave Telgheder Jose Martinez Gil Heredia Daniel Jennings RP 4% 35% 61% Gary Wayne Mike Venafro Brian Snyder J.D. Martin SP 12% 40% 48% Ryan Hawblitzel Kris Wilson Matt Ginter Todd Doolittle RP 6% 26% 68% Bo Donaldson Rick Luecken Jesus Colome Peter Andrelczyk RP 3% 27% 70% Anastacio Martinez Jordan DeJong Steve Hoeme Arquimedes CaminerRP 8% 29% 64% Josh Banks Jeff Smith Rafael Pimentel Sandy Rosario RP 2% 25% 73% Danny Rueckel Jamie Brewington Chris Mabeus Evan Reed RP 6% 22% 72% Jeff Smith Pete Sikaras Steve LaRose Chris Sampson RP 3% 18% 79% Jose Bautista Mark Ross Mickey Weston Tom Koehler SP 1% 26% 73% Don Robinson Jared Wells Brett Roberts Mariano Gomez RP 3% 21% 76% Bryan Clark Todd Rizzo Ted Wills Elih Villanueva SP 0% 17% 82% Bill King Cameron Reimers Andrew Baldwin Sean West SP 1% 17% 82% Phil Coke Ben Kozlowski Charlie Hough Adalberto Mendez RP 1% 9% 91% Jarod Juelsgaard Steve Green Ken Ray Omar Poveda SP 0% 6% 94% David Pauley Jim Johnson Rick Bauer Brad Hand SP 0% 4% 96% Tom Fischer Shawn Bryant Tom Singer Robert Ray SP 1% 8% 91% Chris Beasley Doug Gogolewski Kerry Taylor Ramon Benjamin RP 0% 4% 96% Erick Burke Carmen Cali Julio Guerrero Mark McLemore SP 5% 16% 79% David Manning Jim Abbott Dan Smith Chad James SP 0% 3% 97% Larry Thomas Bruce Lockhart Mark Freed Dallas Trahern SP 0% 4% 96% Kevin Hodges Andy Larkin Edwardo Sierra Jeff Allison SP 0% 0% 100% Brian Sweeney Dave Gil Scott Shoemaker Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Mike Stanton 12% 31% 75% 10% 11% 77% 47% 0% Jose Reyes 53% 23% 24% 1% 67% 2% 13% 55% Hanley Ramirez 26% 35% 20% 1% 0% 7% 14% 40% Logan Morrison 5% 30% 14% 3% 25% 3% 9% 0% Gaby Sanchez 10% 15% 5% 4% 0% 3% 3% 0% Chris Coghlan 6% 6% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 3% Omar Infante 24% 3% 1% 0% 7% 0% 1% 0% Bryan Petersen 4% 6% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% Emilio Bonifacio 7% 4% 0% 0% 26% 0% 0% 52% Donnie Murphy 2% 1% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Terry Tiffee 18% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% John Buck 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Alex Romero 4% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Kyle Jensen 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% Jorge Padilla 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Matt Dominguez 1% 1% 1% 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% Greg Dobbs 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Scott Cousins 1% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% Josh Kroeger 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Aaron Rowand 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mike Cervenak 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chris Aguila 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Donovan Solano 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Luke Montz 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Cole Armstrong 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gil Velazquez 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% Austin Kearns 1% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brett Hayes 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Orlando Mercado 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Alfredo Amezaga 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Shawn Bowman 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ramon Vazquez 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Kevin Mattison 0% 0% 0% 0% 34% 0% 0% 50% Clint Sammons 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Nick Green 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chris Gutierrez 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Josh Johnson 82% 94% 72% 22% 98% Heath Bell 54% 90% 88% 2% 94% Randy Choate 34% 67% 77% 2% 79% Edward Mujica 23% 76% 53% 78% 38% Jose Ceda 26% 73% 93% 0% 75% Anibal Sanchez 17% 79% 55% 0% 83% Mark Buehrle 20% 70% 2% 55% 76% Javier Vazquez 12% 74% 58% 10% 49% Juan Oviedo 18% 61% 64% 4% 52% Steven Cishek 19% 69% 29% 0% 95% Ryan Webb 10% 53% 4% 2% 87% Michael Dunn 11% 54% 97% 0% 67% Chris Hatcher 20% 48% 55% 1% 71% Carlos Zambrano 3% 42% 27% 0% 74% Ricky Nolasco 2% 41% 25% 57% 50% Beau Jones 6% 44% 42% 0% 82% Chad Gaudin 4% 34% 35% 0% 68% Wade LeBlanc 1% 30% 7% 1% 47% Rob Delaney 3% 27% 15% 1% 46% Alex Sanabia 3% 35% 0% 54% 43% Daniel Jennings 4% 32% 16% 0% 88% J.D. Martin 3% 25% 1% 46% 32% Todd Doolittle 3% 25% 28% 1% 51% Peter Andrelczyk 2% 24% 14% 0% 57% Arquimedes Caminer 8% 27% 62% 0% 66% Sandy Rosario 1% 21% 14% 0% 62% Evan Reed 3% 20% 22% 0% 73% Chris Sampson 2% 18% 1% 27% 55% Tom Koehler 0% 6% 2% 0% 55% Mariano Gomez 2% 18% 2% 0% 74% Elih Villanueva 0% 3% 0% 2% 26% Sean West 0% 4% 1% 0% 56% Adalberto Mendez 0% 5% 13% 0% 50% Omar Poveda 0% 1% 0% 0% 28% Brad Hand 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% Robert Ray 0% 2% 3% 0% 25% Ramon Benjamin 0% 3% 9% 0% 50% Mark McLemore 1% 9% 1% 0% 64% Chad James 0% 0% 1% 0% 40% Dallas Trahern 0% 1% 0% 0% 63% Jeff Allison 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Diamondbacks Indians Nationals Blue Jays Rays Royals Reds Brewers Orioles Rockies Braves Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 06, 2012 at 01:39 PM | 31 comment(s)
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1. Moe Greene Posted: February 06, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4054758)Also: Poor Jeff Allison. :(
Yeah, they've only got 25 above-average starting pitchers. :-)
(This comment will make no sense after Dan fixes whatever is wrong with the ERA+s; maybe the Marlins new park factor isn't really 1000 :-)
And Stanton is a god! When both ZiPS and I look at a guy with a ridiculously high K rate and say "damn this guy is good" -- well, don't think it's ever happened before.
I don't think there is any doubt they would have been. Reyes feels like an awfully big risk given his injury history and the way those injuries run the very real risk of robbing him of his primary asset moving forward.
I'm not so sure. Pujols is probably worth about 30 runs more per season than Reyes on offense, although obviously Reyes has the worse track record when it comes to health. I don't know how bad Gaby Sanchez would be at 3B, but it wouldn't surprise me if the defensive alignment they have now (Sanchez at 1B, Infante at 2B, Reyes at SS and Hanley at 3B) is 20 runs better than the alignment they'd have with Pujols at 1B, Infante at 2B, Hanley at SS and Sanchez at 3B. So are you better off being 10 runs worse overall (30 runs worse offensively and 20 runs better defensively) with the money that you saved by spending on Reyes instead of Pujols?
Seems obvious that they would be, simply because Pujols is the greater player. Any team-specific concerns can usually be addressed by trade (if you think Sanchez would not be able to handle 3B, then trade him for someone who could).
I dunno. What would ZiPS say about a young Reggie Jackson or Mike Schmidt. Stanton's age 21 season is pretty similar to Reggie's age 22.
Bruno: never put up a 141 OPS+, 130 (at age 21) was his peak, Bruno also hit .332/.430/.633 in AAA (PCL) at age 20.
Awhile back a Twin fan mentioned that Bruno had always been an underachieving flameout, I replied that to me that was odd, Bruno had always seemed to be an overachiever who simply persevered and produced despite a seeming lack of raw talent... looking at BBREF I think the Twinkies fan's take is more right.
I really hope that Stanton does not take the Bruno career path, pluses are that he's not that similar IMHO, he's better- more raw power for one thing, he also Ks a lot more, as a hitter he's more like a Dave Kingman who walks more (Kingman was a better hitter than Brunansky BTW, 3 years OPS+ over Bruno's top, a 9 point career advantage, a Kingman who both walks and is not a roving defensive catastrophe would be a good player, better than Bruno anyway)
Tony C.? I can see that, of course Tony C has limited value as a projection data point.
Mark McGwire? I can see that too.
Even so, the Reyes contract is a bad one. He had a BABIP adjusted 3.9 WAR 2011 season, and was worth that, total, for 2009 and 2010. He's close to the point where he shouldn't be playing SS any more.
What of Reyes' 06-08 stretch? He averaged 6 WAR. It's reasonable to say that Reyes lost '09 (injury) and down '10 (not fully recovered) are not representative of his performance when right. Moreover, Reyes is only 28 this coming season. I don't think Reyes is a great bet on the back half of this deal, but I think he'll deliver in the near-term.
I dunno.
I meant I dunno if ZiPS and I have both viewed such a player as good which, naturally, only covers what I assume the rest of you refer to as the Walt-ZiPS era.
Of course that may be because I never like ultra-high K players. :-)
And Schmidt and Jackson didn't K at anything like these rates. Other than Rob Deer, Swish Nicholson and maybe a couple of others, nobody K'd at these sorts of rates until the last 20 years or so. Reggie is the only HoFer with a K-rate worse than 1 per 4 AB. McGwire would have joined him, Thome will and Sosa probably won't. Edmonds is also a serious HoF contender. Thome has a slightly worse K-rate than Stanton's career projection. ZiPS probably liked Thome at 22 (big age-21 year at AA-AAA followed by huge AAA and ML year at 22).
If you look at guys with at least 1 K per 3.5 AB through age 22 (min 500 PA) you get a list of often good but not often great players -- well, mostly too soon to tell.
Stanton
Dunn -- not looking that good
Reggie
Monday
Hisle
Upton I and II -- Justin could be great, BJ only looking good
Danny Walton
Incaviglia
Snider
Wily Mo
Sosa -- had a nice peak :-)
Andujar Cedeno (yikes!)
Benji Gil (double yikes!)
Of course to even get a shot in the majors at that age with that K-rate you have to crush the ball when you hit it so it's generally a quite talented bunch. Now, 2 HoFers (counting Sosa) out of 14 ain't bad odds.
Mike Stanton's career line: HOF? Seems like it to me assuming that VG defense ages normally
See last year's Jason Heyward discussion. Close call -- 10,000 PA, low 130s OPS+ is about the historical borderline for a corner OF. 500+ HR and 1500+ RBI should put him on the right side of that border.
For example, McGriff has just over 10,000 PA and a 134 OPS+ and not getting much attention but Billy Williams at 133 is in. Al Simmons and Zack Wheat (VC) are in while Dwight Evans and presumably Bobby Abreu are out. Sosa is also in this group. (Reggie was 139 in nearly 11,500 PA so he's 1-2 steps above that Stanton projection.) The Evans and Abreu situations suggest the defense might not matter much.
Note, many folks in the "roughly 10,000 PA and 130ish OPS+" are the 3000 hit/high BA guys (Carew, Gwynn, Clemente, Waner) so not good comps for Stanton, Simmons and Wheat had nearly 3000 hits too. Mainly the conclusion you draw from that list is that McGriff is getting screwed.
That'd be good for 14th all-time, post-1900, right between Otis Nixon and Maury Wills.
Well, he only reason Schmidt isn't on the list is that he had only 40 PA through age 22. Through age 24, he fits in nicely, and that doesn't count his 180 K season at age 25.
I'm not saying that he's going to be Reggie or Schmidt, but Dave Kingman with walks and a glove is a damned fine player.
But given he's already got those 1000 PA and will likely have 1600 by the time Schmidt had 40, it's reasonable to think he's got a decent shot at being a better hitter than Schmidt. He certainly projects better -- Schmidt was quite awful in his half-season at AA at 21.
I'm actually sort of surprised Stanton doesn't project to a higher career OPS+. He had a 141 last year and is projected to 140 this year which I assume would peak a little bit around 27 (say 150) and stay there through his early 30s then decline. I guess I'd have thought ZiPS would project him to about 12-14 years of 140+ meaning it would take a pretty ugly 6-8 years after that to get the average down to 133.
By the way, if I do that list properly (500+ PA, at least 1 K per 3.5 AB, ages 20-21) the list is just Stanton, J Upton and Canseco. High-K young guys just aren't going to break through very often. The raw Stanton/Upton numbers are quite close but Stanton has him by 12 OPS+ points.
MS 997 PA, 261/344/525, 132 OPS+
JU 1005 PA, 280/361/505, 120 OPS+
Drop it to 400 PA and you pick up Strawberry, a quite close comp (except for the whole handedness thing).
1) Concept 1 are the direct effects of k-rate itself. On this your comparisons are sound, a 1-in-3 k-rate is a 1-in-3 k-rate regardless.
2) What that k-rate says about the player's underlying abilities. For this the k-rates of guys like Stanton need to be put in context, and in context Schmidt struck out a ton more than Stanton. Not a lot of guys have succeeded with Stanton's k-rate, but until the 1960s nobody had those kind of k-rates including pitchers.
I'm convinced that there are positive aspects of hitting associated with higher strikeout rates that go beyond mere selection bias, particularly since there appears to be negative aspects of low strikeout rates that shouldn't be affected much by selection bias. If Mike Stanton strikes out a lot, it could be because he's a terrible hitter. But it's pretty clear he's not a terrible hitter. So he probably strikes out a lot due to a combination of several things, most of which are designed to result in hitting the ball as hard as possible when he does hit it.
The negative aspects for the future with high k-rates are known: BABIP regresses much more severely than k-rate, so Stanton's predicted future batting average does drop. But I also believe that predicted future home run rates go up a decent amount, and predicted future BABIP probably goes up very slightly too. Furthermore k-rate does regress some, and does improve as a player ages and so a player with Stanton's k-rate has greater room for improvement there.
I think the end result is that the downside of all of those strikeouts (low future AVG) is mitigated to a large extent (but not entirely) by the positive indicators in other areas.
When I first started doing projections back in the late 90s, I found that not accounting for the positive aspects of high strikeout totals led to less accurate projections and caused me to miss more than I should have on players like Darrin Fletcher and Bobby Abreu.
Oops, stopped it in the middle of a recalculation, I think - Hodges is right, but the other two should be Andy Larkin and Edwardo Sierra.
I think it's the milestone (500+ HR) that really tilts the scales in Stanton's favor, plus the high RBIs and nearly 2400 hits help as well. I don't disagree that defense probably won't be properly valued in Stanton or other corner outfielders cases but where I think it helps him more is that he has the milestones to point to, Abreu and Evans are/will be viewed by many voters as good defenders who didn't do anything special offensively to merit induction. Stanton on the other hand would get highlighted as being a big slugger who was far more than just a bat.
My immediate assumption was that Crawford would be higher but his bad year must have killed his career projection, he's 30 behind Reyes. If the site archives worked correctly (I can't seem to go back further than 2 pages in TO archives and a google search for last year's projections turned up the comments without the projections) I would check to see for sure but I assume he would have been higher than 608 pre-2011. After that I was ready to concede your point until I suddenly had a thought. That was proven correct because I give you your ZiPS career projection SB leader with 609: Juan Pierre!
Stanton's 22 this year, the same age Conigliaro was when he got beaned. Let's hope that part of the similarity doesn't hold up.
One problem is that there are not all that many guys with 500+ PAs at those ages to begin with- 213 with 500+ PAs through age 21 (1901 to present), on taht list Mike Stanton's OPS+ of 132 is 18th
The 20 worst k rates (K/pa):
Mike Stanton .290
Jose Canseco .263
Justin Upton .255
Sammy Sosa .252
Rick Monday .243
Freddie Freeman .228
Darrell Porter .225
Miguel Cabrera .225
Andruw Jones .219
Jason Heyward .205
Greg Luzinski .204
Lloyd Moseby .203
Juan Gonzalez .202
Johnny Callison .198
Jimmy Smith .192
Tom Brunansky .189
Rocco Baldelli .187
Delmon Young .186
Sixto Lezcano .185
Tony Conigliaro .185
The real outlier is Jimmy Smith, he did that in the teens, career OPS+ of 63, WAR says he was a putrid fielder as well...
If you rank them by K/bb you get this:
Delmon Young 6.04
Garry Templeton 5.42
Harold Baines 5.42
Sammy Sosa 5.18
Jose Guillen 5.18
Rocco Baldelli 4.92
Jay Johnstone 4.87
Joe Cassidy 4.87
Carl Crawford 4.61
Roberto Clemente 4.54
Orlando Cepeda 4.09
Lloyd Moseby 4.07
Aurelio Rodriguez 3.82
Joe Dugan 3.74
Jose Reyes 3.72
Jack Heidemann 3.58
John Knight 3.58
Juan Gonzalez 3.56
Jimmy Smith 3.55
Ivan Rodriguez 3.49
Rennie Stennett 3.47
Larry Parrish 3.44
Claudell Washington 3.34
Ruben Sierra 3.31
Ozzie Guillen 3.27
Ken Hubbs 3.19
Paul Molitor 3.18
Mike Stanton 3.14
Bob Horner 3.05
Eric Hosmer 3.04
Sweet. I know him and his family. Great guy and it was a shame he didn't have more success in the majors.
I am not nearly sabremetric enough to hold my own in a discussion with you fellas. But when I saw Stanton play last year, he reminded me of a right handed Reggie Jackson: tremendous power, lots of whifs and a very atheletic frame.
But when I came here I realized how incredibly young Stanton is. If his age curve is typical, he won't hit his peak for another 4 or 5 years. While he may or may not turn into the next Reggie Jackson, I am eager to watch him grow. I would love it if Stanton has the kind or 3rd season that Reggie enjoyed: 47 HR, .275/.410/.608, 334 total bases
If Stanton does match those numbers, though, I hope it isn't his career peak. Reggie never got close to those numbers again in his long, illustrious career.
And here we disagree. K-rate is K-rate. It kills BA and therefore puts an upper limit on how good a guy can be. If Stanton at age 30 is hitting 230 then he maxes out at something like 230/350/530 -- still a damn good hitter but impossible for him to be better than that. I'm guessing this is the future that ZiPS sees.
Jim Thome is the guy who, to an extent, broke the mold. But he did so by being the 2nd greatest on-contact hitter in baseball history (to Ruth). Clearly Thome won't be unique and, of course, nobody needs to be as good as Jim Thome to be an excellent player.
And there aren't positive aspects to strikeouts (other than avoiding DPs). There are, of course, positive aspects to sacrificing contact in exchange for hitting the ball as hard as you can especially if you have a good enough eye to walk a lot and you hit the ball in the air. This is the story of baseball over the last 20 years or so.
Stanton's on-contact BA/SLG are currently 390/780. That's not likely to be sustainable but it's also not hard to see him as, say, 380/760 for some years which isn't going to make a big difference. Point being that, with that K-rate, Stanton is already performing at about the highest possible sustainable level already. There is not a lot of room for growth unless he drops the K-rate. There is a good bit of room to fall and still be a very good player even with that K-rate.
What sets Stanton above some of his fellow young, high-K recent counterparts are (a) massive power -- for these ages, you can only argue that maybe Mathews and Pujols have been more impressive (a fair number have been his equal); (b) high walk rate -- not unique but high power and walks at this young age are a very promising combo; (c) apparently outstanding defense. Stanton does not look like a hitter who will get eaten alive by the Ks (as opposed to, say, Wily Mo Pena who started it all :-) and, with his defense, even if he were to decline to something like a 115 OPS+, he's gonna still be above-average. His absolute downside is something like Rob Deer or Mike Cameron which is not too shabby for an absolute downside.
The drawback is that BA. Among 152 players with 500+ PA at age 21, he's #114 in BA. So, despite the very good walk rate, he's only 48th in OBP. He's not going to be able to improve on that without dropping the K-rate (or becoming the greatest on-contact hitter blah blah blah). At 21, he had a lower OBP than Adrian Beltre. Of recent vintage, he's behind Pujols, Griffey, AROD, Heyward (20-21), J Upton and Cabrera, tied with Castro (20-21) but ahead of Andruw and Sheffield. Of those guys, Upton and Andruw are the best comps for the type of hitter Stanton is right now -- which is nothing to sneeze at but they're clearly 2nd tier in that bunch.
None of which means that K-rate is destiny. Stanton might improve his K-rate as he matures and, if he can do so without sacrificing much power, then he might move into Miguel Cabrera territory (hard to see him ever hitting 330).
Anyway, I'd love for Dan to post his full career projection. It does seem to me that ZiPS can't be seeing much growth from his current point or ZiPS must be seeing a fairly dramatic (but long-lasting?) decline. But maybe I'm wrong on that.
That's pretty much it. ZiPS has his BA peaking in the mid-.270s and only adding a few more homers a year at his best and generally in the high 140s until 31/32 when he starts to drop off steadily.
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