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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Tuesday, January 03, 20122012 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee BrewersThe Brewers projections go up and just about the perfect time: after Betancourt is gone, after Ramirez is signed, but before Fielder signs elsewhere. Fielder's a great player, but the Brewers really do have a solid team that can survive even the loss of their best hitter, especially given that the Cardinals are doing the same thing with the loss of their franchise player.I'm not too thrilled with the way the whole Aramis Ramirez thing worked out. Aramis is probably a better player than Taylor Green in 2012 and I think the Brewers would have been better served going after a shortstop, a position which is a real mess organizationally and was horrific last year thanks to He Who Will Be Not Named Except on a Royals Contract. I've got some more Yuni-bashing ($2 million?) but I'll save that for the Royals thing. Even if you assume that Reyes was too expensive *and* Rollins and Furcal were destined to return to their teams, the team should've probably at least tried to outbid the Phillies or Cardinals. Clint Barmes isn't a great player, but he's solid defensively and I really think he would've been a good fit if the team wasn't confident about landing one of the other shortstops. I don't think Gamel-Weeks-Barmes-Green is a worse infield than Gamel-Weeks-Gonzalez-Ramirez and it would've left an additional chunk of money to go after Roy Oswalt for a very lucrative 1-year deal (a playoff competitive team adding a good player to fill a hole should find it almost impossible to overpay in a 1-year contract because the long tail on the bad side is almost impossible to cripple long-term). That being said, the Brewers got so little out of a truly embarrassing left side of the infield that Gamel-Weeks-Gonzalez-Ramirez is as good as Fielder-Weeks-Betancourt-McGehee brought last year. That's how awful they were at SS or 3B. While trying to win with terrible players so that you can make up for losing a star easier is an absolutely terrible plan, in this particular case, it gave the Brewers some upside to recover from Fielder's loss in the short-term. Don't get too excited about Fiers and Estrada projecting so well - they're both projected to a mixed role with a lot of relief innings. As full-time starters, they drop well below Randy Wolf, with Fiers being around Narveson and Estrada being below. Next Up: Cincinnati Reds
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Prince Fielder L 1B 28 .281 .405 .539 156 555 89 156 30 1 37 111 107 125 2 1 152 Ryan Braun R LF 28 .296 .360 .525 156 608 97 180 39 5 30 107 55 110 22 5 135 Aramis Ramirez R 3B 34 .278 .340 .476 123 464 65 129 27 1 21 89 39 71 1 1 117 Rickie Weeks R 2B 29 .260 .350 .460 115 450 74 117 24 3 20 55 51 113 10 3 116 Corey Hart R RF 30 .270 .333 .481 139 526 76 142 31 4 24 76 45 119 10 6 116 Mat Gamel L 1B 26 .264 .341 .433 135 466 57 123 29 1 16 80 51 132 3 2 107 Norichika Aoki L CF 30 .289 .338 .393 144 608 82 176 27 9 6 61 38 59 10 6 97 Taylor Green L 3B 25 .264 .324 .423 152 527 53 139 37 1 15 85 46 105 1 1 100 Caleb Gindl L RF 23 .266 .334 .401 148 563 63 150 30 5 12 63 55 112 8 6 97 Jordan Brown L LF 28 .270 .303 .403 125 467 51 126 31 2 9 59 22 70 2 1 88 George Kottaras L C 29 .239 .316 .401 75 222 26 53 13 1 7 29 26 58 1 1 92 Brendan Katin R RF 29 .222 .284 .444 81 284 35 63 17 2 14 45 19 99 1 0 93 Jonathan Lucroy R C 26 .254 .313 .375 139 480 49 122 23 1 11 64 41 98 4 1 85 Nyjer Morgan L CF 31 .266 .324 .353 128 451 62 120 18 6 3 35 29 80 25 11 83 Carlos Gomez R CF 26 .243 .296 .374 127 350 51 85 15 5 7 34 23 89 22 6 80 Felipe Lopez B 2B 32 .255 .316 .364 119 431 53 110 21 1 8 49 37 86 5 3 83 Zelous Wheeler R 3B 25 .239 .319 .358 129 464 49 111 24 2 9 55 46 107 9 3 83 Logan Schafer L CF 25 .262 .318 .357 94 370 45 97 18 4 3 33 27 60 10 7 82 Sea Bass Gonzalez R SS 35 .245 .282 .399 131 489 55 120 29 2 14 60 22 98 1 1 81 Eric Farris R 2B 26 .257 .291 .342 129 514 52 132 21 4 5 43 22 69 25 6 70 Travis Ishikawa L 1B 28 .231 .306 .365 100 260 32 60 15 1 6 37 26 78 2 2 80 Erick Almonte R 1B 34 .246 .302 .338 105 305 29 75 14 1 4 34 24 65 2 1 73 Andy Gonzalez R SS 30 .230 .309 .326 94 304 30 70 11 0 6 29 33 78 3 1 72 Hainley Statia B SS 26 .246 .303 .324 96 321 35 79 16 3 1 37 26 45 5 2 69 Kentrail Davis L RF 24 .223 .292 .339 138 542 69 121 24 9 7 55 39 130 18 7 70 Chris Nowak R 3B 29 .227 .289 .336 79 286 30 65 12 2 5 37 23 74 5 2 68 Martin Maldonado R C 25 .230 .296 .332 112 365 36 84 16 0 7 43 26 99 2 2 69 Craig Counsell L SS 41 .236 .319 .298 96 161 16 38 5 1 1 14 18 23 1 1 68 Cesar Izturis B SS 32 .248 .291 .306 90 278 27 69 9 2 1 23 14 34 8 3 61 Brock Kjeldgaard R RF 26 .201 .268 .354 148 542 43 109 22 2 19 67 40 245 8 3 66 Brandon Jones L RF 28 .216 .291 .325 101 357 37 77 20 2 5 41 38 100 3 2 66 Edwin Maysonet R SS 30 .233 .285 .311 107 373 39 87 18 1 3 34 24 83 2 1 61 Mike Rivera R C 35 .202 .274 .314 59 188 19 38 9 0 4 22 16 63 1 1 58 Anderson Machado B SS 31 .192 .271 .267 65 172 17 33 8 1 1 17 19 55 2 1 46 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Prince Fielder FR/91 Ryan Braun AV/56 Aramis Ramirez FR/99 Rickie Weeks VG/128 Corey Hart AV/78 Mat Gamel AV/128 FR/151 FR/113 FR/113 Norichika Aoki AV/100 AV/100 AV/100 Taylor Green AV/118 PO/94 AV/110 Caleb Gindl AV/114 FR/111 FR/164 Jordan Brown AV/118 AV/69 FR/142 George Kottaras FR Brendan Katin FR/118 FR/119 Jonathan Lucroy AV Nyjer Morgan EX/85 EX/104 EX/101 Carlos Gomez VG/78 EX/78 VG/78 Felipe Lopez VG/112 FR/114 FR/110 PO/101 Zelous Wheeler FR/120 AV/99 PO/142 Logan Schafer AV/61 AV/75 AV/61 Sea Bass Gonzalez VG/76 Eric Farris AV/88 FR/118 Travis Ishikawa VG/62 AV/127 AV/127 Erick Almonte AV/121 PO/110 FR/83 FR/95 Andy Gonzalez AV/117 AV/110 FR/108 AV/122 AV/119 AV/120 Hainley Statia VG/87 AV/111 Kentrail Davis VG/143 AV/117 VG/143 Chris Nowak 127/ FR/89 AV/110 Martin Maldonado VG Craig Counsell VG/82 AV/102 AV/88 Cesar Izturis VG/74 VG/63 Brock Kjeldgaard AV/159 AV/124 PO/142 AV/131 Brandon Jones VG/101 AV/109 Edwin Maysonet VG/101 VG/96 AV/105 Mike Rivera AV Anderson Machado AV/117 FR/116 FR/97 FR/126 AV/116 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Zack Greinke R 28 2.98 16 7 31 31 199.0 170 66 17 49 224 136 Yovani Gallardo R 26 3.46 16 9 32 32 195.3 173 75 20 70 206 117 Shaun Marcum R 30 3.51 10 6 25 25 151.3 137 59 16 41 129 115 Michael Fiers R 27 4.01 7 5 27 14 94.3 88 42 12 36 84 101 Marco Estrada R 28 4.03 5 4 30 11 87.0 83 39 10 28 73 100 Randy Wolf L 35 4.04 11 8 28 28 178.0 175 80 22 61 120 100 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Chris Narveson L 30 4.32 9 8 34 22 141.7 140 68 17 56 115 94 Eulogio de la CruzR 28 4.50 5 5 40 15 110.0 109 55 11 58 85 90 Wily Peralta R 23 4.67 8 8 25 25 135.0 140 70 14 68 105 87 Manny Parra L 29 4.80 5 6 23 12 80.7 84 43 10 41 71 84 Amaury Rivas R 26 4.98 8 10 26 25 130.0 140 72 15 67 84 81 Tyler Thornburg R 23 5.06 7 9 23 23 117.3 110 66 19 79 114 80 Cody Scarpetta R 23 5.14 7 9 26 26 115.7 121 66 11 78 88 79 Sam Narron L 30 5.49 5 7 21 18 114.7 147 70 15 34 52 74 Kyle Heckathorn R 24 5.74 6 9 23 22 109.7 133 70 16 48 63 70 Josh Butler R 27 5.89 5 9 24 23 113.0 137 74 16 61 64 69 Nicholas Bucci R 21 6.11 6 10 25 22 119.3 135 81 20 79 78 66 Mark Rogers R 26 6.21 3 5 21 19 66.7 72 46 9 59 50 65 Chase Wright L 29 6.44 5 9 26 20 110.3 148 79 16 53 49 63 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ John Axford R 29 3.07 6 3 62 0 67.3 54 23 5 33 77 132 Francisco RodrigueR 30 3.23 5 2 64 0 64.0 53 23 6 27 72 125 Kameron Loe R 30 3.61 6 4 70 0 72.3 69 29 7 22 57 112 Zach Braddock L 24 3.65 1 1 42 0 37.0 29 15 3 22 44 111 Brandon Kintzler R 27 3.71 2 1 23 0 26.7 25 11 3 7 23 109 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Mark DiFelice R 35 3.86 2 1 32 0 35.0 33 15 4 11 32 105 Jose Veras R 31 3.86 4 3 65 0 63.0 52 27 7 34 69 105 Tim Dillard R 28 3.93 4 3 46 0 68.7 67 30 7 23 53 103 Mike McClendon R 27 4.01 6 5 45 1 76.3 80 34 6 24 49 101 Marco Estrada R 28 4.03 5 4 30 11 87.0 83 39 10 28 73 100 Robert W00t3n R 26 4.24 3 3 58 0 57.3 56 27 6 26 49 96 Dan Meadows L 24 4.27 6 5 42 1 78.0 75 37 10 30 65 95 Randy Flores L 36 4.32 3 2 54 0 41.7 42 20 5 15 32 94 Sean Green R 33 4.44 2 2 45 0 48.7 49 24 4 26 36 91 Robert Hinton R 27 4.83 3 3 48 0 63.3 65 34 8 33 55 84 Zack Segovia R 29 5.09 3 4 47 0 63.7 72 36 7 31 42 80 Donovan Hand R 26 5.18 4 5 43 3 74.7 90 43 9 22 37 78 Mitch Stetter L 31 5.22 1 1 40 0 29.3 31 17 5 13 25 78 Santo Manzanillo R 23 5.37 1 1 41 0 55.3 57 33 7 36 42 75 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Ryan Braun .292 .351 .505 2191 8634 1326 2523 523 65 395 1433 704 1454 246 127 Prince Fielder .271 .380 .499 2501 9022 1307 2447 484 23 509 1575 1447 1813 25 133 Aramis Ramirez .279 .336 .483 2331 8769 1180 2446 504 25 412 1546 668 1286 21 111 Rickie Weeks .253 .343 .426 1714 6650 1076 1683 319 49 244 721 728 1541 159 105 Corey Hart .268 .326 .466 1651 6127 867 1639 351 51 254 850 485 1276 125 109 Felipe Lopez .261 .327 .383 1605 5865 780 1530 290 35 118 608 565 1188 139 88 Nyjer Morgan .275 .333 .358 936 3303 460 907 134 43 18 240 219 554 184 86 Carlos Gomez .241 .293 .368 1292 3604 519 870 157 43 71 346 224 872 189 77 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Zack Greinke 221 153 1 3.47 543 501 3238 3005 1249 324 819 3316 120 Yovani Gallardo 211 141 0 3.61 457 455 2804 2508 1124 312 1043 2946 113 Randy Wolf 178 159 0 4.22 500 496 3073 3033 1440 396 1104 2292 99 Shaun Marcum 122 89 1 3.86 360 335 2003 1878 860 257 592 1638 106 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Prince Fielder 1B 74% 20% 4% 2% 0% Boog Powell Adrian Gonzalez Norm Cash Ryan Braun LF 66% 23% 6% 3% 1% Matt Holliday Del Ennis Hank Bauer Aramis Ramirez 3B 30% 35% 21% 10% 3% Brooks Robinson Mike Lowell Pinky Higgins Rickie Weeks 2B 63% 17% 11% 7% 3% Sean Berry Junior Spivey Mike Shannon Corey Hart RF 20% 29% 19% 17% 15% Ben Broussard Rick Reichardt Ellis Burks Mat Gamel 1B 5% 19% 22% 33% 21% David Ortiz Adam LaRoche Mario Valdez Norichika Aoki CF 8% 14% 27% 29% 21% Vic Davalillo Doc Cramer Lloyd Waner Taylor Green 3B 6% 19% 26% 26% 23% Scott Cooper Ed Sprague Roy Howell Caleb Gindl RF 3% 10% 13% 22% 54% Dale Holman Ryan Sweeney Andre Ethier Jordan Brown LF 0% 2% 6% 17% 75% Carlos Rivera Quinn Mack Carmine Cappuccio George Kottaras C 14% 25% 22% 23% 16% Russ McGinnis Steve Holm Mike Rose Brendan Katin RF 1% 6% 11% 23% 58% Juan Diaz Scott Wade Chris Hatcher Jonathan Lucroy C 4% 17% 25% 34% 20% Jason Jaramillo Koyie Hill Adam Moore Nyjer Morgan CF 2% 5% 16% 31% 46% Willie Wilson Milt Thompson Dave Roberts Carlos Gomez CF 3% 8% 22% 34% 33% Jason Repko Herm Winningham Tim Raines Felipe Lopez 2B 4% 5% 10% 21% 60% Dennis Hocking Ron Oester Geoff Blum Zelous Wheeler 3B 1% 4% 9% 21% 64% Pedro Castellano Chris Saunders Jerry Salzano Logan Schafer CF 2% 2% 8% 26% 63% Pat Sheridan Jonathan Jay Rob Butler Sea Bass Gonzalez SS 4% 9% 19% 29% 39% Pete Suder Vinny Castilla Gary Gaetti Eric Farris 2B 2% 3% 6% 16% 73% Chris Wimmer Jackie Gutierrez Eider Torres Travis Ishikawa 1B 0% 1% 2% 12% 84% Doug Deeds Howard Prager Orsino Hill Erick Almonte 1B 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% Dusty Wathan Chris Pritchett Bill Stein Andy Gonzalez SS 2% 2% 8% 21% 67% Corey Hart Alex Prieto Gary Green Hainley Statia SS 0% 2% 8% 22% 68% Joe Morales Jeff McKnight John Tamargo Kentrail Davis RF 0% 1% 2% 5% 92% Gary Varsho Austin Krum Duane Singleton Chris Nowak 3B 1% 1% 2% 5% 92% Chris Petersen Keith Johns Jason Camilli Martin Maldonado C 2% 3% 6% 18% 72% Lance Jennings Pete Beeler Alvin Colina Craig Counsell SS 2% 2% 7% 13% 76% Mark Belanger Rene Gonzales Ski Melillo Cesar Izturis SS 0% 1% 3% 11% 85% Tommy Thevenow Edgar Caceres Alfredo Griffin Brock Kjeldgaard RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Willie Magallanes Juan Thomas Alan Cockrell Brandon Jones RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% John Urick Brian Brady Carlos Sosa Edwin Maysonet SS 0% 0% 2% 8% 90% Gary Green Travis Dawkins John Hotchkiss Mike Rivera C 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% George Mitterwald Frank Charles Joe Oliver Anderson Machado SS 0% 1% 1% 2% 96% Ray Oyler Pablo Martinez Steve Jeltz Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Zack Greinke SP 87% 8% 5% Andy Benes Javier Vazquez Roy Oswalt John Axford RP 63% 31% 6% Jim Kern Bryan Harvey Felix Rodriguez Francisco RodrigueRP 60% 35% 5% Kyle Farnsworth Curt Leskanic Mike Williams Yovani Gallardo SP 62% 33% 5% Brett Myers Jack McDowell Bob Welch Shaun Marcum SP 59% 36% 5% Scott Sanderson Chris Carpenter Vic Raschi Kameron Loe RP 32% 52% 16% Bobby Chouinard Brian Meadows Bruce Walton Zach Braddock RP 38% 38% 25% Darren Oliver Luke Walker Dennys Reyes Brandon Kintzler RP 37% 36% 28% Heath Haynes Mike Connolly Rusty Meacham Mark DiFelice RP 29% 41% 30% Donn Pall Todd Worrell Dave Pavlas Jose Veras RP 19% 49% 32% Dwayne Henry Frank LaCorte Mike Williams Tim Dillard RP 17% 54% 30% Jay Tessmer Matt Whiteside Colby Lewis Michael Fiers SP 30% 52% 18% Cliff Politte Paul Moskau Scott Bankhead Mike McClendon RP 18% 51% 31% John Doherty Adrian Devine Tim McNab Marco Estrada SP 14% 55% 30% Dave Veres Terry Leach Randy O'Neal Randy Wolf SP 24% 57% 19% Bob Knepper Bud Black Larry Gura Robert W00t3n RP 9% 45% 45% Roy (0R(0R4|\| Franklin bR4\/0 Brian \/\/1L$0|\| Dan Meadows RP 10% 44% 46% Steve Frey Dan Plesac Ray Aguilar Randy Flores RP 13% 37% 51% Lee Guetterman Eric Gunderson Kevin Hickey Chris Narveson SP 16% 55% 29% Mickey Mahler Hong-Chih Kuo Tom Bolton Sean Green RP 9% 38% 53% Kevin Gryboski Ernie Camacho Bryce Florie Eulogio de la CruzSP 2% 39% 58% Tony Fiore Craig McMurtry Brett Laxton Wily Peralta SP 5% 46% 49% Matt Albers Sean Douglass Joe Bitker Manny Parra SP 7% 34% 59% Matt Thornton Brian Snyder Steve Searcy Robert Hinton RP 2% 26% 73% Ryan Houston Marc Deschenes Courtney Duncan Amaury Rivas SP 2% 27% 71% Jeff Fulchino Dewon Brazelton Don Robinson Tyler Thornburg SP 2% 25% 72% Rocky Coppinger Everett Stull Jared Gothreaux Zack Segovia RP 1% 16% 83% Dwight Bernard Andy Mitchell Jose Segura Cody Scarpetta SP 1% 25% 74% Bill Mooneyham Ben Hendrickson Colin McLaughlin Donovan Hand RP 1% 15% 84% Dwayne Pollok Brian Allen Randy Graham Mitch Stetter RP 6% 18% 77% Jason Brosnan Joey Eischen Scott Watkins Santo Manzanillo RP 1% 14% 85% Pete Sikaras Anthony Claggett Jason Gilfillan Sam Narron SP 1% 12% 88% Odalis Perez Scott Downs Dave Gassner Kyle Heckathorn SP 0% 6% 94% Mike Thompson Rich Yett Martire Franco Josh Butler SP 0% 4% 96% Ben Fritz Lee Rodney Jim Hunter Nicholas Bucci SP 0% 2% 98% Brian Adams Greg Brummett Dana Allison Mark Rogers SP 0% 4% 96% Ivan Montane Marvin Freeman Nate Puryear Chase Wright SP 0% 0% 100% Mike Prochaska Dan Smith Dave Otto Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Prince Fielder 22% 81% 75% 3% 0% 79% 68% 0% Ryan Braun 44% 30% 66% 29% 10% 51% 37% 21% Aramis Ramirez 19% 9% 30% 1% 0% 11% 11% 0% Rickie Weeks 6% 19% 19% 0% 3% 7% 10% 2% Corey Hart 12% 6% 34% 4% 4% 21% 10% 2% Mat Gamel 7% 10% 7% 2% 0% 2% 4% 0% Norichika Aoki 33% 8% 1% 1% 38% 0% 1% 1% Taylor Green 6% 3% 4% 15% 0% 1% 1% 0% Caleb Gindl 7% 5% 2% 4% 9% 1% 1% 1% Jordan Brown 9% 0% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% George Kottaras 3% 5% 7% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Brendan Katin 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jonathan Lucroy 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Nyjer Morgan 9% 3% 0% 0% 14% 0% 0% 24% Carlos Gomez 2% 1% 1% 0% 6% 0% 0% 13% Felipe Lopez 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Zelous Wheeler 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% Logan Schafer 7% 2% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% Sea Bass Gonzalez 1% 0% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% Eric Farris 3% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 27% Travis Ishikawa 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Erick Almonte 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Andy Gonzalez 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Hainley Statia 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Kentrail Davis 0% 0% 0% 0% 42% 0% 0% 6% Chris Nowak 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Martin Maldonado 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Craig Counsell 5% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Cesar Izturis 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Brock Kjeldgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 1% Brandon Jones 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Edwin Maysonet 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mike Rivera 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Anderson Machado 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Zack Greinke 65% 93% 97% 34% 86% John Axford 55% 92% 96% 0% 88% Francisco Rodrigue 51% 89% 97% 1% 79% Yovani Gallardo 26% 85% 92% 0% 67% Shaun Marcum 24% 83% 33% 20% 64% Kameron Loe 25% 74% 16% 14% 77% Zach Braddock 28% 67% 94% 0% 73% Brandon Kintzler 37% 72% 38% 39% 68% Mark DiFelice 29% 60% 53% 26% 62% Jose Veras 14% 61% 94% 0% 59% Tim Dillard 12% 64% 10% 5% 76% Michael Fiers 8% 53% 46% 1% 48% Mike McClendon 14% 58% 2% 11% 86% Marco Estrada 11% 58% 30% 5% 61% Randy Wolf 4% 50% 4% 2% 45% Robert W00t3n 6% 39% 35% 0% 57% Dan Meadows 7% 48% 27% 1% 52% Randy Flores 13% 41% 17% 9% 64% Chris Narveson 2% 38% 17% 0% 51% Sean Green 6% 31% 12% 0% 73% Eulogio de la Cruz 2% 27% 10% 0% 71% Wily Peralta 0% 18% 11% 0% 63% Manny Parra 1% 16% 41% 0% 52% Robert Hinton 2% 17% 41% 0% 40% Amaury Rivas 0% 7% 0% 0% 52% Tyler Thornburg 0% 8% 74% 0% 11% Zack Segovia 1% 9% 1% 0% 61% Cody Scarpetta 0% 6% 8% 0% 76% Donovan Hand 1% 9% 0% 17% 44% Mitch Stetter 6% 23% 40% 5% 32% Santo Manzanillo 1% 11% 12% 0% 41% Sam Narron 0% 3% 0% 14% 43% Kyle Heckathorn 0% 1% 0% 0% 20% Josh Butler 0% 1% 0% 0% 32% Nicholas Bucci 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% Mark Rogers 0% 1% 10% 0% 29% Chase Wright 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Orioles Rockies Braves Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
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1. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: January 03, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4027781)Dan, I was thinking that Mark Difelice might get a starter rating since he pulled three AAA starts last year. He seems like a decent swingman option.
This would be one heck of an offense with Prince back but Gamel projects OK. (Likely) missing Braun for 50 games is going to hurt of course.
Greinke's a weird cat. His ERA+ the last 2 years is 100 and 102 despite very good peripherals. The only season he's had where he's hit that ERA+ projection is his great 2009. He is possibly a true "high" BABIP pitcher -- 311 for his career and he hasn't had a season under 307 since his rookie year. Still only about 8 hits a year.
Caleb Grindl? I didn't know the Amish played baseball. :-) But then why not? Wood, leather, horsehide.
I'm obviously missing some joke about Robert Wooten.
On Prince. The comps seem appropriate ones, albeit Gonzalez being a bit more svelte. :-) OK, even Boog is a bit more svelte than Prince. Boog went off a cliff but not until 35 -- less playing time than you'd like but looks like that was Weaver platooning (which would improve Boog's rate stats). Anyway, 6 years, >3000 PA, 141 OPS+, 1 MVP.
Cash aged quite well actually. His relatively short career was due to a late start not a cliff. From 28-33 or 28-35 or 28-37, he was good for 550 PA and a 134 OPS+ per year.
Using the ZiPS career projection vs. current, Prince has coming 6300 PA (wow ... put me down as no ####### way), 1450 hits, 280 HR (is that all?) Given the career OPS+ ends up 10 points lower, I assume ZiPS sees him as maintaining at this level for about 5-6 years then a slow decline. Still surprised ZiPS is so bullish on him.
Whether any of those performances would be worth 6/$150 or 8/$184 or whatever is another matter but Prince looks like a good bet to hit for the next 6 years or so (say 20-24 WAR). ZiPS seems to think he'll be David Ortiz as he ages and that probably is good enough to warrant the extra years.
Too soon to tell. Those numbers (IP, wins) are nearly the same as Kevin Brown and Curt Schilling except a substantially lower ERA+ (127 vs 128 vs 120 for Greinke). So Brown without steroid suspicion (we hope) or Schilling without the bloody sock (and overall aweseome postseason stats -- seriously, the man was 11-2, 2.23 ERA in 19 starts, slightly better than that in the WS).
Anyway, it's not clear yet how the voters feel about the new "low" career IP starters that recent/current usage might be sticking us with.* Smoltz and Mussina are in similar situations but Smoltz has the saves and Mussina has 300 more IP and 50-55 more wins than these guys. In the end, I think all three of those guys make it in via BBWAA unless the backlog nightmares come to full fruition. Anyway, the voters tend to have some issues when there are substantial shifts in pitcher usage -- one of Morris's problems in a way, even moreso for somebody like Stieb. Presumably by the time Greinke retires they'll be used to it -- who knows, that might even be a high IP total by then. Schilling is next up (in a tough year), let's see how he goes.
*It's not entirely clear that current starter usage creates low career IP totals -- fewer innings per season for sure but maybe more seasons. Somewhat heavier usage but Maddux, Clemens, Glavine and Johnson all ended up with IP totals that any 70s warhorse would have been proud of. Maybe guys like Sabathia or Buehrle will stay durable through 45 now and still push 4000 IP for a career. Or, with lower offensive levels, I think we're already starting to see IP/start creep up for the top starters.
DiFelice is also a one-pitch pitcher whose one pitch is a meatball to lefties.
You too?
Yeah, weird. This is the only thread I can seem to post in.
If this continues, this thread is really going to go meta.
You're right. I was only clicking among the Hot topics.
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