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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Friday, February 17, 20122012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh PiratesUnfortunately, Pittsburgh’s 72-90 record pretty accurately reflects where the team current stands, more than the early summer run that saw the team relevant in the NL Central standings for the first time in years. A lot of the success with the pitching staff was of the ephemeral variety. Jeff Karsten and his 3.38 ERA last season stand out - he has a weak resume and as a finesse righty with a fastball in the 80s that can’t keep the ball down enough, he walks that Josh Towers-like line between games in which he throws 6 shutout innings with 2 strikeouts and games in which he looks like a little leaguer being thrown in against the ‘27 Yankees. Well, if they were alive, of course.
None of this should be taken as a negative on current management. The Pirates are a team that’s very hard not to pull for. After 20 years of ineptitude, the fans that are left are pretty hardcore and loyal and the blogosphere resulting, with places like Bucs Dugout, Where Have You Gone Andy Van Slyke and writers like Matt Bandi (formerly of Pittsburgh Lumber Co, now PiratesProspects.com) and David Todd giving the remaining Pirates fans lots of places to go (this list isn’t even remotely exhaustive). Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington have done pretty much all they can - they didn’t come into Pittsburgh having to do a slap-on-the-plaster quickie makeover, but were given the task of turning around a franchise that looked like the sports equivalent of a city sacked in a war in the middle ages.
The Pirates do seem to realize that they need a rotation that consists more of middling finesse pitchers and have an organizational strategy centered around high-upside arms. It’s a good strategy as risk is the friend of a team like the Pirates (and an enemy of teams like the Yankees or Red Sox).
As John Sickels put it in his Top 20 list for the Pirates:
Will the Pirates seriously compete for the NL Central title in 2012? Unlikely as there’s a lot of work to be done. When it comes down to it, the long-term success of the Pirates relies on ownership having the stomach to wait for the length of time it takes for the mess to be fixed and the resilience to realize that said mess means that investments are going to take longer to pay off.
Plus, sign Andrew McCutchen long-term and do it yesterday.
Next Up: Big Ass Spreadsheet, v0.8
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Andrew McCutchen R CF 25 .274 .361 .455 156 585 102 160 35 7 19 74 78 110 28 10 120 Jose Tabata R LF 23 .278 .349 .394 133 510 87 142 30 4 7 39 52 81 26 11 102 Derrek Lee R 1B 36 .260 .328 .433 123 473 63 123 24 2 18 64 46 104 2 1 105 Alex Presley L LF 26 .275 .324 .426 142 552 84 152 27 10 12 64 38 96 19 9 102 Neil Walker B 2B 26 .268 .325 .432 156 585 79 157 38 5 16 89 48 111 9 5 104 Pedro Alvarez L 3B 25 .245 .323 .447 142 503 61 123 24 3 24 70 58 167 2 2 107 Jake Fox R 1B 29 .256 .316 .444 108 356 44 91 22 3 13 54 23 68 1 0 104 Garrett Jones L RF 31 .252 .317 .432 146 500 64 126 31 1 19 69 48 112 8 3 101 Starling Marte R CF 23 .279 .320 .421 127 506 77 141 29 8 9 56 20 108 20 12 100 Nate McLouth L CF 30 .243 .340 .391 108 379 56 92 19 2 11 37 50 70 11 3 98 Nick Evans R 1B 26 .260 .314 .419 144 511 62 133 30 3 15 54 39 116 2 1 97 Rod Barajas R C 36 .251 .291 .440 99 323 36 81 16 0 15 48 16 61 0 0 95 Casey McGehee R 3B 29 .262 .311 .398 147 527 52 138 28 1 14 68 40 84 0 2 92 Matt Hague R 1B 26 .260 .319 .377 142 549 71 143 30 2 10 63 42 82 2 3 89 Josh Harrison R 3B 24 .271 .308 .377 151 557 79 151 31 5 6 57 24 67 18 9 85 Jeff Clement L 1B 28 .241 .296 .410 87 307 39 74 20 1 10 47 22 79 1 2 90 Clint Barmes R SS 33 .249 .305 .374 129 446 50 111 24 1 10 47 31 81 6 4 84 Andy Marte R 3B 28 .239 .293 .390 106 318 36 76 17 2 9 39 23 63 1 1 84 Chase d’Arnaud R SS 25 .236 .297 .356 132 505 72 119 25 9 6 50 36 106 24 6 77 Eric Fryer R C 26 .238 .311 .354 104 362 49 86 15 3 7 34 34 87 7 2 80 Yamaico Navarro R SS 24 .249 .306 .371 107 385 49 96 20 3 7 39 30 75 9 7 83 Ramon Cabrera B C 22 .263 .314 .351 116 433 52 114 22 5 2 55 32 51 4 4 81 Robbie Grossman B RF 22 .239 .329 .348 154 598 98 143 32 3 9 56 77 154 17 12 84 Jose Morales B C 29 .257 .321 .332 64 202 19 52 10 1 1 18 19 39 0 1 78 Brandon Boggs B LF 29 .217 .313 .355 111 355 39 77 19 3 8 33 46 107 4 4 81 Andrew Lambo L RF 23 .232 .293 .362 129 456 54 106 24 1 11 54 37 117 4 3 77 Jordy Mercer R SS 25 .237 .284 .364 143 552 73 131 31 3 11 68 31 102 7 5 75 Michael McKenry R C 27 .227 .294 .355 102 352 34 80 19 1 8 34 32 94 1 2 76 Josh Rodriguez R 2B 27 .232 .301 .341 95 349 39 81 13 2 7 33 33 92 4 3 74 Tony Sanchez R C 24 .231 .316 .325 98 351 38 81 16 1 5 42 34 80 4 3 75 Gorkys Hernandez R CF 24 .243 .299 .330 138 518 66 126 23 8 2 41 36 132 18 9 71 Anderson HernandezB 2B 29 .240 .291 .318 133 462 47 111 18 3 4 36 33 76 11 7 66 Wyatt Toregas R C 29 .228 .279 .329 49 158 13 36 7 0 3 29 10 31 0 0 65 Gustavo Nunez B SS 24 .237 .272 .312 131 541 67 128 16 8 3 28 21 101 22 16 59 Shelby Ford B 1B 27 .210 .253 .319 76 257 31 54 12 2 4 26 12 69 4 2 54 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Andrew McCutchen AV/93 Jose Tabata VG/50 FR/95 AV/87 Derrek Lee AV/92 Alex Presley VG/103 FR/160 AV/88 Neil Walker AV/107 FR/69 AV/108 Pedro Alvarez FR/117 Jake Fox FR AV/124 FR/99 FR/117 PO/117 Garrett Jones AV/113 AV/80 AV/80 Starling Marte VG/214 VG/120 Nate McLouth AV/87 FR/78 AV/117 Nick Evans AV/76 FR/97 AV/95 FR/91 Rod Barajas AV Casey McGehee AV/116 PO/102 AV/105 Matt Hague FR/117 PO/131 Josh Harrison FR/130 AV/107 PO/119 FR/100 Jeff Clement FR FR/105 Clint Barmes VG/92 EX/80 Andy Marte AV/114 FR/91 Chase d’Arnaud AV/121 AV/101 FR/115 Eric Fryer AV AV/131 FR/124 Yamaico Navarro AV/112 AV/108 AV/121 AV/110 AV/107 Ramon Cabrera PO Robbie Grossman VG/118 AV/150 AV/123 Jose Morales AV FR/117 Brandon Boggs VG/106 VG/103 VG/99 Andrew Lambo FR/138 FR/140 Jordy Mercer AV/91 AV/99 AV/95 Michael McKenry AV Josh Rodriguez VG/123 AV/105 AV/113 AV/94 AV/94 Tony Sanchez FR Gorkys Hernandez VG/118 VG/115 VG/115 Anderson Hernandez AV/114 AV/118 FR/117 Wyatt Toregas AV Gustavo Nunez AV/110 AV/109 Shelby Ford AV/106 AV/122 AV/110 PO/119 AV/114 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Erik Bedard L 33 3.72 4 4 15 15 77.3 72 32 7 28 70 104 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Charlie Morton R 28 4.09 10 11 28 28 163.0 168 74 10 65 108 94 James McDonald R 27 4.27 7 8 33 22 132.7 132 63 14 61 115 90 Jeff Karstens R 29 4.72 6 9 27 22 137.3 152 72 21 32 81 82 Kyle McPherson R 24 4.82 7 11 28 25 132.7 143 71 18 40 92 80 Brad Lincoln R 27 4.90 7 11 27 26 139.7 161 76 16 38 87 79 Kevin Correia R 31 5.00 7 12 26 25 142.3 158 79 20 43 86 77 Rudy Owens L 24 5.04 6 11 23 23 119.7 139 67 15 33 71 77 Shairon Martis R 25 5.11 5 9 25 25 132.0 152 75 15 53 82 75 Justin Wilson L 24 5.17 6 12 28 22 118.3 127 68 12 73 82 75 Jo-Jo Reyes L 27 5.29 4 8 22 19 102.0 120 60 14 38 61 73 Jeff Locke L 24 5.31 6 12 29 28 142.3 165 84 17 59 95 73 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Joel Hanrahan R 30 3.17 3 2 67 0 65.3 57 23 4 22 71 122 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Jason Grilli R 35 3.61 3 3 50 0 52.3 47 21 5 22 55 107 Evan Meek R 29 3.65 2 2 48 0 49.3 45 20 4 23 43 106 Chris Resop R 29 3.81 3 3 55 0 52.0 47 22 5 23 57 101 Doug Slaten L 32 4.03 2 2 44 0 38.0 39 17 3 13 30 96 Chris Leroux R 28 4.30 4 5 52 0 69.0 75 33 5 25 50 90 Juan Cruz R 33 4.50 2 2 37 0 34.0 32 17 4 19 31 86 Ryota Igarashi R 33 4.53 2 3 56 0 57.7 57 29 6 29 50 85 Daniel McCutchen R 29 4.56 3 5 71 0 81.0 86 41 8 34 48 85 Tony Watson L 27 4.59 3 5 44 4 66.7 66 34 9 28 55 84 Danny Moskos L 26 4.65 2 4 60 0 62.0 67 32 5 28 39 83 Tim Wood R 29 4.91 1 2 50 0 51.3 57 28 5 23 29 79 Michael Dubee R 26 4.96 3 5 49 0 69.0 79 38 8 25 45 78 Jose Diaz R 28 5.10 1 2 45 0 42.3 46 24 4 25 30 76 Dan Meyer L 30 5.15 1 2 37 0 36.7 38 21 5 22 25 75 Logan Kensing R 29 5.36 1 2 38 0 43.7 50 26 6 17 30 72 Jared Hughes R 26 5.40 4 9 40 13 100.0 119 60 12 41 61 71 Tim Alderson R 23 5.43 2 4 52 1 68.0 78 41 9 32 41 71 Steven Jackson R 30 5.78 2 5 46 3 62.3 76 40 8 28 31 67 Anthony Claggett R 27 5.86 2 5 47 0 63.0 70 41 9 41 36 66 Duke Welker R 26 6.04 2 5 45 0 50.7 54 34 6 45 33 64 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Rod Barajas .240 .283 .416 1465 4638 520 1115 251 1 187 657 238 820 2 82 Derrek Lee .276 .356 .479 2337 8508 1269 2351 507 36 382 1272 1001 1929 110 117 Andrew McCutchen .262 .353 .428 2221 8331 1363 2184 468 87 247 987 1123 1468 291 111 Neil Walker .262 .318 .416 1819 6818 881 1786 420 51 176 991 558 1189 87 98 Jose Tabata .273 .349 .386 1673 6350 1076 1732 378 40 87 482 707 1022 265 100 Clint Barmes .249 .299 .384 1347 4684 543 1167 254 20 113 519 280 793 64 78 Casey McGehee .260 .310 .400 1231 4394 439 1141 227 11 122 594 336 689 1 91 Nate McLouth .243 .332 .400 1354 4537 697 1104 249 25 138 471 527 809 141 96 Garrett Jones .249 .313 .424 1021 3481 413 868 210 9 127 459 331 738 54 99 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Erik Bedard 81 71 0 3.92 248 246 1368 1301 596 137 537 1266 112 Kevin Correia 65 79 0 4.72 312 183 1197 1284 627 153 430 804 85 Jeff Karstens 51 78 0 4.65 246 176 1141 1253 590 175 289 650 85 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Andrew McCutchen CF 61% 22% 13% 4% 1% Lloyd Moseby Andy Van Slyke Ellis Burks Jose Tabata LF 5% 18% 20% 25% 32% Chad Curtis Jerome Walton Mark Carreon Derrek Lee 1B 5% 15% 18% 31% 32% Phil Nevin Richie Zisk Dave Winfield Alex Presley LF 5% 15% 18% 26% 36% Dave Martinez Luis Polonia Dwight Smith Neil Walker 2B 29% 21% 19% 18% 13% Travis Fryman Kurt Stillwell Jeff Blauser Pedro Alvarez 3B 11% 27% 27% 21% 14% Mark Reynolds Nick Esasky Mike Pagliarulo Jake Fox 1B 3% 15% 21% 37% 25% John Valle Hank Blalock Scott Bryant Garrett Jones RF 5% 15% 18% 26% 36% Richard Hidalgo Casey Blake Jermaine Dye Starling Marte CF 11% 17% 28% 25% 18% Adam Jones Roberto Kelly Rocco Baldelli Nate McLouth CF 17% 21% 30% 22% 10% Ricky Ledee Jon Nunnally Bobby Del Greco Nick Evans 1B 1% 7% 13% 35% 45% Steve Stanicek Jeff Baker Stan Royer Rod Barajas C 15% 28% 24% 23% 10% Carlton Fisk Barry Lyons Mike Macfarlane Casey McGehee 3B 1% 8% 16% 28% 47% Jason Wood Tony Zuniga Terry Jorgensen Matt Hague 1B 0% 1% 3% 21% 75% Tim Hummel Josh Pressley Mike Eylward Josh Harrison 3B 1% 4% 11% 26% 58% John Wehner Granny Hamner William Bergolla Jeff Clement 1B 0% 1% 4% 22% 73% Steve Dunn Tyler Brilinski Jay Kirkpatrick Clint Barmes SS 7% 11% 23% 30% 28% Jesus Alfaro Scott Brosius Webster Garrison Andy Marte 3B 1% 4% 8% 18% 70% Seth Johnston Tim Olson Travis Metcalf Chase d’Arnaud SS 4% 10% 25% 31% 29% Donnie Sadler Chone Figgins Brent Lillibridge Eric Fryer C 3% 10% 18% 33% 34% Gerald Laird Josh Paul Robinson Chirinos Yamaico Navarro SS 5% 8% 20% 28% 39% Josh Wilson Michael Young Greg Norton Ramon Cabrera C 1% 9% 17% 34% 39% Gregg Zaun John Ramos Doug Newstrom Robbie Grossman RF 1% 3% 4% 10% 83% Pat Tabler Mike Edwards Rich Becker Jose Morales C 1% 5% 12% 30% 53% Dick Bertell Dwight Lowry Jerry Grote Brandon Boggs LF 0% 1% 2% 5% 92% Jon Topolski Nate Murphy Jason Evans Andrew Lambo RF 0% 1% 2% 6% 90% Lee Pruitt John Santor Carlos Yedo Jordy Mercer SS 1% 4% 12% 26% 57% Ed Brinkman Nick Ortiz Clay Bellinger Michael McKenry C 1% 4% 8% 25% 62% Ryan Jorgensen Jeff Ontiveros Del Marine Josh Rodriguez 2B 2% 2% 3% 9% 84% Odie Davis Billy White Douglas Bernier Tony Sanchez C 1% 5% 9% 25% 60% Matt Treanor Trey Lunsford Danny Ardoin Gorkys Hernandez CF 0% 1% 4% 14% 81% Carlos Gomez Herm Winningham Angel Pagan Anderson Hernandez2B 0% 1% 1% 5% 93% Joey Aragon Doug Baker Gary Miller-Jones Wyatt Toregas C 1% 3% 5% 15% 76% Charlie Greene Pedro Grifol Chris Tremie Gustavo Nunez SS 1% 1% 2% 4% 93% Rob Valido Nelson Castro Juan Sosa Shelby Ford 1B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Randy Rigsby Greg Thomas Darryl Denby Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Joel Hanrahan RP 50% 42% 8% Tom Henke Curt Leskanic Jeff Nelson Jason Grilli RP 20% 50% 30% Jeff Parrett Tom Gordon Juan Berenguer Evan Meek RP 21% 51% 28% Scott Fredrickson Jason Bulger Tyler Yates Erik Bedard SP 37% 42% 21% Wilson Alvarez Denny Neagle Chuck Finley Chris Resop RP 16% 47% 36% Jason Bulger Karl Best Kyle Farnsworth Doug Slaten RP 21% 37% 42% Tommy Phelps Mike Munoz Eric Gunderson Charlie Morton SP 16% 57% 27% Pat Rapp Jim Beattie Mike Krukow James McDonald SP 9% 51% 40% Steve Mura Mac Suzuki Darryl Kile Chris Leroux RP 4% 36% 60% Gary Majewski Hipolito Pichardo Jerry Dipoto Juan Cruz RP 9% 31% 60% Roy Thomas Toby Borland Rich DeLucia Ryota Igarashi RP 3% 32% 65% Heathcliff Slocumb Tim Stoddard Doug Bochtler Daniel McCutchen RP 3% 25% 72% Casey Hoorelbeke Willie Eyre Jose Santiago Tony Watson RP 2% 26% 73% Tom Hall Ron Mahay Jim Poole Danny Moskos RP 3% 20% 77% Pete Cappadona Mike Bell Anthony Ferrari Jeff Karstens SP 3% 29% 68% Josh Towers Louis McCall Glenn Abbott Kyle McPherson SP 1% 25% 74% Mark Brownson Yusmeiro Petit Andrew Good Brad Lincoln SP 1% 25% 74% Josh Towers Clay Parker Nick Blackburn Tim Wood RP 2% 18% 80% Cary Hiles Weston Weber Jake Robbins Michael Dubee RP 1% 15% 84% Justin Huisman Danny Rueckel Jerry Spradlin Kevin Correia SP 1% 18% 80% Dennis Martinez Dave Johnson Travis Driskill Rudy Owens SP 1% 17% 82% Eddie Priest Bobby Livingston Abe Alvarez Jose Diaz RP 2% 17% 81% Keith Shepherd Ryan Baker Bart Evans Shairon Martis SP 0% 13% 86% Steve Kelly Don Robinson Mitch Talbot Dan Meyer RP 2% 12% 86% Scott Watkins Mike Kinnunen Joey Eischen Justin Wilson SP 0% 11% 88% Jordan Pals Juan Ovalles Jesus Martinez Jo-Jo Reyes SP 0% 8% 91% Justin Hampson Derek Manning Michael Bacsik Jeff Locke SP 0% 7% 92% Alex Graman Mike Gosling Norm Charlton Logan Kensing RP 1% 8% 91% Roman Colon Julio Manon Milt Hill Jared Hughes RP 0% 3% 97% Jeff Farnsworth Matt Childers Nick Masset Tim Alderson RP 0% 4% 96% Ben Cox Ben Grezlovski Rick Davis Steven Jackson RP 0% 3% 97% Barry Johnson Mike Villano Bob Scanlan Anthony Claggett RP 0% 2% 98% Agustin Montero Bill Pulsipher James Warden Duke Welker RP 0% 2% 97% Johnny Humphries Scott Schanz Bill Bene Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Andrew McCutchen 13% 30% 12% 17% 30% 8% 12% 43% Jose Tabata 17% 15% 1% 2% 3% 0% 1% 28% Derrek Lee 6% 5% 8% 0% 1% 4% 4% 0% Alex Presley 14% 2% 3% 1% 52% 1% 1% 6% Neil Walker 8% 3% 6% 20% 9% 3% 2% 1% Pedro Alvarez 1% 3% 10% 0% 2% 20% 3% 0% Jake Fox 5% 2% 9% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Garrett Jones 2% 1% 5% 3% 0% 4% 1% 2% Starling Marte 18% 1% 2% 2% 34% 0% 1% 10% Nate McLouth 1% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% Nick Evans 4% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% Rod Barajas 5% 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% Casey McGehee 5% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% Matt Hague 3% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% Josh Harrison 10% 0% 1% 4% 11% 0% 0% 8% Jeff Clement 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Clint Barmes 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Andy Marte 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chase d’Arnaud 0% 0% 0% 0% 43% 0% 0% 23% Eric Fryer 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Yamaico Navarro 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% Ramon Cabrera 6% 2% 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% Robbie Grossman 1% 4% 0% 7% 2% 0% 0% 6% Jose Morales 9% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brandon Boggs 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Andrew Lambo 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jordy Mercer 0% 0% 0% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% Michael McKenry 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Josh Rodriguez 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tony Sanchez 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gorkys Hernandez 1% 0% 0% 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% Anderson Hernandez 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% Wyatt Toregas 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gustavo Nunez 1% 0% 0% 0% 30% 0% 0% 16% Shelby Ford 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Joel Hanrahan 41% 89% 95% 7% 92% Jason Grilli 20% 62% 87% 1% 79% Evan Meek 21% 64% 39% 0% 84% Erik Bedard 11% 56% 52% 2% 77% Chris Resop 16% 55% 93% 1% 72% Doug Slaten 14% 48% 17% 8% 76% Charlie Morton 2% 39% 4% 0% 97% James McDonald 1% 28% 37% 0% 71% Chris Leroux 3% 27% 5% 2% 91% Juan Cruz 9% 30% 53% 0% 72% Ryota Igarashi 3% 22% 41% 0% 67% Daniel McCutchen 2% 19% 1% 1% 73% Tony Watson 2% 17% 25% 0% 30% Danny Moskos 2% 18% 1% 0% 86% Jeff Karstens 0% 11% 0% 51% 18% Kyle McPherson 0% 7% 2% 7% 28% Brad Lincoln 0% 6% 0% 19% 58% Tim Wood 1% 15% 1% 1% 74% Michael Dubee 0% 9% 1% 3% 65% Kevin Correia 0% 5% 1% 8% 27% Rudy Owens 0% 4% 0% 21% 35% Jose Diaz 2% 13% 6% 0% 77% Shairon Martis 0% 3% 0% 0% 55% Dan Meyer 2% 9% 6% 0% 50% Justin Wilson 0% 3% 1% 0% 67% Jo-Jo Reyes 0% 1% 0% 1% 31% Jeff Locke 0% 1% 0% 0% 47% Logan Kensing 1% 6% 4% 4% 43% Jared Hughes 0% 1% 0% 0% 50% Tim Alderson 0% 3% 0% 0% 50% Steven Jackson 0% 1% 0% 1% 40% Anthony Claggett 0% 1% 0% 0% 36% Duke Welker 0% 2% 2% 0% 64% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Padres A’s Rangers Marlins Diamondbacks Indians Nationals Blue Jays Rays Royals Reds Brewers Orioles Rockies Braves Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 17, 2012 at 01:20 PM | 41 comment(s)
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1. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 17, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4063515)Not meant as a nitpick, but this should read "of more than", right, since it changes the meaning?
Unless the park is really favorable to Burnett, it doesn't seem that he'll be that helpful for the Pirates other than to eat innings, so I hope they aren't giving the Yankees much back.
I think the little league pitcher would still do pretty good.
Babe Ruth would be 117 after all.
It's like the old Ty Cobb joke.
"Hey Mr. Cobb, what do you think you'd hit if you played today?
'Oh, about .270."
".270?!?!? But, you were a career .360 hitter?"
'Yeah, but I'm 75 F***ing years old'
That's the plan. I might release all the batting and pitching projections first and then a version with all the defense a few days later.
Thinking ahead to the release of the disk, do you have any early estimates for the disk? I know last year you released two versions and I think that benefited almost everyone. The projection leagues got a version early enough to start on time and then you released a later version with active rosters, rotations, lineups, etc. Just thought I would ask so we could plan ahead a little.
Thanks again.
I'll take the under on Bedard's IP.
I would like to do that again, but have the "sim league" version out earlier, relative to the "final" disk. I think doing that, even if it was by accident due to delays, worked out well - sim players and guys who just want to play the 2012 season early have different ideal time frames and needs.
YES! Thanks so much Dan!
He could still surprise us! He's 18 months younger than Mike Morse.
The easiest way for a league like us to setup is to release all players then add them one at a time. That is why accurate active rosters, rotations, lineups, etc. have little value.
EDIT: ...little value to us that is. I certainly understand why that would be important to others depending on what you are doing with the disk.
Thanks again.
Oh, that's where Andy Van Slyke went.
As always, your hard work is hugely appreciated.
Thanks so much for continuing to do this - I get excited every time I see a ZiPS release tweet on my phone.
Hey, yeah, I totally forgot about him.
They aren't. Diego Moreno and Exicardo Cayones, neither of whom is likely to amount to much. Plus $13 mill of salary relief, which is what the Yankees really wanted.
This is probably another "hang on, the cavalry is coming soon" kind of year, just like the last two or three have been. What's bothersome is how old everyone already is; Walker, McCutchen, and Alvarez aren't that young, and by the time the arms arrive those guys might be about ready to be gone, with no impact bats to fill in behind (except maybe Bell - we will have to see). I get Cole, truly I do - but the Pirates would have been a hell of a lot better off with Starling or Lindor.
-- MWE
You know who else has this strategy? I'll give you three hints. They also built a stockpile of high-upside arms, they play in Baltimore, and they still stink.
It worked out especially badly for then, but good ideas sometimes turn out badly. And the O's only really fully committed to rebuilding for a year, maybe two, and did very little to set up a system that could churn out players.
(Dan, here's a Coke.)
So, Pirates fans - what was the story with Moreno last year?
-3.pi
I missed this originally until someone else quoted it.
I have always sort of believed the opposite. A team like the Pirates can't afford to take a BIG risk (or, to a lesser degree, many small risks) because they don't have the resources to makeup for failure as easily as large market teams.
For example, if the Pirates were to sign Darvish (posting fee + contract) and he busts, that is a significant amount of their payroll gone and unlikely to be replaced. If the Yankees or Red Sox sign a player like Darvish and the same happens, it isn't nearly the same kind of blow to the organization.
I certainly understand that if a move like that works out for a small market team like the Pirates (signing a player like Darvish and he hits his ceiling resulting in a HUGE value as these deals are below market value), it could be the difference between being a contender and continuing the nearly 2 decade long streak of losing seasons. I was just always of the opinion that small market teams had to control their risk more than a large market team that has the resources to easily makeup for throwing $50-$80m down the drain (Igawa comes to mind). Increasing the draft or international budget is one good example of managing your risk as it is still risky but the players are relatively cheap and the payoff could far exceed the upfront costs. Typically you put most of your eggs in a few baskets and hope 1 or 2 hit. A deal like Burnett or a FA signing like Bedard are also good risks as long as you don't spread yourself too thin.
Teams like the Phillies and Rangers (more recently) are interesting because they are capitalizing on recent success by continually increasing their payroll which is exactly what you want your team to do. I have sort of thought of them as mid market teams so it will be interesting to see if their spending adversely affects them down the road.
Anyway, I found the quote interesting.
Same story as it ever was. He throws hard and has two good pitches, but he doesn't locate well within the zone, and he's not all that mature or dedicated to his craft. Might make it, might not.
I think in this case there are two different kinds of "risk".
You're talking about big contract risk. Paying a lot of money for Darvish.
I think the quote is referring more to hard-throwing, high-ceiling pitching prospects over more predictable, non-star potential arms.
Ummm, Dallas and Philadelphia are the 4th and 5th largest MSAs in the US, and the two largest with only one team.
They were always large market. You only view them as mid-market b/c they were cheap and poorly run.
Of course you ignored the main point of the post but I got around to it far too late as discussion in these threads only lasts about 48-72 hours.
Greg, you are correct, there are different types of risk. I was just curious if Dan generally feels small market teams should be taking even more risks than large market teams.
Yes. A teams likely to compete needs certainty, a team not likely to compete needs upside. That's because at the ends of the scale, the relative value of wins and losses changes. If you have a 95-win team, adding 5 wins is far less helpful than losing 5 wins hurts. If you have an 80-win team, adding 5 wins is far more helpful than losing 5 wins hurts.
I'm not talking about big money contracts here, but from a production standpoint - the certainty of a Pujols is most valuable to a good team while the upside of a Bedard is most valuable to a bad team.
Not only does Dan feel that way, so do I. Not big dollar risks, but when they have the choice between a college player and a higher-upside, lower-floor high school player for the same dollar amount, they should generally opt for the latter. That's why I argued at the time that the Pirates should have taken Hosmer instead of Alvarez, why I argued at the time that the Pirates should have drafted Heyward when they had the chance (certainly over Moskos, but even over Wieters when most Pirate fans were arguing for him), and why I believe they should have taken Lindor or Starling last year instead of Cole.
Basic draft #101:
-- You need superstars to win.
-- The cheapest superstars are the ones you develop yourself.
-- It's much harder (and more expensive) to find a superstar hitter on the open market than it is to find a superstar pitcher.
hence
-- When you have the chance to draft a hitter with superstar potential, you better take it. Worry about where he'll play later.
-- MWE
Well, there's also that Gerrit Cole fella...
All kidding aside, thanks for doing this, Dan. It is a fun way to wait for Spring Training.
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