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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Wednesday, February 15, 20122012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego PadresI can understand a team trading Mat Latos for quality prospects. I can understand picking up Carlos Quentin and trading off a surplus 1B/OF prospect for starting pitching depth. What I don't understand is doing the things described in the first two sentences in the same offseason. Part of the reason you acquire a slugger for the short-term and trade for depth is because you have Mat Latos on the team, after all. I had the same puzzlement last year as the Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez (who was scheduled to make peanuts in 2011) and then followed it up by bringing in Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett, Aaron Harang, and Brad Hawpe, moves that make sense if you have, well, Adrian Gonzalez in the middle of your lineup.The bullpen is very solid and deep and will continue to be in 2012, even without Mike Adams. The offense is not very good, but it wasn't quite as bad as last year's run rank of 15th suggests - most of the best options missed time, the bench was pretty awful, and of course, the park makes everything look superficially much worse. Conversely, the starters were much weaker than it looks at first glance - thanks to park and continued decline in NL offense, Stauffer's 3.73 ERA and Clayton Richard's 3.88 were actually very ordinary. It's still hard to get acclimated after spending all my adult years in an era of very high offense. No doubt, the Yonder Alonso projection will be very unpopular, but he's really never hit like a top 1B prospect in the minors, at least to the degree where it was consistent with his place in the power rankings. Now, those numbers look far worse than they are thanks to the park, but it's hard to see Alonso as a top-flight 1B without hitting for more power - not just HRs, but doubles, too. A first baseman with disappointing power can be an excellent player, but that's usually a result of BA, walks, and defense. ZiPS still likes Alonso long-term, but thinks that there will be an adjustment period and doesn't see Alonso as a likely star, but on the level that people saw James Loney progressing to after 2008/2009. The Padres are probably the favorite for last place, but they're not really a terrible team in the vein of the Astros, and in a weak division, a little luck should take them above the Dodgers and maybe to .500. They'll need some fortune, though. Next Up: Pittsburgh Pirates, Big Ass Spreadsheet, v0.8
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Carlos Quentin R RF 29 .254 .344 .458 123 437 62 111 27 1 20 74 41 75 3 1 123 Chase Headley B 3B 28 .270 .351 .392 144 518 64 140 29 2 10 58 62 130 13 3 108 Cameron Maybin R CF 25 .255 .324 .383 147 538 87 137 23 8 10 50 52 140 27 6 98 Yonder Alonso L LF 25 .256 .329 .401 130 446 47 114 26 3 11 56 49 93 7 4 104 Jesus Guzman R 1B 28 .266 .324 .399 138 511 63 136 29 3 11 74 41 102 7 4 102 Will Venable L RF 29 .239 .308 .396 141 457 68 109 18 6 14 58 43 128 21 4 96 Kyle Blanks R LF 25 .233 .315 .407 122 430 62 100 22 4 15 67 45 139 3 1 101 James Darnell R 3B 25 .243 .324 .390 129 490 61 119 26 2 14 66 57 110 3 2 99 Orlando Hudson B 2B 34 .249 .329 .364 123 442 65 110 19 4 8 44 52 86 11 2 95 Chris Denorfia R RF 31 .259 .320 .381 128 370 48 96 18 3 7 30 33 63 11 5 96 Jedd Gyorko R 3B 23 .251 .310 .391 129 514 75 129 28 1 14 71 43 124 7 2 95 Nick Hundley R C 28 .243 .306 .406 97 325 39 79 17 3 10 41 29 90 2 2 98 Jeremy Hermida L RF 28 .236 .317 .384 126 424 49 100 20 2 13 46 46 121 3 1 96 Vincent Belnome L 2B 24 .234 .332 .378 110 415 58 97 20 2 12 59 60 125 1 3 99 Jason Bartlett R SS 32 .258 .324 .345 136 507 68 131 24 4 4 45 47 87 17 8 88 Yasmani Grandal B C 23 .238 .325 .357 124 454 51 108 24 0 10 52 56 143 0 1 91 Mark Kotsay L RF 36 .254 .307 .355 93 256 21 65 12 1 4 28 20 30 2 1 85 Jaff Decker L LF 22 .203 .315 .367 131 507 74 103 23 3 18 80 78 176 9 6 91 John Baker L C 31 .224 .317 .339 56 165 22 37 8 1 3 13 21 44 0 0 85 Logan Forsythe R 2B 25 .224 .326 .322 126 447 64 100 20 3 6 45 62 130 12 4 83 Blake Tekotte L CF 25 .219 .302 .358 146 562 76 123 24 6 14 58 62 173 25 14 84 Everth Cabrera B SS 25 .232 .307 .315 101 375 55 87 15 5 2 28 38 91 29 10 75 Edinson Rincon R 3B 21 .228 .288 .348 128 509 61 116 27 2 10 61 41 123 1 2 77 Andy Parrino B SS 26 .207 .298 .322 128 429 58 89 19 3 8 45 51 144 5 2 74 Jason Hagerty B C 24 .211 .301 .323 126 473 59 100 25 2 8 56 54 159 2 3 75 Jonathan Galvez R 2B 21 .213 .281 .327 148 560 69 119 25 3 11 67 48 189 24 10 70 Rymer Liriano R RF 21 .221 .278 .335 153 597 69 132 27 7 9 59 44 172 41 24 71 Bobby Kielty B RF 35 .208 .281 .336 46 149 13 31 7 0 4 18 15 46 0 1 72 Brad Davis R C 29 .219 .272 .328 106 360 33 79 19 1 6 39 25 99 2 1 67 Jeudy Valdez R SS 23 .222 .265 .339 150 625 81 139 30 5 11 79 34 160 25 15 68 Micah Owings R P 29 .211 .231 .368 39 38 4 8 1 1 1 4 1 15 0 0 65 Pedro Feliz R 3B 37 .234 .246 .327 65 205 20 48 8 1 3 22 4 25 0 1 59 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Carlos Quentin PO/146 PO/146 Chase Headley AV/83 AV/91 Cameron Maybin VG/110 Yonder Alonso FR/117 PO/140 PO/90 Jesus Guzman AV/120 PO/125 AV/109 AV/118 Will Venable VG/100 PO/135 VG/100 Kyle Blanks FR/96 FR/87 PO/90 James Darnell AV/118 AV/148 AV/91 FR/115 Orlando Hudson AV/70 Chris Denorfia VG/96 FR/91 VG/101 Jedd Gyorko PO/118 AV/96 Nick Hundley VG Jeremy Hermida FR/115 AV/51 Vincent Belnome AV/108 PO/110 PO/142 Jason Bartlett AV/96 Yasmani Grandal VG Mark Kotsay AV/86 FR/141 PO/97 FR/126 Jaff Decker FR/122 PO/137 FR/128 John Baker FR Logan Forsythe FR/163 VG/118 PO/170 Blake Tekotte AV/114 FR/123 AV/117 Everth Cabrera AV/105 AV/128 Edinson Rincon FR/218 Andy Parrino AV/113 FR/109 AV/112 PO/109 FR/96 100/ Jason Hagerty AV FR/91 Jonathan Galvez FR/195 PO/156 Rymer Liriano AV/171 VG/237 Bobby Kielty FR/106 FR/106 Brad Davis AV Jeudy Valdez AV/173 AV/167 Micah Owings Pedro Feliz AV/122 AV/76 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Cory Luebke L 27 3.59 9 8 24 24 143.0 127 57 14 49 130 101 Andrew Cashner R 25 3.62 4 3 31 11 64.7 57 26 4 32 53 100 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Tim Stauffer R 30 3.79 8 8 24 24 142.3 137 60 14 46 100 96 Robert Erlin L 21 3.82 6 6 28 23 132.0 128 56 16 30 110 95 Edinson Volquez R 28 3.98 6 7 22 22 124.3 114 55 11 69 118 91 Joseph Wieland R 22 4.06 8 9 27 26 146.3 157 66 14 34 103 89 Clayton Richard L 28 4.10 8 9 24 24 138.3 138 63 12 55 95 89 Anthony Bass R 24 4.36 6 8 36 21 119.7 125 58 12 44 77 83 Dustin Moseley R 30 4.40 5 6 17 16 94.0 100 46 9 33 54 82 Micah Owings R 29 4.47 5 7 33 11 90.7 89 45 10 43 65 81 Juan Oramas L 22 4.59 6 9 24 21 102.0 103 52 14 41 87 79 Matt Palmer R 33 4.90 5 9 26 16 108.3 118 59 11 51 68 74 Simon Castro R 24 4.98 5 9 24 24 121.0 135 67 15 45 82 73 Jose De Paula L 22 5.10 5 9 24 19 95.3 107 54 10 43 57 71 Casey Kelly R 22 5.40 4 9 25 25 116.7 143 70 11 51 73 67 Jeff Suppan R 37 5.40 5 9 24 20 120.0 145 72 16 46 58 67 John Van BenschoteR 32 5.58 2 4 13 6 40.3 48 25 5 20 24 65 Josh Geer R 29 5.73 3 7 16 14 86.3 108 55 15 21 38 63 Matt Buschmann R 28 5.85 4 10 33 17 112.3 138 73 14 53 66 62 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Huston Street R 28 2.93 4 2 61 0 58.3 49 19 6 14 64 124 Joe Thatcher L 30 2.94 1 1 47 0 33.7 27 11 2 14 39 123 Ernesto Frieri R 26 2.97 3 2 64 0 66.7 50 22 5 36 82 122 Luke Gregerson R 28 3.12 4 3 69 0 66.3 57 23 5 23 64 116 Brad Brach R 26 3.29 5 4 69 0 68.3 60 25 6 21 70 110 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Josh Spence L 24 3.39 3 3 76 0 71.7 56 27 7 36 71 107 Bradley Boxberger R 24 3.47 3 3 58 0 59.7 46 23 5 34 74 105 Erik Hamren R 25 3.49 3 3 65 0 77.3 68 30 7 31 71 104 Cory Burns R 24 3.63 3 3 58 0 57.0 53 23 5 22 52 100 Miles Mikolas R 23 3.95 3 3 63 0 73.0 73 32 6 23 54 92 Nick Vincent R 25 4.13 3 4 61 0 72.0 68 33 8 30 63 88 Dale Thayer R 31 4.30 3 4 56 0 67.0 70 32 7 22 48 84 Greg Burke R 29 4.92 2 3 59 0 67.7 72 37 8 33 52 74 Alex Hinshaw L 29 5.06 1 2 49 0 48.0 45 27 4 45 48 72 Craig Italiano R 25 5.20 3 5 56 0 62.3 70 36 6 36 39 70 Eddie Kunz R 26 5.93 2 6 46 4 74.3 86 49 8 54 34 61 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Mark Kotsay .277 .332 .406 1885 6602 807 1827 363 49 130 740 561 767 102 96 Chase Headley .265 .339 .382 1863 6714 773 1781 361 27 122 728 726 1497 150 102 Orlando Hudson .267 .335 .396 1809 6581 898 1760 335 75 121 706 658 1115 120 94 Cameron Maybin .249 .319 .378 1858 6750 1071 1680 297 81 137 606 648 1664 262 94 Jason Bartlett .263 .325 .354 1639 5998 786 1579 280 50 55 530 493 921 211 87 Carlos Quentin .248 .337 .448 1563 5489 759 1363 320 12 250 904 501 883 38 112 Jeremy Hermida .244 .322 .392 1348 4449 518 1087 220 19 133 503 465 1124 36 94 Nick Hundley .243 .302 .397 1215 4088 451 992 211 47 109 488 340 982 26 94 Kyle Blanks .227 .313 .395 1228 4237 601 961 219 31 144 634 465 1292 25 97 Will Venable .242 .309 .392 1096 3519 496 850 130 45 103 428 320 913 146 95 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Edinson Volquez 76 77 0 4.29 258 254 1407 1308 670 145 782 1347 90 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Carlos Quentin RF 30% 37% 18% 11% 5% Kevin Mench Bubba Trammell Johnny Rizzo Chase Headley 3B 20% 31% 25% 17% 7% Jeff Cirillo Brook Jacoby Gil McDougald Cameron Maybin CF 22% 24% 29% 18% 7% Roberto Kelly Marquis Grissom Marlon Byrd Yonder Alonso LF 5% 19% 20% 25% 32% Paul McAnulty Rusty Greer Wally Joyner Jesus Guzman 1B 2% 11% 18% 37% 32% Pat Tabler Terry Whitfield George Scott Will Venable RF 7% 19% 20% 24% 30% Michael Tucker Brant Brown Andy Tomberlin Kyle Blanks LF 3% 15% 19% 26% 37% Chin-Feng Chen Jeff Conine Ben Johnson James Darnell 3B 6% 18% 25% 27% 25% Fritzie Connally Tom Evans Craig Worthington Orlando Hudson 2B 19% 15% 19% 24% 23% Mickey Morandini Mark McLemore Tony Phillips Chris Denorfia RF 2% 8% 12% 23% 55% Dave Martinez Barry Bonnell Hal Lee Jedd Gyorko 3B 6% 15% 22% 27% 31% Fernando Tatis Brook Jacoby Joe Crede Nick Hundley C 15% 29% 23% 21% 12% Chad Moeller Angel Pena Pat Borders Jeremy Hermida RF 2% 9% 13% 25% 51% Brian Lesher Brad Hawpe Chris Wakeland Vincent Belnome 2B 16% 15% 19% 25% 25% Tom Evans Bret Boone Jeff Manto Jason Bartlett SS 10% 18% 31% 26% 15% Adam Kennedy Bobby Adams Billy Urbanski Yasmani Grandal C 7% 21% 25% 29% 17%Jarrod Saltalamacch Al PardoMaximiliano Ramirez Mark Kotsay RF 1% 3% 5% 13% 79% Larry Biittner Mike Kingery Joe Orsulak Jaff Decker LF 4% 8% 9% 15% 64% Dernell Stenson Travis Ishikawa Ty Griffin John Baker C 2% 12% 19% 31% 35% Mike Rose Brad Gulden Dwight Lowry Logan Forsythe 2B 4% 6% 12% 26% 52% Joe Lawrence David Newhan Paul Runge Blake Tekotte CF 3% 6% 15% 25% 50% Louie Meadows Brian Simmons Dan Ortmeier Everth Cabrera SS 2% 9% 26% 32% 30% Bob Meacham Harry Chappas Gary Weiss Edinson Rincon 3B 1% 3% 6% 12% 78% Chris Bass John Hattig Mike Bell Andy Parrino SS 2% 4% 12% 26% 56% Ross Jones Steve Fanning Craig Kuzmic Jason Hagerty C 1% 4% 9% 27% 59% Mickey TettletonMaximiliano Ramirez John Gibbons Jonathan Galvez 2B 3% 2% 4% 11% 80% Bert Pena Jay Canizaro Sean Rodriguez Rymer Liriano RF 0% 1% 2% 6% 92% Randy Kutcher David Green Rusty Tillman Bobby Kielty RF 0% 1% 2% 4% 93% Dann Howitt Alan Cockrell Tony Clark Brad Davis C 1% 2% 4% 17% 76% Brandon Marsters Bill Hayes Craig Tatum Jeudy Valdez SS 3% 3% 8% 16% 71% Edwin Diaz Luis Rivera Caonabo Cosme Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Huston Street RP 48% 42% 10% Mike Schooler Rod Beck Rusty Meacham Joe Thatcher RP 50% 38% 12% Jason Christiansen George Sherrill Rod Scurry Ernesto Frieri RP 46% 44% 10% Mark Littell Bryan Harvey Buddy Hernandez Luke Gregerson RP 38% 49% 13% Brad Clontz Tim Scott Mel Rojas Brad Brach RP 34% 50% 17% Luis DeLeon Heath Bell Darren Holmes Josh Spence RP 26% 48% 27% John Rocker Darren Oliver Kent Mercker Bradley Boxberger RP 28% 46% 25% Jose Valverde Ryan Bukvich Brian Bruney Erik Hamren RP 22% 48% 30% Bert Roberge Jeff Innis Scott Strickland Cory Luebke SP 29% 56% 15% Ted Lilly Steve Avery Jeff Francis Andrew Cashner SP 18% 44% 38% Murry Dickson Richie Lewis Mel Rojas Cory Burns RP 17% 46% 37% Chad Orvella Chris Resop Erik Bennett Tim Stauffer SP 19% 56% 25% Ismael Valdez Paul Byrd Kris Benson Robert Erlin SP 20% 53% 27% Atlee Hammaker Rheal Cormier Kirk Rueter Miles Mikolas RP 8% 46% 46% Franquelis Osoria Jose Acevedo Charles Dale Edinson Volquez SP 13% 50% 37% Bobby Witt Darryl Kile Juan Eichelberger Joseph Wieland SP 10% 54% 36% Chris Holt Andy Sonnanstine Joe Blanton Clayton Richard SP 8% 45% 48% Scott Sauerbeck Dave Otto Chris Hammond Nick Vincent RP 5% 31% 65% Chris Britton Mike Adams Pat Neshek Dale Thayer RP 4% 26% 70% Jay Tessmer Brian Schmack Jack Cressend Anthony Bass SP 5% 37% 58% Kameron Loe Ramon Morel Shawn Sedlacek Dustin Moseley SP 7% 36% 58% Frank Campos Heath Totten Robert Ellis Micah Owings RP 1% 19% 80% Alan Benes Omar Olivares Anastacio Martinez Juan Oramas SP 3% 23% 73% Scott Lewis Michael Tejera Dan Meyer Matt Palmer SP 1% 14% 85% Russ Ortiz Spec Shea Alan Benes Greg Burke RP 0% 7% 93% Jamie Brewington Mark Small Mike Villano Simon Castro SP 0% 10% 90% Tony Pena Brandon Leese Bill Fulton Alex Hinshaw RP 1% 9% 91% Bill White Kevin Tolar Tim Fortugno Jose De Paula SP 0% 7% 92% Ryan Spille Rich Rundles Wes Whisler Craig Italiano RP 0% 4% 95% Mike Trombley Stan Bahnsen Kevin Joseph Casey Kelly SP 0% 3% 97% Mike Mason Matt Achilles Joe Housey Jeff Suppan SP 1% 6% 94% Dennis Springer Aaron Sele Kevin Jarvis John Van BenschoteSP 0% 5% 95% Chris Nichting Elmer Riddle Mike Saipe Josh Geer SP 0% 3% 97% Mark Johnson Paul Mitchell Glenn Abbott Matt Buschmann SP 0% 1% 99% Todd Van Poppel Elliot Brown Jason Secoda Eddie Kunz RP 0% 0% 100% Julien Tucker Jeremy Salyers Scott Suehr Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Carlos Quentin 4% 13% 14% 1% 0% 5% 14% 0% Chase Headley 11% 18% 1% 2% 0% 0% 3% 5% Cameron Maybin 3% 4% 0% 0% 32% 0% 1% 33% Yonder Alonso 3% 5% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% Jesus Guzman 8% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% Will Venable 0% 0% 1% 0% 15% 1% 0% 12% Kyle Blanks 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% James Darnell 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% Orlando Hudson 3% 7% 1% 0% 3% 0% 2% 0% Chris Denorfia 6% 3% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Jedd Gyorko 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% Nick Hundley 2% 2% 4% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% Jeremy Hermida 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Vincent Belnome 0% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Jason Bartlett 5% 4% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 6% Yasmani Grandal 1% 4% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Mark Kotsay 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Jaff Decker 0% 3% 3% 0% 3% 6% 2% 1% John Baker 2% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Logan Forsythe 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Blake Tekotte 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 1% 0% 28% Everth Cabrera 0% 1% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 38% Edinson Rincon 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% Andy Parrino 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Jason Hagerty 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Jonathan Galvez 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 2% 1% 22% Rymer Liriano 0% 0% 0% 2% 25% 1% 0% 88% Bobby Kielty 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brad Davis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jeudy Valdez 0% 0% 2% 3% 11% 2% 0% 29% Pedro Feliz 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Huston Street 48% 85% 94% 49% 62% Joe Thatcher 50% 81% 93% 4% 91% Ernesto Frieri 38% 86% 99% 0% 87% Luke Gregerson 30% 77% 73% 6% 88% Brad Brach 27% 72% 86% 13% 83% Josh Spence 20% 67% 77% 0% 74% Bradley Boxberger 22% 68% 98% 0% 81% Erik Hamren 16% 63% 57% 1% 84% Cory Luebke 6% 58% 56% 2% 78% Andrew Cashner 18% 55% 32% 1% 90% Cory Burns 12% 55% 54% 3% 79% Tim Stauffer 3% 39% 3% 4% 77% Robert Erlin 4% 41% 27% 50% 46% Miles Mikolas 5% 39% 6% 8% 83% Edinson Volquez 2% 30% 66% 0% 84% Joseph Wieland 1% 28% 3% 46% 77% Clayton Richard 1% 23% 2% 0% 81% Nick Vincent 3% 29% 43% 0% 54% Dale Thayer 3% 24% 4% 8% 65% Anthony Bass 1% 14% 0% 2% 63% Dustin Moseley 1% 18% 0% 4% 65% Micah Owings 1% 13% 4% 0% 60% Juan Oramas 0% 10% 33% 0% 28% Matt Palmer 0% 4% 3% 1% 71% Greg Burke 0% 5% 11% 0% 57% Simon Castro 0% 2% 1% 1% 44% Alex Hinshaw 0% 6% 76% 0% 77% Jose De Paula 0% 1% 0% 0% 69% Craig Italiano 0% 3% 0% 0% 76% Casey Kelly 0% 0% 0% 0% 72% Jeff Suppan 0% 2% 1% 3% 36% John Van Benschote 0% 3% 4% 1% 45% Josh Geer 0% 1% 0% 41% 14% Matt Buschmann 0% 0% 0% 0% 48% Eddie Kunz 0% 0% 0% 0% 62% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive A's Rangers Marlins Diamondbacks Indians Nationals Blue Jays Rays Royals Reds Brewers Orioles Rockies Braves Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 15, 2012 at 01:45 PM | 29 comment(s)
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1. Moe Greene Posted: February 15, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4061661)THANK YOU.
I've been saying this for months - I'm glad to finally find someone else who agrees.
Actually it looks quite reasonable to me.
That's about what I thought he would hit. Before the trade to Petco.
Technically, I would assume Hernandez would be one of the ChiSox projections, except those were done before Q went to the Padres for Hernandez and Castro.
Player request: Drew Cumberland (though that's admittedly more out of curiosity than big league readiness). .365 for Lake Elsinore at age 21 in 2010, missed all of last season. Not a lot of power, not a lot of walks contact guy.
As for Belnome, I like his range a bit more than that, but he is kind of lumpen.
Yep. Just wanted to make sure that he didn't get forgotten.
I think he played in high school against Jeff Francoeur.
The A's need to get on the phone to San Diego and trade for the improbably named "Jedd Gyorko" to be their DH, that's what it means.
I know I always confuse him with Josh Willingham, so that's probably what you're doing as well.
The numbers are the error rating: 100 is average; 50 is half as many errors while 200 is double the amount of errors
The DMB Help Manual contains a chart reflecting historical error rates, by position, in five-year intervals from 1895 to 2000. I'm assuming, without knowing, that Dan uses a chart updated through at least 2010. (I'm also supposing that DMB, when creating recent-season disks, uses numbers more current than the last year, 2000, reflected on the Help Manual chart.)
And Hermida is a former Baseball America Prospects cover boy.
EDIT: Breakdown of the effect of range and error rating, the charts start with post #14.
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