BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1

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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1

This is the first general release of final ZiPS projections 2012. All players, to the best of my knowledge, are projected for their most recent employer's organization. In the final spreadsheet, there will be a "current team" field and unemployed players will have a blank there, with the "team" field becoming "projected team" so you know to what organization the player was originally projected.

2012 ZiPS Projections for Office 2007, .xlsx format

Comma-delimited batters

Comma-delimited pitchers

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. A projection indicating how any given player would play in the majors rather than simply a blank line for many of the prospects and journeymen listed is less information and projecting how good someone is, rather than how much someone will play as a result of external decisions, is more consistent with application of the strengths of a computer. ZiPS isn't bad at projecting total *professional* playing time as there's a relationship between past playing time and future playing time, but there's a lot of specific decision-making and external events that affect this number.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the future injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

If you find bugs, errors, or have additional projection requests, this is the best place to do it. You can also e-mail me at dan@baseballprimer.com, but this is the most organized place for me to see these things.

The release of the 2012 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind Baseball is confirmed, though I do not yet know what their position is at this time on v.9 compatibility.

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 22, 2012 at 10:50 AM | 62 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 22, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4066207)

Dan,

Because Pujols signed between the Angels and Cards projections, can you share his career projection?

Thanks!

2. JJ1986 Posted: February 22, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4066247)

Dan,

Is there any way to get the park factors (for runs at least) that you use?

Thanks.

3. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 22, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4066250)

Have Pujols at 308/393/563, OPS+ 153, 3310 hits, 670 HR.

4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 22, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4066252)

Bless you good sir!

5. Walt Davis Posted: February 22, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4066298)

So, doing some math on Pujols ...

308 BA with 3310 hits gives us 10,747 AB which is 4400 more AB! I thought I was optimistic. :-) ZiPS does seem to be projecting a rather large drop in the walk rate which is a bit odd for an aging player but I'll roll with it and call that about 4800 PA. Only about a 491 SLG over the remainder. I'm getting something like 280/360/490 over the remainder and an OPS+ around 120-125.

I'll take the over I think ... unless those last 1000 PA are just horrible which is possible. Frank Thomas is pretty much the worst of the "aging greats" and he managed 3900 PA of 136 OPS+. And I was more worried about Pujols' aging in the NL where he couldn't slide to DH. If I did the math right, ZiPS is projecting Albert to finish out more like Joe Morgan, Luis Gonzalez, Chili Davis and Harold Baines than like Hank Aaron or Frank Robinson. I don't buy it.

Note, the raw numbers aren't far off Aaron and, especially, Robinson so maybe my OPS+ math is wrong. But he's at 170 after 7400 PA so to get down to 153 in his next 4800 has to be a good bit below 153. ZiPS seems to think he'll do worse than Sheffield and McCovey and even a little worse than Jeff Kent. He'll be Billy Williams or Dwight Evans in a higher offensive environment. Just can't see it.

EDIT: His 2011 career projection (St. Louis): 310/402/570, 155 OPS+, 653 HR, 3251 hits so not a major change after last year. Albert's walk rate last year was particularly bizarre, hopefully just a fluke.

6. threepointpi Posted: February 22, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4066320)

Hey Dan,

Wanted to put in a request for a LF rating for Andrew McCutchen. I know he hasn't played there recently, but he got a Vg/113 last year, and I've read (bullpenbanter.com, baseballamerica.com, etc.) that Starling Marte's defense is strong enough to push him to a corner when he gets the call (and ZiPS reckons that Marte is probably good enough this year).

Thanks for all your hard work!
3.pi

7. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 22, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4066325)

Awesome, Dan.

8. kienast Posted: February 23, 2012 at 09:22 AM (#4066879)

Will Hernan Iribarren be getting a zip rating?

9. Jim Wisinski

Posted: February 23, 2012 at 10:13 AM (#4066923)

Dan, I think ZiPS is broken. It only projects Jeff Mathis as the 36th worst hitter in baseball.

10. Barold Posted: February 23, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4066997)

Thanks a ton for all the work on ZiPS again this year Dan.

Any chance you'll have projections for some of the 1st round draft picks that have a shot at seeing some MLB action this year like Danny Hultzen and Sonny Gray?

11. NMUWildcat027 Posted: February 24, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4068018)

Could we get a projection for Justin Duchscherer. I don't think he has called it a career quite yet.

12. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: February 24, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4068303)

"Robert W00t3n"--I laughed.

13. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 25, 2012 at 10:49 PM (#4068879)

I've got one more request for you if it's not too late or inconvenient (besides the ones I e-mailed previously - sorry, just noticed your note in the text on this page about putting them here) - obviously, my feelings won't be hurt if you disregard any of them.

Mike Zuanich, 1b/of, Colorado. Not toolsy (never made a BA top 30 Rockies prospects list) and has been old for his leagues (turns 25 this season, only 30 games played above A-ball.) - however, he can hit - career OPS of .977 (albeit in decent hitters parks) and at least two other projection systems have him as a better than league average bat for 2012.

Thanks again for everything...

14. mvk112 Posted: February 27, 2012 at 06:46 AM (#4069371)

Can you please put out a projection for Andy Pettitte, Willy Aybar, and Wladamir Balentien?

15. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 27, 2012 at 07:06 AM (#4069374)

And Mike Crudale.

nailed it.

16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 27, 2012 at 12:26 PM (#4069545)

Just wanted to say again, thanks for all the hard work, Dan. Getting ZiPS is one of the only things that makes the offseason worthwhile.

A few guys, if you don't mind:

Cesar Cabral
Xavier Cedeno
Matt Clark
Terry Doyle
Bryan Price
Dae-Eun Rhee
Kyle Russell

17. jar75 Posted: February 27, 2012 at 06:09 PM (#4069920)

I've been asked to ask for projections for:

Jim Edmonds
Renyel Pinto
Travis Denker
Andy Sisco
Carlos Rosa

Thanks Dan.

18. kienast Posted: February 28, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4070377)

One other one I noticed not there: Brian Sanches RP

19. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 28, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4070381)

Sanches isn't there? He's there on my copy.

20. jfish26101 Posted: February 28, 2012 at 03:12 PM (#4070425)

Some of these guys are really pushing it. I understand the guys in limbo (Bonds a couple of years ago comes to mind) but anyone who has been retired a full season already shouldn't be on the disk.

Dan, any updates on a timeline for the actual disk?

21. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 28, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4070437)

I'm curious for a projection for Matt Murton. If its not possible or too much work, don't worry about it.

22. batpig Posted: February 29, 2012 at 07:30 PM (#4071443)

Dan - Does the BB total in the ZiPS spreadsheet include IBB, or is it separate?

i.e., to calculate total walks do you add BB+IBB or is IBB a subset of BB?

23. Guapo Posted: February 29, 2012 at 07:41 PM (#4071448)

Jim Edmonds

Here you go:

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24. indiansin08 Posted: March 01, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4072349)

Redacted

25. Dan Szymborski

Posted: March 02, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4073034)

i.e., to calculate total walks do you add BB+IBB or is IBB a subset of BB?

IBB is projected separately from BB (different model), but I just print the bottom-line BB total.

26. monkhenry Posted: March 02, 2012 at 07:09 PM (#4073082)

What's Ronny Cedeno's fielding rating(s) ?

27. Dale H. Posted: March 03, 2012 at 12:36 AM (#4073195)

Brandon Snyder is so nice that you listed him twice.

28. Carl Goetz Posted: March 03, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4073266)

Is there a later version of ZIPS that does include projections on playing time? Do the stats in the DMB disk reflect playing time adjustments?

29. Dale H. Posted: March 03, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4073474)

Lucas Luetge is a rule 5 draft pick, so he'll presumably get some innings this year.

30. batpig Posted: March 05, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4074264)

"IBB is projected separately from BB (different model), but I just print the bottom-line BB total."

You should tell Fangraphs then because they are calculating PA wrong on your ZiPS projections.

e.g. Matt Kemp is listed on Fangraphs as having a ZiPS projected 671 PA. But if you take:

586 AB +
61 BB +
4 HBP +
0 SH +
7 SF
----------
= 658

... which is exactly 13 less than 671, and whaddya know? He is projected for 13 IBB.

in other words, Fangraphs is double-counting IBB in their PA projection.

Just FYI

31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 05, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4074275)

Is there a later version of ZIPS that does include projections on playing time?

No.

32. Rays&Sox; Posted: March 05, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4074696)

If it's not too late, I'd like to see Twins Rule V pick Terry Doyle.

33. nemodomi Posted: March 09, 2012 at 06:10 PM (#4077903)

Bump post #20 part 2.

34. Dan Szymborski

Posted: March 09, 2012 at 06:15 PM (#4077909)

in other words, Fangraphs is double-counting IBB in their PA projection.

Oh-oh, I better tell Apples. Thanks for the heads-up! If I'm separating the walks completely, I'll use UBB for the unintentional ones.

35. Dan Szymborski

Posted: March 09, 2012 at 06:15 PM (#4077911)

Not sure the timeline. Definitely want to get a "Sim League" edition out there first. Just finalizing vs. L and vs. R stuff - I have the spreadsheet in a format that Luke can use now, so less problems 2nd year.

36. jfish26101 Posted: March 12, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4079039)

Thanks Dan. Just keep us updated as you hear things.

37. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 13, 2012 at 11:42 AM (#4079697)

That's great news Dan, thanks for keeping us posted.

38. nemodomi Posted: March 15, 2012 at 10:18 AM (#4081274)

Me too ... a belated thanks for the update.

39. mvk112 Posted: March 16, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4082210)

Andy Pettitte un-retired today, here's hoping he can be projected now. Thanks!

40. Dan Szymborski

Posted: March 17, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4083005)

Andy Pettitte will be included on the final disk.

41. jfish26101 Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4084291)

A little more than 2 weeks until opening day. For a league like ours to have a reasonable chance to start on time, we probably need to have the disk 5-7 days before opening day (a week to get the database built and a week for GMs to get their MPs created). Hopefully there is some progress being made on DMBs side.

Thanks again Dan.

42. Dan Szymborski

Posted: March 20, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4085229)

I hope to send Luke the final in a the next day or two (it doesn't take him long as it's mostly done automatically).

Reminder to self: Gregor Blanco.

43. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 20, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4085292)

Reminder to self: Gregor Blanco.

I tell myself this every day.

Thanks Dan.

44. jfish26101 Posted: March 20, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4085405)

Thanks Dan, really appreciate it.

45. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 20, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4085451)

Thanks Dan, really appreciate it.

Can't be said often enough.

46. nemodomi Posted: March 24, 2012 at 10:43 AM (#4088178)

Bad news, jfish et al.

From the DMB Web site:

"We hope to have the 2012 ZiPS Projection Season ready for release by Opening Day."

47. jfish26101 Posted: March 25, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4088912)

Dan, have you sent the disk to DMB?

48. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 28, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4091464)

I guess I'm curious - what does this process entail. Just taking Dan's ZIPS excel info and converting it to DMB, right? Is there more to it than that?

Is there a reason why 8-10 of us couldn't get together, divide the work, and get it done in a few weeks?

49. jfish26101 Posted: March 28, 2012 at 07:01 PM (#4091746)

This has been brought up multiple years in a row I believe.

(1) You may have some proprietary issues no? The projection disk is DMB's product. I am assuming Dan and DMB have a contract or some type of agreement to produce the disk. I am no lawyer, and I don't want to say there are copyright issues, but it seems wrong for a small group to take Dan's work and then try to mass distribute their own version of DMB's product.

(2) I am guessing that DMB has a quicker way than manually plugging every single number into the database. I don't have much desire to put in the time; I have more important things to do (i.e. family, friends, work, school...then hobbies come, of which DMB is one).

(3) Dan and DMB still do a good job. I understand a lot of customers hate DMB's management (yes hate) but I don't see any reason to try to cut them out. It is their game, it is their product [the disk], and it is their hard work [Dan and DMB].

EDIT: I think this collaboration has a chance to be beneficial for everyone involved [DMB, Dan, and customers] and am very happy they decided to continue it. I understand a lot of of people hate DMB's current management, but I think we should support what steps they have taken to keep these products around instead of marching on their lawn with torches (figuratively speaking).

50. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 29, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4092289)

You're right #49, I just get antsy the closer we get to opening day and no word on whether the season disk will be ready. I hate the waiting game!

51. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: March 29, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4092386)

Need to add Omar Vizquel, please.

52. Dan Szymborski

Posted: March 29, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4092402)

(I did catch the missing Omar Vizquel, BTW)

The reason it comes out so late is a few issues:

- I've spent a lot of time double-checking IDs and the like - we had a few too many handedness errors on the disk last year.
- The closer to the start of the season, the more I can make sure that everyone needed is on there and for as accurate a current park as possible
- The finalizing time coincides with one of my busiest times of the year, from a baseball writing standpoint, and that's what pays the bills.

I know it can be frustrating for leagues to have late release dates, but when it comes down to it, the extra time is what enables me to keep doing it.

53. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: March 29, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4092429)

I have zero complaints about the timing, but do wonder if there's anything the community can do to help (be it data validation, research, etc...)

54. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 29, 2012 at 01:52 PM (#4092432)

I appreciate your explanation Dan, and I hope you'll overlook any kvetching from me!

55. Dan Szymborski

Posted: March 29, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4092550)

I appreciate your explanation Dan, and I hope you'll overlook any kvetching from me!

That's OK, I don't mind you guys complaining a little. Especially Fish because he runs a league.

I have zero complaints about the timing, but do wonder if there's anything the community can do to help (be it data validation, research, etc...)

Not that I can think of. The most helpful thing, pointing out mistakes and new team changes that I've missed, you guys do anyway!

56. jimboandjeno Posted: April 04, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4096463)

I saw Version 1 of the projections was released on February 22...are there any updates to this that I have mnissed?

The spreadsheet is awesome...just want to make sure i am working with latest info!

Thanks,

Jim

57. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 04, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4096497)

I understand a lot of of people hate DMB's current management, but I think we should support what steps they have taken to keep these products around instead of marching on their lawn with torches (figuratively speaking).

I kind of like the sound of that torch thing, actually. Can you tell me a little more about that?

58. Dan Szymborski

Posted: April 04, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4096743)

I'm posting the final spreadsheet in the next day or two (DMB has had it for awhile). Should be very close to release.

59. jfish26101 Posted: April 04, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4096892)

Thanks for the update Dan.

60. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 04, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4096904)

WOOHOO!

61. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: April 04, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4096944)

Thanks Dan!

62. nemodomi Posted: April 10, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4103144)

Rumor has it the ball's back in Dan's court.

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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1

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