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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Wednesday, February 22, 20122012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1This is the first general release of final ZiPS projections 2012. All players, to the best of my knowledge, are projected for their most recent employer's organization. In the final spreadsheet, there will be a "current team" field and unemployed players will have a blank there, with the "team" field becoming "projected team" so you know to what organization the player was originally projected.2012 ZiPS Projections for Office 2007, .xlsx format Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. A projection indicating how any given player would play in the majors rather than simply a blank line for many of the prospects and journeymen listed is less information and projecting how good someone is, rather than how much someone will play as a result of external decisions, is more consistent with application of the strengths of a computer. ZiPS isn't bad at projecting total *professional* playing time as there's a relationship between past playing time and future playing time, but there's a lot of specific decision-making and external events that affect this number. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the future injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. If you find bugs, errors, or have additional projection requests, this is the best place to do it. You can also e-mail me at dan@baseballprimer.com, but this is the most organized place for me to see these things. The release of the 2012 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind Baseball is confirmed, though I do not yet know what their position is at this time on v.9 compatibility.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 22, 2012 at 10:50 AM | 62 comment(s)
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1. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 22, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4066207)Because Pujols signed between the Angels and Cards projections, can you share his career projection?
Thanks!
Is there any way to get the park factors (for runs at least) that you use?
Thanks.
308 BA with 3310 hits gives us 10,747 AB which is 4400 more AB! I thought I was optimistic. :-) ZiPS does seem to be projecting a rather large drop in the walk rate which is a bit odd for an aging player but I'll roll with it and call that about 4800 PA. Only about a 491 SLG over the remainder. I'm getting something like 280/360/490 over the remainder and an OPS+ around 120-125.
I'll take the over I think ... unless those last 1000 PA are just horrible which is possible. Frank Thomas is pretty much the worst of the "aging greats" and he managed 3900 PA of 136 OPS+. And I was more worried about Pujols' aging in the NL where he couldn't slide to DH. If I did the math right, ZiPS is projecting Albert to finish out more like Joe Morgan, Luis Gonzalez, Chili Davis and Harold Baines than like Hank Aaron or Frank Robinson. I don't buy it.
Note, the raw numbers aren't far off Aaron and, especially, Robinson so maybe my OPS+ math is wrong. But he's at 170 after 7400 PA so to get down to 153 in his next 4800 has to be a good bit below 153. ZiPS seems to think he'll do worse than Sheffield and McCovey and even a little worse than Jeff Kent. He'll be Billy Williams or Dwight Evans in a higher offensive environment. Just can't see it.
EDIT: His 2011 career projection (St. Louis): 310/402/570, 155 OPS+, 653 HR, 3251 hits so not a major change after last year. Albert's walk rate last year was particularly bizarre, hopefully just a fluke.
Wanted to put in a request for a LF rating for Andrew McCutchen. I know he hasn't played there recently, but he got a Vg/113 last year, and I've read (bullpenbanter.com, baseballamerica.com, etc.) that Starling Marte's defense is strong enough to push him to a corner when he gets the call (and ZiPS reckons that Marte is probably good enough this year).
Thanks for all your hard work!
3.pi
Any chance you'll have projections for some of the 1st round draft picks that have a shot at seeing some MLB action this year like Danny Hultzen and Sonny Gray?
Mike Zuanich, 1b/of, Colorado. Not toolsy (never made a BA top 30 Rockies prospects list) and has been old for his leagues (turns 25 this season, only 30 games played above A-ball.) - however, he can hit - career OPS of .977 (albeit in decent hitters parks) and at least two other projection systems have him as a better than league average bat for 2012.
Thanks again for everything...
nailed it.
A few guys, if you don't mind:
Cesar Cabral
Xavier Cedeno
Matt Clark
Terry Doyle
Bryan Price
Dae-Eun Rhee
Kyle Russell
Jim Edmonds
Renyel Pinto
Travis Denker
Andy Sisco
Carlos Rosa
Thanks Dan.
Dan, any updates on a timeline for the actual disk?
i.e., to calculate total walks do you add BB+IBB or is IBB a subset of BB?
Here you go:
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
IBB is projected separately from BB (different model), but I just print the bottom-line BB total.
You should tell Fangraphs then because they are calculating PA wrong on your ZiPS projections.
e.g. Matt Kemp is listed on Fangraphs as having a ZiPS projected 671 PA. But if you take:
586 AB +
61 BB +
4 HBP +
0 SH +
7 SF
----------
= 658
... which is exactly 13 less than 671, and whaddya know? He is projected for 13 IBB.
in other words, Fangraphs is double-counting IBB in their PA projection.
Just FYI
No.
Oh-oh, I better tell Apples. Thanks for the heads-up! If I'm separating the walks completely, I'll use UBB for the unintentional ones.
Thanks again Dan.
Reminder to self: Gregor Blanco.
I tell myself this every day.
Thanks Dan.
Can't be said often enough.
From the DMB Web site:
"We hope to have the 2012 ZiPS Projection Season ready for release by Opening Day."
Is there a reason why 8-10 of us couldn't get together, divide the work, and get it done in a few weeks?
(1) You may have some proprietary issues no? The projection disk is DMB's product. I am assuming Dan and DMB have a contract or some type of agreement to produce the disk. I am no lawyer, and I don't want to say there are copyright issues, but it seems wrong for a small group to take Dan's work and then try to mass distribute their own version of DMB's product.
(2) I am guessing that DMB has a quicker way than manually plugging every single number into the database. I don't have much desire to put in the time; I have more important things to do (i.e. family, friends, work, school...then hobbies come, of which DMB is one).
(3) Dan and DMB still do a good job. I understand a lot of customers hate DMB's management (yes hate) but I don't see any reason to try to cut them out. It is their game, it is their product [the disk], and it is their hard work [Dan and DMB].
EDIT: I think this collaboration has a chance to be beneficial for everyone involved [DMB, Dan, and customers] and am very happy they decided to continue it. I understand a lot of of people hate DMB's current management, but I think we should support what steps they have taken to keep these products around instead of marching on their lawn with torches (figuratively speaking).
The reason it comes out so late is a few issues:
- I've spent a lot of time double-checking IDs and the like - we had a few too many handedness errors on the disk last year.
- The closer to the start of the season, the more I can make sure that everyone needed is on there and for as accurate a current park as possible
- The finalizing time coincides with one of my busiest times of the year, from a baseball writing standpoint, and that's what pays the bills.
I know it can be frustrating for leagues to have late release dates, but when it comes down to it, the extra time is what enables me to keep doing it.
That's OK, I don't mind you guys complaining a little. Especially Fish because he runs a league.
I have zero complaints about the timing, but do wonder if there's anything the community can do to help (be it data validation, research, etc...)
Not that I can think of. The most helpful thing, pointing out mistakes and new team changes that I've missed, you guys do anyway!
The spreadsheet is awesome...just want to make sure i am working with latest info!
Thanks,
Jim
I kind of like the sound of that torch thing, actually. Can you tell me a little more about that?
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