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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Wednesday, January 18, 20122012 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay RaysThe Rays plan to win in 2012 the same way they usually do: pitching, defense, and catching just enough lightning in a bottle on offense around their core. The team is, at least by ZiPS, just behind the Red Sox for 3rd place, but the winter is over and given how relatively quiet the team has been with minor-league signings (outside of Luke Scott, they've made very few), they've still got some empty bottles to fill.Tampa won't have that starting rotation, forever. A team competing on a budget doesn't have the luxury of stashing too many extra arms away and a trade of one of their starters could help fill holes in the lineup. While the pitching is really good, the park and excellent defenses cause them to be a bit overrated, so when the opportunity comes to take advantage of it, the team won't say no. Next Up: Toronto Blue Jays
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Evan Longoria R 3B 26 .274 .367 .514 151 558 92 153 35 3 31 106 79 127 9 2 141 Ben Zobrist B 2B 31 .261 .355 .444 143 514 83 134 32 4 18 80 76 112 17 5 119 Matthew Joyce L RF 27 .254 .342 .453 140 461 68 117 29 3 19 71 61 119 10 4 118 Desmond Jennings R CF 25 .259 .339 .392 156 590 100 153 28 7 12 54 62 119 38 7 102 Luke Scott L LF 34 .245 .325 .447 98 331 45 81 17 1 16 47 39 82 1 1 111 B.J. Upton R CF 27 .240 .329 .411 156 570 87 137 32 4 19 73 74 169 40 14 103 Casey Kotchman L 1B 29 .272 .339 .395 138 463 45 126 23 2 10 56 41 56 2 1 103 Johnny Damon L LF 38 .256 .328 .406 134 515 72 132 29 6 12 59 51 88 14 4 102 Brandon Guyer R RF 26 .259 .310 .400 136 495 75 128 30 5 10 54 29 102 19 6 95 Manny Ramirez R DH 39 .241 .342 .363 91 270 33 65 12 0 7 37 37 78 1 1 101 Sean Rodriguez R SS 27 .230 .315 .391 133 409 58 94 21 3 13 49 38 120 11 5 94 Dan Johnson L 1B 32 .230 .324 .383 126 439 55 101 19 0 16 59 60 99 0 1 95 Russ Canzler R RF 26 .237 .308 .390 138 469 59 111 27 3 13 63 47 143 4 4 92 Sam Fuld L LF 30 .245 .322 .348 120 371 55 91 17 6 3 30 41 50 17 8 86 Stephen Vogt L C 27 .255 .291 .381 110 423 46 108 23 3 8 54 22 74 2 1 84 Juan Miranda L 1B 29 .223 .305 .369 111 355 39 79 15 2 11 43 39 104 1 1 86 Justin Ruggiano R LF 30 .232 .286 .361 108 388 47 90 18 1 10 47 27 118 15 4 78 Matt Mangini L 1B 26 .249 .293 .351 114 430 53 107 16 2 8 64 25 112 4 1 78 Robinson Chirinos R C 28 .237 .309 .358 97 338 34 80 16 2 7 38 30 78 1 3 84 Elliot Johnson B SS 28 .237 .287 .361 90 299 35 71 13 3 6 30 20 81 13 6 78 Jose Lobaton B C 27 .228 .305 .345 84 281 25 64 13 1 6 28 31 82 0 0 80 Jose Molina R C 37 .237 .296 .353 51 156 13 37 7 1 3 11 11 40 1 1 79 Hak-Ju Lee L SS 21 .248 .308 .326 151 626 91 155 21 8 4 36 50 143 30 17 76 Tim Beckham R SS 22 .239 .294 .336 156 614 86 147 27 4 8 63 46 169 19 11 74 Daniel Mayora R 3B 26 .239 .292 .336 128 485 56 116 23 3 6 44 31 110 8 5 73 Leslie Anderson L 1B 30 .250 .284 .340 121 476 42 119 19 0 8 48 18 70 2 3 72 Reid Brignac L SS 26 .239 .281 .338 126 397 42 95 17 2 6 41 22 90 5 4 71 Kyeong Kang L RF 24 .218 .297 .332 112 385 43 84 17 3 7 33 38 126 5 5 74 John Shelby R CF 26 .215 .251 .346 133 494 62 106 21 4 12 47 22 150 13 6 63 Nevin Ashley R C 27 .209 .279 .294 115 412 37 86 13 2 6 38 30 127 3 4 59 J.J. Furmaniak R 2B 32 .211 .259 .285 114 389 39 82 18 1 3 29 23 87 7 3 51 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Evan Longoria EX/74 Ben Zobrist AV/106 VG/74 AV/119 FR/112 VG/112 AV/94 VG/112 Matthew Joyce AV/84 AV/84 Desmond Jennings VG/96 VG/68 VG/88 Luke Scott AV/115 FR/83 B.J. Upton AV/85 Casey Kotchman AV/39 Johnny Damon AV/116 PO/114 Brandon Guyer VG/95 FR/85 AV/102 Manny Ramirez PO/147 Sean Rodriguez VG/109 VG/94 AV/89 AV/121 AV/109 FR/105 AV/113 Dan Johnson AV/95 FR/89 FR/91 Russ Canzler AV/140 FR/140 AV/83 FR/127 Sam Fuld EX/104 AV/79 VG/111 Stephen Vogt FR FR/112 Juan Miranda AV/113 Justin Ruggiano VG/110 FR/87 AV/97 Matt Mangini AV/150 AV/129 Robinson Chirinos AV AV/103 Elliot Johnson VG/103 AV/111 FR/100 VG/104 AV/107 Jose Lobaton AV Jose Molina VG Hak-Ju Lee VG/148 Tim Beckham AV/153 Daniel Mayora AV/122 AV/120 AV/113 Leslie Anderson AV/117 FR/99 FR/99 Reid Brignac AV/103 AV/90 Kyeong Kang AV/105 AV/144 John Shelby VG/135 AV/126 VG/135 Nevin Ashley VG J.J. Furmaniak AV/79 VG/89 AV/108 AV/109 AV/109 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ David Price L 26 3.47 15 9 32 32 200.0 175 77 20 68 184 117 Jeremy Hellickson R 25 3.60 11 8 27 26 155.0 139 62 16 58 115 112 Matt Moore L 23 3.72 10 7 29 27 145.0 126 60 14 69 150 109 James Shields R 30 3.76 15 11 31 31 215.3 207 90 26 55 184 108 Alex Cobb R 24 3.98 7 5 23 23 122.0 125 54 10 42 91 102 Jeff Niemann R 29 4.12 10 9 27 27 157.3 154 72 19 49 116 98 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Wade Davis R 26 4.41 10 10 29 29 171.3 173 84 22 63 113 92 Alexander Torres L 24 4.78 8 9 28 26 137.3 142 73 12 87 108 85 Nick Barnese R 23 5.02 6 8 23 23 113.0 125 63 11 54 64 81 Christopher ArcherR 23 5.19 7 9 26 26 128.3 136 74 14 85 89 78 Andy Sonnanstine R 29 5.23 5 7 30 13 98.0 115 57 15 30 50 77 Matt Torra R 28 5.40 6 9 25 25 150.0 188 90 23 35 63 75 Wilking Rodriguez R 22 5.84 3 6 17 15 69.3 83 45 11 31 39 69 Albert Suarez R 22 5.94 2 3 11 9 33.3 38 22 6 17 17 68 Alexander Colome R 23 6.00 6 11 26 26 123.0 132 82 20 85 77 67 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Kyle Farnsworth R 36 3.26 3 2 52 0 49.7 43 18 5 14 47 124 Joel Peralta R 36 3.39 3 2 58 0 58.3 51 22 6 18 51 119 Brandon Gomes R 27 3.62 3 2 59 0 64.7 58 26 6 28 61 112 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Josh Lueke R 27 3.79 4 3 43 0 54.7 52 23 4 19 44 107 Burke Badenhop R 29 3.88 3 3 56 0 72.0 73 31 5 26 49 104 J.P. Howell L 29 3.99 4 4 58 0 47.3 42 21 5 23 47 101 Jake McGee L 25 4.03 6 5 63 0 60.3 57 27 7 24 54 101 Juan Cruz R 33 4.19 2 2 37 0 34.3 31 16 4 19 31 97 Ricky Orta R 27 4.26 1 1 11 1 19.0 19 9 2 8 14 95 Fernando Rodney R 35 4.32 4 3 53 0 50.0 47 24 4 28 40 94 Jay Buente R 28 4.54 3 3 40 5 73.3 75 37 7 37 55 89 Joe Bateman R 32 4.55 3 4 45 0 63.3 66 32 6 30 40 89 Matt Bush R 26 4.63 3 3 26 0 35.0 34 18 4 17 33 87 Dane De La Rosa R 29 4.67 5 6 54 0 71.3 74 37 8 32 55 87 Cesar Ramos L 28 4.70 2 2 65 0 53.7 54 28 6 29 35 86 Dirk Hayhurst R 31 4.80 4 4 25 8 65.7 73 35 8 23 38 84 Jhonny Nunez R 26 5.21 4 5 40 5 67.3 73 39 10 32 48 78 Lance Cormier R 31 5.31 3 4 42 2 62.7 73 37 8 26 29 76 Aaron Laffey L 27 5.12 3 3 52 0 58.0 66 33 7 26 31 85 Jerry Gil R 29 6.00 4 7 51 0 57.0 64 38 8 42 40 73 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Johnny Damon .282 .349 .430 2826 11079 1843 3123 606 127 261 1288 1120 1458 440 103 Evan Longoria .266 .351 .476 2346 8759 1311 2327 532 41 410 1510 1108 1793 138 126 B.J. Upton .244 .327 .400 2286 8409 1228 2048 468 51 248 1010 1029 2231 476 99 Ben Zobrist .253 .337 .424 1708 6171 897 1562 354 56 196 897 797 1165 166 108 Casey Kotchman .265 .332 .385 1510 5017 496 1331 260 14 104 609 443 551 18 95 Matthew Joyce .247 .333 .435 1602 5197 718 1286 331 32 194 756 659 1193 89 111 Reid Brignac .235 .278 .335 961 2926 305 687 125 12 48 301 166 660 29 69 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ David Price 192 132 0 3.63 438 431 2686 2371 1084 294 955 2497 113 James Shields 174 158 0 4.10 434 430 2888 2919 1317 388 726 2406 99 Jeff Niemann 110 97 0 4.30 297 289 1693 1679 808 222 548 1243 95 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Evan Longoria 3B 78% 16% 4% 1% 0% Ron Santo Scott Rolen Harlond Clift Ben Zobrist 2B 72% 15% 8% 4% 1% Lou Whitaker Ray Durham Dick McAuliffe Matthew Joyce RF 23% 32% 20% 16% 10% Michael Cuddyer Leon Durham Bobby Higginson Desmond Jennings CF 38% 26% 23% 10% 3% Chad Curtis Bernie Williams Marlon Byrd Luke Scott LF 11% 24% 22% 22% 21% Paul Sorrento Johnny Grubb Henry Rodriguez B.J. Upton CF 32% 24% 24% 14% 6% Mike Cameron Adolfo Phillips Gary Redus Casey Kotchman 1B 2% 10% 17% 38% 33% Sean Casey Bruce Bochte Broderick Perkins Johnny Damon LF 7% 19% 19% 23% 32% Bill Bruton Wally Moses Bud Stewart Brandon Guyer RF 3% 12% 17% 28% 40% Juan Encarnacion Alexis Rios Ivan Calderon Manny Ramirez DH 3% 12% 16% 32% 38% Hal McRae Andres Galarraga Cliff Johnson Sean Rodriguez SS 19% 27% 30% 16% 8% Joe Redfield Chris Clapinski Chase Lambin Dan Johnson 1B 1% 5% 10% 32% 52% Kevin Barker Graham Koonce Ozzie Virgil Russ Canzler RF 1% 5% 9% 20% 66% Jeff Baker Chase Headley Jeremy Slayden Sam Fuld LF 1% 3% 6% 15% 75% Stubby Clapp Terry Bradshaw Rich Thompson Stephen Vogt C 3% 13% 22% 34% 27% A.J. Pierzynski Damian Miller Mark Salas Juan Miranda 1B 0% 2% 4% 18% 76% Ray Giannelli Ivan Cruz Jeff Bailey Justin Ruggiano LF 1% 2% 4% 12% 82% Terrell Lowery Chris Sheff Emil Brown Matt Mangini 1B 0% 1% 2% 9% 88% Rich Lane Lonnie Maclin Mike Maksudian Robinson Chirinos C 2% 10% 19% 34% 35% Chad Moeller Blake Barthol Del Rice Elliot Johnson SS 5% 7% 18% 26% 44% Ricky Adams Chris Woodward Nick Green Jose Lobaton C 2% 9% 16% 33% 39% Dusty Brown Del Rice Gilberto Reyes Jose Molina C 4% 10% 14% 27% 46% Phil Masi Mike Heath Joe Girardi Hak-Ju Lee SS 1% 5% 15% 26% 52% Alfredo Griffin Royce Clayton Juan Bell Tim Beckham SS 3% 4% 12% 24% 57% Josh Barfield Tony Perezchica George Hinshaw Daniel Mayora 3B 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% Nelson Johnson Garth Iorg Jeff Moronko Leslie Anderson 1B 0% 0% 0% 2% 97% Mike Robertson Francisco Santos Jim O'Dell Reid Brignac SS 1% 3% 8% 21% 68% Mendy LopezChristopher Johnson Tomas Perez Kyeong Kang RF 0% 1% 2% 4% 93% Mike Neill Rick Sofield Craig Cooper John Shelby CF 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% Jason Ross Barry Wesson Michael Mooney Nevin Ashley C 0% 1% 2% 5% 93% Francisco Morales Ryan Luther Scott Sandusky J.J. Furmaniak 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Chris Petersen Frank Duffy Trace Coquillette Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Kyle Farnsworth RP 47% 43% 9% Todd Worrell Lee Smith Jay Howell Joel Peralta RP 44% 43% 14% Jeff Montgomery Steve Reed Jeff Reardon David Price SP 66% 29% 5% Randy Wolf Tom Underwood Wilson Alvarez Jeremy Hellickson SP 58% 37% 5% Jason Hirsh Freddy Garcia Aaron Sele Brandon Gomes RP 32% 50% 19% Jorge Vasquez Bobby Castillo Ken Ryan Matt Moore SP 50% 43% 7% Dave Righetti Scott Kazmir Tony Saunders James Shields SP 48% 47% 5% Jon Lieber Javier Vazquez Dennis Leonard Josh Lueke RP 26% 48% 26% Mark Huismann Derek Wallace Randy St. Claire Burke Badenhop RP 21% 53% 26% Gary Majewski Mark Ross Jerry Dipoto Alex Cobb SP 39% 50% 10% Roy Oswalt Marty Bystrom George Stablein J.P. Howell RP 14% 47% 39% Armando Almanza Yorkis Perez Jack Taschner Jake McGee RP 16% 50% 35% Yorkis Perez Felix Heredia Jim Poole Jeff Niemann SP 23% 59% 18% Nelson Figueroa James Baldwin Ismael Valdez Juan Cruz RP 16% 37% 47% Roy Thomas Toby Borland Rich DeLucia Ricky Orta RP 17% 37% 46% Gordon Jones Derrick Turnbow Jose Calderon Fernando Rodney RP 16% 36% 48% Ryne Duren Rich DeLucia Ricky Bottalico Wade Davis SP 13% 53% 34% Paul Voigt William Brennan Doug Jones Jay Buente RP 3% 31% 66% Roy Smith Ryan Henderson Marcus Gwyn Joe Bateman RP 6% 39% 56% Marc Wilkins Dave Wainhouse Dale Murray Matt Bush RP 11% 32% 57% Brian Bruney Colter Bean Santiago Casilla Dane De La Rosa RP 3% 29% 69% Jim Dougherty Dwight Bernard Dave Stevens Cesar Ramos RP 4% 29% 67% Kevin Tolar Tom Doyle Jason Jimenez Alexander Torres SP 4% 41% 55% Luis Martinez Trevor Wilson Mark Langston Dirk Hayhurst RP 3% 27% 70% Danny Graves Sam Arrington Tim Pugh Nick Barnese SP 2% 27% 70% Jeff Fulchino Justin Sturge Dave Hooten Christopher ArcherSP 1% 17% 82% Kevin Ritz Larry Mitchell Sean Bergman Jhonny Nunez RP 1% 15% 84% Dave Johnson Jeff McCurry Travis Wade Andy Sonnanstine SP 1% 10% 89% Justin Miller Kris Wilson Tim McClaskey Lance Cormier RP 1% 10% 89% Mike Sullivan Bob Scanlan Brandon Puffer Matt Torra SP 1% 10% 89% Heath Totten Josh Towers Dave Borkowski Wilking Rodriguez SP 0% 7% 93% Sonny Garcia Warren Wiley Patrick Coogan Albert Suarez SP 3% 15% 83% Steve Gay Steve Schrenk Billy Traber Alexander Colome SP 0% 2% 98% Matt Peterson Mike Buddie Luther Hackman Aaron Laffey RP 2% 25% 73% Sal Urso Anthony Ferrari Mike Bell Jerry Gil RP 0% 8% 92% Marty McLeary Maximo Nunez Jake Robbins Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Evan Longoria 16% 40% 59% 10% 2% 54% 50% 1% Ben Zobrist 6% 23% 12% 4% 5% 5% 14% 9% Matthew Joyce 3% 12% 13% 2% 1% 5% 10% 3% Desmond Jennings 4% 8% 0% 2% 25% 0% 1% 77% Luke Scott 3% 5% 10% 0% 0% 1% 5% 0% B.J. Upton 0% 4% 2% 5% 4% 6% 2% 80% Casey Kotchman 12% 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Johnny Damon 5% 4% 1% 2% 12% 0% 1% 4% Brandon Guyer 4% 1% 1% 2% 6% 0% 0% 8% Manny Ramirez 3% 16% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Sean Rodriguez 0% 2% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% Dan Johnson 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Russ Canzler 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Sam Fuld 2% 2% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 4% Stephen Vogt 4% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Juan Miranda 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Justin Ruggiano 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Matt Mangini 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Robinson Chirinos 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Elliot Johnson 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Jose Lobaton 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jose Molina 5% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Hak-Ju Lee 1% 1% 0% 0% 32% 0% 0% 45% Tim Beckham 0% 0% 0% 1% 7% 1% 0% 9% Daniel Mayora 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Leslie Anderson 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Reid Brignac 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Kyeong Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% John Shelby 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% Nevin Ashley 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% J.J. Furmaniak 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Kyle Farnsworth 47% 86% 67% 22% 82% Joel Peralta 35% 81% 39% 15% 56% David Price 28% 87% 59% 3% 71% Jeremy Hellickson 19% 82% 6% 0% 67% Brandon Gomes 25% 76% 63% 0% 78% Matt Moore 16% 73% 91% 0% 72% James Shields 11% 74% 35% 26% 42% Josh Lueke 26% 67% 19% 5% 85% Burke Badenhop 16% 61% 2% 3% 93% Alex Cobb 9% 65% 6% 2% 89% J.P. Howell 14% 52% 74% 0% 53% Jake McGee 11% 58% 44% 1% 64% Jeff Niemann 3% 50% 4% 4% 38% Juan Cruz 10% 43% 50% 0% 65% Ricky Orta 17% 41% 18% 11% 58% Fernando Rodney 12% 44% 19% 0% 84% Wade Davis 1% 31% 1% 0% 38% Jay Buente 2% 28% 8% 0% 67% Joe Bateman 6% 31% 2% 1% 75% Matt Bush 11% 34% 59% 1% 54% Dane De La Rosa 2% 25% 11% 0% 60% Cesar Ramos 3% 26% 1% 0% 64% Alexander Torres 0% 15% 13% 0% 85% Dirk Hayhurst 2% 19% 2% 8% 44% Nick Barnese 0% 10% 0% 0% 72% Christopher Archer 0% 4% 2% 0% 57% Jhonny Nunez 0% 9% 3% 0% 40% Andy Sonnanstine 1% 7% 0% 9% 25% Lance Cormier 1% 9% 0% 1% 40% Matt Torra 1% 3% 0% 46% 19% Wilking Rodriguez 0% 2% 0% 0% 23% Albert Suarez 1% 8% 1% 1% 30% Alexander Colome 0% 0% 1% 0% 12% Aaron Laffey 2% 22% 0% 0% 46% Jerry Gil 0% 4% 4% 0% 37% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Royals Reds Brewers Orioles Rockies Braves Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
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1. trtaylor6886 Posted: January 18, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4039650)Not that it matters much, but Sonanstine is a Cub now. How did Lueke end up with the Rays? Did he take the Elijah Dukes Memorial Roster Spot?
I get that, of course. Moore certainly could get hurt or lose the strike zone, or both, with probability significantly greater than zero in either case. I don't see either as especially likely in his case, though.
Moore took a huge step forward last year, as difficult as that may be to believe. I was concerned a year ago that the command of the stuff wasn't coming along as well as it should and that he was very hittable when he wasn't striking guys out - but those concerns went by the board last year, when despite moving up through AA and AAA to the majors his walk rate and hit rate both dropped by nearly 1 each per nine innings. I think the only real concern now is how well he will hold up over a full season.
-- MWE
Using my own stupid calculations, I came up with about a 60% chance of it happening for him.
Now Saunders... I think Dan is just taunting Rays fans.
I didn't know there was a baseball Terry Bradshaw and he even made the majors. Any relation to the other one?
Not much to say about the projections. Not a lot of depth on the offense and they could also use a SS -- Rodriguez would actually be fine but I don't think they've shown any tendency to making him full-time there (only 49 starts there last year, 14 in Sept).
I'm not positive, but I don't think so.
Surprised to see that Damon is project to not just reach 300 hits but to surpass it by 123. If he actually does that then I think it really helps his case with the BBWAA since it would show that he didn't just hang around long enough to crawl over the milestone.
Rodriguez looked fine at SS range-wise, he can cover a lot of ground at 2B and that translated well enough to short. He was much more error-prone there, nine errors of which six were on throws. There's probably an adjustment issue there with the longer throws that would be mitigated with more playing time. UZR/150 had him at -3.8 which sounds about right, if he reduces the errors then he'd be average or a tick above in the future.
The catcher situation is obviously weak but if Lobaton and Molina were to actually hit to those OPS+s then that would be acceptable enough since they're both good glove men (and Molina might be a game-calling god or something).
The fielding lines for Zobrist and Rodriguez are just fun to look at.
That looks like a HOF line for Longoria if he reaches it unless the 3B blind spot kills him too.
Guyer's projection looks about right. He's supposed to be a very good defender so if he can figure something out and take a real step forward then he could be an acceptable starter but as things are now he lacks the secondary skills to be an above average hitter. His good minor league lines are mainly BA driven without actually being a high-contact guy.
Walt, if you look at Rodriguez's game logs for '11 you'll see that the vast majority of his starts at SS were from late July on. The Rays were definitely giving him a long look at the position and unless a trade suddenly brings in somebody else then I'm pretty sure he's the everyday SS in 2012. The only thing that might make a difference is if Brignac shows up in spring training without that useless long uppercut swing and shows that he might actually be able to hit MLB pitching again. If he shows promise then he might muscle in on the position a bit but I'm pretty sure he's going to have to earn anything more than spot starts.
Not to mention over 1800 runs, 1000 XBH and 450 SB at a excellent rate.
I guess it would depend on when he hits the ballot and how the deluge of over qualified guys of the next few years plays out.
I really don't see how you keep him out with the totality of his career. Being a good player for ever does have alot of value.
(Fangraphs has Rice at 56 WAR and Damon at only 46, fwiw, that's a pretty gigantic difference)
Edit: Damon slots in between Buck Ewing and Red Faber amongst HoFers in bbref WAR.
Somebody's not doing it right, and for my sanity I hope it's Fangraphs.
One of the mysteries of these two is how much they can disagree on offense.
Fangraphs rates Rice 57 runs better on offense than b-r but both are supposedly comparing to average. Fangraphs also gives him 30 more runs of replacement value. Finally, Fangraphs doesn't seem to be penalizing him for all the DP -- he gets -46 from b-r here. (Or DP are included in the offense in which case there's an even bigger difference between the two in the value of his offense.)
I can't see why they would differ so substantially on Rice's offensive worth.
Anyway, Damon also gets 60 more runs on offense on fangraphs than he does on b-r. Fangraphs baserunning only goes back to 2002 and they rate his baserunning value substantially lower (so 44 to 27 during the common period plus 31 Rbr not counted in fangraphs). So that pretty much wipes out the offensive difference. B-r gives Damon another 62 runs in Rroe and Rdp which apparently aren't in fangraphs (or, again, the offensive difference is much greater). There's a couple wins difference on defense but this is made up by fangraphs higher replacement value.
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