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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Wednesday, February 08, 20122012 ZiPS Projections - Texas RangersWhat's there to say about the Rangers, really? It's a deep team with a very good farm system that'll be there at the end of the season. The team's still a bit underrated defensively - I'm not sure how much the general public really comprehends just how good the non-Beltre defenders generally are. Even Mike Napoli, considered a serviceable backstop at best, made great strides defensively last season. ZiPS saw the Angels pulling even with the Rangers this season, but the Rangers landed Darvish. I had argued that the Rangers should have made a play at Fielder (before the Darvish bidding), but given the massive deal Boras squeezed out of the Tigers, the Rangers appeared to have made the safer bet.I know Barden and German are in Japan - if you tl;dr the article and email or tweet me to inform me of this fact, I will send demons to devour your eternal soul. Not quite sure how, but I think Ron Popeil makes such a product. Next Up: Oakland A's, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Mike Napoli R C 30 .272 .361 .538 118 383 59 104 22 1 26 67 50 102 5 3 132 Ian Kinsler R 2B 30 .274 .360 .474 135 536 92 147 30 4 23 71 67 69 25 5 117 Josh Hamilton L LF 31 .289 .342 .497 126 499 70 144 29 3 23 87 41 99 8 2 117 Nelson Cruz R RF 31 .269 .327 .511 126 476 63 128 27 2 28 82 41 113 14 5 116 Adrian Beltre R 3B 33 .289 .329 .488 128 502 68 145 32 1 22 80 28 67 4 1 111 Michael Young R 3B 35 .291 .336 .431 144 585 72 170 32 4 14 76 43 87 6 2 100 David Murphy L LF 30 .269 .328 .422 124 412 48 111 20 2 13 53 38 74 11 4 95 Mitch Moreland L 1B 26 .264 .329 .424 143 526 63 139 29 2 17 68 49 103 3 2 96 Elvis Andrus R SS 23 .275 .348 .350 156 612 87 168 26 4 4 50 65 83 37 13 84 Brad Hawpe L 1B 33 .235 .329 .404 95 307 37 72 17 1 11 44 42 99 1 1 91 Julio Borbon L CF 26 .276 .319 .363 125 460 61 127 16 6 4 41 25 64 28 8 79 Conor Jackson R 1B 30 .255 .330 .367 87 286 35 73 15 1 5 43 30 40 5 1 83 Yangervis Solarte B 2B 24 .279 .311 .392 103 398 46 111 23 2 6 36 16 38 4 3 83 Michael Olt R 3B 23 .230 .310 .388 95 361 37 83 16 1 13 46 41 115 3 1 82 Brandon Snyder R 1B 25 .253 .301 .391 138 514 57 130 28 2 13 75 32 122 2 2 80 Craig Gentry R CF 28 .247 .309 .334 107 356 49 88 13 3 4 31 24 68 22 3 69 Brad Nelson L 1B 29 .235 .303 .389 121 447 47 105 22 1 15 58 44 99 3 2 80 Chad S. Tracy R 1B 26 .234 .291 .397 135 534 54 125 28 1 19 78 39 124 4 1 79 Esteban German R 3B 34 .249 .316 .331 127 481 54 120 21 3 4 44 46 76 29 7 70 Greg Miclat B 2B 24 .259 .321 .313 137 505 68 131 18 3 1 30 42 114 30 6 68 Yorvit Torrealba R C 33 .263 .309 .370 92 319 29 84 17 1 5 35 21 57 2 3 77 Brian Barden R 3B 31 .258 .304 .373 85 271 29 70 14 1 5 28 16 58 1 2 77 Leonys Martin L CF 24 .270 .325 .350 109 426 44 115 19 3 3 36 30 74 21 15 78 Dusty Brown R C 30 .238 .301 .366 81 265 26 63 16 0 6 29 23 68 1 1 74 Chris Robinson R C 28 .263 .292 .342 77 266 26 70 13 1 2 31 9 44 3 1 66 Joey Butler R RF 26 .241 .295 .345 139 548 53 132 24 3 9 49 38 184 9 5 68 Matt Kata B 2B 34 .240 .280 .344 114 404 37 97 20 2 6 43 17 64 4 1 63 Engel Beltre L CF 22 .253 .292 .333 148 565 51 143 19 7 4 37 24 119 18 10 64 Tommy Mendonca L 3B 24 .231 .283 .357 146 571 51 132 26 2 14 57 32 203 1 3 67 Val Majewski L LF 31 .227 .288 .340 51 194 21 44 8 1 4 25 16 49 3 2 64 Luis Martinez R C 27 .234 .301 .314 99 338 37 79 16 1 3 35 30 84 2 1 62 Luis Hernandez B 2B 28 .243 .278 .332 123 419 41 102 16 3 5 44 19 74 6 3 59 Kyle Hudson L LF 25 .253 .316 .283 137 498 63 126 11 2 0 29 43 127 31 16 59 Guilder Rodriguez B SS 28 .243 .295 .272 117 408 40 99 8 2 0 28 30 64 12 5 50 Kevin Cash R C 34 .209 .282 .294 66 211 15 44 7 1 3 19 20 58 0 0 52 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Mike Napoli AV AV/109 Ian Kinsler VG/89 Josh Hamilton VG/115 AV/67 VG/102 Nelson Cruz AV/112 AV/100 Adrian Beltre EX/82 Michael Young FR/110 PO/94 FR/100 David Murphy AV/80 PO/93 VG/83 Mitch Moreland AV/82 AV/115 AV/106 Elvis Andrus EX/97 Brad Hawpe AV/107 PO/102 Julio Borbon VG/134 VG/110 Conor Jackson AV/96 PO/114 AV/88 AV/102 Yangervis Solarte AV/120 AV/96 PO/117 AV/107 Michael Olt AV/157 Brandon Snyder AV/144 FR/111 Craig Gentry VG/114 EX/96 VG/114 Brad Nelson AV/96 PO/117 FR/103 FR/103 Chad S. Tracy FR/116 FR/84 Esteban German FR/110 FR/153 FR/117 FR/119 PO/89 Greg Miclat AV/127 FR/136 Yorvit Torrealba AV Brian Barden FR/114 PO/100 AV/96 PO/99 FR/97 Leonys Martin VG/114 VG/123 VG/114 Dusty Brown AV Chris Robinson AV AV/112 Joey Butler FR/115 FR/134 FR/148 Matt Kata AV/99 AV/123 AV/102 FR/116 VG/112 FR/118 FR/93 Engel Beltre VG/103 VG/158 VG/103 Tommy Mendonca VG/125 Val Majewski FR/106 FR/80 AV/93 Luis Martinez AV Luis Hernandez AV/97 FR/116 FR/83 Kyle Hudson VG/98 AV/102 VG/98 Guilder Rodriguez AV/83 AV/118 FR/96 AV/102 FR/101 Kevin Cash FR FR/117 FR/118 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Neftali Feliz R 24 3.49 14 7 28 28 170.3 154 66 14 64 144 130 Yu Darvish R 25 3.62 13 7 26 26 194.0 196 78 18 46 169 125 Alexi Ogando R 28 3.72 12 7 27 26 150.0 139 62 14 50 121 122 Matt Harrison L 26 3.97 12 8 26 26 156.3 159 69 14 52 103 114 Derek Holland L 25 4.16 11 8 28 28 173.0 173 80 20 62 141 109 Colby Lewis R 32 4.17 13 9 30 30 183.7 177 85 26 57 160 109 Scott Feldman R 29 4.68 7 7 25 18 117.3 128 61 14 37 68 97 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Martin Perez L 21 4.76 7 7 27 26 134.3 155 71 13 52 100 95 Neil Ramirez R 23 5.01 6 7 29 28 116.7 125 65 15 54 91 90 Douglas Arguello L 27 5.10 5 6 26 14 83.0 90 47 8 49 53 89 Robert Ross L 23 5.16 9 9 27 26 139.7 167 80 16 49 72 88 Michael Kirkman L 25 5.17 6 6 35 15 115.0 124 66 14 63 87 88 Brandon Webb R 33 5.18 3 3 8 8 41.7 49 24 5 16 20 87 Miguel De Los SantL 23 5.42 5 6 21 18 81.3 82 49 11 63 78 83 Greg Reynolds R 26 5.64 5 7 21 16 97.3 124 61 14 27 44 80 Eric Hurley R 26 5.94 5 7 17 17 86.3 111 57 12 38 35 76 Jacob Brigham R 24 6.13 5 8 30 17 105.7 128 72 15 66 66 74 Derek Hankins R 28 6.39 5 7 28 12 88.7 111 63 17 39 45 71 Zach Jackson L 29 6.42 4 8 30 15 109.3 145 78 17 51 47 70 Brett Tomko R 39 6.90 3 6 18 12 74.3 98 57 17 33 40 66 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Mike Adams R 33 3.23 4 2 61 0 55.7 47 20 6 15 52 140 Koji Uehara R 37 3.35 2 1 45 0 43.0 36 16 6 8 49 135 Joe Nathan R 37 3.80 2 1 52 0 47.3 42 20 7 16 50 119 Yoshinori TateyamaR 36 3.86 2 1 47 0 56.0 53 24 7 15 52 117 Mark Lowe R 29 4.13 4 3 49 0 48.0 47 22 6 19 43 110 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Mike Gonzalez L 34 4.44 3 2 51 0 46.7 45 23 7 20 45 102 Tanner Scheppers R 25 4.62 2 2 39 0 48.7 51 25 5 23 38 98 Justin M. Miller R 25 4.71 5 4 44 0 57.3 57 30 6 32 44 96 Matthew West R 23 4.73 2 1 25 0 26.7 30 14 3 7 17 96 Joe Beimel L 35 4.86 2 2 52 0 37.0 41 20 5 14 22 93 Sean Green R 33 5.06 2 2 45 0 48.0 52 27 5 26 31 89 Mark Hamburger R 25 5.10 5 6 47 2 72.3 78 41 10 34 47 89 Mason Tobin R 24 5.40 0 0 4 0 5.0 5 3 1 2 3 84 Mitch Stetter L 31 5.65 1 1 40 0 28.7 33 18 5 13 22 80 Fabio Castillo R 23 5.82 3 4 43 0 51.0 60 33 6 33 31 78 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Adrian Beltre .276 .324 .464 2661 10135 1336 2799 587 32 419 1518 678 1544 132 106 Michael Young .299 .343 .440 2091 8523 1178 2545 477 65 200 1120 595 1289 104 102 Elvis Andrus .269 .348 .350 2232 8597 1256 2316 379 58 65 715 971 1200 411 84 Ian Kinsler .267 .346 .446 1788 7096 1185 1897 384 40 268 872 796 866 289 106 Josh Hamilton .289 .343 .496 1361 5340 760 1545 311 38 239 910 437 1000 75 117 Mike Napoli .261 .344 .485 1678 5427 766 1418 282 10 304 832 623 1305 63 116 Nelson Cruz .264 .321 .484 1271 4682 603 1236 256 18 246 751 385 1036 115 108 Mitch Moreland .260 .326 .416 1159 4206 495 1094 230 12 134 528 397 786 22 93 Brad Hawpe .266 .357 .460 1160 3782 498 1006 223 26 153 610 533 1051 16 107 Yorvit Torrealba .259 .312 .382 1105 3627 374 941 203 15 70 428 257 663 23 80 David Murphy .273 .330 .427 1023 3341 414 911 179 16 102 447 302 587 76 97 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Colby Lewis 122 114 0 4.75 347 310 1896 1924 1002 293 662 1566 96 Brandon Webb 98 75 0 3.52 233 232 1503 1419 588 115 507 1151 131 Scott Feldman 90 88 0 4.80 382 231 1563 1690 834 197 533 896 94 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Mike Napoli C 80% 15% 4% 1% 0% Chris Hoiles Andy Seminick Mike Macfarlane Ian Kinsler 2B 72% 14% 8% 5% 1% Billy Werber Lonny Frey Marcus Giles Josh Hamilton LF 28% 31% 17% 14% 10% Jim Northrup Ben Oglivie Willie Crawford Nelson Cruz RF 26% 30% 18% 15% 11% Richard Hidalgo Larry Parrish Jermaine Dye Adrian Beltre 3B 20% 32% 24% 15% 9% Matt Williams Mike Lowell Hank Majeski Michael Young 3B 7% 19% 25% 27% 22% Paul Molitor Jerry Mumphrey Jeff Conine David Murphy LF 2% 10% 14% 24% 49% Del Unser Stu Pederson Raul Gonzalez Mitch Moreland 1B 0% 5% 11% 33% 50% Kelly Snider J.T. Snow Danny Lewis Elvis Andrus SS 8% 18% 32% 26% 17% Pee Wee Reese Edgar Renteria Scott Fletcher Brad Hawpe 1B 1% 4% 6% 22% 67% Lee Stevens Tony Clark Mike Blowers Julio Borbon CF 3% 5% 13% 30% 49% Mike Spidale Alex Sanchez Rudy Law Conor Jackson 1B 0% 1% 4% 20% 75% Ruben Amaro Chris Pritchett Nate Espy Yangervis Solarte 2B 3% 5% 9% 22% 61% Dean DeCillis Manny Castillo Jose Vidro Michael Olt 3B 2% 6% 10% 19% 64% Mike Costanzo Jeff Manto Greg David Brandon Snyder 1B 0% 0% 1% 8% 91% Bryan LahairGuillermo Velasquez Ron Coomer Craig Gentry CF 1% 3% 10% 24% 62% Wayne Lydon Trenidad Hubbard Tom Goodwin Brad Nelson 1B 0% 1% 2% 9% 88% James Clifford Jim O'Dell Jay Gainer Chad S. Tracy 1B 0% 0% 2% 10% 87% Troy Farnsworth Tommy Everidge Luis Garcia Esteban German 3B 2% 3% 5% 12% 78% Julio Lugo Mark Belanger Tony Taylor Greg Miclat 2B 1% 2% 7% 19% 71% Pat Listach Harold Reynolds Manuel Lee Yorvit Torrealba C 1% 5% 11% 27% 56% Robert Machado Dan Wilson Charlie Berry Brian Barden 3B 1% 1% 3% 11% 84% Bill Stein Dave Berg Rich Rollins Leonys Martin CF 1% 1% 4% 12% 82% Jonathan Jay Rick Manning Leo Garcia Dusty Brown C 1% 5% 9% 24% 61% Dave Parrish Carl Nichols Bill Hayes Chris Robinson C 0% 1% 2% 12% 85% Ken Huckaby Angelo Encarnacion Omir Santos Joey Butler RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Wil Culmer George Hinshaw Vernon Thomas Matt Kata 2B 0% 1% 2% 5% 92% Ed Brinkman Geoff Blum Neifi Perez Engel Beltre CF 0% 0% 1% 5% 93% Trench Davis Keiunta Span Fredrick Tiburcio Tommy Mendonca 3B 1% 0% 1% 3% 95% Greg David Stan Royer Brook Jacoby Val Majewski LF 0% 1% 1% 2% 97% Marc Sagmoen Nate Murphy Lou List Luis Martinez C 0% 0% 2% 9% 89% Trey Lunsford Dave Parrish Ray Corbett Luis Hernandez 2B 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Carlo Colombino Gary Miller-Jones Casey Smith Kyle Hudson LF 0% 0% 0% 0% 99% LaSchelle Tarver Leo Sutherland Bruce Fields Guilder Rodriguez SS 0% 0% 1% 3% 97% Tom Runnells Jarrett Stotts Casey Smith Kevin Cash C 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% George Mitterwald Kirt Manwaring Chad Moeller Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Mike Adams RP 70% 25% 5% Trevor Hoffman Rafael Betancourt John Wetteland Koji Uehara RP 68% 27% 5% Rollie Fingers Bob Wickman Russ Springer Neftali Feliz SP 86% 8% 6% Rich Harden Carlos Zambrano Jim Maloney Yu Darvish SP 73% 17% 10% Ben Sheets Javier Vazquez Roy Oswalt Alexi Ogando SP 71% 24% 5% A.J. Burnett Tommy Greene Bartolo Colon Joe Nathan RP 33% 49% 18% Lee Smith Tom Henke Todd Worrell Yoshinori TateyamaRP 36% 49% 15% Jay Howell Rick Aguilera Dave Veres Matt Harrison SP 60% 32% 8% Randy Tomlin Mike Hampton Justin Thompson Mark Lowe RP 29% 48% 23% Darren Holmes Steve Andrade Antonio Osuna Derek Holland SP 49% 46% 5% Randy Wolf Britt Burns Noah Lowry Colby Lewis SP 44% 50% 6% Todd Stottlemyre Javier Vazquez Pedro Astacio Mike Gonzalez RP 16% 46% 38% Trever Miller Tim Byrdak Keith Comstock Tanner Scheppers RP 14% 43% 43% Francisco Cordero Kevin Barry Scott Gentile Scott Feldman SP 22% 59% 19% Ron Mathis Mike Grace Mark Clark Justin M. Miller RP 15% 46% 39% Saul Rivera Kevin Barry Bob Gibson Matthew West RP 22% 42% 36% Steve Kealey Rick Behenna Dan Giese Martin Perez SP 17% 64% 19% Mark Thurmond Danny Jackson Ted Lilly Joe Beimel RP 12% 33% 55% Lee Guetterman Eric Gunderson Kevin Hickey Neil Ramirez SP 11% 52% 37% John Maine Bob Walk A.J. Burnett Sean Green RP 9% 35% 56% Kevin Gryboski Ernie Camacho Bryce Florie Douglas Arguello SP 10% 45% 45% Bobby Sprowl Pat Gomez Matt Whisenant Mark Hamburger RP 3% 32% 65% Aaron Small Jason Flach Mike Lumley Robert Ross SP 7% 51% 43% Jeff Mutis Brad Halsey Mike Linskey Michael Kirkman SP 1% 34% 64% Ramon Romero Morris Madden Bryan Clark Brandon Webb SP 19% 30% 52% Sean Bergman Chuck Smith Eric Rasmussen Mason Tobin RP 21% 24% 54% Jose Santiago Steve Barber Greg Bauer Miguel De Los SantSP 6% 33% 61% Carlos Hernandez Al Leiter Rich Hill Seth McClung RP 2% 18% 80% Matt Albers Karl Drews Jim Owens Greg Reynolds SP 2% 25% 73% Doug Waechter Dave Eiland Keith Evans Mitch Stetter RP 4% 21% 75% Jason Brosnan Joey Eischen Scott Watkins Fabio Castillo RP 1% 15% 84% Rick Greene Felix Rodriguez Jose Rodriguez Eric Hurley SP 1% 17% 83% Preston Larrison Juan Sandoval Brian Bass Jacob Brigham SP 0% 9% 91% Chris Kinsey Travis Hughes Willis Roberts Derek Hankins SP 0% 2% 98% Wes Wilkerson Mike Walker Lou Pote Zach Jackson SP 0% 4% 96% Chris Peters Kevin Rawitzer Jeff Musselman Brett Tomko SP 1% 7% 93% Danny Darwin Mike Morgan Lew Burdette Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Mike Napoli 17% 33% 73% 0% 0% 31% 33% 0% Ian Kinsler 16% 30% 25% 3% 2% 17% 11% 24% Josh Hamilton 31% 12% 46% 3% 2% 18% 12% 2% Nelson Cruz 12% 5% 57% 1% 0% 41% 11% 5% Adrian Beltre 32% 5% 36% 4% 0% 12% 5% 0% Michael Young 34% 7% 6% 5% 3% 2% 2% 0% David Murphy 10% 4% 4% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% Mitch Moreland 6% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% Elvis Andrus 13% 15% 0% 2% 5% 0% 0% 69% Brad Hawpe 1% 6% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Julio Borbon 15% 2% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 36% Conor Jackson 6% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Yangervis Solarte 21% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Michael Olt 1% 2% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Brandon Snyder 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Craig Gentry 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 13% Brad Nelson 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Chad S. Tracy 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% Esteban German 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 50% Greg Miclat 4% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 48% Yorvit Torrealba 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brian Barden 9% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Leonys Martin 11% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 13% Dusty Brown 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chris Robinson 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Joey Butler 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Matt Kata 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Engel Beltre 2% 0% 0% 0% 24% 0% 0% 6% Tommy Mendonca 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% Val Majewski 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Luis Martinez 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Luis Hernandez 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Kyle Hudson 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 53% Guilder Rodriguez 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Kevin Cash 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Mike Adams 65% 94% 65% 24% 65% Koji Uehara 59% 92% 95% 79% 44% Neftali Feliz 55% 93% 30% 0% 87% Yu Darvish 42% 92% 37% 38% 80% Alexi Ogando 33% 88% 20% 2% 78% Joe Nathan 33% 76% 88% 6% 36% Yoshinori Tateyama 28% 80% 58% 28% 40% Matt Harrison 20% 85% 1% 3% 80% Mark Lowe 22% 71% 48% 3% 49% Derek Holland 14% 77% 19% 1% 48% Colby Lewis 12% 72% 40% 5% 21% Mike Gonzalez 16% 54% 63% 1% 33% Tanner Scheppers 10% 49% 19% 0% 55% Scott Feldman 4% 47% 1% 6% 46% Justin M. Miller 11% 54% 13% 0% 57% Matthew West 22% 54% 4% 47% 58% Martin Perez 2% 45% 5% 0% 72% Joe Beimel 12% 36% 3% 9% 40% Neil Ramirez 1% 31% 11% 0% 37% Sean Green 6% 36% 3% 0% 62% Douglas Arguello 2% 24% 2% 0% 73% Mark Hamburger 2% 23% 1% 0% 35% Robert Ross 1% 19% 0% 1% 55% Michael Kirkman 1% 23% 7% 0% 50% Brandon Webb 6% 32% 0% 6% 64% Mason Tobin 21% 46% 12% 30% 86% Miguel De Los Sant 1% 17% 66% 0% 36% Seth McClung 1% 16% 2% 0% 47% Greg Reynolds 0% 8% 0% 21% 30% Mitch Stetter 4% 18% 15% 3% 22% Fabio Castillo 0% 8% 0% 0% 55% Eric Hurley 0% 4% 0% 0% 37% Jacob Brigham 0% 1% 0% 0% 26% Derek Hankins 0% 1% 0% 0% 7% Zach Jackson 0% 1% 0% 0% 15% Brett Tomko 0% 2% 1% 3% 10% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Marlins Diamondbacks Indians Nationals Blue Jays Rays Royals Reds Brewers Orioles Rockies Braves Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 08, 2012 at 11:33 AM | 21 comment(s)
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1. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: February 08, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4056419)Um, nice rotation - their 6th starter (if we take these projections at face value) has a 109 ERA+. Decent pen too...
Mike Francesca thinks this is a prank post.
Good numbers for Yu. Not so much for Leonys Martin.
If Napoli has that kind of year, what kind of contract do you think he'll get? I can't remember the last big contract a catcher got, especially one that defensively-challenged. Piazza, I suppose.
Dan, since you've done reliever->starter projections for Feliz and Ogando, would you be able to run them for the Red Sox conversion candidates - Bard and Aceves? Thanks.
Thanks for doing that, by the way. I'm always curious about how those kinds of guys project, even if they aren't going to be in the US next year.
Supreme Court Justice Felix Frankfurter? Of course I know about him! Who can forget his seminal dissent in the case of United States vs. Pull The Other One, It's Got Bells On It.
I was going to ask for Bard too.
Their seventh and eighth starters are essentially league average.
I agree. I think Holland in particular has a good shot to consolidate his gains from last year and become a top of the rotation guy. Thrilled to see such depth in the rotation, last year was awesome, but getting that kind of health and performance out of 5 starters is an anomaly.
Not quite as sold on Murphy... he's not terrible or anything, but I see him as an opportunity for improvement. Still, this is a really nice looking team. No black holes of suck, and plenty of guys who are fun to watch/easy to root for.
Yeah, but you should see the number of games they're going to lose.
0.9 should be released sometime late next week - just have SD, PIT and cleanup/updates to do.
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