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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Saturday, January 21, 20122012 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue JaysIs there any team more happy about baseball adding a second wildcard spot than the Toronto Blue Jays? In the short-term at least (and probable long-term unless the top AL East teams start showing some serious incompetence), Toronto's prospects improve considerably if they don't have to better both the Red Sox and Yankees to make the playoffs. That obviously helps Tampa Bay and Baltimore as well, but the Jays are in that sweet spot where it's pretty darn useful - the Rays can compete for the wild card right now on merits and not need the 50/50 play-in and the O's aren't good enough for a while without a lot of things breaking their way (and about 8 wild cards).
Toronto has a decent lineup and bullpen, but they won't get much about the .500 range without better and deeper starting pitching - hopefully, Double A Next Up: Washington Nationals
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Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Jose Bautista R RF 31 .273 .408 .566 136 461 84 126 23 2 36 88 101 107 7 3 158
Brett Lawrie R 3B 22 .275 .333 .498 148 600 90 165 33 10 27 79 44 135 24 8 119
Edwin Encarnacion R 3B 29 .261 .331 .457 122 433 59 113 26 1 19 59 42 79 4 1 109
Adam Lind L 1B 28 .264 .315 .466 143 556 66 147 30 2 26 92 40 120 2 1 106
Colby Rasmus L CF 25 .250 .322 .454 152 513 86 128 28 4 23 67 56 150 8 4 105
Yunel Escobar R SS 29 .272 .351 .393 138 522 71 142 23 2 12 53 58 68 4 3 99
Kelly Johnson L 2B 30 .242 .323 .434 141 505 72 122 27 5 20 59 59 136 12 6 101
Ben Francisco R RF 30 .253 .326 .418 107 297 36 75 17 1 10 43 29 60 7 3 98
Eric Thames L LF 25 .250 .313 .428 154 603 83 151 35 6 20 78 45 159 7 3 96
Travis d'Arnaud R C 23 .253 .299 .421 118 447 55 113 26 2 15 61 25 117 4 2 90
Travis Snider L LF 24 .247 .304 .407 126 477 60 118 29 1 15 66 37 133 12 4 89
Rajai Davis R CF 31 .259 .299 .365 121 394 53 102 22 4 4 39 20 69 35 11 77
J.P. Arencibia R C 26 .229 .281 .442 131 493 56 113 27 3 24 80 33 141 0 1 90
Luis Valbuena L SS 26 .251 .313 .377 145 514 66 129 25 2 12 60 45 118 7 4 84
David Cooper L 1B 25 .251 .311 .376 149 574 60 144 37 1 11 74 50 97 0 1 83
A.J. Jimenez R C 22 .256 .293 .358 115 438 44 112 25 1 6 53 23 98 14 4 74
Anthony Gose L CF 21 .230 .300 .374 156 612 89 141 21 8 17 49 51 203 53 27 79
Mike McDade B 1B 23 .245 .283 .387 151 587 62 144 30 1 17 67 25 161 0 1 78
Mark Teahen L 3B 30 .239 .300 .364 108 335 39 80 16 1 8 37 28 86 3 2 77
Moises Sierra R RF 23 .249 .297 .389 106 406 53 101 14 2 13 57 22 85 10 12 82
Mike McCoy R SS 31 .230 .314 .308 117 370 51 85 15 1 4 29 45 74 21 6 68
Ryan Shealy R 1B 32 .210 .289 .350 69 257 28 54 12 0 8 39 25 83 0 0 71
Darin Mastroianni R CF 26 .234 .302 .299 141 565 78 132 21 5 2 35 53 123 34 10 62
Adeiny HechavarriaR SS 23 .241 .269 .345 145 582 65 140 25 6 8 51 23 106 15 11 63
Craig Stansberry R 3B 30 .217 .283 .316 103 332 39 72 14 2 5 31 29 86 7 4 61
Chris Woodward R SS 36 .222 .269 .320 106 387 42 86 18 1 6 35 24 81 3 1 57
Callix Crabbe B 2B 29 .220 .287 .311 91 305 36 67 12 2 4 28 27 57 9 7 61
Jeff Mathis R C 29 .209 .262 .321 88 249 25 52 11 1 5 30 17 77 2 2 55
Brian Jeroloman L C 27 .192 .285 .264 96 333 27 64 12 0 4 27 42 128 1 1 49
Brian Bocock R SS 27 .200 .266 .265 116 385 37 77 11 1 4 31 35 116 7 6 43
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Jose Bautista AV/117 AV/89 FR/99 PO/113 FR/99
Brett Lawrie AV/166 VG/106
Edwin Encarnacion AV/122 FR/125
Adam Lind AV/66 PO/89
Colby Rasmus VG/111 AV/133 VG/118
Yunel Escobar AV/85
Kelly Johnson AV/91
Ben Francisco AV/90 PO/84 FR/95
Eric Thames FR/123 FR/110
Travis d'Arnaud AV
Travis Snider AV/192 PO/136 FR/177
Rajai Davis AV/98 AV/97 VG/98
J.P. Arencibia FR
Luis Valbuena FR/75 AV/103 FR/106 AV/95
David Cooper FR/120 FR/137 PO/115
A.J. Jimenez VG FR/124
Anthony Gose VG/105 VG/124 VG/117
Mike McDade VG/143
Mark Teahen AV/93 PO/115 PO/89 FR/121 PO/99
Moises Sierra VG/155
Mike McCoy AV/99 AV/93 AV/103 AV/110 FR/109 AV/94
Ryan Shealy FR/78
Darin Mastroianni VG/108 AV/95 VG/115
Adeiny Hechavarria AV/104
Craig Stansberry AV/111 AV/93 VG/117 AV/108
Chris Woodward FR/107 AV/112 AV/125 FR/105
Callix Crabbe AV/118 AV/106 FR/110 AV/95 FR/117 AV/117
Jeff Mathis AV
Brian Jeroloman AV
Brian Bocock VG/106
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Ricky Romero L 27 3.72 15 9 31 31 210.3 190 87 23 79 171 117
Brandon Morrow R 27 4.12 11 9 32 29 166.0 154 76 18 71 176 106
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Henderson Alvarez R 22 4.65 9 8 27 25 155.0 175 80 21 31 89 94
Brett Cecil L 25 5.00 10 11 29 29 174.7 189 97 28 59 122 87
Dustin McGowan R 30 5.00 4 4 18 17 72.0 77 40 10 34 54 87
Jesse Litsch R 27 5.18 4 5 22 13 80.0 89 46 12 27 55 84
Joel Carreno R 25 5.52 6 8 28 22 117.3 132 72 17 63 89 79
Willie Collazo L 32 5.53 2 3 17 8 55.3 67 34 9 17 27 79
Luis Perez L 27 5.71 6 9 34 19 121.3 139 77 16 72 78 76
Kyle Drabek R 24 5.80 8 12 30 27 147.3 170 95 21 87 88 75
B.J. LaMura R 31 6.16 4 7 34 12 80.3 90 55 12 61 51 71
Mike MacDonald R 30 6.28 5 9 27 20 116.0 162 81 15 40 44 69
Scott Richmond R 32 6.30 5 8 20 16 90.0 108 63 19 41 61 69
Yohan Pino R 28 6.31 5 9 35 15 107.0 134 75 23 34 70 69
Chad Beck R 27 6.52 5 9 33 18 109.0 146 79 17 51 55 67
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Buzz Oliver L 41 3.33 4 2 53 0 46.0 42 17 4 12 44 131
Sergio Santos R 28 3.34 5 2 60 0 59.3 49 22 6 25 72 131
Casey Janssen R 30 3.48 4 2 57 0 62.0 57 24 6 18 58 125
Jason Frasor R 34 3.88 4 3 60 0 55.7 52 24 6 22 53 112
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Shawn Camp R 36 4.22 4 3 59 0 64.0 68 30 6 21 38 103
Carlos Villanueva R 28 4.55 4 4 47 8 89.0 92 45 12 31 68 96
Trystan Magnuson R 27 4.69 3 3 43 0 63.3 68 33 7 26 42 93
Danny Farquhar R 25 4.95 4 4 56 0 63.7 65 35 7 40 50 88
Alan Farina R 25 5.12 2 2 31 0 31.7 32 18 4 20 26 85
Aaron Laffey L 27 5.12 3 3 52 0 58.0 66 33 7 26 31 85
Evan Crawford L 25 5.23 3 4 49 0 53.3 60 31 6 28 36 83
Jesse Chavez R 28 5.37 3 4 55 0 63.7 72 38 11 21 45 81
Brian Tallet L 34 5.57 3 4 27 7 63.0 69 39 11 28 47 78
Clint Everts R 27 5.66 2 2 46 1 62.0 69 39 8 40 45 77
Vince Perkins R 30 5.91 1 1 15 0 21.3 24 14 3 17 13 74
Jerry Gil R 29 6.00 4 7 51 0 57.0 64 38 8 42 40 73
Rommie Lewis L 29 6.02 3 4 44 2 64.3 77 43 10 33 43 73
Ronald Uviedo R 25 6.10 3 5 41 6 76.7 86 52 16 39 60 71
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Yunel Escobar .273 .346 .387 1794 6814 907 1863 297 21 145 689 684 777 49 96
Jose Bautista .256 .367 .486 2010 6789 1036 1736 340 34 385 1054 1128 1411 88 126
Colby Rasmus .243 .317 .432 2029 6848 1104 1663 363 46 279 845 745 1829 80 99
Edwin Encarnacion .257 .327 .438 1694 5969 784 1534 343 10 240 798 556 1032 59 101
Kelly Johnson .247 .326 .424 1721 6170 881 1527 334 64 210 707 691 1447 121 98
Adam Lind .261 .311 .450 1510 5787 677 1513 315 17 248 897 402 1158 13 101
Rajai Davis .266 .309 .369 927 2816 388 748 158 31 24 269 156 468 267 81
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Ricky Romero 180 133 0 3.96 406 405 2680 2495 1179 308 1079 2166 110
Brandon Morrow 134 116 16 4.28 495 343 2091 1914 995 245 956 2258 101
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Jose Bautista RF 85% 10% 3% 2% 1% Ralph Kiner George Selkirk Jimmy Wynn
Brett Lawrie 3B 41% 29% 17% 10% 4% Chipper Jones Adrian Beltre Carney Lansford
Edwin Encarnacion 3B 17% 29% 26% 18% 10% Steve Buechele Jeff Manto Scott Brosius
Adam Lind 1B 4% 15% 19% 35% 27% Matt LeCroy Larry Sheets Rod Brewer
Colby Rasmus CF 20% 23% 30% 19% 7% Bob Skube Jessie Reid Jim Edmonds
Yunel Escobar SS 22% 23% 29% 19% 7% Don Wert Bob Aspromonte Scott Fletcher
Kelly Johnson 2B 25% 19% 19% 20% 16% Justin Leone Kelly Heath Jose Valentin
Ben Francisco RF 3% 11% 15% 25% 46% Prentice Redman Aaron Guiel Bruce Aven
Eric Thames LF 2% 10% 14% 25% 49% Ted Wood LaVel Freeman John Bowker
Travis d'Arnaud C 8% 22% 24% 28% 18% Bill Bathe Randy Knorr Brook Fordyce
Travis Snider LF 2% 7% 9% 18% 64% John Vander Wal Rick Sofield Rob Lukachyk
Rajai Davis CF 4% 6% 18% 31% 41% Chris Singleton Greg Tubbs Rufino Linares
J.P. Arencibia C 7% 23% 25% 27% 18% Bobby Hughes John BuckGiuseppe Chiaramonte
Luis Valbuena SS 5% 11% 26% 29% 29% Dale Berra Ernest Riles Chris Gomez
David Cooper 1B 0% 0% 2% 13% 85% Terry Jorgensen Brian Traxler Rod Brewer
A.J. Jimenez C 2% 7% 12% 29% 50% Jorge Pedre Rey Palacios Jeff Mathis
Anthony Gose CF 8% 20% 21% 19% 32% Daryl Boston Herm Winningham Dave Krynzel
Mike McDade 1B 0% 1% 2% 9% 89% Lance Belen Drew DensonGuillermo Velasquez
Mark Teahen 3B 0% 2% 5% 14% 80% Shanie Dugas Ray Giannelli Chris Saunders
Moises Sierra RF 3% 6% 10% 21% 60% Brandon Berger Dan Wagner Chad Mottola
Mike McCoy SS 4% 4% 12% 26% 54% Rabbit Warstler Mark Belanger Tim Barker
Ryan Shealy 1B 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% Jody Davis Dustan Mohr Steve Yeager
Darin Mastroianni CF 0% 0% 2% 11% 87% Tom Goodwin Wayne Lydon Sebastien Boucher
Adeiny HechavarriaSS 2% 2% 4% 9% 84% Gregorio Petit Buck Coats Juan Gonzalez
Craig Stansberry 3B 0% 0% 1% 2% 96% Trace Coquillette Jose Santos Dave Matranga
Chris Woodward SS 1% 1% 2% 6% 90% Shane Halter Rico Rossy Mark Belanger
Callix Crabbe 2B 1% 0% 1% 2% 97% Tim Cullen Gary Miller-Jones Doug Baker
Jeff Mathis C 1% 1% 1% 4% 93% Chris Curry Paul Chiaffredo Rebecca Black
Brian Jeroloman C 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Adam Donachie Jean Boscan Joe Hietpas
Brian Bocock SS 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Scott Powers Derek Mitchell Les Dennis
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Buzz Oliver RP 60% 34% 5% Larry Andersen John Franco Doug Jones
Sergio Santos RP 64% 31% 5% Bryan Harvey Jeff Little Jose Valverde
Casey Janssen RP 59% 35% 6% Jason Isringhausen J.J. Putz Tim Scott
Ricky Romero SP 68% 27% 5% Barry Zito Wilson Alvarez Chris Nabholz
Jason Frasor RP 31% 52% 18% Jeff Parrett Bill Campbell Rich DeLucia
Brandon Morrow SP 46% 47% 6% Bruce Berenyi Juan Guzman Bobby Witt
Shawn Camp RP 21% 45% 34% Mike Marshall Mark Petkovsek Bob Locker
Carlos Villanueva RP 6% 48% 46% John Flinn Mark Williamson Keith Atherton
Henderson Alvarez SP 14% 61% 25% Mike Miller Tim Hamm Chris Holt
Trystan Magnuson RP 6% 42% 53% Brian Schmack Ehren Wassermann Laddie Renfroe
Danny Farquhar RP 3% 31% 66% Marc Pisciotta Mike Shade Eddy Rodriguez
Brett Cecil SP 5% 48% 47% Lance Painter John Cerutti Frank Viola
Dustin McGowan SP 8% 38% 54% Kip Wells Jason Bere Tom Edens
Alan Farina RP 11% 31% 58% Josh Banks Mario Soto Bob Gibson
Aaron Laffey RP 2% 25% 73% Sal Urso Anthony Ferrari Mike Bell
Jesse Litsch SP 7% 39% 54% Doug Jones Scott Klingenbeck Mike Thompson
Evan Crawford RP 2% 25% 72% Mike Venafro Clay Rapada Gary Wayne
Jesse Chavez RP 1% 19% 80% Heath Bost Travis Minix Darren Hodges
Joel Carreno SP 1% 22% 77% Dennis Sarfate Sean Douglass Richard Bartlett
Willie Collazo SP 2% 19% 79% Tony Fossas Jason Jacome Curt Young
Brian Tallet RP 3% 16% 81% Kevin Hickey Rigo Beltran Larry McWilliams
Clint Everts RP 1% 11% 88% Mike Schultz Ryan Henderson Kevin Towers
Luis Perez SP 0% 13% 87% Brad Weis Eddie Oropesa Randy Flores
Kyle Drabek SP 0% 10% 90% Danny Kolb Clint Sodowsky Brandy Vann
Vince Perkins RP 5% 10% 85% Mike Barlow Paul Giel Gary Wagner
Jerry Gil RP 0% 8% 92% Marty McLeary Maximo Nunez Jake Robbins
Rommie Lewis RP 0% 5% 95% Joe Beimel Bobby Bevel Jake Benz
Ronald Uviedo RP 0% 4% 96% Jeff Robinson Brett Myers T.J. Beam
B.J. LaMura SP 0% 4% 96% Jarod Juelsgaard Jason Grimsley Ken Ray
Mike MacDonald SP 0% 6% 94% Mike Grace Steve Comer Joe Mays
Scott Richmond SP 1% 6% 94% Nerio Rodriguez Jeremy Cummings Dan Petry
Yohan Pino SP 0% 1% 99% Tim McClaskey Kris Wilson Brandon Emanuel
Chad Beck SP 0% 2% 98% Steven Jackson Nick Masset Jeff Farnsworth
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Jose Bautista 19% 81% 82% 0% 1% 74% 74% 0%
Brett Lawrie 15% 6% 42% 7% 46% 34% 13% 24%
Edwin Encarnacion 6% 6% 16% 0% 0% 5% 5% 0%
Adam Lind 6% 1% 17% 3% 1% 27% 3% 0%
Colby Rasmus 2% 3% 12% 1% 3% 14% 2% 1%
Yunel Escobar 14% 20% 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0%
Kelly Johnson 1% 3% 6% 1% 5% 7% 1% 2%
Ben Francisco 4% 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Eric Thames 1% 1% 5% 11% 16% 7% 0% 0%
Travis d'Arnaud 3% 0% 5% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0%
Travis Snider 1% 1% 3% 1% 0% 2% 0% 4%
Rajai Davis 6% 1% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 70%
J.P. Arencibia 0% 0% 9% 1% 2% 19% 0% 0%
Luis Valbuena 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1%
David Cooper 1% 0% 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0%
A.J. Jimenez 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%
Anthony Gose 1% 0% 4% 0% 32% 9% 1% 96%
Mike McDade 1% 0% 1% 4% 0% 4% 0% 0%
Mark Teahen 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Moises Sierra 2% 0% 3% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2%
Mike McCoy 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ryan Shealy 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Darin Mastroianni 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 0% 0% 67%
Adeiny Hechavarria 1% 0% 2% 1% 14% 2% 0% 4%
Craig Stansberry 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Chris Woodward 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Callix Crabbe 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Jeff Mathis 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brian Jeroloman 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brian Bocock 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Buzz Oliver 60% 92% 63% 38% 77%
Sergio Santos 56% 90% 97% 1% 76%
Casey Janssen 51% 92% 63% 19% 75%
Ricky Romero 27% 88% 19% 1% 58%
Jason Frasor 23% 77% 68% 1% 60%
Brandon Morrow 13% 74% 89% 0% 62%
Shawn Camp 17% 60% 2% 11% 71%
Carlos Villanueva 4% 42% 8% 3% 36%
Henderson Alvarez 2% 37% 0% 76% 27%
Trystan Magnuson 4% 33% 1% 1% 58%
Danny Farquhar 2% 28% 14% 0% 59%
Brett Cecil 0% 18% 2% 1% 7%
Dustin McGowan 1% 23% 8% 0% 36%
Alan Farina 7% 33% 28% 0% 67%
Aaron Laffey 2% 22% 0% 0% 46%
Jesse Litsch 1% 20% 2% 6% 23%
Evan Crawford 1% 22% 3% 0% 58%
Jesse Chavez 1% 16% 3% 6% 15%
Joel Carreno 0% 6% 6% 0% 23%
Willie Collazo 1% 16% 0% 18% 28%
Brian Tallet 2% 12% 11% 1% 17%
Clint Everts 0% 9% 6% 0% 45%
Luis Perez 0% 3% 0% 0% 39%
Kyle Drabek 0% 1% 0% 0% 19%
Vince Perkins 3% 15% 4% 0% 54%
Jerry Gil 0% 4% 4% 0% 37%
Rommie Lewis 0% 3% 1% 0% 20%
Ronald Uviedo 0% 2% 13% 0% 5%
B.J. LaMura 0% 3% 7% 0% 31%
Mike MacDonald 0% 1% 0% 3% 41%
Scott Richmond 0% 2% 3% 0% 5%
Yohan Pino 0% 1% 0% 6% 2%
Chad Beck 0% 0% 0% 0% 16%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections ArchiveRays Royals Reds Brewers Orioles Rockies Braves Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
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1. rawagman Posted: January 21, 2012 at 10:36 AM (#4041817)Also another season with 7 guys hitting 20 dingers? Should be a fun season.
Anybody think Encarnacion might be able to handle LF?
And not getting the Rebecca Black comp -- she was a one-hit wonder; Mathis is a no-hit mainstay.
Eric Thames is depressingly almost exactly where I figured. I'd really love for him to be a legit starting OF, but I fear it is not to be.
This suggests what I already believe - that D'Arnaud is ready to be the starting catcher now. But I'm guessing it's Arencibia for 2012 (to build trade value and also to give D'Arnaud some more seasoning)
Lawrie = yay!
Rasmus I'd be happy with that
On the pitching side, Henderson Alvarez is an odd guy. He throws very hard, and with crazy movement, but has the K/BB ratio of a Mark Buehrle. He certainly LOOKS like a good pitcher in person...but we all know how much that means.
I've always avoided asking for more projections as I don't want to come off as unappreciative of all the hard work. But this time I'll risk it! Where does Drew Hutchison stand? Or is only 80 innings above A not enough.
Interesting thought. What makes him so horrible at 3B isn't his athleticism so much as it is his inability to throw so it's not as crazy as it sounds at first. I'd suspect no, but who knows. Though oddly enough with all the guys the Jays have talked about playing OF (Rasmus, Thames, Snider, Francisco even Kelly Johnson!) DH seems like the only spot open for E5.
Seriously. As a Phils fan I was afraid I would be hitting the Brandy Vann every time I thought about the trade by now.
It's not like 253/299/421 is exactly light years better than 229/281/442 ... or anything to get excited about. ZiPS makes D'Arnaud the better defender but it's not like he couldn't use more AAA time to work on the hitting.
See comment 8.
I might be wrong, but I seem to recall talk last year that the Jays were thinking about putting Encarnacion at left and he was even getting some practice time there, but nothing ever came of it. If I had to guess, I'd say that he could play LF, but I wouldn't necessarily want him to. With the current roster I'd almost rather just sit him down, tell him he's DHing all the time except in case of emergencies so he could just focus on hitting the ball.
What the heck happened to Kyle Drabek?
I feel like a bad Jays fan for being more interested in Chris Woodward's defensive projections than Drabek's line. Although I have to say that I found it fun last season to see how long Drabek could last on the league leaders lists for walks and wilds pitches after he was demoted to Las Vegas. I think it was at least two, maybe three weeks before he dropped off the lists.
Morrow's IP look a little bit low for the number of starts he's projected to make.
I was going to say that it's nice to see Bautista's top comp go from Jack Voigt to Tom Brunansky to Ralph Kiner, but after checking his baseball reference page, I'd be rather upset if Bautista produced 2.7 more WAR and retired after 2013.
Better yet, see comment 4
Seems about right for a guy with both a lot of K's and a lot of BBs.
Interesting that ZiPS likes Bautista's defense better at third base than in right field.
Snider always struck out way too much, and eventually he got to a level where it caught up with him. And Drabek, for whatever reason, has never been all that good at missing bats - his record is probably a lot weaker than you remember it being, if you go back and check.
He's also got work ethic issues-- from what I've heard about him, he likes to party, and doesn't take his talent seriously enough.
I did not realize the state of Blue Jay pitching had gotten so bad. Any chance McGowan ever turns back into something useful?
Well, he pitched a little last year. That's a good start.
It's not exactly bad. They've still got a bunch of guys for whom it should never be a surprise if they throw a good game. All kinds of upside potential. But, yes, they could just as easily not work out too.
Morrow didn't take the huge step forward a lot of people were hoping for, Cecil was mediocre, and Drabek tanked. I know the minors look good, but the talent in the majors didn't seem to take any steps forward last year. I think this team can be competitive, especially with all of the upside in the lineup, but I don't expect big things from the pitching until 2013.
Big deal, they'll still finish as league average anyway.
I second this. I never thought of Drabek as the centre-piece of the trade. In fact, he was he piece I was least interested in from the get go. (as it turns out Gose looks like the most promising of the Wallace/Taylor/Gose swaps as well...if only because he hasn't had the opportunity to be a gigantic disappointment yet). For me D'Arnaud was always the guy and Drabek was an interesting, if thoroughly unremarkable arm.
Trust in the K rate... he'll get there.
I was going to say. Toronto's pitching always looks like a pile of dung coming into the season, and somehow they always seem to find lightning in a bottle.
I'll second that, and I don't know why either.
Not much to get excited about in Jays land.
There's Lawrie and Bautista at the core, and a really strong supporting cast-- Escobar, Johnson, Rasmus, and some other still-young hitters who could still develop. Not sure what more you can want out of a team. Lawrie, in particular, should be worth the price of admission. Add in a strong/deep farm and you've got a team that's at least interesting.
I wouldn't exactly call it lightning in a bottle. The Jays seem to always find random pitchers than will give them 180 innings with a 96 ERA+ or something. It's helpful, but not so much lightning in a bottle as much as, I dunno, a lit match.
He's in the Reds ZiPS -- 110 ERA+. That will be lower in the AL.
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