User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.7064 seconds
40 querie(s) executed
|
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
| ||||||||
Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Thursday, January 26, 20122012 ZiPS Projections - Washington NationalsIf the Nationals go into the season as the likely 4th-best team in the division, it's not from lack of trying - the team's been in on every major free agent this winter, making serious offers, and even being the favorite destination for Prince Fielder for about a month.The team's really just missing one big middle of the order bat to be in a good position to mix it up with the rest of the division and compete well for a Wild Card. They're not so far away that it can't happen in 2012 with some good fortune, such as health leading to big inning totals for Strasburg and Zimmermann, but there are just a few better candidates at this point. Even if they're missing that additional big hitter, they do have pretty solid depth and some good role players. Don't be alarmed by the Bryce Harper projection -- ZiPS has him with an OPS+ in the 130s in a few years. He's extremely young and didn't kill AA pitchers in his month there, so throwing him in the mix at the start of the season would likely be way too soon. Next Up: Cleveland Indians
Oracle on Twitter
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Ryan Zimmerman R 3B 27 .283 .354 .476 134 515 78 146 29 2 22 78 57 97 3 1 123 Michael Morse R 1B 30 .273 .331 .475 139 465 62 127 26 1 22 80 33 107 1 2 116 Wilson Ramos R C 24 .266 .338 .453 119 406 51 108 23 1 17 55 43 83 0 2 112 Jayson Werth R RF 33 .245 .342 .418 141 507 72 124 26 1 20 62 70 141 15 3 105 Bryce Harper L RF 19 .238 .317 .405 132 484 52 115 24 3 17 60 55 134 22 9 94 Adam LaRoche L 1B 32 .236 .313 .415 99 364 46 86 21 1 14 58 41 105 1 1 95 Stephen LombardozzB 2B 23 .265 .316 .379 156 614 83 163 30 11 6 50 41 91 19 9 88 Michael Aubrey L LF 30 .249 .300 .413 106 361 39 90 21 1 12 46 25 50 1 1 91 Mike Cameron R CF 39 .235 .301 .412 64 204 26 48 12 0 8 23 19 50 0 0 91 Chris Marrero R 1B 23 .262 .319 .380 156 592 61 155 31 0 13 72 48 128 2 3 89 Danny Espinosa B 2B 25 .229 .309 .400 156 582 79 133 28 6 20 71 56 177 17 9 91 Ian Desmond R SS 26 .256 .304 .378 153 555 65 142 28 5 10 57 36 129 19 7 84 Jarrett Hoffpauir R 2B 29 .252 .311 .383 113 405 45 102 26 3 7 42 34 44 3 2 87 Roger Bernadina L CF 28 .240 .302 .374 118 404 54 97 18 3 10 30 33 98 21 6 82 Jason Michaels R LF 36 .238 .290 .390 95 172 20 41 12 1 4 20 11 36 1 0 82 Xavier Paul L RF 27 .249 .295 .375 109 293 38 73 14 4 5 31 19 70 12 5 81 Rick Ankiel L CF 32 .231 .293 .386 114 355 44 82 20 1 11 36 30 99 6 2 82 Tug Hulett L 3B 29 .235 .305 .365 113 392 47 92 24 3 7 43 39 84 6 5 81 Andres Blanco B SS 28 .259 .300 .351 75 205 20 53 11 1 2 15 11 28 2 2 76 Brett Carroll R CF 29 .227 .289 .369 116 366 44 83 18 2 10 39 25 90 5 3 77 Matt Stairs L 1B 44 .211 .300 .338 59 71 9 15 3 0 2 7 9 25 1 0 73 Carlos Rivero R 3B 24 .243 .285 .356 148 564 57 137 30 2 10 60 33 127 3 3 73 Tyler Moore R 1B 25 .220 .263 .394 139 540 52 119 31 3 19 79 29 172 1 1 75 Manny Mayorson R 2B 29 .259 .295 .323 111 402 47 104 18 1 2 36 20 31 13 5 68 Corey Brown L CF 26 .211 .281 .364 130 459 55 97 19 6 13 48 41 164 8 4 73 Eury Perez R CF 22 .260 .293 .315 156 549 73 143 14 5 2 48 23 99 48 21 65 Jhonatan Solano R C 26 .244 .284 .341 98 328 31 80 17 0 5 37 17 48 1 1 69 Jesus Flores R C 27 .226 .266 .366 73 243 25 55 14 1 6 31 12 71 0 0 70 Alex Cora L 3B 36 .243 .302 .308 78 185 18 45 8 2 0 13 13 21 3 1 66 Seth Bynum R SS 31 .212 .262 .354 112 401 41 85 17 2 12 48 26 138 7 2 65 Ivan Rodriguez R C 40 .237 .279 .329 66 219 20 52 11 0 3 30 12 42 1 1 64 Carlos Maldonado R C 33 .215 .289 .311 44 135 11 29 7 0 2 16 14 36 0 0 63 Mark DeRosa R 3B 37 .244 .300 .277 46 119 13 29 4 0 0 13 8 23 1 1 58 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Ryan Zimmerman VG/86 Michael Morse FR/104 FR/92 Wilson Ramos VG Jayson Werth AV/101 FR/106 AV/101 Bryce Harper AV/125 FR/136 AV/115 Adam LaRoche AV/72 Stephen Lombardozzi AV/70 AV/118 FR/95 Michael Aubrey FR/84 FR/90 FR/118 Mike Cameron AV/117 AV/82 AV/104 Chris Marrero AV/150 Danny Espinosa VG/85 AV/107 Ian Desmond AV/104 AV/130 Jarrett Hoffpauir AV/133 AV/103 FR/107 AV/112 Roger Bernadina VG/85 AV/78 AV/106 Jason Michaels AV/79 PO/91 AV/92 Xavier Paul AV/89 FR/143 AV/112 Rick Ankiel AV/92 FR/118 FR/106 Tug Hulett VG/118 AV/76 FR/102 PO/96 AV/108 AV/94 Andres Blanco FR/94 AV/107 AV/107 Brett Carroll AV/112 AV/86 FR/123 AV/86 Matt Stairs FR/115 PO/96 PO/96 Carlos Rivero FR/143 FR/120 Tyler Moore 124/ Manny Mayorson AV/107 AV/102 VG/103 AV/111 Corey Brown VG/93 AV/120 AV/120 Eury Perez VG/114 AV/128 AV/94 Jhonatan Solano AV PO/118 Jesus Flores AV Alex Cora AV/120 AV/100 FR/96 FR/90 Seth Bynum AV/118 AV/95 FR/114 Ivan Rodriguez VG Carlos Maldonado AV Mark DeRosa FR/115 FR/113 FR/78 AV/85 AV/102 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Stephen Strasburg R 23 2.85 6 3 14 14 75.7 64 24 5 23 78 139 Gio Gonzalez L 26 3.55 14 10 33 32 195.3 173 77 18 83 190 112 Jordan Zimmermann R 26 3.65 7 5 22 22 120.7 116 49 12 29 100 109 Tom Gorzelanny L 29 4.09 7 7 30 19 116.7 113 53 12 47 101 97 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 John Lannan L 27 4.42 10 11 30 30 175.0 192 86 17 65 93 90 Ross Detwiler L 26 4.44 7 8 26 23 121.7 136 60 10 45 76 89 Livan Hernandez R 37 4.44 8 9 25 25 152.0 167 75 14 47 82 89 Chien-Ming Wang R 32 4.68 4 5 15 14 75.0 84 39 9 20 39 85 Erik Arnesen R 28 4.82 7 9 29 21 130.7 152 70 14 37 81 82 Craig Stammen R 28 4.93 6 9 29 22 135.0 155 74 17 39 86 80 Yunesky Maya R 30 4.97 5 7 24 20 116.0 134 64 14 32 70 80 Oliver Perez L 30 6.10 2 5 17 14 69.3 80 47 12 42 49 65 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Tyler Clippard R 27 2.85 7 3 72 0 88.3 64 28 9 35 107 139 Drew Storen R 24 3.14 5 3 70 0 71.7 61 25 6 22 70 126 Henry Rodriguez R 25 3.53 3 2 57 0 63.7 52 25 4 40 73 112 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Brad Lidge R 35 3.69 1 1 37 0 31.7 29 13 3 15 31 107 Sean Burnett L 29 3.79 5 4 70 0 57.0 53 24 5 22 44 105 Ryan Perry R 25 3.82 3 2 60 0 70.7 66 30 6 31 58 104 Todd Coffey R 31 3.88 3 3 68 0 62.7 60 27 6 20 50 102 Doug Slaten L 32 3.99 2 2 44 2 38.3 39 17 4 13 30 99 Josh Wilkie R 27 4.04 5 4 53 0 64.7 66 29 5 23 49 98 Jeff Fulchino R 32 4.04 3 3 53 0 55.7 53 25 6 23 49 98 Ryan Mattheus R 28 4.09 2 2 34 0 33.0 31 15 3 16 24 97 Rafael Martin R 28 4.41 4 4 42 0 49.0 48 24 5 22 39 90 Waldis Joaquin R 25 4.68 3 3 42 2 57.7 61 30 5 31 37 85 Cole Kimball R 26 4.70 3 3 40 0 46.0 43 24 5 33 41 85 Atahualpa SeverinoL 27 4.91 3 4 46 0 51.3 54 28 6 29 39 81 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Ivan Rodriguez .295 .332 .461 2609 9811 1374 2896 583 51 314 1362 525 1516 128 105 Ryan Zimmerman .278 .343 .453 2199 8550 1205 2373 493 35 313 1212 859 1470 56 113 Mike Cameron .248 .335 .441 2103 7313 1122 1810 411 59 295 1020 907 2010 297 104 Ian Desmond .254 .302 .378 1724 6270 714 1594 326 50 117 645 398 1333 184 83 Danny Espinosa .229 .311 .401 1783 6629 885 1519 324 57 233 800 648 1819 137 92 Wilson Ramos .259 .331 .437 1687 5765 690 1493 316 19 225 747 602 1089 0 107 Jayson Werth .255 .347 .438 1544 5352 798 1364 278 21 220 727 707 1434 150 109 Adam LaRoche .259 .329 .458 1361 4807 637 1246 316 13 205 767 506 1208 9 106 Michael Morse .270 .326 .456 1029 3498 429 943 192 7 149 552 230 719 9 110 Rick Ankiel .239 .301 .404 886 2719 359 651 145 10 94 323 227 709 36 87 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Livan Hernandez 197 206 0 4.44 550 549 3573 3955 1762 394 1194 2166 94 Gio Gonzalez 189 141 0 3.68 439 427 2589 2294 1060 265 1157 2558 108 John Lannan 119 140 0 4.30 377 376 2182 2340 1041 226 830 1172 94 Chien-Ming Wang 74 49 1 4.36 180 172 1023 1097 496 86 291 480 98 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Ryan Zimmerman 3B 44% 32% 15% 7% 2% Brook Jacoby Ken McMullen Garrett Atkins Michael Morse 1B 12% 30% 22% 24% 12% Mike Marshall Xavier Nady Bob Oliver Wilson Ramos C 40% 36% 15% 7% 2% Geovany Soto Jerry Willard Todd Zeile Jayson Werth RF 15% 26% 20% 21% 19% Bernard Gilkey Eric Davis Woodie Held Bryce Harper RF 6% 12% 12% 17% 52% Jayson Werth Michael Cuddyer Justin Upton Adam LaRoche 1B 2% 6% 10% 30% 53% Tony Clark Lee Stevens Damon Minor Stephen Lombardozz2B 7% 10% 16% 27% 41% William Suero Luis Rivas Nelson Liriano Michael Aubrey LF 1% 4% 7% 16% 72% Tim Norrid Daryle Ward Andy Barkett Mike Cameron CF 9% 9% 17% 25% 39% Brian Jordan Willie Horton Garry Maddox Chris Marrero 1B 0% 2% 5% 21% 72% Luis de los Santos Juan Tejeda Billy Butler Danny Espinosa 2B 10% 11% 17% 26% 36% Brooks Conrad Sean Rodriguez Dallas McPherson Ian Desmond SS 7% 15% 30% 28% 20% Royce Clayton Robby Thompson Rafael Ramirez Jarrett Hoffpauir 2B 5% 7% 13% 26% 50% Stu Cole Steve Lombardozzi Jorge Velandia Roger Bernadina CF 5% 9% 21% 33% 32% Scott Lusader Kevin Koslofski Dan Ortmeier Jason Michaels LF 1% 2% 4% 9% 85% Brian Jordan Willie Horton Mark Smith Xavier Paul RF 1% 2% 4% 10% 83% Steve Carter Alexis Gomez Cory Sullivan Rick Ankiel CF 1% 3% 13% 30% 52% Orsino Hill Darrell Whitmore Brian Lesher Tug Hulett 3B 0% 2% 5% 16% 76% Alan Lewis Tony Schrager Edgar Gonzalez Andres Blanco SS 2% 4% 14% 28% 52% Dean DeCillis Bruce Yard Keith Kessinger Brett Carroll CF 0% 2% 7% 21% 71% John Giudice Jeff Barry Troy Hughes Matt Stairs 1B 1% 2% 3% 8% 87% Tom Wilson Harmon Killebrew Jeff Manto Carlos Rivero 3B 0% 1% 3% 9% 88% Travis Hanson Steve BuecheleChristopher Valaika Tyler Moore 1B 0% 0% 1% 6% 92% Troy Farnsworth Ryan Mulhern Chris Kirgan Manny Mayorson 2B 0% 0% 2% 7% 90% Benjamin Perez Chris Wimmer John McDonald Corey Brown CF 1% 1% 4% 16% 78% Brad SnyderJeffrey Fortenberry Jon VanEvery Eury Perez CF 0% 1% 5% 13% 81% Willy Taveras Leo Sutherland Luis Mercedes Jhonatan Solano C 1% 3% 5% 18% 73% Jeff Winchester Drew Butera Brandon Marsters Jesus Flores C 1% 2% 6% 20% 71% Chris Curry Alvin Colina Tommy Duenas Alex Cora 3B 0% 1% 2% 6% 90% Mark Belanger Dan Rohn Larry Bowa Seth Bynum SS 1% 3% 6% 14% 77% Dave Matranga Nick Green Trace Coquillette Ivan Rodriguez C 1% 2% 3% 11% 84% Raul Chavez Pat Borders Joe Girardi Carlos Maldonado C 0% 1% 3% 9% 87% Chad Moeller George Mitterwald Steve Yeager Mark DeRosa 3B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Jim Davenport Billy Jurges Charlie Hayes Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Tyler Clippard RP 73% 22% 5% Eric Plunk Armando Benitez Ricky Bottalico Stephen Strasburg SP 85% 10% 5% Roger Clemens Josh Beckett Matt Morris Drew Storen RP 57% 38% 5% Antonio Osuna Heath Haynes Scott Strickland Henry Rodriguez RP 33% 49% 18% Mark Littell Steve Sharts Ryan Bukvich Gio Gonzalez SP 57% 38% 5% Tony Saunders Juan Pizarro Shawn Estes Jordan Zimmermann SP 51% 43% 6% Larry Christenson Danny Haren Frank Castillo Brad Lidge RP 33% 33% 34% Roy Thomas Toby Borland Rudy Seanez Sean Burnett RP 26% 47% 26% Brian Shackelford Ed Glynn Tim Hamulack Ryan Perry RP 16% 52% 32% Lee Smith Alejandro Pena Brian Bowles Todd Coffey RP 23% 52% 25% Hector Carrasco Brian Falkenborg Cory Bailey Doug Slaten RP 20% 37% 42% Tommy Phelps Vic Darensbourg Mike Munoz Josh Wilkie RP 13% 54% 33% Hipolito Pichardo Juan Padilla Gary Majewski Jeff Fulchino RP 13% 42% 45% Doug Bochtler Ricky Bottalico Brian Williams Tom Gorzelanny SP 23% 53% 23% Mickey Mahler Pete Falcone Al Leiter Ryan Mattheus RP 17% 38% 45% Marc Pisciotta Franklyn German Gary Wagner Rafael Martin RP 10% 34% 56% Gerry Hannahs Gabriel Dehoyos David Holdridge John Lannan SP 8% 56% 36% Jimmy Anderson Jeff Mutis Al Jackson Ross Detwiler SP 7% 51% 42% Jake Chapman Tom McGraw Jeff Mutis Livan Hernandez SP 9% 39% 52% Sid Hudson Steve Sparks Jack Billingham Chien-Ming Wang SP 11% 32% 57% Travis Smith Dave Eiland Brian Moehler Waldis Joaquin RP 5% 24% 72% Joe Davenport Marc Pisciotta Joel Moore Cole Kimball RP 7% 30% 64% Brad Voyles Josh Banks Santiago Casilla Erik Arnesen SP 3% 34% 64% Dave Borkowski Mike Thurman Tim Harikkala Atahualpa SeverinoRP 3% 18% 80% Kevin Tolar Mike Johnston Jason Jimenez Craig Stammen SP 2% 25% 74% Tim Harikkala Dave Borkowski Chris Baker Yunesky Maya SP 3% 29% 68% Dave Borkowski Mike Harkey Joey Hamilton Oliver Perez SP 0% 3% 97% Dan Smith Ed Yarnall Jimmy Williams Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Ryan Zimmerman 25% 22% 29% 2% 1% 12% 17% 0% Michael Morse 15% 6% 30% 0% 0% 13% 10% 0% Wilson Ramos 10% 10% 15% 0% 1% 2% 6% 0% Jayson Werth 2% 12% 6% 1% 0% 8% 4% 5% Bryce Harper 1% 4% 5% 0% 2% 5% 3% 22% Adam LaRoche 1% 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Stephen Lombardozz 6% 1% 1% 7% 61% 1% 0% 12% Michael Aubrey 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Mike Cameron 3% 3% 7% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Chris Marrero 3% 1% 0% 8% 0% 1% 0% 0% Danny Espinosa 0% 0% 2% 2% 16% 9% 1% 8% Ian Desmond 3% 1% 2% 2% 8% 1% 0% 9% Jarrett Hoffpauir 3% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Roger Bernadina 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 10% Jason Michaels 4% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Xavier Paul 4% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Rick Ankiel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tug Hulett 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Andres Blanco 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brett Carroll 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Matt Stairs 4% 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Carlos Rivero 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% Tyler Moore 0% 0% 1% 3% 3% 3% 0% 0% Manny Mayorson 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% Corey Brown 0% 0% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 0% Eury Perez 5% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 96% Jhonatan Solano 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jesus Flores 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Alex Cora 6% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Seth Bynum 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Ivan Rodriguez 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Carlos Maldonado 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mark DeRosa 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Tyler Clippard 71% 94% 98% 1% 64% Stephen Strasburg 65% 92% 84% 15% 89% Drew Storen 49% 90% 74% 10% 82% Henry Rodriguez 26% 76% 95% 0% 90% Gio Gonzalez 19% 81% 77% 0% 81% Jordan Zimmermann 18% 75% 24% 41% 66% Brad Lidge 23% 66% 70% 2% 81% Sean Burnett 20% 67% 12% 3% 72% Ryan Perry 16% 61% 22% 0% 84% Todd Coffey 17% 61% 17% 10% 75% Doug Slaten 20% 48% 16% 17% 68% Josh Wilkie 13% 53% 8% 4% 85% Jeff Fulchino 9% 47% 37% 1% 63% Tom Gorzelanny 5% 46% 37% 1% 65% Ryan Mattheus 17% 45% 12% 1% 79% Rafael Martin 7% 36% 19% 1% 62% John Lannan 1% 25% 0% 1% 76% Ross Detwiler 1% 25% 0% 1% 92% Livan Hernandez 2% 21% 1% 10% 76% Chien-Ming Wang 3% 22% 1% 32% 49% Waldis Joaquin 3% 22% 2% 0% 73% Cole Kimball 4% 29% 45% 0% 68% Erik Arnesen 0% 12% 0% 12% 63% Atahualpa Severino 2% 15% 11% 0% 66% Craig Stammen 0% 8% 0% 11% 38% Yunesky Maya 0% 9% 0% 18% 50% Oliver Perez 0% 1% 3% 0% 16% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2012 Projections Archive Blue Jays Rays Royals Reds Brewers Orioles Rockies Braves Astros Cardinals Dodgers Twins Giants Mariners Angels White Sox Tigers Mets Phillies Cubs Red Sox Yankees
|
BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot Topics2012 ZiPS Projections, Final Edition
(23 - 11:21am, May 31) Last: craigsaboe 2012 ZiPS/RBI Baseball (20 - 10:58am, May 03) Last: tjans 2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1 (62 - 4:38pm, Apr 10) Last: nemodomi 2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A's (69 - 5:57am, Apr 10) Last: Athletic Supporter's restaurant with Ted Danson 2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals (31 - 1:51pm, Mar 23) Last: hokieneer Pirates - Acquire Burnett (10 - 11:09pm, Feb 20) Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) 2012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates (41 - 10:02am, Feb 20) Last: Dangerous Dean 2012 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins (31 - 8:53pm, Feb 17) Last: A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo 2012 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox (46 - 4:41pm, Feb 17) Last: Jose is an Absurd Sultan 2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres (29 - 2:33pm, Feb 17) Last: Dan Szymborski 2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks (31 - 2:03am, Feb 14) Last: Dan Szymborski 2012 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers (21 - 12:43pm, Feb 10) Last: DEF: selfish min-maxer 2012 ZiPS Projections - Miami Marlins (31 - 8:16pm, Feb 07) Last: Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome 2012 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians (19 - 10:18pm, Feb 02) Last: DevinM 2012 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves (28 - 6:25pm, Jan 31) Last: Spahn Insane Syndicate |
|||||||
|
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| | ||||||
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Rays&Sox; Posted: January 26, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4046500)But why does ZiPS hate puppies and Ryan Zimmerman?
And I chuckle that Gorzelanny projects better than anybody in the Cubs rotation not named Garza (who may not be in the Cubs rotation for long).
-- MWE
Neither was Cuddyer and he wasn't full-time until 27. Werth I think had some injury issues that delayed him while Cuddyer had Tom Kelly and a non-good glove at third.
Also why did I think the Nats were non-horrible on offense?
And the quality of that Strasberg projection is phenomenal -- that's up there with Lee and Halladay, ahead of Lincecum and Felix.
Man, I hope Gio stays healthy, othwerise that was a lot to give up.
I'll take the under on that Strasburg projection. Looking at those projections and I like the way the Nationals are building a team, two of their three best hitters are at the positions that it's harder to get good hitters(Zimmerman, Ramos) the pitching staff is rounding out to be a probable league average rotation, they may not be able to compete with the Phils or Braves yet, but no reason to think that they won't break .500 this year. (heck just realized they were 80-81-78-83pyth-- last year--with probably an improved team this year)
Believe it or not, but Kelly's been gone for so long that Gardy is the manager who jerked Cuddyer around for about four seasons.
Back in the day both Werth and Cuddyer were highly regarded prospects (not as highly regarded as Harper of course)
Cuddyer made BA's top 100 5 times, including 2 times in the top 20
Werth was not quite as highly regarded, but made BA's top 100 4 times
Werth has 20.7 WAR in 925 games, 2011 aside, when healthy he's been a damn fine player, Cuddyer can hit a bit, but really not enough considering his glove (or lack thereof)
But of course the Nationals really do not want to see Harper take either the Cuddyer or Werth type career paths, methinks it may do the Nationals little good if he's an elite player, but not until he past 25-27
Also, I'm willing to wager that the projections on Zimmerman, Morse, and Harper are way too pessimistic. ZiPS tends to underestimate the ability of players to improve their performance with improved health and continued development. Like many projection systems, ZiPS makes players drag any statistics associated with their past performance through several years of averaging. Advanced forecasting models should differentiate between performance when conditions are good (healthy, finally figured it out) and performance when conditions are bad (nagging injuries, still learning the ropes).
On the rates or the innings?
The rates(era+). The innings is way too low of course.
I think I speak for everyone when we say we look forward to you releasing your advanced forecasts.
Interesting, Mike, why not? Who does he remind you of? Precocious power/speed and a league-average bat by the time he's 20 sounds a lot like Justin Upton, at least more than any other player I can think of. Or is Bryce that special he's in a class of his own?
EDIT: Or is Bryce not going to steal 20+ bases? What kind of speed does he have, anyway?
So...Harper's .700ish OPS in AA last year indicates he's figured it out?
Very small sample size at AA (learning the ropes) getting way too much weight in this projection. Time will tell...
Isn't this kinda what Rays fans thought in 2008? A Nationals division title wouldn't completely shock me, and a Wild Card seems well within their reach. None of the other 3 good teams in the NL East is "great". For that matter no team in the NL strikes me as "great".
No one is saying he won't be a good major league hitter eventually, just not at 19.
Only 10 players in history have put up a 100 OPS+ or better at age 19 or younger (<250 PA). Only two of those Griffey (108), Renteria (103), since 1965. Even ARod scuffled at 19.
A 94 OPS+ projection is awesome for a 19 y.o.
I think Harper would be a little better than the projection this year, but you will never go broke taking the under on what prospects will contribute the next year.
Plus, they've shown willingness to spend money and be aggressive in trades. I could see them making a play for Cabrera if the Tigers decide they've got too many 1B/DH types in 2013.
Have the Nats announced their plans for Harper-will he have a shot at making the big club this year? I had the impression they were targeting 2013.
It's not a simulation. It's a simple extrapolation of the last 3-4 years. Read the PT disclaimer.
Silly man - Joey doesn't know how to read!
And with just 44 innings thrown last year (majors and minors) the Nats would be well-advised to avoid The Verducci Effect!!!!!
If you're aiming for a pennant in 2013
C - Ramos
1B - Morse
2B - Espinosa
3B - Zimmerman
SS - Desmond
RF - Werth
CF - Giant gaping black hole?
LF - Harper/Rendon?
Thyse guys hyve somethyng in commyn.
On the bright side, Ramos's projection is pretty good.
Sob.
I hope you're right. But no other hitter in the past 10 years has put up a season as good as Morse's 2011 with a K:BB ratio anywhere close to as bad as his. I think you have to forecast quite a bit of regression for him, as pitchers give him fewer hittable pitches and force him to prove he can take a walk.
Not quite yet.
The difference between the 2012 Nationals and the 2008 Rays is defense, IMO. After shifting Upton to CF in 2007, the Rays invested in improving the rest of their up-the-middle defense in 2008, bringing in Bartlett to replace Brendan Harris, shifting Iwamura from 3B to 2B to make room for Longoria. The Nationals haven't really done that, and their D is nowhere near as good as Tampa's was after the offseason changes in 2007-2008.
-- MWE
UZR has the Rays as a 110! run improvement on defense from 2007 to 2008. That probably seems ludicrous to anyone that didn't watch BJ Upton struggle to adapt to 2B, Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson play shortstop, and suffered the agony of Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes in CF. Oh, and Ty Wigginton played 575.2 innings at 2B and 3B.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main