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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Thursday, July 13, 2006Cincinnati Reds - Tanked the 2006 season.Washington Nationals - Acquired OF Austin Kearns, SS Felipe Lopez and P Ryan Wagner from the Cincinnati Reds for SS Royce Clayton, 3B Brendan Harris, P Bill Bray, P Gary Majewski, and P Daryl Thompson. Wow. Wow. Wow. If I were a Reds fans, I’d be choking back the vomit right about now. The Reds, a team in contention, have just given up two of their most important position players to pick up 2 good relievers, a horrible SS, a waiver-wire 3B, and a decent pitching prospect with some injury problems. What else can be said about this trade? I’ve heard some talk about a Kearns trade this morning, but I never envisioned the horror that was unleashed by Wayne Krivsky on Cincinnati fans. The Nats have suddenly acquired two solid regulars in their 20s for players they don’t really need. Seriously, is Alfonso Soriano and unnamed player to be named later or something? |
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Hey, I got nothin'. I don't get it, either.
Kearns to the Nats
Barbaro (almost) to the grave
BAH!
Bowden with another good move.
My wife just emailed me: "WHAT ARE THE REDS DOING?" She's a Cardinal fan, but in February said the Reds would win it all. Now she's happy, but sad.
Not even that. He ditched the dreads this year.
OK, I'm going to try.
"Our bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster. We are in a position to contend this year, but to do that we simply had to add some quality arms in the pen to help us convert some of those leads into wins. To do that, we knew we'd have to give up something of value, and obviously Austin Kearns is a very valuable player. We feel, however, that we have the offense to compensate for his loss. Majewski and Bray will make a huge difference for us late in games, and that was a primary need if we're going to stay in this race in the second half.
As for Felipe Lopez, we just have to get better in the field. It's that simple. We know he's a talented player, but unless we start catching the ball better and making the other team beat us, we're not going to be able to win consistently. Royce Clayton is a fine player, and he will solidify our infield."
I haven't looked at any press releases or anything, but their story's got to be something along those lines, doesn't it?
"Nationals. Bowden speaking."
"Jim, it's Wayne. Listen, I have a trade to run past you. How about Kearns for Clayton, Harris, Bray, Majewski and Thompson?"
"Ha! Only if you throw in Lopez and Wagner. Now, seriously ..."
"Done! I'll phone it in to Bud."
Click.
"Wait ... what?"
OK, Krivsky, now get our boy in the lineup STAT.
... I can't believe this trade, it looks terrible for the Reds but it's for the greater good.
/Go Brewers!
I don't think it quite gets them there- but wow, it certainly improves them to the point they have to strongly consider avoiding a complete teardown job.
Michael Bolton: That's the worst idea I've ever heard in my life, Tom.
Samir: Yes, this is horrible, this idea.
Not unless they move to the AL, or move one of those guys to center. Bye bye, Jose Guillen.
Where are the Nats going to play Kearns? CF?
I, uh, I uh...
can't do it....
Bowdens' problem isn't that he can't swing a good deal on occasion, it't the fitting of those pieces into a team-
assuming there's nor eason to Kearns' injury woes will return, and FLopez' Dee is going to deteriorate any further this looks like a really good deal he just pulled off.
I'm having a tough time thinking of a trade LESS defensible than this one... Even the Kazmir trade - at least you could wiggle out using the TINSTAAPP principle.
Certainly - there are bad trades in retrospect, but I honestly cannot recall a trade a that looked this god awful when it was made.
If nothing else, I think this guarantees that no matter how bad the Cubs get, there will always be the Reds to show they can get worse.
And there are a lot more posts echoing these sentiments.
where even the host would say that it's ridiculous and would never actually happen.
Clayton 570.2 -4.6 -11
Lopez 611 -7.5 -16
Not much of an upgrade, yeah?
" Wow! Soriano's a Red."
Man, what a terrible trade. Just horrible.
None whatsoever. He throws hard without much movement and has nothing in the way of a good offspeed pitch to keep the hitters off-balance.
The Reds called up Denorfia and Bergolla to fill the roster slots for tonight's game. Bergolla will go right back down when Clayton reports (probably tomorrow) and the Reds will dump two pitchers when Majewski and Bray arrive (also probably tomorrow) - I have to think that Standridge will be one of them, and Mercker's the most likely candidate to be the other.
Sam M's post in #25 has to be what the Reds were thinking. The whining from the media about the bullpen had grown to near-cosmic proportions, and the rumblings about Lopez's defense weren't very far behind that.
-- MWE
I assume they trade Soriano. If they can get a player ready to make an impact next year, and sign a good FA or two in the offseason, they could contend for the WC next season, or even make a run at the Mets if Pedro and Glavine break down.
This deal stuns me and I don't get it. What amazes me even more is that Bowden got the best of Krivsky.
Can we quit bring this back to the Cubs? We all know that Hendry is busy actively evaluating the Cubs coaching staff . . .
Actually, eff that, Wily Mo, Seanez, Tavarez and Foulke for Dunn and Denorfia!
Bring Denorfia back to New England? BRILLIANT!
though for the love of mike i don't see how this works for the reds.
Sort of. Public speaking, but not debate per se. And thanks -- not an easy trade to defend, that's for sure.
And it actually IS a lot like the Kazmir trade in design: a GM with a single-minded focus (Duquette: Must bring in immediate starting pitching, no matter the cost; Krivsky: Must remake bullpen by end of all-star break, no matter the cost), who doesn't think big-picture, and who doesn't look at accomplishing a goal over a series of four or five moves but only at Trade A producing Result X. Period. Very, very bad.
And another thing they have in common: a serious mis-over-estimation of the team's realistic chances to contend, and thus overvaluing the benefits of any short-term gains you THINK you are getting (e.g., Clayton's defense; bullpen improvement) over long-term quality (every other part of the deal). Again . . . very, very bad.
How many games will you bullpen NOT get a chance to blow for you now?
Honestly, at this point they might be.
"I'm having a tough time thinking of a trade LESS defensible than this one..."
Ramirez and Lofton to Chicago for Hernandez, Bruback, and Hill. Always glad to help.
Are Majewski and Bray really good enough relievers that they upgrade the bullpen significantly enough to make a difference?
Majewski has 34 strikeouts and 25 walks in 55 1/3 innings. Bray has 16 strikeouts and nine walks in 23 innings.
Who thinks Guardado, Coffey, Majewski, Bray constitutes a good bullpen? It might not even be an average bullpen.
The Nats now have the second-best left side of the infield in the division. Good times.
As for the outfield, Kearns plays center until Soriano is traded (which he still will be) and then moves to left with the return of Alex Escobar (stop laughing, he was on a tear going into the break).
Majewski is a fungible reliever, though I would have liked to see Bray stick around, but honestly, who needs shutdown short relief when you're gonna stink.
Wagner might be something useful given the change of scenery.
All hail our new Lerner/Kastern/Bowden(yes, Bowden) overlords.
Also to consider, could Kearns be on the "Piazza plan" and on his way out of town shortly?
Anything's possible with this team and I love it!
This was my thought too.
well mock this trade accordingly, but he seemed to not be swayed by veteran magic. The relief pitchers in the deal are young and cheap.
Even if that's the case....WTF?
Oh yeah. The all star break's not over yet, after all.
Kearns gets hurt, F.Lopez's fliiding gets worse and he lsoes all HR power in RFK, Clayton doesn't suck too badly, and Denorfia gets called up and hits 325/400/525 in half a season...
It's baseball anytghing can happen- Schuerholz ended up winning the Millwood trade- how did that look at the time?
At least that trade accomplished the well-advertised goal of being a salary dump, didn't it?
Like most, I think Kearns and Lopez were worth more but at least Krivsky brought the payroll down. I just don't see these guys as having the big potential that the trade should have had. It *IS* impressive to see him go for younger players rather than the retreads. Now they just have to come through.
Hmmmmmm . . . . You think Zimmerman and Lopez are better than Chipper and Renteria? Actually, I'd still place them 4th, behind Cabrera and Ramirez, too.
Poor Jimmy Rollins. The only guy in the division without a decent dance partner . . . .
Even if that's the case....WTF?
Could be, but none of the players they got are anywhere near as valuable as trading chits as the ones they gave up, so what's the point? I can't fathom how they'd come out ahead here.
I'd put 'em third, after Reyes/Wright and Ramirez/Cabrera.
--At least that trade accomplished the well-advertised goal of being a salary dump, didn't it?
Also, keep in mind that Lofton was going to be a FA at the end of the season and Ramirez was a frustrating and largely unreliable prospect (albeit with great promise), while Hill was at his peak value, Bruback showed promise (and was also at his peak), and Hernandez was . . well, Hernandez.
Yeah, it was a bad deal at the time, and it certainly looks worse now, but it wasn't the howler this one is.
Honestly, at this point they might be.
With all due respect, no f'ing way.
The rotation is currently:
Livan Hernandez- 5.94 ERA
Ramon Ortiz
Pedro Astacio
and whoever of John Patterson and Tony Armas isn't hurt that week, and I guess they'll call Mike O'Connor back up.
The bullpen is currently:
Chad Cordero
Jon Rauch
Mike Stanton's corpse
and literally, nobody else, since Majewski and Bray are gone.
I like this trade (if for no other reason, I was sick of watching Royce Clayton waste atbats), but the Nats are going to be giving up a LOT of runs in the 2nd half.
As a Reds fan, I appreciate the effort to explain what the Reds were thinking. But this seems to be the equivalent of a sixteenth-century physician bleeding the patient to death in order to try to save him. It's indefensible. As a trade, I know it doesn't compare in historical importance, but the feeling in the pit of my stoumach right now is probably similar to how you felt when the Mets traded Tom Seaver to the Reds...
Interesting point of view. These are the NL East SS/3B pairings (2006 OPS):
(a) David Wright (966)/Jose Reyes (848)
(b) Chipper Jones (923)/Edgar Renteria (861)
(c) Miguel Cabrera (998)/Hanley Ramirez (750)
(d) David Bell (696)/Jimmy Rollins (744)
(e) Ryan Zimmerman (827)/Felipe Lopez (749)
Yes, but the point is not that one can predict the future. I heard the same thing at the time of Kazmir/Zambrano- well, let's see how they do. That is not the issue. The issue is one team got much more actual at-the-time value than the other.
You take it correctly.
-- MWE
Really thought the Reds could have gotten a starting pitcher out of any deal involving Kearns.
Holy crap. I'm reading this over and over again. It makes no sense.
If that's what you are feeling, VoD, then you have my profound sympathy. Because that was the worst feeling of my baseball fan life -- and my love for the game and the Mets didn't recover for years. Literally, years.
Can we quit bring this back to the Cubs?
Yea. This isn't so much an issue of Hendry screwing up. It's a case of Bowden knocking one out of the park. Sure the Cubs could've offered more. Hell, 28 teams could've more to the Reds than the Nationals did -- more than 28 if you include the Pioneer League.
That's sounds like an old apocryphal story where one GM gets the other GM drunk and gets him to agree to all sorts of ludicrous offers.
Way to go for the Nationals.
The Nationals get an excellent corner outfielder who can probably handle center whose hitting .274 .351 .492 and is still on the upside of his career. A shortstop whose putting up a decent offensive line, and whose defense is comparable to the person he's replacing and a minor-league reliever who throws hard, but is otherwise unimpressive.
In other words, Bowden fleeces his former team.
When I got to the Brendan Harris write-up and looked at his numbers carefully, a strange sensation came over me. (Go ahead, Derek--make an Aussie crack; it's good to get it out of your system.) I checked the numbers, and lo and behold...well, look it up yourself:
Brendan Harris, 2002 = Albert Pujols, 2000
There are some differences--notably that Harris was a classification higher than Pujols--but the raw numbers are eerily similar. Harris is the biggest sleeper prospect in the game, and I was compelled to move him into our Top 20. LINK
Immediately after the trade, Pirate management issued statements denying that the deal was a salary dump.
1: You didn't just trade someone who was already a certain hall of famer- in fact I seriously doubt you just traded a future Hall of Famer
but...
2: The Mets in Steve Henderson and Pat Zachary in all likelihood got back more in that trade than the Reds did in this one
(Ok, I don't believe it, but thought that someone should say it.)
Now you spin Soriano for better pitching than was given up in this trade I suspect.
Hill was a PTBNL (and the Pirates' second choice at that), and Bruback was waived a few weeks later.
Yeah, you're right. Hmmm.
That's a bold statement.
I remember that. Those were the rantings of a madman, like all of those "Dopirak is a star waiting to happen" stories that came out after he had a big season a couple of years later.
The time Harris actually made his way to the Cubs, Dusty wouldn't even let him off the bench. I seem to remember some defensive misadventures at 3B in his second start when he was called up to spell Ramirez (who may have been on the DL). After that, he sat on the bench for two weeks and got shipped back to the minors. And soon he was gone in the Nomar trade.
No, it began a bit before that. First, the sale of the team was essential. Until the DeRoulets were gone, I just couldn't bear it. But it then also took the emergence of some young players with real talent and enthusiasm -- Mookie and Hubie were the real first ones. When they became the face of the "new" Mets in 1981, my interest was rekindled. Seaver coming home in 1983 really cinched it, though. No doubt.
Starring Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick, of course.
I'm pretty dubious that this makes them better for this year, but I also didn't really see them as legit contenders anyway. It is questionable that they got enough of a return for what they gave up. Pre-arbitration established ML pitching gets traded so rarely that this may just be what it costs.
From the Nats point of view, I guess it is a good trade, but I don't see how they are close to contending next year. They don't have any starting pitching and this doesn't improve that. Kearns and Lopez are going to hit their free agency years before the team is ready to contend, so they will either be a little pricey or gone. If Kearns is a starting corner outfielder next year, he's probably a downgrade on what you would project Guillen or Soriano to be. The best use for either of those guys is probably to flip them for prospects given the Nats situation.
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