BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: Orioles

Transaction Oracle
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Sunday, November 12, 2006

Orioles - Acquired Wright

Baltimore Orioles - Acquired P Jaret Wright and cash from the New York Yankees for P Chris Britton.

Once again, the Orioles fail to understand where they are in the competition cycle. Jaret Wright quietly had a decent year for the Yankees, but acquiring him for a year with some cash in return for 5 years of their 2nd-best reliever is what a solid team that needs just one more arm does when it gets them to the playoffs.

I find the comparisons between the Marlins and the Orioles interesting. The last good Orioles team was the 1997 team - the Marlins had their first good year that year and won the World Series. The Marlins did the right thing for the wrong reasons and tore down the team, rebuilt the team, got it to the point it was a good team, won another World Series, tore down the team, rebuilt the team, and will probably have a good team yet again before the next time the Orioles are even .500, a feat they haven’t accomplished since that 1997 season.

After 10 years, the Orioles have still learned nothing. The team does none of the things that good teams do. While the farm system has developed a few players in recent years, something they couldn’t do in the late 90s, the farm system still didn’t give the Orioles much depth and looks pretty dry again. The depth the Orioles did develop, like John Maine and now Chris Britton, were both traded away for older players that are most likely inferior.

For the 10th season in a row, the Orioles will finish below .500, not have the slightest clue why other than OH MY GOD SOME OF OUR PLAYERS WERE ACTUALLY INJURED HOW COULD WE HAVE SUCH HORRIFIC LUCK? The team will also be confused as to why people aren’t showing up at Camden Yards and the ones that do are quite often fans of the opposing team. I don’t even know if or why I still root for this team - the Orioles aren’t a team, they’re laundry.

2007 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-

Player         W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-

Britton        3   1  57   0   72   64   29   6  25  60  3.63

Wright         9  10  28  26  144  153   74  13  53  86  4.62

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 12, 2006 at 02:46 PM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. bibigon Posted: November 13, 2006 at 04:53 AM (#2236203)

In a lot of ways, the Orioles have been the worse team in baseball over the last 10 years. I'd be surprised if they weren't last in terms of marginal wins per dollar.

2. Raskolnikov Posted: November 13, 2006 at 04:59 AM (#2236205)

This is great - 3 Wright trade threads! Has any player of such quality ever spawned 3 Primer threads concurrently?

The GM meetings can't come soon enough.

3. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 13, 2006 at 05:02 AM (#2236206)

Didn't somebody show in the past few days that the Cubs had the least cost-effective spending over a time-frame like that?

4. bibigon Posted: November 13, 2006 at 05:16 AM (#2236210)

Didn't somebody show in the past few days that the Cubs had the least cost-effective spending over a time-frame like that?

Perhaps. They somehow don't strike as having anywhere near the same lack of comprehension as the Orioles do.

5. SouthSideRyan Posted: November 13, 2006 at 05:21 AM (#2236213)

Well the Orioles have a worse record over the last 10 years. I'd be surprised to find out the Cubs spent more than them during that timeframe, though maybe the past few years have given the Cubs the lead.

6. Captain Supporter Posted: November 13, 2006 at 05:14 PM (#2236457)

Its hard to under stand what the Orioles were thinking, although I suppose its obvious enough that Leo Mazzoni feels he can work his magic on Wright for the second time. Safe prediction: it won't work. But one thing is becoming increasingly clear: Brian Cashman continues to shine now that the fetters from Tampa have been removed. In one month he has freed up $16M in payroll, eliminated two significant problems, and obtained four decent young arms. Now if he can only trade little Alex for a needed top tier starter, he'll cap off his year in style and set up the long overdue 27th championship. This is the logical conclusion to this trilogy and I supect he will try very hard to get it done.

7. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: November 13, 2006 at 05:39 PM (#2236470)

Wright is an interesting case - one reason why there are three active threads on this issue is the huge disconnect between those looking at his numbers and those who watched his starts.

For numbers watchers, his IP look very low and his peripherals are not wonderful, but as Dan says, he "quietly" had a good season. For those of us who had the opportunity to watch him pitch all year, we are convinced that his numbers are a mirage, and he's closer to replacement-level than average.

This disconnect could certainly be fueled by something as simple as the YES broadcasting team or Joe Torre just not trusting Wright and pulling him at the first sign of trouble. But I don't think so - trying to be an objective evaluator, I fully believe that he's awful and trending worse. Personally, I thought that having Jaret v.2007 on the team next year would be a negative - the level of performance that I expect from him is such that I think the upside of his replacement would necessarily be better than him and all he can seem to do is start - I see no reason to believe that he can pitch out of the bullpen effectively.

8. Captain Supporter Posted: November 13, 2006 at 05:52 PM (#2236478)

I believethat one of the reasons that Wright's numbers appear better than Yankee fans think they "should" is that Joe Torre babied him in a way that had to be seen to be believed. He was actually pitching to about an 80 pitch count. A base hit or a walk after about 80 pitches and he was taken out, no matter how well he had pitched before. And, because of his propoensity to nibble rather than throw stikes, this was often in the fourth or fifth inning. As can be imagined, this had a profoundly negative effect on the bullpen. I suspect that Wright will not be able to pitch deeper into games and, accordingly, I'm glad he is gone.

If Mazzone is actually able to get this guy to throw stikes effectively than Ron Guidry should be looked at for not doing that last year.

9. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: November 13, 2006 at 05:55 PM (#2236481)

To be clearer - I think a simple buyout of his option or another way to excise him off the roster would be good enough - getting a possibly useful pitcher in return is pure gravy, and speaks well of Cashman.

10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 13, 2006 at 05:56 PM (#2236482)

I think Baltimore fans are probably the closest thing to Pirate fans in the AL. We feel your pain, Dan.

11. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: November 13, 2006 at 06:04 PM (#2236491)

If Mazzone is actually able to get this guy to throw stikes effectively than Ron Guidry should be looked at for not doing that last year.

I'm not necessarily sold on Gator as a coach just yet (which isn't to say I think he's doing a poor job--I don't) but if the level of performance we're holding him (or anyone) to is "Leo Mazzone did it, but he didn't" then you're going to be unhappy with pretty much any pitching coach

12. Captain Supporter Posted: November 13, 2006 at 06:10 PM (#2236497)

Yes, RB, I'm not talking about changing pitching mechanics or something difficult. Just pitching 101: throw stikes, get ahead, etc. If Guidry is not accountable for that, than what is he there for? Maybe Wright can't do it, but if he can, than Guidry did not do a great job with him.

Overall, however, I thought Guidry had a good first year. Certainly, Wang and Procter developed well, and some of the younger pitchers showed some promise.

13. Honkie Kong Posted: November 13, 2006 at 06:13 PM (#2236500)

I'm not talking about changing pitching mechanics or something difficult. Just pitching 101: throw stikes, get ahead, etc. If Guidry is not accountable for that, than what is he there for? Maybe Wright can't do it, but if he can, than Guidry did not do a great job with him.

True, but any major league pitcher knows that. Reason they can't translate that to actuality is either a lack of confidence or unclean mechanics.
You can tinker all you want but suddenly a pitcher will feel comfortable with one set of mechanics and voila..
Mazzone concerntrated on that..repeatable mechanics which is why I think he had success with Wright. He told him to cut the fancy bs out n told him to throw a fastball on the plate. It worked for a while.

14. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: November 13, 2006 at 08:41 PM (#2236731)

Anytime my team can rid itself of the most excruciating non-terrible pitcher I have ever seen and pick up a somewhat promising young pitcher who reminds me of Fatty Arbuckle, that's a good day.

15. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: November 13, 2006 at 10:13 PM (#2236867)

I've dished out my two cents on the other two threads about this trade. To make a long story short, I won't miss Britton. I don't have confidence in Flan and Duq but not because of this trade, I'm actually glad Flan and Duq traded someone just before his trade value plummets. And I wish the O's would have traded Britton for a younger player but I'll take Wright.

16. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: November 13, 2006 at 10:30 PM (#2236897)

The resemblence between Britton and Arbuckle is really striking.

17. Honkie Kong Posted: November 13, 2006 at 10:50 PM (#2236919)

Guess saying the jury is still out on Britton would be in bad taste then

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Sunday, November 12, 2006

Orioles - Acquired Wright

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