BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: Red Sox

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Red Sox - Acquired Gagne

Boston Red Sox - Acquired P Eric Gagne from the Texas Rangers for OF David Murphy, P Kason Gabbard, and OF Engel Beltre.

Gagne’s arm could still come off at any time and he’s not really pitching quite as well as he did in those 82.1-inning seasons, but he’s been solid for the Rangers and gives the Red Sox a really pretty top-of-the-bullpen for the playoffs. David Murphy has his uses and should be a good role player in the outfield for the Rangers the next few years, but he’s stretched as a starter and the Sox clearly prefer Jacoby Ellsbury. Kason Gabbard had a nice ERA for the Sox, but realistically, he’s filler in the long-term, not a mid-rotation starter. Beltre was signed by the Red Sox for about half a million and is considered a toolsy prospect, but at 17 and a little play in the GCL, it’s a long-term wait-and-see for the Rangers. Still, while the Rangers haven’t picked up A prospect in all their trades, they’ve picked up enough guys with upside that you would think at least 1 or 2 would pan out an dbecome something more.

2007 ZiPS Projection - Eric Gagne
————————————————————————————————-

Period            W   L   G  GS   IP     H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA
————————————————————————————————-

Actual 2007*      2   0  34   0   33.1  23    8   2  12  29  2.16

Rest of 2007      2   0  19   0   20.0  16    6   1   6  22  2.70
————————————————————————————————-

2007 Total        4   0  53   0   53.1  39   14   3  18  51  2.70

2008              3   1  49   0   48.0  41   16   3  15  44  3.00
————————————————————————————————-

* - Includes minor league translation, if applicable.

Top Comp - Trevor Hoffman

2007 ZiPS Projection - Kason Gabbard
————————————————————————————————-

Period            W   L   G  GS   IP     H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA
————————————————————————————————-

Actual 2007*      8   5  21  21  113.0 103   55  15  45  72  4.38

Rest of 2007      3   4  10  10   52.0  55   31   8  24  33  5.37
————————————————————————————————-

2008              9  13  31  29  159.0 170   94  24  73 103  5.32
————————————————————————————————-

* - Includes minor league translation, if applicable.

Top Comp - Bob Hendley

2007 In-Season ZiPS Projection - David Murphy
———————————————————————————————————-
Period AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Actual 2007* 390 37 101 22 5 6 39 31 64 5 .259 .315 .387
Rest of 2007 191 23 48 12 2 4 22 16 32 2 .251 .312 .398
———————————————————————————————————-
2008 574 80 164 31 5 11 64 42 85 6 .259 .316 .405
———————————————————————————————————-
* - Includes minor league translation, if applicable.
Top Comp - Marvell Wynne

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 31, 2007 at 09:35 PM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Darren

Posted: August 03, 2007 at 12:01 PM (#2468917)

The goodness of this deal for the Red Sox hinges quite a bit on Gagne being Type A. Otherwise, that's a lot to give up for 20 IP when you're almost certainly making the playoffs anyways. I also wonder if Dan Wheeler would have been a similarly good option for a lot cheaper.

2. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 03, 2007 at 12:16 PM (#2468926)

I thought there was virtually no chance of Gagne being a type A, what with a total of 15.3 IP in 2005 and 2006.

3. villageidiom Posted: August 03, 2007 at 12:18 PM (#2468929)

The other value is in Gagne not pitching for other contenders come October. Barring injury to the current Boston pen Gagne clearly would've added much more value to other teams than he likely will for Boston.

I don't like making trades with that kind of rationale, but (a) I can't deny that value exists, and (b) I'm not in the business of making trades.

4. Josh Posted: August 03, 2007 at 12:20 PM (#2468930)

For this off season, Elias will look at 2006-2007 stats.

He was type A before this season when Elias looked only at those 15.3 IP, though, and Theo was explicit in saying the Red Sox think Gagne will be a type A, fwiw.

5. plim Posted: August 03, 2007 at 12:23 PM (#2468934)

Is anyone opposed to the idea of trying to keep gagne (if he's healthy) and putting papelbon in the rotation? Or is papelbon our closer of the future, like for real?

6. covelli chris p Posted: August 03, 2007 at 12:24 PM (#2468935)

Or is papelbon our closer of the future, like for real?

yeah.

7. covelli chris p Posted: August 03, 2007 at 12:26 PM (#2468936)

I don't like making trades with that kind of rationale, but (a) I can't deny that value exists, and (b) I'm not in the business of making trades.

you forgot (c) gagne's still an excellent relief pitcher that can pitch high leverage innings for the red sox in october.

8. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 03, 2007 at 12:38 PM (#2468941)

Gagne's also insurance - relievers have a high stress job, and there's a nonzero chance that one of Okajima or Papelbon won't be at full strength in October.

I think that adding legit stars is always the right thing to do, especially when you're a huge favorite to make the postseason. I like the trade whether Gagne is a Type C, B, or A.

Though, to reiterate, Theo specifically said at the press conference that they were particularly interested in the trade because they would get two high draft picks next June if/when Gagne left. He was certain Gagne would be a Type A. I don't know if it was spin, but Theo isn't much for spin - he usually just refuses to say anything. On the extremely rare occasions that he makes a substantive, refutable statement, I take it as what he truly believes.

9. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: August 03, 2007 at 12:44 PM (#2468943)

So he more or less closed the door on the Sox re-signing him in the offseason, Matt?

10. covelli chris p Posted: August 03, 2007 at 12:45 PM (#2468944)

So he more or less closed the door on the Sox re-signing him in the offseason, Matt?

i don't think that comes as a surprise, though.

11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 03, 2007 at 01:05 PM (#2468955)

It's not news that Gagne will be seeking a big, longterm contract in the offseason. The Red Sox already have an ace closer. I don't think anyone was surprised by this.

Injury to Papelbon is pretty much the only scenario in which the Red Sox would bid on Gagne, and even then I doubt it.

12. Walt Davis Posted: August 04, 2007 at 12:02 AM (#2470058)

while the Rangers haven't picked up A prospect in all their trades

Was that:

(a) written before knowledge of the Teixeira trade?
(b) a comment that Salty is not an A prospect?
(c) a comment that Salty is sufficiently established to no longer be a "prospect"?

the only one that makes sense to me is (a).

13. Darren

Posted: August 11, 2007 at 03:48 AM (#2480881)

I wish Gagne were pitching well enough to be a Type A.

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Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Red Sox - Acquired Gagne

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