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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Tuesday, December 15, 2009Red Sox - Signed CameronBoston Red Sox - Signed CF Mike Cameron to a 2-year, $15.5 million contract.
This gives the Red Sox one of the best defensive outfields around. Ellsbury should be a dynamite leftfielder defensively instead of a so-so centerfielder. I’d still be open to a trade if a team wants to pay for Ellsbury as if he’s a star centerfielder, but he’s not going to hurt the team badly in left.
Cameron’s been a ridiculously consistent player for the last decade, never having a poor year, but also never having a real ridiculous superstar season, and while it might be tempting to call this a no-risk signing based on that, Cameron does turn 37 in a month and consistency isn’t terribly predictive. The resources devote to Cameron aren’t extreme and if the signing doesn’t work out, the Red Sox still have the money to bring in a leftfielder next offseason and move Ellsbury back to center.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 15, 2009 at 04:16 PM | 36 comment(s)
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1. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 15, 2009 at 04:46 PM (#3413375)Mantle, DiMaggio, Costanza
I don't think the Monster gives you license to use a totally crappy LFer - you can use someone with not-great range, but you still benefit from someone who gets good jumps and plays the ball off the wall well
And you've just described precisely the opposite of Ellsbury.
Unfortunately, in this case, I sort of agree with him. Given the size of the Fenway LF, I don't see the advantage of punting offense for defense there. I know a run is a run (more or less), but I don't see how Cameron or Ellbury in LF will put together enough defense to balance out their relative lack of offense.
As to the topic, those OPS+ projections are kinda disappointing -- accurate I assume but not gonna make anybody jump for joy. I'm a little surprised this was a 2-year deal but I suppose he was going to get one somewhere. And, of course, if he doesn't do well, he'll still make a fine 4th OF.
Question is what does this do with Hermida. He seems out of place now. If he was an RHB, it would be easy to see how he gets PAs (Ellsbury, Drew, Ortiz) but, as it is, the only guy he can steal PAs from is Cameron. Maybe this is a prelude to an Ellsbury trade or maybe the Sox will just move Hermida on somewhere. But Reed Johnson still seems like a good guy for the Sox to sign.
As things come into tighter focus, the Red Sox budget priorities also become clearer:
2009 Catchers: Varitek ($5m) and Kottaras (.4m): TOTAL: $5.4m
2010 Catchers: Martinez ($7.1m), Varitek ($3m): TOTAL: $10.1m
2009 IF: Youkilis ($6m), Pedroia ($1.5m), Lowell ($12.5m), Lugo ($9m): TOTAL: $29m
2010 IF: Youk ($9m), Pedroia ($3.5m), Beltre (just playing, here...$12m), Scutaro ($5m): $29.5m
2009 OF: Bay ($7.8m), Ellsbury ($.45m), Drew ($14m): $22.5m
2010 OF: Ellsbury ($.5m), Cameron ($7.75m), Drew ($14m): $22.75m
2009 SP: Beckett ($10.5m), Lester ($1m), Matsuzaka ($8m), Wakefield ($4m), Penny ($5m), Smoltz ($5.5m): TOTAL: $34M
2010 SP: Beckett ($12m), Lester ($3.75m), Matsuzaka ($8m), Lackey ($16m), Wakefield ($3.5),Buchholz (.45m) TOTAL: $43.75m
In terms of the relief pitchers, Ramirez, Bard and Delcarmen don't make any money. Okajima made $1.5 in '09, will make a little more in '10. Papelbon made $6.75 in '09, will probably add a few million to that figure this off-season. Saito made a surprising amount of money for a guy who was often the 6th or 7th option out of the bullpen (he was pretty good, but at the back of the list). His base was low, but he got a lot of money for finishing games, and ended up making $6m.
The bench, with Lowrie, Hermida (replacing Baldelli), and another corner guy, will likely be with a few million of the 2009 figure. Ortiz is making the same money in 2010 as he made in 2009.
So what's the salary difference, at the monet, between 2009 and 2010?
The catchers make about $4.7m more in 2010.
The IF and OF starters will be very similar, as will the DH.
The bullpen, thanks to Saito's departure, will like be a little under 2009 (perhaps $4m less).
The rotation will likely be about $9m-$10m more
NET: 2010 payroll will be about $10m higher...not counting the money they'll throw around to get rid of Lowell, Lugo's 2010 money was eaten, Matsuzaka's signing fee, if amortized over six years, etc.
Given that Ellsbury has been rumored for months as one of the potential centerpieces of a trade for Adrian Gonzalez, Cameron's signing is almost certainly exactly that.
-- MWE
Ok, I believe that. I was a terrible judge of defense as a kid. I thought Jim Rice looked pretty good out there.
9-You're making that up. He was horrible.
Is it O'Leary you're thinking of? I thought his defensive numbers as a Sox leftfielder were pretty decent.
ZiPS: 252/339/442
CHONE: 234/314/401
That's a big gap.
Must be, although I have O'Leary stuck in my head as RF. I'm just not sure crappy defense was a LF requirement for Duquette any more than it was for any other team. I don't think Manny was always terrible in the field, he just became that way over time.
He was also second worst (behind Coleman) in extra bases given up. No surprise there, a play not made in Fenway is fairly likely to be a double.
As Dale Stephenson wrote when posting this: "Mike Greenwell -- innocent victim of the wall, or the world's worst left fielder?" (Or what happens when a poor fielder plays left for the Red Sox)
Dale had Greenwell 122 runs below average (including the unpublished 1996. -19 there) and has Greenwell's 1995 as the worst by any LF in the limited run of DA (-29 runs)
I fail to see how Cameron's right-handedness keeps him from getting PT in the wake of the inevitable Drew/Ortiz injuries.
Not as big as the gap on Scutaro. I'll have to double check the park factor used, but the big reasons for a drop in BA despite going into a good hitter's park is the age, strikeouts, and tougher league.
He was referring to Jeremy Hermedia, who's a LHB. Cameron's signing would seem to make Hermedia a 4th OFer, but that's not so easy to platoon.
The answer on what to do with Hermedia by the way, would be to move Cameron to RF, play Hermedia in LF, and play Ellsbury in CF. Or DH Hermedia when Ortiz is out. Having two CFers helps in that you can move Ellsbury back to LF, or CF, and play Cameron in LF/CF/RF. Basically, Hermedia would DH or play LF, when one of Ellsbury/Cameron/Drew needs rest (If Drew needs rest, Cameron in RF, Ellsbury in CF, if Cameron needs rest, Ellsbury in CF, and if Ells needs rest, Cameron in CF.) I think that's how it'd break down. Nothing says here that these guys -must- play the same position all year.
I had Hermedia once. Doctor gave me some drugs and all is better now.
But if they come in at -5, will we say that they're really +30?
I'm always shocked by how high Philly says the payroll is.
Isn't that just because he figures the luxury tax numbers? You know, 40-man plus benefits. 15 guys at league minimum and the mandated set-aside is $15M easy.
breath on any fly ball bad. On windy days it was almost funny, as long as you were drinking.
He could really hit for a few years there, though.
Looking back at his BBREF page, I'm surprised at how misaligned my expectations of his OPS+ towards the end of his tenure are to what they really were. He wasn't Billy Hatcher at the end of his career after all, but he certainly wasn't what you wanted in a Boston LFer either.
If I ever end up in Coral Gables, FL I'm going to be sure to stop by his family fun park to pay my respects, and do so without irony.
You gotta quit picking up women at the free clinic.
It doesn't count under MLB's luxury tax accounting rules, so any official estimate of payroll should ignore it. If you're doing some other kind of accounting, deal with it any way that makes sense to you.
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