Let’s Give the Young Man Some Help

Don shows his soft side.

DISCLAIMER: The views expressed by Don Malcolm do not necessarily   represent those of the Baseball Primer or any of its other authors. For those who   suffer ill effects from any material presented here, Don suggests they follow the same procedure   specified in first aid manuals for rattlesnake bites. Those seeking further   redress, please contact Don’s legal beagle via email at co@backatcha.com.

Why Did Offense Explode In The Nineties?

As a card-carrying curmudgeon   (ranked at 9.77 on a 1-10 scale according to Edward Hume?s Personality Analysis   Profile),   I?ve made it something of a policy to have my say and move on. I?ve held to   this precept even in the Face of Controversy (which I think was a movie with   one of my all-time favorites, Lee Remick?or maybe it was really called The   Grip of Fear with Ross Martin as an asthmatic remote control bank robber   who winds up getting shot on the pitcher?s mound in Candlestick Park).

All that said (and that was   clearly more than you needed to know, except maybe for the fact that about twenty   years later I actually became involved with a woman who looked a lot like Lee   Remick: it didn?t work out, but it was fun while it lasted), I do at least read   my e-mail, despite what appears to be a widespread impression to the contrary.

I?m just very selective about   what I respond to. It?s the thin-skinned person?s method of simulating a thick   skin, I suppose.

And of course there are major   exceptions to such a rule. Here?s one of them:

?Mr. Malcolm:

I am researching for my term paper for my Honors English 201 class.?   What I am attempting to find is the answer to this question: ?What   has been the cause for the offensive increase in Major League Baseball of   recent times???

While doing this, I have come to believe that a definite answer cannot   be found, so I am looking for opinions.? I was hoping that you could assist   me by giving me yours be it based on statistics or if you think that is even   possible.?

Thank You,

Scott Robinson?

Now anyone who calls me ?Mr.   Malcolm? is either very young or very clever, because I just instinctively respond   to that ?Mr.? thing. (I?m about ten times as likely to respond to an email addressing   me as ?Mr. #######? than simply ?Hey, #######??I think when you?ve reached the   top of the slag heap you deserve a little respect, know what I mean?)

I also happen to think young   Scott is asking a very interesting question. And I think that he?s already come   to an important conclusion about the issue?namely, that the exact cause of the   explosion in offense in the nineties is a bit murky.

Basically, as I see it, there   are three elements that are often pointed to as causes for the rise in offense   since 1992:

The trend toward smaller,   cozier ballparks as a result of the ?retro? stadium construction mania in the   90s;
  ?          The emphasis placed on weight   training for hitters, accelerating what has already been a long-term trend toward   power hitting;
  ?          The composition and resiliency of the baseball itself, subject   of many rumors and theories.

Of these items, only the   first one is readily measurable as part of traditional baseball stats. The second   one resists quantification, but we can at least try to see when power made its   biggest increase during the period in question. We can do that by looking at   league isolated power from 1992 to 2000:

Year           NL       AL

1992         .116     .126

1993         .135     .141

1994         .148     .161

1995         .145     .157

1996         .146     .168

1997         .147     .157

1998         .148     .161

1999         .161     .164

2000         .166     .167

Though the NL has had a ?late growth spurt? over the past two years that has   gotten its ISO in sync with the AL, we can see that most of the upswing in power   (85% of it in the AL and 64% of it in the NL) occurred in the first two years   of the ?explosion.?

That would tend to indicate   that if you can look closely enough at the events in 1993-94, you might be able   to isolate the causes for the change.

One thing worth looking at   statistically would be the impact of baseball in Denver on the NL stats. Take   the Denver ballpark out of the NL overall stats and see how much of a gain in   offense occurs without it. That would be a good piece of data for use in a paper   for your English class, Scott.

The third item (the baseball)   is a favorite of conspiracy theorists. (It would be interesting to find out   if there is a larger-than-average number of these types amongst the baseball   fan sub-group than there is in the population as a whole, but I don?t know if   there?s a way to get that information.) The ISO numbers tend to indicate that   if the Lords juiced the ball, such would have occurred in 1993 and/or   1994.

That?s about as much as I   can come up with on this. What I?m hoping is that our readership will feel free   to add any thoughts, conjectures, studies, conspiracy scenarios, etc., to my   meager little attempt to answer Scott?s question. It strikes me that there is   a rich lode of opinion to be had from the baseballprimer.com readership, and   I?d like to see all of you add your ideas here, so that Scott will have a wealth   of viewpoint with which to work. Anyone who calls me ?Mr. Malcolm? deserves   to get an ?A? in his class (though there are doubtless many of you who would   contend the opposite!).

So whaddya say? Let?s help   Scott get an ?A? on his paper. Fire away with your ideas on this subject.