User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.2425 seconds
58 querie(s) executed
You are here > Home > Primate Studies > Discussion
| ||||||||
Primate Studies — Where BTF's Members Investigate the Grand Old Game Wednesday, October 27, 2010What Might Work in the World Series, 2010 EditionLast year I found out that What Works in the World Series is not the same thing that works in the playoffs. To summarize briefly, what we learned was that in the smaller sample of World Series match-ups, the advantage that pitching has in earlier rounds of the playoffs vanishes altogether, and hitting dominates, with fielding staying about the same.
This year, I took all the World Series since 1989’s Oakland vs San Francisco match-up, and using Vinay Kumar’s categories from 2004, looked at who had the advantage in each one. I then did exactly what Vinay did six years ago, and adjusted some categories in order to weed out roughly half the winners in each one, so that only those teams with a clear advantage in that category are counted in order to determine its ‘winning percentage’. The minimum gaps I came up with were very different from Vinay’s larger data set, because it seems that the good-hitting teams win about two-thirds of the time. And I mean that category sabermetrics has devalued a little, Batting Average. Batting Average 10 - 2 .833 Batters' Strikeouts (fewer) 10 - 3 .769 Slugging Percentage 9 - 3 .750 Batters' Walks (more) 10 - 4 .714 On-Base Percentage 11 - 5 .688 Doubles 10 - 5 .667 Errors 10 - 6 .625 Caught Stealing 11 - 7 .611 Runs Scored 10 - 6 .588 Triples 11 - 8 .579 Double Plays 10 - 8 .556 Net Stolen Bases 11 - 9 .550 Closer Saves 10 - 9 .526 Runs Scored/Allowed ratio 10 - 10 .500 Stolen Bases 10 - 10 .500 Pitchers' Strikeouts (more) 10 - 10 .500 Saves 9 - 9 .500 Complete Games 9 - 10 .474 Defensive Efficiency Rate 9 - 10 .474 Shutouts 8 - 9 .471 Home Runs 9 - 11 .450 Stolen Base Attempts 9 - 11 .450 Hits Allowed (fewer) 9 - 11 .450 Bullpen ERA 8 - 11 .421 Won/Lost Record 8 - 12 .400 Home Runs Allowed 8 - 12 .400 Stolen Base Average 7 - 12 .368 Runs Allowed 6 - 14 .300 Pitchers' Walks (fewer) 6 - 14 .300 ERA 5 - 15 .250 It’s a bit of a through-the-looking-glass world once we get into the championship. Putting it together, it looks like the playoffs do test all aspects of a team, demanding pitching and defence within one’s league, and hitting prowess once you take on the other league.
Or is the designated hitter rule an advantage to the American League?
The fact is that since 1989, the American League has won thirteen times, the National League only seven. A National League team is most likely to win if it can get close enough in the hitting categories to negate the Americans’ likely advantage in Batting Average. (Only the 1990 Cincinnati Reds managed to having a higher batting average than its American-League opponent in all twenty of these seasons. It would be interesting to compare this period to the World Series’ era when the use of the DH rule alternated year to year.
So what does this mean for 2010? (Italicized advantages are treated as ‘strong’. The two teams split the ‘weak’ advantages like ERA, with two apiece.)
Predictor Pick: TEXAS RANGERS
Although San Francisco actually has more advantages, history suggests that in all playoff series a significant advantage in stronger categories outweighs any advantage in all categories.
Hedging My Bets: One other World Series since 1989 saw an AL team that dominated all the hitting categories the way Texas does facing an NL team that dominated all the pitching categories. In fact, matching category to category, it is almost an exact fit. That NL team was the 1997 Florida Marlins. |
BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsLoser Scores 2017
(7 - 11:24am, Dec 22) Last: Mr Dashwood 2017-2021 CBA (1 - 10:47am, Oct 04) Last: villageidiom Loser Scores 2015 (12 - 2:28pm, Nov 17) Last: jingoist Loser Scores 2014 (8 - 2:36pm, Nov 15) Last: willcarrolldoesnotsuk Winning Pitcher: Bumgarner....er, Affeldt (43 - 8:29am, Nov 05) Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick What do you do with Deacon White? (17 - 12:12pm, Dec 23) Last: Alex King Loser Scores (15 - 12:05am, Oct 18) Last: mkt42 Nine (Year) Men Out: Free El Duque! (67 - 10:46am, May 09) Last: DanG Who is Shyam Das? (4 - 7:52pm, Feb 23) Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Greg Spira, RIP (45 - 9:22pm, Jan 09) Last: Jonathan Spira Northern California Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Sports, October 16, 2010 (5 - 12:50am, Sep 18) Last: balamar Mike Morgan, the Nexus of the Baseball Universe? (37 - 12:33pm, Jun 23) Last: The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball – May 21 and 22, 2011 (2 - 8:03pm, May 16) Last: Diamond Research Retrosheet Semi-Annual Site Update! (4 - 3:07pm, Nov 18) Last: Sweatpants What Might Work in the World Series, 2010 Edition (5 - 2:27pm, Nov 12) Last: Mr Dashwood |
|||||||
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| Page rendered in 0.2425 seconds |
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: October 27, 2010 at 05:53 PM (#3676947)At the moment, the results of this ongoing survey suggest that you need good pitching and good defence to get through the divisional and league championships, and good offense to win the World Series. So actually that's pretty heartening — MLB's championship tends to be won by a team that needs to be strong in all three areas.
Isn't that what we want?
For a time it was thought that teams better able to 'manufacture runs' through good baserunning and productive outs were better-suited to the playoffs. Actually, it seems the keys are hit prevention, making contact and a bit of power. In other words, a Dave Dombrowski model, although he's 1 for 2.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main