Winning Tout Wars

Earlier I had posited that I could win Tout Wars or LABR, two expert 5x5
Rotisserie Leagues.  I had explained that everyone essentially values the
players identically and everyone also has pretty close to identical information
about the players.  So, how exactly would I win?

The answer begins with putting a team in position to win.  Nobody can predict
perfectly what players will do.  So, there is a level of uncertainty.  The goal
is to use that uncertainty as a positive rather than a negative.  The goal is to
create a minimum baseline of success.  In a 5x5 AL league let’s look for 75
points as that minimum.  Seventy-five points is safely 4th or 5th place in the
AL Tout Wars league and even better in LABR.  How does one guarantee 75 points
but maintain upside without any real downside?

The first step is to manage risk.  It’s impossible to avoid or predict injuries, so I don’t mean that type of risk.  Instead, I mean point risk.  The biggest
risk is paying for saves.  While the top closers produce in ERA and Ratio and
even strikeouts, the second tier closers can actually hurt you in two categories
and not help you in two others.  Plus, even in Stage 3 leagues, closers can be
overpriced compared to their end of season valuations.  This is because saves
might not flow to the best closers.  Last year Joe Borowski saved 50% more games
than Mariano Rivera.  Finally, second tier closers lose their jobs more often
than other players.  The only reason to take a closer is if he’s exceptionally
cheap and multiple teams appear to be using a “no closer strategy.”  If that’s
the case, a few marginal dollars could be worth a few points.

The next step is to maximize pitching points without spending much more on
pitching than the other teams.  Assuming that the average team spends $75-82 on
pitching and scores 32.5 pitching points, the key is to gain more points without
spending more than the average marginal dollar per point.  The average point costs $4
($260/65), but the average pitching point costs a lot less ($78/32.5).  If a
team can spend $90 on pitching and achieve 41 points there’s already
considerable profit.  In his book Sam Walker also decided this is where the
profit can be achieved, but he had no experience.  He decided to buy the first
three pitchers figuring those were the top three pitchers.  One of them was
Mariano Rivera, a closer.  Later in the auction he took Sidney Ponson for a
middle level pitcher price of $12.  That proved to be a big mistake, one that
would have been avoided by a more seasoned player.

In the late 80’s, using the data provided to him by Jerry Heath, Alex Patton
proved that the top players in the league are actually the most likely to return
their value in the draft.  Later on, profits and losses have wider swings, but
the middle pitchers usually yield losses.  Ponson was one of those big losses.

In order to remove the risk of pitcher losses the Tout Wars league generally undervalues all starting pitchers.  LABR pays a
bit more for the very top starters, but bids pretty low for even the A- starters
and below.  I believe that that I could get three of the top pitchers for an
average price of $23.  Then I would save $2.50 per pitcher for four pitchers in
the crapshoot portion of the auction.  That’s $79 of my $90 spent on seven
pitches.  While $11 for my final two starters doesn’t seem like much, I think
there is considerable value to be had.  Pitchers with low Ks but average ERAs
are generally undervalued, especially to those who believe in K-rate in
predicting pitcher growth as well as those employing the LIMA Plan.  Rather than
looking for growth potential, I’d just be looking for a ballast for my staff’s
ERA and Ratio.  Basically, I’d be looking for the medical profession of the
pitching staff, pitchers who do no harm.  These two should do okay in wins and
Ks while puttin
g up league average numbers in the rate categories.  I’d also try to take any other potential rotation lock in the supplemental draft.  Both LABR and
its first offspring, Tout Wars, have a six round supplemental draft.  I believe
this three aces strategy should be worth no worse than third place in ERA,
Ratio, Wins, and Ks with a possible upside in each.  That’s 40 points plus one
point in saves for 41 total pitching points.

Now I’ve only got $170 for my offense, about $12 less than the average team.  An
average team scores 32.5 points, so I’ve got maximize my value to get to my
minimum target points of 75.  Stolen bases are the least correlated stat of the
five categories, so dumping steals is a possibility.  Another is going Sweeney
and dumping power, but I don’t think I can achieve 34 hitting points coming in
last in HR and RBI.  It would require a huge amount of Runs along with top 3
position in SB and Average.

I think the best place to look isn’t even one of the categories.  It’s At Bats. 
In a non-sabermetric world where walks don’t count except as to provide opportunities for steals and runs scored, I should focus on high average, high at bat
hitters.  These are the guys who make a lot of outs, but also get a lot of hits
and don’t take the base on balls when there are ducks on the pond.  These guys
should provide a solid base in average, runs, and rbi, but because they’re not
the premier accumulators in HR and SB, they won’t be too expensive.  Last year
an example of this type of target player is Placido Polanco.  He always hit for
a good average and batting second gets a lot of ABs.  He’s never going to steal
a lot or hit a lot of HR, so he’s perfect.  Coming off his career year, means
that this year he’s not a good fit for the plan, because his price may be too
high, but there are plenty of similar players available.

Another important aspect is to ensure starters or high AB platoon players at
every position.  Position scarcity has to be taken into consideration. 
Twenty-four catchers are drafted and there are only 14 starting catchers in the
AL.  That means getting two good catchers who will finish with a good average and put up the runs and
RBI needed for the plan to succeed.  Next, and this is probably the first and
only time you’re going to hear this, outfield is scarce.  Most people believe
that SS and 2B, or maybe even 3B are scarce positions, but that’s not the case. 
Teams draft 36 middle infielders and 28 of them are starters in the AL.  Teams
draft 60 outfielders and 42 are starters.  Plus, teams are much more likely to
take an outfielder and put him at their DH slot than a MI.  Another factor is
that some of these AB accumulators at MI are very bad hitters.  They accumulate
runs and RBI but they hurt in average and produce near nothing in HR and SB. 
Yet, because their reputations are
so bad as hitters they go for very cheap.  There are no starting outfielders
who go very cheap.  So I need five full-time outfielders.

Two of my hitters need to be in the $25+ category and produce in four
categories, including batting average.  They are most likely to return the value on my investment, based upon Patton’s research on high priced
players.  Whoever the first one is necessitates who the second one is.  If the
first is a big-time homerun hitter, I’m punting steals.  If he’s a big base
stealer, I’m punting HR.  Now, I’ve got an offense that should accumulate runs
and RBI, have a relatively good average, and either HR or SB.  My goal would be
to place 4th or 5th in three categories and 3rd in batting average.  That’s 35
points.  Adding one point in the category I’m punting gets me 36 points.  I’ve
exceeded my target.  I believe I have 77 points, which should be a fourth place
team and I have considerable upside in every pitching category - a 49 point
staff is not totally out of the question, plus RBI and runs could come through
even better than expected, leading to a team a very substantial chance to wi
n either LABR or Tout Wars.

All I need is to be selected to play.

Throughout the pre-season, I will be publishing my strategic theories on how to
win at Rotisserie baseball.  While the theories will be somewhat universal, I will be
focusing on AL only 12 team 5x5 leagues, just like LABR and Tout Wars.