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Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Spring Training Game Thread

The Red Sox are on NESN and MLBtv.  Right now!

Want to talk about the ballgame?

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 23, 2013 at 01:37 PM | 221 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Friday, February 22, 2013

Shane Victorino and the Stat Heads

Everyone on the internet hates Shane Victorino.  Shane Victorino has a strong statistical profile based on basic stathead number crunching.  This is a conundrum to me.  Let’s take point one as given. For point two, consider VORP.  There is no more perfect stathead stat than VORP.  It reduces all baseball events to simple run value.  It loves OBP and slugging, it doesn’t care about clutch, it only values high-percentage base stealing.  It doesn’t try to quantify defense, but includes a ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 22, 2013 at 01:52 PM | 54 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Monday, February 11, 2013

2013 ZIPS Projections for the Red Sox Are Up

Finally, some fake baseball to talk about.

Darren Posted: February 11, 2013 at 02:34 PM | 38 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox

Tuesday, February 05, 2013

It’s Truck Day!!!

It’s Truck Day!  I know some mock it goshdarn it I love me some Truck Day.  Anything that says “Spring and baseball are right around the corner” is A-OK in my book.

Of course I’m not going to let Spring Training lie.  As always I plan on going down to Ft. Myers to do my part to ruin careers, seasons and even lives.  For the record I was at Spring Training in both 2004 and 2007 so the Sox CAN win despite my jinxing skills.  I’m curious to see how Spring Training is this year. 

Last ...

Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: February 05, 2013 at 03:27 PM | 34 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, spring training

Sunday, January 27, 2013

The Bourn Possibility

Michael Bourn is still out there, and there’s no telling who’s going to bring him in. Although you always have to be careful making such assumptions when Scott Boras is involved, it’s starting to look like he’s not going to get the kind of megadeal he’s looking for. So, at what point might he make sense for the Red Sox? This is a really, really good player, who’s probably a good bet to give you about 3-5 WAR. If he could be had for 3-5 years for $15M per year or less, he’d be a very nice ...

Darren Posted: January 27, 2013 at 08:31 PM | 73 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Close Reading Rainbow

The big Francona/Shaughnessy tell-some book on Tito’s tenure in Boston will be available for purchase in a week, so its juiciest sections are getting the usual pre-publication flogging on sports media.  It looks like Sports Illustrated will be publishing longer excerpts soon, but a few bits have been made available already.  (The best run-down is probably in Gordon Edes’ piece on ESPN Boston.)  My reaction is mostly that if this is the worst that Shaughnessy could coax from Tito, then Tito is ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 16, 2013 at 08:55 AM | 23 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Minor Help

Not So Nasty Nate made a comment the other day about the Sox’ lack of depth on the corners that resonated with me.  I got to thinking about some players who are a bit off the radar and might contribute in 2013.  I’m pretty geared up for my Spring Training trip (52 days!) so count this as a little list of non-big name guys I’m hoping to check out somewhat closely while I’m there (thus ending their careers in the process).  Plus, a thread that isn’t all-Hall of Fame all the time seems useful;

...
Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 09, 2013 at 01:15 PM | 94 comment(s)
  Related News: minor leagues, red sox, sox therapy

Sunday, January 06, 2013

Brock Holt: The Prize at the Bottom of the Box

Of all the people involved in the recent six-player trade between the Red Sox and Pirates, Brock Holt has received the least attention. But Holty, as he’ll surely be called by an unimaginative teammates, deserves some attention, and not just because he sounds like he should be making movies with Chest Rockwell and Dirk Diggler.

Holt’s a middle infielder who, at age 24, hit .338 last year in AA/AAA/MLB. That’s after he’s quickly climbed through the minors while putting up a .317 average (with ...

Darren Posted: January 06, 2013 at 02:53 PM | 29 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Have a Therapeudic New Year!

Remember when someone (Joel, I think) suggested that we needed to rename Sox Therapy because, wait for it, being a Sox fan was so darn awesome? Remember that? Do you freaking remember that? How long ago was that, about 30 years? Wait, what, it was just a couple of years ago? Damn, that sword of Damon-cles sure came down hard!

With all the horribleness of the past year plus, things have been getting pretty heated around these parts lately so I thought it’d be a good time for a fresh start. To ...

Darren Posted: December 30, 2012 at 04:46 PM | 24 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Why Gonzo Being Gonezo is um…. Goodzo

In a couple of different threads about the big Nick Punto trade, I’ve argued, without a great deal of detail, that the Red Sox being rid of Adrian Gonzalez’s contract was a positive in its own right. With the snow falling outside and everyone in the house under the weather, now seemed like a good time to sneak away into a secluded corner and expand on this a bit (especially since no one asked).

Gonzalez is owed about $132M over the next six years. Looking solely at his WAR numbers, he seems ...

Darren Posted: December 29, 2012 at 03:14 PM | 32 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox

Monday, December 17, 2012

A Hundred Fifty Million Dollars for This

Feel free to read “this” either uninflected as if followed by a colon, or in italics with a full sneer.

The Sox have pretty much completed their 25-man roster.  There’s a small chance they’ll trade Ellsbury, and there’s a good chance they’ll trade a catcher and a reliever (or relievers) to clear up some logjams.  They might add a 1B/LF type for the last spot on the bench and let Jerry Sands have another year in AAA, and they could add a platoon LF in place of Nava or Kalish.  With ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 17, 2012 at 11:25 AM | 136 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Thursday, December 13, 2012

New Rule: Three Years

With the signing of Ryan Dempster to a 2-year deal, it seems pretty obvious that the Red Sox had one hard and fast rule that guided what they did this off season: no deals of more than 3 years. Every story on Hamilton indicated that the Sox wouldn’t go more than 3 years for him. Anibal Sanchez looks like he’s going to sign a very reasonable 5-year deal, but the Sox never appeared to be in on him. Buehrle/Johnson/Reyes would have almost perfectly filled their needs, but those players instead ...

Darren Posted: December 13, 2012 at 08:07 PM | 40 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox

Monday, December 10, 2012

Everyone Else in the AL East is Terrible

I figure most of y’all saw that SG did his first run of team projections based on CAIRO and showed a four-team dead heat in the AL East.  The Sox at 84 wins trailed ever so slightly the Yankees at 85 and the Rays and Jays at 86.  While it’s of course too early, it seems pretty unlikely that anyone’s going to project to run away with the AL East.  The Yankees could still remember that they’re the New York Yankees, but they seem pretty locked in to this unnecessary two-year rebuild.  The ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 10, 2012 at 03:57 PM | 173 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Friday, December 07, 2012

Let’s Look at Josh Hamilton and Three Years

So the big rumor is that Seattle and others are trying to get Josh Hamilton to sign for three years. And the big reaction has been, “If anyone signs him for that, it should be my team!” That presents a couple of issues. First, even if Hamilton signs for three years, only one team is going to get him, and everyone else is going to be mad at their team. Second, what would constitute a good three-year deal?

The point of a three-year deal is that you’re getting the best years, and if the player ...

Darren Posted: December 07, 2012 at 09:31 PM | 20 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

All-Around Players: Still Undervalued

The most recent Sox free agent news on the twitters is that the Sox are the favorites to sign Shane Victorino.  Robothal reports they’ve offered 3/38, pretty much identical to the Napoli contract.  The 2012 free agent market featured a bunch of players who produce value at the plate, on the bases, and in the field, without being particularly elite in any aspect of the game.  Victorino remains unsigned, while Upton and Pagan signed for 5/75 and 4/40, both less than I was expecting. 

...
Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 04, 2012 at 04:33 PM | 38 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Friday, November 23, 2012

Sign Mike Napoli (to a reasonable contract)

It’s been twitter-reported by Jim Bowden that the Sox are in on Mike Napoli but he wants a fourth guaranteed year before he’ll sign.  I assume Napoli is looking for a contract in the range of $10-15M per season.  I’m not so much sold on that fourth guaranteed year, as Napoli is a bad body hitter with old player skills.  But I’m going to get to the part where I contradict myself later.  I begin with the case for Mike Napoli.

First, he’s one heck of a hitter.  Napoli has hit ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 23, 2012 at 02:07 PM | 59 comment(s)
  Related News: mike napoli, red sox, sox therapy, tangotiger

Thursday, November 08, 2012

Full Count » For John Farrell and Juan Nieves, a working relationship 25 years in the making

Sounds like a perfect fit for the Red Sox.

That track record and the level of comfort between him and Farrell convinced the Sox that Nieves was the top choice among the four finalists (Rick Peterson, Randy St. Claire, Steve Foster and Nieves).

“We felt like we had four strong candidates that came in, each with their own talents and abilities, but we felt like Juan’s match to the staff that we currently have in place was a very good one,” said Farrell. “There’s a number of pitchers who ...

jimfurtado Posted: November 08, 2012 at 08:13 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Sunday, November 04, 2012

Keury De La Cruz And Shiny New Toys | FanGraphs Baseball

A nice write-up on Keury De La Cruz.

Entering the 2012 season, Red Sox prospect Keury De La Cruz was a relative unknown after two years of modest production in short season baseball. At 20, De La Cruz burst onto the prospect scene by posting a .308/.352/.536 line in the South Atlantic League before earning a late season promotion. Is De La Cruz a legitimate prospect? Sure, but the amount of hype he has received due to coming out of nowhere is a phenomenon repeated every winter. The names change, ...

jimfurtado Posted: November 04, 2012 at 09:03 AM | 6 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Saturday, November 03, 2012

Three Outfielders

Josh Hamilton is pretty widely considered the lone star outfielder available this offseason. Even fans and pundits concerned about giving him a six-year deal seem pretty convinced that on a shorter deal, he’s the cream of the crop. However, the advanced stats have refused to go along with this narrative. In fact, there are two other outfielders, both almost exactly the same age as Hamilton, who will be available on much cheaper deals: Angel Pagan and Shane Victorino.

Here’s the big picture, ...

Darren Posted: November 03, 2012 at 01:31 PM | 73 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox

Thursday, November 01, 2012

Everyone is an injury risk

Darren’s last post made me reflective.  I’ve definitely been in a sort of instinctive cringing position evaluating possible Red Sox free agent and trade targets.  Everything has gone wrong for the Red Sox recently with their major league acquisitions.  It’s not crazy that I’d react that way.  But there is a point at which it gets irrational, at which it detracts from analysis rather than adding a useful anti-fanboy factor.

I think this is particularly important with regard to ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 01, 2012 at 09:17 AM | 36 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Thursday, October 25, 2012

The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is… Everything

Over the last two seasons, the Red Sox have played some pretty brutal baseball. It was torture to watch them choke away 2011, and 2012 was so bad that it made it hard to even care. But even worse than just having to endure these two crudsuck seasons, the Red Sox failures have instilled a lasting fear in their fans: everything that they do, every decision that they make, will be wrong. And not just a little wrong, not ‘dealing for emerging star Coco Crisp only to find out that he’s actually ...

Darren Posted: October 25, 2012 at 08:30 PM | 17 comment(s)
  Related News: crazy clown town, red sox

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Meet the New Boss

The Red Sox have reportedly completed a trade for John Farrell to manage the club next year, and most likely into the future.  Expectations for 2013 are relatively low, and the Sox have committed talent to acquiring Farrell, so it seems likely this is our manager for a few years.  Farrell, of course, was the Red Sox pitching coach from 2007-2010 before Toronto hired him to manage their club.  I wanted to take a quick look at Farrell’s managerial stats from Toronto, to see what sort of ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 21, 2012 at 10:18 AM | 41 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Thursday, October 18, 2012

2013 Payroll and Roster: Money for Something

The offseason has already begun for the Red Sox with managerial interviews scheduled.  I have no opinion on these interview, as it seems like the Red Sox are mostly interviewing the traditional class of “yeah, he’s probably a guy who’ll get a managerial job” plus some former Sox coaches.  This is an upgrade over the ridiculousness of the Valentine search, and pretty much anyone with coaching experience above the Babe Ruth level would be an upgrade over Valentine in the dugout.  But ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 18, 2012 at 09:53 AM | 85 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Thursday, October 04, 2012

Manager Decision - Looking Ahead

What we have known for months became official today as the Sox fired Bobby Valentine.  Of course now the Sox have to set to the business of hiring a new guy.  The John Henry ownership team has engaged in two prolonged manager searches in their tenure (Little was a rush job so I don’t include him).  The first time they hit a home run with Terry Francona and last winter they lined into a triple play with Bobby Valentine.  Presumably neither of those outcomes is likely this time with the hope ...

Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: October 04, 2012 at 01:27 PM | 48 comment(s)
  Related News: managers, red sox, sox therapy

Surveying the Wreckage One Last Time: Did September Happen?

The season ended in proper fashion over the last six days.  The Red Sox were soundly beaten by the Orioles and Yankees, getting blown out early and coughing up late leads when they managed to start a game well.  Daisuke Matsuzaka ended a terribly disappointing Sox career on a fitting note.  Second-tier hopeful prospects like Lavarnway and Iglesias looked overmatched.  Bench players Nava and Ciriaco and Loney played like future bench players.  I watched the games, and I mostly regret the choice. ...Read More...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 04, 2012 at 11:27 AM | 37 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

Saturday, September 22, 2012

Minor League Review - The Pitchers

The Sox should be pretty pleased with the performance of their minor league pitchers.  While the veterans at the MLB level had rough years it was an encouraging year for a few prospects and The Trade added a little more depth.  At the big league level the final numbers were not great but Felix Doubront gave the club cause for optimism. 

What I see here is a farm system that has some guys who can either be contributors down the road or pieces if the Sox elect to go for a big trade.  This gives ...

Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: September 22, 2012 at 12:35 PM | 7 comment(s)
  Related News: minor leagues, red sox, sox therapy

Friday, September 14, 2012

Minor League Review - The Hitters

With the minor league seasons over it seems like a reasonable time for a look at the state of the system.  I’m going with the hitters for now and I’ll get to the pitchers later in the week.  I figured a position by position look probably makes the most sense.  Any reference to a league (e.g. AAA, AA, etc…) is where the player spent the majority of his season unless otherwise noted.

1st Base
Notables – Mauro Gomez (AAA), Travis Shaw (A/AA)

Not an especially strong position for the Sox ...

Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: September 14, 2012 at 10:52 PM | 82 comment(s)
  Related News: minor leagues, red sox, sox therapy

Sunday, September 02, 2012

Valentine’s Day Is Over: It Seems Clear Bobby V Will Not Be Back

After reading this in the Globe, it’s hard to imagine that Valentine will be back with the Sox.

Werner’s answer was perhaps telling about what ownership is thinking.

“I don’t really want to get into that today,” he said. “I don’t want to talk too much about him. But he’s had a challenging year. I think, as we’ve said before, he’s doing a good job.”

Will Valentine return in 2013?

“I don’t really want to go there,” Werner said. “I think we all thought we’d ...

Darren Posted: September 02, 2012 at 12:32 PM | 123 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox

Saturday, August 25, 2012

Minor League Update - The ex-Dodgers

We don’t need another thread on this trade but…the heck with it.  Plus, if it annoys TVErik a bit, that’s kind of fun (oh we kid because we love). With all the attention on the players we traded and the money gained I think some focus on the players we are getting back is warranted.  I ignored Loney because I think it’s a safe assumption that he’s going to have a Red Sox career about as long as Carlos Pena’s.

Rubby de la Rosa – So the first thing I learned is that it’s pronounced ...

Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: August 25, 2012 at 02:43 PM | 42 comment(s)
  Related News: minor leagues, red sox, sox therapy

Friday, August 24, 2012

Tossing C4 in the Wreckage: Boom

There are reasonably sourced reports that the Red Sox are trying to give away all of their players to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers apparently placed a waiver claims on Adrian Gonzalez (reasonable) and on Josh Beckett (crazy).  Reportedly the Sox are trying to work out a trade in which the Dodgers also take on Carl Crawford.  This is bugnuts insane, but also totally fascinating.

As with all trade rumors, you can’t evaluate this based only on the players moving from one team to the ...

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 24, 2012 at 07:10 PM | 331 comment(s)
  Related News: red sox, sox therapy

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