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Sunday, December 08, 2019

2020 Vision

With the Bruins loss on Saturday night the Sox are no longer the last Boston team to lose a home game in regulation. With that shame no longer attached and the Winter Meetings underway it is time to look ahead to 2020 with a first look at the Opening Day roster as it currently exists;

1B - Michael Chavis
2B - Marco Hernandez
3B - Rafael Devers
SS - Xander Bogaerts
LF - Andrew Benintendi
CF - Jackie Bradley Jr.
RF - Mookie Betts
C - Christian Vazquez
DH - JD Martinez
IF - Tzu-Wei Lin
IF - Sam Travis
OF - VACANT
C - VACANT

Well let’s start with the obvious, for all the top level talent the Sox have some MASSIVE holes.  The right side of the infield is a concern and depth is an issue.  Currently Vazquez is the only catcher on the 40 man roster so obviously the Sox will add someone there and I don’t think I’m being particularly clairvoyant if I suggest a reunion with Travis Shaw is in the offing.

I don’t think Bobby Dalbec is a candidate to start the year on the big club.  For all he’s done in the minors he only has 30 games at Pawtucket under his belt and was quite literally a bit hit or miss (7 homers, 29:5 K:BB).  I think as things currently are he could go Jackie Bradley circa 2013 on us in Fort Myers but I think the likeliest scenario is he opens in Pawtucket and with luck will perform well enough to earn a call up.

While the Sox aren’t going to be spending big on free agents this year they may well be busy this week with Chaim Bloom rounding out the 40 man roster (currently at 36).  A re-signing of Brock Holt would be a really good bit of business but I suspect Holt is going to get a considerably better deal elsewhere.  If Bloom can make that work the new guy would engender some goodwill out of the chute.  But while I love Holt players like him exist (Charlie Culberson is a name to watch).

Rotation: Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez, Hector Velazquez

I honestly thought the Sox had punted Velazquez but he is on the 40 man roster so he gets this spot.  I suspect that is a temporary situation though. At the moment Brian Johnson is not on the 40 man and I suspect the Sox would prefer to keep it that way to make him an option for an in-season call up.  The Rays have obviously found a way to make the pitching work in recent years and I expect the Sox to bring someone in to round out the rotation.

Bullpen: Brandon Workman, Darwinzon Hernandez, Josh Taylor, Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Heath Hembree, Bobby Poyner, Ryan Weber

Ah bullpens.  I suspect at least three of the guys on this list are likely to not be on the roster come Opening Day.  Weber gets included here for now because he is out of options (thanks SoxProspects.com!) but he and Poyner in particular are probably on the cusp.  I won’t be shocked if we see a reliever landed this week.

Clearly we are dealing with a roster in flux.  If I had to rank the needs I would do so this way;

1. Sign Mookie Betts
2. A reliever of some reliability
3. Someone for the right side of the infield (1st or 2nd it matters little, let Chavis take 1st base or Chavis/Hernandez 2nd)
4. The rest of the stuff

The likeliest outcome here is a pretty quiet week for Sox fans (except for complaints about the Yankees landing Cole followed by examples of why he really isn’t that good). Despite the relative silence this will obviously be an interesting off-season for the Sox with a lot of potential moving parts.  Ken Rosenthal has been suggesting repeatedly that the Sox might include Benintendi in a deal to get out from under the Price or Eovaldi deals.  That would certainly be intriguing and could be transformative if the Sox make the right moves in the wake of it (sign Mookie).

As always I suspect I left someone obvious off this list so feel free to mock me at your leisure.

Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 08, 2019 at 05:20 PM | 71 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. villageidiom Posted: December 09, 2019 at 03:54 PM (#5907212)
You left off Dustin Pedroia, but deserve no mockery because that's the right thing to do.
   2. jmurph Posted: December 09, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5907216)
Does Devers move to 1st at some point, or is there enough progress to assume he'll be close enough to average at 3rd soon enough?
   3. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 09, 2019 at 04:08 PM (#5907222)
Yeah I meant to mention that I wasn't including him because I don't expect him to be available.
   4. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 09, 2019 at 04:12 PM (#5907227)
I don't think there is a need to move Devers. He progressed a lot last year and the metrics suggest he is at least "OK" defensively. One thing about Devers as a first baseman is he's not real big, he's listed at 6' even and those numbers are always a bit iffy.
   5. villageidiom Posted: December 09, 2019 at 06:53 PM (#5907290)
Devers will be 23 next season, and showed improvement to a roughly average MLB level in 2019. I don't know if he'll ever get better than what he's done so far, but "young and improving" is the last category of players with whom you'd want to make a defensive down-shift.
   6. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 10, 2019 at 01:19 PM (#5907474)
With Cherington opening up the Pirates for trade, I wonder what Josh Bell would require for a return.

Guy scares me, he looks like a buy-high situation, and he tanked at the end of the year, but put him at 1st, and Chavis/Hernandez doesn't look that bad at 2nd.
   7. jmurph Posted: December 10, 2019 at 04:19 PM (#5907557)
Behind the Globe's paywall, but Speier tweeted that other teams don't think Boston is motivated to trade Betts. Hope that's correct.
   8. Textbook Editor Posted: December 11, 2019 at 12:35 AM (#5907655)
Can someone explain the benefit of dumping Price (3/$96) on San Diego in exchange for the vivisected corpse of Wil Myers (3/$61, including buyout)? You save ~$12 million a year, yes, but then you have a "1st baseman" who's played all of 7 games there in 2019 OR a 4th OF earning $20 mil a year. I don't get it, especially if they intend on keeping JBJ.

I suppose there's a world where they dump Price + JBJ and get back Myers + "prospects" to save maybe $23 mil in 2020, but then you basically have Myers forced into LF (Benintendi likely moves to CF) and becomes your #9 hitter because he's an OBP black hole, and you're down a SP you now need to replace. (And your rotation looks like Sale-EdRod-Johnson?-???-???.)

I suppose the charitable view is "hey, Myers is no worse with the bat than JBJ is, and it helps us shed salary," but I've never heard Myers is even 50% of the defensive OF JBJ is, so you're getting back a bad bat + poor corner OF defense.

I mean, look, if it helps us keep Mookie, sure, fine, do it. But I don't see how trading Price for, essentially, nothing, helps us compete in 2020. Although maybe not competing in 2020 is baked in at this point... And who knows, maybe if Myers has a dead cat bounce through June you can move him for a handful of beans and only eat 80% of the remaining salary, which saves you another $10 million or so...

I mean, I can squint and see a deal to be made, but unless they go full opener mode for 3/5 of the rotation (and maybe they will!), I don't see how getting rid of Price helps anything but the bottom line (though, admittedly, helping the bottom line seems to be the main focus)...
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: December 11, 2019 at 07:57 AM (#5907672)
Uh, what prompted that?
   10. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 11, 2019 at 08:03 AM (#5907673)
Can someone explain the benefit of dumping Price (3/$96) on San Diego in exchange for the vivisected corpse of Wil Myers (3/$61, including buyout)? You save ~$12 million a year, yes, but then you have a "1st baseman" who's played all of 7 games there in 2019 OR a 4th OF earning $20 mil a year. I don't get it, especially if they intend on keeping JBJ.


Myers was moved off of 1B because of Eric Hosmer. Unless JBJ were traded along with Price there's no way Myers plays in the OF outside of an emergency fill in game here or there. Myers wouldn't set the world on fire, but he's an above average hitter (career 107 OPS+) and an above average defender at 1B (8 rdrs in 336 games). And if downgrading from Price to Myers solves or alleviates the budget crunch, well, there are much worse options...like trading Betts.
   11. Textbook Editor Posted: December 11, 2019 at 09:10 AM (#5907682)
#9 - Rosenthal tweeted that the Padres (a) were in play for Price and (b) hoped to move Myers (presumably as part of the deal). If he tweets it, there's at least some small amount of truth behind it.

The tweet

#10 - thanks; I foolishly only looked at 2019 when it came to fielding last night and because I don't really follow the NL didn't realize he had made the switch to 1B earlier.

Still, a curious move if any deal is Price + JBJ for Myers. What's hard to figure is if that would be enough salary shed to get under the cap, given they'd then need at least another 3/4-type SP (unless they go the opener route, which from the rumblings in the media the last week or so makes me think they may be trial-ballooning to see if the fan base would be OK with it...). JBJ is the sort of guy whose bat might crater in SD, though his OF defense would seem like it would play well there.

It would be an interesting trade.
   12. Nasty Nate Posted: December 11, 2019 at 09:22 AM (#5907688)
Thanks for link.

and you're down a SP you now need to replace
This is the part that doesn't make sense to me about a Price trade. They don't have SPs banging down the door in the minors. And as we have noticed, pitching is very expensive to acquire. Maybe i guess a team could emerge who missed out on the big SP FAs and is desperate to make a splash, and would be willing to take a crazy percentage of the Price contract....
   13. Textbook Editor Posted: December 11, 2019 at 09:37 AM (#5907699)
#12--NN, I do think they're floating the idea of an opener to go with Sale/EdRod/Eovaldi, perhaps with some sort of arrangement so it's Sale-Opener-EdRod-Opener-Eovaldi so you (in theory) give breaks to your bullpen in between... But man, that presupposes healthy seasons for Sale/Eovaldi and that EdRod has made the leap and will be a 6 IP/3 R-delivering SP in 2020.

Of the Sale/Price/Eovaldi contracts, Price's is the easiest to move, I think, because he (in theory) is the most healthy at the moment. Personally I'd rather keep all the SP we currently have, but doing that doesn't get you under the cap unless you somehow move JDM + JBJ in a trade (and while I *can* see that happening, it just seems really unlikely unless some NL team believes they can hide JDM in the OF if Bradley is covering 2/3rds of the OF next to him (like Maddox with Luzinski back in the day).
   14. Nasty Nate Posted: December 11, 2019 at 09:44 AM (#5907707)
#12--NN, I do think they're floating the idea of an opener to go with Sale/EdRod/Eovaldi, perhaps with some sort of arrangement so it's Sale-Opener-EdRod-Opener-Eovaldi so you (in theory) give breaks to your bullpen in between... But man, that presupposes healthy seasons for Sale/Eovaldi and that EdRod has made the leap and will be a 6 IP/3 R-delivering SP in 2020.
With an opener, they still need people to take innings, even if they are not technically "starting" pitchers. The Rays used Yar-Bro and Beeks, and the Sox don't have guys like that just laying around. And the problem is doubled if they use TWO openers.
Personally I'd rather keep all the SP we currently have, but doing that doesn't get you under the cap unless you somehow move JDM + JBJ in a trade (and while I *can* see that happening, it just seems really unlikely unless some NL team believes they can hide JDM in the OF if Bradley is covering 2/3rds of the OF next to him (like Maddox with Luzinski back in the day).
I thought that they would be under the $208m mark just by moving most of JDM's money? Maybe I'm mixing things up though.
   15. Darren Posted: December 11, 2019 at 09:55 AM (#5907713)
Great news: the Cole and Strasburg contracts make Price and Eovaldi much more tradeable. Bad news: those contracts make it much harder to replace Price or Eovaldi.

I'm convinced even more now that something like a Price-Myers deal could be structured so the Sox cut ~$30M from their 2020 payroll. But then what?

One of the big knocks against trading Mookie is that he is near impossible to replace for 2020. But I don't know, is he? He should be worth about 6.5 WAR for $28M. If you could get Pederson, that's about 3 WAR for $9M, Gonsolin 1 WAR for minimum, and then maybe a prospect? If you can use the other $19M to get 2.5 WAR at 1B, reliever, and/or 2B, you're okay.
   16. villageidiom Posted: December 11, 2019 at 10:06 AM (#5907720)
Still, a curious move if any deal is Price + JBJ for Myers.
For now, the only one reporting Price + JBJ is you. Don't worry about it.

It would essentially be Price for Myers + prospects. The Padres are more motivated to upgrade their pitching and move Myers than Boston is to unload Price or acquire Myers' contract in return. Cole is off the market; Strasburg wasn't effectively on the market; the Dodgers will be damned if they let Bumgarner stay in the division but move south of LA. Boston is one of the few teams that might be willing to part with a top starter.

None of this is to say JBJ won't be traded, nor that he won't be traded to San Diego. I'm just thinking that if they're looking for salary relief to sign Mookie long term, they solve that with JBJ by keeping him for a year and not pursuing him in free agency. If they are acquiring Myers it's for 1B not OF, although positional flexibility is a positive in a post-Holt world.
   17. Textbook Editor Posted: December 11, 2019 at 10:45 AM (#5907749)
I'm convinced even more now that something like a Price-Myers deal could be structured so the Sox cut ~$30M from their 2020 payroll.


How? Price makes $32 in 2020, Myers makes $20. That would be a net savings of $12. If you threw in JBJ, then you'd net maybe another $12 you'd have otherwise paid. I'm not sure how you get the last $6 saved to get you to $30 unless SD kicked back some $, which would be somewhat nuts (though naturally I'm not opposed to them doing this).

With an opener, they still need people to take innings, even if they are not technically "starting" pitchers.


I wonder if Bloom looks at Hernandez and Johnson and sees 2x-through-the-order guys (3-4 IP guys) that--if combined with a lot of bullpen arms and a new 26-man roster--couldn't work as the guys who follow the "opener."
   18. Nasty Nate Posted: December 11, 2019 at 10:50 AM (#5907753)
I wonder if Bloom looks at Hernandez and Johnson and sees 2x-through-the-order guys (3-4 IP guys) that--if combined with a lot of bullpen arms and a new 26-man roster--couldn't work as the guys who follow the "opener."
Well, I can squint and see them making one opener (per rotation turn) work. But I don't think they have the roster makeup for two.
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 11, 2019 at 10:59 AM (#5907760)
It would essentially be Price for Myers + prospects. The Padres are more motivated to upgrade their pitching and move Myers than Boston is to unload Price or acquire Myers' contract in return.

I have a hard time seeing any team taking on much of Price's contract until he proves he's healthy. He threw 4 IP after July 30.
   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 11, 2019 at 11:00 AM (#5907761)
I wonder if Bloom looks at Hernandez and Johnson and sees 2x-through-the-order guys (3-4 IP guys) that--if combined with a lot of bullpen arms and a new 26-man roster--couldn't work as the guys who follow the "opener."

So, why not just start them and have a quick hook?
   21. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 11, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5907764)
I really can't see SD trading for JBJ. They already have a much cheaper 75-90% version of him in Manuel Margot. Defense first CF with a slightly below average bat. Unless they want to send Margot back in the deal...
   22. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 11, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5907766)
The Rays used Yar-Bro and Beeks, and the Sox don't have guys like that just laying around.


I mean, they certainly HAD a guy like that lying around, and it's not like he was some superstar in the system. He had a good spring, struggled a bit in his 1st call up, then, bam, turns into Eovaldi. There's no way to say for sure the Sox don't have a few Beeks' in the system right now.

Tanner Houck? Teddy Stankiewicz? Mike Shawaryn?
   23. Textbook Editor Posted: December 11, 2019 at 11:32 AM (#5907768)
So, why not just start them and have a quick hook?


I confess that I'm not fully up to speed with how TB worked this in practice, but I thought the theory was you bring in a good reliever to take care of Batters 1-4 or 1-5 in the 1st inning (maybe 1-6 over 2 IP if you're lucky/the reliever can do it), then give your longer guy a clean inning against (in theory) the weaker part of the order, and maybe that guy only has to face the top of the order once in his 3+ IP.

Of course, if the "starter" gets t be widespread, I can see teams adjusting from time to time by shuffling the batting order so as to not make it so top heavy, but that has a knock-on effect later in the game and, besides, you want your best guys batting the most times in a game regardless of the opposing pitcher.
   24. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 11, 2019 at 11:35 AM (#5907771)
The benefit of dealing Price is to get under the luxury tax number. If they do that for one year they are good to go an of course that makes it more palatable to ownership to spend a zillion dollars on Mookie.

Obviously in a perfect world they’d keep Price but I think that is doable. If thats the cost of doing business to resign Mookie I’m for it. As jmurph notes the Rays have shown that its possible to build a stafff from a bunch of JAGs.

FWIW Ive seen the same rumors TE has seen.
   25. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 11, 2019 at 01:29 PM (#5907816)
Some of my thoughts on this to something Darren said in a previous thread about not being comfortable with the Sox just blowing up the financial structure of the game. I have no doubt the Sox among a few other teams could go to some seemingly outrageous lengths ($400 million wouldn't surprise me) but I don't think that would improve Major League Baseball as a sport. I feel that in the case of a guy like Mookie, a genuine homegrown superstar, Hall of Famer who is incredibly popular that they should be willing to go over the luxury tax if they have to. But I completely respect that they feel they want to get under the LT number and moving on from Price, a guy who has neither been particularly worth the money so far nor endeared himself to the fan base, is the logical way to do it.
   26. jmurph Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:07 PM (#5907833)
Some of my thoughts on this to something Darren said in a previous thread about not being comfortable with the Sox just blowing up the financial structure of the game. I have no doubt the Sox among a few other teams could go to some seemingly outrageous lengths ($400 million wouldn't surprise me) but I don't think that would improve Major League Baseball as a sport.

I must have missed this thread because I don't really understand this at all. He will be the best and youngest player to reach free agency since (fill in the blank, I'm honestly not sure). So why wouldn't he command the biggest contract, and why wouldn't you be comfortable with your extremely rich favorite team being the one to give it out?
   27. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 12, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5908288)
This is what Darren wrote on the "Gumbo Limbo" thread;

I'm realizing now that I may be coming at this all from a different perspective than a lot of others are. A couple of things that influence my thinking:

--I remember when the Yankees were outspending everyone else and their fans were incensed when they wouldn't spend more when an opportunity arose to improve the team. I was always kind of grossed out by that. Like, when is enough enough? It feels gross to be acting the way that I felt was gross not so long ago.

--In a similar vein, I agree with the idea that baseball teams make tons of money (and the Red Sox are among the richest), and that they be willing to invest that in the players. But the Red Sox are spending more than anyone else. Why should they be expected to go even further beyond what the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Phillies, etc. spend?

--There's a common sentiment that goes something like: I understand they want to get under the luxury tax limit, but why NOW? It's so crazy that they're doing it now, at the worst possible time! But would it have made more sense right after their 2018 championship? Right after their 2017 or 2016 AL East championships? Next year?

So those are a few things I'm thinking about when I get snarky and probably sound defensive.


And I get those concerns. It does feel a bit icky sometimes to be able (and/or willing) to outspend just about everyone. That said, in the case of Mookie I'm not bothered because it's not like they are taking him away from another team. He's "our" guy and I want him to remain our guy. There is no real reason one of the richest teams in the game should lose a star like Mookie.
   28. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 12, 2019 at 04:35 PM (#5908291)
In actual news rather than conjecture the Sox have signed infielder Jose Peraza. On the good side Peraza can run and play everywhere. On the down side, he can't hit. Over his four MLB seasons he's gone decent-crummy-decent-crummy so with luck the Sox are catching him on the Bret Saberhagen memorial every other year thing.
   29. Nasty Nate Posted: December 12, 2019 at 04:37 PM (#5908292)
There is no real reason one of the richest teams in the game should lose a star like Mookie.
There's one. His choice.
   30. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 12, 2019 at 04:39 PM (#5908293)
Fair point. They shouldn't (within some area of reason) get outbid.
   31. Answer Guy. Posted: December 12, 2019 at 06:37 PM (#5908327)
There is no real reason one of the richest teams in the game should lose a star like Mookie.


Barring a scenario where he really, really, wants to leave Boston and no amount of money will stop him - agreed. This happens to Cleveland and Oakland and Tampa all the time, but this is a baseball-crazy city that last time I checked is the #7 media market in America - and four of the ones ahead of it have two teams.
   32. Nasty Nate Posted: December 12, 2019 at 07:18 PM (#5908333)
In actual news rather than conjecture the Sox have signed infielder Jose Peraza.
They got another infielder, Jonathan Arauz, from Houston in the Rule 5 draft. On fangraphs they note "This is the only draft-and-stash guy selected in this year’s Rule 5."

What do they mean by that? That the plan is to send him to the minors in a year if they can hold on to him?
   33. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 12, 2019 at 07:44 PM (#5908336)
I think the idea is the carry him on the 26 (that’s going to take some getting used to) man roster all year.

Actually as I think about it it should in theory be a bit easier to do that. Teams have been going with 25 man rosters for so long and presumably there will be opportunities to get him more playing time than Roger LaFrancois.
   34. villageidiom Posted: December 12, 2019 at 09:43 PM (#5908353)
Teams have been going with 25 man rosters for so long and presumably there will be opportunities to get him more playing time than Roger LaFrancois.
If he can play 2B he should get plenty of opportunities. I might have mentioned before that Pedroia probably isn't playing much.
   35. Darren Posted: December 13, 2019 at 07:57 AM (#5908391)
You can add Martin Perez to the rotation and Jose Peraza to the 2b mix. Both sound like good additions to me.
   36. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:06 AM (#5908413)
And between Peraza and Arauz, with Hernandez and Chavis already contending for time at 2B, I can't really see the Sox signing Holt. He had a good run, hope he does well for someone else.
   37. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:05 PM (#5908621)
Yeah I like those additions. Perez is the kind of guy they needed last year, not great but can munch on some innings for you.

Peraza makes sense and as noted by Jacksone it is hard to see a role for Holt. I’d love to have him back but really I’d be just as happy to see him cash in a bit.
   38. Darren Posted: December 15, 2019 at 12:11 PM (#5908800)
Seems to be a building consensus that the Red Sox will move David Price, or at least that this is the likeliest move to get under the tax limit.

This Fangraphs piece makes some assumptions that I disagree with and concludes:

1) Price's contract is worth about -$60M right.
2) The Sox would have to do something like bundle him with Benintendi to get back essentially nothing.

My main disagreements with #1: I think he double-counts the injury issue in Price's value. The ZIPS projection has Price pitching ~350 innings over the next three years and accumulating about 6 WAR, or ~$54M in value. That would be him around -$42M. The writer assumes his injury risks are even greater.

#2 I think just misstates how trades work. If you trade a couple of guys who are worth their combined contracts, that package has value. You should, in theory, be able to get back some players who are worth their combined contracts.


Other info: I think it was a recent Speier article that said the Red Sox are talking with teams about Price, looking to eat enough contract to get his cost down to $20M/year, and not interested in packaging him with Benintendi or others.

The game is afoot!
   39. CONservative governMENt Posted: December 15, 2019 at 04:13 PM (#5908850)
Kluber trade doesn't seem to bode well for a worthwhile return on a Price trade.
   40. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: December 15, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5908852)
Sale-Opener-EdRod-Opener-Eovaldi so you (in theory) give breaks to your bullpen in between...


Using relievers as openers guarantees the bullpen gets used much more than usual. Given that Sale couldn't get past 6 innings very often last year, it's a bad idea. They need SP.
   41. villageidiom Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:16 AM (#5908929)
Using relievers as openers guarantees the bullpen gets used much more than usual. Given that Sale couldn't get past 6 innings very often last year, it's a bad idea. They need SP.
Not to mention that last year was the first in which Rodriguez consistently got past 5 innings.
   42. Darren Posted: December 16, 2019 at 08:23 PM (#5909147)
Luckily, Garcia and Eovaldi are innings-eating horses. :)

I think Jose's point was that if you're going to use openers, you have to space them out.
   43. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 16, 2019 at 09:02 PM (#5909154)
I don’t think there is cause for concern about Rodriguez. Stuff happens and all but I think he finally got over the hump last year. We can put together worst case scenarios all over the place but I don’t think there is any reason to be unnecessarily pessimistic. Rodriguez should be expected to be very good in 2020.
   44. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:45 PM (#5909164)
We can put together worst case scenarios all over the place but I don’t think there is any reason to be unnecessarily pessimistic.


Who is pants pissing? Not me (yet, anyways). There's plenty of time to make moves to get better. I'll keep my diapers dry until opening day.
   45. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:47 PM (#5909165)

I think Jose's point was that if you're going to use openers, you have to space them out.


In my perfect world I'd use openers as often as I'd use spot starters. That's with a good SP rotation. This team has 3/5's of a decent rotation...today.
   46. Darren Posted: December 17, 2019 at 09:41 AM (#5909206)
It's never too early for pants pissing. Let's get a jump on the holidays and begin worrying... NOW!!!!
   47. Darren Posted: December 17, 2019 at 05:32 PM (#5909397)
The ZIPS projections for the Dodgers are up and they look like the best match for a possible Mookie trade (if they and the Sox want to). They have incredible depth at multiple positions and one of the few ways they could upgrade is by acquiring a superstar at one of those positions. Some combination of Taylor, Pederson, prospects, ??? would make sense.


   48. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: December 17, 2019 at 05:54 PM (#5909403)
The ZIPS projections for the Dodgers are up and they look like the best match for a possible Mookie trade (if they and the Sox want to). They have incredible depth at multiple positions and one of the few ways they could upgrade is by acquiring a superstar at one of those positions. Some combination of Taylor, Pederson, prospects, ??? would make sense.

A trade centered around Joc Pederson and Keibert Ruiz for Mookie would probably interest the Dodgers.
   49. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: December 17, 2019 at 06:31 PM (#5909408)
Jose, you loooooove this Tzu-Wei Lin guy, huh?
   50. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: December 17, 2019 at 07:24 PM (#5909413)
I think he’s a nice little utility guy.
   51. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 18, 2019 at 10:19 AM (#5909501)
A trade centered around Joc Pederson and Keibert Ruiz for Mookie would probably interest the Dodgers.


Two years of a player that is less than half as good as Mookie and a catching prospect, for one year of Mookie? It's jut not worth it for the Sox. I get that's probably a decent package, but the Sox should not have to be so desperate to do that.
   52. Darren Posted: December 29, 2019 at 05:50 PM (#5911607)
Two years of a player that is less than half as good as Mookie and a catching prospect, for one year of Mookie?


Pederson alone is probably going to be worth ~6 WAR in those 2 years at a cost of ~$20M. Ruiz is a nice talent who you have 6 years of.

Happy New Year, fellow Therapudians. We should know more about next year's team soon.
   53. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: January 02, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5912340)
Looks like backup catcher may be identified. Kevin Plawecki is your newest Boston Red Sox player. Seems like a perfectly garden variety backup catcher.
   54. Darren Posted: January 03, 2020 at 05:12 PM (#5912713)
Hard to argue with this move. Decent defense, about what you'd expect offensively from a backup, possibly an excellent framer. Value aside, it will be nice to not have an automatic out in the lineup when our backup C is playing.
   55. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: January 03, 2020 at 06:57 PM (#5912728)
Yeah the bat looks like it could be a bit better than it was last year and he's got some pop.

Incidentally, small sample size and all but not THAT small (over 200PA). Where does Leon's 2016 (.310/.369/.476) rank on the Sox "wheredidthatcomefromometer?" That's like the full Tinsley.
   56. Darren Posted: January 03, 2020 at 11:04 PM (#5912763)
Imagine how different this offseason would look if the Red Sox had never said anything about getting under the cap.
   57. Dock Ellis Posted: January 04, 2020 at 10:33 AM (#5912799)
Can't access Cots rn to double-check but one thing about Wil Myers that may be appealing to some teams is that he got a big-ass signing bonus (like $20M I believe), which brings his AAV down to about $12M per year against the cap, far from the $22M he actually makes.

Not saying he is ideal at all but his contract is a lot more palatable than one may think.
   58. Dock Ellis Posted: January 04, 2020 at 11:43 AM (#5912804)
Also Sam Travis was designated to make room for Plawecki.
   59. Darren Posted: January 04, 2020 at 11:55 AM (#5912807)
Is that how it works with the cap?
   60. Dock Ellis Posted: January 04, 2020 at 12:35 PM (#5912816)
I think so? Cots is still down but here's another source that has separate salary numbers for payroll and luxury tax.

I'm wrong about the details ($15M signing bonus and $13.8M against the cap) but yeah there is a big difference between what he's getting paid ($22.5M) and what counts against the luxury tax ($13.8M).
   61. Darren Posted: January 04, 2020 at 12:43 PM (#5912820)
I've always thought the rule was essentially that whoever is paying the actual money for that season, that's who's cap it counts against. With what you're describing above, if San Diego has already paid the bonus, it would seem you're right. That makes him a more attractive trade target for sure.
   62. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: January 11, 2020 at 01:42 PM (#5914786)
Sox have acquired reliever Austin Brice from the Marlins (always nice when small market teams trade with each other) for someone I’ve never heard of. He looks like a perfectly cromulent reliever.

To make room on the 40 man roster for him they have DFAd Marco Hernandez. Did Marco sleep with Sam Kennedy’s wife or something? He’s not great but he seems to be the yo-yo guy this winter and he seems like he could have some use to the team in 2020.
   63. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: January 13, 2020 at 06:07 PM (#5915356)
Didn't think I needed a line for MANAGER: ??? on this. My bad.
   64. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 13, 2020 at 08:31 PM (#5915411)
Didn't think I needed a line for MANAGER: ??? on this. My bad
In fairness, wouldn’t that deserve its own thread? And one for the draft pick penalties? And the fines?
   65. villageidiom Posted: January 13, 2020 at 10:10 PM (#5915448)
In other news, Sam Travis was outrighted. I am a little disappointed. I mean, given he was DFA I pleased they still have him. But I don't like that they'd need to make room for him again on the 40-man if they want to add him.
   66. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: January 13, 2020 at 11:28 PM (#5915483)
Yeah Travis is there with Marco. I’m not sure he’s all that but he seems like a useful enough guy to have around. A lot is going to hinge on Dalbec. If he can be decent then he, Chavis and whoever can be the right side of the infield.

I wouldn’t hate a Mitchy Two Bags reunion. He’s still sitting out there and he’s not going to be big money or long term. He can hold things down and be a bit of a mentor to Dalbec around the bag. If Dalbec doesn’t pan out Mitch is fine and just keep going.
   67. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: January 14, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5915533)
This may not be the best weekend to have the Winter Weekend celebration.
   68. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: January 15, 2020 at 07:37 PM (#5916283)
The Sox shuffled some deck chairs trading the previously DFAd Travis to Texas for LHP Jeffrey Springs. Springs has held LHB to a .342/.430/.456 line in his 43 game MLB career over two seasons. He may not be the final piece. Just sayin'.
   69. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: January 17, 2020 at 08:43 PM (#5917088)
More deck chair shuffling with Matt Hall being acquired for Some Guy. Another LHP in the fold!!!
   70. Darren Posted: January 20, 2020 at 10:01 AM (#5917516)
I guess this is the team? If so, here's some complete conjecture: They think they cannot sign Mookie, or are very unlikely to. They've made their best offer to him and it appears that it's not enough or he's set on going elsewhere. So they approached this offseason with the plan to trade him only if they got blown away. If they didn't, they remain over the cap, and then either deal him at the deadline if they are out of it, or watch him walk after 2020, then get under.

That would explain the asking price that Olney recently reported (getting this all 3rd hand): the Red Sox want 2 high-end prospects for a package of Price and Mookie.
   71. Nasty Nate Posted: January 20, 2020 at 10:31 AM (#5917524)
I guess this is the team? If so, here's some complete conjecture: They think they cannot sign Mookie, or are very unlikely to. They've made their best offer to him and it appears that it's not enough or he's set on going elsewhere. So they approached this offseason with the plan to trade him only if they got blown away. If they didn't, they remain over the cap, and then either deal him at the deadline if they are out of it, or watch him walk after 2020, then get under.
This all seems plausible. Although I might make a distinction between signing Mookie to an extension and signing Mookie next off-season when he is a free agent.

If you have the basic outline correct, I would then expect the team to sign a few more veterans to 1-year deals between now and the start of the regular season.

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