chone has drew at .837 OPS for 2008, +1 defensively in right. interestingly, that lines up with jd's home OPS for 2007.

from drew's fenway hit chart, it looks like he's trying to go the other way for doubles off the wall. he hit doubles well to the opposite field at dodger stadium in 2006, which may be why people thought he would be good in fenway. it looks like the problem lies in pulling the ball. he's not successful at it in fenway. to contrast him with ortiz, most of ortiz's homers are pulled to right, while his doubles are off the wall. drew may be trying to go too much the other way at fenway and it's hurting his power numbers.

Conventional wisdom doesn't recognize the talent disparity between the leagues. Conventional wisdom considers Fenway a good home-run park. Conventional wisdom figures there's no dropoff in performance until a hitter is at least 32 or 33 years old.

I'd like to see a little more power (or more *consistent* power?) from Drew. I guess he was playing through a variety of injuries last year, but that is small consolation unless he can avoid them in the future.

Any thoughts on his defense? His Zone Rating looked pretty awful, but Dan Fox' new system still shows him as a plus defender. Not much of an arm, both otherwise decent.

Conventional wisdom considers Fenway a good home-run park.

the 2007 park factor for fenway is 111 for hitters. the home run park factor for fenway shows it to be one of the hardest parks to hit homers in (with no wind and an average temperature of 69.4). but still, darren said "pretty numbers" and i would think with a park factor like that, we'd expect an overall inflation of hitting numbers from drew. i'm still convinced that not pulling the ball has something to do with it.

on defense: as i said in my posting above, chone has him at +1 which is OK but not great. one comp from that list for drew is magglio ordonez.

something that makes me happy: coco is our best defender on the list, and is ranked with grady sizemore.

I don't know how this story feels, but my morale remains high despite Drew's lackluster production.

I can't remember that much, except that I think I ran out of girls' names by September

Not much of an arm, both otherwise decent.

What led you to this conclusion? Based on my observations, I'm on the other side of the fence (I think Drew's arm is, at the least, slightly above average), so I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

Does anyone ever consider park factors or PBP for ranking OF arms?

I remember one or two incredible throws from RF that didn't even bounce to Varitek (IIRC he cut someone down at the plate). But in Fenway's RF and RCF it's so deep that there seems to be very little chance to keep runners in check. From the depths of the OF nobody is going to throw anyone out at 3B/HP. (Heck, Lugo has to go out to where Manny plays just to take the cut off throw.)

I thought Drew's defense looked pretty good, with the caveat that he never, ever dove for a ball. He might have extended his range and fielding ratings a bit by taking chances on those balls, but it makes sense for someone with his injury history to follow the Bill James/Otis Nixon approach to the OF.

I also wonder about 1st and 2nd half splits (if they even exist). He looked like he played much more conservatively as he was learning Fenway's RF, and seemed to get get better as he got more comfortable.

"Ridding of Tavarez"? They should rid you, first. ;-)

No love for Julian. Shameful.

I thought Drew got to everything that was reasonably playable. I don't remember seeing him misplay any balls hit to him. He always seemed to get a good jump on fly balls and LD's. Maybe that's another reason why he never dove for balls.

I thought Drew looked good all year long. The problem was that good swings he put on the ball and pulled almost always were on the ground. He is an off-season adjustment away from elevating more of those balls and turning 4-3's into singles and XBH's.

Maybe next year he could, ya know, hit 20+ home runs. Other than that, I had no complaints with his play this year. I'm a little astonished as to how he couldn't be rated as a plus defender. He got absolutely sensational jumps on the ball. As for his putrid hitting in the clutch for much of the year... eh, that will turn around on its own.

Maybe next year he could, ya know, hit 20+ home runs. Other than that, I had no complaints with his play this year. I'm a little astonished as to how he couldn't be rated as a plus defender.

Turn 9 of his flyouts into HRs and he's at 290/394/500. So yeah, just boost that HR total to 20 and I'll take a repeat of everything else. :)

I have no memory of thinking Drew looked either good or bad in the field. He just didn't stand out at all.

Drew's young son had a serious health issue during the season, and while I have no evidence that this affected him on the field, I have no evidence that it didn't either. Given fewer personal distractions and a greater familiarity with team/league, I expect Drew's contract to look much better a year from now.

It had to have affected him.

#6, he only had three assists all season, while Nixon has generally had twice that number. Like you, interested by the diversity of opinion. Could be runners were more cautious advancing against him.

#12, I'd be happy with a .285 BA and 15 home runs. Twenty seems like asking too much unless he returns to the NL.

Conventional wisdom considers Fenway a good home-run park.

Fenway is a good HR park -- for RH hitters (or, more precisely, to LF/LCF). It's HR death in other directions (esp CF). So CW is roughly half-right. Not the half that helps Drew obviously.

I thought it was close to neutral for RH hitters...the Wall taking away as many HR's as the cheapies it allows?

For those talking about Drew's home run hitting, here is a bit of info from my new favorite toy, hittrackeronline.com

It looks like Drew never used The Wall for HR's and did not get 'lucky' in his home run hitting. All but two of his were over 400'. I read on the site that it was going to have flyball data for the 2007 season, but I have not been able to locate it.

Nowhere else to post this:

If the Red Sox do not trade for Santana: What do they do with Crisp or Ellsbury? What is the Red Sox's plan for Lowrie? Play him another year in AAA and put him at short with Lugo as the utility infielder in 2009?

What are the plans for a Julian Tavarez trade? How much can they get for him?

Drew had one that cleared the wall that they ruled off the wall.

What do they do with Crisp or Ellsbury?

Crisp would be a very good fourth outfielder and defensive replacement for Manny -- unfortunately he surely would not welcome the role. We all know how poorly Pena's "400 to 450 AB" worked out. There were rumors around the winter meetings that the Red Sox asking price for Crisp was high. I'm inclined to believe that the Red Sox will be pretty stubborn on that, trusting to circumstance to resolve it one way or another. Maybe another team loses their CF to a season-ending injury and is desperate. Maybe Manny or Ortiz gets knocked out of the lineup for a couple months.

What is the Red Sox's plan for Lowrie?

Start the season playing shortstop at Pawtucket. I could easily see him taking over from Lugo in May/June if Lugo continues to struggle while Lowrie satisfies scouts with his defense. If both play well, one of the two becomes trade bait in July.