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BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsRIP Tim Wakefield
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1. Hugh Jorgan Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:41 AM (#2578767)It reminded me of heaps of regular season games we lost where we'd get 8-10 hits coupled with several walks and only get a run or two...very frustrating
the offense is manny and papi. when they suck, everything sucks.
coco .... we are getting near ellsbury pinch hitting with guys on in the 6th or later territory.
jd drew .... his weak groundouts to the right side annoy me more than other people's
'Tek... awesome awesome homer. obviously has some sort of voodoo on him that he cannot do anything with the bases loaded, and due to his lineup spot he is disproportionately in that situation.
i liked the little insight into Lofton delaying before stepping in the box and Claytons mic'ed comments et cet
was it just me or did McCarver make a point, and then after a beat say: "thats a really good point" about his own comment?
Ellsbury needs to enter the game at some stage for some one from the sixth inning on. Either Drew or coco would be fine with me.
but 21 of 22. Will the al pennant winner slow them down? I am starting to think they are on magic happy super-roid juice of some sort.
Yes. The Sox and Indians are both much better teams than the Rockies.
What an infuriating game. The top of the 2nd, Kenny Lofton's HR off the top of the wall, all the double plays, the terrible ump. Fdkfljsdklfs.
It sure would be nice to have Buchholz going tomorrow
Yeah, but Charlie Montfort just alluded to the fact that a certain monotheistic deity is on their side: "Praise God, and praise everybody that's in His Stadium." Which must have come as news to the beer vendor that thought it owned the naming rights.
No way The Big One can let the AL champ win now, is there? If he's up to snuff, it won't be locusts but blizzards in the top half of every inning played in Coors next week.
The snow factor probably means The Big One intends that Cleveland will be the victim - after all, they're the ones who had the start of their season whited out, so it must end that way.
biff, I'm telling you, it ain't natural. There's voodooo or something out here.
I only watched from the 4th inning on, but this seems quite incorrect to me.
The bottom of the lineup has turned back into the liability they were for most of the season, and Pedroia's slump has extended it. I wonder whether an Ellsbury start is at all on the horizon. Maybe down 3-1, but probably not otherwise.
Given that we all think Matsuzaka looked pretty good, why is there a proposal to pitch Beckett in Game 4 and Wakefield in Game 5? This would give us Schilling on extra rest in Game 6, but then we'd skip Matsuzaka for Beckett. It's hard for me to accept that Wake is a better bet than Matsuzaka and Schilling on normal rest, and a better bet by a large enough margin that we should lose a Matsuzaka start instead of a Wakefield start.
2) I don't like Beckett on 3 days rest, I certainly don't like Curt pitching game 5 instead of Game 6. That being said, if Wakefield is still hurt, we're royally f!@#ed.
3) That ump is F!@#ing b!@#!@#$
4) Imagine if we had traded for a GOOD pitcher instead of Gagne. We could actually ahve somebody shouldering Okajima's innings! ;suicide:
5) I'm in the 2nd day of my Psych Rotation. Basically the prof today accused half of Therapy of having Nihilistic Delusions.
Clearly that old bastard doesn't cheer for the Red Sox.
I'd say you go with Beckett. You can still pitch Wake or Lester if he does poorly. Beckett is so much better than everyone else on the staff, that you need to try and maximize his innings right now.
Poor construction of the post season roster - Gagne and Lopez are one out only guys and Lester has no bullpen experience - wouldn't Tavarez have been a better option than all three? But since its against Francona's religion to use a pinch hitter it probably doesn't matter.
We should lock up Mrs Drew for necrophilia.
Starting Beckett is the right call here, and I think any plan which gives Wakefield is a start is begging for trouble, km's bizarre crush aside.
Wow, I saw this quoted first in 29 but I didn't even have to look to know who said it. Spare us, Mrs. Duquette.
It likely would not have changed the outcome, but that 3-0 strike call to Manny in the 6th was the single worst balls/strikes call I've ever seen. Really incredible.
I like Francona as a manager, but the stay with your guys thing, doesn't work in a playoff series like it does in over the long series.
I disagree. If you think you've got your best lineup on the field, and it's the same lineup that got you the best record in baseball, why should you change that in a short series? You can't let yourself get caught up in the magnifying glass of the playoffs - the importance of each outcome is inflated, yes, but the weight of those outcomes should not be proportionally inflated in your decision making.
For example, even if you assume Drew is really only a .375/.425 hitter, that's probably still better than what Ellsbury is at the moment. Maybe Ellsbury is more likely to leg out an infield single, but who is more likely to give you an extra base hit? Or just get on base? Maybe it is Ellsbury, for all I know, but I don't think we have nearly enough evidence to say he is.
He's signed through '08, JC. He'll be back next year anyway. And it's not like he sucks - he's still an above average catcher offensively, believe it or not.
The turning point for me was when McCarver and Buck started talking about how great Matsuzaka looked in the early going. I yelled at my TV, "DON'T JINX HIM!!!" and on the next pitch Lofton homered. From that point it seemed to me the outcome was inevitable. All the crappy things that happen to doomed teams started happening to us. Ortiz gets hit by a batted ball. At least twice, a Sox hitter (Manny was one, I forget the other) had a 3-ball count and took a pitch that was clearly way off the plate, only to be called a strike (and the hitter ended up making a nonproductive out).
My wife said, in the fourth inning, that she had never, in 15 years, seen me so grouchy watching a baseball game. And I have to agree with her. I felt like I was trapped in my personal Hell, one in which Dice nibbles perpetually and weak double play grounders parade by.
P.S. I am fully on board with Wake, not Beckett, in Game 4. I would have no problem bringing Beckett back on three days' rest for a Game 7, but not for a Game 4. I'm concerned that he'd be less effective in Game 4 (on the three days rest) and then again less effective in Game 7 (on four days rest, but after a start on three days rest).
the red sox' best lineup includes jacoby ellsbury playing center field ... and probably leading off.
Touche.
I'm with you. I still just think it's cool that they won the division, and I like the Indians too much to be very upset if the Red Sox lose to them.
Did you tune in just in time for the 3-0 pitch? Ball one was pretty clearly a strike. The 3-0 pitch was obviously a make-up call. He'd have done it sooner if one of the other pitches had been close.
Pitch Beckett, it's obvious.
Just re-watched it on mlb.tv - it was a very close pitch, yes, but it doesn't come *close* to what a bad call the fourth pitch was. Even so, the idea of a "make-up call" is just silly.
Bad umpiring is bad umpiring, and it certainly cut both ways last night, not just against the Red Sox.
It's obvious if the season ended at the ALCS. But it's pretty clear that the Sox' front office is playing for a World Series win, and a loss in the WS is no better than a loss in the ALCS. From that point of view, pitching Beckett is very wrong, especially down 1-2.
In order to win the ALCS, they have to count on the series going 7 games, in which case the options are:
a) 2 ALCS starts, 2 WS starts from Beckett at less than full strength, and lowered effectiveness from *all* other starters.
b) 1 ALCS start, 3 WS starts from Beckett at full strength, higher effectiveness from all starters.
Option b) seems to lower the odds of winning the ALCS, but *overall* raises the odds of winning the WS.
I'd still go with Wakefield because I just don't trust short rest for the modern pitcher.
At the risk of stating the obvious, the Red Sox need to actually get to the World Series to win it.
Well, aren't you Mr. high standards? Oh, wait, I guess you are.
I'm compelled, I'm for Wake in Game 4, and I don't understand why everyone is acting like being down 2-1 is insurmountable without Beckett pitching all the remaining innings. If we have the same pitching matchups in Games 5 and 6 as in Games 1 and 2 I think we have a good chance of taking both. And our chances are decent in the other matchups as well.
Game 4 (Wed) Beckett on normal rest
Game 5 (Thurs) Wakefield (or Schilling on 4 days' rest)
Game 6 (Sat) Schilling or Matsusaka (or both?)
Game 7 (Sun) Beckett on 3 days rest backed by Schilling/Matsusaka (whoever doesn't pitch Game 6) & Johnny Wholestaff.
I think the above makes sense--and makes it more likely the Red Sox win this in 7--if there's a rainout tonight, so I think I'm going to be hoping that happens.
however, there are 2 things i'm fairly confident of: 1: as mentioned above, i'd put ellsbury in center field for this game and the rest of the playoffs. coco's a perfectly fine dave roberts. and 2: gagne needs to be put on the DL like the yankees did with clemens ... activate tavarez i guess. or brandon moss.
A 10% increase in winning the ALCS would have to be matched by an 18% increase in winning the world series. Let's say it's just 40% instead of 35% if beckett goes twice. EVWS=20% if he goes in game 4. What increase would he have to give in the world series? Well 20%=35%*x, which is about 58%. Again, a 5% increase in winning the LCS is worth 8% in the WS.
Is my math just stupid wrong here? That's entirely possible, but it seems right, and intuitive.
Because many "Latin" players ARE white guys? Just like many "Latin" players are black guys.
And Peralta doesn't look like a shortstop, and Sabathia doesn't look like a guy who could survive throwing more than 80 innings a season. Just a bunch of players who prove that you can't judge a book by its cover.
Your math seems right to me, but I think the front office has done this math, and decided that 1) the drop-off from 3-day Beckett to Wake is not that much, and 2) the benefit of early Beckett and rested starters give a bigger lift in the WS.
Note that pitching Beckett in game 7 of the ALCS leads to the possibility of losing the WS before getting a 2nd start form Beckett.
Absolutely true. But this front office has made it clear (as in the regular season, when they starting resting as soon as they clinched a playoff spot, as opposed to the division) that it makes no difference to them if they lose in the WS or the ALCS. So they are taking steps to give them the greatest shot of winning the WS (even if that menas a greater chance of losing the ALCS).
I may or may not agree with that, but it's nice to see a plan, and the willingness to follow through with that plan.
That may be true, but I think that's poor logic on their part.
There's a lot of uncertainty as to what would happen in a Red Sox-Rockies World Series, or any World Series. The Red Sox' path to hoisting the trophy would seem more likely to be a relentless*, patient offensive attack that grinds down Colorado pitching in a way that they're not used to seeing, and in a way that the Rockies hitters would be unlikely to match. (That's probably Cleveland's path to winning the whole thing as well should they prevail in this series, since their offense can be similarly tough on opposing pitchers.) I certainly don't want to say it's immaterial who you pitch in these games, but I'd expect high-scoring games either way and I like my chances in slugfests vs. the Rockies.
In an ideal situation you'd want your pitching staff to be rested and ready for the World Series. But that won't do you any good if these rested players are watching the World Series on TV.
* Although the way that our 7-8-9-1 hitters are hitting at the moment, we may not be relentless enough to make this really work.
Drew-Crisp-Mirabelli-Lugo in the bottom half of the batting order. Ugh.
I guess one can hope that Byrd's platoon split lunacy gets JD back into some sort of rhythm, but, ugh.
Definitely not - I think they'd rather have (30% CS)(70% WS) than (40% CS)(50% WS). You can certainly quibble with the numbers, but it seems clear (to me) that this is their decision process.
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