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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

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   101. rr Posted: November 17, 2007 at 05:17 PM (#2618448)
what did you do here , become english teachers after failing the toll collectors test on the pike ?


As an actual English teacher, I resent the fact that hangfire59 has gotten access to private information about my career and educational history.
   102. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: November 17, 2007 at 07:22 PM (#2618547)
It wasn't just that young man. My girls are a month old, and they make more sense than you do...


That's not really fair though Phil. Everyone knows the twins aren't ordinary 1-month-olds. They've got special powers.
   103. Nasty Nate Posted: November 17, 2007 at 07:55 PM (#2618574)
Toby thanks for #98. nice post
   104. Phil Coorey. Posted: November 18, 2007 at 08:18 AM (#2618945)
That's not really fair though Phil. Everyone knows the twins aren't ordinary 1-month-olds. They've got special powers.


Of course!

They are Beulah fans as well, already!
   105. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 18, 2007 at 10:49 AM (#2618954)

I have kids who run around the living room with their World Champs caps on. Their world is a world in which the Red Sox always win. It's a beautiful thing. Faith and hope? Optimism? Under my roof, absolutely.


They'll eventually learn the World sucks. It's never too early to instill the fear and loathing into the little buggers.


sorry guys , didnt realize this was such an english sensitive group . can I make it up with an extra credit assignment ? jeez , what did you do here , become english teachers after failing the toll collectors test on the pike ? I promise to do better on the mid-term .


ME NO SPEAK ENGRISH!!! ENGRISH SO HAHD!!! L AND R SOUNDS SO DIFFICURT!!
   106. Darren Posted: November 18, 2007 at 06:54 PM (#2619162)
Ladies and Gentlemen, give it up for Rosie O'Donnell.
   107. villageidiom Posted: November 19, 2007 at 01:19 PM (#2619780)
What I object to is the "lighten up you sad sack pantspisser" comments every time I write anything negative.
We're just worried about you - but we express it in a manly, rub-some-dirt-on-it kind of way.
   108. Darren Posted: November 20, 2007 at 03:31 AM (#2620826)
SG at RLYW shows why I think the ARod signing is such bad news for the Red Sox. According to his and Chone's projections, the Yankees will score between 911 and 944 runs in 2008, with ARod creating more than 110 of them. He pushes them from a good offense to a great one.
   109. covelli chris p Posted: November 20, 2007 at 03:40 AM (#2620843)
SG at RLYW shows why I think the ARod signing is such bad news for the Red Sox. According to his and Chone's projections, the Yankees will score between 911 and 944 runs in 2008, with ARod creating more than 110 of them. He pushes them from a good offense to a great one.

i never expected arod to sign elsewhere. if he had signed elsewhere it would have been great news for the red sox ... for all the reasons mr. sg may or may not show (i ahvn't clicked the link). as it stands, nothing has changed.
   110. covelli chris p Posted: November 20, 2007 at 03:46 AM (#2620850)
the other thing about the arod thing is that i just sort of expect the yankees to sign whichever big free agent they want. for instance, when they DIDN'T sign carlos beltran, i was suprised ... stuff like that. signing arod? THAT'S WHAT THE YANKEES DO!
   111. Valentine Posted: November 20, 2007 at 04:34 PM (#2621260)
Yes, exactly. Without ARod, the Yankees wouldn't make the playoffs in either 2007 or 2008. Not even close. With ARod they have an excellent offense. Still:

1) The Red Sox still have the better team, as the statistical forecasts will show in March.

2) Even if the Yankees win the division that doesn't keep us out of the playoffs.

3) The odds of actually meeting the Yankees in the ALCS is never greater than 1:3, even if we take it as a given that both teams will make the playoffs.

Signing ARod was great news for Yankees fans but largely irrelevant to the Red Sox. With any luck 2008 will give us another chance to make fun of the $200M losers.
   112. Valentine Posted: November 20, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2621348)
Ran a quick projection based on the CHONEs for our starting lineup. (A little premature to project the bench since I have no clue who will be sitting there.)

Red Sox starters: 0.282/0.370/0.458
Yankees starters: 0.284/0.373/0.460 (I used Giambi, not Betemit, and used the CHONE PT projections)

We should be able to keep pace with them offensively this year, and I definitely prefer our pitching.
   113. Darren Posted: November 21, 2007 at 01:59 AM (#2622084)
Signing ARod was great news for Yankees fans but largely irrelevant to the Red SoxWith any luck 2008 will give us another chance to make fun of the $200M losers


I still can't see it as irrelevant, but that's probably because I really value the Sox winning the division. But there are other considerations too: facing ARod 19 times/season, home field advantage in the playoffs, wanting the Yankees to go down in flames, etc.
   114. Joel W Posted: November 21, 2007 at 05:49 AM (#2622336)
"wanting the Yankees to go down in flames," I think is the reason I wanted him to leave the most. I really wanted them to miss the playoffs, or be third, or something. I wanted to see the Post explode about Jeter or Rivera or one of their golden boys at the coffee shop in the morning, and see the Mets take over the tabloids.

I still think the Chone projections you guys are giving are way too optimistic. This year the Yankees hit .293/.363/.463 and we're supposed to expect that either of these teams are going to be better than that? There is just too much optimism in the number of games that starters will play, especially for SG's Yankee projection. Looking at the Yankees' numbers from last year, it's amazing how healthy they were on the hitting side.
   115. Valentine Posted: November 21, 2007 at 12:59 PM (#2622388)
This year the Yankees hit .293/.363/.463 and we're supposed to expect that either of these teams are going to be better than that?

No, we're supposed to expect that the STARTERS on each team will be better than that. For the Yankees, that indicates a substantial decline from 2007. CHONE has the Red Sox starters matching their 2007 numbers pretty closely. I haven't looked carefully at the details of who is expected to improve and who is expected to decline, but it isn't projecting anything special for Ellsbury.

There is just too much optimism in the number of games that starters will play, especially for SG's Yankee projection.

Yes, I used to make that same error in my own PT projections ten years ago, which is why I cited averages for the starting lineup rather than something more comprehensive. The CHONE projections are intended to take an optimistic view on the PT, so don't fault that conscious choice. SG also fails to account for a lower OBP from the Yankees cutting into the number of PA. He ought to be matching the number of outs available, not the number of PA. My best guess right now is that both teams will end up in the 850 to 900 run range. When you have an older team and you make no major additions in a given year, you should expect decline.
   116. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 25, 2007 at 10:42 AM (#2624544)
I have to ask this:

If you don't project for playing time, how can you project the effects of playing time on the projections? The amount of playing time a player receives has to have SOME impact on his projections/stats.
   117. Valentine Posted: November 25, 2007 at 02:11 PM (#2624569)
Wok, are you asking me? Or another poster?

You do have to project playing time, of course, when estimating team run scoring. It's just a lot of work to get it right. SG was wildly optimistic in his projections (600 PA for every one of the Yankees starters except at first base). I didn't care enough to put in the half hour necessary to come up with something sensible, especially since the composition of the bench has yet to be determined. As mentioned before, the CHONE projection of PT is intended to be optimistic. The PECOTAs take a more cautious view of playing time, at least until BP rewrites them for their fantasy projections, but they aren't available yet.

Playing time probably has an impact on a player's averages, particularly if used in a platoon role, but this is a "second order" effect and ultimately makes less of a difference on a team's totals than you might think.
   118. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 25, 2007 at 02:27 PM (#2624571)
The CHONE projections are definitely too optimistic.
   119. villageidiom Posted: November 25, 2007 at 06:48 PM (#2624714)
And you call yourself an optimist. Hmph.
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