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1. Norcan
Posted: June 26, 2006 at 11:17 AM (#2076183)
I went into the archives of mlb.tv and saw Johnson's most recent game which was against the Cubs and if this game was an exemplification of his season at all, then I think he has a real good chance to be decent, In other words, to be the pitcher he's been the past for the few seasons. Against the Cubs he was victimized by some bad luck--bad hops that led to an error, a broken bat that led to a hit--but also, Cleveland's average to below average defense didn't him help any either. There was a ball that snuck through a hole that I've seen Gonzalez make a play on going to his right many times and another which Youkilis might have made a diving grab on. There was a ball hit into the right field corner that should have been only a double but which Eduardo Perez bobbled into a triple--and no error was called. With a good defense mitigating the extra bases and extra outs that doomed Johnson against the cubs, he could have been okay.
All in all, Johnson wasn't great; he allowed some pretty hard hit balls and he allowed plenty of balls into play but with a better defense, the results could've have been much better. The results the Red Sox, as constructed, could get from him could be fairly decent.
With the wild card likely to come from the Central, I thought it interesting to compare the win probability added figures from FanGraphs from the three contenders for the AL East:
So the Sox have been the best offensive team in the East, which was surprising until I thought of the injuries to Sheff and Matsui, though the Sox have gotten very little from Crisp as well. Further, this shows why the fact that the rotation has solidified for the Sox of late is having such an effect. That has been really the Sox only weakness this year (though you can make an argument for the back end of the pen as well).
One other interesting thing I noticed: ARod is hitting .287/.399/.510 and yet has a WPA of only 14%.
3. PJ Martinez
Posted: June 26, 2006 at 03:21 PM (#2076316)
"...the Sox have been the best offensive team in the East..."
I'm not familiar with the numbers you've provided. What do they mean? By a more traditional measure, the Yankees lead: 5.64 R/PG, vs. 5.51 for the Red Sox (the Yanks have also allowed 6 fewer runs, and played one more game). Of course, I'd be happy to find out that the Sox offense is actually better, but I'm just not following how those numbers show that.
WPA tries to measure how much a particular player (or group) has affected the outcome of games by taking the difference in the team's win probability before and after an event from a particular player. For example Big Papi got quite a few points for hitting a walk-off homer the other day because he moved the Sox win probability to 100% from whatever it was before he came up.
The idea behind a similar runs per game figure with a difference in WPA would indicate the the Sox runs have come at more important times, when they increase the win probability more. I guess to put it a different way, you could say that the Sox hitters have been more valuable than the Yanks.
5. Josh
Posted: June 26, 2006 at 04:09 PM (#2076353)
Instead of reading that to say that the RS have had the best offense, my first inclination is to read the opposite: they've had the worst offense, but one that has had timely hits. If the RS score 12 runs in the first 3 innings, then their WPA is a lot less interesting. A more wholistic (though, perhaps less descriptive) measurement of offense is found in EqA:
RS : .286
NYY: .284
BJs: .283
I don't think the difference in EqA is really worth thinking about. So, I suppose the RS haven't had a better or worse offense -- just a timely one. I'll take timely.
6. PJ Martinez
Posted: June 26, 2006 at 04:30 PM (#2076367)
Thanks for the explanation. I've seen WPA used elsewhere, but I'd never seen a team evaluation. Adding the EqA numbers to the mix, it seems that the apparent advantage the Yankees have on offense thus far is negligible at best. But I gather their pitching has still been superior thus far?
7. Sam M.
Posted: June 26, 2006 at 04:53 PM (#2076385)
Bangin’ on all cylinders
The Red Sox have won 8 in a row, outscoring their opponents 60-25 in that span.
As U-2 and B.B. King once said, "That was the day before love came to town." But please, go ahead and make it nine in a row before you face the only National League opposition worth facing. We'll wait.
8. villageidiom
Posted: June 26, 2006 at 09:47 PM (#2076831)
But please, go ahead and make it nine in a row before you face the only National League opposition worth facing. We'll wait.
The only NL opposition worth facing is just another day for an AL team.
9. Sam M.
Posted: June 26, 2006 at 10:40 PM (#2076924)
The only NL opposition worth facing is just another day for an AL team.
Perhaps. But something tells me Wednesday night, at least, is not going to be "just another day" at Fenway.
10. Nasty Nate
Posted: June 26, 2006 at 11:10 PM (#2076951)
... speaking of David Ortiz being Jesus, or perhaps Jesus' cooler older brother, I just watched the fan-shot in-Fenway video of the last play of Game 5 (linked to in Bill Simmons' column). A little tear welled up in my eye as I got the tingles.
I'm looking forward to the Mets series, if only because it means non-Sox/Yankees, non-extra innings chatters that go more than 100 posts. i'll be reading those chatters the day after (kids, new house, etc.), but i'll enjoy them nonetheless.
Oh, and that particular U2 song is one of the worst songs in the history of music. Thank God B.B. redeemed it when he made it part of his live set.
12. Dave Cyprian
Posted: June 26, 2006 at 11:33 PM (#2076997)
Oh boy I'm sure you are all as thoroughly impressed with the National League after the last week as I am. Sure it would be nice to have Bronson on the staff, but you have to wonder what his ERA would be. Only the Mets left to possibly make some noise.
Thanks for jinxing Papelbon Darren (haha). Of course Ortiz is far beyond cursing. Robinson Cano may be headed for the DL. Wily Mo should be back soon, and will be starting at 1st in Pawtucket, good move. Like I predicted a little while ago, this whole interleague thing is shining some bright sunlight down on Fenway.
13. PJ Martinez
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 12:05 AM (#2077027)
Small defense of Tito bringing in Seanez today: that's a pretty dreadful situation for a young pitcher. Bases loaded, no outs. Sure, it's 6-0, but that's why it should be safe to bring in Seanez. For all the grief he gets, I think Francona's moves were defensible.
Yeah, the NL sucks. But the Mets are good. This is the most exciting non-Yankees June series that I can remember.
I'm back in the country tomorrow, so the Red Sox are no longer guaranteed to win. Which is too bad, I think. These winning streaks are awesome, but it's always a little sad that I don't get to see it.
And just think of what Titus Flavius would say ...
17. Darren
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 01:13 AM (#2077109)
I just don't know what to say about Papi. I have never seen anything like what he's done. It just defies belief, and it just keeps happening.
I'll be looking forward to the Red Sox battering Pedro's slop on Wednesday night. Hey Petey, Jamie Moyer called, he wants his fastball back! Pedro goes 4.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K. Unfortunately, Reyes will probably go 11-11 with 24 steals, as is his usual of late.
18. Darren
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 01:43 AM (#2077169)
According to some articles linked on SOSH, the Sox are offering Alvarez for Shealy. Good move if it works, I think. Shealy's old for a prospect, but he can certainly hit. He'd be good depth at the least.
19. Darren
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 01:50 AM (#2077185)
I just looked at game chatter, and there amongst the jovial posts about Ortiz's superheroism and Trupiano's idiocy (what a doofus) are taunts from Sam M about the upcoming series with the Mets. 'Play time is over, etc...' Sam, you are really itching for a fight, eh? Well, bring it on tough guy. :)
20. Sam M.
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 01:51 AM (#2077187)
Hey Petey, Jamie Moyer called, he wants his fastball back! Pedro goes 4.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K.
You guys planning on acquiring Reyes, Beltran, Wright, and Delgado between now and Wednesday? Because those are the only hitters in the Boston metropolitan area who have a chance of doing that to Pedro. Your ragamuffin band of NL flops (Lowell, Loretta), second-rate former prospects (Youkilis), and a couple of actual hitters (Manny and Papi)? Not. Oh, they're fine to take care of George's Evil Empire. The Sox are useful that way. I even appreciate the sweep of the Phillies; nicely done.
But you want to trash talk Pedro? Game on.
21. JC in DC
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 02:04 AM (#2077219)
God, I'd DEFINITELY root for the Mets, Sam. Kick their asses, Wright et al!!!
22. Darren
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 02:12 AM (#2077241)
Jose Reyes? The guy who Alex Gonzalez has matched offensively in 04 and 05? Delgado--the guy who Manny has outhit every year of their career practically? You know what's great about Delgado? He costs 48 times what Mike Jacobs costs, is nine years older, and can't outhit him. Oh and *cough*Petit*cough.
How can you expect to win when Super Batman Cookie Monster is on our side? It must be an awful feeling.
23. Darren
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 02:14 AM (#2077245)
God, I'd DEFINITELY root for the Mets, Sam. Kick their asses, Wright et al!!!
It's the only hope you've got baby!
24. JC in DC
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 02:15 AM (#2077249)
It's the only hope you've got baby!
We're only 2 out, and you're banging (?) on all cylinders. I like our chances.
25. Darren
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 02:18 AM (#2077252)
Yeah, you're only 2 out but we've got Jason Johnson now! GAME OVER!
This is (in my limited experience) the most polite trash talking I've ever come across. I'll give it a whirl.
I hope for your sake that the decision doesn't come down to the ninth, because, and correct me if I'm wrong, the closing pitcher for our nine bests yours in earned run average by almost two full points left of the decimal!
27. Darren
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 02:21 AM (#2077258)
Oh no he didn't, he did not just say 'left of the decimal.' Snap, he did!
28. JC in DC
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 02:21 AM (#2077259)
I hope for your sake that the decision doesn't come down to the ninth, because, and correct me if I'm wrong, the closing pitcher for our nine bests yours in earned run average by almost two full points left of the decimal!
LOL
29. Sam M.
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 02:22 AM (#2077261)
Jose Reyes? The guy who Alex Gonzalez has matched offensively in 04 and 05? Delgado--the guy who Manny has outhit every year of their career practically? You know what's great about Delgado? He costs 48 times what Mike Jacobs costs, is nine years older, and can't outhit him. Oh and *cough*Petit*cough.
Reyes: the guy with the .856 OPS -- yeah, him. Gonzalez . . . looking . . . oh, yes: .661. Nice, in Fenway. You must just be loving that, Darren. I know I did when Rey Ordonez was doing it.
And do you really want to compare salaries? What are you guys paying Lowell (OPS: .869) compared to what we're paying Wright (highest VORP in all of baseball, 1.009 OPS)? Mike Jacobs? That's the best you got -- Mike Jacobs??? Wow. Keep focus here, buddy. It's Red Sox/Mets. You don't see me bringing up Hanley Ramirez, do you??? Ahem . . . .
Mets fan should send a thank you card to the Phils for giving the Bosox Bullpen a nice work out yesterday (actually, still today where I am).
Of course, with Lester going tomorrow, maybe you won't need the bullpen -- until the 5th inning.
34. J. Cross
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 07:45 AM (#2077404)
I'm really looking forward to this series.
Pitching Matchups:
Tuesday: Lester (L) v. Soler (R)
Wednesday: Beckett (R) v. Pedro (R)
Thursday: Schilling (R) v. Glavine (L)
So, it seems to me that the Mets should wait to activate Floyd and send down Milledge until after Tuesday's game. On Tuesday we could play Milledge and Nady in the corners, Woodward at 2B and DH Franco (or better yet, DH Delgado and play Franco at first) to get most of the lefties out of there. In the minors this year lefties had a measely .394 OPS agasint Lester but righties hit a respectable .267/.358/.380 (.738 OPS) against him. I think he'll have trouble with a lineup where he only gets to face one lefty in Delgado.
35. Dr. Vaux
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 08:27 AM (#2077409)
This should be a pretty high-scoring series. The Red Sox will tag Soler tomorrow; I saw him against the Reds in his last start, and his stuff looked pretty pedestrian. It depends what the Mets can do against Lester, which is probably also a fair amount.
Beckett doesn't stand a chance on Wednesday, while Glavine is equally doomed on Thursday. So it looks like the Red Sox will take 2 out of 3 ugly games.
I was at a Nats-Mets game earlier this year, and the funniest heckle I heard, ever, was a guy who yelled at Delgado saying "Hey, Delgado, that's the loosest Under Armor shirt I've ever seen!" It was so lame, and yet, it got a huge glare from Carlos. So,
Hey, Sam M, that's the loosest Under Armor shirt I've ever seen!"
Take that.
DB
PS: Mr. Met looks like an onion.
43. Dave Cyprian
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 03:01 PM (#2077563)
Mets fans, your talking up this series like its the first major league club the Mets have played all year (and it is), and yet your running out two old guys with nothing left and a young gun who never had it in the first place. Good luck.
44. Sam M.
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 03:41 PM (#2077596)
I'll see your CHB, and raise you a Lupica.
Lupica at least has the virtue of annoying Yankee fans. The universe is still searching for the one thing CHB brings to the table.
your running out two old guys with nothing left and a young gun who never had it in the first place. Good luck.
With all the holes in your line-up, that's all we need to bring. Alex Gonzalez? Sweet Loretta Modern? Mike "If You Want Beckett You Have to Take Him, Too" Lowell? Sounds to me like we could have used El Duque against these guys and done OK. Hell, maybe even Lima Time.
45. J. Cross
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 04:54 PM (#2077669)
I don't think Mets fans are talking up this series becasue of the quality of the Sox team. I think we just have good memories of Mets-Sox series. I've been watching the DVD's of the '86 World Series this week. I still tear up a bit when that wild pitch flies under Mookie Wilson.
46. Sam M.
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 05:04 PM (#2077676)
I still tear up a bit when that wild pitch flies under Mookie Wilson.
I don't know, J. Cross. I know they scored it a WP. But I always kind of thought it might really have been a PB on Gedman.
What do you think, Sox fans? WPor PB?
47. PJ Martinez
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 05:22 PM (#2077708)
You know, the Mets would almost have a chance at beating the Sox in the Series this year, except for two little words...
Scott Kazmir.
Too bad you blew it. We'll take it in 5 or 6 games, and a little passed ball or wild pitch won't make the difference this time.
48. J. Cross
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 05:28 PM (#2077723)
Gedman definitley should have caught it.
Also, I think people sometimes forget that before Knight's single he hit a slow roller down the third base line that Boggs let roll foul. Knight was a slow runner. Boggs could have just charged that and thrown Knight out at first.
49. Dizzypaco
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 05:37 PM (#2077733)
Also, I think people sometimes forget that before Knight's single he hit a slow roller down the third base line that Boggs let roll foul. Knight was a slow runner. Boggs could have just charged that and thrown Knight out at first.
I have to watch it again, but from what I understand, he made the right decision. It would have been difficult to get even a slow runner with that ball, so he would have been taking a pretty big chance. The announcer said Boggs would have had no chance to throw him out. And if Knight's safe at first, the go ahead run is on first base.
50. Chip
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 05:55 PM (#2077754)
With all the holes in your line-up, that's all we need to bring. Alex Gonzalez? Sweet Loretta Modern? Mike "If You Want Beckett You Have to Take Him, Too" Lowell? Sounds to me like we could have used El Duque against these guys and done OK. Hell, maybe even Lima Time.
Hey, there are holes, and then there are strategically damaging holes. At least Tito buries the worst ones at the bottom of the order. It's not like he regularly bats a .316 OBP sinkhole like LoDuca ahead of Wright and Delgado!
51. J. Cross
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 05:58 PM (#2077757)
Perhaps you're right. Watching it again just now it was dribbling pretty slowly. He would certainly have needed to bare hand it and whip it over there. Too risky especially considering that the count would be 0 and 2 on Knight otherwise. should have been easy to finish him off from there.
52. J. Cross
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 06:00 PM (#2077763)
At least Tito buries the worst ones at the bottom of the order. It's not like he regularly bats a .316 OBP sinkhole like LoDuca ahead of Wright and Delgado!
On the other hand, we don't take our weak hitting catcher and name him team captain.
53. Dizzypaco
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 06:10 PM (#2077774)
On the other hand, we don't take our weak hitting catcher and name him team captain.
Either did we. Doug Mirabelli is not the team captain.
54. J. Cross
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 10:23 PM (#2078002)
Varitek's number so far this season aren't very far from Lo Duca's. Both player get extra points for grittiness.
55. Flynn
Posted: June 27, 2006 at 10:27 PM (#2078006)
I don't where to put this, but Gammons just went into surgery after having a brain aneurysm.
57. Nasty Nate
Posted: June 28, 2006 at 01:00 PM (#2079183)
...speaking of 10 game winning streaks, I remember going to Fenway for win # 10 in their streak in Aug/Sep 2004 (http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B09030BOS2004.htm).
Afterwards, I was exuberant on a train at Park street and as the train pulled away I signaled with all 5 fingers on each hand through the window at an old guy on the platform. He nodded and smiled.
58. covelli chris p
Posted: June 28, 2006 at 02:18 PM (#2079226)
I remember going to Fenway for win # 10 in their streak in Aug/Sep 2004 (http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B09030BOS2004.htm).
i was at fenway for loss #1 the next day. aside from a grand slam off ron mahay, that sucked.
59. Dave Cyprian
Posted: June 28, 2006 at 03:16 PM (#2079278)
I do believe the doubters need to understand the awesome and magnanimous power of Kyle Synder on one's roster. 10 straight since freeing him from the strangling grip of the Royals.
60. scotto
Posted: June 28, 2006 at 03:46 PM (#2079291)
When I see the thread title I can't help but think of Phil Coorey's immortal "Bangin' like a dunny door" comment.
Pretty sweet win last night. Good to see Alex Gonzalez, Sweet Loretta Modern and Mike "If You Want Beckett You Have to Take Him, Too" Lowell make substantial contributions.
That said, I look forward to tonight's game. That whole thing with Pedro's ovation made me a little misty, and I still have a little lump in my throat thinking about it.
61. ericr
Posted: June 29, 2006 at 02:08 AM (#2080514)
J.Cross, grittiness isn't Varitek's only intangible. You're forgetting his leadership, stick-to-it-iveness, and the Hockey-style C he wears so proud.
62. Xander
Posted: June 29, 2006 at 02:17 AM (#2080522)
Good show by the Mets so far. Really the cream of the crop in the NL.
7. Sam M. Posted: June 26, 2006 at 12:53 PM (#2076385)
Bangin’ on all cylinders
The Red Sox have won 8 in a row, outscoring their opponents 60-25 in that span.
As U-2 and B.B. King once said, "That was the day before love came to town." But please, go ahead and make it nine in a row before you face the only National League opposition worth facing. We'll wait.
You're right, Boston sure wasn't very good. But it was only three games. Maybe they are better this season.
Try again, sparky. You're forgetting something about AL teams, you know, that they play each other, and that their ALDS opponent was no surprise? If White Sox "fans" had been paying attention, they'd have seen the Red Sox during the regular season against their own team.
68. tfbg9
Posted: June 29, 2006 at 02:48 PM (#2080849)
The White Sox are good, the Red Sox are good, if they play its more or less down to randomness.
69. covelli chris p
Posted: June 29, 2006 at 03:08 PM (#2080869)
the white sox were clearly a better team at the end of last year. wakefield and wells were the only starters that didn't suck and papelbon and timlin were the only decent relievers. our center fielder and shortstop were toast but were still batting 1st and 2nd. yeah, we're much better than we were last october.
"You're forgetting something about AL teams, you know, that they play each other, and that their ALDS opponent was no surprise?"
Boston sure LOOKED surprised.
"If White Sox "fans" had been paying attention, they'd have seen the Red Sox during the regular season against their own team."
We did. Saw them during the regular season, saw them during the post-season. Overall the White Sox went 6-4 against them, I believe. Not sure of your point, unless it's to say that over the long term the '05 Red Sox would be more likely to win 40% of their games against the '05 White Sox than to win 0% of their games.
"The White Sox are good, the Red Sox are good, if they play its more or less down to randomness."
I know the White Sox are good, as I follow them pretty closely. I don't pay much attention to the Red Sox -- I'll take your word for it if you say they're good.
It either always comes down to randomness in a short series, or it never does. You don't get to pick and choose. The playoffs aren't evidence of your team's greatness when they win it all one year and then evidence of a crapshoot when you are swept in the first round the next. The same is true of a short series -- either it always means something (the Red Sox are better than the Mets AND the Twins are better than the Red Sox), or it never does. I realize we're all fans of our respective teams, but a little consistency is sometimes nice.
71. PJ Martinez
Posted: June 29, 2006 at 03:37 PM (#2080893)
Is anyone here arguing that the White Sox weren't the better team in October of last year?
They're probably the better team this year, too. In any case, it'll be fun to see them against each other soon.
72. Dizzypaco
Posted: June 29, 2006 at 03:48 PM (#2080906)
Is anyone here arguing that the White Sox weren't the better team in October of last year?
Well the White Sox won more games in October last year than the Red Sox, so I suppose they were the better team by definition. But if you mean if they played each other 100 times, would the White Sox have won the overwhelming majority? No, I don't agree. I think the Red Sox and White Sox were about equal last year, are about equal this year, and who wins a short series is largely random.
I've been pretty consistent on the randomness thing.
Is anyone here arguing that the White Sox weren't the better team in October of last year?
Not that I know of. Just some guy making a comment irrelevant in any way to the thread at hand.
So, back to the thread -- I'm going to guess that the Mets win tonight (Milledge will figure out the Wall and Schilling goes 5 because the Mets foul off 100 pitches) and then roll over the Yankees. I think the latter has to run out of steam sooner rather than later given their lineup woes and the Mets realyl are a good team. I believe they are way better than we've seen the last 2 nights (I saw them play the Nats and they looked awesome. It was like homerun derby at RFK). How do the starters match up?
DB
74. Sam M.
Posted: June 29, 2006 at 04:11 PM (#2080930)
The last two games have to hurt, Sam.
'taint been fun, that's for sure. I just wish the Mets had been playing the baseball we've played all year, instead of vapor locking on so many plays. Pedro not getting the easy double play on the Ortiz come-backer; Milledge being just totally intimidated by the Green Monster. To play such crappy ball when you need your A game just sucks.
The only silver lining: they know they can't play that way against Boston, period. They will get crushed. Better to find it out now than later.
One last thing. There was another Mets' team that lost the first two to a very good Red Sox squad, and didn't look very good in the process. They came back. I remain confident this team has some glory in its future, too.
WDTWT - are you the former Ken E. Bunkport? You remind me greatly of him in argument and writing style. He was a White Sox fan, too, IIRC.
1) Now you know how White Sox fans felt in last year's ALDS. "That's all there is?"
2) God that's weak.
3) You're right, Boston sure wasn't very good. But it was only three games. Maybe they are better this season.
I feel that you miss the point. The point is that your taunt bore little weight, greatly because Sox fans don't really care very much about the other Sox. I was happy when the other Sox won the world series, and I really loved the team Williams put together, and I was expecting them to beat up on a weakened Sox team in the ALDS and not overly put out at the result. If you're going to try to lay in the taunts in such a context, you need a bit more than a mere reference to the series.
76. Raskolnikov
Posted: June 29, 2006 at 05:35 PM (#2081027)
I'm going to guess that the Mets win tonight (Milledge will figure out the Wall
Willie would be an idiot to put Milledge out in LF again tonight. At the very least, he flips Chavez and Milledge in the OF so that the latter doesn't have to contend with the Monster. Or Nady will play LF.
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1. Norcan Posted: June 26, 2006 at 11:17 AM (#2076183)All in all, Johnson wasn't great; he allowed some pretty hard hit balls and he allowed plenty of balls into play but with a better defense, the results could've have been much better. The results the Red Sox, as constructed, could get from him could be fairly decent.
Sox: Hitters - 574% Starters: -53% Pen: 278% Total: 799%
Yanks: Hitters - 479% Starters: -2% Pen: 73% Total: 650%
Jays: Hitters - 341% Starters: -185% Pen 243% Total: 399%
So the Sox have been the best offensive team in the East, which was surprising until I thought of the injuries to Sheff and Matsui, though the Sox have gotten very little from Crisp as well. Further, this shows why the fact that the rotation has solidified for the Sox of late is having such an effect. That has been really the Sox only weakness this year (though you can make an argument for the back end of the pen as well).
One other interesting thing I noticed: ARod is hitting .287/.399/.510 and yet has a WPA of only 14%.
I'm not familiar with the numbers you've provided. What do they mean? By a more traditional measure, the Yankees lead: 5.64 R/PG, vs. 5.51 for the Red Sox (the Yanks have also allowed 6 fewer runs, and played one more game). Of course, I'd be happy to find out that the Sox offense is actually better, but I'm just not following how those numbers show that.
The idea behind a similar runs per game figure with a difference in WPA would indicate the the Sox runs have come at more important times, when they increase the win probability more. I guess to put it a different way, you could say that the Sox hitters have been more valuable than the Yanks.
I don't think the difference in EqA is really worth thinking about. So, I suppose the RS haven't had a better or worse offense -- just a timely one. I'll take timely.
The Red Sox have won 8 in a row, outscoring their opponents 60-25 in that span.
As U-2 and B.B. King once said, "That was the day before love came to town." But please, go ahead and make it nine in a row before you face the only National League opposition worth facing. We'll wait.
The only NL opposition worth facing is just another day for an AL team.
Perhaps. But something tells me Wednesday night, at least, is not going to be "just another day" at Fenway.
I'm looking forward to the Mets series, if only because it means non-Sox/Yankees, non-extra innings chatters that go more than 100 posts. i'll be reading those chatters the day after (kids, new house, etc.), but i'll enjoy them nonetheless.
Oh, and that particular U2 song is one of the worst songs in the history of music. Thank God B.B. redeemed it when he made it part of his live set.
Thanks for jinxing Papelbon Darren (haha). Of course Ortiz is far beyond cursing. Robinson Cano may be headed for the DL. Wily Mo should be back soon, and will be starting at 1st in Pawtucket, good move. Like I predicted a little while ago, this whole interleague thing is shining some bright sunlight down on Fenway.
Yeah, the NL sucks. But the Mets are good. This is the most exciting non-Yankees June series that I can remember.
why not Timlin?
Two frickin' Papi walk-offs? Jesus.
And just think of what Titus Flavius would say ...
I'll be looking forward to the Red Sox battering Pedro's slop on Wednesday night. Hey Petey, Jamie Moyer called, he wants his fastball back! Pedro goes 4.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K. Unfortunately, Reyes will probably go 11-11 with 24 steals, as is his usual of late.
You guys planning on acquiring Reyes, Beltran, Wright, and Delgado between now and Wednesday? Because those are the only hitters in the Boston metropolitan area who have a chance of doing that to Pedro. Your ragamuffin band of NL flops (Lowell, Loretta), second-rate former prospects (Youkilis), and a couple of actual hitters (Manny and Papi)? Not. Oh, they're fine to take care of George's Evil Empire. The Sox are useful that way. I even appreciate the sweep of the Phillies; nicely done.
But you want to trash talk Pedro? Game on.
How can you expect to win when Super Batman Cookie Monster is on our side? It must be an awful feeling.
It's the only hope you've got baby!
We're only 2 out, and you're banging (?) on all cylinders. I like our chances.
I hope for your sake that the decision doesn't come down to the ninth, because, and correct me if I'm wrong, the closing pitcher for our nine bests yours in earned run average by almost two full points left of the decimal!
LOL
Reyes: the guy with the .856 OPS -- yeah, him. Gonzalez . . . looking . . . oh, yes: .661. Nice, in Fenway. You must just be loving that, Darren. I know I did when Rey Ordonez was doing it.
And do you really want to compare salaries? What are you guys paying Lowell (OPS: .869) compared to what we're paying Wright (highest VORP in all of baseball, 1.009 OPS)? Mike Jacobs? That's the best you got -- Mike Jacobs??? Wow. Keep focus here, buddy. It's Red Sox/Mets. You don't see me bringing up Hanley Ramirez, do you??? Ahem . . . .
This is fun! ;-)
Hey Beckett, John Wasdin called and he wants his schtick back.
And while both Steve Trachsel and Clement are torture to watch, at least Trachsel is only making 2.5 million and isn't owed 10 million next year.
PWN3D!
The defense rests.
I'll give this a whirl too:
Rob Base doesn't cheer for my team.
Of course, with Lester going tomorrow, maybe you won't need the bullpen -- until the 5th inning.
Pitching Matchups:
Tuesday: Lester (L) v. Soler (R)
Wednesday: Beckett (R) v. Pedro (R)
Thursday: Schilling (R) v. Glavine (L)
So, it seems to me that the Mets should wait to activate Floyd and send down Milledge until after Tuesday's game. On Tuesday we could play Milledge and Nady in the corners, Woodward at 2B and DH Franco (or better yet, DH Delgado and play Franco at first) to get most of the lefties out of there. In the minors this year lefties had a measely .394 OPS agasint Lester but righties hit a respectable .267/.358/.380 (.738 OPS) against him. I think he'll have trouble with a lineup where he only gets to face one lefty in Delgado.
Beckett doesn't stand a chance on Wednesday, while Glavine is equally doomed on Thursday. So it looks like the Red Sox will take 2 out of 3 ugly games.
Dan Shaughnessy doesn't write about my team.
zing!
As if I have a bloody choice in the matter. *grumble*
Hey, Sam M, that's the loosest Under Armor shirt I've ever seen!"
Take that.
DB
PS: Mr. Met looks like an onion.
Sox fans, some reason for optimism: Only one team in the American League, after all, has a better record at their home park than the residents of Fenway Park. No team in the American League, meanwhile, has more home games remaining this year.
Lupica at least has the virtue of annoying Yankee fans. The universe is still searching for the one thing CHB brings to the table.
your running out two old guys with nothing left and a young gun who never had it in the first place. Good luck.
With all the holes in your line-up, that's all we need to bring. Alex Gonzalez? Sweet Loretta Modern? Mike "If You Want Beckett You Have to Take Him, Too" Lowell? Sounds to me like we could have used El Duque against these guys and done OK. Hell, maybe even Lima Time.
I don't know, J. Cross. I know they scored it a WP. But I always kind of thought it might really have been a PB on Gedman.
What do you think, Sox fans? WPor PB?
Scott Kazmir.
Too bad you blew it. We'll take it in 5 or 6 games, and a little passed ball or wild pitch won't make the difference this time.
Also, I think people sometimes forget that before Knight's single he hit a slow roller down the third base line that Boggs let roll foul. Knight was a slow runner. Boggs could have just charged that and thrown Knight out at first.
I have to watch it again, but from what I understand, he made the right decision. It would have been difficult to get even a slow runner with that ball, so he would have been taking a pretty big chance. The announcer said Boggs would have had no chance to throw him out. And if Knight's safe at first, the go ahead run is on first base.
Hey, there are holes, and then there are strategically damaging holes. At least Tito buries the worst ones at the bottom of the order. It's not like he regularly bats a .316 OBP sinkhole like LoDuca ahead of Wright and Delgado!
On the other hand, we don't take our weak hitting catcher and name him team captain.
Either did we. Doug Mirabelli is not the team captain.
Afterwards, I was exuberant on a train at Park street and as the train pulled away I signaled with all 5 fingers on each hand through the window at an old guy on the platform. He nodded and smiled.
i was at fenway for loss #1 the next day. aside from a grand slam off ron mahay, that sucked.
Pretty sweet win last night. Good to see Alex Gonzalez, Sweet Loretta Modern and Mike "If You Want Beckett You Have to Take Him, Too" Lowell make substantial contributions.
That said, I look forward to tonight's game. That whole thing with Pedro's ovation made me a little misty, and I still have a little lump in my throat thinking about it.
Now you know how White Sox fans felt in last year's ALDS. "That's all there is?"
The last two games have to hurt, Sam.
God that's weak.
You're right, Boston sure wasn't very good. But it was only three games. Maybe they are better this season.
Try again, sparky. You're forgetting something about AL teams, you know, that they play each other, and that their ALDS opponent was no surprise? If White Sox "fans" had been paying attention, they'd have seen the Red Sox during the regular season against their own team.
Boston sure LOOKED surprised.
"If White Sox "fans" had been paying attention, they'd have seen the Red Sox during the regular season against their own team."
We did. Saw them during the regular season, saw them during the post-season. Overall the White Sox went 6-4 against them, I believe. Not sure of your point, unless it's to say that over the long term the '05 Red Sox would be more likely to win 40% of their games against the '05 White Sox than to win 0% of their games.
"The White Sox are good, the Red Sox are good, if they play its more or less down to randomness."
I know the White Sox are good, as I follow them pretty closely. I don't pay much attention to the Red Sox -- I'll take your word for it if you say they're good.
It either always comes down to randomness in a short series, or it never does. You don't get to pick and choose. The playoffs aren't evidence of your team's greatness when they win it all one year and then evidence of a crapshoot when you are swept in the first round the next. The same is true of a short series -- either it always means something (the Red Sox are better than the Mets AND the Twins are better than the Red Sox), or it never does. I realize we're all fans of our respective teams, but a little consistency is sometimes nice.
They're probably the better team this year, too. In any case, it'll be fun to see them against each other soon.
Well the White Sox won more games in October last year than the Red Sox, so I suppose they were the better team by definition. But if you mean if they played each other 100 times, would the White Sox have won the overwhelming majority? No, I don't agree. I think the Red Sox and White Sox were about equal last year, are about equal this year, and who wins a short series is largely random.
I've been pretty consistent on the randomness thing.
Not that I know of. Just some guy making a comment irrelevant in any way to the thread at hand.
So, back to the thread -- I'm going to guess that the Mets win tonight (Milledge will figure out the Wall and Schilling goes 5 because the Mets foul off 100 pitches) and then roll over the Yankees. I think the latter has to run out of steam sooner rather than later given their lineup woes and the Mets realyl are a good team. I believe they are way better than we've seen the last 2 nights (I saw them play the Nats and they looked awesome. It was like homerun derby at RFK). How do the starters match up?
DB
'taint been fun, that's for sure. I just wish the Mets had been playing the baseball we've played all year, instead of vapor locking on so many plays. Pedro not getting the easy double play on the Ortiz come-backer; Milledge being just totally intimidated by the Green Monster. To play such crappy ball when you need your A game just sucks.
The only silver lining: they know they can't play that way against Boston, period. They will get crushed. Better to find it out now than later.
One last thing. There was another Mets' team that lost the first two to a very good Red Sox squad, and didn't look very good in the process. They came back. I remain confident this team has some glory in its future, too.
Willie would be an idiot to put Milledge out in LF again tonight. At the very least, he flips Chavez and Milledge in the OF so that the latter doesn't have to contend with the Monster. Or Nady will play LF.
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