Benny’s Gonna Jet?

Thing I said previously.

OUTFIELD: The big question in the outfield is Andrew Benintendi. It’s pretty clear that ZiPS isn’t too bothered by 14 bad games during a pandemic and has Benny going back to his 2019 form for better or for worse. For the Sox to move back into contention Benintendi at least splitting the difference between 2018 and 2019 would be a big boost.

Thing vi said in response today;

Seeing reports that a trade of Benintendi is… I don’t know about “imminent”, but reportedly multiple teams are interested and negotiating with Boston.

Jose’s comment, spun a different way - maybe even different than he’d been intending - is that returning to 2019 form isn’t good enough. They need something closer to 2018. The acquisition of Renfroe means that they have someone who is projected to perform around what one should realistically expect from Benintendi, while the latter’s record pre-2019 suggests substantial upside that might be more attractive in trade. I hope that Boston keeps Benintendi AND he returns to 2018 form, but (a) I don’t think both will happen, and (b) this roster needs more than hope.

I have too much to offer on this to respond in the thread, but not enough probably for a full on post here.  I haven’t posted in a bit (nearly a month) so what the hell, let’s get something up as Spring Training looms (hopefully).

Regarding Benintendi I think the biggest issue that vi correctly touches on is that I think we have moved from “willing to talk” to “actively discussing” when it comes to trading Benintendi.  Right or wrong the smoke is sufficient to think a trade is likely at this point.  So to stick with vi for a moment I’ll address his comment.  I wasn’t particularly intending to say that a return to 2019 form isn’t enough but that is true.  The Sox need better from Benintendi.  In 2019 he was a 1.8 WAR player, in 2018 he was 4.5 WAR.  Somewhere in that range would be sufficient and if you put the range at 2.5-3.5 I’d take that bet.  I think vi was saying that expecting him to return to 2018 levels is unrealistic and on that I agree but I do think he can be better than he was in 2019.  One thing about Benintendi I have read a lot this year is the concerns about his foot speed the last two years.  Recognizing that Alex Cora was here for the first of those two years I believe that there is a reasonable chance Benny takes steps to address this and that alone is the impetus to returning to the player he was.

With all that said the part of this I don’t grasp is what the trade market is or should be for Andrew Benintendi.  I’ve long felt that the people who thought he was a future star were overselling him but now with the last couple of years I think a lot of people are bailing on him too hard.  As I said I think he’s a 2.5-3.5 WAR player amd if you go back to 2019 that would get you Kevin Kiermayer on the low end (2.4) and Jorge Soler (3.6) on the high end.  I don’t think that’s any kind of a problem for the Sox.  The trick then is getting someone to send you a talent that is worth a 2.5-3.5 player.  Trying to see guys in that range who got dealt ain’t easy.  The Twins traded Eduardo Escobar (2.7 in 2018) for three fairly uninspiring prospects, the Dodgers traded Alex Verdugo (3.2 in 2019) for a future Hall of Famer, the Tigers trade Nick Castellanos for a couple of mediocre prospects.  That doesn’t particularly inspire me (though hey, maybe you call the Angels about Trout and Pujols? yeah, what team would trade a superstar like that?).  Benintendi strikes me as a guy very similar in value to Jackie Bradley Jr.  He’s a good enough player to keep around and you roll with him until he reaches free agency (after 2022 in his case) and figure it out then.  I don’t think he’s someone you trade to get rid of him and the Sox aren’t in a position where Benny is blocking anyone so ride him.  The problem here is if I was the Sox I wouldn’t trade Andrew Benintendi for any of the offers I am likely to get but if I was another team I wouldn’t offer the Sox what they want for him.

Now hey, if the Sox DO get an intriguing offer, yeah go for it.  That should be true of every player in the organization.  On a larger scale, I’m not sure what is happening with the Sox right now.  Obviously the off-season is ridiculously quiet across the game and the Sox are no different.  I don’t mind the Sox being hesitant, I don’t really love the FA market this season.  If the plan is (as it appears) to simply ride one more grim season and then see where we stand that probably makes some sense.  However from both a talent and a fan involvement perspective this organization can ill afford to lose much in the way of good players.  Andrew Benintendi is still popular and dealing him for a couple of Single A dudes who might someday be as good as him seems sketchy both in baseball terms and in PR terms.