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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Wednesday, January 13, 2021Benny’s Gonna Jet?Thing I said previously.
Thing vi said in response today;
I have too much to offer on this to respond in the thread, but not enough probably for a full on post here. I haven’t posted in a bit (nearly a month) so what the hell, let’s get something up as Spring Training looms (hopefully). Regarding Benintendi I think the biggest issue that vi correctly touches on is that I think we have moved from “willing to talk” to “actively discussing” when it comes to trading Benintendi. Right or wrong the smoke is sufficient to think a trade is likely at this point. So to stick with vi for a moment I’ll address his comment. I wasn’t particularly intending to say that a return to 2019 form isn’t enough but that is true. The Sox need better from Benintendi. In 2019 he was a 1.8 WAR player, in 2018 he was 4.5 WAR. Somewhere in that range would be sufficient and if you put the range at 2.5-3.5 I’d take that bet. I think vi was saying that expecting him to return to 2018 levels is unrealistic and on that I agree but I do think he can be better than he was in 2019. One thing about Benintendi I have read a lot this year is the concerns about his foot speed the last two years. Recognizing that Alex Cora was here for the first of those two years I believe that there is a reasonable chance Benny takes steps to address this and that alone is the impetus to returning to the player he was. With all that said the part of this I don’t grasp is what the trade market is or should be for Andrew Benintendi. I’ve long felt that the people who thought he was a future star were overselling him but now with the last couple of years I think a lot of people are bailing on him too hard. As I said I think he’s a 2.5-3.5 WAR player amd if you go back to 2019 that would get you Kevin Kiermayer on the low end (2.4) and Jorge Soler (3.6) on the high end. I don’t think that’s any kind of a problem for the Sox. The trick then is getting someone to send you a talent that is worth a 2.5-3.5 player. Trying to see guys in that range who got dealt ain’t easy. The Twins traded Eduardo Escobar (2.7 in 2018) for three fairly uninspiring prospects, the Dodgers traded Alex Verdugo (3.2 in 2019) for a future Hall of Famer, the Tigers trade Nick Castellanos for a couple of mediocre prospects. That doesn’t particularly inspire me (though hey, maybe you call the Angels about Trout and Pujols? yeah, what team would trade a superstar like that?). Benintendi strikes me as a guy very similar in value to Jackie Bradley Jr. He’s a good enough player to keep around and you roll with him until he reaches free agency (after 2022 in his case) and figure it out then. I don’t think he’s someone you trade to get rid of him and the Sox aren’t in a position where Benny is blocking anyone so ride him. The problem here is if I was the Sox I wouldn’t trade Andrew Benintendi for any of the offers I am likely to get but if I was another team I wouldn’t offer the Sox what they want for him. Now hey, if the Sox DO get an intriguing offer, yeah go for it. That should be true of every player in the organization. On a larger scale, I’m not sure what is happening with the Sox right now. Obviously the off-season is ridiculously quiet across the game and the Sox are no different. I don’t mind the Sox being hesitant, I don’t really love the FA market this season. If the plan is (as it appears) to simply ride one more grim season and then see where we stand that probably makes some sense. However from both a talent and a fan involvement perspective this organization can ill afford to lose much in the way of good players. Andrew Benintendi is still popular and dealing him for a couple of Single A dudes who might someday be as good as him seems sketchy both in baseball terms and in PR terms. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert
Posted: January 13, 2021 at 01:06 PM | 19 comment(s)
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1. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: January 13, 2021 at 01:50 PM (#5999501)Y'all must be used to the lengths I'll go through to amuse myself, if you've been attending Sox Therapy long enough.
(taps mic) Is this thing on?
We'd both look a lot smarter if it wasn't.
Below I'm going to convert each player's ZIPS projected 2021 WAR into a dollar value, at a rate of $7m per win. (This might be low by $1m or so, but I'm going with it for now.) I will also take that projection forward with the assumption that it'll degrade by $4m per year (a little more than half a win) for each successive year they're still under contract. I'll then compare it to what they're due to make, with some arbitration guesses in there as needed. All numbers are rounded because did you see how imprecise I'm saying this is?
Vazquez: 2 years. $28m in win value, for $13m. (Note: 1 of those 2 years is a club option. I'm assuming it gets exercised.)
Rodriguez: 1 year. $20m win value, for $8m.
Bogaerts: 2 or 5 or 6 years left, depending on opt-out and vesting option. Let's say because of the opt-out it's effectively 2 years for the sake of trade value (i.e the same argument I'd made about JDM). $52m in win value, for $40m. (If he goes the full 6 years, it's $98m win value for $120m.)
Devers: 3 arb years remaining. $51m in win value, for maybe $42m (= $10m + $14m + $18m).
Verdugo: 4 years. $40m in win value, for maybe $34m (= $1m + $7m + $11m + $15m).
Barnes: 1 year. $5m win value, for $5m.
Benintendi: 2 years left. Around $16m in win value, signed for $7m 2021 + (let's say) $10m arb 2022 = $17m.
Pedroia: 1 year. -$1m in win value, for $12m.
Martinez: 2 years. $24m in win value, for $39m.
Eovaldi: 2 years. $10m win value, for $34m.
Sale: I think in this case you might argue Sale won't exercise his opt-out, and this should be treated by an acquiring team as a 4-year deal. $64m in win value, for $115m. (If he opted out it would be more like $40m in win value for $60m.)
I'm not going to bother with the other players because if any of their less recognizable names are on the trade list they are not going to drive a return in value. To sum up for those who aren't into the math of it all, here's how much the player's production is worth, minus what he's due to be paid:
+$15m Vazquez
+$12m Rodriguez, Bogaerts
+$ 9m Devers
+$ 6m Verdugo
+$ 0m Barnes
-$ 1m Benintendi
-$13m Pedroia
-$15m Martinez
-$24m Eovaldi
-$51m Sale
The only things I'd say that would move the needle on any of these guys are (a) do they have the potential to vastly outperfom ZIPS? and (b) will there be any playing time variance? For example, Sale's projection has him making 20 starts, and I worked with the assumption that that's what we should expect out of him throughout his contract. If he's somehow healthy after he returns in 2021, and performs at ZIPS-expected quality, then from additional playing time alone his value will go up. Likewise, if players are able to maintain their WAR levels for several years then my half-win-per-year regression is underselling their value, and thus they should be able to overperform. This hurts most the players signed for longer terms (such as Bogaerts and Sale) more than the others.
That said, of all the players on that list I think Benintendi is the one who has the best chance of outperforming. That's for many of the reasons we've discussed. It's possible he returns to 2018 levels. Teams might think they're buying low on him, which might be why he's drawing interest. He's in theory just entering his peak years. I don't want to see Devers, nor Bogaerts, nor Vazquez get traded - SOME stability, please! - but if they can't extend Rodriguez I wouldn't be surprised to see him sent away during the season.
I didn't put Pedroia in that list to suggest he might be traded. Rather, I did it simply to underscore the Red Sox are counting on several players listed below him.
I think you're right that Benintendi is one of the guys who has the best chance to outperform, as does Devers. Or, put another way, these are the two guys that are most likely to be differently valued by different teams--some see them as likely to step forward, others see them as what their numbers say or worse. If the Red Sox trade Benintendi, I think it will be an indication that they think he is in the latter category.
Why are they doing this? I think this may harken back to Theo's triple bank shots, or 'Smile' if you will. If they can trade Beni for a starter with a similar salary, then add Ozuna/Brantley/Springer, they could find themselves in better shape than if they just went after a SP. Then they get Semien to play SS, move Bogaerts to 3B, and Devers to 1B, suring up the infield defense.
Whatever the case, things are unfolding really slowly. I really hope they don't plan to just tinker around the edges here.
My guess on Benny, and it’s just a guess, is that Bloom is checking out the market. If someone is willing to give up something valuable in return great, if not, keep him. I think you are right that if they move Benny they believe he’s not going to bounce back.
Having said that he obviously makes the Sox better assuming he plays second base.but that also (presumably?) lessens his defensive value moving him from shortstop.
Here’s a crazy though, Rafael Devers...second baseman. I personally think he’s going to be fine at third base but his issues there seem arm related. He’s got good range (especially to his left) and giving him the shorter throw might help out. I’m not advocating that, it’s probably a terrible idea but just throwing it out there. Dalbec-Devers-Semien-Bogaerts?
I think they (rightly) see Semien as a good pickup if he comes on a cheap, short deal.
That is a crazy though, but I dunno. Moving an error-prone 3B to 2B sounds like a recipe for trouble. Also, part of the reason I'd move him is because I'm worried about his conditioning.
Benintendi is hard for me to assess but I think I want him to be better than he actually is. 2 WAR player is solid but being a bit on the small side if he declines much it could be steep. Hopefully someone else overvalues him as I do, and is wrong (as I am).
When he came up, the consensus seemed to be he was a bit of a tweener, but in the past couple years his speed/body quickness declines have made his defense pretty bad. Not sure why it's happened at such a young age, though.
Yes, but right now he'd be one of the fastest catchers in baseball!
As for these deals, they are good if unexciting. Given the tire fire that has been second base the last couple of years he should be an upgrade.
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