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   101. PJ Martinez Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:52 AM (#2544601)
Good point about Clemens. And I didn't even realize that about Kennedy. Obviously I'm just trying to talk up the Yankees as much as possible.
   102. GIANTlhbASS Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:58 AM (#2544617)
What if the Yanks win out and Boston goes 1-3? Then it's the Yankees who would play LAA at home.


Yeah, that would definitely suck. Okay, using a simple .5 binomial distribution, the Sox have a 5/16 (31%) chance of winning one or zero of the last four. The Yanks' chances of running the table (assuming the bullpen doesn't blow after tonight's game -- 12-2 in 7th -- is 1/16 or 6%. Both happening is about 2%.

Upping the Yanks' chances of winning each of the remaining four games to 75% moves it to a 10% chance of their overtaking the Sox -- possible, sure.
   103. Darren Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:58 AM (#2544619)
Why do you hate America, you pantspisser!
   104. Darren Posted: September 27, 2007 at 01:59 AM (#2544625)
The Papelbon article is up now. Check it out.
   105. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 27, 2007 at 02:16 AM (#2544690)
I hope we can clinch in the next 2 days, because then we can rest Papi and Youkilis for the final 2 days, and get Manny some DH AB's. Okajima makes an app tomorrow, hopefully another one before the post season, and that's it.

I'd also keep sending out Eric Gagne with leads, but have Papelbon standing by earlier to get Gagne out of S!@#. And then pull Papelbon out of the 9th.
   106. Hugh Jorgan Posted: September 27, 2007 at 03:17 AM (#2544924)
"What if the Yanks win out and Boston goes 1-3? Then it's the Yankees who would play LAA at home."

Thanks #102 for doing the maths, but it ain't gonna happen. Right now the Twins are cooked, and by far the easier opponent. NY has to travel to Canada(oops Baltimore) and 3 games there are going to be marginally tough to win.
   107. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 27, 2007 at 03:22 AM (#2544947)
NY has to travel to Canada and 3 games there are going to be real tough to win.


Especially with the Orioles all lined up and ready to go in Baltimore. That spells forfeit right there.:)

Not that it matters. Sox will win at least two, and Yankees will drop at least one (possibly tomorrow, with Kazmir on the hill).
   108. Dave Cyprian Posted: September 27, 2007 at 04:14 AM (#2545030)
Going to the game in about 15 hours... GO FIGHT WIN

Man -- you all must be getting excited for these here playoffs coming right up. Oooh boy. Its shaping up to be a doozy.

This time of year is just electric. I'm thinking of that monster Papi blast that ended the ALDS three years ago...
   109. Phil Coorey. Posted: September 27, 2007 at 04:32 AM (#2545037)
Sox will have 3 days off after the regular season anyway.

If we can win tomorrow and the Yanks lose, I'd but Papi on ice straight away.

Loved the article Darren, thanks.
   110. GIANTlhbASS Posted: September 27, 2007 at 04:45 AM (#2545043)
This time of year is just electric. I'm thinking of that monster Papi blast that ended the ALDS three years ago...


I need to hear that. Looking for reasons to be more optimistic now than after '05:

1. Matt Clement not starting game 1. (Hoping Beckett won't give up 5 runs in the first inning of the first game.)
2. Dustin Pedroia over Tony Graffanino.
3. Tad Iguchi not on opposing roster to hit 3-run HR in 5-run rally to take the lead in game 2 after being down 0-4.
4. Best year ever (?) for Sox third baseman over a declining (but always adored) Bill Mueller.
5. Eric Gagne over Geremi Gonzalez (yes, I'm serious).
6. Eric Hinske over John Olerud (wanna see what Wok says).
7. A wicked hot J.D. Drew over Trot (big roll of the dice).
8. Angels bullpen unlikely to be so stingy as not to give up a run, as the White Sox did.
9. Over/under on SOSH posts to "sack up" during ALDS: 55
   111. PJ Martinez Posted: September 27, 2007 at 04:51 AM (#2545049)
"Best year ever (?) for Sox third baseman"

I guess you mean Lowell's best year? Because Wade Boggs was better than this, at least offensively, nearly every year in the eighties.

Vern Stephens in 1949 probably has him beat, too.
   112. GIANTlhbASS Posted: September 27, 2007 at 04:58 AM (#2545057)
Because Wade Boggs was better than this, at least offensively, nearly every year in the eighties.


Agreed. Every time I picture Wade, he's donning a Devil Ray's hat.
   113. Hugh Jorgan Posted: September 27, 2007 at 06:40 AM (#2545104)
So tomorrow(my time), today your time...is this the Beckett Cy Young game? 21st win, gives up 2 or less in 7IP, K's 6-7...and to top it off, NY loses. Divsion and Cy locked up on the same day!
   114. Hugh Jorgan Posted: September 28, 2007 at 04:29 AM (#2547543)
With respect to my previous post...D'oh!

Darren, you're just waiting patiently to post that "division winners blog" aren't you?
   115. Darren Posted: September 28, 2007 at 04:35 AM (#2547559)
2 game lead with 3 to play! Tonight was pretty sucky, glad I missed most of it. The Yanks win with their joke lineup against Tampa's best pitcher and we lose with our best pitcher on the mound. What are the chances? If they do pull this out, they're going to torture us first.

The good news is that Okajima had a nice outing and Ortiz looks to be in top form.
   116. Phil Coorey. Posted: September 28, 2007 at 07:48 AM (#2547645)
Varitek's at bat in the 9th was nothing more than a joke, I am sick of looking at him when he bats with RIFSP.

What a disgrace.
   117. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 28, 2007 at 09:54 AM (#2547650)
2 game lead with 3 to play! Tonight was pretty sucky, glad I missed most of it. The Yanks win with their joke lineup against Tampa's best pitcher and we lose with our best pitcher on the mound. What are the chances? If they do pull this out, they're going to torture us first.

The most hilarious thing is that even if teh Yanks do pull this out, they STILL have to go to Anaheim

Varitek's at bat in the 9th was nothing more than a joke, I am sick of looking at him when he bats with RIFSP.

Seriously, WTF does this asshat Captain?

6. Eric Hinske over John Olerud (wanna see what Wok says).


Don't go there girlfriend.
   118. villageidiom Posted: September 28, 2007 at 11:57 AM (#2547669)
So, supposing they clinch before Sunday. Would it surprise anyone to see the following roster moves soon after:

INF Royce Clayton designated for assignment
P Matt Clement activated from the 60-day DL

...with Clement starting the final regular season game?
   119. covelli chris p Posted: September 28, 2007 at 12:08 PM (#2547675)
no. then you could only use one of buchholz or ellsbury in the playoffs.
   120. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 28, 2007 at 01:23 PM (#2547711)
Varitek's at bat sucked, no doubt, but he was the guy who hit the homer in the 8th to cut it to one run.

They better win tonight. This continues to be really, really annoying.
   121. Nasty Nate Posted: September 28, 2007 at 01:31 PM (#2547722)
Is it just me, or is Varitek always at bat when the bases are loaded, and for some reason he absolutely sucks with the bases juiced?
   122. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: September 28, 2007 at 01:42 PM (#2547730)
Is it just me, or is Varitek always at bat when the bases are loaded, and for some reason he absolutely sucks with the bases juiced?


Nope, he sucks. Career 223/264/349 with the bases loaded.

Can't wait for his fall off the cliff season in '08!
   123. Dan Posted: September 28, 2007 at 04:11 PM (#2547878)
Those numbers have to be some kind of record for underachieving with the bases loaded vs a player's overall numbers. At least for someone with a significant career
   124. tfbg9 Posted: September 28, 2007 at 04:18 PM (#2547886)
IIRC, the Sox have never had the best record in baseball in any of our lifetimes, not since 1946 anyway. Thet ought to try to do this for once, RIGHT NOW.
   125. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 28, 2007 at 04:29 PM (#2547907)
Nope, he sucks. Career 223/264/349 with the bases loaded.
Wasn't he on the list--with Jeter, which is why I saw it all the time--for the most ABs w/ the bases loaded without a grand slam for a while? Is he still on there?
   126. Nasty Nate Posted: September 28, 2007 at 04:53 PM (#2547967)
bad news for other AL playoff teams: David Ortiz is on freaking fire. look at his august and september numbers! this week he's been pulling bombs for dingers, lacing singles, and blasting opposite-field doubles like it was 03.
   127. bibigon Posted: September 28, 2007 at 05:39 PM (#2548027)
I need to hear that. Looking for reasons to be more optimistic now than after '05:


A run differential of 204 instead of 106 is what pops out to me. This is a significantly better team than the 2005 squad.

It is however, probably worse than the Yankees.
   128. villageidiom Posted: September 28, 2007 at 06:20 PM (#2548106)
no. then you could only use one of buchholz or ellsbury in the playoffs.

Yeah, I should've remembered that. Basically I have tickets for Sunday and I want the game to have some kind of meaning, but I don't want it to be for the division. I'd rather they sew that up immediately.

Wasn't he on the list--with Jeter, which is why I saw it all the time--for the most ABs w/ the bases loaded without a grand slam for a while? Is he still on there?

He has 2 grand slams now. Jeter has 1.

bad news for other AL playoff teams: David Ortiz is on freaking fire. look at his august and september numbers!

Oritz
321/432/566 April-July
346/466/707 August-September

Yeah, that's freakin' insane. That's like A-Rod the first six weeks of the season. Actually, let's check that:

A-Rod- start of season to May 13 (when his SLG was still over .700)

162 PA
9 doubles
15 HR
14 BB
31 K
.407 OBP
.714 SLG

Papi- Aug 19 to now (roughly equivalent PA to above)

160 PA
13 doubles
13 HR
31 BB
17 K
.500 OBP
.810 SLG

I stand by my statement. Freakin' insane.


Also for your review...

Drew
248/354/375 April-July
305/407/477 August-September

Lugo
221/287/325 April-July
270/308/402 August-September

Not that these two compare to Papi, but it's nice to see some improvement in the rest of the house.
   129. villageidiom Posted: September 28, 2007 at 06:23 PM (#2548107)
A run differential of 204 instead of 106 is what pops out to me. This is a significantly better team than the 2005 squad.

It is however, probably worse than the Yankees.


Yankees have a 185 differential. But they're playing Baltimore.
   130. bibigon Posted: September 28, 2007 at 06:34 PM (#2548124)
Yankees have a 185 differential. But they're playing Baltimore.


The Red Sox have probably played New York to date - I was getting at who I thought was a better team at this point in the season.
   131. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 28, 2007 at 08:51 PM (#2548285)
Papi- Aug 19 to now (roughly equivalent PA to above)

160 PA
13 doubles
13 HR
31 BB
17 K
.500 OBP
.810 SLG

I stand by my statement. Freakin' insane.


But it hasn't gotten any attention at all, which is strange.
   132. Famous Original Joe C Posted: September 28, 2007 at 09:37 PM (#2548328)
I got a message from a friend that Buchholz is shut down for the season, including playoffs. Also heard it on WEEI.

No word of why.
   133. Darren Posted: September 28, 2007 at 10:20 PM (#2548358)
See the newsblog Joe.
   134. rr Posted: September 28, 2007 at 10:45 PM (#2548382)
That is too bad about Buchholz. I wanted to see the guy pitch. Probably smart, though.

I have not read the thread, so this may have been mentioned, but FWIW the Red Sox score very high--among the highest ever--in the BPro postseason "secret sauce" number, according to Nate Silver. That fits in with my intuition that they should be slight favorites to win it all. Cubs and Dbacks do best in NL; Angels-Yankees-Cleveland in in order rest of AL.
   135. The Original SJ Posted: September 29, 2007 at 02:59 AM (#2549350)
Congratulations Red Sox. Very nice season for you.
   136. The Original SJ Posted: September 29, 2007 at 03:03 AM (#2549365)
what is the secret sauce number?
   137. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: September 29, 2007 at 03:09 AM (#2549412)
I'd just like to send a big F!@# you to Kevin Millar. He moved slightly up on the "Favourite Least Favourite Former Red Sox Player" list with the HBP, but with that K he just moved down.

Chad Bradford moved way up, and that was probably the best thing Jay Payton ahs ever done for the Red Sox.
   138. PJ Martinez Posted: September 29, 2007 at 03:15 AM (#2549430)
"that was probably the best thing Jay Payton ahs ever done for the Red Sox"

probably?
   139. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 29, 2007 at 03:16 AM (#2549431)
Never in doubt.
   140. PJ Martinez Posted: September 29, 2007 at 03:16 AM (#2549433)
Kevin Millar did draw perhaps the most important walk in Red Sox history. He deserves more credit for that than he gets, I think.
   141. Darren Posted: September 29, 2007 at 03:26 AM (#2549453)
new thread! yeah baby!
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