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— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

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   101. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 12, 2007 at 03:45 AM (#2481791)
They have a sizable lead on the Tigers

No they don't.

who looked like a merely pretty good team before recently falling apart.

They look like they're getting back on track. They have a good rotation, a great offense, good defense, and a mediocre bullpen.

They also have a large lead on the Mariners, who aren't a good team at all. They are a lousy team with a very good bullpen.


That's BS. The Mariners are great because 1) their bullpen is awesome 2) they play in a pitcher's park and 3) They're great defensively. They've all plus defenders up the middle and the best defensive 3B in the AL.
   102. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: August 12, 2007 at 03:52 AM (#2481795)
3) They're great defensively. They've all plus defenders up the middle and the best defensive 3B in the AL.
That's way, way wrong. They are--at best--mediocre defensively. Their corner outfields (unless they're playing Jones) are probably the worst in the league, and lately McLaren has inexplicably taken to playing Vidro at 2B. Sexson is a butcher at 1B, and Betancourt is by all counts, both UZR and Mariner fan observations, not having the kind of year defensively he did in the past.

I'm sorry, maybe I'll be saying this as this spray each other with champagne and the Yankees look on disappointed, but I just don't thinks Seattle is that good a team. They have a nothing in the rotation after King Felix, they refuse to play their best line-up and despite what Wok thinks (not that anyone is listening to him anyway) the defense isn't anything. They have a solid bullpen and that's it. They'll finish third in the Wild Card.
   103. Guapo Posted: August 12, 2007 at 03:53 AM (#2481797)
Can Winning Whining Be a Priority Now? Please?

Fixed, with emphasis, for Red Sox fans
   104. rr Posted: August 12, 2007 at 03:57 AM (#2481800)
Fixed, with emphasis, for Red Sox fans.

I hassle Red Sox fans as much as anyone here, but in fairness, many of them are opposed to the whining and are sick of it, since they realize that:

The Red Sox have the best record in baseball
the biggest division lead in baseball
the second-highest payroll in baseball
one of the best owner/management set-ups in baseball
and the greatest comeback in baseball history, against their archrivals,
as the icing on the cake of their well-earned championship three years ago.
   105. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 12, 2007 at 04:06 AM (#2481805)
Their corner outfields (unless they're playing Jones)

They are starting to play Adam Jones more.

McLaren has inexplicably taken to playing Vidro at 2B

That I have NOT seen.

Johjima is a plus defender, you've got Ichiro sucking down flyballs in CF, Betancourt is a good defender, Beltre is the best in the business... I don't know what the problem is...?

Their offense isn't really that bad either. They don't walk, but they have a high BA offense (except for Richie Lugo at 1B), and they're great baserunners.

Don't really understand the Seattle hate. They may not win the Wildcard, but they'll stay in the hunt until at least mid-September.
   106. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 12, 2007 at 04:06 AM (#2481806)
A "fixed" joke. Damn, the Yankee fans are breaking out the big guns tonight.
   107. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 12, 2007 at 04:11 AM (#2481809)
A "fixed" joke. Damn, the Yankee fans are breaking out the big guns tonight.

I've lived under the assumption that the Yankees just simply jobbed for us in 2004.
   108. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 12, 2007 at 04:27 AM (#2481819)
I hassle Red Sox fans as much as anyone here, but in fairness, many of them are opposed to the whining and are sick of it, since they realize that:

The Red Sox have the best record in baseball
the biggest division lead in baseball
the second-highest payroll in baseball
one of the best owner/management set-ups in baseball
and the greatest comeback in baseball history, against their archrivals,
as the icing on the cake of their well-earned championship three years ago.


Not to mention that brilliant ninth inning save this afternoon. They're a lock.
   109. rr Posted: August 12, 2007 at 04:36 AM (#2481824)
Not to mention that brilliant ninth inning save this afternoon. They're a lock.


I don't think the Yankees can catch them, unless Hughes and Chamberlain pitch REALLY, REALLY well, as I said upthread. As talented as those guys are, they are very young.

Of course, the Yankees do have that payroll...
   110. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: August 12, 2007 at 05:46 AM (#2481847)
I still don't think the Yankees will catch them. Even if the Yankees are the better team -- and I'm not sure of this even though our team has gotten stronger with Hughes and Chamberlain -- I just don't see us making up 5 more games in a month and a half. I have almost zero doubt we'll be in the playoffs again, though.
   111. Dr. Vaux Posted: August 12, 2007 at 06:06 AM (#2481853)
Schilling's outing Sunday is huge. Of course, we'd all be feeling better about him if Francona had pulled him after six last time, like he obviously should have, 75 pitches be damned.
   112. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: August 12, 2007 at 06:40 AM (#2481859)
I'm not really worried about the Yankees catching the Sox, though it could happen. However, I am concerned about how much this feels like 2004, but in the other direction. When the 04 season ended, I really felt like the Sox were the best team in the league, and felt really good about their playoff chances. If the Yankees keep playing like they have been, they may well be the best team once the playoffs start, even as the wildcard. I sure as hell hope the similiarities to 04 end there.
   113. Dr. Vaux Posted: August 12, 2007 at 06:43 AM (#2481863)
Well, the way the Sox are playing lately, there's no chance of them getting ahead of the Yankees 3-0, if that's what you mean. . .

I'm only doing this for giggles, by the way. Yes I root for the Red Sox, but I'm not panicking for real.
   114. tfbg9 Posted: August 12, 2007 at 05:23 PM (#2482036)
Well, I for one, notice a certain trend lately in the AL East. Sox play .500ish ball, NYY's steamroller everything in their path.
   115. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 12, 2007 at 09:20 PM (#2482753)
Tito intentionally lost today's game.
   116. Chip Posted: August 12, 2007 at 09:25 PM (#2482754)
But he boosted Gagne's confidence!

Oh wait a minute ...
   117. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: August 12, 2007 at 09:51 PM (#2482764)
Tito intentionally lost today's game.


I've never understood not bringing your closer into a tie game on the road. It's one of the most retarded unwritten rules managers follow. Torre pulled the same #### against the Giants this year, which the Yankees of course lost. It makes absolutely no sense.
   118. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 12, 2007 at 09:54 PM (#2482766)
I've never understood not bringing your closer into a tie game on the road. It's one of the most retarded unwritten rules managers follow. Torre pulled the same #### against the Giants this year, which the Yankees of course lost. It makes absolutely no sense.

It's not just that. Why not leave Manny Delcarmen in? With runners on third and first and no outs, why don't you walk Tejada? He gets lucky with a pop-up, at which point it's fine not to walk Millar because a DP ends it. But then on a wild pitch the runner advances to second. That's where you need to walk the batter to set up the DP again...but he doesn't. Just mind-boggling.
   119. Answer Guy. Posted: August 12, 2007 at 09:56 PM (#2482767)
I've never understood not bringing your closer into a tie game on the road.

Yeah, they needed to use Papelbon at some point during this game. Tito managed as if he were secretly trying to lose.

As for as I am concerned, the next time Gagne comes in the Sox better be trailing.
   120. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 12, 2007 at 10:28 PM (#2482789)
   121. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 12, 2007 at 10:39 PM (#2482796)
I agree, Andy.
   122. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: August 12, 2007 at 10:45 PM (#2482801)
I do too. (What did he say?)
   123. tfbg9 Posted: August 12, 2007 at 10:48 PM (#2482803)
Thanks goodness for 2004 and my super-genius bets! 'Cause we aint taking this Division boys. No f*cking way.
   124. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: August 12, 2007 at 10:50 PM (#2482805)
I can't decide whether I want you on or off the ledge.
   125. rr Posted: August 12, 2007 at 10:52 PM (#2482806)
Have the ST Guys made sure that Darren has checked in?
   126. Answer Guy. Posted: August 12, 2007 at 10:59 PM (#2482811)
I can't decide whether I want you on or off the ledge.

I'm on it. I'm still next to an open window and could easily climb through it if the Sox take care of business at Fenway and sweep Tampa Bay and win 2 of 3 from the Angels.
   127. tfbg9 Posted: August 12, 2007 at 11:00 PM (#2482812)
I can't decide whether I want you on or off the ledge.



Its not a ledge. Its a just a low shelf. It only appears to be a ledge to you because you're so tiny. Got it?
   128. tfbg9 Posted: August 12, 2007 at 11:01 PM (#2482813)
I'm on it. I'm still next to an open window and could easily climb through it if the Sox take care of business at Fenway and sweep Tampa Bay and win 2 of 3 from the Angels.


Bwahhahahahahahahah. Jump now.
   129. Answer Guy. Posted: August 12, 2007 at 11:05 PM (#2482815)
Bwahhahahahahahahah. Jump now.

They seem, like most teams, to be something of a different team at home.

Of course, the series in Baltimore was "on the road" in the sense that they all had to stay in a hotel and the Orioles got to bat last. If you knew nothing about ballpark architecture or rules and just looked at who the crowd was mostly rooting for, you'd have entirely the wrong idea about who the home team was.
   130. tfbg9 Posted: August 12, 2007 at 11:12 PM (#2482818)
I honestly will be surprised if they make the playoffs at this point.
   131. rr Posted: August 12, 2007 at 11:13 PM (#2482820)
I honestly will be surprised if they make the playoffs at this point


Based on what?
   132. tfbg9 Posted: August 12, 2007 at 11:23 PM (#2482825)
Based on what?


Pedroia is OK, maybe a little over his head. Lugo is lost. Crisp has been figured out by the AL. Ortiz is hurting badly. Manny is now a good, old guess hitter. Drew is a bad joke. Lowell's OK, but usually fades badly right about now in the season. 'Tek is semi-useless as a hitter. Youks is fading slowly, and is banged up. Hinske can't hit much, Cora is back to himself, 'Belli's plain awful, WMP is useless. I wanted them to make that Dye trade.

Beckett is very good. Dice is very good. Wake's...never mind. Schill is Traschel all of a sudden. Lester aint ready. MDC might be OK. Okajima's nibbling is becoming more well known, and he's moving backwards. Papelbon is very good. The rest of the pen is a bad joke. Gagne is a major disaster, my friend.

We can't hit, we have two good starters, and the whole team is pressing like all hell, if not outright choking. We haven't had a big hit in months it seems.

OK?
   133. CONservative governMENt Posted: August 13, 2007 at 01:00 AM (#2482875)
175. kevin Posted: May 06, 2007 at 08:35 PM (#2356575)
Do you contend that the Yankee addition of Clemens will not impact the final AL East standings or the playoffs in any way?



If they don't make the playoffs, it's irrelevant how much a difference he makes. And I don't think he changes things for the Yankees. As Rosenthal says, he was a 6 inning pitcher last year reduced to a 5 inning pitcher in the DH AL. That won't reduce the strain of the Yankees bullpen. And he won't be available for another month anyway. He's 45 years old and he won't be traveling on road trips. I think it almost certain the Yankees jsut wasted 18+ million dollars, money that they could have used at the deadline to fix other more longterm problems.

I guess Cashmans plan all along was to be stingy this off-season, then load up on Clemens. That they #### the bed earlier than expected forced his hand to sign him sooner than expected. If I'm not mistaken, adding Clemens salary plus the cap penalty crushes any previous payroll record.

So much for Cashman being fiscally conservative and building from within. Darren is right. He has no apparent virtues as a GM besides his willingness to open Steinbrenner's wallet. It will make this year all the more delicious when the spending goes unrequited once again.
   134. JC in DC Posted: August 13, 2007 at 01:16 AM (#2482891)
Ok, whatever.

tfbg9 and Sox fans: If there's one thing a fan learns, it's that when you're losing, you look terrible, and when you're winning, you look great. Right now, two of the hottest hitters in the majors are Cano and Cabrera. When they're hitting like that, and you've got Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Matsui, and Abreu doing pretty much what they do, the Yankees look unbeatable. And, the Sox are slumping. But Cano and Cabrera won't keep up this pace. And Matsui and Posada will go through a dry spell soon. I think we're in for a nice race, but you've still got 4 games on us and our margin for error is very slim.
   135. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 13, 2007 at 01:35 AM (#2482916)
Of course, the series in Baltimore was "on the road" in the sense that they all had to stay in a hotel and the Orioles got to bat last. If you knew nothing about ballpark architecture or rules and just looked at who the crowd was mostly rooting for, you'd have entirely the wrong idea about who the home team was.

One of these days the Yanks and the Red Sox are going to just play each other in Baltimore and eliminate the middleman....

So much for Cashman being fiscally conservative and building from within.

Jeter
Rivera
Posada
Cano
Cabrera
Hughes
Chamberlain

I think I'd take those seven farm system products against any other team's top seven. And you may also be hearing about Ian Kennedy before too long as well.
   136. Phil Coorey. Posted: August 13, 2007 at 01:59 AM (#2482949)
You forgot Wang, Andy
   137. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 13, 2007 at 02:02 AM (#2482952)
You forgot Wang, Andy

Of course, and that makes eight going on nine. Can any of the other 29 teams match that for quality?

And for that matter, you could almost half count Pettitte, since he stayed with them for his first nine years and came back at his first opportunity.
   138. Hombre Brotani Posted: August 13, 2007 at 02:43 AM (#2482999)
I'm sorry, maybe I'll be saying this as this spray each other with champagne and the Yankees look on disappointed, but I just don't thinks Seattle is that good a team. They have a nothing in the rotation after King Felix ...
Jeff Weaver Alert: With his shutout today, Weaver's lowered his ERA to 3.16 since he came off the DL on June 9, and eight of his last 11 starts have qualified as a QS. Just looking at starting pitching, if one of Washburn or Bautista continues with their bout of effectiveness, that's all the Mariners need to stay in it the rest of the season.

Personally, I don't think the M's are that good either, but they're still in it, so ... *shrug*
   139. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: August 13, 2007 at 02:57 AM (#2483039)
Jeff Weaver Alert: With his shutout today, Weaver's lowered his ERA to 3.16 since he came off the DL on June 9, and eight of his last 11 starts have qualified as a QS.
Sure, but before today, his ERA in his previous five starts was 5.93. Weaver is all over the map. I haven't bought Seattle yet and I won't until they make the playoffs.
   140. Hombre Brotani Posted: August 13, 2007 at 03:07 AM (#2483044)
Sure, but before today, his ERA in his previous five starts was 5.93.
One excellent start (8 IP, 1 ER), two QSs (7 IP, 3 ER, 6.1 IP, 3 ER) and two disasters. I'll take that from any 3/4/5 guy. Also, he had a 1.67 ERA in the six starts before the last five. No matter how you cut it, he's miles better than who he was for most of 2005 and 2006. Like you, I'm not a believer in Seattle, but I don't think you can completely discount the M's rotation.
   141. Phil Coorey. Posted: August 13, 2007 at 03:30 AM (#2483054)
Reading about Seattle as I play "Fake Empire' by the National.

Cool

I'm not on the ledge after the walk off, probably because Tiger won and Souths have had their best season since 1989.

EDIT - It was Millar, kill me now.
   142. Danny Posted: August 13, 2007 at 03:46 AM (#2483065)
I think I'd take those seven farm system products against any other team's top seven.

If you go all the way back to the 1992 draft, plenty of teams can match that. Not many teams can afford to extend all their homegrown stars, though.
   143. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 13, 2007 at 04:10 AM (#2483074)
I think I'd take those seven farm system products against any other team's top seven.

If you go all the way back to the 1992 draft, plenty of teams can match that. Not many teams can afford to extend all their homegrown stars, though.


Well, now it's between eight and ten we're talking about, not seven. And with Kennedy, six of those ten will have come up just since 2005.

But forget Rivera, Pettitte, Jeter and Posada. How many teams today wouldn't gladly trade their top six recent farm products for the micro-salaried Cano, Cabrera, Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy?

My point is that in the last few years, in terms of first rate Major League talent, the Yankee farm system doesn't have to take a back seat to any other team. Those dreadful days of shoveling their best prospects or high draft picks for geriatric pitchers are mercifully over, and as I was predicting five or six years ago on this site that this great day would eventually come, I can't say that I'm too unhappy about it.
   144. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 13, 2007 at 04:19 AM (#2483080)
A propos to that last post, any skeptics about either Cano or Cabrera are invited to do a bit of digging into what those two have done in the past three months or so, and they're improving by the day. Cano's now 24, and Cabrera just turned 23 yesterday. The Yankees don't need Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones anymore---they're set in centerfield for a long, long time.

And P.S.: Damon's injuries are healing, he's hitting again, and in LF he's nowhere near the defensive liability that he is, or was, in center. So even that little Spring and early Summer disaster is starting to correct itself without having to press the panic button.
   145. PerroX Posted: August 13, 2007 at 04:25 AM (#2483083)
Poor Red Sox.
   146. Dr. Vaux Posted: August 13, 2007 at 04:26 AM (#2483084)
Yes, after the MSM's doom and gloom all through the first half, everyone can now see that the Yankees are in. . . well, the best position for the immediate future among baseball teams.
   147. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: August 13, 2007 at 05:45 AM (#2483118)
I could be wrong, but aren't the Yankees just now working through a really soft part of their schedule?

Not that I'm dismissing them, all season long I've been shocked at the Yankees seemingly playing much worse than their talent, and the Red Sox playing much better than theirs (esp with Manny Ortiz not at 100% and two black holes in the lineup).

This is a weird Red Sox team.
   148. DKDC Posted: August 13, 2007 at 06:15 AM (#2483121)
But forget Rivera, Pettitte, Jeter and Posada. How many teams today wouldn't gladly trade their top six recent farm products for the micro-salaried Cano, Cabrera, Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy?


Plenty of teams wouldn't make that trade, I'd guess. Melky, Wang, and Cano are proven regulars (but not stars), and the other three are promising (very promising in Hughes case) prospects who haven't proven squat in the majors.

The Orioles have had a mediocre at best farm system over the last 10 years, and I doubt they'd trade Bedard, Roberts, Markakis, Loewen, Ray, and Olson for those six. Certainly any team that has produced a legit superstar over the last few years wouldn't make that trade.

As an aside, the Yankees (and Red Sox) advantage isn't just that they can afford to extend their Jeters and Posadas. Those same teams who can't afford to re-sign their big name free agents also can't afford to pay above slot to draft picks, invest large amounts of money in scouting/training in foreign markets, and pay large bonuses to international free agents.

The Yankees certainly have some legit young talent in the majors and farm system, but that's largely the result of a broken system.
   149. rfloh Posted: August 13, 2007 at 07:08 AM (#2483126)
#148

Robinson Cano, age 24, this season: 311-358-503, OPS+ of 130 at 2b, UZR has him at +24 / 150.

Brian Roberts, age 29, this season: 320-405-472, OPS+ of 132 at 2b, UZR has him at +4 / 150.

Also, Melky Cabrera, age 23, this season: 301-349-443, OPS+ of 113 at CF, playing average defense, UZR has him at +6 /150. Not yet a star, but he is only 23.

Wang's career ERA+ is 115.

<edit: typos>
   150. Dr. Vaux Posted: August 13, 2007 at 07:28 AM (#2483128)
And Hughes+Chambelain for Loewen, Ray, and Olson is, at the moment, no contest. The Orioles would be dumb as Dave Littlefield's left nut not to make that trade.
   151. Flynn Posted: August 13, 2007 at 08:07 AM (#2483131)
I'm not on the ledge after the walk off, probably because Tiger won and Souths have had their best season since 1989.


It's been that lean since 1989? 9th place isn't bad though. At least they're competent now.
   152. Phil Coorey. Posted: August 13, 2007 at 09:08 AM (#2483134)
It's been that lean since 1989? 9th place isn't bad though. At least they're competent now.


Very competent and still a real chance of making the semi finals. 1989 was the last time they were in the semis. I forgot what they even looked like!!!

Massive game against Manly next Monday night, I think we can beat them...
   153. Flynn Posted: August 13, 2007 at 10:05 AM (#2483136)
Guess this two-named French guy really can work miracles. ;)
   154. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 13, 2007 at 11:09 AM (#2483139)
I could be wrong, but aren't the Yankees just now working through a really soft part of their schedule?

Absolutely. And I'm not saying for a second that the Red Sox aren't still the team to beat.

Plenty of teams wouldn't make that trade, I'd guess. Melky, Wang, and Cano are proven regulars (but not stars), and the other three are promising (very promising in Hughes case) prospects who haven't proven squat in the majors.

Watch a month's worth of Yankee games and then see if you still believe that. You have to see Cano and Cabrera on a daily basis to appreciate just how good they've become, and just how much more of an upside they have than their earlier statistics would indicate.

The Orioles have had a mediocre at best farm system over the last 10 years, and I doubt they'd trade Bedard, Roberts, Markakis, Loewen, Ray, and Olson for those six. Certainly any team that has produced a legit superstar over the last few years wouldn't make that trade.

Watch Cano, Hughes and Chamberlain for a while and tell me that you'd trade those three alone for those six Orioles. And I'm not knocking any of those O's for a minute. (How could I, after seeing what they've done to the Yanks so far this year?)

As an aside, the Yankees (and Red Sox) advantage isn't just that they can afford to extend their Jeters and Posadas. Those same teams who can't afford to re-sign their big name free agents also can't afford to pay above slot to draft picks, invest large amounts of money in scouting/training in foreign markets, and pay large bonuses to international free agents.

That's exactly what I've been saying for years. The final piece of the puzzle was taking some of that money and putting it in their farm system, instead of just playing the dumb rich uncle to the Senior Citizens' Society of Just About to be Washed Up Pitchers.

The Yankees certainly have some legit young talent in the majors and farm system, but that's largely the result of a broken system.

The point is that it ain't that broken any more.
   155. a bebop a rebop Posted: August 13, 2007 at 11:18 AM (#2483142)
The point is that it ain't that broken any more.


A system in which the poorer teams can't sign the best talent, in spite of a draft which had the original intent of giving every team a fair shot at that talent, seems pretty broken to me.
   156. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 13, 2007 at 11:32 AM (#2483146)
The point is that it ain't that broken any more.

A system in which the poorer teams can't sign the best talent, in spite of a draft which had the original intent of giving every team a fair shot at that talent, seems pretty broken to me.


Sorry, I thought the "broken" reference was to the Yankees' farm system, not the way baseball has chosen to distribute the talent at the draft level. I completely agree with your point about the latter.
   157. . . . . . . Posted: August 13, 2007 at 11:39 AM (#2483147)

A system in which the poorer teams can't sign the best talent, in spite of a draft which had the original intent of <strike>giving every team a fair shot at that talent</strike> controlling bonuses given to high schoolers, seems pretty broken to me.



Fixed that for you. Though your point about it being broken still stands.
   158. philly Posted: August 13, 2007 at 11:59 AM (#2483155)
If you go all the way back to the 1992 draft, plenty of teams can match that. Not many teams can afford to extend all their homegrown stars, though.

Well, now it's between eight and ten we're talking about, not seven. And with Kennedy, six of those ten will have come up just since 2005.


Not use why Danny only went back to Jeter in 1992 draft and not all the way back to 1990 for Posada and Pettitte. There's no way that those players can be considered in the same cohort as the current group.

I'd say the Yankees have had 3 distinct productive phases of home grown talent acquisition.

1. Late 1980s to 1992 which produced Williams, Rivera, Pettitte, Posada and Jeter - the late 90s dynasty core.

2. 1998-2001 was an extremely productive international phase with Soriano and El Duque (if you want to include very expensive semi-pros) and Wang, Cano and Cabrera.

3. 2004-2007 - Hughes, Joba, Kennedy et al in what looks like it may potentially be a very productive (and expensive) draft era.

The last two groups are going to end up overlapping nicely, of course.
   159. DKDC Posted: August 13, 2007 at 12:27 PM (#2483163)
And Hughes+Chambelain for Loewen, Ray, and Olson is, at the moment, no contest.

Agreed, although I'd argue that Bedard/Roberts/Markakis trio for Wang/Cano/Cabrera is just as lopsided. Either way, these six are relatively comparable, and I'm only choosing the Orioles because I know their players. There's the obvious ones like the Brewers, Mets, and Indians, but I'm betting there are numerous other teams that have brought up comparable or better young talent in recent years.

Robinson Cano, age 24, this season: 311-358-503, OPS+ of 130 at 2b, UZR has him at +24 / 150.

Brian Roberts, age 29, this season: 320-405-472, OPS+ of 132 at 2b, UZR has him at +4 / 150.


If you average out Cano's UZR's for the last 2.5 years, he's just slightly above average (as is Roberts). I wouldn't place to much reliance on half season fielding numbers.

Also, the basrunning gap between these two is easily a win a year.
   160. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 13, 2007 at 12:29 PM (#2483164)
Andy:

Regarding quality of young players on a given roster developed internally the Brewers might be worth considering:

1b Prince Fielder. All-Star in 2007 and currently leading the NL in home runs. 23 years old
ss JJ Hardy. All-Star in 2007 and has 20 homers while playing good defense. 24 years old
3b Ryan Braun Leading candidate for NL ROY currently hitting .348/.392/.666 with 22 homers and 59 rbi in his first 70 games. 23 years old
rf Corey Hart .276/.340/.505 hitting either leadoff or second in the lineup. 18 homers while also stealing 18 bases in 22 attempts. Has made a plethora of outstanding catches to save games of late. 25 years old
SP Yovani Gallardo After dominating to the tune of a 2.51 ERA has a horrible outing against Colorado giving up 12 runs in two innings causing his ERA to spike to 4.20. But in 55 innings has struck out 48 while walking 20. Came into the season considered on par if just a hair below as a prospect to Hughes. 21 years old
SP Manny Parra Has bounced between starting and relieving for Milwaukee. Pitched a perfect game at Triple A after dominating Double A. In very limited action has struck out 18 walking 6 in 17 innings. 24 years old
RP Carlos Villanueva Was the Brewers best pitcher in the firsts half making spot starts and relieving. Due to overwork has regressed in the second half causing his ERA to balloon to 4.72. But in 76 innings has struck out 72 batters with a truly fine changeup coupled with excellent control which has deserted him the last month because of a tired arm. 23 years old.

This does not account for the other "home grown" players on the roster including Rickie Weeks (suffering a disasterous 2007 season with a .209 batting average), Geoff Jenkins (longest tenured player), Bill Hall and Ben Sheets (on the DL).

The oldest player in the last paragraph is Jenkins at 32. Every other player shown here is 28 years old or less.

Just thought this might be a worth a mention even though the Crew does play in the "lesser" league.
   161. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 13, 2007 at 12:36 PM (#2483166)
Thanks, Harvey. And it couldn't happen to a better city. I hope that Miller Field is half as good a place to watch a game as County Stadium was, at least on the few beautiful September afternoons that I happened to be there in the 80's and early 90's.

This is one of those threads that should be put in a time capsule and re-opened in about five or ten years.
   162. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 13, 2007 at 12:39 PM (#2483167)
Tampa Bay is not too far behind, either: Crawford, Upton, Young, Shields, with Niemann, Longoria, Davis, and McGee on the way, and maybe a couple of more guys in there (Sonnanstine, Hammel, Fernando Perez...)

-- MWE
   163. 185/456(GGC) Posted: August 13, 2007 at 01:13 PM (#2483183)
Okay, four or five innings isn't enough to go on statistically but, from a scouting standpoint, what's going on with Eric Gagne? Is he hurt or something? I think I've only seen one of his appearances, but I've heard the weekend ones on the radio.
   164. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 13, 2007 at 01:19 PM (#2483188)
MWE,

With Tampa drafting in the top 5 every year since inception, it would be pretty sad if they didn't have a half dozen young star propects.
   165. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: August 13, 2007 at 01:31 PM (#2483194)
There's a Gagne's mental state thread new right now, EWK. Please, kick it off.
   166. 185/456(GGC) Posted: August 13, 2007 at 01:38 PM (#2483195)
Post on my thread about Harmon Killebrew, TVe, and you have a deal.
   167. rfloh Posted: August 13, 2007 at 05:06 PM (#2483379)
#159

Sure. So Roberts is a slightly better player, probably in his prime; while Cano is slightly inferior younger player who probably will improve.
   168. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 13, 2007 at 05:32 PM (#2483416)
So Roberts is a slightly better player, probably in his prime; while Cano is slightly inferior younger player who probably will improve.

Bottom line here: The Yanks would never make a Cano - Roberts trade, while the O's would either do so in a blink, or prove that they're still the O's by not making it. And I think Roberts is a terrific player.
   169. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 13, 2007 at 05:35 PM (#2483419)
I'd guess. Melky, Wang, and Cano are proven regulars (but not stars), and the other three are promising (very promising in Hughes case) prospects who haven't proven squat in the majors.


What the #### does Cano have to do to become a star other then play plus defense at an up the middle position while putting up a 130 OPS+ for two years?

If you average out Cano's UZR's for the last 2.5 years, he's just slightly above average (as is Roberts). I wouldn't place to much reliance on half season fielding numbers.

That's deceiving because he was so awful in his first year, as are a lot of defensively talented young players, because they are adjusting to the league. He was +10 or something last year. I'm not arguing he's better then Roberts this year, although I think he will be by the end of the year, but he's definately better in the field then his three years UZR suggests.
   170. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 13, 2007 at 06:04 PM (#2483461)
One other interesting note about Cano may be of dubious significance and / or reliability, but I've heard it said several times on the air that Cano is second on the Yankees only to A-Rod in terms of tape measure BP home runs. He's such a line drive, go the opposite field style hitter that it doesn't show up in his home run totals, but it wouldn't shock me too much if you see him starting to average 25-30 a year within the next few years. He already may have the best swing mechanics of anyone on that entire roster.
   171. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 13, 2007 at 06:11 PM (#2483471)
but it wouldn't shock me too much if you see him starting to average 25-30 a year within the next few years. He already may have the best swing mechanics of anyone on that entire roster.

He's got 7 HRs in his last 130 PAs. I think he's likely to finish with 18-20 this year. If he ever gets off to a decent start, I think it's a pretty safe bet that he'll finish with 25+ homers. The guy is an XBH machine right now (9th in the AL and climbing), I wouldn't be surprised to see some of those doubles and triples go over the wall in a couple of years.
   172. JC in DC Posted: August 13, 2007 at 06:16 PM (#2483478)
Cano is just a great hitter. Torre was probably right in his original assessment of him, but underestimated his power. I like that his walks have increased, and hope it portends a trend through his career.
   173. DKDC Posted: August 13, 2007 at 06:24 PM (#2483489)
Bottom line here: The Yanks would never make a Cano - Roberts trade, while the O's would either do so in a blink, or prove that they're still the O's by not making it. And I think Roberts is a terrific player.

We're confusing a few different arguments here. Of course Cano is more valuable now as a trading chip because he's younger and cheaper.

My original argument was that Roberts is a comparable farm system product to Cano. A slightly optimistic projection for Cano puts him at ~40 BRAR (current production and no injuries) over the next 3 years which would place him slightly ahead of where Roberts will be at the end of this year, his last 'cheap' year. I don't believe there is a significant defensive difference between these two players, even if we just use 2006-mid 2007 UZR (which is still too small a sample for defense), there's only a 5 run gap between the players.

Also, in fairness to Roberts, he was rushed by a team that was desperate for talent at the major league level, and lost time rotting on the bench because his second base competition wasn't Tony Womack. If he came up through the Yankees system, he would've likely spent much or all of 2001-2003 in the minors and still be two years away from free agency.

I also argued that Brian Roberts is a better player than Cano right now in response to some OPS+ (which underrates Roberts OBP and ignores his baserunning) and 2007 UZR (sample size) arguments.
   174. Loren F. Posted: August 13, 2007 at 06:50 PM (#2483530)
I wouldn't argue with the contention that Roberts is the better all-around player RIGHT NOW. Going forward, I'd rather have the younger & cheaper Cano, who also may have the higher upside to boot.

I've also seen a couple of people on BBTF threads suggest that Cano, being relatively cheap, would make a valuable trading chip for the Yankees, because Cano's low cost would mean more for teams with smaller payrolls. That logic makes some sense, but Cano would be so difficult to replace -- a good-hit, good-field 2B with the right attitude who's still improving -- that I don't think it would make sense for the Yankees to trade him. He seems like someone who could man 2B for NYY for the next 8 years.
   175. The Marksist Posted: August 13, 2007 at 07:02 PM (#2483543)
As an aside, the Yankees (and Red Sox) advantage isn't just that they can afford to extend their Jeters and Posadas. Those same teams who can't afford to re-sign their big name free agents also can't afford to pay above slot to draft picks, invest large amounts of money in scouting/training in foreign markets, and pay large bonuses to international free agents.

The Yankees certainly have some legit young talent in the majors and farm system, but that's largely the result of a broken system.


The can't-afford-to-pay-above-slot logic never really made sense to me. The idea that any team (KC, Pitt, whoever) should draft an inferior player over a cost difference of $100-$300K is pretty silly. It's gotta be cheaper in the long run to invest a few hundred thousand more dollars on draft day and develop MLB-quality players from within than it is to be stuck in the perpetual rebuilding/can't sign free-agents vortex.

On another note, I love how this thread went from a slightly-panicy Sox-are-sucking thread to a Yank's farm system love fest. Nice hijack!

j
   176. JC in DC Posted: August 13, 2007 at 07:02 PM (#2483544)
Larry and I discussed that a bit at the meetup, Loren. I like Cano too, but we both agreed that if somehow the Twins took him as the center piece of a deal, we'd move him for Santana.
   177. Loren F. Posted: August 13, 2007 at 07:17 PM (#2483563)
I like Cano too, but we both agreed that if somehow the Twins took him as the center piece of a deal, we'd move him for Santana.

Well, I'd do that too, because you find maybe one or two Santanas in a generation. There are probably a handful of other players for whom I would trade Cano, but fans of those teams would say the proposed trade was crazy. For instance, I would trade him for Hanley Ramirez. Or Grady Sizemore.
   178. JC in DC Posted: August 13, 2007 at 07:21 PM (#2483566)
Yeah, Larry thought the Twins would go for it; I was skeptical.
   179. JC in DC Posted: August 13, 2007 at 07:35 PM (#2483576)
From the Bergen Record:

Cano's batting average bottomed out at .236 on May 17, a time when "we weren't really winning, and it seemed like only three guys were hitting." Cano was referring to Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada.

That renewed Cano's just-get-on-base philosophy, which he still preaches to Cabrera.

"We help each other sometimes, we talk about the game, what we should be doing," Cano said. "When we get on base, these guys can do their job. With all these guys in our lineup, if we're on base, they have to pitch to them."


Cano apparently pulled Cabrera aside and explained that their jobs are to get on base. They've been doing that. I love these guys.
   180. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 13, 2007 at 07:48 PM (#2483587)
Or Grady Sizemore.

Don't get me wrong, I love Grady, and he's the better player right now. But considering the Yanks have Melky, and there are only three really good second basemen in the Majors right now (Roberts, Utley, and Cano), I don't know that I would trade Cano. In a vaccuum, yes, but given the Yankees current situation, I think it's debatable.

JC, Cano also has more walks then Ks since the All-Star break.
   181. JC in DC Posted: August 13, 2007 at 07:52 PM (#2483591)
JC, Cano also has more walks then Ks since the All-Star break.


I know, but he's also hitting about .450 over his last 100 or so ABs. He's gotta cool off at some point.
   182. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: August 13, 2007 at 07:53 PM (#2483592)
JC, Cano also has more walks then Ks since the All-Star break.
Since we're having the Cano lovefest--on a Sox therapy thread, no less--my favorite stat is that if he draws 5 more non-intentional walks this year he will match his total of non-intentional walks from the previous two years combined.
   183. 1k5v3L Posted: August 13, 2007 at 08:06 PM (#2483601)
2bmen with higher VORP than Cano: Utley, Roberts, Upton, Polanco, Johnson
   184. 185/456(GGC) Posted: August 13, 2007 at 08:08 PM (#2483604)
Darren, Bivens, kevin, Chris P:

WE MUST PROTECT THIS HOUSE!!!
   185. JC in DC Posted: August 13, 2007 at 08:10 PM (#2483608)
So, at worst Cano's the 6th best 2b in baseball, and he's 24. I'll take that, Levski, thanks.
   186. 1k5v3L Posted: August 13, 2007 at 08:10 PM (#2483610)
JC, I'll take that as well.
   187. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: August 13, 2007 at 08:14 PM (#2483614)
Espcially since Upton isn't really a 2B anymore.
   188. The Marksist Posted: August 13, 2007 at 08:22 PM (#2483621)
Darren, Bivens, kevin, Chris P:

WE MUST PROTECT THIS HOUSE!!!


Agreed.

Mods: lock this thread. If that's not possible, consider deleting.
   189. JPWF13 Posted: August 13, 2007 at 08:23 PM (#2483623)
2bmen with higher VORP than Cano: Utley, Roberts, Upton, Polanco, Johnson


2bmen with a higher warp1 than Cano: Utley, Kelly Johnson

2BMen with a higher WARP1 last 2 years combined: Utley (barely)
2B men with a higher WARP3 last 2 years combined (no one- Utley close second)

What the #### does Cano have to do to become a star other then play plus defense at an up the middle position while putting up a 130 OPS+ for two years?

good question- he's a better player than Soriano was OPS+ing 130 for the Yankees because he's much better defensively- rightly or wrongly Soriano was considered a major star at that point in time.
There was a rough offensive equivalence between Soriano at ages 26, 27 & 28 and Cano at ages 22, 23 & 24. Assuming that Cano's age is legit you'd have to also assume that Cano will have a much better career when all is said and done.
   190. villainx Posted: August 13, 2007 at 08:25 PM (#2483625)
I know, but he's also hitting about .450 over his last 100 or so ABs.


And he's only 24! I wonder what he is going to hit in his prime years. .550? That would be what, like, a record or something I bet.
   191. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 14, 2007 at 06:46 AM (#2484099)
YAY WAKEFIELD SACKS UP
   192. Phil Coorey. Posted: August 14, 2007 at 07:03 AM (#2484104)
Word on the street is that Clay is getting the Friday night game vs. The Angels. Think I read it on boston.com
   193. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq., LLC Posted: August 14, 2007 at 07:36 AM (#2484111)
Yeah, Larry thought the Twins would go for it; I was skeptical.


To be fair, I only thought the Twins would go for it at a certain time and a certain circumstance: next year's trading deadline if the Twins are completely out of it. At that point they know they're not keeping Santana, and Cano is exactly the type of player that teams are looking to trade for when they move their stars at the deadline.

My larger point was that, assuming the Yankees re-sign A-Rod, the acquisition of Betemit makes this deal doable from the Yankees' point of view, since Betemit can take over at second without the dropoff being too big.

The Twins would not go for this trade now, in the offseason, or if they are anywhere near contention in July. But if they're going to trade him, I can't see anybody making a much better offer than one centered around Cano.
   194. Dr. Vaux Posted: August 14, 2007 at 07:46 AM (#2484113)
If we can have a negotiating window to sign him to a 5-year extension, I'll trade Bonderman for Santana.
   195. Rafael Bellylard: The Grinch of Orlando. Posted: August 14, 2007 at 11:00 AM (#2484124)
Getting back to the Sox...

I'd like to see them get one more bat on the bench and dump the 12th reliever. This water-torture of watching weak hitters batting late in close games is only worsened by knowing the usual suspects are Hinske, WMP, Mirabelli and Cora are what's available.
   196. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 14, 2007 at 05:35 PM (#2484470)
Dump Hinske, use Brandon Moss.

Tavarez and Snyder seem redundant.
   197. Jay Seaver Posted: August 14, 2007 at 06:26 PM (#2484519)
Word on the street is that Clay is getting the Friday night game vs. The Angels. Think I read it on boston.com

Aw, come on.... I've got tickets the day game.

Wait, that means I get to see Beckett. I'll stop complaining (although I'm not sure how I get to ten games by Saturday and not yet see Matsuzaka).
   198. covelli chris p Posted: August 15, 2007 at 02:41 AM (#2485392)
nice win, huh?
   199. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 15, 2007 at 12:24 PM (#2485623)
-Amalie Benjamin reported that the Sox were not going to start Beckett and Schilling in the two halves on the double-header, which means they need to call someone up from the minors. Benjamin didn't appear to have any team sources, she just noted that Buccholz would be on normal rest for a Friday game.

-I only picked up last night's game in the 8th. How did Lester look? The play-by-play makes it look like there were quite a few deep fly outs, and that maybe he's still having the same hittability problems, but I didn't see him - were there visible improvements?
Larry and I discussed that a bit at the meetup, Loren. I like Cano too, but we both agreed that if somehow the Twins took him as the center piece of a deal, we'd move him for Santana.
You would? You'd make that sacrifice? Wow, get Terry Ryan on the phone right now. Better still, I heard he has ponies for everyone! oh, what a happy day.
   200. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: August 15, 2007 at 01:06 PM (#2485644)
You would? You'd make that sacrifice? Wow, get Terry Ryan on the phone right now. Better still, I heard he has ponies for everyone! oh, what a happy day.
You're just grumpy because Theo's 8-way trade with Manny, Pedroia, Lowell, and Wally the Green Monster going for Santana, Magglio Ordonez and Billy the Marlin (also being moved around the league: A-Rod, JJ Putz, the draft rights to Nikolai Bonds, the ghost of Phil Rizzuto, BJ and Justin Upton, Dimitri and Delmon Young, Bengie, Jose--but not Yadier--Molina) didn't work out.
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