It could be that they’re pitching better in general but had a couple bad outings against Baltimore skewing things - or that, with 10 of the 13 being against the O’s and Jays, they happened to have been facing some HR-happy teams in that span.

That's my first thought. The other three games were against a Rockies team that has 72 home runs (Toronto has 75) so they've been playing home run hitting teams. The other thing is it may literally be something in the air. During those 13 games when the Sox allowed 23 homers they've also hit 19 so it's probably a little of "the ball is just flying" thing going on too.

With that said I'm not entirely sold on the bullpen but as I mentioned the other day, I think the pieces are here. The thing we need is one of Hembree or Barnes to solidify a place in the bullpen rotation, to take on the role Carson Smith was supposed to play. I think that's possible.

Yes, the Smith injury hurts more than it seems. By that I mean that it wouldn't seem like the team would miss having him given they were winning without him for the first month or so. But an effective and healthy Carson Smith would have made that bullpen a lot stronger, and not having him does hurt.

I'm always hesitant to consider the Rockies a HR-hitting team when they're on the road. They would be at 66 home runs (vs. 63 MLB average) if their road pace were also their home pace. But this is a trifling concern, as the Baltimore/Toronto games are the bulk of the opposition (and the output).

I'm hoping Hembree is the one who steps up. I think he's capable.

General Sox question, with some bullpen relevance:
Sox pitching is 10th in ERA, but 4th in (lowest) OPS allowed. Bad timing? Luck? Clay can't concentrate with men on? :)

BP adj standings have Boston with the largest Negative deviation of actual W-L to stats-predicted W-L (-4.8 wins) in the AL.

other random note: MLC record for most doubles by a 40+ yr old is Sam Rice, with 35. Big Papi could pass him by the all-star break!

General Sox question, with some bullpen relevance:
Sox pitching is 10th in ERA, but 4th in (lowest) OPS allowed. Bad timing? Luck? Clay can't concentrate with men on? :)

I think the pitching is better than it seems. The problem is we can't find a way to fill the holes. Chris Hatfield made the point that we went into the season feeling good about our depth, of the 8-9 possible starters you had to feel like we'd find 5 who could do the job. So far, not so much. Buchholz, EdRod, Kelly, Johnson, Owens...all of them have been dramatically below expectations.

Casey Janssen is on his way, FWIW, with a few MPH added to his fastball.