Jordan Sheffield is not related to Gary Sheffield. Somehow that story got started when he and his brother Justus Sheffield, who pitches in the Indians system, were in high school but it's definitely false. They both laugh about it in interviews and then say they want to make their own names for themselves in baseball.

I like Sheffield a lot. He's short at 6'0 but he carries his 97 mph fastball all the way through 100 plus pitches. There's not a stamina question with him. And unlike almost every other college starter, he uses two secondary pitches (change and curve) in equal volume and to my eye, they both look like fine pitches. He gets dinged over of a lack of plane on his fastball and short track record of throwing strikes. I guess the first concern might be warranted but the second bugs me on his behalf. Yes he walked 6.45/9 in 60 innings in his first season, which was his sophomore season but that was his first season coming back from Tommy John. It's understandable that he would be rusty and not on his game. He's dropped his BB rate to 3.39 this year, which still isn't great but not overly concerning. As much as I can tell, he throws with a bit of effort but he repeats his delivery well with an arm action that's smooth, his arm speed is fantastic and he's a good athlete. There's a lot to like with him. He did get beaten up for 9 runs in his last start though, which came in the SEC tournament. That couldn't have left a positive impression but he does have an opportunity to impress in the postseason.

I don't know about Dakota Hudson. Much like Sheffield, his college track record mainly consists of his fine junior season but unlike Sheffield, that wasn't because of injury but an inability to throw strikes. He only managed to get 34 innings of action his first two seasons combined due to a BB rate of 5.03. To his credit, his BB rate has shrunk to 2.61 in 103.1 innings. Comparing him to Sheffield, he has more size (6'4), they have similar peak velocity but their arsenals are very different. Sheffield has the traditional FB, CH, CU mix while Hudson works with the Lester handbook, going heavily with a cutter that can morph into a slider as his primary secondary pitches with no change to speak of. His cutter comes in around 90-91 and can be pretty nasty. My concern with him is his arm action. There's more twisting involved than usual and I would be concerned about an injury in his future.

I doubt Alec Hansen goes anywhere in the first round, which is quite a drop for a player who was considered one of a handful who could go no.1 overall before the season. He started the season unable to last more than 4 innings in his first few starts due to control issues, then threw a fine game against UCLA that had people thinking he might get rolling, then actually pitched worse than ever and eventually got yanked from the rotation. After a few long man relief outings, he got back in the rotation and pitched a fine game, which again had people thinking that a strong finish could put him back into the first round. He disappointed in his subsequent start. I think the ship has sailed in regards to his first round prospects.

Hansen is a big mystery. His control numbers look horrible (5.91 in three seasons, 6.99 JR season) but in some of the games I've seen, he can pinpoint to the knees from a extremely steep angle at 97 mph. He's more gangly than 99 percent of pitchers and he bares his teeth as he releases the ball, registering off the charts in terms of facial effort. If he turns around in pro ball, he'll be following in the footsteps of another extremely wild Oklahoma pitcher with big time stuff in Garret Richards. In terms of raw stuff, he is so tantalizing. I could live with him with the 51 pick but the Red Sox don't have much of a track record of turning pitchers around so I don't know.

Thanks for that on Sheffield, I had read he was. I'll have to fix that.

It's beyond slim pickings among college position players. After Kyle Lewis, Corey Ray and Nick Senzel, who are considered locks to be taken in the top 10, the college position players as rated by Baseball America go Zack Collins (16), Matt Thaiss (28), Bryan Reynolds (31) and Buddy Reed (33). The first two are catchers, one of whom might stay at catcher (Collins) and one who definitely won't from all accounts (Thaiss). Bryan Reynolds looks like a jack of all trades outfielder who might be okay and Buddy Reed is a plus athlete with a really strong arm but has disappointed at the plate this season. This draft is pitching and more pitching and most of it is from the high school class too.

This high school pitching class though. From what I can tell, it looks like a doozy. Matt Manning came into the season highly thought of and then has refined his delivery (more online, tighter arm action) and increased his velocity up into the 97-99 range. The rumor is that he wants a big bonus in the 4 million range, which he might just get by going in the top ten or falling to one the of teams with huge bonus pools. He could be out of the Red Sox price range, which could be a big source of regret when looking back years from now. Or maybe not. Tough to say with high school pitchers.

Ian Anderson is as smooth and flexible as it gets on the mound. Braxton Garret is a lefty with a rare plus three pitch mix for a high school pitcher. He reminds me of Jaime Garcia, which is both good and bad. On the good side, he's got Garcia's 88-92 mph darting fastball, tight breaking ball and plus changeup but on the bad side, he's got his high elbow arm action. Consequently, he seems to put a lot of stress on his elbow when he snaps pitches off and I worry about how he'll hold up on a pro schedule. I doubt his fastball is going to be in the 92 mph range consistently on a pro schedule either just based on his arm speed and how he seems to rely a lot on his upper body.

Forrest Whitley is a Texas high school pitcher who I'd be 100 percent certain would be the Red Sox choice if Dombrowski still had David Chadd as his minor league guy because he's a big pitcher with big time velocity. He still might. He goes 6'7 with a big frame and has a really smooth motion that uncorks a fastball that can get into the high 90s and two good secondary pitches. He had a burly build before losing a lot of weight before his senior season and that has helped him maintain his stuff longer into games. His stock was high going into the season and has gone up.

I like some of the college pitchers but me personally, I would take one of the top high school pitchers at 12 and then go for a college guy with the 51st pick. Maybe Whitley at 12 and then at 51, maybe Corbin Burnes, who hails from St. Mary's and has nice athleticism and very good stuff or Ben Bowden, a MA native who unfortunately hasn't gotten many college starts on a loaded Vanderbilt staff but has the look of a potential starter with a big frame (6'4 and well built), smooth delivery and plus stuff.

Thanks Norcan. That is an amazing amount of information. I've seen Whitleys name bandied about a bit but it seems unclear if he might be a tough sign. Latest BA mock has Zack Burdi (21) going to the Sox with an eye toward him possibly being a Craig Hansen like who joins the club late in the year.

Collins reminds me an awful lot of Schwarber. Less hit tool and less surprisingly athletic, more of a three true outcome type, but fairly similar at the plate, maybe a 'C' and I suspect a late riser up draft boards. I think he goes higher than folks think right now, and I doubt the Sox could nab him. To steal a line, I think they run to the podium if he's there.

I'd like to see them take Will Craig if Collins and the other Top 10 locks mentioned don't slip. Some small sample Cape performances and a messy lower half aren't enough to scare me off someone that's performed that well.

I hate the Burdi idea.

The latest mock draft at BA has the Sox taking HS OF Taylor Trammell. I like this better than I like Collins. He's supposed to have excellent speed, he looks athletic to me and has a beautiful, quick swing.

I highly recommend the SoxProspects latest podcast which has an interview with JJ Cooper of Baseball America. It was recorded last week and released this week but it's great stuff on the draft.

I really feel like everything is pointed toward Zack Collins which...ick.

Final BA mock has the sox taking Groome, who is dropping due to signability. They'd have to blow 2/3 of their budget but yowza.

Wow. That would be fantastic.

Jason Groome. Love this pick. Might be a tricky sign. This from the BA write up;

Groome's fastball can reach into the mid-90s, touching as high as 97, and he shows the ability to locate the pitch down and to either side of the plate. As he settles in, Groome usually pitches in the low 90s, sitting at 90-94. His best secondary pitch is a menacing curveball, thrown with upper-70s velocity and plus bite. He'll have to work on staying on top of and behind the pitch more consistently, but it could develop into a plus-plus pitch down the line

If you want to dream that hook makes me think of Hurst.

I'm cool with them blowing a ton of money on Groome - all the big prospect outlets are super high on him. Seems like a safe bet, talent-wise.

Falling so far in the draft, and whispery concerns about make-up seem weird, though.

Groome is an amazing pick at #12. Even if they have to low ball every other pick by picking people way below slot it should be worth it.

After seeing him on a youtube video, I was honestly most impressed with a nasty changeup that he got a batter like 2 feet in front of.

CJ Chatham, shortstop. I don't know a damned thing but this from BA;

He's got a knack for making contact and some grit, having played through a bone chip in his right wrist this spring that caused him to get off to a slow start. Chatham's defense is the subject of debate, as he's tall and rangy for a shortstop at a listed 6-foot-4, 185 pounds

BA has him ranked 101st so he's not as much of a sign ability pick as I expected after Groome. Pretty happy for the first day haul.

Wow, so excited about Groome. It would have slayed me if they had passed on him. The guy has such a tantalizing mix of polish, stuff and projection. He might be the best pitching prospect in the organization already. As much as the Red Sox have struggled to develop young pitching, maybe it's going to take a pitcher who already has advanced mechanics and a great breaking ball to be a homegrown pitcher.

I thought the Red Sox would have to take a big underslot player at 51 in order to be able to afford Groome but they have 1.1 million total with their 3rd and 4th round picks. CJ Catham doesn't seem like an underslot guy or a big one anyway so I guess they'll be saving money with their 3rd and 4th picks.

The whole saga around Groome's vague character concerns was unusual for the baseball draft. I can't remember the last baseball player who dropped in the draft because of character concerns. You might have to go back to someone like Elijah Dukes in 2002. There wasn't another player picked in the 2016 draft yet who's had supposed character concerns. You see character concerns bandied about much more in the NHL and NFL draft. In that context, I guess maybe teams had a good reason to pass on Groome but damn, so long as his character concerns don't involve his coachability or competitiveness or criminality, who cares? He could be Curt Schilling off the mound, which hopefully he isn't, but if he's Schilling on the mound, I'll take him.

I wonder what Groome's bonus demands are. I've heard things from wanting top 3 money, which could mean he wants something over 6 million or top 8 money which could mean 3.6 to 5 mil. Conjuring out of thin air, I'd guess 4-5 million. There's no way the Red Sox didn't have financial parameters worked out to some degree before taking him. The selection of Chatham at 51 could shed some light on his bonus demands. In some ways it looks like Chatham was a bit of an overdraft based on where he was rated by various sites but players go higher than their rankings frequently without it being a bonus shifting selection. I think it's doubtful that Groome wants 6 million because if that was the case, the Red Sox couldn't have taken a player like Chatham who looks like he's going to require at least half of his bonus slot (600 K).

Ideally Groome signs for 4 million, leaving the Red Sox opportunities to go after some high upside or draft slot "appropriate" players with their later picks. Regardless, I can't believe they're were able to bring such a talented pitcher into their organization.

Chris Hatfield of Sox Prospects tweeted out last night that his off the cuff reaction was that Groome would rank 7th on the SP top prospects list right now. Just to run the top 10 with Groome slotted there;

Moncada
Benintendi
Espinoza
Devers
Travis
Kopech
GROOME
Johnson
Lakins
Hernandez

The Herald article about Vanderbilt moving on from Groome before he decided to attend Chipola is a bit of a worrisome wrinkle in this whole, vague character concerns affair. If such a storied program with a great track record doesn't want one of the best prep pitchers in the country, there had to be some major turn offs. Just speculating based on the party rumors or whatever having too much fun means and his video feature on mlb.com, but maybe he liked reaping the benefits of his celebrity a bit too much. I guess that could lead to some valid concerns about what could happen with hanger-ons, nightlife control, etc once he came into millions of dollars. While he's oh so young, these teams have done this for quite awhile. I hope he doesn't turn into another John Denney or something.

As ecstatic as I was with the Groome selection and still am, it's kind of a downer that it likely hamstrings the rest of their draft. It'd be nice if they could pounce on some of the high upside prep arms available like Nolan Martinez or Adam Laskey or take a potentially high quality college pitcher like Corbin Burnes.

The Sox gambled on Buchholz in 2005 in somewhat similar circumstances and that worked out. If Groome has Buchholz' career both on and off the field that's going to be a pretty good return on the pick. 15 WAR would make him the best pick since Jay Bruce in 2005 at that spot.

Third Round - Shaun Anderson RHP (junior at Florida)

Baseball America:

He has a 93-95 mph fastball that can bump 96, and he's shown the ability to command the pitch. He throws a hard slider at 84-88 with deep 11-to-5 break; it projects as an above-average pitch.

I'm a bit surprised at this one. He's ranked #151 by BA so like Chatham he's likely to go a bit below slot but I really thought this would be a college senior pick to try and take some money for Groome. The SoxProspects guys did a short podcast last night and suggested that the Sox would be on the phone last night and have a pretty good sense of what they needed above the $3.2 slot for Groome. That they've gone for a player not ranked dramatically below his draft spot who has the option of going back to school makes me think that Groome's number is not as over the top as we might be expecting.

The Herald article about Vanderbilt moving on from Groome before he decided to attend Chipola is a bit of a worrisome wrinkle in this whole, vague character concerns affair.

But aren't a lot of Groome's 'issues' dealing with his mid-year high-school transfer from Florida to NJ? Vanderbilt may actually be putting academics first here and passing on a recruit that may not be eligible to play his 1st year.

The Sox gambled on Buchholz in 2005 in somewhat similar circumstances and that worked out. If Groome has Buchholz' career both on and off the field that's going to be a pretty good return on the pick. 15 WAR would make him the best pick since Jay Bruce in 2005 at that spot.

This has always confused me somewhat--and not just in baseball, in basketball too... Shouldn't we be looking not just at slot #12 but a range of slots when trying to figure out value-for-slot numbers? Because it seems players (esp. in 1st round) slide up and down all the time for various reasons.

Put another way: shouldn't we compare the WAR value of a pick at #12 to the overall rolling WAR average of picks in, say, the 5 slots above and the 5 slots below the pick? (Which in this case would be slots 7-17.) Wouldn't that give perhaps a better understanding of the traditional "value" of the 12th pick (instead of looking solely at who was drafted #12 in the last X drafts)?

Maybe this is already baked in and I just don't know about the methodologies used? (Very likely, I'll totally cop to not being up on such matters.)

TE - Definitely. If I were doing any kind of serious look at the draft I think I would go with pick +5. I think you block out picks before it because you don't have the chance to draft that player (e.g. a player taken at 11 would never be at 12, the Sox decision was between #12 and the guys taken 13-17). I don't have that ability or time available. With 50 years of picks I'm relatively confident that for purposes of a smell test just looking at that slot works well enough.

Of course if BBRef makes it easier to select a series of slots I'm all for it.

Fourth Round - Bobby Dalbec - 3B/RHP (junior at Arizona)

Baseball America:

Most scouts still see Dalbec as a hitter, but his pitching has intrigued, and he was sidelined in early May by an undisclosed injury, clouding his draft status even more. His defense has improved this spring, as he's shown better hands and a quicker first step, giving some evaluators confidence that he could play third base at the highest level.

#118 on BA's top 500 list, drafted #118 overall. I'm surprised again. Sox aren't backing down, they are taking good players through here. I'm assuming they have deals in place with these guys and are confident they will get to the number they need for Groome.

But aren't a lot of Groome's 'issues' dealing with his mid-year high-school transfer from Florida to NJ? Vanderbilt may actually be putting academics first here and passing on a recruit that may not be eligible to play his 1st year.

He moved back home before the school year. There have been no undue hardship on his academics unless it was self-inflicted.

I've been pleasantly surprised that they haven't taken a bunch of underslot senior guys on day 2. It took until the 7th round for them to pop a senior. All of their picks before seem like slot appropriate guys. I guess it's possible Groome might sign for 4 million.

My favorite pick of day 2 is Mike Shawaryn who might have been a late supplemental guy coming into the season. He has a nice track record (mostly very good college performer, pitched for team USA) but seems to have dropped off due to some midseason struggles, which he bounced back from late in the season and possibly due to an unusual arm slot for a starter. From what I've see and read, he has a slider that can get out righties and a nice changeup to deal with lefties and his fastball is solid at 90-94. He seems to have a really nice feel at release. He looks like a potential starter to me. If he can't hack it in the rotation, his arm slot and breaking ball could make him a nice reliever. The Red Sox have struggled to develop those as well so I'll take him.

Keith Law in his chat answered the topic of Groome's makeup concerns a bunch of times, first starting off with describing them generally such as immaturity/idiocy, then going into how he can't go into specifics because of legal reasons and maybe ethical reasons as well but claiming that he researched and knows what some of the issues/events are but that he would still have drafted him top 3 anyway. In his final answer he seemed to come out and say that the concerns were drinking related. If that's the case and Groome went a bit overboard with the drinking and partying, I could understand why teams would be justifiably concerned about taking him out of high school so high in the draft. It also makes sense why a team like the Marlins with their history of Jeff Allison, who was into harder stuff than Groome as far as I know, might have taken Groome off their board.

Surprised to see them take Alan Marrero in the 8th round. I thought the senior in the 7th was going to touch off a run of them up to the 10th round. Marrero is a 18 year old Puerto Rican catcher who was ranked in the late 400s by baseball america. Presumably he's not going to net them 100 K plus savings for their pool.

I really like what they've done in the draft so far. I like that they've taken pitchers who have faced good competition and who have good stuff, be it as a starter or reliever. It's not a stretch to see pitchers like Anderson, Shawaryn and Nogosek be future major leaguers. Odds are against it because a team's draft never has contributors round after round but who knows. If they can sign Groome to go with this solid pool of college draftees, that'd be very good.

After looking at the bonus history in the stupid draft pool era since 2012, I think Groome would do very well to come away with a 4 million dollar bonus. It's been about a top 5 bonus. There's been one year with 5 bonuses of that size or greater, two with 4 and one with 3. Now, he might think he deserves to not just be in the top 5 but near the top based on how he stacked up in the rankings but there's no way the Red Sox can afford that with the probable savings from their other picks. For Groome to get into the 5 million range or more in the next draft, he's going to have to go top 4 and while he certainly could, that's quite a risk, although maybe not from his perspective.

I see four locks to get 4 million plus bonuses this year: Moniak, Senzel (who just go 6.2 which could be the highest bonus), Pint (who's rumored to get near slot value of 5 mil), and Puk. Corey Ray's slot was 4.3 and he might get that as well. Matt Manning apparently had a huge bonus demand and with his slot value being 3.5 mil, he might get 4 mil plus too. If Groome gets 4 million, I think he'll be no worse than 7th.

he's going to have to go top 4 and while he certainly could, that's quite a risk, although maybe not from his perspective.

That's my thinking too. The advantage he has is that he's a high school senior and a young one at that so he gets a couple more shots at this if he wants. I'd be surprised if he walks away from a $4 million offer.

6th rounder Stephen Nogosek tweeted out that he's on his way to Lowell. I haven't read that he's signed but I assume that means that he has an agreement in place. That's a $281K slot so that's worth watching to see how much he got.

That's my thinking too. The advantage he has is that he's a high school senior and a young one at that so he gets a couple more shots at this if he wants. I'd be surprised if he walks away from a $4 million offer.

Yeah, Groome being so young (won't turn 18 until August, 11.5 months younger than Pint) for his class is a huge advantage. If he enters the draft next year, he'll still be younger than a bunch of a high school kids who got drafted this year. Of course he has to stay healthy and perform well but if he does and makes teams more comfortable with whatever his makeup issues were, I think he'd be the odds on favorite to go no.1 overall next year.

I've read about how next year's draft class is going to be better and from a high school position player perspective, it might be but it's easy to see negatives being attached to a lot of the college arms listed by baseball america. First the college pitchers have to perform up to expectations and that's no given as seen by this draft. Beyond that, Tanner Houck has an unusually low release point for a starting pitcher and pitchers like that always get dinged. Alex Lange is a max effort pitcher who lands way open; no way he doesn't get a reliever tag. Alex Faedo had a great season but he was dogged by lack of athleticism issues going back to high school and those still remain. JB Bukauskas has a killer fastball and slider combo but he's much shorter and lacks a third pitch currently. Tristan Beck's stuff has to take a big leap. I think Groome would've ranked above all these guys this year from a talent perspective.

A 4 million bonus looks like a sizable offer but I could see Groome thinking differently. It wasn't a good sign that he declined to participate in the standard post draft media conference apparently because the two sides are far apart in money right now.

If he doesn't sign (and is the only draftee who doesn't sign) the Sox get the 13th pick next year, right?

If he doesn't sign (and is the only draftee who doesn't sign) the Sox get the 13th pick next year, right?

Yeah, I think so. I guess the comp pick is one lower than the previous year's?

I wish some of the bonuses of the Red Sox draft picks could be revealed like some of the other teams picks have so we can get a sense of what the offer could be for Groome. The bonuses of Cincinnati's top 4 picks have already been revealed and how they fit like a jigsaw puzzle. A bunch of Yankees signing bonuses have been tweeted out. Nogosek is already headed for Lowell so he's already signed. Dalbec and Shaun Anderson are both headed to the college world series so I don't know if that complicates them getting officially signed or not. I figure they must have agreements on the money but maybe they won't be revealed until they're official?

I do feel bad overlooking some of the draft picks and thinking they're just underslot players meant to create signing room for more prominent guys. The twitter pages of guys who got drafted like Matt McClean and Santiago Espinal are naturally filled with tweets about how honored and excited they are to get drafted. They certainly are setting out ready to give pro ball their best and here's me looking pass them. I feel cruel.

I didn't know Shaun Anderson started in the summer leagues the past two seasons and did well. I saw one inning of his in the SEC tournament and it was a weird look as he threw this weird, half-baby slider a lot that looked like it was invented to give up home runs in the majors. His delivery looked a bit wired to be a starter but a power reliever would be just fine.

Keith Law in his chat answered the topic of Groome's makeup concerns a bunch of times, first starting off with describing them generally such as immaturity/idiocy, then going into how he can't go into specifics because of legal reasons and maybe ethical reasons as well but claiming that he researched and knows what some of the issues/events are but that he would still have drafted him top 3 anyway. In his final answer he seemed to come out and say that the concerns were drinking related.

If a journalist can't discuss something because of legal/ethical reasons, I'm going to assume that his research turned up unsubstantiated, conflicting, or unconfirmed allegations. Could be something to it, could be nothing.

Hannable has quotes from someone at IMG Academy who basically said he had no problems with him, thought he was a good kid who took instruction well, and that he was likely homesick - which is not uncommon at that academy.

Yeah, I think so. I guess the comp pick is one lower than the previous year's?

This is correct. If you don't sign the #12 pick this year, you get the #13 pick next year.

Looking at the history of 11th round picks in the draft pool era, I'd say there's a good chance that Quintana will sign. Since 7 11th rounders went unsigned in the first year of draft pools in 2012, only 4 haven't signed since and two of them were by Toronto which has also had trouble signing 1st rounders and 2nd rounders at times. Baseball America had Quintana as a possible top 3 round talent so maybe he'll sign for a bonus of 400 K to 800 K, although the latter seems unrealistic. I don't know if things are more complicated this year because of the funds needed to sign Groome. Depending on how much Chatham signed for, I guess it's possible they could distribute 1 million combined to Groome and Quintana.

CJ Chatham signed for 1.1 million, netting about 110 K in slot savings. He was rated 60th by MLB and 101 by Baseball America and was drafted at 51. His bonus was about the amount of the 58th pick.

Shaun Anderson might end up being their biggest underslot guy. He was rated 140 and 151 by MLB and Baseball America respectively but went 88th. Of course he might have been higher in Boston's board but you can't afford to pick a guy that much higher than what industry consensus might be and pay him full slot in the bonus pool system. Slot value at 88 is around 700 K so if he gets the slot value of 135 which is 425 K, they'll save 275 K.

I don't know how barebones they'll get with the senior signings but I guess they'll save at least 300 K with Ryan Scott and Matt McClean. Add all those underslot savings with the 350 K bonus overage and they could have at least 1 million to distribute between Groome an Quintana.

So this from Chris Hatfield on Twitter;

With announced and reported signings, plus the 5 pct cushion on top of cap, the Red Sox have created $872,870 of money to distribute.

This would put them at $4,065,670 for Groome. Slot value at the number five pick (he said he wants "top five" money) was $4,382,000. If both pieces of this are true (and I trust Hatfield) it's hard to believe this doesn't get done.

According to Speier Groome is in Boston for a physical. 5PM deadline tomorrow.

So pleased Groome ended up signing (3.65 million). He didn't quite get top 5 money or 4 million but he did well for himself, getting the 8th highest bonus and the 4th highest among high schoolers depending on Braxton Garrett's bonus, if he signs. His signing makes losing Espinoza a little easier. As promising as Espinoza is, Groome has to be right there with him. 6'5 lefty with a smooth delivery who can touch 96, sit 91-94, with a knockout curve and a promising changeup is drool-worthy. Oh and I think he was something like the 3rd youngest player in the draft. He's going to be 18 all next season.

They also got Dalbec done. I really think Dombrowski killed it with the draft. After they took Groome I thought they would be drafting a bunch of below slot guys but while they did go down the board on a few guys they didn't go outrageously low. Chatham, Anderson and Dalbec are all top 150 guys. I really thought they had to get to 4 million to sign Groome but it sounds like he wanted to sign.