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Friday, May 07, 2021

Finally Lining Up the Minors

At long last minor league baseball is back in full swing!  There have been some changes since we were last here in September of 2019.  The Pawtucket Red Sox are now the Worcester Red Sox, the Lo A Greenville Drive are now the Hi A Greenville Drive while the Hi A Salem Red Sox are now the Lo A Salem Red Sox.  Most heartbreakingly for your faithful correspondent the SS-A Lowell Spinners are no longer a Red Sox affiliate.  I can’t overstate how many wonderful nights I had at LeLacheur Park watching young players play.  I remember this shortstop the Spinners had, made a couple errors, struck out a couple times, I knew then he’d never amount to anything.  Think he plays for the Dodgers as an outfielder now.  Clearly couldn’t hack it on the infield.

Anyway.  The Sox farm system has been radically improved over the last year so let’s look at some guys who might be worth knowing in the coming months and years.  As always if you are interested in this stuff I am getting a lot of info from Sox Prospects who do an amazing job with the system.

1B - Triston Casas - Portland (AA) - Casas looked not at all out of place in Spring Training.  In a perfect world the Sox 1B-3B-DH alignment in two years is Casas-Dalbec-Devers. Best case scenario this year is a move to Worcester at some point and a September call up.  In all likelihood he’s on the shuttle in 2022 and a regular in 2023.

Dream Scenario - Freddie Freeman
Old Man Note - He was born a month after the Sox signed Manny Ramirez.

2B - Nick Yorke - Salem (Lo A) - The off the board pick of Yorke was roundly criticized as yet another cost savings move by the Sox.  However, the Sox used the money to buy out high school slugger Blaze Jordan from his college commitments and so far Yorke has done nothing but impress. Widely considered the best high school hitter heading into the aborted 2021 season Yorke looked good in Fort Myers.  As a high school shortstop he is fairly new to second base and it is going to take some time.  2024 is probably a best case for Yorke.

Dream Scenario - Jeff Kent
Old Man Note - Johnny Damon’s first Red Sox game was the day before he was born.

3B - Blaze Jordan - Fort Myers (Rookie) - Jordan is a Project and that capital P is not a misprint.  Despite being just 18 he has already shown tremendous power potential winning the high school home run derby at the 2019 All Star Game. Like Yorke it will take time but if either Yorke or Jordan pans out that alone is going to be a feather in Chaim Bloom’s drafting cap.  His ETA is a TBD situation for now.

Dream Scenario - Troy Glaus
Old Man Note - The Sox acquired Todd Walker a week before his birth.

SS - Matthew Lugo - Salem - Carlos Beltan’s nephew is described in terms similar to Beltran.  Not as good obviously but an all around player with great instincts for the game.  Frankly when I read about him I find myself thinking of Dustin Pedroia with the all around game of a young Pedroia to match. Like Yorke he’s probably a 2024 ETA.

Dream Scenario - Dustin Pedroia
Old Man Note - On his 6th birthday Daisuke Matsuzaka defeated Tomo Ohka and the Blue Jays 9-3.

OF - Gilberto JImenez - Portland - Speed.  That’s the word you are going to hear when his name comes up.  It really is just insane.  No really, here he is beating out a routine grounder to second base. I wasn’t kidding, dude is crazy fast.  I saw him in Lowell (RIP) a couple times and it is crazy to see the speed up close.  The Sox Prospects guys say he’s got some power in his game as well.  ETA 2023.

Dream Scenario - Carl Crawford (the Tampa Bay version)
Old Man Note - Ramon Martinez was the Red Sox starting pitcher when he arrived on planet earth.

OF - Jarren Duran - Worcester - I don’t really have a lot to offer on Duran that you probably don’t already know.  He’s off to a slow start for the WooSox (oh I don’t like that) but as the parent club has shown maybe the first three games of a season aren’t predictive.  His ETA is any time now though Franchy Cordero’s three hit day yesterday probably bought some wiggle room.  Duran and Casas are scheduled to play for the team USA Olympic qualifying team at the end of the month though I suspect if necessary the Sox will say “not so fast Jarren.”

Dream Scenario - Johnny Damon
Old Man Note - First player I’ve profiled not born in the 21st century.

OF - Jeisson Rosario - Portland - Acquired in the Mitch Moreland trade Rosario is a speed merchant with very little power.  His future probably is fourth outfielder but as the SoxProspects guys say if he can utilize his speed on the bases and in the field he can be a regular.  Probably a few years away despite being in Portland.

Dream Scenario - Willie Wilson?
Old Man Note - Was eligible for his first legal alcoholic drink in the US during last year’s World Series.

C - Ronaldo Hernandez - Portland - Every story about him talks about him using the “one knee on the ground” catching technique that the Sox are going to in their system.  By all accounts it is improving his defense.  I dunno, your guess is as good as mine.  He’s a hitter first as he was an infielder originally with the Rays shifting him to catcher.  I think his defense can be summed up by this phrase at SoxProspects “(t)ype of defensive profile that could really benefit from robot umps.”

Dream Scenario - Jonathan Lucroy
Old Man Note - Born one week before the Red Sox traded for Pedro Martinez

SP - Aldo Ramirez - Portland - The Sox have had some luck in their Mexican League scouting in recent years and hope that Ramirez is another success story.  Not a guy that is considered a huge prospect but more a fill the rotation type.  Everything I’ve read suggests he doesn’t really have one lights out pitch but a good mix and an understanding of how to use it.  It’s going to take some time for him to pull it all together.

Dream Scenario - Bronson Arroyo
Old Man Note - Johnny Damon played against the Sox for Oakland when he was born.

RP - Josh Winckowski - Portland - Part of the haul from the Andrew Benintendi deal Winckwoski is still hopeful of being a starter with most thinking he’s likely ticketed for the bullpen.  If he can develop a third pitch the rotation might have some chance but for now he seems to be a fastball/slider type (not unlike Tanner Houck).  I can see him on a pretty fast path to the bigs potentially arriving next year if he’s a reliever.

Dream Scenario - Daniel Bard
Old Man Note - The day he was born the Sox lost to the Marlins. It was the first MLB victory for rookie Ryan Dempster.

Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 07, 2021 at 09:39 AM | 54 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Bad Fish Posted: May 10, 2021 at 12:31 PM (#6018029)
A mid-march article on MLB.com ranked their system as the 24th best in baseball with only 3 top 100 prospects, 2 in the 40's and Dalbec who was ranked in the 90's. Each team in their division was ranked ahead of them with Tampa, Baltimore and Toronto all in the top 10. We have three PTNL coming from the Beni trade, one from the Mets, who is speculated to a fringy top 100 prospect to go on the 40 man, and two from the Royals. Whitlock is probably still considered a prospect and his stock has got to be rising fast.

The economics of prospects is fascinating to me. Their value is largely speculative and as a result they are frequently overvalued so I don't get any particular heartburn from trading them for actual talent. But if you don't have them you quickly end up holding yourself hostage to the lone strategy of having buy talent to be competitive or deciding to suck. The fastest way to restock the cupboard is to trade talent to contenders mid-season, but if your are competitive that is hard to do. Frankly, I'm not impressed the with likes of the Astro's and Devil Rays who will always spin talent for prospects, I'm impressed with the Yankees and Dodgers who always seem to pull or materialize good players our of their system and also stay competitive year-in-year-out.
   2. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 10, 2021 at 01:51 PM (#6018044)
I don't think the Astros/Rays approach is bad and they deserve credit for it but the development of players is something the Yankees have been exceptionally good at for a long time.

And frankly, the Sox were too. What was Theo's line? The "hundred million dollar player pipeline?" I mean the they kind of got that right. This is an all Theo drafted/signed all star team;

1B Anthony Rizzo
2B Dustin Pedroia
3B Travis Shaw
SS Xander Bogaerts
LF Jacoby Ellsbury
CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
RF Ol' Whatshisname for the Dodgers
C Christian Vazquez
SP Clay Buchholz
RP Jonathan Papelbon

That's just a quick off the top of my head team so maybe/probably I missed someone. And while never the biggest Cherington fan in the world the development continued to be very good under his watch even if the drafting/signing wasn't as impressive (and he had some big hits, Devers, Benny). He held onto the right guys and traded away the right guys (e.g. Devers over Moncada in the Sale deal). There's no reason the Sox can't get back to that, it will take some time.

This isn't to brag on Theo or ##### about Dombrowski but to note that it's doable. I think Bloom is getting them there. I'd guess they are a top half of the list team at this time next year, particularly if they get it right next month in the draft when they have a huge opportunity to hit a home run. One thing about picking fourth is that it seems to me that there are a consensus top four so as long as they don't go wildly off the board they are going to make the "right" pick there, it's just a matter of having it pan out.
   3. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 11, 2021 at 07:36 AM (#6018213)
e.g. Devers over Moncada in the Sale deal


Not to take away from your overall point about Cherington on the whole trading well (outside of his chasing bullpen arms), but is there really any separation between Devers and Moncada? Devers may have a higher ceiling due to his bat, but Moncada is better in every other phase of the game. I think those two are still to be determined.


I think what has made the Yankees so good (and the Dodgers are doing as well) is their ability to forecast salaries and never get in the bind the Sox did with Betts. Yes, they sign a large contract or two seemingly every year, but they also have one coming off the books. Not only do they have a high payroll limit, they also use it well.
   4. villageidiom Posted: May 11, 2021 at 08:02 AM (#6018214)
Not only do they have a high payroll limit, they also use it well.
They have one championship in the last 20 years to show for it - arguably, partly because they hardly ever got into the bind the Sox did with Betts.
   5. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 11, 2021 at 09:17 AM (#6018222)
They have one championship in the last 20 years to show for it - arguably, partly because they hardly ever got into the bind the Sox did with Betts.


At a certain point team comp be damned, players need to play well to win the WS. They may not have had as much post season success as the Sox but they have put themselves in contention almost every year.

And the snark about Betts is just that. The moves made *after* their 2018 win were what completely tanked their payroll flexibility. There were quite a few short-sighted choices made to try and 'keep it all together and go for another one' without thought for 2/3 years out.
   6. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 11, 2021 at 09:45 AM (#6018226)
but is there really any separation between Devers and Moncada? Devers may have a higher ceiling due to his bat, but Moncada is better in every other phase of the game. I think those two are still to be determined.


I'll admit the numbers suggest Moncada has been better than I realized. Devers is two years younger which is a big point in his favor but yeah you make a fair point, it's a lot tighter than I thought.
   7. Darren Posted: May 11, 2021 at 11:43 AM (#6018251)

I think what has made the Yankees so good (and the Dodgers are doing as well) is their ability to forecast salaries and never get in the bind the Sox did with Betts.


Not to disagree with you about the Yankees and Dodgers, who both do an excellent job, but how do you think they would have handled the Betts deal differently or better? I guess they could have just offered more earlier and gotten a deal done. If that's what you're saying, I can't really argue, but I don't see it as definitely working. I think once the team realized that they were not going to sign Betts, they did about as well as anyone could have.
   8. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 11, 2021 at 12:12 PM (#6018258)
Not to disagree with you about the Yankees and Dodgers, who both do an excellent job, but how do you think they would have handled the Betts deal differently or better? I guess they could have just offered more earlier and gotten a deal done. If that's what you're saying, I can't really argue, but I don't see it as definitely working. I think once the team realized that they were not going to sign Betts, they did about as well as anyone could have.


I think they let themselves get boxed in by not identifying soon enough that Betts should be their #1 priority and every move they make should be with him in mind. Who knows, maybe they did, maybe there was an understanding that they just weren't going to offer enough to keep him, or that he wasn't going to be worth what it would cost to keep him. The trade is what it is, I just don't think they should have let themselves get to that point.
   9. Bad Fish Posted: May 11, 2021 at 03:45 PM (#6018321)
Without the Moncada trade we probably don't have 2018, in hindsight it's a trade you make every day. Plus at the time there was something of an impending infield logjam with X, Moncada, Devers and Pedroia.

I'm with Darren, they eventually decided they were not going to be able to sign Betts and used the cash to extend Sale and Eovaldi.
   10. Darren Posted: May 11, 2021 at 04:36 PM (#6018335)
Jacksone, it sounds like we sort of agree? What do you think the Dodgers or Yankees would have done, though?
   11. villageidiom Posted: May 11, 2021 at 05:01 PM (#6018345)
Plus at the time there was something of an impending infield logjam with X, Moncada, Devers and Pedroia.
The only reasons not to trade Moncada for Sale are if you were going to trade Moncada for someone better than Sale or trade Devers for someone worse than Sale. Or, I suppose, teach one of them to play 2B and take Pedroia out to a back alley and shoot him. The logjam was a thing.

I'm with Darren, they eventually decided they were not going to be able to sign Betts and used the cash to extend Sale and Eovaldi.
I don't want to do Mookie Betts Contract Argument v12.7 but I don't think we can say that's what the decision was. They were still discussing contracts with Betts after the Sale/Eovaldi extensions.
   12. villageidiom Posted: May 11, 2021 at 05:13 PM (#6018347)
I think they let themselves get boxed in by not identifying soon enough that Betts should be their #1 priority
Has there been a time when the front office in the Henry ownership years made any impending free agent on their roster their #1 priority? I get the argument that if they're going to make an exception Betts is exactly the player they should use it for. But I'm old enough to remember that they let Pedro Martinez walk, too.

They kept Ortiz, but negotiations with him never seemed like "we MUST sign him", nor did his contracts seem to reflect that approach. Maybe a case could be made for Varitek, but that seemed like an inevitability on both sides.
   13. SandyRiver Posted: May 11, 2021 at 05:38 PM (#6018352)
But I'm old enough to remember that they let Pedro Martinez walk, too.


Wasn't a trade, but Branch Rickey's "better a year early than a year late" might apply here. Petey had one good year with the Mets and then was pretty much done.
   14. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 11, 2021 at 07:14 PM (#6018374)
Jacksone, it sounds like we sort of agree? What do you think the Dodgers or Yankees would have done, though?


The Yankees pretty clearly would have just paid him and gone over the cap. They were over the cap for 15 straight years, got under in 2018, and have now gone back over the past two years. I don't know the Dodgers history enough to intelligently answer that, but I certainly haven't heard any warnings that they are considering not re-signing Kershaw, Bett's equivalent in their org.
   15. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 11, 2021 at 07:59 PM (#6018380)
I don't want to do Mookie Betts Contract Argument v12.7


Then don't. I understand you would prefer to be over it and move on, but I'm not there yet, nor ever will be. You don't need to try and prevent others from discussing it though.
   16. villageidiom Posted: May 11, 2021 at 10:20 PM (#6018447)
You don't need to try and prevent others from discussing it though.
I'm not trying to prevent others from discussing it. I'm saying *I* don't want to cause the thread to be derailed, while clarifying something that was brought up about the Betts trade.

Threads are still open for on-topic discussion of the Betts trade. When I set that one up I put a very late closing date on it because I figured people would want to revisit it from time to time. Have at it.

I don't know the Dodgers history enough to intelligently answer that, but I certainly haven't heard any warnings that they are considering not re-signing Kershaw, Bett's equivalent in their org.
According to Cot's tracker - which I can't stop saying great things about - the Dodgers were under the tax threshold in 2019 and 2020. They are over for 2021. They have $44 million in non-Kershaw free agent AAV coming off their books at the end of this season, which isn't enough to get them under the threshold, but it's a lot. Even then, they have another $41 million in non-Kershaw AAV coming off their books at the end of 2022. If they sign Kershaw for $30 million per year, they still have a path to getting under the threshold by 2023 - assuming the threshold isn't drastically changed by then.
   17. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 12, 2021 at 09:16 AM (#6018506)
Looked like a really nice day at Polar Park yesterday. With luck I'll get out there sooner than later. Gotta be honest, really impressed Cousy can still get around.
   18. Darren Posted: May 14, 2021 at 02:51 PM (#6018851)
Woo hoo:

Casas: .313 .371 .625
Duran: .314 .400 .686

I repeat. Woo hoo.
   19. Darren Posted: May 14, 2021 at 02:55 PM (#6018852)
Also, Gilberto Jimenez keeps moving up and keeps hitting. .351 .415 .432 this year in A ball. Him taking a step forward in power would be great, but he already looks like a good prospect.
   20. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 14, 2021 at 03:05 PM (#6018853)
If you get a chance to see him in person you have to do it. The speed is otherworldly. It's one thing to see it on YouTube or Twitter but to see it in person is something else.
   21. Darren Posted: May 14, 2021 at 04:04 PM (#6018861)
Fangraphs knocked him down from an 80 to 70 speed in their most recent prospect lists. Interesting in light of that video you shared above. Holy moly.
   22. Darren Posted: May 19, 2021 at 04:37 PM (#6019721)
I would like the PTBNL now please. I'm very certain they are big stars.
   23. Darren Posted: May 21, 2021 at 11:58 AM (#6020056)
How sure are we that Gilberto Jimenez isn't our #1 prospect? 20 years old in A ball, 3 more hits last night bring him up to .390 .446 .475. Career minor league numbers: .344 .394 .447, great speed, recently added good weight.
   24. Textbook Editor Posted: May 21, 2021 at 12:40 PM (#6020062)
So my question would be: How much service time shenanigans can we expect with Casas & Duran this season? Because I'm sure there's a balancing act here that is being weighed... I have no idea what Bloom's philosophy/approach is on that front, and it seems like it could come into play.
   25. Darren Posted: May 21, 2021 at 01:20 PM (#6020075)
My guess would be that that won't come into play this year. They are practically at a point when they wouldn't qualify for Super-2, and neither is playing well enough to force their way onto the team. On top of that, who knows what the new CBA will mean for service time issues?
   26. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 21, 2021 at 01:29 PM (#6020078)
I don't think there is much to be expected. As I understand it both guys are well past the point where the Sox have the extra year on the back end (2027 instead of 2026, god I'm old). So Duran comes up when the team thinks he's ready at this point. I know he's scheduled to be with the US Olympic qualifying team at the end of the month so I wonder if the Sox are waiting until that is over to get him here.

For Casas I think I want to pump the brakes a bit here. He's an exciting prospect with definite star potential. But he's a 21 year old kid hitting well in Portland (.291/.361/.473), not a 21 year old kid Ellsburying it (.452/.518/.644 in 17 games before promotion).

Recent events probably make it worth questioning the Sox' motives re: money but they don't have a track record of unnecessarily holding people down that I recall. JBJ is probably the most famous example and while they got the extra year eventually they put him on the Opening Day roster. I'm probably missing someone but off the top of my head there is no one they kept in the minors in what seemed like a transparently financial reason (e.g. Kris Bryant).

Rusney I guess though I think that's a bit different and it is worth noting that Rusney wasn't really ripping it up in Pawtucket. You can make a case he deserved a spot in 2017 ahead of Chris Young but Young had been terrific in 2016 for the Sox so I understand not wanting to cut bait on him too quickly.
   27. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 21, 2021 at 01:34 PM (#6020082)
How sure are we that Gilberto Jimenez isn't our #1 prospect? 20 years old in A ball, 3 more hits last night bring him up to .390 .446 .475. Career minor league numbers: .344 .394 .447, great speed, recently added good weight.


I think it's probably reasonable to say he's the highest ceiling prospects the Sox have (unless you count Noah Song). I think his floor is considerably lower than the position players ranked ahead of him (Casas/Downs/Duran). At the very least those three guys should have MLB careers of some sort. Jimenez is still in Lo A and while he's added some weight his ISO is just .085 so it hasn't translated yet. I'd put Duran ahead of him on the basis of simply being the MLB ready prospect right now and Casas based on a mix of being a lot closer to the bigs and having legitimate star potential. I'd probably have Downs ahead of him also but I'm not sure of that and if you want to tell me Jimenez' potential outweighs Downs' floor you won't get an argument from me.
   28. Darren Posted: May 21, 2021 at 03:01 PM (#6020099)
BTW, what is "Low A"? Is it A ball? Or is low-A in the way that Lowell used to be?

Edit: And Jose, that all sounds reasonable to me. I usually prefer guys who have reached the higher levels and seem more likely to succeed too. I could see Downs, Duran, and Casas being ahead of him, quite reasonably. I was just pointing out how great he's been.
   29. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 21, 2021 at 03:13 PM (#6020104)
Salem is the new Greenville and Greenville is the new Salem (they are determined to be difficult).

Basically the minors are structured;

AAA (Pawtucket/Worcester)
AA (Portland)
Hi A (Greenville now, Salem in recent years)
Lo A (Salem now, Greenville in recent years)
Short-Season A (no longer exists, this was Lowell)
Rookie Ball (Fort Myers, generally just called "Gulf Coast League Red Sox")
Rookie Ball DSL (Dominican Republic, there are actually two teams)

Looking at Soxprospects.com there is also a "Rookie Camp" listed this year which is also in Fort Myers. Not quite clear to me how this is different from GCL. I suppose it's just rehab assignments.

I agree on Jimenez. He's certainly opening some eyes. He's definitely a guy to watch.
   30. Darren Posted: May 21, 2021 at 03:26 PM (#6020106)
Thanks Jose.
   31. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 21, 2021 at 11:34 PM (#6020193)
Salem lost to the Fredericksburg Nationals tonight 2-1. Aldo Ramirez 4 innings allowing 2 runs (1 earned). That’s noteworthy as Fredericksburg was 0-15 and had been outscored by 115 runs coming in.
   32. Darren Posted: May 22, 2021 at 04:42 PM (#6020282)
Jimenez is up to .400
   33. Darren Posted: May 22, 2021 at 07:05 PM (#6020306)
Duran 5-5 tonight!
   34. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 23, 2021 at 08:44 PM (#6020486)
And Casas homered again today.

It’s amazing how the feeling around this organization has spun in the first 7 weeks of the season. Not only is the big league team outplaying expectations but the system is looking much better. It’s great to see top prospects delivering so far.
   35. Darren Posted: May 24, 2021 at 03:56 PM (#6020601)
I have to say, I don't like the Major League team having a day off and all of the minor league teams being off as well.
   36. Darren Posted: May 26, 2021 at 11:45 AM (#6020914)
Regarding the PTBNL coming in the Benintendi trade, there seems to be a consensus that they won't be much. That makes sense for the two players coming from the Royals. They already gave up Cordero and Lee in the deal, a couple of throw ins to round it out makes sense. But on the Mets side, it looks to me like the Red Sox are due something reasonably valuable. Khalil Lee is the #8 prospect in the Mets system now. All they've given up for him so far is Garret Whitlock, who is now #30 in the Red Sox system. For the Red Sox to have made this deal, wouldn't they have to be getting someone pretty close to Lee in value? Like someone in the 10-15 range?
   37. Buck Coats Posted: May 26, 2021 at 11:52 AM (#6020917)
Whitlock was the Rule 5 pick, they got Josh Winckowski from the Mets (who is not in the top 48 on Fangraph's list at least)
   38. Buck Coats Posted: May 26, 2021 at 11:54 AM (#6020919)
He is ranked #27 on soxprospects.com though
   39. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: May 26, 2021 at 01:03 PM (#6020935)
Regarding the PTBNL coming in the Benintendi trade, there seems to be a consensus that they won't be much.


Where are you seeing this? I recall reading the expectation is that at least one of the PTBNLs was expected to be of some value.
   40. pikepredator Posted: May 26, 2021 at 01:22 PM (#6020938)
It’s amazing how the feeling around this organization has spun in the first 7 weeks of the season. Not only is the big league team outplaying expectations but the system is looking much better. It’s great to see top prospects delivering so far.


It's all just so much fun. TC was talking on WEEI before last night's game about the next 15 games being the true test to see if this team is for real and it was kinda sobering in that "I don't want to wake up to the reality of being a .500 team just yet . . ." And then they had the first couple innings where they stacked the bases but couldn't quite deliver and it seemed a bit too poetic.

This write-up gives me more things to be hopeful about in the event that the MLB guys come back down to earth a bit.
   41. Darren Posted: May 27, 2021 at 11:47 AM (#6021104)
Whitlock was the Rule 5 pick, they got Josh Winckowski from the Mets (who is not in the top 48 on Fangraph's list at least)


I will never stop mixing these two names up.

Where are you seeing this?


In my head, I guess? :) I don't know, in reading around various Sox sites, it seems like there's a belief that none of the prospects will be close to as good as Lee, but I suspect at least one will be very close.
   42. Nasty Nate Posted: June 01, 2021 at 04:14 PM (#6021861)
According to this, the PTBNLs will be named soon. The article backs up Darren's idea that the one from the Mets is assumed to be the best.
   43. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 04, 2021 at 07:34 PM (#6022604)
First player is the Met contribution. 19 year old outfielder named Freddy Valdez who Keith Law ranks 13th in the Met system. He’s described as “plus plus power” but may not put the ball in play enough to use it. Baseball America called him a good teammate with a “strong competitive makeup.” He hasn’t played this year but hit .274/.367/.448 in Rookie ball in 2019 with 6 homer in 230 PA as a 17 year old.

The Royals will be kicking two players our way.
   44. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: June 04, 2021 at 07:48 PM (#6022607)
Eric Longenhagen had Valdez at No. 18 in the Mets system.


Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 50/55 20/55 40/30 40/45 45


Valdez is an absolute behemoth of a corner outfield prospect who is likely to end up in the Franmil Reyes size/strength area at maturity, though right now he’s built a little more athletically than that. This guy makes the bat look like a toothpick in his hands and he has thunderous raw power with pretty crude feel for contact coming from a swing that scouts don’t really like. His 2019 exit velos are below what you’d probably guess from someone this big and strong who performed the way he did in the 2019 DSL (certainly they’re below what I’d guess). I think that’s more an in-game contact quality indicator, but a front office source from a team that seems to like contact-oriented players told me they thought Valdez should be higher here. I’m more inclined to move a guy like this after he performs on paper and I think Valdez is physically mature enough to be tested in full-season ball this year. (Fall Instructional League)


   45. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 04, 2021 at 07:56 PM (#6022608)
And it’s done. The Royals send 2019 3rd pick Grant Gambrell (RHP) who BA says has a 4 pitch mix with a “wipeout slider.” The other guy is Luis De La Rosa who seems to be an 18 year old lottery pick.
   46. Nasty Nate Posted: June 04, 2021 at 08:40 PM (#6022616)
Why hasn't Valdez played this year?
   47. Darren Posted: June 05, 2021 at 03:02 PM (#6022744)
Kind of a blah return. This result makes me think that I've been thinking about this wrong. I was thinking that the Red Sox acquired Lee, someone the Mets' GM likes, figuring they could get some well-regarded prospects for him. But with what's coming back, it looks more like the Red Sox acquired Lee (knowing the Mets' GM liked him) so they could get some guys who THEY specifically valued more than most.
   48. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 06, 2021 at 12:28 AM (#6022811)
I don’t know why Valdez hasn’t played this year. Except for three games at the end of 2019 his experience is all in the Dominican league so I’m guessing he was being held back a bit. Probably playing at the Mets extended spring similar to what the Sox are doing with a few guys (most notably Blaze Jordan) who will play for their Fort Myers rookie league team.
   49. Darren Posted: June 07, 2021 at 04:16 PM (#6023016)
New rankings from BA are out:

Casas - 27 (was 38)
Duran - 29 (was 86)
Downs - 68 (was 59)

Seems that they think Duran is legit!
   50. Darren Posted: June 11, 2021 at 11:03 AM (#6023762)
Casas at AA: .329/.414/.526 (Olympic Qualifier stats: .400/.471/.533)
Duran at AAA: .259/.364/.600 (Olympic Qualifier stats: .368/.400/.526)

Dalbec in MLB: .192/.242/.365
Santana in MLB: .116/.208/.302

Bonus!
Franchy at AAA: .400/.444/.760
   51. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 11, 2021 at 11:12 AM (#6023763)
Duran's AAA numbers are being inflated at Polar Park. Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects commented on that this morning. As a team the WooSox have 33 homers in Worcester and 15 on the road. He's still got about a .190 ISO (Duran not Hatfield) in road games but not the .500 he's got in Worcester which has played like Lancaster.
   52. Darren Posted: June 11, 2021 at 11:17 AM (#6023765)
Interesting. Casas is just the opposite. .566 OPS at home, 1.148 on the road.
   53. Darren Posted: June 16, 2021 at 04:59 PM (#6024604)
Fangraphs updated rankings:

Casas - 42 (55 grade)
Downs - 50 (50 grade)
Duran - 72 (50 grade)
   54. Darren Posted: June 18, 2021 at 02:18 PM (#6024973)
How sure are we that Gilberto Jimenez isn't our #1 prospect? 20 years old in A ball, 3 more hits last night bring him up to .390 .446 .475. Career minor league numbers: .344 .394 .447, great speed, recently added good weight.



How sure are we that I'm not a jinx? Jimenez is down to .283/.317/.362

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