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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Monday, July 10, 2023Halfwayish to SomethingWith the baseball world taking its traditional midseason break it’s time to revisit the local nine and how things rolled in the first half; MVP - Alex Verdugo - I think you could go a number of different directions here. Depending on how you want to look at it I think you could make a case for Verdugo, James Paxton, Brayan Bello and even Jarren Duran. But in the end I’m going with Dugie. A bit of a…something in Cleveland when he was benched for failing to hustle on a ground ball but he rebounded from that to play very well. It’s really the response you would have wanted if you were Alex Cora or just a Red Sox fan. Cy Young/Rookie of the Year - Brayan Bello - Listen, James Paxton has been masterful but hoo boy has Bello been special. I don’t think I’m being an unreasonable homer when I say the present and the future are very bright with this talented youngster. Mariano Rivera - Chris Martin - Kenley Jansen gets the glory of the saves and the All Star Game, Josh Winckowski gets the “where did he come from” buzz but it’s Martin who has been the rock. A 1.57 ERA in 30 appearances and only three free passes. Chaim Bloom can be rightly criticized for a number of things but it is to his credit that he aggressively addressed the 2022 club’s biggest flaw with Martin and Jansen. Best Surprise - Jarren Duran - Did you see this coming? Yeah neither did I. He has suddenly turned into a legitimate piece of the puzzle going forward. Biggest Disappointment - Corey Kluber - There were a few options here but for me it’s Kluber. I think heading into the season it would have been more than reasonable to expect him to replicate the work of Michael Wacha last year but holy hell has he been horrendous. His control has abandoned him and he’s giving up home runs at an epic rate. This is not a combination for success. Most Underrated Story - Masataka Yoshida is actually good - The Sox regular cleanup hitter is not exactly an afterthought but it seems to be a bit of an under the radar thing. The Sox were roundly criticized in more than a few corners for spending like they did on Yoshida. 78 games into his Major League career that is looking like a steal of a deal. At current rates a 5 year, $15/per year deal for a 3+ WAR outfielder is highway robbery. Games of the Year (so far); April 1 - Bal 8 - Bos 9 - After a disappointing Opening Day loss the Sox were in a 7-1 hole after 2 1/2 innings. They rallied but as with the Opener it looked like it would come short when Masa Yoshida’s fly ball settled into Ryan McKenna’s glove. McKenna closed that glove a bit too early keeping the game alive and Adam Duvall slammed one into the Monster seats. Those first two games kind of set the tone for a team that has battled all year. April 23 - Bos 12 - Milw 8 - The Sox trailed the Crew 4-3 headed to the top of the 8th. Justin Turner and Yoshida went back to back for a 5-4 lead and the rest of the inning featured more hits than a Taylor Swift album capped by Yoshida’s grand slam. April 29 - Cle 7 - Bos 8 - Blowing a 6-1 lead late was frustrating and going behind in the top of the 10th was irritating. Christian Arroyo singled home Manfred Man Enmanuel Valdez and after a sac bunt and a passed ball Verdugo singled to end it. May 1 - Tor 5 - Bos 6 - The AL East in general and the Blue Jays in particular were a bugaboo in 22 (ooh that rhymes). The clubs went back and forth with an E6 proving costly for the Sox in the Toronto 8th. Dugie led off the bottom of the ninth against Jordan Romano and…kaboom. June 9 Bos 3 - NYY 2 - Fear no one. The Sox haven’t been pushed around by good teams as they were in 2022 and few games sum that up like this one. Undefeated Gerrit Cole in the Bronx? No problem. Cole was good but Garrett Whitlock was better. Kenley Jansen secured the save (thanks to Volpe’s rocket going juuuuust foul) and the Sox had another big win. July 2 - Boston 5 - Tor 4 - One of the frustrating aspects of this Sox team is that it often feels like we know the result before the game. Bello, Paxton or Houck pitching? Hey this should be fun. Someone else pitching? Uh oh. Whitlock got the call in this one but only pitched one inning. The Sox needed the back of the bullpen to pick things up. Brennan Bernardino, Kaleb Ort, Nick Pivetta, Chris Martin and finally Joe Jacques worked the final eight innings. Meanwhile the Sox scored twice in the seventh thanks in part to some daring base running from Justin Turner that evoked Jonny Gomes scoring from second on Opening Day in the Bronx. The game was tied at 4 going to the ninth, Romano vs. Verdugo again. Rinse, lather, re-kaboom. Big Second Half Questions 1. How will Chaim Bloom approach the trade deadling? 2. Does Trevor Story have anything to offer? 3. Can Duran, Connor Wong and Triston Casas solidify themselves as everyday players moving forward? Jose is an Absurd Sultan
Posted: July 10, 2023 at 03:38 PM | 81 comment(s)
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1. dirkAgreed w/Dirk on Story - he was good at one time but may have fallen off the proverbial cliff.
But the kids . . . man, they are fun to watch! Great players to root for, give the fans that something extra in terms of energy and excitement. Apparently it was a bit controversial but I love the Casas post-walk scream after that (14?) pitch AB.
Yoshida has been a revelation for sure and seems to be getting better as opposed to pitchers figuring out how to pitch him. If he's the Red Sox version of Hideki Matsui, fantastic.
I also think the longer deployment of relievers - not just pivetta but the 2 IP stints by Winckowski et al - are an important development.
Side note: I just noticed how close the Sox/Yanks/Jays/O's are in run differential. Curious. And another positive sign!
I'm hoping he'll be wheedling and deadling! :) Seriously, I want to see what he can do to add a starter to the top half of the rotation and make a run at a playoff spot.
2. Does Trevor Story have anything to offer?
Yes, I think. Maybe. I hope so. He was good last year in the time he played but his recovery is a mystery.
3. Can Duran, Connor Wong and Triston Casas solidify themselves as everyday players moving forward?
I feel good about Duran and Wong at least being contributors. Duran is likely an average player or maybe a bit better and Wong looks at least like an okay to slightly below half of a catching tandem. I like Casas too and his steady improvement after his tough start has been encouraging. But as of now, he's got 386 PAs in the Majors and -0.2 WAR, thanks in part to pretty ugly defense. I feel pretty confident he'll be an averagish player in the long run, but those numbers temper my enthusiasm.
79.5 Wins - OVER. Mid-80s, in contention for a Wild Card.
14.5 Sale starts - OVER. He heads into the year healthy so what could possibly go wrong?
24.5 Casas HR - OVER. Tough one. I think he is going to swing for the fences a bit more and, if he stays healthy all year, that gets him into the high 20s at least.
3.0 Verdugo WAR - OVER. Another close call. He's a good hitter and appears to have readjusted his approach to fit his strengths.
Turner/Duvall more HR - Duvall. I'm assuming he gets 400+ PA.
19.5 Whitlock starts - OVER??? I added a couple question marks. I think they will give him as much chance as possible to stick in the rotation, but usage, effectiveness in longer outings, and health are all question marks.
44.5 Devers doubles - UNDER. Very close. I think he'll have an excellent year but right around 40 doubles.
94.5 Devers walks - UNDER. The rest of the lineup isn't bad enough to push his walk total this high.
Marcelo Mayer MLB debut - September 23, 2023. One day after VI's guess so that if he debuts any time after that, I am righter than him. (Yes, I watch the Price Is Right, why?)
49.5 Rafaela prospect ranking - NA. Cannot be ranked because he will have used up his eligibility on the second half, playing an amazing CF for the big club.
Bonus:.300 Masataka Yoshida batting average -- OVER. Both ZIPS (.305) and Steamer (.299) project him to have the highest batting average in the AL. I like him.
A very mixed bag. Wins are looking good, as are Verdugo's WAR, Devers walks and 2Bs, and Yoshida's BA. The two that are really up in the air right now are Whitlock and Sale. I could see both or neither reaching those numbers.
I've been thinking about Verdugo and Devers a bit lately. Last offseason, Verdugo was called out publicly by Cora for his conditioning and his play, which he responded to by showing up in better shape, hustling more, playing better D, and having a better approach. He then got pulled and benched for not hustling. Meanwhile, Devers has always struggled with his conditioning (which seemed to catch up with him last year), occasionally doesn't hustle, and has made some notable and costly mental mistakes. The team rewards him with the biggest contract in team history and not a bad word is said about him.
I know, it's about the talent and that's why he got the big deal. But I am surprised that Cora hasn't challenged him a bit more.
(*) I've got acquaintances who will jump on any sign of something like this to speculate that Devers is neuro-divergent, and there would be a weird irony if a MLB player who could actually benefit from ADHD medication was not taking it. Mostly, though, I'm figuring some guys will just get worse when criticized in public by someone they trust, which seems much more likely than the old cliché of players who "just can't handle New York/Boston/etc."
Just for the hell of it I compared him to Anthony Rizzo (a player I think is probably a good analogue of what I expect Casas to be). Rizzo's stats;
2011 - 49 games - .523 OPS/51 OPS+
2012 - 87 games - .805 OPS/116 OPS+
And Casas;
2022-4/30/23 - 52 games - .576 OPS
5/1/23-present - 53 games - .794 OPS (eyeballing probably about 107 OPS+)
There are areas I'd like to see some improvement but I think he's doing what we'd want. Again using that 5/1 cutoff the first basemen with a better OPS than him are; Freeman, Olson, Belt, Yandy Diaz, Arraez and Goldschmidt. FWIW I use that May 1 cutoff in part because it supports my argument but also because after dropping to a .133 average he got a couple days off. Alex Cora has done this with others, JBJ particularly, where a couple of days off has triggered a prolonged stretch of success. I don't know if it's working things out in the cage or just a mental thing or just random timing but it's happened. I think Casas is doing just fine. Is he a star? No but he is and will continue to be good to very good.
If we instead include all of his games, he's:
career: 386 PA, 104 wRC+, 0.1 WAR
2023: 291 PA, 99 wRC+, -0.2 WAR
He isn't currently good. He's currently below average. He has to improve over what he's been doing since 5/1 to be even average. I am confident he'll be able to improve that much. I think that's completely fair.
Are you confident he'll be in Anthony Rizzo's class as a player?
If I were the team, I would definitely approach him about a Braves-like extension that buys out arbitration years and a few free agency years. Since May 3rd, his line is: 212 PAs, 9 HRs, .281/.368/.497. His BABIP is .336, but it was so low the first month of the season that it is still only .286 for the season. He can hit, he's made adjustments, and I am comfortable saying that I think we've found our first baseman for the next half dozen or more years.
I don't know if we'll be in the playoff hunt for the duration of the season, but I know this: Whenever you have a season where you are winning more than half your games while also:
- identifying your 23-year-old 1B as a legit long-term answer
- establishing your 24-year-old prospect as a legit frontline starting pitcher
- hitting on your only long-term free agent signing in several years (Yoshida)
- locking down your franchise centerpiece (Devers) for effectively the rest of his career at the age of 26
- watching your potential franchise SS continue to move up the farm system at the age of 20 to AA
then it is a pretty successful season for the long-term. Other guys, like Crawford, Duran, Wong, Murphy, and Winckowski, are fitting nicely into complimentary roles that suggest they can also be pieces of a long-term, successful franchise rebuild. I wish Whitlock and Houck could stay on the field, but in terms of trying not to sacrifice the future while finding ways to be competitive right now, Bloom and his team deserve credit.
Keep in mind that I'm not saying he won't improve, nor that they shouldn't lock him up for a few years. I'm just saying if they lock him up they should be paying him for who they reasonably expect he will be as a hitter and assume he will be defensively who he is right now.
What's the rush? He's not going to be Super 2 and he's not winning rookie of the year, so he's not going to be making real money until for another couple years. Sure, if you can get him to sign an Albies-esque deal, go for it. But other than that, let's see how the rest of the year goes at least.
Even better, he's locked up a couple years past the end of his career!
Yeah, that's why I think it's got to be concentration or something. There's no way he got this far without learning to catch the ball better than he has been.
I was poking around on BREF and noticed the Sox are actually quite old. Second oldest pitching staff in MLB, and not that far off with fielders. That sort of frustrates me. Guess I just see it as a microcosm of what is 'wrong' with the team. Don't get me wrong, they have exceeded my expectations by far, and are pretty enjoyable to follow, but I am still dissatisfied. I want them to go on a losing streak and wake up and realize this is not a playoff team. I want any and all short term players to be traded for whatever they can get. Kike Hernandez? Fire into the sun. Duvall? Trade for *anything*. Paxton? Trade for *something*. Jansen, Martin, trade, trade. There is a good core to the team now, I do see that, but it's just not enough to actually compete this year or next. They do have some good pitching prospects, but they lose Paxton after this year, and they lose Sale after next. Unless the team is suddenly going to open its check book, those are some serious holes to try and fill with prospects. Jansen and Martin are also gone after next year, not nearly as much of an issue, but something to be addressed.
And for ##### sake, Trevor Story better come back and play 2B not SS. Only the pathetic A's are worse at 2B. Just put him there, plug one giant hole, go from literally the 2nd worst in MLB to above average, and then try and fix SS. Don't try and get cute and put him at SS and go from shitty to passable.
Also, I have to remind the group that a long time ago I said Kike was not an everyday player. He's an adequate CF, but barely, and they need a better bat SOMEWHERE, so Duvall made Kike unnecessary there.
Nice! Now do the rest!
Is BBTF officially dead? Or is it the security thing that's scaring folks away?
Much like the Red Sox season, BBTF has life in it yet!!
Couple of great games against the Barves. Here's to hoping they can navigate the bizarre travel and game schedule of late July before returning for a long and winnable homestand.
There is help on the horizon, too. August is usually the dog days of summer but as the heat and humidity in NE appears poised to break and reinforcements are on the way, I'm excited for what is to come!
I know I don't post much here but I appreciate those who do. Generlaly I enjoy a slower-paced forum as I just don't have the personal time to follow and stay current with fast-moving threads. This place is my speed and I appreciate y'all.
Much like the Red Sox season, BBTF has life in it yet!!
Couple of great games against the Barves. Here's to hoping they can navigate the bizarre travel and game schedule of late July before returning for a long and winnable homestand.
There is help on the horizon, too. August is usually the dog days of summer but as the heat and humidity in NE appears poised to break and reinforcements are on the way, I'm excited for what is to come!
I know I don't post much here but I appreciate those who do. Generlaly I enjoy a slower-paced forum as I just don't have the personal time to follow and stay current with fast-moving threads. This place is my speed and I appreciate y'all.
I read somewhere about him prattling about the team not reaching out to discuss an extension. I could be way off the mark, but there seems to be an attitude problem at times with this guy. He's got talent enough to be a solid, 3WAR player, but just seems to lose focus at times, or something.
Those 2 narrow loses to SF were tough. The team was really rolling, and I know you'll drop close ones to good teams away, but a real shame they couldn't hold on in either of those.
It's always hard to know from our perspective but I got the impression that with the rumors about him being dealt, reporters asked him about being extended. He did sound a bit disappointed about it, but again, hard to tell without being there. One thing seems clear: someone (or maybe multiple people) in the org does not like Verdugo.
Talk about futility: Oriole pitchers strike out 20 on Sunday night (a club record I believe) then 10 more pinstripes flail away last night, setting an all-time futility record.
Who can’t be thrilled with that!
Talk about futility: Oriole pitchers strike out 20 on Sunday night (a club record I believe) then 10 more pinstripes flail away last night, setting an all-time futility record.
Who can’t be thrilled with that!
I don't know if they don't like him but I think they are (correctly IMHO) viewing him as a player good enough to keep around while he's under club control but not worth spending big on. He's here for another year and for whatever reason he is much better defensively in right field than in left field. Yoshida-Duran-Verdugo works for me this year and next with someone to be a right handed caddy whether Duvall or someone similar.
Not to toot my own horn, I'll just kindly remind everyone of this piece of prescience from 6 or so weeks ago.
And that aside - come on, removing one game from someone is not slicing and dicing splits. I am not picking 'the last 28 days' to suit my narrative, as adding in the 29th, 30th, and 31st days adds an 0-9 with no BB and 1 HBP to his line, but surely you knew that. Nor are his stats all different before and after the game, suggesting some huge fix that happened - his season before was .671, and after .673. That leads me to believe his true talent at the moment is probably closer to .670 than .750.
Guess which hitter with a .676 OPS this is about!
It's a bummer that Wong has fallen off. He can look so good sometimes, hitting the ball the opposite way for singles and occasionally crushing HR to left. Hopefully, can maintain this level or bump it up a bit as the season goes on.
Thinking back to 5 months ago . . . I had zero expectation that I would be excited for the WC race. Bring it on!!
"it's over, it's always been over"
In all seriousness, as the site fades out, it's been a very welcome distraction over the past 15+ years. I wish you all the best, and hopefully this drags on for a few slower paced years.
Someone else opined though that's it's nice to just sit around on your metaphorical couch with a bunch of close mates you've know for a number of years and just chat about baseball in a thoughtful manner.
Which works great for me as I'm about the least sabermetricky poster here, but I like the company here and the posters, for the most part, seem like pretty decent people.
Also, the Sox just swept NY....again this year.
The next 10 games against the Astros and Dodgers will be tough, I don't have high hopes, but hey you never know.
As Jose points out, where is Clapper to tell us what the Red Sox are doing wrong?
That aside, let's give 'em all a break. There isn't enough interest in their chosen teams to sustain dialogue on this site, so they come here because occasionally we talk about their chosen teams. And we certainly don't have a monopoly on discourse about what the Red Sox are doing wrong. Those folks are part of the fabric here. We can certainly enjoy Boston sweeping New York, but fans of a 4th-place team throwing stones at fans of a 5th-place team just because we can isn't really the way to live. It especially isn't great when those particular fans are people who actually choose to hang here. Like, they could be elsewhere hanging out with people who think Paul O'Neill's number should be retired throughout MLB like Jackie Robinson, or whatever. Maybe they do that, too, but I think we all know they don't.
In the meantime, Boston has a brutal schedule over the next 9 days: 3 at Houston, 3 vs. the Dodgers, 3 more vs. Houston. Hold on to your stones.
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