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Sox Therapy — Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox Monday, June 27, 2022Hey NowAll-star voting has begun, and various Red Sox players have various vote totals*. Let’s take a few minutes to consider the case for them by position. *I was trying to come up with an evergreen statement on the vote status. This might have gone too far. I could be talking about Brayan Bello, or Walt Dropo, for all you can tell. Catcher: Christian Vazquez. Deserve? No. This whole exercise germinated in my head from hearing Dave O’Brien say the other day that Christian Vazquez needs to be seriously considered as a starter for the AL All-Star team. Look, I know not to take seriously the local team broadcasters’ opinions on ASG starter viability, and I certainly know not to take the evaluation of O’Brien seriously. But hey, Vazquez has been hitting well lately, and catcher is not much of an offensive powerhouse position to begin with, so let’s check it out. When I do that… Well, Vazquez is no better than the 3rd best catcher in 2022 in the AL East alone. Alejandro Kirk is combining Salvy Perez-ish defense with 10 HR and 10 doubles in his first full season in MLB, at age 23. Jose Trevino is the classic “didn’t do much elsewhere, mashing in his first year with the Yankees” candidate, carrying a 122 OPS+ and defending well. And the Adley Rutschman Era in Baltimore has started well enough – though due to a late start he’s only played about a month’s worth of games. Vazquez would slot in above Rutschman in All-Star worthiness, but this might be the last season in which that’s true. Looking outside the division the Mariners’ Cal Raleigh, the Rangers’ Jonah Heim, and KC’s Perez are the best of the bunch, and all arguably doing better than Vazquez this year. First Base: Bobby Dalbec. Deserve? HEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL NO We all know Vlad Jr. will win the starting role, but does he deserve it? Well, yeah, of course he does; he’s already a legend. You can absolutely make the case instead for the AL Central duo of Luis Arraez, who’s not strictly a 1B but has been handling it often enough to merit consideration there, and Jose Abreu who is absolutely a 1B. You can make a stronger case for Ty France, who has 24 XBH and a yes-this-is-a-skill 14 HBP to date. And you can make a “reputation + team” case for Anthony Rizzo, who would have Vlad Jr. status if he weren’t in the same league as Vlad Jr. Honorable mention goes to Ji-Man Choi, who is mashing the ball at Rizzo/Abreu levels. When Boston faces Tampa in the next few weeks he’s the batter I worry about more than you’d probably think I should, but I’m right to think that way. I realize I’ve been avoiding mentioning Dalbec in this writeup. He doesn’t even deserve mention. He is probably the least qualified potential All-Star among Boston’s regulars. Franchy Cordero deserves an All-Star berth at 1B more than Dalbec, and Franchy might only deserve to go to the All-Star Game with a ticket. If Dalbec has a ticket he deserves to have it taken away. Second Base: Trevor Story. Deserve? Maybe Story had a dreadful start to the season but has been making up for lost opportunity since then. Maybe he’ll be the most deserving candidate by the time voting closes. But there are three reasons he doesn’t deserve it right now. Those reasons are Gleyber Torres, Jose Altuve, and Andres Gimenez. Altuve is the better hitter with the better hitting reputation, and though his defense is slipping a bit (at 32 he is an old man for 2B now) the ASG is not a defensive game. Torres continues to get Jon Sterling to say whatever it is he says when he thinks Torres has hit a home run, but definitely in the same tier on offense AND with great defense is Gimenez. Like, whatever we think Story is supposed to be, in 2022 Gimenez has already been. The answer for Story right now is no, but it’s not out of the question that he’d earn the spot soon. Third Base: Rafael Devers. Deserve? YES He’s basically been 2022 Mike Trout but at 3B. The only thing that would work against Devers is he’s in the same league as Jose Ramirez. Everyone else is as far back of these two as any other AL team is back of the Yankees right now. They will both make the team, and they will both deserve it. Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts. Deserve? YES Again, I’ll say it: the ASG is a hitter’s event, not a fielder’s event. You have to be otherworldly at defense to merit ASG selection, at a premium non-catcher defensive position. And I’ll be willing to admit that many SS have had good defensive seasons, Jorge Mateo in Baltimore being a great example. And someone from Baltimore has to make the team. But nobody from Baltimore is required to be the starter. Left Field: Alex Verdugo. Deserve? No First of all, just no. Like, you can make a stronger case for Joey Gallo, and Joey Gallo does not deserve to be on the team. So let’s just set them aside and focus on the players who deserve it. And, really, there’s one left fielder who deserves it: Austin Hays. There is your Designated Baltimore Oriole. A strong case could be made for backup roles with old friend Andrew Benintendi, who at age 27 is finally returning to the form we’d hoped from him a few years ago. The Guardians’ Steven Kwan would be another fine choice, and honorable mention goes to… y’know what? No honorable mentions. The rest of the outfield reserve roles will likely go to CF and RF, and they’ll deserve it more. But if we were to give honorable mentions there’d still be like a dozen people to name before we get to Verdugo. Center Field: Kike Hernandez. Deserve? NO Y’all are aware of Mike Trout. He still exists. But here’s a wrinkle: Aaron Judge has played more games (36) and more defensive innings (311) in CF than he has RF (35 and 226.2, respectively) this year. If we’re going to decide who’s in what position based on where they’ve played the most, Judge is a CF. And Judge is the only other outfielder in the AL who is hitting like Trout. The ballot does not distinguish among outfield positions anyway (which might mean trouble for Austin Hays after all) but if we’re going to make the artificial distinction of merit by position, both Trout and Judge absolutely deserve it. Byron Buxton will be one of those guys who deserves a slot over your various left fielders, and he might not even make it – George Springer is currently 3rd in outfield voting, and he’s hitting around the same as Hays, with many other outfielders hitting better. Hernandez deserves mention, but not for an All-Star role. Give me a minute, and maybe I’ll come up with something**. **I didn’t come up with anything. Jarren Duran is worth mentioning. That’s all I have. Right Field: Jackie Bradley, Jr. Deserve? HAHAHAHAHAhaha… oh, wait, you were serious? NO By position, this is Kyle Tucker’s spot. Remember how I’ve been saying it’s about the offense and not the defense? Well, Tucker is second to the Angels’ Taylor Ward in hitting for RF. Tucker is hitting well but Ward’s OPS is 100 points higher. But that’s, like, half a win of offense? Tucker is like a win and a half better on defense. If we were selecting based on position and needed two RF then you just take both of these guys and be done with it. But Tucker is above average at everything you want from a RF, and in a game that will be focused on hitting and pitching a solid defensive RF – considerably more solid than Ward has been – is an entertaining addition. I’d say give it to him. The next tier down has Max Kepler and Manuel Margot, and then if you ignore defense entirely you also get Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Santander, and Andrew Vaughn (who is on the ballot as a DH). You get a few more tiers, then 50 feet of crap, and then there’s JBJ. Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez. Deserve? Well… JDM is good. He’s really good. But, honestly, Yordan Alvarez has been a LOT better. From a WAR view he’s been worth two of JDM. So, yeah, Alvarez deserves the start. Except… There’s this other guy. An occasional pitcher. There’s no world in which Shohei Ohtani doesn’t deserve this spot, even if someone else does. And, like, they’re not going to carry 3 designated hitters. I think the answer on Martinez is no. Pitcher: several. Deserve? Yes for either Pivetta or Wacha. On the pitching side I think you could make the argument for both Pivetta and Wacha. There are 13 pitchers with 2+ WAR so far (including Ohtani, just on pitching alone) and they both clear that bar. However, they will draw a few actual relievers onto the team, and Clay Holmes and Jorge Lopez are the only relievers among those 13. I think at best one of the two Boston starters makes the team. Schreiber is the Boston reliever with the best argument, but there are so many relievers out there having a year at least that good that it’s hard to argue his selection. |
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1. John DiFool2 Posted: June 28, 2022 at 09:35 AM (#6084243)This is very difficult rooting interest for me.
C 5th (-0.1)
1B 5th (+0.2)
2B 9th (-0.9)
3B 11th(-0.4)
SS 8th (+0.5)
LF 2nd (+0.8)
CF 3rd (+1.2)
RF 3rd (+0.7)
DH 6th (+0.5)
SP 15th(-3.2)
RP 1st (+4.6)
Last year they had a dreadful team and were in the bottom third of the American League in WAA at every position except LF (7th) and CF (1st). Now it's just third base (where they have had injuries) and starting pitching. I know, "just starting pitching" is not something that gets solved overnight, and it's incredibly important. But they're 31-31 this season against all non-Yankees opponents. (Yes, they've played the Yankees 13 times already.) They are not far from putting together a team that would be a contender in any other division.
And they've got some very intriguing prospects on the cusp of getting called up, Grayson Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson in particular.
That was the story of the game last night. The Jays were finding holes, they hit 16 ground balls and got 9 hits.
They have 11 one-run losses and he's been involved in 8 of them.
His FIP is nearly 5. He stinks.
On the cusp of 12 with him being involved in 9 of them.
your hunch came to fruition pretty quickly.
Couple of rough losses to the lesser Sox, here's to hoping they get right back on track today.
5-4 is fine for a nine gone road trip. Felt worse because of a couple rough series but losses were close and playing .555 ball on the road gets the job done.
But the hard work is ahead of the team now. .555 or so over the next 14 (8-6, let’s say) would be just fine with me.
Josh Bell is on my wish list. If they stay in the race this month, they should dump Dalbec and get Bell. He looks gettable. 10M pro-rated, try to sign him for 4 or 5 years, give up a lot to get him.
Unless they plan on moving Devers to first in the future and they focus on adding talent elsewhere. Who knows what Chaim may be up to?
Casas is enormous...6'4", 250.
That would be rather exciting. He's been striking out over 12 batters per 9 IP over the last two seasons and he's still dominating in AAA.
Eovaldi
Pivetta
Sale
Winckowski
Seabold/Wacha/Hill/whoever is healthy
Houck
Whitlock
Schreiber
Bello
Strahm
Diekmann
Davis
Crawford
Sawamura/Brasier/Danish
It is a remarkable turnaround for less than two years ago, when the Red Sox lack of quality and depth in their pitching was by far the worst I'd ever seen in 40 years of being a Red Sox fan. It was remarkable how lousy the farm system was, combined with the abject lack of quality pitching on the big league roster.
2021 was patching together several average big league arms who ended up being really durable, and then Eovaldi was a stud, and Whitlock was a revelation. But the 2021 pitching staff was not deep, and only had a few guys (Whitlock, Houck) who were legit young arms for the future.
This year? The amount of pitching depth and quality young prospects is remarkable. Seabold, Crawford, Bello, Winckowski, Whitlock, and Houck are all 26 or younger. Pivetta has been ace-quality, and is only 29. A back of the bullpen that has Houck closing; Whitlock as the two-inning set up guy; Bello, Schreiber, and Seabold getting you an inning; and Crawford as a bulk innings guy; is both very good and very young. It takes guys like Strahm, Diekmann, and Davis and puts them in lower-lev innings; and it takes guys like Robles, Valdez, Danish, Brasier, and Sawamura out of most situations, period!
Now, we need a legit first baseman. Casas' injury has really prevented another young guy from upgrading the team during a competitive season.
The cavalry is coming, Whitlock makes the pen look a lot different when he gets back. Halfway through the season the Sox are on a 90 win pace. Got to find a way to start beating the AL East teams though. Can't argue with the first half, slightly better (by a game) than my highly scientific predictions of ridiculousness. Even a .500 second half gets us to 85 wins and in the new world that's a playoff possibility. Obviously Sox should be aiming higher.
I guess it's possible. Let's wait until August 4th and see how they survive this stretch. They're off to a bad start.
The American League teams' records are so oddly distributed right now. There are nine teams within five games of each other, hugging around .500. Minnesota is the best of those nine, at 47-39; Texas is the worst record of those nine, at 38-43. I mean, Baltimore is now 41-44, only 4.5 games behind Boston.
Because of the three wild card slots, Boston is going to be in the conversation to the end, I suspect, but NY and Houston are so much better than anybody else in the AL that the regular season seems pretty academic.
Right now, the race for the cellar is shaping up as I expected. The Red Sox could have a huge August that brings them back to the WC hunt, but the next 3 weeks look ugly.
I go back and forth. When I wrote the above, I was feeling like you might be right after all about the pitching (and you still may!).
Last night was fun!
1) The Red Sox have to raise their level of play against the good teams in the AL very quickly, or they will quickly fall out of playoff position; and
2) The thing is that most of the teams outside of the AL East (except for Houston) aren't very good, so even if and when the Red Sox slide back, they will always be in playoff contention, because the 3rd-best wild card team in the AL may not have to be very good. Even 85 wins may get you into the 3rd slot.
Well, the Red Sox really haven't played well in their last seven games, going 3-4 with a rotation of four rookies and a coming-back-to-Earth Pivetta. But they have knocked out seven of their toughest games left, and are still in the #1 wild card slot, because the other teams have sucked just as badly.
In turns out both #1 and #2 above are true - but that #2 is even more powerful a force than #1, keeping Boston afloat.
Eight teams are within four games of the wild card slots. There is a difference of only five in the loss column between the 3rd-best record in the AL (Boston) and the 11th-best record in the AL (Texas). None of these teams appear particularly good, and Houston and NY are miles better than everybody else...so maybe it will end of being the case that the Red Sox are an 85-win team and they end up with the 3rd-best record in the AL? I mean, right now there are only four teams in the AL on pace to win at least 85 games: NY, HOU, Boston (88), and Tampa (86). And Tampa, after an 18-10 start, is 27-30.
My one request for Boston right now? Please stop playing Dalbec. He seems like a nice guy, but he is awful. A look at his splits shows that he isn't hitting at home or on the road. He is hitting a little better against lefties, but with little power (SLG under .400 against lefties, which is sort of the point of even sticking with him). His defense is not a plus. I am assuming that the issue right now is:
1) Cordero is a butcher at 1B, so they don't like playing him there;
2) Bloom doesn't want to invest a whole lot in a solution at 1B, because Casas is the actual solution;
3) Casas' injury is the actual problem, Bloom would say - if he was healthy, he'd be playing first every day in Boston right now;
4) Give it a few more weeks, he'd say - if Casas isn't healthy, and if Dalbec doesn't hit a hot streak like he did around now last year, then I'll make a deal with some of our minor-league pitching depth like I did for Schwarber last year.
Let's just split the four games in Tampa, win one out of three in NY, and get the heck out of this first half...
I thought he was unlucky on the 2 pop ups that Lemayhew misplayed. Those balls could have been caught more easily by Judge and Hicks. Cone talked about how much better Chapman is with no one on base, and once that first flair was dropped, he suffered.
My wild stab: 3 innings, 70 pitches, 4 ER.
Edit:
I think any package probably starts with Casas or Mayer + 2 to 3 others of Bello, Duran, Yorke, Whitlock, ???? Or just Casas and Mayer?
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