Hey now, hey now now, sing This Corrosion to me?

Third Base: Rafael Devers. Deserve? YES

He’s basically been 2022 Mike Trout but at 3B. The only thing that would work against Devers is he’s in the same league as Jose Ramirez. Everyone else is as far back of these two as any other AL team is back of the Yankees right now. They will both make the team, and they will both deserve it.

This is very difficult rooting interest for me.

I wanted to mention this in the writeup but I'll put it here. The Baltimore Orioles have a good roster. It's definitely the 5th best in the AL East, but they actually have the foundation for a great team. Looking at performance by WAA on BB-Ref these are the rankings of Baltimore's players among the rest of the AL:

C 5th (-0.1)
1B 5th (+0.2)
2B 9th (-0.9)
3B 11th(-0.4)
SS 8th (+0.5)
LF 2nd (+0.8)
CF 3rd (+1.2)
RF 3rd (+0.7)
DH 6th (+0.5)
SP 15th(-3.2)
RP 1st (+4.6)

Last year they had a dreadful team and were in the bottom third of the American League in WAA at every position except LF (7th) and CF (1st). Now it's just third base (where they have had injuries) and starting pitching. I know, "just starting pitching" is not something that gets solved overnight, and it's incredibly important. But they're 31-31 this season against all non-Yankees opponents. (Yes, they've played the Yankees 13 times already.) They are not far from putting together a team that would be a contender in any other division.

Yes, and it seems like Detroit is finally putting a team together...back to 1984 power structure. Here's hoping that kicks off a decade long drought for the Yankees.

Hey now, hey now now, sing This Corrosion to me?

I ain't the sharpest tool in the shed.

I wanted to mention this in the writeup but I'll put it here. The Baltimore Orioles have a good roster. It's definitely the 5th best in the AL East, but they actually have the foundation for a great team. Looking at performance by WAA on BB-Ref these are the rankings of Baltimore's players among the rest of the AL:

C 5th (-0.1)
1B 5th (+0.2)
2B 9th (-0.9)
3B 11th(-0.4)
SS 8th (+0.5)
LF 2nd (+0.8)
CF 3rd (+1.2)
RF 3rd (+0.7)
DH 6th (+0.5)
SP 15th(-3.2)
RP 1st (+4.6)

Last year they had a dreadful team and were in the bottom third of the American League in WAA at every position except LF (7th) and CF (1st). Now it's just third base (where they have had injuries) and starting pitching. I know, "just starting pitching" is not something that gets solved overnight, and it's incredibly important. But they're 31-31 this season against all non-Yankees opponents. (Yes, they've played the Yankees 13 times already.) They are not far from putting together a team that would be a contender in any other division.

And they've got some very intriguing prospects on the cusp of getting called up, Grayson Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson in particular.

Hansel Robles is the grim reaper of slim leads.

To be fair Robles didn't get rocked. He came into a bad spot and got two ground balls that found holes. I really wanted Strahm in there last night. I get that the Jays are right-handed but Strahm is the best available reliever.

That was the story of the game last night. The Jays were finding holes, they hit 16 ground balls and got 9 hits.

To be fair Robles didn't get rocked. He came into a bad spot and got two ground balls that found holes.

That's how his grim reaper-ing has worked this year. He is not usually completely terrible by himself, but often tag-teams with another reliever (frequently Diekman). Or he gets some bad luck on batted balls. Or it's the ghost runner in extra innings. Or his defense makes an error.

They have 11 one-run losses and he's been involved in 8 of them.

Get the jab, boys. Robles and Arroyo do not belong in a pennant chase. Hey, I'm old and decrepit, but I just got my 4th shot and played hoops the next day.

He is not usually completely terrible by himself

His FIP is nearly 5. He stinks.

Hansel Robles is the grim reaper of slim leads.

DFA Robles. His 2022 salary is pocket change and the roster spot is worth more.

They have 11 one-run losses and he's been involved in 8 of them.

On the cusp of 12 with him being involved in 9 of them.

DFA Robles

yeah gotta be DFA or fenway flu IL in the next 48 hours.

As the resident Robles fan….yeah he can’t be out there any more. The reality is this team needs a few relievers. I have a hunch that one (if not both) of Whitlock and/or Sale is going to be one of those at some point. Despite getting knocked around Seabold missed a bunch of bats the other night, it might be worth seeing if his stuff plays up in a short role (e.g. Houck). I wouldn’t hate maybe taking a flyer on one of the big arms in the minors (Bello, Walter, even Mata if he’s healthy) and seeing if there is lightning in a bottle there. Right now no lead is safe with this team.

Winnable game against a crappy team. Houck should've been well rested for a 2+ inning stint. Cora can't baby him anymore.

I have a hunch that one (if not both) of Whitlock and/or Sale is going to be one of those at some point.

your hunch came to fruition pretty quickly.

Couple of rough losses to the lesser Sox, here's to hoping they get right back on track today.

You mean to the Cubs, right? The White Sox will end up with more wins than the Red Sox this year, because they get to play Detroit and KC a lot, while the Red Sox play a lot of games against 3 better teams and a slightly improved Baltimore team.

I like this Seabold guy, he was alternately dismissive and disdainful of batters. You don't see that type of mound presence much these days. The stuff was OK, but the command was beautiful.

Wow, and Winckowski was competent the other day, too. This is like the opposite of 2020...every starter we throw out there is decent.

Yep I had a brain fart there, Cap.

5-4 is fine for a nine gone road trip. Felt worse because of a couple rough series but losses were close and playing .555 ball on the road gets the job done.

But the hard work is ahead of the team now. .555 or so over the next 14 (8-6, let’s say) would be just fine with me.

I agree. They're getting breaks, from Tampa, which is nice.

Josh Bell is on my wish list. If they stay in the race this month, they should dump Dalbec and get Bell. He looks gettable. 10M pro-rated, try to sign him for 4 or 5 years, give up a lot to get him.

Unless they plan on moving Devers to first in the future and they focus on adding talent elsewhere. Who knows what Chaim may be up to?

Casas is enormous...6'4", 250.

Looks like Bello is going Wednesday if Wacha can’t.

Josh Bell is on my wish list. If they stay in the race this month, they should dump Dalbec and get Bell. He looks gettable. 10M pro-rated, try to sign him for 4 or 5 years, give up a lot to get him.

Given the season he’s having (.319/.401/.517), Bell should be in demand at the deadline, although since he’s only 29, one can argue that Nationals should keep him around for their future contending teams. However, since they haven’t extended him yet, it looks like he may be headed toward free agency. I suspect it would take a fair bit to acquire him in trade, and a lot of $$ to sign him to an extension without testing free agency. He’s a solid citizen, good locker room type, and smart enough to know that this is his only guaranteed opportunity for a big pay day.

Looks like Bello is going Wednesday if Wacha can’t.

That would be rather exciting. He's been striking out over 12 batters per 9 IP over the last two seasons and he's still dominating in AAA.

With the team saying that Whitlock will be heading back to the bullpen when he returns, and Houck seemingly staying there for the season, too...it sounds like we may be heading to something like this soon:

Eovaldi
Pivetta
Sale
Winckowski
Seabold/Wacha/Hill/whoever is healthy

Houck
Whitlock
Schreiber
Bello
Strahm
Diekmann
Davis
Crawford
Sawamura/Brasier/Danish

It is a remarkable turnaround for less than two years ago, when the Red Sox lack of quality and depth in their pitching was by far the worst I'd ever seen in 40 years of being a Red Sox fan. It was remarkable how lousy the farm system was, combined with the abject lack of quality pitching on the big league roster.

2021 was patching together several average big league arms who ended up being really durable, and then Eovaldi was a stud, and Whitlock was a revelation. But the 2021 pitching staff was not deep, and only had a few guys (Whitlock, Houck) who were legit young arms for the future.

This year? The amount of pitching depth and quality young prospects is remarkable. Seabold, Crawford, Bello, Winckowski, Whitlock, and Houck are all 26 or younger. Pivetta has been ace-quality, and is only 29. A back of the bullpen that has Houck closing; Whitlock as the two-inning set up guy; Bello, Schreiber, and Seabold getting you an inning; and Crawford as a bulk innings guy; is both very good and very young. It takes guys like Strahm, Diekmann, and Davis and puts them in lower-lev innings; and it takes guys like Robles, Valdez, Danish, Brasier, and Sawamura out of most situations, period!

Now, we need a legit first baseman. Casas' injury has really prevented another young guy from upgrading the team during a competitive season.

DFA Robles

yeah gotta be DFA or fenway flu IL in the next 48 hours.

Well it took a little more than 48 hours but he didn't pitch in the interim.

Alas, dude did a job for us last year.

The cavalry is coming, Whitlock makes the pen look a lot different when he gets back. Halfway through the season the Sox are on a 90 win pace. Got to find a way to start beating the AL East teams though. Can't argue with the first half, slightly better (by a game) than my highly scientific predictions of ridiculousness. Even a .500 second half gets us to 85 wins and in the new world that's a playoff possibility. Obviously Sox should be aiming higher.

He'll go down with my least favorite "closer" acquisitions of the last two decades: Hanrahan and Jenks.

Joel Hanrahan...World Series champion.

Joel Hanrahan...World Series champion.

So is Bobby Jenks! He got the final out, in fact.

Tyler Thornburg, Carson Smith and Andrew Bailey also have rings. Reliever acquisitions flaming out are clearly a harbinger of good luck.

Tyler Thornburg, Carson Smith and Andrew Bailey also have rings.

So does Eric Gagne.

Even a .500 second half gets us to 85 wins and in the new world that's a playoff possibility. Obviously Sox should be aiming higher.

I guess it's possible. Let's wait until August 4th and see how they survive this stretch. They're off to a bad start.

Lisa needs braces.

After watching Jackie Bradley throw the 9th inning against the Yankees, we've got to say: This 14-game stretch against Tampa and NYY, which has been circled on the calendar for a long time as the real test of whether or not the Red Sox are legit or not in 2022, has gone about as poorly as one could imagine. They've lost four of the first five, and are just don't look competitive.

The American League teams' records are so oddly distributed right now. There are nine teams within five games of each other, hugging around .500. Minnesota is the best of those nine, at 47-39; Texas is the worst record of those nine, at 38-43. I mean, Baltimore is now 41-44, only 4.5 games behind Boston.

Because of the three wild card slots, Boston is going to be in the conversation to the end, I suspect, but NY and Houston are so much better than anybody else in the AL that the regular season seems pretty academic.

I still say that Toronto has a chance, with that offense. If they can just get a little help pitching...

Right now, the race for the cellar is shaping up as I expected. The Red Sox could have a huge August that brings them back to the WC hunt, but the next 3 weeks look ugly.

Phew. One bobble made a big difference last night. Yankees now 48-1 when leading after 7. I don't believe in make-or-break games but if I did, I would consider last night's win to be one of them.

The Red Sox have a lot of those coming up, starting tonight.

Bivens has to be feeling pretty smart with this latest turn of events.

I feel the same as I always do. How about you?

I declare that a bananas split (see what I did there? Oh that’s gold!).

They have fight in them. Tonight, they play a slumping team that they've shown they're a bit better than. They have to win this series, IMO.

I feel the same as I always do. How about you?

I go back and forth. When I wrote the above, I was feeling like you might be right after all about the pitching (and you still may!).

Last night was fun!

Entering this just-ended seven-game homestand, I thought:

1) The Red Sox have to raise their level of play against the good teams in the AL very quickly, or they will quickly fall out of playoff position; and
2) The thing is that most of the teams outside of the AL East (except for Houston) aren't very good, so even if and when the Red Sox slide back, they will always be in playoff contention, because the 3rd-best wild card team in the AL may not have to be very good. Even 85 wins may get you into the 3rd slot.

Well, the Red Sox really haven't played well in their last seven games, going 3-4 with a rotation of four rookies and a coming-back-to-Earth Pivetta. But they have knocked out seven of their toughest games left, and are still in the #1 wild card slot, because the other teams have sucked just as badly.

In turns out both #1 and #2 above are true - but that #2 is even more powerful a force than #1, keeping Boston afloat.

Eight teams are within four games of the wild card slots. There is a difference of only five in the loss column between the 3rd-best record in the AL (Boston) and the 11th-best record in the AL (Texas). None of these teams appear particularly good, and Houston and NY are miles better than everybody else...so maybe it will end of being the case that the Red Sox are an 85-win team and they end up with the 3rd-best record in the AL? I mean, right now there are only four teams in the AL on pace to win at least 85 games: NY, HOU, Boston (88), and Tampa (86). And Tampa, after an 18-10 start, is 27-30.

My one request for Boston right now? Please stop playing Dalbec. He seems like a nice guy, but he is awful. A look at his splits shows that he isn't hitting at home or on the road. He is hitting a little better against lefties, but with little power (SLG under .400 against lefties, which is sort of the point of even sticking with him). His defense is not a plus. I am assuming that the issue right now is:

1) Cordero is a butcher at 1B, so they don't like playing him there;
2) Bloom doesn't want to invest a whole lot in a solution at 1B, because Casas is the actual solution;
3) Casas' injury is the actual problem, Bloom would say - if he was healthy, he'd be playing first every day in Boston right now;
4) Give it a few more weeks, he'd say - if Casas isn't healthy, and if Dalbec doesn't hit a hot streak like he did around now last year, then I'll make a deal with some of our minor-league pitching depth like I did for Schwarber last year.

Let's just split the four games in Tampa, win one out of three in NY, and get the heck out of this first half...

In understand all the reasons why it didn't happen, but man, Schwarber would have been a good guy to have on this team.

Chapman looks utterly cooked.

Chapman looks utterly cooked.

I thought he was unlucky on the 2 pop ups that Lemayhew misplayed. Those balls could have been caught more easily by Judge and Hicks. Cone talked about how much better Chapman is with no one on base, and once that first flair was dropped, he suffered.

Dalbec and Bradley should be released, and replaced with IT DOESN'T MATTER!

JBJ, Dalbec and Diekman should be fired into the sun.

48: It wasn't just that game; every stat line of his is massively off this year. 5.17 FIP, 15:18 BB/K ratio.

Oh. Well, this game, he looked ok. He topped 100. He had trouble with his control with men on base. I don't think he's too far gone. If he can come in with no men on base and throw strikes he'll be useful.

I'm not very hopeful about Sale's start tonight. I think it's telling that they're giving him his first start of the year on the road.


My wild stab: 3 innings, 70 pitches, 4 ER.

1.5 ABs in and he looks good. Yay!

5 in the books and he looks VERY good.

That was nice.

Ugh.

Some pretty awful defense the last couple of days. Feels like 2021 again.

Welp, there go the good vibes from Saturday/Sunday. It would be funny to end up with 85 wins and finish 5th.

So what would you (or maybe more to the point what wouldn't you) give up for Soto?

Edit:

I think any package probably starts with Casas or Mayer + 2 to 3 others of Bello, Duran, Yorke, Whitlock, ???? Or just Casas and Mayer?

Given Sox current management, getting Soto would almost certainly for budget reasons involve losing both Devers and Bogaerts as well as the best Sox prospects, so no thanks.

If they're gonna sign Devers long term, I would give up all the kids for Soto, and pay him.

From what we've heard about the Devers negotiations, I'm guessing he wanted a $300 million+ type deal--and that was before his great 2022. I don't think they're going to want to sign both him and Soto to super-deals. I can't see Washington wanting to take the risk that they can't sign Devers so I wouldn't guess he'd be in the deal, but if the Sox don't want to/can't sign him, maybe they deal him for prospects to add to a Soto package.

They're both the type of players you sign to 10 year deals. Proven, and young enough so that you aren't paying for their senior citizen years.